1985-86 PROGRAM OF POLITICO-MILITARY SIMULATIONS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89T01156R000100200010-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2011
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: November 30, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
3nn NOV
SJU1984
MEMORANDUM FOR: Brigadier General Horace L. Russell, USAF
Director for Joint Analysis
The Joint Chiefs of Staff
SUBJECT : 1985-86 Program of Politico-Military Simulations
1. This memorandum responds to your 25 October request to
the Director of Central Intelligence for topics to be included in
the Joint Analysis Directorate's Program of Simulations for 1985-
86.
2. Attached are five suggested politico-military topics
which I believe merit consideration for this program. The
emphasis, you will note, is on crises which could arise in the
Mediterranean, Near Eastern and South Asian regions with a
potential clash of US and Soviet interests inherent in each
scenario. In addition to these suggestions, I call your
attention to a sixth simulation topic being developed by the
Defense Intelligence Agency in collaboration with our Office of
East Asian Analysis. The subject is the effect on the stability
of the Philippine government of an expanded insurgency and the
death or incapacitation of President Marcos. I ex ect this
suggestion will come to you through DIA channels.
3. In closing, I want to thank you for the opportunity to
propose topics appropriate for this program. Should you see fit
to solicit our support in future years I am sure we can provide
an expanded agenda of subjects designed to challenge is
of all who participate in these important exercises.
bert M. es
Chairman, Naonal Intl' igence Council
Attachment:
As stated
CLBY SIGNER
DECL OADR
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SECRET
Soviets in Afghanistan
Timeframe: 1985-86
Region: USSR, South Asia, and Persian Gulf
Scenario:
1. A massive influx of Soviet forces into Afghanistan with
the announced purpose of quelling the insurgency.
2. Moscow issues a diplomatic and public warning to
Pakistan and Iran to halt their support to the Afghan insurgents
and initiates small scale raids along the Pakistani and Iranian
borders with ground and air units.
3. India provides strong public support for the Soviets and
undertakes large-scale exercises along the Pakistanti border.
Problem:
Invoking its mutual defense pact with the United States,
Islamabad requests immediate US material, diplomatic, and
military support; representatives of the Iranian Government
secretly approach the United States for covert support. What
should be the US policy objectives and actions in meeting the
Soviet threat and dealing effectively with Pakistan, Iran and
India?
SECRET
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