AGENDA FOR JANUARY 1986 LATIN AMERICA WARNING AND FORECAST MEETING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020043-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 15, 2013
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: January 14, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved forRelease2013/07/16 : CIA-RDP93B01478R000300020043-8
crrr SI-AT
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, DC.
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
FROM:
NIC 00218-86
14 January 1986
Assistant National Intelligence Officer for
Latin America
SUBJECT: Agenda for January 1986 Latin America
Warning and Forecast Meeting
1. The January 1986 Warning Meeting for Latin America will be held
on Wednesday, 22 January 1986, at 1015 hours in Room 7 E 32,
CIA Headquarters. Invited agencies and components should please keep
their representatives to a necessary minimum because of space limitations.
2. We intend to discuss the following countries/topics:
Haiti, El Salvador and Contadora. Contact the NIO/LA if you wish to
raise additional topics. Those making formal presentations please keep
your comments to five to ten minutes to allow for discussion with the
emphasis on key warning issues
Haiti
Tension remains high throughout Haiti following the resumption of
antigovernment demonstrations last week. Support within the government
for President Duvalier already shows signs of eroding and if the
situation deteriorates further, it could lead to a coup attempt by
old-guard Duvalierists in the cabinet or security elements. How loyal
are key unit commanders to President Duvalier? Will the troops follow
orders from their Commanders to fire on demonstrators? If Duvalier is
removed, who is the likeliest successor? Is President Duvalier now
perceived as being more vulnerable? If so, will radical leftist exiles
be tempted to try another invasion or to mount an insurgency?
(CIA/ALA - 30 minutes)
71CRET/
CL BY SIGNER
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El Salvador
President Duarte is reported to be planning to implement his
economic austerity measures all at once, sometime later this month. He
expects a strong negative reaction from organized labor, abetted by the
radical left. He is hoping that senior military leaders will not opt for
a coup d'etat even if the anticipated anti-government protests reach
serious proportions. How seriously will labor react? How much influence
has the radical left gained in this sector? Is the Communist-controlled
"May First Committee" likely to be the beneficiary of the expected
demonstrations? Will the security forces be able to cope without using
undue force, and will they continue to support the President and the
Minister of Defense? (DIA - 30 minutes)
3. Please have your clearances passed
with your attendance plans no later than noon Tuesday,
21 January.
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