THE 1958 ANNUAL ESTIMATES POLITICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC

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September 3, 1957
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET THE 1958 ANNUAL ESTIMATES POLITICAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION OF THE SONO-SOVIET BLOC REVISED '3 SEPT 1957 50X1 -HUM 1 1 50X1 -HUM Prepared by Air Research Division Library of Congress Washington 25, D. C. SECRET 50X1 -HUM Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET 4.195DAYLULUINDLI 4 4. DA1 :.1 I vi k.1%;faS Demographic Composition ,^mA 11^Ma0suAphir Composition of THE 5110-SOVIET BLOC (Revised) 3 September 1957 Prepared Under the Direction ? Chief of Staff, USAF Directorate of Intelligence Deputy Director for Targets Washington, D. C. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET FOREWORD Estimates,The 1958 Annual here presented, is a revision of the fourth edition of a series of analyses of the political and demographic composition of Com- munist-ruled countries. A summary of estimates which is part of ARD research during the year 1956-57 and historical changes noted during that time, it also includes certain revisions and adjustments necessitated by new data received or evaluated since the publication of the original edition on 1 May 1957. An attempt has been made to initiate a system of rating the relative accuracy of estimates or groups of estimates, and this system, presently employed only in estimates of urban population, will be refined and extended in subsequent editions. The volume of new data relating both to the current period and the past has increased tremendously during the past year, although the quality of the mater- ial is highly variable--both from country to country and topic to topic. The present edition, for the first time, encompasses the entire Sino-Soviet Bloc, having been expanded to include the Korean People's Demo- cratic Republic (North Korea), the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (North Vietnam), and the Mongolian People's Republic (Outer Mongolia). Available data relating to these newly included areas are incomplete, however, and in many cases the material presented is limited to the crudest estimates, This volume, as revised, also includes an analysis of the initial effects of the program of economic decentralization, as well as certain adjustments occasioned by new or revised data appearing in the recently received statistical hahd- books Narodnoye khozyaystvo RSFSR, Narodne gospodar- stvo Ukrainskoi RSR, and the 1956 supplement to Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR. Additional material dealing with the structure and distribution of the population of the USSR and of ethnic groups within the Soviet Union is anticipated, and further adjust- ments will be prepared for inclusion in subsequent editions. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 ? Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET TABLE OF CONTENTS Part One. The Sino-Soviet Bloc The Sino-Soviet Bloc Political A. Part Two. The USSR The Communist Party 1. Growth 2. Distribution 3. Composition 4. Organization B. The Komsomol 1. Growth C. Government 1. The USSR Control Force 2. Trends in Administration 3. Government Control Centers H. Population and Manpower A. Total Population 1. Variations in Soviet Policies on Statistics 2. Total Population: 1958 3. Changes in Total Population: 1913-61 4. Geographic Distribution of USSR Population B. Urban-Rural Population 1. Total Urban Population 2. Urban Population Ranges 3. Republic Distribution and Rate of Growth 1+. Population of Cities 5. Rural Population 6. Population Density C. Age-Sex Structure 1. 1958 Age-Sex Structure 2. Problem of Enumeration D. Trends in Vital Rates E. Ethnic Composition 1. Ethnic Groups 2. Dynamics of Soviet Nationality Distribution F. Labor Force 1. The "Gainfully Occupied" Population 2. Categories of Gainful Employment 3. Reported Data on "Employed Persons" 1+, The Concepts of Gainfully Occupied and Employed Persons SECRET 1 5. 5 5 5.7 11 12 12 52 52 52 56 59 62 77 79 80 81 83 85 85 86 90 92 92 94 99 99 100 101 106 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two II continued SECRET 5. Distribution of Gainfully Occupied Population by Union Republics 6. Trends in Main Working Ages 7. Workers and Employees 8. Specialists Urban Living Space in the Soviet Union 1. Urban Housing and the Growth of Urban Population 2. Large Cities Part Three. The Asian Bloc The People's Republic of China A. The Communist Party 1. Growth 2. Geographic Distribution of the Party 3. Social Composition 4. Occupational Composition 5. Age-Sex Structure 6. Party Organization 7. Party Trends 8. The Communist Party Youth League B. Government 1. Central Government 2. Provincial Government 3. Local Government 1+. Government Control Centers C. Political Economy 1. Agriculture 2. Industry 3. Consumer Industry and Trade D. Population and Manpower 1. Size 2. Migration 3. Distribution 4, Urban Population 59 Age-Sex Structure 6. Ethnic Composition 7. Labor Force II. The Korean People's Democratic Republic (North Korea) Ill. The Democratic Republic of Vietnam (North Vietnam) IV. The Mongolian People's Republic (Outer Mongolia) ii SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A ?proved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 109 110 112 125 129 129 132 133 133 133 135 118 13b 139 140 141 142 143 144 146 146 147 150 150 151 153 154 154 155 156 158 162 165 165 173 176 177 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Co 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Page Part Four. The Soviet Satellite Bloc General A. Population B. Labor Force 179 179 180 II. Albania 182 III. Bulgaria 184 IV. Czechoslovakia 186 V. East Germany 190 VI. Hungary 1914- VII. Poland 197 VIII, Rumania 201 Appendix Tables Number 1-1 Population Growth of the Sino-Soviet Bloc: 1958-62 1 1-2 Population of Sino-Soviet Bloc: 1958-62 2 1-3 Urban-Rural Distribution of Population in the Sino-Soviet Bloc: 1958 3 1-1+ Distribution of Workers and Employees in the Sino-Soviet Bloc: 1958 2-1 Growth of the USSR Communist Party: 1939-1958 6 2-2 Estimated Distribution of the USSR Communist Party by Major Adminis- trative Divisions: 1958 2-3 Estimated Level of Education of USSR Communist Party Membership: 1958 2-4 Estimated Distribution of Communists in Armed Forces and MVD Troops by Admin- istrative Division: 1949, 1952, 1954, 1956 10 2-5 Growth of the USSR Komsomol: 1939-1958 13 2-6 Estimated Composition of the USSR Control Force: 1958 15 2-7 Estimated Distribution of the USSR Control Force, by 'Administrative Division: 1958 16 2-8 The Government Control Force: 1958 17 2-9 The Military Control Force: 1958 19 2-10 The MVD and KGB Control Force: 1958 21 2-11 The Economic Control Force, by Occupa- tional Category: 1958 22 iii SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Co .y Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043Ron74nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Flaet, Tables (continued) 2-12 Additional Control Functions of Selected Government Control Centers 49 2-13 USSR Major and Alternate Government Control Centers by Administration Division: 1940, 1958 50 2-14 Changes in USSR Population: 1913-61 59 2-15 Distribution of USSR Population by Major Area: 1939/40, 1955, 1958 65 2-16 Average Annual Growth of USSR Population, by Major Administrative Division: 1939/40-55 and 1955-58 65 2-17 Population of the USSR by Major Adminis- trative Division: 1939/40, 1955, and 1958 67 2-18 Total Population Changes 1897-1926, 1926-39, and 1939-55 70 2-19 Summary of Redistribution of USSR Population Within Unoccupied ?Area: 1939-55 73 2-20 Growth of Urban Population in the USSR: 1926-58 76 2-21 Changes in USSR Urban Population Ranges: 1926, 1939, 1956 78 2-22 Estimated Urban-Rural Distribution of USSR Population,by Republic: 1958 78 2-23 Estimated Changes of USSR Urban Population, by Republic: 1939/40-1958 80 244 Estimated Changes in USSR Rural Population, by Republic: 1939/40-1958 82 2-25 Population Outside Major Urban Areas of the USSR, by Major Administrative Division: 1958 84 2-26 Age-Sex Structure of the USSR: 1958 85 2-27 Age Composition of the Soviet Population: 1 January 1956 88 2-28 Changes in Age Composition of the Soviet Population: 1940-56 90 2-29 Birth and Death Rates and New Growth of USSR Population: 1913-56 91 2-30 Ethnic Composition of the USSR: 1958 93 2-31 Distribution of Ethnic Groups by Union Republic: 1958 97 2-32 The Gainfully Occupied Population of the USSR: 1958 99 2-33 Categories of Gainful Employment: 1 January 1958 100 2-54 Distribution of Population Employed in Productive and Nonproductive Branches of the USSR National Economy 104 2-35 Distribution of the Population Employed in the USSR National Economy, by Branches 107 2-36 Estimated Distribution of the "Gainfully Occupied" Population by Union Republic: 1 January 1958 110 iv SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R00240no7nnng_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Tables continued SECRET 2-37 Projected USSR Population in Working Ages (15-54): 1955-75 111 2-38 Comparison of USSR and U. S. Projected Populations (Males) in Prime Military Ages (20-51+): 1955-70 112 2-39 Workers and Employees in the USSR: 1541-61 113 2-40 Distribution and Growth of Workers and Employees in the USSR: 1940, 1950, 1958 115 241 Industrial Workers and Employees in the USSR: 1940, 1950, 1958 117 2-42 Industrial Workers and Employees in the RSFSR: 1940, 1950, 1958 118 2-43 Distribution of Workers and Employees by Sectors of Employment: 1940-58 120 2.44 Changes in Sectors of Employment: 19)40-58 121 2-45 Increases in Branches of Soviet Industry: 1940-58 123 2-46 Workers and Employees by Branches of Industry: 1940, 1955, 1958 124 2-47 Specialists in the USSR: 1941-61 126 2-48 Specialists with Higher Education: 1541, 1955, 1958 128 2-49 Specialists with Secondary Education: 191+1, 1955, 1958 130 2-50 Urban Housing: 1923-61 131 3-1 Growth of the Chinese Communist Party: 1921-58 133 3-2 Increase in Party Membership per 1,000 Total and Adult Populations: 1950-58 131+ 3-3 Estimated Distribution of Chinese Com- munist Party Membership by Adminis- trative Division: 1958 136 3-4 Estimated Urban-Rural Distribution of Civilian Communist Party Members by Administrative Division: 1958 137 3-5 Estimated Social Composition of the Chinese Communist Party: 1958 138 3-6 Estimated Occupational Composition of the Chinese Communist Party: 1958 138 3-7 Estimated Age Composition of the Chinese Communist Party: 1958 140 3-8 Summary of Major and Alternate Govern- ment Control Centers of the People's Republic of China: 1958 148 3-9 Estimated Total Population of the People's Republic of China: 1953, 1958-62 155 3-10 Provincial and Regional Distribution of Population of the People's Republic of China: 1958 157 3-11 Estimated Growth of Urban Population in the People's Republic of China: 1953, 1958-62 158 3-12 Estimated Urban-Rural Distribution of Provincial Populations: 1958 160 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Co .y Ap roved for Release SECRET 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-010R00240oo7onng_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Paae. Tables continued 3-13 Estimated Age-Sex Structure of the People's Republic of China: 1958 164 3-14 Ethnic Composition of the People's Republic of China: 1958 166 3-15 Potential Working Ages (15-59) of the Chinese Population: 1958 167 3-16 Rough Distribution of Urban Wage and Salary Earners in the People's Republic of China 170 3-17 Age Distribution of Wage and Salary Earners of the People's Republic of China 171 3-18 Regional Distribution of Wage and Salary Earners of the People's Republic of China 172 3-19 Estimated Distribution of the North Korean Population, by Provinces: 1958 174 3-20 Population of Selected Cities of North Korea 174 4-1 Soviet Satellite Bloc: Summary of Estimated Total Population: 1958 and 1962 179 4-2 Soviet Satellite Bloc: Summary of Estimated Urban Population: 1958 180 4-3 Soviet Satellite Bloc: Estimated Distribution of Urban Population: 1958 181 14-1+ Soviet Satellite Bloc: Summary of Esti- mated Labor Forces of Satellite Countries: 1958 181 4-6 Albania: Development of Population: 1415-1962 182 4-6 Albania: Cities and Towns with Estimated Populations of 10,000 and Above: 1958 182 4-7 Albania: Estimated Distribution of Urban Population: 1958 183 14-8 Bulgaria: Development of Population: 1946-1962 184 4-$.9? Bulgaria: Estimated Distribution of Urban Population: 1958 184 4-10 Bulgaria: Cities and Towns with Estimated Populations of 10,000 and Above: 1958 185 4-11 Czechoslovakia: Development of Population: 1547-1958 186 4-12 Czechoslovakia: Estimated Distribution of Urban Population: 1958 187 4-13 Czechoslovakia: Cities and Towns with Estimated Populations of 10,000 and Above: 1958 188 li-ilf? East Germany: Development of Population: 1946-1958 190 1+-15 East Germany: Estimated Distribution of Urban Population: 1958 190 4-.16 East Germany: Cities and Towns with Esti- mated Populations of 10,000 and Above: 1958 191 4-17 Hungary: Development of Population: 1949-1958 194 vi SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043Rnn94nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Figures 2-5 2-6 0_4 )-1 Page (continued) Organization of the Council of National 1+2 Economy (Sovnarkhoz) of the Gruzinskaya SSR Industrial Subordination in the USSR: 1957 43 Composition of the State Council of the PAnpliz2q Republic of China: April 1957 1411- vi SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Page "fables (continued) 4-18 Hungary: Estimated Distribution of Urban 0 Population: 1958 154. 4-19 Hungary: Cities and Towns with Estimated Populations of 10,000 and Above: 1958 195 4-20? Poland: Development of Population: 1946-1958 197 4-21 Poland: Estimated Distribution of Urban Population: 1958 198 4-22 Poland: Cities and Towns with Estimated Populations of 10,000 and Above: 1958 198 h_01 Rumania: Development of Population: 1948-1958 201 11-24 Rumania: Estimated Distribution of Urban Population: 1958 201 4-25 Rumania: Cities and Towns with Estimated Populations of 10,000 and Above: 1958 202 A-1 Major and Alternate Government Control Centers of the USSR: 1940, 1958 204. A-2 Estimated Distribution of the USSR Com- munist Party by Administrative Division: 1958 225 A-3 Data on Selected Regional Economic Councils 230 A-4- Distribution of USSR Population by Adminis- trative Division: 1939/40, 1955, 1958 238 A-5 Redistribution of USSR Population within Unoccupied Area: 1939-55 247 A-6 Estimated Urban-Rural Distribution of the USSR Population by Administrative Division: 1958 250 A-7 Population Outside Major Urban Areas of the USSR, by Administrative bivision. 1958 255 A-8 1958TOu1ation'of USSR Cities and 1940 Population of 3eiected Cities 260 A-9 Total Floor Space in Selected Large Cities of the USSR 24. A-10 Major and Alternate Government Control . Centers of the People's Republic of China: 1958 276 A-11 Population of Selected Cities of the People's Republic of China 281 Figures 2-1 Reorganization of the USSR Council of Ministers 31 2-2 Reorganization of the Russian SFSR Council of Ministers 33 2-3 Reorganization of the Republican Councils of Ministers in the USSR: 1957 /f? 2-4 Distribution of Sovnarkhozy (Regional Economic Councils) by Administrative- Territorial Diviseion: 1957 37 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? ? vii SECRET @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA---.111111111111.1.1111-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET PART ONE. THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC The Sino Soviet Bloc, comprising the Communist-ruled countries of the world, is a vast domain stretching from Central Europe to the Pacific Ocean and from the North Pole to the shores of the South China Sea. It covers more than 25 per cent of the total land area of the earth and inc ludes about 35 per cent of the world's populatinn. The 1958 population of this bloc of Communist states is estimated to total more than 950 million (see Table 1-1). By Region Table 1-1 POPULATION GROWTH OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC: 1958-62 Population (in thousands) Increase 1958,, 1962 Absolute Per Cent USSR and East European satellites 303,098 320,650 17,552 5.8 China and Asiatic satellites 649,050 _aall_ 39,180 6.0 TOTAL 952,148 1,008,880 56,732 5,9 1962 the population will have increasecl about 6 per cent, or 57 mil- lion, approximately the same rate of increase as for the world popu- lation during the period 1950-51+. About 69 per cent of the increase is expected to occur in the Asiatic sector. The USSR and most of the East European satellites are areas of comparatively low birth and death rates whereas high birth and death rates prevail in China and the Asiatic satellites. The population increase in the Asiatic countries is expected to result primarily from a declining death rate, since fertility is expected to remain high despite recent Chinese attempts to institute birth control measures. In the USSR and the East European satellites, death rates have decreased tremendously since World War II--by more than 50 per cent in the USSR and by almost as much in some of the satellite countries, but as a result of a lower birth rate, population will increase at a slower rate than in Asia. In terms of population, the People's Republic of China dominates the bloc. Here are found an estimated 623 million. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A 1 SECRET proved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part One persons, or more than 65 per cent of the total population. The population of the USSR is estimated at 206.3 million or 21.6 per cent of the total. The seven countries comprising the East European satellites contain about 97 million persons, or 10.2 per cent of the total, with the Asiatic satellites containing or 2.7 per cent of the total (see Table 1-2). visr% r DI.? r. No T,klit% 1-2 IcLwaA, POPULATION OF THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC: 195862 Country.. USSR East European Satellites Albania Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland Rumania China than 26.05 million, 1958 1962 Population Per Cent Population Per Cent n thousands of Total (in thousands)of Total 206,a00 2,2 2116)12 21.8 96.798 10.2 101,150 10.0 1,483 0.2 1,662 0.2 7,725 0.8 8,101+ 0.8 13,410 1.1+ 13,926 1.4 17,598 1.9 17,163 1.7 9,861 1.0 10,300 1.0 28,706 3.0 30,991 3.0 18,015 1.9 19,001+ 1.9 623,000 65.4 661,200 65.5 Asiatic Satellites 26,050 2.7 27,030 2.12 Outer Mongolia 1,050 0.1 1,130 0.1 North Vietnam 13,000 1.1+ 13,300 1.3 North Korea 12,000 1.3 12,600 1.3 TOTAL 952,1 48 100.0 1,008430 100.0 This vast complex, and particularly the Asiatic sector, is primarily agricultural: of the total population 76.11- per cent live in rural areas (see Table 1-3). It is necessary, however, to point out certain distinctions between the two chief components. The USSR and the East European satellites form a comparatively modern, urban- ized technological society in which industrial production plays a large role. China and the Asiatic satellites are predominantly agri- cultural countries, even though industrialization is increasing under the Communists. 2 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part One SECRET Table 1-3 URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC: 1958 Area Sino-Soviet Bloc USSR East European Satellites Albania Bulgaria Czechoslovakia East Germany Hungary Poland 28,706 13,000 15,706 45.3 Rumania 18,015 5,915 12,100 32.8 China 623,000 85,000 538,000 13.6 PopylatiOnn Per Cent Total (in thousands) , Urban of Population Urban Rural Total 952,148 21-1-,585 727,563 ,29.6 206,300 90,500 115,800 43.9 96,798 46,185 50,613 47.7 1,483 350 1,133 23.6 7,725 2,686 5,039 31-1-.8 13,410 7,510 5,900 56.0 17,598 12,791 4,807 72.7 9,861 3,933 5,928 39.9 Asiatic Satellites 26,050 2,900 21,150 11.1 Outer Mongolia 1,050 200 850 19.0 North Vietnam 13,000 900 12,100 6.9 North Korea 12,000 1,800 10,200 15.0 The most highly urbanized section of the Sino-Soviet Bloc is the region of the East European satellites, where almost 48 per cent of the population live in cities and towns. Even among these countries, however, there is considerable variation, ranging from 23.6 per cent in Albania to 72.7 per cent in East Germany. By 1962, it is estimated that at least one-half of the population will live in urban areas. The USSR, straddling 'Europe and Asia, is now almost as highly urbanized as the East European satellites, with almost 44. per cent of its population living in cities and towns. The Soviet urban population is growing steadily at the expense of the rural, chiefly through a continuous in-migration from the countryside to the city. Of the reported 17 million urban increase during the Fifth Five-Year Plan (1951-55), 9 million were rural in-migrants. Although increasing industrialization will help maintain a steady flow of in-migrants, the number coming to urban areas has already begun to decline from the peak period of 1951-55. 3 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Ar Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part One In the Asiatic sector, urban definitions are somewhat tenu- ous and the rate of urbanization continues to increase slowly, par- ticularly since China, which contains almost 97 per cent of the urban population, is currently following a policy designed to control the unrestricted flow of population from the countryside to the cities. Only 13.5 per cent of the total population of the Asiatic sector live in cities or towns, making it one of the least urbanized areas in the world. The labor force in the Sino-Soviet Bloc consists chiefly of workers and employees (i.e., wage and salary earners) and farmers, (both individual and collective) Workers and employees are the more highly skilled component; they are essentially urban in character, but include a small group living in rural areas who are employed in agriculture and various services. Table 14 DISTRIBUTION QF WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES IN THE SIK-SOVIET BLOC: 1958 , Number Per Cent Per Cent of atigift'a Iln.ibutmdil 0 T9tal 111:11F12.22sidlii9/1 USSR 51,250 50.1 56.6 East European satellites 25,070 g+.5 5463 Asiatic satellites 1,000 1.0 34 China.Qa.. .lisi. TOTAL 102,320 100.0 45.6 About 50 per cent are concentrated in the.USSR (see Table 1-4). In the USSR and the East European satellites, workers and employees comprise more than one-half the .urban population; In China and the Asiwtic satellites they comprise 29.4 and 34.5 per cent, respectively. L. SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400o2nomn Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET PART TWO. THE USSR POLITICAL A. The Communist Party, 1. Growth By 1 January 1958 the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) will total an estimated 7,458,000. Thirty-six of every 1,000 persons or 56 of every 1,000 adults will be Party members (see Table 1-1). Since 1939 the rate of growth of the CPSU has been uneven, reflecting the adjustments of Soviet leadership to changing foreign and domestic situations. The greatest increase in membership occur- red during the early months of World War II; by the end of the war the Party had increased by 1.8 million, an average annual rate of 10 per cent since 1940. From 15Lq to 1952, during the period of postwar recovery and reconstruction and a deepening political crisis within the aging Stalinist regime, the annual rate of growth de- creased to about 2 per cent. In the period of consolidation of power following Stalin's death, the rate further decreased to one per cent and since 1956 has remained nearly constant. The number of Communists per 1,000 total and adult popula- tions has decreased slightly since 1952, as the rate of Party growth has fallen behind the natural increase in the population. Since 1956 quantitative growth in the Party ranks has been deemphasized and given a role of relatively minor importance. The Party leader- ship has assigned priority importance to qualitative growth in Party membership, calling on all Party organizations to admit to member- ship only the most advanced workers, agriculturalists, and intellec- tuals. It is estimated, therefore, that the number of Communists per 1,000 total and adult populationswi 1 I remain constant through 1957, and may even decrease slightly if current policy is continued. 2. Distribution Note: Following the Twentieth Party Congress in 1956, data were published for the first time since 1939 which permits the application of a single method (the extrapo- lation of delegate listings) to determine the distribution of Party members and candidates for all administrative divisions.. ThArAforAl each entry in the tablas which follow is more accurate and the conclusions drawn from the entries are considered more reliable than in previous ed- itions of The Annual Estimates. 5 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 t. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political Table 2-1 GROWTH OF THE USSR COMMUNIST PARTY,: 1939-1958 , Candidates Members per Per Cent Members 1,000 Adult Total of Total b per 1,000 Population (Age Year Membershjpa Menil..?__P.--)i Populationc 18 and Above) 1939 2,306,973 34.37 14 23 1940 3,399,975 41.68 17 30 1947 6,300,000 na na na 1952 6,882,145 12.63 37 58 1954 7,050,000 6.92 37 57 1956 7,215,505 5.82 36 56 1958 7,458,000 na 36 56 All ? All figures reported, except 1951+ and 1958. For discussion of 1954 estimate, see The 1957 Annual Estimates. The 1958 figure is based on total civilian membership reported at Party Congresses of the 15 union republics; the 1957 estimates of Party membership in the armed forces and MVD troops by union republics were kept constgnt. All figures reported, except 1954. For discussion of 1954 estimate, see Annual cBased on ARD estimates of total and adult population. 1 The distribution of the Party among the various administra- tive divisions is extremely irregular, and the variations in the incidence of Party membership can be considered one of the useful indices for assessing the significance of an area. The geographic distribution of Party membership reflects the Kremlin's evaluation of the importance of various groups in Soviet society and a desire to place Communists in what it considers strategically important occupations. Party membership, therefore, is concentrated in areas which are Highly urbanized and? industrialized or which contain large mili- tary contingents. It is estimated that Party incidence is six times as high in urban centers as inrural areas, and is significantly higher in highly industrialized areas (Kiyevskaya Oblast, Ukrainskaya SSR) than ih predominantly agricultural areas (Sumskaya Oblast, Ukrain- skaya SSR). Party incidence is also much higher in areas in which there are relatively large military contingents (Murmanskaya Oblast, RSFSR). National minorities, with the striking exception of the 6 SECRET momilimmi Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political Transcaucasian ethnic groups, have a much lower participation than have Great Russians. Thirty-six of every 1,000 persons in the So- viet Union are members of the Communist Party; 56 of every 1,000 age 18 and above are Party members. Party membership within the union republics varies from a high of 81+ per 1,000 adult population in the Gruzinskaya SSR to a low of 26 in the Litovskaya SSR (see Table 2-2). Party membership among the ?b lasts, krays, and ASSR's varies from a high o185 per 1,000 total population in Murmanskaya Oblast to a low of 9 per 1,000 in Ternopolskaya 0blast5 in the Ukrainskaya SSR (see Table A-2, Appendix, and Map 1). 3. Composition During the past year the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, theoretically a "union ... of people of the working class, the work- ing peasantry, and the working intelligentsia," has continued to develop as an elite group dominated by a large bureaucratic appa- ratus intent upon maintaining its monopoly of political power. , A re-analysis of data dealing with the full-time employees of the Party who comprise the staff of the Party apparatus has necessitated an upward revision of previous estimates. It is esti- mated that by January 1958 the Party bureaucracy will total approxi- mately 440,000, or almost 6 per cent of total Party membership. Of this to*lmore than one-third will appear on the nomenclature or "patronage list" of the USSR Party Secretariat, 10 per cent on those of the republics, and almost 60 per cent on those of the local Party committees. One of the principal means by which the Party bureaucracy attempts to assure the continuation of its dominant status in the Soviet power structure is by staffing all important positions with Communists through placement and highly selective recruitment of Party members in certain occupations. Since Soviet society places a high premium upon education, the more highly educated an indi- vidual, the more likely that he is a Party member. Data:published during and following the XX Party Congress reveal that Par.ty members with a higher or incomplete higher education, constituting 15 per cent-of Party membership-(see Table 2-3), represent more than 1+5' per cent of all such persons in the USSR .More-than 33 percent of Soviet scientists, engineers, and technicians are Communists. It is felt that the proportion of Party members with specialized and higher educations will continue to increase significantly. 7 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A .proved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET Table 2-2 L. Political ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF THE USSR COMMUNIST PARTY BY MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISIONS: 1958 Administrative Division Russian SFSR Northwestern Region Central Industrial Region Volga Region Southeastern Region Urals Region West Siberian Region East Siberian Region Far Eastern Region Ukrainskaya SSR Belorusskaya SSR Uzbekskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Litovskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR Abroad TOTAL ? Total Membershipa (in thousands) 4,8E_38 586 2,041+ 376 531 398 42 267 1,086 197 168 281 212 146 146 1+5" 67 53 43 78 46 61 7,458 Number per 1,000 Tot4 .Enpti 1J Number per 1,000 Adult Population cAgp 18 and Above) 1+2 65 62 na 45 43 33 32 32 35 58 26 21+ 22 32 52 17 16 33 27 23 46 36 36 na na na na na na na na 40 37 140 59 81+ 72 26 28 144 )46 . 1+2 83 55 )41+ na . 36 .56 -----5Ts'ed upon delegate listings extrapolated from reported and calculated norms of representation at republic Party Congresses in 19514- gnd 1956 and the All-Union Party Congress in February 1956. Based upon ARD estimates for the legally resident total and adult populations. 8 SECRET 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R0027 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A proved for Release Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two Table 2-3 I. Political ESTIMATED LEVEL OF EDUCATION OF USSR COMMUNIST PARTY MEMBERSHIP: 1958 Level of Education Higher Complete Incomplete Secondary Complete Specialized Incomplete Lower TOTAL Membershipa (in thousands). Total Membership Per Cent of 1,112 842 270 3,911 1,675 861 2,236 _2414-12._ 7,458 15 11 14- 52 22 12 30 al_ loo Based on projections of data reported by The Mandate Commission at the XX Party Congress, February 1956. Further research also indicates that 812,000 Communists, or slightly more than 11 per cent of total Party membership, we serving in the armed forces and MVD troops (see Table 2-1) in 1956. This figure represents a reported decline of about 145,000 from a high believed to have been reached during the first years of the Korean War. Since 1946, however, it is believed that Communists in the military have continued to represent about 19 or 20 per cent of total military personnel. Although details of the social compo- sition of Communists serving in the military are not known, reported data dealing with the pre-World Wei' II period indicate that virtual- ly all officers, almost 50 per cent of the NCO's, and 10 per cent of the lower grades are Party members. It is felt that the 1956 incidence of Party membership in the military and possibly also the 1956 total in the military will be applicable to the 1958 situation. The estimated postwar distribution of Party members serving in the armed forces and MVD troops (see Table 2-4) is believed to reflect the disposition and internal movement of military personnel. Generally speaking, the number of troops in the western border areas such as the Litovskaya SSR declined steadily during the 1549-56 "period, while the number in interior areas increased. Perhaps the most striking example is in Moskovskaya.Oblast where the number of Communists in the military, and probably the military itself, in- 9 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 A, Part Two SECRET Table 24 1. Political ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF COMMUNISTS IN ARMED FORCES AND MVD TROOPS BY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION: 1949, 1952, 1954, 1956a (Numbers in Thousands) Administrative Division Russ* SFSR and abroad Moskovskaya 0. Leningradskaya O. Sverdlovskaya O. Chelyabinskaya O. Kemerovskaya O. Ukrainskaya SSR Kiyevskaya O. Krymskaya O. Voroshilovgradskaya O. Belorusskaya SSR Uzbekskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Aze*ydzhanskaya SSR Litoyskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Kirgiz$kaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR Karelo-Finskaya SSR' TOTAL 583.8 na na na na na 57.7 na na na 71.7 2.3 1.3 16.9 .11.2 20.8 11.1 7.2 12.5 .P+.6 7.3 192 622.0 (30.5) (76.5) (17.2) (1+.1) irs (5.3) 113.2 (38.1) na na 45.4 11.2 .2.9 k?15.5 ? 114.3 10.7 7.9 28.1 0.8 5.9 6.3 14.0 ? 9.5 q4c) 560.5 (133.9) na na na na 125,2 (26.?) (26.1) (2.2) 37,14 10.1 3.9 21.3 15.9 9.5 3.0 25.7 2.9 6. 5.4 13.4 9.0 5.5__ 1956 518.,9 057.0) (16.0) (9.2) (7)4 123.2 (21.7) (30.1) (3.8) 36.7 10.2 11.6 17.5 19.4 7.5 3.9 22.0 3.7 7.5 4?7 12.0 8.4 1+.9 846.2 913.6 855.2 812.1 aAll estimates are residuals obtained by subtracting reported Party membership from total Party membership estimated on the basis of extrapolations of delegate listings. bTransferred to Russian SFSR and downgraded to the Karelskaya ASSR during 1956. creased 340 per cent in the two years immediately following Stalin's death and has decreased only slightly since that time. Consider- ing the significant fluctuations in the distribution during the 1949-56 period, it is believed that the 1956 figures can be used only as an indication of the possible distribution for January 1958. 10 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 4. I. Political Although the function and basic organization of the Communist Party apparatus have remained essentially unaltered during the past year, by the end of 1956 a trend toward a decrease in intra-Party "democracy" had developed. The trend is most noticeable within the lower echelons of the Party, where the responsibilities of local Party officials are being increased in conjunction with the "decentral- ization" of the economic apparatus (see Section C.2. Trends in Ad- ministration). Since Stalin's death in 1953, and particularly since the XX Party Congress in February 1956, the Party press has featured numerous calls for greater exercise of intra-Party democracy. Ap- parently some members of the Party's rank-and-file accepted this call at face value and leveled strong criticism at lower- and middle- rank officials. Some of these contained implied criticism of the highest Party officials and the basic tenets of Communist ideology. Even before the Polish and Hungarian trouble, however, it became apparent that the call for greater freedom of discussion was meant to apply only to particular aspects of certain subjects, and many of those who had criticized most frankly were censured for violat- ing the principle of "democratic-centralism."1 The end result has been that although public discussion continues, it has again been limited to details or implementation of plans or "theses," rather than to the rationale behind the proposals af top leadership. '.86incident with theii.estriction on baic.discussions, Party leaders lengthened the periods between the general membership meet- ings, thereby altering one of the weakest tenets of democratic- centralism--"the periodic accountability of Party bodies to their Party organizations." Party officials, particularly in the'lower Party units, are thus less subject to criticism from the rank-and- file. In general, Party officials in republics, ()blasts, kray okrugs, cities, and rayons now report to their "constituents" once every two years rather than every 12 or 18 months; in the Ukraine, Belorussia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, republic officials now ? in we official definition of "democratic-centralism" the most important clauses are: 1) "the decisions of higher (Party) bodies are unconditionally binding upon lower ones"; and 2) "strict Party discipline and subordination of the minority to the majority." 11 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political report only once every four years.1 The responsibility of these officials to report to the higher echelons on every occasion remains, however. And the appointments of all officials must be confirmed and in most cases initiated by the USSR Party officials. At the lowest level of the Party structure, the Party Prima- ry Organization (formerly cell), changes have been introduced which lead to the compartmentalization of membership, thereby decreasing the possibility of any "united" action oh a significant scale by the rank-and-file. In enterprises with more than 300 members, the primary organization, as such, has been abolished, and separate shop, brigade, or similar Primary Organizations have been established. These smaller organizations no? longer elect representatives to an enterprise Party unit but are supervised by Party professionals at the plant who are appointed by the higher echelons of the Party apparatus. Primary Organizations with less than 300 but more than 50 members (formerly 100) are now subdivided into shop, brigade, or similar units; and are administered by an elected bureau which must be confirmed by the. Party apparatus. 0 While the long-range significance of these changes is de- batable, the immediate consequences are obvious. The initial "loosening of the bonds" resulted in unforeseen difficulties and was followed by a significant decrease in "intra-Party" democracy as far as general Party membership was concerned. Local Party officials, however, have gained greater freedom of action vis-a- vis the general membership. The March 1957 pronouncements of First Secretary Khrushchev on governmental reorganization, when implement- ed, will place even greater demands upon the capacities of local Party officials without, however, significantly increasing their freedom of action vis-a-vis the Kremlin. B. The Komsomol 1. Growth By 1 January 1958 Komsomol membership will total an estimated 18 million. Eighty-seven of every 1,01000 persons within the total population and 369 of every 1,000 between the ages of 14 and 26 (the eligible age group) will be Komsomol members (see Table 2-5). meNn4 1Simitar changes have.been proposed recently for local govern- agAnnlacsO ....omoscacis the city, ward, and rural rayon executive committees. 12 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy A proved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two Year 1939 1940 1941 19+5 1949 1950 1952 (Jan.) 1952 (June) 1954 1956 1958 SECRET Table 2-5 GROWTH OF THE USSR KOMSOMOL: 1939-1958 Total Membershipa ?(in thousands) 5,000 8,700 10,500 8,000 9,283 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,825 18,500 18,000 Number per 1,000 Tota Pop4ation 29 4.4 na na na 67 75 86 98 93 87 I. Political Number per 1,00% Ages 14-26 4 n1 185 na na na na 82 323 369 All figures reported in the Soviet press, except for the 1958 estimate. Figures for 1949 and 1954 reported during the All- , Union Komsomol Congresses held in those years. Based on ARD estimates for total population. The rate of growth of the Komsomol has been extremely ir- regular. In 1936 the main task of the organization was redefined and stressed as the Communist indoctrination of youth, with the result that membership increased sharply in the late thirties and during World War II. By 1947, however, total membership still had not reached the 1941 level of 10.5 million. Komsomol membership more than doubled between 1949 and 1954, reflecting the increased importance the regime attached to the ideological preparation of the most promising of Soviet youth for Party membership and for the organization and indoctrination of Soviet youp, in general for service to the regime. Given the widespread unrest among educated Soviet youth, particularly noticeable since the Polish-Hungarian uprising in 1956, the Komsomol may be expected to re-emphasize political conformity for its membership. Since more than 80 per cent of students in higher educational establishments and 20 per cent of students in general are members, the Komsomol will become increasingly important as an organ of control over the nonconformist elements of Soviet youth. 13 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A proved for Release 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-0104.f1Rnn9Annno (-Irmo n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two Political C. Government 1, The USSR Control Force Note: Data published since The 1957 Annual Estimates has permitted an extension in the coverage of the primary and secondary control force categories. A more rigorous definition of subgroups has separated officers and ACOs into the primary and secondary categories, respectively, and as a result some subgroups and totals are not comparable with figures presented previously. The possible effects of the proposed (March 1957) decentralization program on the numbers, subordination' and distribution of control force per- sonnel, where known, are discussed. Since the situation remains dynamic, the estimates for primary government and economic control forces continue subject to change. The USSR control force totals an estimated 18,696,000 per- sons, or approximately 9 per cent of the USSR population and 20 per cent of the USSR labor force. It consists of persons who, be- cause of military or administrative rank, type of employment, or character of professional activities, direct, supervise, or control at least part of the activities of others. The primary control force is that segment which is responsible for the formulation of policy or for the exercise of general administrative or command functions; the secondary control force provides certain professional services of a public nature or has supervisory or command status involving the direct control of a limited number of persons engaged in the production of goods or provision of physical services. The most important of the various components of the control force is the Communist Party, followed in order of imprtance by the primary government and military sectors (see Table 2-6). Each of these possesses either the position or the means to command the activities of large segments of the population. The least im- portant are the secondary government and economic sectors, in which control functions are limited to small groups and occasionally are dependent upon an individual's prestige. The functions and status of the control force create inter- ests and relationships which tend 'co set its members apart from other sectors of the population. And although officially there are no classes in Soviet society, nevertheless these differences serve in the free world as criteria for the determination of social classes. Members of the Soviet control force, therefore, may be equated with the upper- and middle-classes in other secieties. As elsewhere, they hold a more favored economic position than the mass of the populntinn. SECRET Declassified Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R00240no7nnmn Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political Table 2-6 ESTIMATED COMPOSITION OF THE USSR CONTROL FORCE: 1958 (Numbers in thousands) Catemmy. Prima x Secondary Total 1.1.n Communist Party 444J Government 1,239 8,856 10,095 Military 620 1,090 1,710 MVD and KGB 130 260 390 Economic 732 5,)129641 TOTAL 31* 15,535% 18,696 The rewards for their services range from the high salary and ex- tensive perquisites of a member of the USSR Council of Ministers to the meager pay and limited privileges of a rural primary-school teacher. The growth of the USSR control force will probably continue in the near future, since the increasing industrialization and urbanization of the economy demands more and varied administrative and supervisory positions. Distribution. The estimated distribution of the USSR . ? primary and secondary control forces among the major ad- ministrative divisions is rough,ly in proportion to the estimated distribution of population (see Table 2-7). The distribution with- in the major divisions, however, is believed to show a high degree of concentration in Moskva and the capitals of the union republics. ' Communist Party Control Force: The estimated 440,000 members of the Communist Party control force constitute the single most important component of the USSR control force, for their power and authority cut across all other sectors. Through this group are channeled the directives of the Party Presidium (formerly Politburo) which affect every segment of Soviet society. The Party control force consists of all employees of the Party apparatus, from the secretaries of the USSR Central Party. Committee, such as Nikita S. Khrushchev, down to the members of the rural rayon.Party Committees. Members of the Party control force occupy the commanding heights of the Soviet power structureg At the apex of government, all members of the Presidium of the USSR 15 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political Table 2-7 ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF THE USSR CONTROL FORCE, BY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION: 1958a AdministratiVe Division Primary. Secondary Total Russian SFSR and abroad 1,932 f,r 10,799 Ukrains 33kaya SSR ")Gi en4 3,732 Belorusskaya SSR 112 7548 660 Uzbekskaya SSR 79 WI 523 Kazakhskaya SSR 127 835 962 Gruzinskaya SSR 66 290 356 Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR 56 2146 302 Litovskaya SSR 10 192 233 Moldavskaya SSR 28 141 169 Latviyskaya SSR 48 171 219 Kirgizskaya SSR 33 128 161 Tadzhikskaya SSR 32 132 164 Armyanskaya SSR 28 120 11+8 Turkmenskaya SSR 32 104 136 Estonskaya SSR 26 106 132 TOTAL 3,161 151535 18,696 a.ll figures are rough approxiMhtions. The control force components are distributed among the administrative divisions as follows: Party professionals, in proportion to Iota' Party membership; government, on the basis of budgetary data; armed forces and MVD and KGB troops, through extrapolation of estimated Party membership serving in the military; militia, fire defense, and others, in proportion to estimated urban-rural distribution of population; and economic, according to estimated nonagricultur- al workers and employees and rural labor force. Council of Ministers are also members of the Presidium of the USSR Party Central Committee. A similar situation exists at the union republic level, but at the local level Party officials are full- time professionals. At all administrative-territorial or organ- izational levels the Party control force functions primarily through selection and placement of personnel; some Oblast Party Committees are responsible for personnel in as many as 2,600 types of positions. With such wide powers over key personnel, members .of the Party control force enjoy high status and considerable prestige. their responsibilities are great and at the middle level--oblast, kray, and ASSR--will probably increase considerably in the immed- 16 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDPRi-ninaqpnnoArwvw,,, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 1. Political iate future as the proposed decentralization program is implemented (see Section C. 2, Trends in Administration). Government Control Force. The government control force totals an estimated 10,095,000, including 1,239,000 in the primary and 8,856,000 in the secondary control force (see Table 9-8). This vast bureauracy is employed by the ministries and specialized agencies of the USSR, union republic, and autonomous republic governmen?s, and by the departments and directorates of the oblast, kray, okruo: i+ and rakinn-einvarrtme1^4, .14 7 "4/ 7 ? sw, I litts.41 1..t7 I t. tir.o.1,JUVO the highest members-of the USSR government as well as .the chairmen of village selsovets. Although the disposition of .persons in the governmentcontrol force is in the process of change, their. numbers may be expected to continue to increase as the Soviet State ages. Table 2-8 THE GOVERNMENT CONTROL FORCE: 1958 (Numbers in thousands) Level of i b :, .;4 .Subordination Primarya Secondary hotal USSR ' 361 ___ 361 Republic 284 2,176 2,460 Local IL_ 6 680 7,274 TOTAL 1,239 8,856 10,095 aDerived from 1) appropriations for upkeep of adminis- trative and judicial bodies; 2) official statement concerning propof-tion of wages to total costs in these bodies; 3) author- itative statements as to costs of administrative agencies at local level; 4) official statements regarding savings made pos- sible by the discharge of stated numbers of administrative per- sonnel. Prnm bDerived 11 t^tml mnnrnrikrimt;ro-to ? ?r, Pro- each union republic; 2) appropriations for local government agencies for each union republic; 3) average annual wages derived in item 1+, footnote a. 17 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I Political Control The primary govern- ment control force includes all employees of state administration and judicial organs, from the central government to the most remote rural soviet. Although there are wide differences between the authority of those in the upper and lower levels of th4- n. D 1 1 0 ? group,car0.1 I. I will LI1U uvmuluni L raft.), t/FpdielIUS s he 'most important-component of the USSR control force. In general, this group does not directly control the production of goods and services but rather exercises'overall r.nn+rril over mlm^c4 n11 types. of economic, social, and cultural activity in the Soviet Union. At the highest level, the central USSR authorities have great power and prestige. They are the leaders in the determination of policy and they tend to act without considering the wishes or needs of peripheral areas. Although the authority of republic and local authorities has increased considerably dur- ing the past year and may be expected to increase further as the decentralization movement continues, it will continue to be limited largely to implementation of directives issued by agencies at the USSR level. Since 1955 there has been an estimated decrease of 122,000 in the total primary control force, reflecting the transfer of certain controls to nongovernmental agencies and the results of a campaign for the reduction in administrative personnel. The number of USSR employees has decreased considerably airing the past year, but the decrease has been almost compensated for by increases in the number of emp1o5tees a.E.,u4on republic level. Prior cam- paigns to reduce the number of administrative personnel have been effective at first, but have always been followed by increases which sometimes exceeded the reduction. It is felt, therefore, that the long-term trend toward growth will reassert itself, and that while some components may be reduced, the to;tal primary con- trol force will increase as republic governments extend their activities. Secondary Government Control Force. The 8,856,000 members of the secondary government control force are employees of institutions and enterprises funded through budgetary appropriations of the USSR, union and autonomous re- publics, oblasts, krays, okrugs, cities, and rayons. They include 18 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two L Political health and educational personnel and those employed in various public service and utility activities. Although the secondary control force has no responsibility for policy determination or planning, it carries out the policies set by the primary control force and also directs certain activities of a public nature. Its influence is significant, particularly since its members in- clude workers in the health and educational services who are important forces in most urbanized and industrialized economies. The economic status of this group is far less favorable than that of members of the primary control force. Significant changes in the subordination of the secon- dary control force as a result of the increasing decentralization of governmental activities have resulted in an increase in the number of employees during the past year as the central govern- ment has transferred the responsibility for specific functions to lower agencies. This increase will continue as the Soviet State becomes more consumer-oriented. Military Control Force. The Soviet military control force comprises the 1.71 million officers and NCOs of the USSR army, navy, and air force (see Table 2-9). The key position of the military is reflected in the high incidence of Party membership in its ranks: a reported 77 per cent of the total armed forces and 86.4 per cent of Soviet officers are members either of the Party or of the Komsomol. Table 2-9 THE MIL I TARY _CONTROL FORCE: 1958a (Numbers in thousands) Primary Secondary Branch of Service (Officers) (NC0s) Total Army . 325' 65 950 Navy (excluding ? Naval Air Force) 95 185 280 Air Force (including *Naval Air Force) 200 280. Ia. TOTAL 620 1,090 1,710 ..1101=.10?Idrp, aBased on Order of Battle information as of 'I May 1957. 19 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part To The primary control force of the military consists of the estimated 620,000 Soviet officers. The officer corps occupies a privileged position in Soviet society and receives special treat- ment, such as access to normally unobtainable consumer. goods at nominal prices. The lowest ranking Soviet officer receives abase pay which is 13 times as great as that of a private soldier; the pay of the highest ranking officer is more than 100 times. as. great. The estimated 1.09 million professional NCOs comprise the. secondary .control force. They receive substantially the same priv- ileges, on a reduced scale, as commissioned.officers. Their base pay ranges from 3 to 10 times greater than that of the private soldier. Among the branches of service,. officers and NCOs.serving in.the air force have higher status 'than. those in the navy and army. Within each. branch, those serving in combat units, such as air crews and submarine service, receive preferential treatment. 211........S.GICE_Is.itrol.Fre.leMandl. The Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) and Committee of State. Security (KGB) control force totals an estimated 390,000 officers and ACO's (see Table 2-10). As members of the Soviet state security organs, they are firmly controlled by and act as the enforcement arm of the central apparatus of the Ctmmunist Party.. While their status and prestige has declined' in recent years, they continue to control the only majcir segment of Soviet society other than the armed forces with the right to bear arms. The primary security control force. consists of the 130,000 careerist .aficers, who. range from a member of the KGB or"secret' police" in Moskva to a.fire departmeni chief. in a'small remote city. Officers .of the most militarized groups command the estimated 400,000 MVD border guards-and-internal security troops, including-the convoy, railroad, 'and 'government signal troops: Pay-differentials are even 1- IL.. 4 41ftei .nemus...A forces, .-P,C" 1 ^ 10 * greater Limn in wv and 'officers 'as. ,sceive pri- vileges not accorded their counterparts.in.theinilitary.. - An estimated 260i000 NCOs constitute the secondary security control fokce. They occupy positions comparable to the NVOs in the armed forces but have greater prestige in the eyes of the civilian population. 20 SECRET isseimmon Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part .Two SECRET 1, Political Table 2-10 THE MVD AND KGB CONTROL FORCE: 190 (Numbers in thousands) Primary Secondary Branch of Service (Officers) (NC0s) Total Border guardsb b 20 1+0 60 Security troops 30 65 95 Militia (police)c 5'5 105? 160 Fire defense and others _gi. 50 , ?75. TOTAL 130 260 390 aAll figures are rough approximations. bBased on Order of Battle information as of 1 May 1957. Based on the assumptions that 1) the ratio of urban militia to urban population reported in the 1926 census has remained constant; 2) there are approximately 50 militiamen in the average rural rayon (based on information in captured German documents); and 3) the relationship between officers, NCOs, and total militia is the same as in the border guard and security troops. Based on the assumption that the relationship to urban population reported in the 1926 census has remained approximately constant. Fire defense personnel comprise approximately 50 per cent of total. Among the various components of the security control force, those serving in the KGB are the most closely screened by the Party and are the most feared by the other sectors of the USSR control force and the population in general. While the turnover has been high since Beria's purge in 1953, their numbers are believed to have remained relatively constant. Members of the militia and fire defense services, the lowest ranking of the security organs, recently have lost their autonomous status and have become sub- ordinate to local organs of the civil government. The Economic Control Force. The economic control force, estimated to 6,061,000, equates roughly with the Soviet "managerial' class" (see Table 2-11). Members of the economic control force hold positions ranging from that of director of an economic unit managing the work of a large group of factories with tens of thousands of workers to the foreman of a labor'group on a small collective farm. Whatever his position, however, each one controls 21 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043Rnn94nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET Table 2-11 THE ECONOMIC CONTROL FORCE, BY OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORY: 1958a (Numbers in thousands) Political Occupational Category Primaryb secol:.u...x.irc Total IndustrYd d 312 2,156 2,468 constructil- )( 285 342 Agriculture 81 2,220 2130I Transportation and communicationse 36 97 133 Trade, procurement, and supplyd 237 518 755 Education and public healthe 3 gi. 27 Others 6 TOTAL 732 51329 6,061 aAll estimates derived by applying pre- and post-war percent- ages of administrative-managerial personnel of total labor force to ARD 1958 labor force estimates. Includes administrative staffs of economic organizations (departments, associations, trusts, and combines) not part of enterprises and plants. Does not include workers in institu- tions for administration of the economy financed by the state budget (included in the government control force category) nor managerial personnel in enterprises or plants. cIncludes administrative-managerial personnel in enter- prises and plants, and collective and state farms and machine- tractor stations. dBased on data contained in Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSR (Moskva, 1956) and Sovetskaya torgovlya (Moskva, 1956)7-- eBased on projections of the relationship between admin- istrative-managerial personnel and labor force contained in Chislennost i zarabotna a data rabochikh i sluzhashchikh v SSR Moskva, 193 Trud v SSR Moskva 193 and E211112zy vo vtorei stalinskoy piatletke (Moskva, 1939)1 assuming such relationships have remained relatively constant. .6?410.111000# the economic activities of a number of persons. As a result, he not only is responsible for the proper fulfillment of set plans but also enjoys a greater reward for success than does the common worker. As industrial and agricultural production increases in t USSR and as new forms of economic control are developed, this group will tend to increase in numbers and importance. 22 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 1 he Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political Primary Economic Control Force. The primary economic control force, totaling 732,000, is responsible for the supervision of groups of producing enter prises. Its members are the "middlemen" between the ministries and other governmental agencies and the actual producers. They are employed by economic organizations (trusts, combines, associations, and departments) which are generally organized on a geographical basis to control activities of specific types of enterprises within a given area (e.g., the Karaganda Coal Combine which controls a number of trusts operating coal mines in the Karaganda fields in Kazakhstan, or an oblast state farm trust which supervises a regionally defined group of state farms). They receive relatively high re- wards for their services, and by virtue of the level at which they work are somewhat remote from the rest of the population. Indirect evidence suggests that the centralization of policy and planning at the USSR level tends to make this intermediate group somewhat superfluous, and its authority is resented by those at the plant level. However, the current plan for the decentraliza- tion of the control of economic activity will propbably increase the importance of the primary control force and bring about a corresponding growth in its numbers, for, given the local experience, it will form the nucleus of the new type of control agency, the regional Councils of National Economy. Secondary Economic Control Force. The estimated 5,329,000 persons who comprise the secondary economic control force range in position from the director of the Magni- togorsk Metallurgical Combine, with its thousands of employees, to the foreman of a small work group on a collective farm. Theirs is the responsibility of supervising the actual production of goods or services and of controlling to that end the activities of a group of workers. The closer contact between the working and the managerial group at this level, AR contrasted With groups at other levels, promotes frequent clashes of interest. In compari- son with groups at lower levels, members of the secondary economic control force receive substantial economic benefits and enjoy A2c;ar Annacc +e% er.zrno. ^ninecamar %OP %eV %OW; 1.011,411TV gyvvo? The industrialization of the Soviet economy and continued urbanization will increase the number and significance of this group, particularly as decentralization of some functions increases the range of control at this level. 23 SECRET 1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two L Political 2. Trends in Administration Soviet Communist Party Secretary Nikita N. Khrushchev's grand scheme to reduce the extreme centralization of Soviet economic administration entered its operational phase in the early summer of 1957. The new system, which transfers working re- sponsibility for many spheres of industrial and construction activity to local control, divides the USSR into 105 economic re- gions, each supervised by a national economic council (sovnarkhoz). It is based on proposals, made by Khrushchev in late March, modified during a subsequent "nationwide" discussion, and enacted into law by the USSR Supreme Soviet on 10 May and by the 15 republic Supreme Soviets in late May and early June. Although first presented to Soviet citizens with dramatic suddenness in early spring, the new system of economic administra- tion had been in the making for several months. It was foreshadowed by a two-year Soviet campaign against the evils of overcentralization, bureaucratic gigantism, and irrational business practices in the Soviet economic-administrative system. in previous actions Soviet leaders had already reduced all light industrial and some heavy in- dustrial ministries from all-union to union-republic status, had ordered them to divest themselves of superfluous departments and personnel, and had attempted to transplant the offices of numerous directorates and administrations from'Moskva to industrial and con- struction sites throughout the country. In the course of these two years, some 15,000 separate enterprises were transferred to republic jurisdiction. The policy suffered a fleeting setback in December 1956 when a plenary session of the Party Central Committee called for measures "to ensure a further extension of? the powere of ministries, chief directorates of ministries, soviets, and economic enterprises" in the name of "eliminating excessive centralization in management.," But the crisis passed quickly, and two months later the February (1957) Plenum of the Central Committee demanded a reorganization of industrial and construction administration "according to the territorial principle on the basis of definite economic eegions." Even then the scope of the proposed reform was not apparent; ii did not become apparent until late March when Khrushchev outlined his grand plan to scrap the existing functional, or ministerial, SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 1. Political approach to economic management and to return to the territorial- production system which had dominated Soviet economic management during the 1920s. Although certain of Khrushchev's specific re- commendations were abandoned in the subsequent legal enactments, there was no effective challenge to the main princiOles he pro-i pounded. The consequence was abolition of many functional economic ministries, the removal of direct significant managerial functions from All but two of the remaining industrial ministries (Medium Machine Building and Transport Construction), and the delegation of responsibility for industrial and construction work to sovnarkhozy in each of 105 economic regions. The entrance of Khrushchev's new system into operation on 1 July marked the opening of a third major phase of organizational development in the Soviet scheme of indus'tr'ial management. During the earliest period of Soviet rule, while Lenin's personality still dominated and shaped the attitudes of the Communist Party's lead- ing economic thinkers, the concept prevailed of large regional in- dustrial conglomerates. These attitudes were Ixpressed organiza- tionally and territorially in the formation of10-ge economic regions whose productive activity was arranged and coordinated by regional councils of national economy. Central direction and coordination were achieved througha Supreme Council of National Economy (VSNKh), which at the height of its authority during the period of War Commu- nism (191'7120), acted as a central state institution for the general administration of all nationalized industry in the Soviet state. Although initially the authority of the VSNKh was ills-defined, it had by mid-1918 assumed control of industrial activity, with special emphasis on fulfillment of military orders for the Red Army. On the basis of this authority, it was able by year's end to abolish the principle of local supervision of industry and to introduce strict centalization. The largest and most important industries were' subordinated directly to agencies of the VSNKII; medium-size enterprises were jointly subordinated to VSNKh and local economic councils, and only small enterprises fell under local jurisdiction. After the New Economic Policy was adopted in 1921, the power of the VSNKh began? to decline. Industrial financing passed into the hands of the State Bank (Gosbank) in 1921, and denationalized industries fell outside the system of industrial control. In that 25 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political year, too, the Soviet government organized 22;478 trusts but placed only 133 of them under VSNKh jurisdiction. The remainder were as- signed to local economic councils and other agencies. Further re- organizations in 1923 and 1926 affirmed the competence of the VSNKh (1) to direct policy and to frame legislation for industry as a whole, and (2) to administer state industry. But the XVI Party conference, meeting in 1929, stripped the agency of the former func- , tion and transformed it into an "organ of the actual technical ad- ministration of industry." The VSNKh continued in this role, con- ducting its operations through combines and trusts which in turn directed entire branches of industry, until 1932 when it was finally reorganized out of existence. In its place, the central government formed three industrial commissariats (ministries): the People's Commissariat of Heavy Industry, the People's Commissariat of Light Industry, and the People's Commisariat of the Timber and Woodwork- ing Industry. The era of industrial functionalism at the ministerial level--of creating commissariats which governed the activities of individual and increasingly specialized branches of industry--had opened. , The years 1914-37 witnessed a short-lived attempt to revive the territorial-production principle. Criticisms of industrial management at the XVII Party Congress in 1934 led to the formation within commissariats of a number of chief directorates which ad- ministrated their own branches of the conomy within defined territor- ial limits. Operative industrial agencies, however, continued to exist within ministries, and the miOstries themselves remained organized along functional lines. Ai industrial production became increasingly specialized during the Second and Third Five-Year Plans there occurred not only a further narrowing of the competences of the economic commissariats and their division into a large number of specialized commissariats but a proliferation of independent chief directorates. By 1940 industrial administration had already passed to the hands of commissariats and to scores of chief directorates. The Soviet Union's entrance into World War II in- terrupted but did not halt the trend; and in the early postwar years it was resumed with full vigor. A peak was reached in 1947 when 59 individual all-union and union-republic ministries, 50 of which directed various aspects of Soviet economic life, were simultaneously 26 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political in being, A wave of economy led to the abolition or consolidation of 12 ministries in 1948 and 1949; but it passed and the process of ministerial atomization continued. , Stalin's passing momentarily reversed the trend. His anxious legatees, doubtless fearing the worst, moved quickly to consolidate their positions. On 7 March two days after Stalin died, Soviet leaders by merger and consolidation reduced the number of ministries from 60 to 25. However, the unwieldiness of the new administrative structure 'soon led to a new division of ministries. By April 1954 the number of ministries had increased to 46, and in 1956 it had reached 52. Despite this new multiplication of functional administrative agencies. Khrushchev's rise to eminence in the Soviet leadership group brought with it an attack of mounting intensity against the rigidities and inefficiencies of the ministerial system of industrial administration. The basic themes were epitomized in a three-count indictment with which Krushchev in March 1957 pre- faced the revelation of his plan to cupplant the existing_industrial ministries with a system of territorially organized economic councils. The most damaging point of-the indictment was Khrushchev's hint of a rising trend toward ministerial autarky. lnduirial ministries, he complained, "often seek to manufacture [for themselves] every- thing they need," and erect departmental barriers which "disturb. normal economic connecti-ons between enterprises of different branches of industry" located within the same territorial unit. This system, he declared, had encouraged the growth of irrational construction, egocentric tendencies in ministerial planning, and ineffective utilization of the nation's industrial and manpower. resources. - in addition to such tendencies as these, Khrushchev argued, the ministerial system had promoted a growing isolation of manage- ment from production. Not only were numerous directing agencies in Moskva located physically at great distances from the sites of production, but the ministries and their departments had also failed to make rational use of specialists and local nadrAs in the guidance of industry and construction. As his third point Khrushchev again singled out the Soviet Union's huge and growing bureaucratic machine for criticism and repeated his frequent demand for a reduction and simplification of the entire managerial apparatus. For Khrushchev's purposes, these faults constituted REL.% 27 , SECRET npnlassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political facie evidence of the inability of the existing economic-adminis- trative system--and the functional principle upon which it was based --to meet the requirements of future Soviet economic development. In that it had created a "powerful technical and material base, specialists, mature managers, and a large labor force," 'the system had served its purpose. But, he argued, it had also created "favorable conditions" and the need to return to the territorial principle in economic management. While Khrushchev's plans were presented to the public with the imperator of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and the USSR Council of Ministers after a discus- sion which reportedly lasted for four Months, it was apparent that considerable disagreement existed as to details and fundamental principles. In his presentation Khrushchev pointedly referred to 'certain Comrades'lwho had attempted to obstruct Party approval of the plan, and during the nationwide discussion of the plan, not a single prominent member of the "Stalinist" 'old guard lent public support to the reorganization proposal. In the provinces there appeared contending groups which vigorously debated the detils-- although not the principles--of the planned reorganization. By May, the opposition was ready to contest openly the principles of the plan itself. At the USSR Supreme Soviet Meeting two nonpolitic- al specialists presented arguments for the preservation of the in- dustrial ministries and continued centralization of economic manage- ment, complaining that the "dismemberment [of industry] on a regional principle'( contradicted the economic experience of the most advanced industrial countries and that the dispersal of engineering and tech- nical experience could result in grave setbacks to the' continued progress of Soviet industry. Faced with the opposition of at least some of his colleagues in the Presidium of the Party and the Argu- ments of prominent experts, Khrushchev hedged. In his own report to the Supreme Soviet Khrushchev t'-etreated somewhat from his earlier stand, leaving some of his supporters 1When the sequel was played out before the June (1957) Plenum of the Central Committee of the Party, Kaganovich, Molotov, and Malenkov were purged as leaders of an !"anti-Party" group which had, among other misdeeds, "persistently opposed and sought to frustrate the reorganization of industrial management. 28 CRET L_Declassified in Part-Sanitized Copy Approved SE for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two from the hustings in exposed positions. While his earlier state- ments implied abolition of most, if not all, industrial ministries, at both union and republic levels, he now admitted the need to re- tain eight key industrial ministries connected with national de- fense, but insisted that all but two of them, the ministries of Medium Machine Building and Transport Construction, be stripped of most of their managerial functions. And he further agreed to allow republic Supreme Soviets to determine for themselves whether to retain certain industrial ministries at the republic level. In its legislative enactments, the USSR Supreme Soviet promptly abolished 25 industrial and construction ministries and ordered their enter- prises transferred to the jurisdiction of appropriate sovnarkhozy. Two other ministries were merged out of existence, and eix of the eight remaining economic ministries were divested of operational control over industrial enterprises and trantformed into planning and coordinating organizations (see Figure 2-1). In the republics, similar scenes were enacted at Supreme Soviet sessions in late May and early June. The RSFSR Supreme Soviet abolished eight union-republic and two republic industrial ministries and reduced two from union-republic to republic status (see Figure 2-2). The Ukrainian Supreme Soviet abolished eleven union-republic-and two republic ministries and reduced one ministry from union-republic to republic status The Latvian Supreme Soviet liquidated six union-republic ministrieb, merged the republic ministries of Municipal Economy and Fuel and Local Industry into a single republic ministry of Municipal and Local Economy, and re- designated an enlarged republic ministry of the Timber Industry as the republic ministry of the Foresfry and Timber Industry. The reorganization of industrial administration followed similar lines in the other republics (see Figure 2-3). Khurshchev's plans for the organization of the sovnarkhozy and the establishment of a new system of territorial economic ad- ministration underwent a somewhat similar metamorphosis in the period between March and July. Even when the March theses were published, a plan for the territorial and administrative organ- ization of the proposed new system had apparently been under dis- cussion for several months at high Party and governmeOt levels. And as subsequent developments seemed to indicate, it had been 30 SECRJET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Figure 2-1 April 1956 Chairman First Deputy Chairmen Deputy Chairmen Chairmen of following agencies: Board of the State Bank Committee of State Security State Committee for Construction and Architectual Affairs State Committee on New Technology State Committee on Long-Range Planning of the National Economy State Economic Commission on Current Planning of the National Economy State Committee on the Question of Labor and Wages All-Union Ministers of: Agricultural Procurement Automobile Industry Aviation Industry Chemical Industry Construction and Road-Machine Building Construction of Electric Power Stations Electric Power Stations Construction of Enterprises of Coal Industry Construction of Enterprises of Petroleum Industry Defehse Industry General Machine-Building Foreign Trade Heavy Machine-Building Machine-Building Machine Tools and Instruments Building July 19P Chairman First Deputy Chairmen Deputy Chairmen Chairmen of following agencies: Board of the State Bank Committee of State Security State Committee on Construction Committee for State Control State Planning Commission Central Statistical Administration State Scientific-Technical Committee Republic Councils of Ministers (ex officio) All-Union Ministers of: AviationIndustry Chemical Industry Electric Power Stations Defense industry Foreign Trade ItinimminimmiJ_De 31' Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Figure 2-1 (continued) April 1916_ ? Medium Machine-Building Maritime Fleet Production of Instruments and Means of Automation Radio-Technical Industry River Fleet Shipbuilding Industry Tractor and Agricultural Machine Building Industry Transportation Transport Construction Transport Machine=gBuilding Union-Republic Ministers of: Agriculture State Farms Automotive Transport and Highways Building Materials Industry Coal Industry Communications Construction Construction of Enterprises of Metallurgical and Chemical Industry Culture Defense Ferrous Metallurgy Finance Fishing Industry Food Products Industry Foreign AffairQ Geology and Protection of Mineral Resources Higher Education ( Internal Affairs Justice Light Industry Meat and Dairy Products Industry Non-Ferrous Metallurgy Paper and Wood-Processing Industry Petroleum Industry Public Health State Control Textile Industry Timber Industry Trade Urban and Rural Construction 32 SECRET 1%1 Medium Machine-Building Maritime Fleet Radio-Technical Industry Shipbuilding ,riclustry Transportation' Transport Construction Union-Republic Ministers of: Agriculture Communications Culture Defense 'Finance Foreign Affairs Geology and Protection of Mineral Resources Higher Education Internal Affairs Public Health Trade Grain Products Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Figure 2-2 REORGANIZATION OF THE RUSSIAN SFSR COUNCIL OF MINISTERS April 1956 Chairman Deputy Chairmen of Committee of State Security State Committee for Construction and Architectural Affairs State Planning Commission Union-Republic Ministers of: Agriculture Automotive Transport and Highways Building Materials Industry Communications Culture Defense Finance Fishing Industry Foreign Affairs Internal Affairs Justice Light Industry Meat and Dairy Products Industry Public Health State Control State Farms Textile Industry Timber Industry Trade Urban and Rural Construction Republic Ministers of: Education Local Fuel Industry Local Industry Municipal Economy Social Security 33 SECRET July 1957 Chairman First Deputy Chairmen Deputy Chairmen of Committee of State Security State Planning Commission Union-Republic Ministers of: Agriculture Communications Culture Defense Finance Foreign Affairs Internal Affairs Public Health State Control Trade Grain Products Republic Ministers of: Education Municipal Economy Social Setu6ty Automotive Transport and Roads Construction Justice Paper and Wooci-Processing Industry River Fleet Timber Industry Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R0074nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Figure 2-3 ORGANIZATION OF REPUBLICAN COUNCILS OF MINISTERS IN THE USSR: 1957a Chairman First Deputy Chairmen Deputy Chairmen Chairmen of: Committee for Construction and Architectural Affairs Committee of State Security Council of Ministers of ASSRs Scientific-Technioal Committee Sovnarkhozy Slate Planning Commission Union-Republic Ministers of: Agriculture Communications Culture Defense Finance Foreign Affairs Grain Products Higher Education Internal Affairs Public Health State Control Trade Republic Ministers of: Automobile Transport and Roads Building Materials Industry Armyanskaya SSR Be 1 orusskaya ssk Es tons kaya SSR 1Gruzinskaya SSR -1 lkir2izskaya SSR 1RSFSR rUkrainskaya SSR aauaua II MI EIHEMME101111x Mix x x 1:11:11x 1:11 x 11111111x Clx Mix El PIPIPINIFINIIMIPPIPIPIPIN I I I IIIIII ?innuma NI tin 1111 111111FIFIFIMPIPIPIPUIPIPIPI III 11 ill Pill tnenimeni x ""Px IIx x 1 kol x MI Egg xP X)IXXXIXXXIXXX E3 111 x Clel x x x ell xxxx xx x x x X tilX x: xx xx xxx XXX IXXX 1 1 XXXXXIIIX 1 XX X X XXX X X X ?lllIlIlIlUUIx ilium xx I xx xx 2: x xx xx x INN xxix NI x x ii in mixxxxxi RI 111111i x x x 111 aX indicates mandatory inclusion of offic-holder in Republic Council of Ministers. P indicates inclusion of office-holder in Republic Council of Ministers at the discretion of the appropriate council. 34- 1 1 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Figure 2-3 (continued) Construction Education Forestry and Timber Industry Geology and Protection of Mineral Resources Justice Local Economy Local Industry Melioration Municipal and Local Economy Municipal Economy Petroleum Industry Paper and Wood-Processing Industry River Fleet Social Security Timber Industry Water Economy Chief Directorate for Construction 35 SECRET [Armyanskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR I Be I orusskay& ssk Estonskiwa SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Kir2izskaya SSR Laiviyskaya SSR Li toyskaya SSR L_Moidaysk'aya SSR I fr-T?F'SR Tadzhikskaya SSR Turkmenska;ia SSR Ukrainskaya SSR Uzbekskaya SSR 4 X X XXXX XX XX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX I I, X p I . X X 3:4nX X X X LX X' X i 'X X X X X , wX X X P. X X AA X X X X ?XXXX X t , n X A r X XXXXXXXXXXXXXXX X, X X X X I X X X A X . 1 f Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two I. Political drawn up in considerable detail. But the theses limned only its main outlines. Three principles, nevertheless, emerged as decisive in the creation of the forthcoming arrangement of economic-territor- ial units: 1. Economic regions would be based primarily upon the country's largest industrial centers or upon foci of projected large-scale industrial investment; 2. Despite the absence of industrial bases--and largely for lack of a suitable alternative?remote and territorially sr di -0- erbed arect would be organized as separate economic regions; and 3. The boundaries of existing political-administrative divisions at oblast or superior levels would generally be respected. Khrushchev's report stipulated no specific number of econom- ic regions, but it appeared from his explanation that most of the regions would consist either of entire republics or of oblast con- glomerates in the largest andf-economically strongest republics. During the subsequent public discussion, the number cited rose from 50 to 70. And Khrushchev recommended 92--presumably 68 in the RSFSR, 11 in the Ukraine, and one each in the remaining 13 repub- lics--in his report to the USSR Supreme Soviet in May. At the meetings of the republic Supreme Soviets which followed enactment of the new system into law at the USSR level, the number was raised to 105. The RSFSR increased the number of its economic administra- tive regions from 68 to 701; the Kazakh Supreme Soviet organized 9 regions, and the Uzbek body created four. Of the total 105 eco- nomic regions which thus emerged from the reform, one encompassed a single city (Moskva), 77 embraced single oblasts or equivalent administrative-territorial units (autonomous ()blasts or autonomous soviet socialist republics), 16 were composed of more than one Oblast, and 11 comprised entire union republics (see Figure 2-4). In no case was the territorial integrity of an oblast or superior territorial administrative unit compromised. According to the new economic order, the sovnarkhozy, or- ganized in each of the 105 economic regions, act as the basic 1 No economic council was organized in the Tuvinskaya Autonomous Oblast, making Tuva the only ritgion of the USSR which does not participate in the new organization of industry and construction. 36 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Figure 2-14 DISTRIBUTION OF SOVNARKHOZY (REGIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCILS) BY ADMINISTRATIVE-TERRITORIAL DIVISION: 1957 Regional Seat of Economib Council Administration, RSFSR Northern Economic Region (old) Arkhangelskiy Arkhangelsk Komi Syktyvkar Vologodskiy Vologda Northwest Economic Region (old) Leningradskiy Leningrad Kalininskiy Murmanskiy Karelskiy Central Economic Region Balashovskiy Belgorodskiy Bryanskiy Chuvashskiy Gorkovskiy lvanovskiy Kalininskiy Kaluzhskiy Kirovskiy Kostromskiy Kurskiy Lipetskiy Mar iyskiy Moskovskiy (oblast) Moskovskiy (city) Mordovskiy Orlovskiy Penzenskiy Ryazanskiy Smolenskiy Tambovskiy Tulskiy Viadimirskiy Voronezhskiy Yaroslavskiy Kaliningrad Murmansk Petrozavodsk (old) Balashov Belgorod Bryansk Cheboksary Gorkiy Ivanovo Kalinin Kaluga Kirov Kostroma Kursk Lipetsk Yoshkar-Ola Moskva Moskva Saransk Orel Penza Ryazan SMolensk Tambov Tula Vladimir Voronezh Yaroslavl Volga Economic Region (old) Astrakhanskiy Astrakhan Kuybyshevskiy Kuybyshev Saratovskiy Saratov Stalingradskiy Stalingrad 37 SECRET Administrative-Territorial Division Arkhangelskaya 0 Komi ASSR Vologodskaya 0 Leningradskaya, Novgorod- skaya, Pskovskaya 0 Kalininskaya 0 MOrmanskaya 0 Karelskaya'ASSR Balashovskaya 0 Belgorodskaya 0 Bryanskaya 0 Chuvashskaya ASSR Gorkovskaya 0 lvanovskaya 0 Kalininskaya 0, Velikoluk skaya 0 Kaluzhskaya 0 Kirovskaya 0 Kostromskaya 0 Kurskaya 0 Lipetskaya 0 Mar iyskaya ASSR Moskovskaya 0 Moskva Mordovskaya ASSR Orlovskaya 0 Penzenskaya 0 Ryazanskaya 0 Smolenskaya 0 Tambovskaya 0 Tulskaya 0 Vladimirskaya 0 Voronezhskaya 0 Yaroslavskaya 0 Astrakhanskaya 0 Kuybyshevskaya 0 Saratovskaya 0 Stalingradskaya 0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table 2-4 (continued) ? Regional Economic Co9ncil Tatarskiy Ulyanovskiy North Caucasus Economic Checheno-Ingushskiy Dagestanskiy Kabardinskiy Kamenskiy Krasnodarskiy Rostovskiy Severo-Osetinskiy Stavropolskiy SECRET Seat of Administration Kazan Ulyanovsk Region (old) Groznyy Makhachkala Nalchik Shakhty Krasnodar nuts '..vv' Ordzhonikidze Stavropol Urals Economic Region (old) Bashkirskiy Ufa Chelyabinskiy Chelyabinsk Chkalovskiy Chkalov Molotovskiy (Permskiy) Molotov Sverdlovskiy Sverdlovsk Udmurtskiy lzhevsk West Siberian Economic Altayskiy Kemerovskiy Kurganskiy Novosibirskiy Omskiy Tyumenskiy Tomskiy East Siberian Economic Buryat-Mongolskiy Chit inskiy Irkutskiy Krasnoyarskiy Yakutskiy Far East Economic Amurskiy Kamchatskiy Khabarovskiy Magadanskiy Primorskiy Sakhalinskiy Region (old) Barnaul Kemerovo Kurgan Novosibirsk Omsk Tyumen Tomsk Region (old) Ulan-Ude Chita Irkutsk Krasnoyarsk Yakutsk Administrative-Territorial Division Tatarskaya ASSR Ulyanovskaya 0 Checheno-Ingushskaya ASSR Dagestanskaya ASSR Kabardinskaya ASSR Kamenskaya 0 Krasnodarskiy RnstelvAkaya 0 Severo-Osetinskaya ASSR Stavropolskiy Kray Bashkirskaya ASSR Chelyabinskaya 0 Chkalovskaya 0 Molotovskaya (Permskaya 0) Sverdlovskaya 0 Udmurtskaya ASSR Altayskiy Kray Kemerovskaya 0 Kurganskaya 0 Novosibirskaya 0 Omskaya 0 Tyumenskaya 0 Tomskaya 0 Buryat-Mongolskaya ASSR Chit inskaya 0 Irkutskaya 0 Krasnoyarskiy Kray Yakutskaya ASSR Region (old) Blagoveshchensk Amurskaya 0 Petropavlovsk Kamchatskaya 0 Khabarovsk Khabarovskiy Kray Magadan Magadanskaya 0 Vladivostok Primorskiy Kray Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk Sakhalinskaya 0 Southern Economic Region (old) Ukrainskaya SSR Dnepropetrovskiy Kharkovskiy Dnepropetrovsk Kharkov Khersonskiy Kherson Kiyevskiy Kiyev 38 SECRET Dnepropeirovskaya 0 Kharkovskaya, Poltavskaya, Sums kaya 0 Khersonskaya, Krymskaya, Nikolayev'skaya 0 Kiyevskaya, Cherkasskaya, Chernigovskaya, Kirovograd- skaya, Zhitomirskaya 0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Figure 2-+ (continued) Regional Economic Council Lvovskiy Odesskiy Stalinskiy Stanislavskiy Vinnitskiy Voroshilovgradskiy Zaporozhskiy Moldavskaya SSR Moldavskiy Baltic Economic Region Belorusskiy Estonskiy Latviyskiy Litovskiy SECRET Seat of Administration Lvov Odessa Stalino Slanislav Vinnitsa Voroshilovgrad Zaporozhe Kishinev (old) Minsk Tallin Riga Vilnyus Transcaucasian Economic Region (old) Yerevan Baku Tbilisi Armyanskiy Azerbaydzhanskiy Gruzinskiy Central Asiatic and Kazakhskaya SSR Aktyubinskiy Alma4tinkiy Guryevskiy Karagandinskiy Kokchetavskiy Kustanayskiy Semipalatinskiy Vostochno- Kazakhstanskiy Ust-Kamenogorsk Yuzhno-Kazakhstanskiy Chimkent Kazakh Economic Aktyubinsk Alma Ala Guryev Karaganda Kokchetav Administrative-Territorial Division Lvovskaya, Rovenskaya, Tern- opolskaya, Volynskaya 0 Odesskaya 0 Stalinskaya 0 Stanislavskaya, Chernovit- skaya, Drogobychskaya, Zakarpatskaya 0 Vinnitskaya, Khmelnitskaya 0 Voroshilovgradskaya 0 Zaporozhskaya 0 Moidavskaya SSR Belorusskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Litovskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Region (old) Aktyubinskaya, Zapadno- Kazakhstanskaya 0 Alma-Atinskaya, Dzhambul- skaya, Taldy-Kurganskaya 0 Guryevskaya 0 Karagandinskaya, Akmolin- skaya, Pavlodarskaya 0 Kokchetavskaya, Severo- Kazakhstanskaya 0 Kustanayskaya 0 Semipalatinskaya 0 Vostochno-Kazakhstanskaya 0 Yuzhno-Kazakhstanskaya, Kzyl-Ordinskaya 0 Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Kokand Ferganskaya, Andizhanskaya, Namanganskaya 0 Kara-Kalpakskaya ASSR,. Khorezmskaya 0 Samarkandskaya, Bukharskaya, Kashka-Darinskaya, Surkhan- Darinskaya 0 Tashkentskaya 0 Kustanay Semipalatinsk Kirgizskaya SSR Kirgizskiy Tadzhikskaya SSR Tadzhikskiy Turkmenskaya SSR Turkmenskiy Uzbekskaya SSR Ferganskiy Kara-Kalpakskiy SamarkandslOy Tashkentskiy Frunze Stalinabad Ashkhabad Fergana or Nukus Samarkand Tashkent 39 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043Rnn94nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political agencies of Soviet economic administration in their areas. For all industrial and construction enterprises of greater than local sig- nificance within their areas (and according to Soviet reports this accounts for 70 to 80 per cent of the total industrial production of each area) they function as supreme administrative, coordinating and planning agencies. For the USSR as a whole, the sovnarkhozy control enterprises producing three-fourths of the total volume of industrial output. They control the entire production of iron, metallurgical equipment; steam and gas turbines, and automobiles. Their administration covers enterprises supplying nearly all steel, rolled ferrous metals, oil, mineral fertilizers and cement, 98 per cent of coal, 97 per cent of textiles, and more than 80 per cent of leather goods and footwear (for production data on selected sovnarkhozy, see Table A-3, Appendix). Moat of the remaining en- terprises which produce the other 25 per cent of the USSRs indus- trial output have been placed under the jurisdiction of local executive committees. However, certain plants, whose production is deemed vital to the national defense and which were named in a secret list prepared by the USSR Council of Ministers, remain under direct central administration. Within the framework of gen- eral decisions, taken at higher levels, the sovnarkhozy have Te- sponsibility for elaborating and thmplementing long-range and current production plans, for promoting industrial specialization within their regions, for arranging deliveries of raw materials and semi- finished products within and between regions, and for determining the financial and economic activities of subordinate agencies (economic organizations, trusts, combines, and branch administra- tions). The March theses did not spell out the organizational format through which these responsibilities would be discharged, but later proposals, advanced by prominent members of the Khrushchev team, laid bare the main organizational forms. These were later standardized and confirmed by the USSR Supreme Soviet and by appropriate republic Supreme Soviets. Although each of the organizational schemes differs from the others in detail, an obvious concession to regional economic peculiarities, all of them manifest remarkable similarities. Each sovnarkhoz consists of a chairman, deputy chairman, and members. Special technical-economic committees, 40 SECRET. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R0024onn9nnnp_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I. Political as well as research and experimental institutes and designing bu- reaus, appear as advisory bodies attached directly to the sovnarkhozy. Below the central apparatus of the sovnarkhozy are ranged a series of functional and industrial branch administrations and trusts. Where warranted, thepe agencies have also established their own research institutes and designing bureaus and, according to Khrushchev, will enjoy the right of operating on a self-sustaining basis (see Figure 2-5). In their administrative capacity, they are charged with direct control of the nation's factories and productive enter- prises. Direct supervision and controi of the activities of the sovnarkhozy themselves will, according io the established Soviet principle of dual subordination, be exercised both by the govern- ments of the union republics and by the government of the USSR. Territorial-administrative units below the republic level (oblasts, krays, ASSRs, etc. ) which are located within economic regions have the right to be informed of the activities of the sovnarkhozy, but they exercise no jurisdiction over them. At the republic level, supervision is exercised both through the formal system of subordina- tion and through the appointment of chairmen (and in some cases, members) of the sovnarkhozy as members of the republic councils of ministers (see Figure 2-6). This system of control appears to be an outgrowth of Khrushchev's proposals for changes in the organization of the USSR Council of Ministers which faces on a larger scale the same problem of co- ordination and supervision. In his theses, Khrushchev indicated three direct avenues of control and accountancy over the subordin- ate economic agencies, and all three proposals'were' subsequently enacted into law. One was a suggestion that the chairmen of the 15 inion'republic Councils of Ministers be admitted to the USSR Council of Ministersias ex-officio members, a situation which would make them immediately and directly accountable to the central govern- ment for economic activities within their? republics. Khrushchev proposed further that the head of the State Statistical Board, which will have sole charge of statistical accounting in the USSR, also be seated on the Council. And he argued lastly for admission to the Council not only of the Chairman of the State Planning Commission (Gosplan) but the vice chairmen and heads of the most 4-1 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 pc) Planning & Economic Metallurgical, Chemical Industries Enterprises Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RD P81-01043R002400020009-0 MINIM ORGANIZATION OF THE COUNCIL OF NATIONAL ECONOMY (SOUNARKHOZ) OF THE GRUZINSKAYA SSR FUNCTIONAL DEPARTMENTS Industrial & Technical Electric Power Industry Enterprises Capital Construction BRANCH ADMINISTRATIONS Machine Building Electra- Technical industries Enterprises Coal & Mining Industry Enterprises Chairman 5 Deputy Chairmen II Members Labor 81 Wage Building Materials Industry Enterprises Cadres a Schools Timber Industry Enterprises Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release Textile Industry Figure 2- 5 Technical-Economic Committee FUNCTIONAL ? DEPARTMENTS Central Accountancy Finances BRANCH ADMINISTRATIONS Light Industry Enterprises Enterprises Meat &Dal y Products, Flub industry [Enterprises 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-n1 n4.fIR nn9 Annno (-Irmo n 1 First Department Food Products Industry Enterprises Administrative a Economic Material Technical Supply aSales Administration Depots Transportation Administration Motor Pools Repair Shops. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 INDUSTRIAL SUBORDINATION IN THE USSR, 1957 Gospian ALL- UNION INDUSTRIAL MINISTRIES USSR Council of Ministers Transport Construction Enterprise Medium Machine Building Enterprise Defense Industry Aircraft Industry Ship Building Scientif i? - Technical Committee ??????????? Gosplan Machine Building Electric Power Radio Technical Chemical Industry Republic Council of Ministers Scientific- Technical Committee Ministry LARGE- SCALE INDUSTRY Council of National Economy (Sovnarkhoz) Sovnarkhoz Branch Administration Branch Administration Defense Plant Aircraft Factory Enterprise Functional Administration Figure 2 - 6 UNION - REPUBLIC MINISTRIES Ministry Ministry Scientific- Technical Committee LOC AL INDUSTRY Oblast Executive Committee {Oblast Executive Committee ASSR Council of Ministers Rayon Executive Committee Rayon Executive Committee Rayon Executive Committee L_ nteripri se Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Enterprise Enterprise Ministry Ministry Declassified. in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SE C RE T Part Two I. PoliticAl important divisions of that agency. Since these persons (who will enjoy ministerial rank) are in many cases the former directors of liquidated industrial ministries, their entrance into the Council of Ministers has created within the Council what amounts to a sub council of individuals who have long been associated with the prob- lems of economic planning, control, and management, Aside from its direct association with ministerial control of industrial development, the enhanced status of Gosplan accords With that body's expected rise in importance both as a planning and coordinating agency and as an indirect agent of central control over the activities of local economic councils. As in the past Gosplan is destined to play its chief role in the sphere of plan- ning. It will continue to draft integrated national economic plans on the basis both of the national economic interest as defined by leading Party and governmental bodies and of economic pians drawn up at subordinate levels by economic councils and re- public Gosplans. Its plans, Khrushchev pointed out, must envisage a proper and rational distribution of the Soviet Union's productive forces, regional industrial specialization, the establishment of economic bonds between regions, and the integrated development of economic areas in terms both of current productive possibilities and of future national economic requirements In the Khrushchev view, Gosplan's capacity to plan also provides a rationale for a broadening of its powers and operative functions. If Gosplan constructs a national plan, he argued in his theses, it must have the'responsibility for the fulfillment of that plan. If its plans provide for interregional deliveries of goodsand services, it must exer6se "control over the strict observance of state discipline" regarding such deliveries. If its task is the promotion through planning 'of 'a unified national economy, it must be empowered to "nip in the bud" every tendency toward the development of regional autarkie4. The precise form .which such powers would ultimately take remained an open question in midsummer 1957. The reorganization law, enacted at the May session of the USSR Supreme Soviet, charged the USSR-Gosplan with responsibility to conduct thorough studies of the needs of the national economy, to elaborate current and long-range eopnomic plans, to ensure the proper distribution of SiE C R1E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two j_,. Poiitic production forces throughout the country, and to plan the distribu- tion of material and technical supplies on a nation-wide scale. But neither the March theses, the ensuing newspaper discussion of Gosplan's role, nor the reorganization law made provision for Gos- plan inspection of economic activities at the local level; and the theses specifically denied the agency the right to interfere in the administrative management of the economic administrative areas. At the USSR level its sole coercive weapon remained its right "6 submit major questions for consideration" to the USSR Council of Ministers and the Central Committee of the Communtsf Party. The subsequent discussion of Gosplan's role in the RSFSR and the Ukrainian ,SSR provides a somewhat greater degree of enlighten- ment. At the Fourth Session of the RSFSR Supreme Soviet, Yasnov declared not only that the RSFSR Gosplan must supervise continually the fulfillment of state plans but that it must "take operative measures" through the sovnarkhozy and ministries "to overcome any lag revealed in individual economic administrative regions or branches. Independently and with complete responsibility for matters entivsted [to it]," he pointed out, "the Gosplan of the RSFSR must solve opera- tional questions linked with guaranteeing fulfillment of the state plan.q To solve at least one part of the problem of supervision at the operative level, the Ukrainian government organized under the republic Gosplan three specialized supply departments for the purpose of achieving ta "unified system of material-technicil supply" fbr enterprises and building sites. According to the plan) these three departments-6-raw materials and materials, equipment, and supply organization and the control of material resources utilizaiion-- exercise control over 18 republic supply-distribution administrations whit+ in turn allocate moierials imported from other union-republics and export goods to other republics according to the national economic plan. , Although many details of the new economic dispensation re- mained clouded in the summer of 1957, the legislative enactments of the USSR Supreme Soviet and the republic Supreme Soviets drew the main outlines of the 8oviet Union's new system of economic management. Despite Khrushchev's emphasis upon decentralization, it was clear that the newisystem was aimed at increasing the effec- , tiveness -of centralized.domination of. the.USSR economy. . In this it spelled a return to the. Leninist principle that centralism is best realized through an organizational system which features 45 S E C R,E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 r SE C R,E T Part Two Fr Polittcal centralization of the decision-making process and decentralization of the execution of decisions. The removal of agencies, involved directly in production, from the center will certainly relieve the top leadership of much of the welter of administrative detail which has tended in the past to obscure and to obfuscate their participation in the crucial processes of rational policy forma- tion at the national level. At the same time, the retention of eight all-union ministries, involved in defense and defense-related production, will continue to afford the central authorities a direct channel of supervision and control over many of the most critical branches of industry. Moreover, the crucial features of central- ized control--centralized planning, ttle allocation of fixed and working capital, centralized price fixing, and control over distribu- tion--have been strengthened and reinforced. At the same time the authority and prestige of republic governments--and of republic Party organizations, since these bodies in practice will advance candidates for leading positions in the new administrative agencies--in economic matters has? been enhanced considerably. This is the crux of the decentralization, for the republic governments and, to some extent, the sovnarkhozy rill doubtless be called upon to exercise many of the routine adminis- trative functions now performed at the USSR ministerial level. Economic policy formation of a restricted nature will also be pos- sible at the republic level, but it will be geared closely to de- cisions taken previously at the center. Whether regional economic management will actually create a greater degree of economic efficiency, as Khrushchev has argued, is a question that will receive no final answer for many years. Elements of greater efficiencywere present in the removal of economic directing agencies and theltransfer of an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 officials to the scenes of production and in the latitude given to regional economic councils to solve local economic problems. But tendencies toward bureaucratic empire-building and industrial self-sufficiency are inherent in the Soviet system of production and distribution. The new economic dispensation will not eliminate them; it will merely postpone them and transfer them from the ministerial to the territorial level. During the period of transition to the new system, additional 46 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part 1"..w.,(2 I. Political complications, confusion and even a certain amount of passive re- sistance are inevitable. The ink was hardly dry on the RSFSR re- organization law before a' sovnarkhoz official was complaining that neighboring government agencies were refusing to deliver needed industrial supplies. In other cases, it was reported that trained specialists and technicians were? being relieved of production re- sponsibilities so that they might serve as administrators in the sovnarkhozy and the chairman of ehe sovnarkhoz protested in July that only 18 of 83 specialists requisitioned from Moskva had reported for duty. These and other reports reveal also that certain of the remaining all-union and republic industrial ministries have resisted orders to turn over agencies to local control and that supply and distribution organizations are in a turmoil. While economic considerations appear to have furnished the major motivating force for the reform, strategic military con- siderations may well have played an auxiliary role. From a purely military standpoint, reversion to the territorial productive princi- ple in economic organization will probably represent a net gain for the defensive capabilities of the USSR, even though the new economic regions do not appear to be coordinated with the'-odd Soviet mil- itary districts. Within the present century, Russia has learned two costly and historic lessons concerning the military importance of a proper distribution of its manpower and productive capacity. Defeat in the Russo-Japanese war showed the country's leaders the necessity for creating an independent economic Oase in the Far East; and Soviet planners took cognizance of the lesson by investing heavily in the economy of Trans-Baykal and the Maritime regions during the early Five-Year Plans. World War. II demonstrated the" necessity' necessity for creating a stable economic base'in the middle regions of Siberia and Central Asia; and this objective constitutes the critical goal of the Sixth Five-Year Plan. Khrushchev's system, therefore, represents a continuation of this trend in that if en- visages the establishment of regional economic entities capable of continuing production even though some of their number are lost or communication between them is interrupted. "If-this is how bourgeois politicians understand our reorganizationfh Khrushchev commented, "we shall not deny it." SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 4-7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SE CRET ,rt Two I. Poliiigg 3. ,gOvernment Control Centers The growth of USSR major and alternate government control centers and their distribution among the various administrative divisions reflect accurately economic development in the U$SR.1 Analysis of the political significance and subordination of these control centers provides an excellent guide for determining channels of control over the peoples and economy of the Soviet Union. In general, there has been a significant increase in the number of major and alternate control centers since 19O, reflecting increased ' urbanization and industrialization accompanied by an increase of administrative divisions in economically important areas, The capitals of 14- union republics and all cities of union- republic subordination in the RSFSR and Ukrainskaya SSR are the Soviet Unions most important major government control centers and may be considered alternate control centers for Moskva. In addi- tion to their all-union political and economic significance, most of these cities have Major military, transportation, and/or power control functions. Headquarters for 10 of the 20 military districts, 19 of the 45 railroad systems, and 23 of 'the 1+5regional power systems in the USSR are located within these cities (see Table 2-112). The USSR military establishment could be directed from any of these military headquarters, if the national headquarters in Moskva were incapacitated. Of the total number of major and alternate control centers, more than half are located in the RSFSR (see Table 2-1113 and Map MI including 47 per cent of major centers and 67 per cent of alternate centers. The largest concentrations are found in the Central Industrial Region, particularly in and around Moskovskaya Oblast, and the Urals. Outside the RSFSR the greatest concentration is in the Ukrainskaya SSR, which contains 37 per cent of all centers in the other 14 republics. 1Major control centers house executive agencies which exercise direct control over the population and all types of economic and civic activity within major administrative subdivisions of the USSR. They include union republic, ASSR, kray, and oblast capitals. Alternate control centers exercise administrative control over lesser areas. They contain skeletal prototypes of executive agencies in major centers and would probably assume the control functions of major centers if the latker were incapacitated. They include autonomousoblast and okrug capitals, and all urban centers of union republic, ASSR, kray, oblast, autonomous oblast, and okrug suboi-dination. (For complete list see Table A-1, Appendix). 48 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET Political Table 2-12 ADDITIONAL CONTROL FUNCTIONS OF SELECTED GOVERNMENT CONTROL CENTERS Hdqrs., Mili- Hdqrs., Hdqrs., Reg- -Lary District Railroad lona' Power CT Fleet System System Alma.Ata X X Ashkhabad X X Baku X X nhAlvakincak X X / Frunze X Gorkiy X X Kiyev X X X Kishinev X Krasnoyarsk X X Kuybyshev X X X Leningrad X X X Minsk X X X Molotov Novosibirsk X X X Omsk X X Riga X X X Rostov X X X Saratov X Sevastopol X 'SiOinabad X Stalingrad X Sverdlovsk X X X Tallin X Tashkent X X X Tbilisi X X X Viknyus X Yerevan X The most significant changes in the number and distribution of major and alternate control centers between 1540 and 1958 occurred in the Urals, Central Industrial, Western Siberian, and Eastern Siberian Regions of the RSFSR, and reflect the spectacular industrial development of these regions during and after World War I I. Seventy per cent of the total increase in major control centers occurred in the RSFSR, with the Central Industrial Region experiencing the great- est increase. The RSFSR accounis' for 81 per cent of the total increase in alternate centers, with the greatest increases occur& t'ihrg in the Central In4ustriml znd HrAlc Regions. The slight de- crease in the number of major centers in Turkmenskaya SSR and of both major and alternate centers in Tadzhikskaya SSR reflects a )49 SECRET 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 in Part - Sanitized Copy A proved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 , Part Two SECRET Table 2-13 Political USSR MAJOR AND ALTERNATE GOVERNMENT CONTROL CENTERS BY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION: 1540, 1958 Administrative Division Per Cent Change ...1940-58 Total USSR 4.18 608 45 Total Major 128 153 20 Total Alternate 290 1465 Russian SFSR Major Alternate 172 305 77 Northwestern Regiona 28 42 50 Major 6 7 17 Alternate 22 35 Central Industrial Region 71 116 Major 18 27 Alternate 53 89 Volga Region 13 22 69 Major 5 6 20. Alternate 8 16 100 Southeastern Region 31 37 19 Major 8 8 Alternate 23 29 26 Urals Region 33 69 109 Major 6 6 Alternate 27 63 133 West Siberian Region 21 38 81 Major 3 7 133 Alternate 18 31 72 East Siberian Region 11+ 26 86 Major 5 5 Alternate 9 21 1..),..) Far Eastern Region b 11+ 27 93 Major 2 6 200 Alternate 12 21 75 225 377 72 36 68 53 59 63 50 68 1111011111111?1 Ukrainskaya SSR Major Alternate Beloruaskaya SSR Major Alternate Uzbekskaya SSR Major Alternate 77 85 10 22 26 18 55 59 7 17 18 6 9 7 -22 8 11 38 25 30 20 6 10 67 19 20 5 aIncludes Kaliningradskaya Oblast, 1958; also Karelskaya SSR in 1540 and 1958. bOblast capitals subordinate to Khabarovskiy Ktay in 1940 and 1957 are included as alternate centers. 50 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A proved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R0024onwonnp_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two Table 2-13 (continued) Administrative Kazakhskaya SSR Major Alternate nrnzinskaya.SSR Major Alternate Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Major Alternate Litovskaya SSR Major Alternate Moldavskaya SSR Major Alternate Latviyskaya SSR Major Alternate Kirgizskaya,SSR Major Alternate Tadzhikskaya SSR Major Alternate Armyanskaya SSR Major Alternate Tyrkmenskaya SSR Major Alternate Eston'skaya SSR Major Alternate SECRET Political Number Per Cent Change, 14iQ58 18 25 39 14 16 11+ 9 125 7 10 3 3 7 )4 6 2 2 100 )24. 8 100 1 1 3 7 133 1+.7 75 1 1 3 6 100 5 6 20 1 1 14- 5" 25 9 12 33 5 6 20 1 6 50 8 9 13 4- 2 -50 4 7 75 2 3 50 1 1 1 2 100 9 7 -22 5 1 -20 1+ 3 -25 4 5 25 1 1 3 1+ 33 )-1-3 IOW 75' OW OMB consolidation o administrative-territorial divisions in these republics. In view of a recent policy statement by Khrushchev call-. ing for increased decentralization of-economic control, the control responsibilities of many of the alternate centers will probably increase. 51 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part "Ala II. _EMOTION AND MANPOWER A. Total Population 1. Variations in Soyiet Policies on Statistics Judging by their guarded secrecy, the Soviet government of the Stalinist era attributed far more significance to their popula- tion statistics than did any other government in the world. The presumable motive of withholding military and-ecOnomic information from potential -enemies was apparently reinforced by a desire to conceal certain facts (such as the extent of population imam 4,WWW the period of enforced collectivization) from the Soviet people themselves. And as a corollary to the policy of suppression, and in direct contrast to Russia's advances in other fields of science, the study of population within the Soviet Union was pursued on? an exceedin2ly primitive level. The policy of suppressing population and manpower statistics was rigorously pursued in the late 1930s. The regular statistical series on wage and salary earners did not appear after 1936, and the all-union population census of 1937 was suppressed in toto. Only summary data comprising less than ten pages were released from the all-union census of 1939, in striking contrast to the publica- tion in some 50 volumes of the 1926 census results. A year later, on the eve of the German invasion, an official handbook on education- al statistics appeared. Understandably, only scraps of data were published during World War II. The German advance into Soy(fet terri- tory encompassed an area which previously had been inhabited by some 85 million persons; and one aspect of the severe disruption of life during this period was the impossibility of collecting and publishirig population data. Although a scattering of material appearing in the reconstruc- tion period of 194547 included several significant items, it seem- ingly was a selective presentation. Aieksandrov, the director of the Communist Party's propaganda and agitation organization, stated on 22 January 1946 that the Soviet Union's population totaled 193 million, a figure which indicates that war losses were 15 million below those now implied by official Soviet'data' Various demographers have observed that Aleksandrov's figure corresponds to the announced prewar population of the Soviet Union. It was presented as if it 52 SEC RE T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECR T Part Two I. Political were the then current population, however, and included a rein- forcing remark that 100 million had been born since the Revolution. This latter figure could not have been derived from the previous Soviet all-union census of 1939 so must have been derived from a new estimate. In March 1946 Stalin announced, as a result of the German invasion the Soviet Union has irrevocably lost...about 7 million people." The Soviet historian Tarle in a 1947 broadcast from Moskva then spoke of the "7 million Soviet soldiers (italics added) who laid down thAir livec [in the war]." Stalin wAs thmt total losses amounted to 7 million, even specifying the individual categories, yet lane's specified loss of 7 million soldiers is more in conformance with western estimates of Soviet military casualties. It is difficult to distinguish between lack of data and attempts at deception during this period. Aleksandrov may not have had new data on the size of the total population, but he certainly knew that it was not 193 million, as stated. Stalin cannot possi- bly have had accurate war loss data, but he certainly knew that war losses were higher than 7 million. And if one conjectures that Stalin was deliberately being deceptive, he then is faced with explaining why lane was permitted to criticize western interpreta- tions of Stalin's statement. It is evident, however, that precise population data were not available as late as 1 7. In that year it was announced that the Academy of Medical Science and the Ministry of Public Health were to investigate and study Soviet vital rates and their trends, migration, and the effects of war on the population. The results of this planned study were never released, although 1950 marked the end of the Fourth Five-Year Plan. Although reconstruction was certainly essentially completed by 1948-49 and it is known that important measures were being taken to improve the internal flow of data concerning rural pop:dation and labor force to branches of the Soviet government, such material was not published. In this period, too, Soviet statisticians attempted to conceal and distort the wartime birth deficit by reporting only total enrollment in schools after 1949. Instead of reporting enroll- ment in the general school (grades 1-10) separately, as had been 5.3 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 ,SCR ET Part Two I 11 Popullirons ad ManP9wer the Soviet practice, to the number in the general school were added students in tekhnikums and related institutions. A similar decep- tion was practiced with regard to housing: in order to cloak the serious housing shortage Soviet statisticians reported total re- sidential floor space rather than living space (which excludes certain nonliving areas). Western scholars, however, recognized these deceptions, and in recently published Soviet literature the true situation has been delineated. Stalin's last days represent the nadir of social science statistins in the qovictrt Union, when the policy of suppression reached an all-time peak. Outright deception, however, seems to have been the exception rather than the rule; rather, the figures were manipulated, and even manipulated figures must? have some basis in reality. Infinitely more important than the instances of out- right deception was the failure to publish data. Virtually the whole flow of information was cut off, which, in effect, amounted to deception. The picture that emerges in Stalin's last days is of a government unwi 1 ling to face real i ty?the enormity of war losses, the enormity of the birth deficit, unparalleled in the history of any modern nation, and the economic and social con- sequences of a rutal population seriotiSly depleted of males in the prime of life. Not until 1955-56 was the policy of suppressing population data relaxed. Previously unpublished statistics from the 1939 census were released and in 1956 the first of a new series of official handbooks, Narodnoye khozyaysitSSS9,.appeared. This handbook included general data on population and manpower as :well as data on vital rates which had not been published regularly since the late 1920s. It was followed in rapid succession by Sovetskaya torgovlya, doling primarily with trade by., including rates which make it possible to infer a 1955/ distribution of Soviet population among the ?blasts,'and- J.L.ILtuinme.L_troitelstvo., which presented an abundance of' material on education at the general and higher school levels. Three other handbooks were released early in 1957: ft.:.2whlennost ,S$SR which included a republic distribution of workers and employe:es in industry; Narodnove khozvavstvo RSFSR,list in urban centers in the RSFSR which have a population of at least 50,000 and/or the status of oblast, ASSR, or autonomous oblast 51+ SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET ,Part Two 114...E2Rgiftiion and Manpower centers; and a new edition of IlalzingmislauxultajgElAich in- cludes population figures for all ()blasts of the USSR and 1956 birth and death rates. A bulletin or pamphlet dealing explicitly with Soviet population (Naseleniyeigle was to have been published in the first quarter of 1957 and may already be available in the Soviet Union. This publication is to include data on Soviet popom ulation and its distribution by administrative divisions, including the urban-rural distribution of the population of each oblast. Still more important, the Soviet government apparently is going ahead with plans for 'a new all-union populaon census, which is plant* for January 1959. It is important to ascertain how post-Stalin policies differ from those of his last days. The most significant difference seems to be in the increased availability of data. In reading some of the new books, hciwever7 one still has the impression that the Soviet world is being viewed through a screen held selectively upon differ- ent aspects of Soviet life. In a few cases it can be demonstrated that Soviet statisticians are aitempting to conceal the facts, as in the case of the crude labor force percentages presented in N rod o e Khoz a stvo U1(1956), although in this instance the very primitiveness of the definitions is also impressive. Fortunately, there are few such instances surprisingly enough, some of the leading relics of the Stalinist era, such as the contrived 1939 social classification of population repurted in most earlier Soviet writings on population, are excluded from the new materials. In general, however, the new data are imperfect and approximate, are often crudely expressed, and lack the methodological footnotes and technical explanations befitting a modern demographic study. An outstanding exception appears in Sovetskaya torgovlyal where a footnote indicates that percentages have been computed before round- ing the basic figures--a type of technical detail which virtually disappeared from Soviet works during the last two decades. The proposed 1959 census will undoubtedly be held, for the Soviet Union desperately needs population and manpower data for planning purposes in view of the new strains now apparent in her economy, a situation which will soon worsen when remnants of the wartime and immediate postwar deficit years enter the labor force. It is doubtful, however, that the forthcoming census will be published 55 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRE I Part Two H.Pc.....2.ition.And Manpower in detail, and researchers will probably be forced to continue working with approximations derived from summary results and scattered local returns. Such was the case in some of the more recent censuses in eastern European countries after they came under Soviet domination. 2. Total POulation: 1958 Extrapolation of official Soviet population data indicate a population of 206.3 million, as of 1 January 1958. This figure is utilized throughout The 1958 Annual Estimates, despite evidence that the official Soviet estimate of 200.2 million for April 1956, used as a base, involves an underenumeration of 1 to 10 million. The decision to use the Soviet figure is motivated by two practical considerations, apart from the obvious gain in terms of convenience and usefulness in maintaining direct comparability among various types of Soviet data: 1) there are no data which. yield a firm. estimate of the."true" population; and 2) although some data at the national level suggest the general magnitude of underenumer-, ation, none has been found usable in terms of differential distri- bution of the assumed underenumeration among administrative divisions of the USSR. Evaluation. The "official" Soviet population figures for 1950-56 are based on a system of population registers which are subject to many errors of omission and incorrect registration. Populations of isolated areas and the most mobile groups (e.g., young adult in-migrants to cities) are often omitted; certain seg- ments of the population are omitted in part, as in the underregi- stration of births and deaths and the failure to register children of migrants even when ti.e parents are registered. Incorrect regi- stration mainly cpncerns the double registration of an individual, in particular some migrants who are counted both as residents of the.areas which they leave and residents of the areas into which they migrate Intentional errors are also included, as in the failure "?o report manpower on collective farms in order to minimize the labor supply which might have to be released for other state uses, and the failure to register births out of wedlock to avoid the stigma of such births and to make it possible for these children to use their father's name. At local levels, efforts apparently are made io adjust the registration data. The recording secretary of the local selsovet 56 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RnpFti_n-inAwnne, ..... Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower is instructed to reconcile his own registry of birth5and deaths, ?name by name, against the official listing prepared by the agency in charge of registering vital statistics. This type of reconcili- ation, however, cannot possibly influence the errors which lie out- side the scope of both systems. With regard to the more important errors, such as those pertaining to population groups on the move, double listings for checking purposes are not available to the local authorities. And the massive agglomerations of populations at higher levels preclude any name-by-name crosschecking. Although a tear-off coupon system is in effect for "permanent" migrants to and from cities, Soviet authorities, including Boyarskiy (1955), consider the data Oh migrants defective and unreliable. At the national level, it would appear to be still more difficult to rectify the Soviet registration data, in view of the increased scope of the problAm;Ii and .the lack ^A^^garn muuw4vugv ing adjustments made at lower levels. Samples could be employed, but thene is only fragmentary evidence that this type of sample of population has been made in the Soviet Union. And, since the first edition of Narodnoy.e. khozyayetvo,SSSR s"sent for typesetting on ,6 April 1956," time considerations also militate against precise adjustments. The registry data are collected as of 1 January and forwarded to the regional statistical offices by 28 January. This leaves little time for processing and analysis at the all-union level. Furthermore, final tabulatbns on births and deaths' apparently are not available until several months after the preliminary tabu- lations are obtained. Thus, in April 1951+ Mikoyan reported a death rate for 1953 of 8.9 per 1,000 inkabitants. Narodno-elvo two years later reported a figure for 1953, presumably the result of a more complete tabulation, of 9.0 per 1,000. Also, in January 1957 a death rate of 8.2 per 1,000 was reported for the year 1955, as compared with the figure of 8.14 per 1,000 for the same year re- ported in Narodnoye khozyaystvo in April 1956. To the above points must be added the apparent unconcern of Soviet authorities for glaring inaccuracies in their population statistics. For example, in Narodnomel, the 1940 popu- lation of the Soviet Union by official estimate is reported no 191.7 million, excluding "the areas given to Poland by the treaty of 1945 which had a population of 1.4 million persons." When in 5,7 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 in Part - Sanitized Co .y Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part ?Two II. Population 04 Manpower Moskva, Warren Eason, of Princeton University, queried the respon- sible Soviet authority as to the time reference for the estimate and was told that it was an "annual average for 1940" and specif- ically that it included the natural increase of the population within the 1939 Soviet boundaries. Comparison of returns from the 1939 census for republics ,not affected by the bound4ry changes and Soviet annexations reveals that the data cited inhitmlauft ,khozyaystvo for 1940 are identical to the 1939 census returns? for these areas. Furthermore, "1940" population data derived from Sovetskaya torgovlya for oblasts and selected cities are identical to data of the 1939 census in cases where no internal boundary changes occurred. The effect of this exclusion of the natural irderease within the 1939 boundaries is to understate the true 1 population within these boundaries by at least 3 million. Estimated Underenumeration. It is not possible to study available data without obtaining an impression of signi- ficant inaccuracies, and errors of underenumeration appear to out- weigh those of overenumration. Characteristically in population counts underenumeration tends to outweigh overenumerat ion, even in modern censuses. The most objective Ota pertinent to the problem are Soviet statistics showing the birth rate in the 1950-55 period and regular statistics covering school enrollment and eligible voters. These materials maybe 'used to build up an esti- mate of the age composition of the Soviet population which can be used to assess the size of the total population. The 0-6 age group is estimated from-the reported birth rates; the 7-17 age group is derived from school enrollment data; and the population age 18 and above, from lists of eligible voters. Unfortunately, these compon- ents cannot beiestimated with precision, partly as a result of the need for modifying the materials to allow for underregistration of births, for infant and child mortality between birth and age 6, and for adults legally ineligible to vote. An estimaie derived in this way, however, implies that the reported population for 1956 underrepresents the trcie population by 3 to 10 million. If this is the degree of underenumeration, the performance of the Soviet authorities should be commended, for the error would amount to only 2.5=5 per cent. Even full-fledged population censuses often yield far from perfect results, as indicated by the fact that in the U.S., 58 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-n1n4npnn9Annnormnr, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 ? SECRET Part Two I Ppu1ation and Manpower where no such serious dislocations of population occurred as in the Soviet Union during World War II, the 1950 census is thought to have an underenumeration of 2 to 3 per cent, 3. Changes in Total Population, 1913-61 For the first time in 15 years, the Soviet government has published official statistics showing the size of the USSR's popu- lation for selected years 1913-56 (see Table 244). Data are shown in AaL94144L511:24m5141,ASSRIer 1926 and 1939 from the two all- union population censuses of these years. Data for 1913, 1540, and 1956 are "officialleptimates," the latter two? referring to the present boundaries of the'Soviet Union. And in this same volume, Table 241- CHANGES IN USSR POPULATION: 1913-61 (Selected Years) Average Annual Population Growth or Decline L1114.2.1nIs (in Per Cent 17 September 199 Iloundaries 1913 I39.3a 1926-7 147.0b 1939 ? Present boundaries 1540 191,7a 1950 (1 Jan.) 180.00 1956 (April) 200.2a 1958 (1 Jan.) 206.3c 1961 216.3c 0:341- 1.338 - 0.610 1,796 1.741 1,616 aOfficial Soviet estimates. , (The 1 'official estimate" is actually the total population from the 1939 all-union census, plus crude adjustments for the annexed areas.) .b Data from all-union population census. The 1939 total published in 1940 has been adjusted slightly upward, representing the final tabulation of the 1939 census returns. ARD extrapolation from official Soviet esti- mate, based on reported annual rates of natural in- crease of populatiOn for 1950,..55. 5,9 SECRET 1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 11.1__Eagiftim_and_limem the annual rate of natural increase of population for 1950-55 is also reported, which makes it possible to impute an "official es- timate" of the size of the USSR's population in 1950 and subse- quent years to 195'6. World War I'and Civil War. Russia had an average annual growth of only 0.354- per cent from 1913 to 1926, and the population loss involved in this low rate of increase can better be appreciated if one compares the actual population in 1926 with the expected population on the basis of "normal" trends in the rate of growth of population of 1.66 per cent per annum. The ex- pected population of 1926 would have been 172 million, in compar- ison with the population enumerated in the 1926 census of 147 million. The difference of 25 million can be attributed to the excess deaths of the subsequent Civil War and its attendant as- pects of famine and widespread epidemics. The major components of the figure, exceeding 20 million, were civilian excess deaths and birth deficits. Military casualties and emigration together amounted totonly about -i-'million of the total loss. Collectivization and Famine. The rate of population growth in the period 1926-1939 was much higher than in 1913-1926, and amounted to 1.3 per cent annum. Nevertheless, the actual population shown by the census in 1939 was 6 million below the expected population. This 6 million represents losses from the Soviet collectivization program of the early 1930's partic- ularly from famine. World War II. The Second World War not only swallowed up the whole natural increase of Soviet population between 1940 and 1950, but also led to an outright decline of population. If the reported Soviet population data for the prewar and postwar years are assumed to be accurate, the decline of population would amount to 0.6 per cent per annum. The 1 Soviet population figure reported intNarodnoye ktmaxlialuir is known to be in- correct, however, and a better estimate than the reported 191.7 million probably would be 196 million. In the absence of the war, the Soviet population could have been expected to increase by at least 1.5 per cent per annum, the decline in the death rate off- setting or more than offsetting the decline in the birth rate. Given this hypothesis, the population in 1950 would be expected to number about 225 million persons, or 45 million more than the 60 SECRET im,,,,Inecifiori in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two ii4.22PulatiorLITELAMME figure of 180 million to be derived from Soviet data. If, on the other hand, the figure of 180 million represents an underenumer- ation of 3-10 million, the implied population deficit in the war and immediate postwar period decreases to 35-42 million. School enrollment statistics covering the first four grades of school in 1950-56 indicate a decrease in the number of children by 11 million as of 1950 if compared with the prewar period, as a consequence mainly of birth deficit and to a lesser extent of excess mortality in the years 1943-50. Migratory losses amounted to 3 million, military losses are reported to have been 7 million, and civilian losses are thought to have constituted about 10 million. The sum of these groups exceeds 30 million, although the extent to which the estimate of civilian losses may exclude or include other known losses not directly related to the war is not clear. indirect losses include excess mortality resulting from terroristic practices by the Soviet government in deporting various groups as well as excess mortality of inmates of Soviet concentration camps, the ex- cess mortality in the immediate postwar period of servicement total- ly disabled during the war, and excess mortality from the drought and other causes in 1946-47. Despite the enormity of the? figure, it seems likely that Soviet losses during World War (I may have totalled 35 million, or, excluding the birth deficit, an outright 1--- OM# UI MIIIIVflo 1116151510, Although the degree of change in Soviet population in the immediate postwar years is not known for the period 1946-49, changes in these years can be inferred in part. Published data suggest that births exceeded deaths during 1949 by?more?than 3 million. In 1947 the death rate was so highl it is unlikely that births exceeded deaths by more than 15 million. Interpolating between 1947 and 1949, births would have exceeded deaths by some 2 million in 1948. The combined increase for 1947,a0i under these assumptions, was 6-7 million. It is doubtful that any increase of population occurred during the year 1946. There may even have been 1The Minister of Public Health announced in Pravda (23 April. 19)4-9) that "the mortality of the population in 01177;;-: lower by 27 per cent than that of 1947 and 12 per cent lower in comparison with the last prewar years." Thus, mortality in 1547 was 21 per cent higher than before the war, or 21-22 per 1,000 inhabitants. 61 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECR ,E T Part Two and Manpower a net decrease of population as a result of the drought-created famine in the western regions of the USSR in that year. Also, it seems likely that the death rate in 1946 would be inflated by excess mortality of totally disabled soldiers who, characteristically, have an extremely high death rate in the years immediately following disablement. 1950116... Between 1950 and 1956 the average annual growth of Soviet population, following official Soviet data, was 1.8 per cent. The high level of the immediate prewar period had once again been reached. The main factor in this high rate of growth was the strikingly low death rate, whereaa before World War II the high rate was the product of a high birth rate and a high death rate. 1956-62. The rate of population growth in the Soviet Union is expected to taper off between 1956 and 1958 and decrease even more in the 1958-62 period, under the assumption of a gradual decline in fertility, while the low level of death rate remains constant or even increases somewhat owing to an increased propor- tion of older persons in the population. However, in these two periods there is no reason to expect any drastic change in popula- tion growth, whereas in the years that follow a sharp reduction in the rate of population increase is anticipated. The number of potential parents will be drastically reduced as those born during the war and postwar birth-deficit years begin to enter the marrying ages (the main child-bearing period is from ages 20 through 34). The first significant wartime birth deficit year was 1943; this reduced cohort will become age 20 in 1963 and in successive sub- sequent years will be joined by at least two more age cohorts drastically reduced by birth deficits in the years of their birth. Thereafter, the number of potential parents will stabilize at a somewhat higher level. 4, g,ftilamphic Distribution of USSR Population. The Soviet handbook, Sovetskaya torgovlya (1955), presents data expressing relationships between population and various aspects of trade. Although the relationships are expressed in the form of rates, the degree of rounding is slight, with the result that the population statistics used in preparing the handbook can be derived with only an insignificant degree of error. In this way, population 62 S E C R,E I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 11.2.122Ruitihn_1124,MatREAL statistics have been derived for the USSR as a whole, for its con- stituent republics, and for autonomous areas and oblasts for 1939/40 and 055 (see Table A4, Appendix). Comparison of the total pop- ulation figure of 197,539,000 derived from data in the trade volume with the figure 200.2 million reported in ImplIngyftmmatta in April 1956 suggests that the 1955 statistids refer to the middle (1 July) of 1955. Despite evidence of the existence of underenumerationl the 1955 geographic distributions of population derived from Soviet estimates are considered fairly accurate representations of the true geographic distribution of population. This statement, how- ever, should be qualified in two important ways:, 1) Soviet popula- tion estimates for 1955 (as shown in Table A4), as well as more summary data by union republics for 1956, shown in Nar261401 IllauLaylly9Apildo not reflect the actual distribution of the population; and 2) underenumeration tends characteristically to have significant area differentials. A de facto, or actual, population count is an enumeration of the population present in a given area at a given time. An alternative method of counting, often utilized in population cen- suses, is to assess the number of legal residents, or de jurt population. Soviet practice represents a combination of these two methods. Thus, in the' 1939 census, forced laborers were not listed as inhabitants of the places in which they were actually located in 1939, but as inhabitants of their birthplaces or places of trial or arrest. Military personnel, on the other hand, are thought to have been included in the census in terms of their actual residence, except in the case of naval p4sonne1, where the base of operation was used as the place of legal residenm. Since the "1940" Soviet data in reality are a reproduction of the results of the 1939 cen- sus, it is obvious that these figures as reported in Table Aal- are comparable in definition to the 1939 census. The same appears true with the 1955 and 1956 population data. Thus, the reported population by union republics adds exactly to the reported all- union population (a de facto count would show about 500,000 Soviet citizens residing abroad). Also, in the case or the stu- dent and voting populations it is known that a de facto enumeration procedure is followed. Comparison of voters and school children 63 SECRET 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET , Part Two 112-19PulatiTIMIAN112ME, by union republic with SoViet estimates of total population in each republic reveal glaring discrepancies* For example, in Estonia the voting and student populations alone constitute more than 90 per cent of the reported population, which could not possiblii be true. The explanation is that undoubtedly the population estimates do not represent de facto enumOrations. Underenumeration tends characteristically to have signi- ? ficant area differentials*? For example, on the eve of World War II it was reported that underenumeration of population in the Soviet Union was greatest within the more backward areas. Also, election data underrepresent the population more in the areas of most rapid population increase. Projection of Data, 1955-58.. Soviet data showing the geo- graphic distribution of population by oblast were projected to ?J January 1958 as follows: ? 1., The rate of population increase 1955-56, derived from 1955 oblast data appearing in Sovetskaya torgovlya and 1956 data in Laadnilyt_khaatatto (1956), was used to project the 1956 population to 1 January 1958. 2. Certain adjustments were made to allow for the repatri- ation of ethnic groups deported in 1943-14 from North Caucasus areas. 3. The figures were then forced to the previously calculated republic totals. Results. The geographic distribution of population in 1939/40, 1955, and 1958, presented in detail in Table Ali., are summarized in Tables 2-15, 2-16, and 2-17. Table 2-15 shows the distribution of USSR population by broad areas. While European USSR still accounts'for' the great mass of the Soviet Union's population, its share of the national total dropped from 82.2 per cent in 1939 to 78.5 per cent in 1955. Mean- while, Asiatic Russials proportion increased from 17.8 to 21.5 per cent. Between 1939 and 1955 Asiatic USSR had an average annual growth of populati'on' of about 2 percent, as compared with only 1.6 per cent in the prewar period 1926-39* This difference resulted from prewar collectivization losses in Kazakhstan; and considering Asiatic USSR apart from Kazakhstan, the average annual rate of population growth in the 1926-39 period was 2.9 per cent, or more than double the 1939-55 rate of the same area of 1.3 per cent per year. 61+ SECR ,E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: Fam---- , Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET 11,....112,tion and Manpower , Table 2-15 DISTRIBUTION OF USSR POPULATION BY MAJOR AREA: 1939/4a, 1955, 1958 Area 1232Z941! European USSR 158,219 Asiatic USSR 14-43643 TOTAL 12,582 ? (MIUMLAI 7 \1VUMVV4Q ? spft All 11,;lainnAAn) 111.Ww, 153,091 2 14143 197,539 In Per Cent of Total European USSR 82.2 78.5 77.8 Asiatic USSR 17.8 , 21.5 22.2 160,572 .162a. 206,293 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 aBased on 1939 census for the old territory of the USSR and on official estimates for the annexed areas. ?Based on data presented in Sovetskaya torgoylya. cExtrapolation of 1955 data. Table 2-16 AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH OF USSR POPULATION, BY MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION: 1939/40-55and 1955-58 e Div is1 Russian SFSR Northwestern Region Central Industrial Region Volga Region Southeastern Region Urals Region West Siberian Region East Siberian Region ,Far Eastern Region Ukraimskaya .SSR Be lorysskaya ,SSR Uzbekskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Gruzinekaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Litovekaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikikaya SSR Armyangkaya SSR Tur menskaya SSR Estonikaya SSR TOTAL 65 .SECRET 0.1.9 0+7 -0.62 0.05 0.18 1.43 1.02 1.29 3095 -0.23 -0.88 0.80 2.02 0.59 0.20 -0.57 0. 0)40 1,76 1.04 1045 0,42 0.33 0.16 1.76 1.80 le0Lf 0.96 2,32 2008 3.16 di+ .88 1.48 1.16 3.88 1.36 2.80 0.80 1.64- 0.16 2048 2.76 2.48 1.88 -0.04 1076 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 1,14.22:1.21 and Manpower , Two factors have been of prime importance in the eastward shift of the Soviet Union's center of population: 1) The incidence of war losses was much higher in European Russia; and 2) there has been a steady flow of migants from the western to the eastern territories. With the present emphasis on the industrialization of Siberia and Kazakhstan and with continuing agricultural colon- ization connected in part with ihe new lands program, it can be expected that Asia's share in the over-all population of the \USSR will continue to grow. The decline in European Russia's proportion of the Soviet Union's populatbn can best be understood through a discussion of its various regions (see Tables 2-16 and 2-417). Four areas of European Russia--the Central Industrial Region of the RSFSR, and the Ukrainskaya, Belorusskaya, and Litovskaya,SSRs--have a lower population and consequently represent a less significant segment of the USSR total than in 1939/40. In all cases this results primarily from the heavy concentration of war losses in these areas during World War di., Even in recent years, however, their Share of the national whole has declined. Except for the Central Industrial Region, populations of the territories of the European RSFSR have increased. In the North- western Region the rate of increase was above the national average in the 1939/40-55 period but during 1955-58 was below average, In the Southeastern Region the growth was above average in both periods while in the Volga Region it was below average. Population within the two Baltic republics of Latvia and Estonia increased more slowly than did the over-all population of the Soviet Union in the earlier period. War losses were heavy in both areas, but Russian in-migration tended to counteract their depressive effect. Since 1955, the population of Latvia has con- tinued to increase, while that of Estonia has remained static. The rate of growth in the Transcaucasian republics was be- low average between 1939 and 1955, except in the Armyanskaya,SSR which in the years 1946-47 received a large number of immigrants. Since 19555 however, Armenia's and Azerbaydzhan's growth has been considerably above that of the USSR as a whole, although in Georgia where the natural increase is relatively low for the area the rate has been below the national average. 66 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-n1r4lpnn9Annnonnrm Declassified I in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-01111111 ? Part Two Administrative Division Russian SFSR Northwestern Region Central Industrial Region Volga Region Southeastern Region Urals Region West Siberian Region East LiberianRegion Far Eastern Region Ukrainskaya SSR Belorusskaya SSR Uzbekskaya'SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Litovskaya SSR Table 2-17 POPULATION OF THE USSR BY MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION: 1939/40, 1955, and 1958 Population (in thousands) 1939.Atg July 1955b 1 Jan. 11958c 108,1442 111,856 (8,1+65) (9025) 0+99374) (41+5337) (9,823) (9,897) (101564) (10,880) (12,)+74) (1591+22) (9,904) (11,569) (59275) (69397) (2,563) (4,229) 419831 40,240 9,249 7,909 6,333 7,172 6,051+ 8,121 3,570 3,920 312o6 3,311 2,925 2,650 116,761 (99532) (1+5,)+70) (10,135) (11,507) (16,220) (1 2,1481 ) (6,881) 0+,535) 41,733 8,142 79V+ 8,907 4,055 3,543 2,704 _II. Population and Manpower Per Cent of Total JEla .1.255 1253. 56$ 56.6 56.6 (4.10 0+06) (4.6) (2507) (22.5) (22.0) (5.1) (5.0) (4.9) (5.5) (5.5) (5.6) (6.5) (7.8) (7.9) (5.1) (5.9) (6.1) (2.7) (3.2) (3.3) (1.3) (2.1) (2.2) 21.7 20.14 20.2 4.0 3.9 3,3 3.6 3.7 3.2 4.1 4.3 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3 aBased on 1939 census for the old territory of the USSR and official Soviet estimates for the annexed territories. bgased on data presented in Sovetskaya torgovlya. cProjection of 1956 data on basis of 1955-56 rate of increase. millim=mmostimmimmmilm Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R0024000200090111111111.1 Part Two Table 2-17 (continued) Administrative Division Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR TOTAL Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-91111111 Population (in thousands) 1939140a July 1955b 1 Jan. 1958c 2,500 1,901+ 1,45S 1,282 1,252 1,052 192,582 2,030 1,880 1,740 1,590 1,340 i,1)+0 197,539 217149 2,039 1,996 1,860 1,688 1,403 1,139 206,293 111111111111111111111Msified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1_1. Population and Manpower Per 1939/40 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 Cent of Total 1951_ 1958 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 DZ) rn Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two liA,IERLItiaLATLANamm Asiatic Russia's relatively high rate of population in- crease is reflected in all of its regions. Without exception the rate of growth has been above the national average. Of the various regions of the Asiatic RSFSR, the Far East grew most rapidly in the earlier period, while West Siberia showed the greatest growth in the later period. In both cases in-migration was a significant factor in the increase. Two other factors in West Siberia's growth have been the new lands and the eastern industrialization programs. Of the areas of Asiatic Russia outside the RSFSR, Kazakhstan shows the mpst rapid rate of growth. It has risen from fifth to third place in number of inhabitants while its proportion of the over-all population will have increased from 3.2 per cent to an estimated 4..3 per cent by 1 January 1958. In the World War II period this growth resulted largely through the evacuation of pop- ulation? from the threatened western border regions of the USSR, and in the postwar years through agricultural colonization and immigration to the republic's rapidly growing industrial centers, Of all the areas of Asiatic Russia, the republics of Central Asia show the lowest rate of population increase. In the earlier period many wartime evacuees from European Russia came into the area, but the great majority returned to their homes after the war. Since 1955, the concentration on the development of Siberia and Kazakhstan has probably drawn off many of the migrants that other- wise would have come to Central Asia. Consequently, net in-migration has been low, exercising a restraining influence on population growth. Population Redistribution Produced by Calamities and Migra- tion. The existence of data for 1939/40 and for 1955 makes it possible to study thee-geographic redistribution of Soviet population within a'1&1/2. year period. if each subarea of the. Soviet Union' had increased by the same proportion as did-the total population of the Soviet Union. in the -1939-55 'period, the geo- graphic distribution of the. population would ,have remained constant. This hypothetical assumption. is used to measure actual differences in the growth or decline. of area populations (see Table 2-!18).. The areas have been grouped so as to gain maximum comparability with an earlier study of redistribution of Soviet population by 69 SECRET 1 IDeclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part !Two SECRET 1142220AliSTLEISLAMEMIL , Table 2-18 TOTAL POPULATION CHANGES 1897-1926, 1926-39, and 1939-55 (Numbers in thousands) Redistribution of Increment (+) 2r Decrement ..........WAXICRA,...!..... 1897719261 1926-39.c 1939-55 European USSRb -3,69+ -51258 -10,365 Belorussia _ 176 - 209 - 1,578 Ukraine 407 - 2,712 - 2,617 CentralABlack Soilc _ 263 - 2,576 - 2,426 Western . 380 - 1,372 - 2,241+ Old Industrial Centere _ 208 + 2,666 + 218 ? Northern (Leningrad, Karelia-Murmansk, Northeast) - 542 + 1,388 - 939 Vyatka and Tatar - 1,462 , - 279 - 679 ? Central Volga - 639 - 1,903 . 222 Lower Volga and Don 89 - 629 _ 251 ? Crimea - 12 299 . 51 North Caucasus and Dagestan 316 + 69 . 52 Ba1t1elst4es', Kalinin-f grads6ya.0., Moldavia .. + 476 Transcaucasus . 356 + 1,227 555 Urals. Bashkir, and Asiatic USSR + IF 419 + 31257 + 6, Urals Urals and Bashkir - 127 + 11194 West Siberia + 2,953 + 83 ++ N161.96 Central Siberia + 853 + 514 --1-- 779 East Siberia - 17 + 567 + 208 Soviet Far East + 757 + 899 + 1,602 Kazakhstan + 186 - 897 +? 1,873 Central Asia - 565 + 1,671 + 1,333 TOTAL USSR 5',i5IF +10,577 +11,059 - 5,154 -10, -11,059 aFrank Lorimer, The Population of the Soviet Union, League of Nations, Geneva (1946), p. 170. elncludes districts of Gorkiy, Ivanovo, Moskva, Ryazan, Tula, and Yaroslavl. bExcludes Urals and Bashkir (included with Asiatic USSR). clncludes districts of Kursk, Orel, Tambov, and Voronezh. dlncludes districts of Kalinin and Smolensk, fAreas annexed by USSR at end of 1939. 70 SE CRZ T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop A proved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower Frank Lorimer, covering the periods 1897-1926 and 1926-39. For ter- ritories annexed by the Soviet Union after 1540, no comparability can be achieved, but for the remainder of the Soviet Union the areas are approximately comparable. Predistribution increment or decrement, as shown in Table 2-18, is the product of several factors, apart from any question of the accuracy of the data. Of great importance is the factor of differential exposure of various areas' to calamities, such as World War I, the Civil War, the famine and the epidemic years of 1921-22, collectivization of the Ivarly 1930s, and World War II. Also of basic significance is the factor of internal migration (international migration, although significant in the western pro- vinces following several of Russia*s calamities, has never been as important as in the more developed European nations a America). Internal migration often acts to fill in the irregularities of pop- ulation distribution created by calamities. Immediately after World War for example differential population losses were much more evident than a few years later when there was a return move- ment of displaced peoples to'the occupied areas and even a migra- tory gain of population in certain newly acquired areas such as Kaliningrad and the former Baltic States. Internal migration in the Soviet Union as in other modern nations, however, is basically influenced by industrialization and urbanization. Of less impor- tance as a factor in population redistribution except in certain subareas of the Soviet Union (such as the Transcaucasus) is the factor of markedly different birth and death rates. For the period 1939-55, the data in Table 2-18 indicate a gross transfer of population among Lorimer4s study areas of 11,059,000 persons, or 5.5 per cent of the average population in the period 1939-55, as compared with a gross transfer of population within the pre-1540 Soviet boundaries of 10,577,000 persons in the 1926-39 period (6.6 per cent of the average population size 1926.39). Virtually all of the population redisttibution has occurred as a result of an increase in Asiatic USSR and the Urals and a Oecrease in the remainder of Luropean USSR. It is interesting that these same trends, in general, characterize the redistribution of Russia's population in the preceding four decades. Two exceptions can be noted in the 1926-39 period when rapid industrialization produced- substantial in-migration into the Old Industrial Center (including Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved 71 SECRET for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDPRi_ninagpnnoArvw-v-v-v-In _ If ? MP 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part .Tw9 IL Population and_Mpower Moskva, Ivanovo, Gorkiy, Yaroslavl) and the Leningrad and Karelia- Murmansk regions. The same areas also show redistribution incre- ments in the 1939-55 period, although the repopulation of former Finnish provinces of Karelia with Soviet settlers overcompensates for a decline of population in and around Leningrad. Although the use of the redistribution increment or decre- ment method provides insight into the differential growth or decline of population, it should be remembered that the results are an ex- pression only of the net effects of various changes. Thus, to take an extreme example, the former Baltic republics show a redistribu- tion increment of only1400,000, whereas in reality some 1.2 million Soviet migrants entered these areas after 1940; but 800,000 of this gain was cancelled by wartime and postwar population losses in ex- cess of losses suffered by the Soviet population on the average. Migratory Trends within the Unocupied Area, 1939-55. What part of the all-union population redistribution increment or decrement for a given area 1939-55 is due to losses associated with the Second World War and what part is due to migration? if either component could be estimated, the other could be obtained as a residual. Unfortunately, neither factor can be estimated directly with any degree of reliability for the whole USSR. However, it is possible to establish the direction of migratory trends within the area of the Soviet Union which was not directly touched by the Ger- man occupation of World War II. The unoccupied area of the Soviet Union includes both areas of in-migration -(the'Urale and.Asiatic- Ruseia)-end'aeas of out-iligration (such as-theTeastei.n periphery of the Central Industrial Region and the Volga)* Between 1926 and 1939 the area equivalent to the unoccupied area had a modest migra- tory gain of some 500,000 persons, or less than one per cent of the areals population. By roughly estimating military casualties and birth deficit of the area, it appears that the unoccupied area had little or no net migration gain or loss 1940-55 at the expense of the remainder of the Soviet Union. Using only the hypothesis that war losses in the unoccupied area would tend to be spread evenly over the oblasts comprising this area, an assumption which is not inconsistent with an ()blast distribution of birth deficit computed from school enrollment daia, it is possible to compute population redistribution increments and decrements within the unoccupied 72 SECRET 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET A Part&Twp II Population and Ma,t_ipsf, areas, 1939-55w The procedure is as follows: the 1939 population of each oblast within the unoccupied area is multiplied by the ob- served rate of growth of the unoccupied area as a whole, yielding as expected 1955 population for each oblast. Deviatons between the observed population of an oblast and the expected population of the oblast are computed on a plus or minus basis. Table A-6, Appendix, presents the population redistribution increments or decrements among ()blasts within the unoccupied area, 1939-55; Table 2-19 summarizes these results by major' administra- tive divisions. The results are assumed to eive a reliable picture of the pattern of migration within the unoccupied area, although the computed gross redistribution of the population of plus and Table 2-19 SUMMARY OF REDISTRIBUTION OF USSR POPULATION WITHIN UNOCCUPIED AREA: 1939-558 (Net Increment or Decrement) Region Russian SFSR North and Northwest Southeast Volga Central Urals West Siberian East Siberin Far East Armyanskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Uzbekkaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR TOTAL in Absolute Fjgures 1,442,175 - 266,365 293,912 - 7448,096 - 3,919,165 1,40,428 479,358 490,828 1 359,749 154.,700 ,642 76,355 1,297,750 80,625 9615 78,251+ 62.124 + 5,64,659 - 5,64,659 aSee also Table A-6, Appendix. In Per Cent of Total - 25.53 - 4.72 - 5.21 -13.25 - 69.43 25.80 8.49 8.70 24.09 2.74 - 1.35 22.98 1.43 4.39 1.38 - ?1.10 +100.00 -100.00 minus 5.4 million persons for the unoccupied areas as a whole might be either high or low if strictly interpreted as an ex- pression of migration. The most significant out-migrant region 73 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower in the unoccupied area was the Central Region, constituting 72 per cent of the total population decrement of the unoccupied area, or 3.9 million. Out-migration was also substantial from the Volga Region and ?o 'a' lesser extent in the Southeast and the North and Northwest Regions. Almost all of the migratory gain within the unoccupied area was registered by the Urals Region, Kazakhstan, and the Far East. Unlike other parts of the unoccupied area, the Armyanskaya ,SSR attracted in-migrants from outside the Soviet Union in the return-home drive sponsored by the Soviet Government in 1946-48. Within the Soviet Union, however, little internal migra- tion from and to the Transcaucasus Region took place in the period 1939-55, a tendency characteristic of much of the modern history of this region. All Union M. rator Trends 1 8 Migration to the new lands areas is expected to continue in 1955-58, although the rate of migration will he greatly reduced. Two migratory trends of far greater significance are associated with 1) the Sixth Five- Year Plan of industrialization in the east; and 2) migration to and from acquired areas. Industrialization in the East. Soviet reports of April 1956 indicate that 3 million migrants will be required to supply the manpower requirements of a vast program of industrialization in the east (apparently in the Urals, Siberia, Kazakhstan, and the Soviet Far East) during the period of the Sixth Five-Year Plan. Over a five-year period, this would mean an average of 600,000 per year. An authoritative Soviet source, however, has given a some- what smaller figure: Khrushchev in May 1956 called for 500,000 migrants per year. Internal migration within the RSFSR yields an estimated "normal" migration to the entire area of the Urals, Siberia, Kazakhstan, the Soviet Far East, and Central Asia of 440,000 migrants per year, of which 350,000 per year would migrate into the areas directly affected by the new industrialization program. Thus, it seems likely that the total volume of migration to Asia will be intensified only modestly, whereas the new industrialization pro- gm will to some extent effectuate a redistribution of migrants in terms of where they settle. It is too early to foresee the degree to which the proposed industrial program will have advanced by 1958. However, high rates 71+ SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 'A SECRET Part Two 11. Population and Manpower, of "normal" in-migration were observed for many of the ?blasts reportedly involved in the new industrialization program, and it was only in the ?blasts which did not have high rates of "normal" in-migration that in the present estimates were considered in need of adjustment to allow for the new program. An arbitrary 100,000 migrants were added to the latter areas and distributed among different oblasts in proportion to the "normal" migration trends. Oblasts primarily involved in the new program appear to be Novosibirskaya, Omskaya, Akmolinskaya, Karagandinskaya, Kokche- tavskaya, Kurganskaya, Kustanayskaya, Pavlodarskaya, and Severo- Kazakhstanskaya, and the Bashkirskaya iPSIR., Administrative div- isions secondarily involved in the new program include Altayskiy Kray and Kemerovskaya and Aktuybinskaya Oblasts. Migration to and from Acquired Aneas. The repopula- tion of the former Japanese territories included now in the Sakhalinskaya Oblast in the Soviet Far East appears to have been basically completed. The Japanese nationals have been repa- triated and their places taken by Soviet in-migrants. This in - migration is still proceeding, although at a reduced rate, and therefore the estimated in-migration in 1955-58 on the basis of 1940-55 data was adjusted downward. The repopulation of the former German territory included now in Kaliningradskaya Oblast on the western periphery of the RSFSR is still continuing at a rapid pace. The former German population has been completely resettled, with ? virtually all having been returned to Germany. A German source in April 1956 reported that the Soviet government had decided to send another 600,000 Soviet settlers to Kaliningrad, at the rate of 120,000 a year. The' German report may exaggerate' the scope" of move- ment; however, the estimaterfor V.. .1 Oblast shown Lit ". Table-A-5 allows for a net, in-migration of about 100,000 persons in the period' 4955-58. An agreement has .been'conclude&between the Soviet-and . Polish governments supplementing the Soviet-Polish agreements of. 1544=45. Under' the terms of the 19Y1 16'agreements, about-half a million Ukrainians, Belorussians, and Lithuanians were transferred from Poland to-the USSR, and some 1.8 million Poles and Jews left the Soviet'Union for Poland. -These agrements envisaged .the.liqui- dation in the postwar period of the Polish and Jewish minorities 4 75' SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part ,Two Population and. residing in the USSR? who had been Polish citizens until the Sept- ember 1939 annexations of former Polish territory by the Soviet Union. However, the repatriation program was interrupted by Pol- itical exigencies and only recently has an agreement been reached to continue the repatriation of Poles and Jews from the USSR to , Poland. 1? has been reported that 40,000 persons left the Soviet Union under terms of the new agreement in 1956 and that it is ex- pected that 120,000 will be repatriated in 1957 and an unknown number in 1958 (the 1958 estimates of population in the present study do not allow for this out-migration). The total volume of out-migrafion from the USSR under terms of the new agreement may possibly-total-half a million. B. Urban-Rural Population 1. Total Urban Populatioa The official Soviet estimates of the urban population, re- ported in Narodnoye-khozyaystvo. SSSR, indicate that between 1951 and 1955 urban population increased 13.2-million (see-Table 21.20). The implied urban growth closely 'corresponds with' Khrushchevis-state- ment in February 1955 that the urban population increased by more than 17 million during the 1950-54 period, including a movement of Table 2-20 GROWTH OF URBAN POPULATION IN THE USSR: 1926-58a Total Urban Per Cent Population of Total Year Op mi1liqn0 Population b 1926 (Dec.) 2603L 17.9 1939 56.1 32.9 1940 60.6c :30.6 1951 71.4C 39.0 1955 8)+.6c 43.2 1956 86.5c 43)+ 1956 (April) . 87.0! 43.5 1957 88.5.; 43.6 1958 90.5' 43.9 ,a of .1. January, except as otherwise indicated. b Census figure.. 9 Official Soviet estimate. .ARD estimate. 76 . SFCRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part TWO II. Population and Manpower. 9 million persons from rural to urban areas., The figures also indicate a significant decrease in the rate of urban growth start- ing with 1955: the average annual rate of urban growth was 4.6 per cent between 1951 and 1955 but dropped to 2.3 per cent after 1955. There are several plausible explanations for this reduced rate. In the past, Sovieturban growth has drawn heavily. on.the rural population, and the present supply of rural manpower is no longer as abundant. -As.a result of war losses ?the rural segment of the population cannot spare the manpower-to relieve the short- age caused .by the continuing growth of urban complexes. The new emphasis on agricultural production, as evidenced in the develop- ment of the virgin lands, contributes to the tight labor force situation in the rural .regions-of -the Soviet Union Assuming an annual natural growth of urban population of 1 7 per cent-, a yearly increase of only 2 million-Persons allows for a'minimal flow of migrants from rural to urban areas. Since a certain urban' increment is added as a result of reclassification of populated points as urban, the .annual rural-to-urban migration is estimated' atslightly less than 500,000 persons. 2. Urban Population Ranges In the 1926-55 period the urban population of the Soviet Union increased by more than 200 per cent, from 26.3 million to 86.6 million, while the number of urban settlements more than doubled (see Table 2-21). Although most of this growth occurred betWeen 1926. and 1939; during the period of rapid industrial growth, a high rate of urban growth continued in the postwar period. In the-1939-56 period, the gyeatest percentual increase in.the number of cities occurred in-the over-5?0,000 class. The greatest per- centual growth of 'population occurred.in the Under-10,000class, chiefly-as the result of reclassification of rural settlements. The future.will'probably see a decrease in'the rate of.growth of the largest cities and an attempt to decentralize. some.of the industrial complexes. Even prior to World War certain restrictions were issued on continued growth of the.large Soviet. cities. Comparing the prewar and the present populations of these cities, it becomes obvious that the restrictions have not been effective 'Nevertheless, more recent comments in the Soviet press indicate that perhaps some 77 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two Balla Under 10,000 10-20,000 20-50,000 50-100,000 100-500,000 Over 500,000 TOTAL SECRET jJ Population and Manpower Table 2-21 CHANGES IN USSR URBAN POPULATION RANGES: 1926, 1939, 1956 Republic Number of Urban Settlements 1.26, 19,39 1956 1,446 1,443 2,577 253 466 706 135 288 432 60 944 139 28 71 113 .11.. 22 1,925 2,373 3,989 Population in millionsl... 192 1939 1914515 5.2 7.1 1199 3.5 6.5 9.8 4.0o 807 1302 4.01 6.8 9.114. 5014 14.2 21.5 t2.8 20.8 26.3 5601 86.6 Table 2-22 ESTIMATED URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF USSR POPULATION, BY REPUBLIC: 1958 Russian SFSR Northwestern Region Central Industrial Region Volga Region Southeastern Region Urals Region . West Siberian Region East Siberian Region ? Fa..r Eastern Region Ukrainskaya SSR Belorusskaya SSR .Uzbekskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Litovskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR TOTAL Population (in thousands) Rural Total Urban 116,761 (9,532) (45,470) (10,135) (11,507) (16,220) (.12.1+81) (6;881) (4,535) ,733 ? 87142 8,907 4,1055 3,543 2,704 ? 2,749 2,039 1,996 1,860 1,688 ,403 3132 206,293 56,826 (6,4)o), (20,206) (4,840) (+,391) (9,103) (5,550) (31219) (3,077) 16,573 2,144 2,363 3,618 1,575 1,687 902 546 1,050 618 591 756 636 .615 90,500 78 SECRET 591935 (3,092) (25,26)+) (5,295) (7,116) (71117) (6,931) (3,662) (1,458) 25,160 ? 5,998 5,211 5,289 2,480 1,856 1,802 2,203 989 1,378 1,269 ryl 767 115,793 Per Cent Urban of Total 48.7 67.6, 4404 47.8 38.2 56.0 44.5 46.8 67.9 39.1 6.3 31.2 40.6 38.8 47.6 33.4 1909 5u5 31.0 31.8 4408 45?3 43,9 Ilmommimilimill? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower further measures will be taken in this direction. 3. BgIblic Distribution and Rate of Growth The proportion and the rate of growth of the urban popula- tion eachvariisgreatly among the republics and ?blasts of the Soviet Union (see Tables 2-22 and A-6, Appendix). As is true of the total population a general eastward shift of the urban population has been in process for several decades. The growth of cities in Siberia, the Urals, and Central Asia received an impetus during the war years, when millions of persons were evacuated with industriaJ installwo tions to the east. Although many of the evacuees returned to the west after the war, -a' large number settled in the new areas. More important, as a result of the war the Soviet Union realized the necessity of developing the less accessible hinterlands, of the country. Continued urban growth in these regions is insured by the current plans to accelerate industrialization in Siberia, a process which will involve a redistribution of millions of persons. n Only about 20 per cent of the urban population were located in Asiatic Russia (including the Urals) in 1926. This proportion had increased to about 25 per cent in 1939 and to slightly more than 30 per cent in 1958, despite the annexation of urban popula- tion in the Baltics, the Ukraine, Belorussia, and Moldavia. Al- though the bulk of the urban population is located in the Central A Industrial Region of the RSFSR, the areas with the highest pro- portions of urban population are usually in regions where conditions preclude the possibility of important agricultural development, as in the case of the Northwestern and Far Eastenn Regions of the RSFSR. Ukrainskaya,SSR, on the other hand, with important industrial centers and a large urban population,is 63 per cent rural, because of the high density of the agricultural population. , Urban population in Asiatic Russia doubled in the 1939-58 period, while European Russia showed a rate-of growth about one- third as high. Since the RSFSR spreads across both continents, the estimated growth of 56.2 per cent (see Table 2-23) is deceiving, since it includes both the regions of rapid urban growth and the war-devastated areas in the west. For example, the urban popula- ion of the Far East increased-more -than 170 per cent between 1939 and 1958, while in the Volga Region during the same period, it grew by less than 20 per cent. In the Kazakhskaya SSR and the 79 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET 1.14,22Rmigi2a4millawm: Thble 2-23 ESTIMATED CHANGE OF USSR URBAN POPULATION BY REPUBLIC: 1939/406-1958 Republic Russian SFSR Ukrainskaya SSR Belorusskaya SSR Uzbekskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Litovskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR Urban Population in thousands 12.322 36,377 13,175 2,159 1,445 1,706 1,067 1,161 675 450 ? 708 271 252 366 416 372 TOTAL 60,600 122. 56,826 16,573 2,114 2,363 3,618 1,575 1,687 902 546 1,050 618 591 756 636 615 Per Cent Change + 56.2 + 25.8 007 +63.5 + 112.1 +14706 +145?3 + 33.6 ?+ 21.3 +1+8.3 + 128.0 + 13405 + 106.6 + 52.9 + 6503 90,500 + 49.0 republics of Central Asia, urban population almost doubled during these years. Republics with the lowest rates of urban growth are the Ukraine and Belorussia, where many of the cities were almost destroyed during World War II and barely regained their prewar populations by 1958. Moldavia experienced a slight population loss. With few exceptions, the distribution of urban growth fol- lowed the regional pattern established between 1926-39, during the period of greatest urbanization, and there is no reason to believe that any major changes in this growth will occur in the near future. Siberia and Central Asia will continue to receive a disproportional number of urban in-migrants, concurrent with the planned develop- ment in that area, while the urban growth in the western regions will be substantially more moderate. 4. Population of Cities Table A-7, Appendix, presents the 1958 estimated populations for urban areas of oblast subordination or above and the 1939/40 populations of those-cities which currently have populations of more than 50,000. Cities with populations of 100,000 and above wee included in the list published in Narodnoye khozyaystwo ,SSSR. The populations of all cities in the RSFSR with more than 50,000 in- habitants and/or those which are administrative centers were listed 80 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043Rnn94nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 1.4,2ARILltiara_miAmstm in Narodnoye khozyaystvo RSFS_R, while those of Ukrainian urban centers of republic or oblast subordination were listed in Narodne gsmosin..?....s.tairarsvoulisl,y.oRSR. These data were projected to 1958 usitig the regional differential rate of urban growth. Population estimates for the remainder of the cities are based on numerous reports and indexes, scattered population data from both Russian and German sources, data on election districts, and the 1926 and 1939 census. It should be recognized that the validity of each estimate is directly proportional to the size of the city. Thus, estimates for cities of 100,000 and above (including about half the Urban population) are the most accurate. Estimates for cities which were Over 50,000 in 1939 and were reported in the census of that year are also considered relatively reliable. For urban areas under 50,0001 the estimates are more tentative. They are usually more accurate for cities outsidA thP RSFSR and the Ukraine, where an accurate indication of the size of a town may be'obtained from small election districts (based on populations of 5,000-20,000), and less accurate for cities within these two republics, where election districts are based on populations of 150,000 and 1001000, respectively, and where other indexes and rates of projection had to be used. 5. Rural Population The rural population of the Soviet Union is estimated at 116 million as of 1 January 1958. This total is derived on the basis of projections of the total and urban populations as reported for 1956 in AtudnomishozygystvojpR. Since the system of registra- tions in the urban areas is more complete and the urban statistics are more reliable, the problem of inaccurate data is essentially concentrated in the rural regions of the Soviet Union (see Section IL A. 2 for a discussion of underenumeration). For example, prior to the 1939 census, Soviet sources freely admitted that for all practical purposes the rural population of the country was an un- known quantity. Although definite improvements have been made in the system of registration in rural areas, particularly in 1948-49, there is still no evidence of complete enumeration, and undoubtedly current data reflect a serious underenumeration. The rural population has decreased as a result of the high 81 SECR,E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two -11-1---EggOationandlower volume of rural-to-urban migration, which during the periods of greatest urban grOwth more than wiped oUt the natural increase of the rural population, In terms of outright War tosses, the rural segment of the population sustained a much higher proportion of the casualties than did. the urban population. Not only did the military services recruit more heavily from the rural population, but a higher proportion of the. urban population was evacuated to the east and the return movement to the cities was higher. Postwar rural-to- urban migration 'usually compensated for losses sustained by the urban population. The heaviest losses sustained by the rural population were. in the occupied areas of-the Soviet Union. 'Thus, the old territories of the RSFSR,.Ukraine, and Belorussia and the. old Baltic republics show the greatest-proportional decrease (see Table 240. A de- crease is also revealed in Turkmenistan, Georgia, and Azerbaydzhan. Table 24'4 ESTIMATED CHANGES IN USSR RURAL POPULATLON, BY REPUBLIC: 1939/40-1958 Republic Russian SFSR Ukrainskaya SSR Belorusskaya SSR Uzbekskaya SSR Kazakhakaya SSR GruzinSkaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Litovskaya $SR Moldavskaya SSR La.Myskaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR Number Change: .1919/40-$3 (in thousands) Absolute 1939/40 1258 (in thousands), Per Deli 72,065 28,656 7,090 41888 4-1388 2,503 2, 2,250 2,050 1.196 11087 1,232 916 836 680 TOTAL 131,982 59,935 25,160 5,998 5,211 5,289 2;480 1,856 1,802 2,203 989 1,378 1,269 932 767 115,793 - 12,130 - 3,496 - 1,092 323 901 23 189 88 ? 153 207 191 37 16 - 69 - 16,189 - 16.8 - 12.2 - 15.4 6.6 20,5 - - 9.2 - 19.9 7.5 - 17.3 16.1 3.0 1.8 - 8.3 - 22.9 - 12.3 The remaining republics, which except for Moldavia were not occupied by the enemy, show a moderate growth 'of about 9 per cent in the 1939-58 period, or about 0.5 per cent per annum. This slow-rate. of growth was due to rural-to-urban migration, military losses and 82 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two a birth deficit. These factors, however, were somewhat compensated for by an eastward movement of the rural population. Although. rela tively small in -volume, this movement was accentuated by the devel- opment of virgin and fallow lands in Kazakhstan and western Siberia. During the height of the program (1954-56), a large number of rural migrants from European RSFSR, the Ukraine, and Belorussia, as well as from the-other republics of the, USSR, came to settle on-the previously uncultivated lands. On a much smaller scale, rural settlement has also been taking place in the Far East and eastern Siberia. SECRET The Soviet Union has perhaps reached the point where it can-no longer afford. to continue a policy which builds up-the urban population at the expense of the rural population. Although a re- duced rate of rural-to-urban.migration will continue, it is ex- pected that the rural population will grow for the next few years at an annual- rate of about one percent Only a significant in-' crease in agricultural productivity, necessary to feed a constantly growing urban population, would release.additional rural manpower for the growing industrial capacity of the Soviet Union. 6. Population Density As in all-countries with large land areas, the density pattern of the Soviet population is extremely irregular. Table 2-25.presents.the population density -outside the-major urban areas for the 15 union republics and for the major economic regions-of the. RSFSR. The estimated populations in this table -exclude all urban areas of oblast -subordination and.abovel so-that the den- sities primarily represent the distribution of the rural popula- tion (approximately 80 per cent rural. and 20 per cent urban). (See ,alSo Table A-79 Appendix, and-Map Up. In general, the most densellyi populated' regions'are in areas of intensive agricultural. developuint, such. as Ukrainskaya BelorusskayaSSIT,.and Moldavskaya.SSR. The population den- sity is also relatively high- in the republics of the Caucasus. , The Central Industrial Region, in. which total 'density is among the- highest in. the USSR., drops considerably as a result' of' the exclusion of major urban 'centers, particularly.of.Moskva. The lowest 'densities are found in the vast areas of Siberia, Central Asia and the European northwest. Since a large , 83 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part ?Two SECRET II. Population and ManmeAL Table 2-25 POPULATION OUTSIDE MAJOR URBAN AREAS OF THE USSR, BY MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION: 1958 Administrative Russian SFSR ? Northwestern Region Central Industrial Region Volga Region Southeastern Region Urals Region _ ? West Siberian Region East Siberian Region Far Eastern Region Ukrainskaya SSR Belorusskaya SSR Uzbekskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR GruzinSkaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Litovskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR latviyikayi:SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR TOTAL Estimated a Population (in thoulonds) 74,607 0+1118) (301948) (6,271) (8,273) (9,426) (8,137) (51016) (2)486) 310042 6,680 5;509 6,439 2,951+ 2,387 2,023 2,289 10144 1,54+ 1,440 1,075 944 671 1141,866 a ARD estimates. Landb Population , Area Density (Pq. Miles) per Sq. Mile 6,336,728 12 (603,975) (7) 0+18,463) (714) (164,551) (38) (152,740) (54) (293,)+313) (32) (935,511) (9) (2-1'74118010 (2) (1,026,246) (2) 232,604. 133 80;131+ 83 159,101 35 1,060,465 6 29,490 100 33,080 72 25,167 80 13,047 175 241897 48 76,698 20 54,812 26 11,503 93 187,133 5 17,1408 _39 8,3)+2,267 17 b Land areas for Administrative divisions in the East Siberian and Far Eastern Regions are taken from ARD Oblast Political and Population Surveys. Areas affected by changes in administra7- tive divisions in Kazakhskaya SSR and Uzbekskaya SSR, involving oblast and republic boundaries, were measured, and the new oblast and republic areas were calculated. The remaining figures are from The AIM 1956 Annual Estimates. Calculated areas have not been rounded, SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 11. Population and Manpower proportion of the population in these areas is urban, the exclusion of major urban settlements reduces sharply the population density. As a result of the general redistribution of the popul&- 'lion of the USSR and the tendency to migrate to the east, the popu- lation density east of the Urals will increase. However, the con- sequences will be significant only for local areas and will have little effect on the over-all figures of the large economic regions. C. Age-Sex Structure 1. 1958 Age-Sex Structure The estimated 1958 age composition of the USSR population is a projection of the mid-values of the 1956 age structure esti- mate, based on scattered Soviet data (discussed in Section 3, fol- lowing). The sex structure is an adaptation of the ratios pre- sented in &Estimate of the Develo ments in USSR Po ulation Struc- ture from January 17, 1939, to January 1, 1952 (ARD Technical Paper, 1-3). The excess of females in the Soviet population (see Table 2-26) reflects the heavy male losses during World War. 11 and many of the other disasters of the past half century which periodically have produced excess mortality among the males* The estimated sex ratio in 1958 is 113 females per 100 males; in 1950 it was 118 per 100. Although an excess of females in the Soviet Union will persist for several decades, the tendency to approach an equality between the sexes will continue. Table 2-26 AGE-SEX STRUCTURE OF THE USSR: 1958 Per Cent Population (in millions) of Total Age Group , Male 'Female Total Population 0-14 30.5 30.2 60.7 29.4 15-59 59.7 70.1 129.8 62.9 60 plus ._6.1.2_ 9.2 15.8 7.7 TOTAL 96.7 109.6 206.3 100.0 The modification in the age-structure-of-the 1956-Soviet population, which saw an increase-in-the-proportion of the' adult population (discussed in detail'in.Section 11,4.0..2), is also obvious in 1958. It is interesting to note that the higher level . 85 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 11.9.--alulatiPandManawer of mortality in the Soviet Union and the effects of past calamities are reflected in the low proportion of the population over 60 years of age. This is particularly striking when faced with the exceed- ingly low crude death rate of the Soviet Union and is more repre- sentative of a country with high death rates. Nevertheless, the 60-plus cohort for the first time reflects a relative growth and is well above the 13 million reported in 1954. 2. Problem of Enumeration An estimate of the age compopition of Soviet population was constructed by synthesizing scattered Soviet data pertaining to various components of the total population in 1956. 'As 'a first step, statistics on births, school enrollment, and eligible voters were utilized to form a set of preliminary estimates of population ages 0-6, 7-17, and 18 and over, respectively. It was necessary, of course, to modify the basic data in part. Mortality occurring between birth and age 6 was subtracted from the computed number of births; similarly, as the relationship between school enrollment and population of school age is not perfect, allowance was made for nonattendance at school and for the continuation in primary school of children above the "normal" four ages (7-110) of primary school. The technical aspects of these modifications may be summa- rized as follows: 1 Infant mortality was computed on the basis of state- ments in the Soviet press concerning the decline of infant mortality in various postwar years as compared with the pre- war period. The resulting level of infant mortality was found to be consistent with infant mortality in the model United Nations life table for a population with an average life expectancy at birth of 64 years, the level of life ex- pectancy recently reported as obtaining for the Soviet Union. Of far less significance statistically, child mortality rates were derived by averaging the child mortality rates of seven countries having similar levels of infant mortality as that estimated for the Soviet Union. 2. The population ages 7-17 was estimated by utiliz- ing reported information on enrollment in grades 1-4, per- centages of age classes attending school, and drop-out and failure rates. Thus, enrollment in grades 1-4 in 1948-49, 1951-52, and 1955-56 was utilized to establish the number 7,. 8, 9, and 10 years olefin these three school years. By 86 SECRET 1116mmEnDeclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Pot Two SECR T II. Po o r aging theindividuals to 1955-56,, a consistent series was obtained as follows: Ages as of Year Enroltpd in Grades ,1-4 8-10 (1948-ai9) 7-10 (1951-52) 7-10 (1955-56) Ages as of 1955-16 15-17 1144 7-10 3. The percentage which eligible voters constituted of the reported total Soviet population in 199+ and 1955 was relatively constant (62.7 and 6209, respectively), and therefore the 1955 percentage was applied to the 1956 re- ported population to derive an estimate of eligible voters In that year. The groups 0-61 7-17, and 18 and over total 196,389,0001 or 2,978,000 less than the 1956 reported total population of 199,347,000. Under the tentative assumption that this residual can be interpreted as an allowance by Soviet authorities for the nonvoting adult population, the conclusion is implied that the scattered materials pertaining to the age composition of Soviet population basically confirm the official population reported by Soviet authorities. It should be kept in mind, however, that the preceding computations make no allowance for adjustments to the 0-6 and 7-17 estimates and that the allowance of about 3 million nonvoting adults would seem to understate significantly the true size of this group. The possible scope of such adjustments is discussed below. Underregistration of births. Russia's experience in birth registration is extensive, as church registers date back to the early eighteenth century. Following the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, responsibility for maintenance of vital statistics was transferred from eccles4astical to civil authorities. By 1939 reg- istration was considered by Soviet authorities to be satisfactory except in the more backward areas. In Soviet sources, the effec- tiveness of birth registration is usually measured against the results of a census, disregarding the well-known fact that censuses themselves nearly always involve underenumeration of infants and children. The scope of the problem is suggested by the estimate made by rrank-Lorimer, the demographer, that the 1939 census under- enumerated the children under two years of age by 6.3 percent. Effectiveness of registration has undoubtedly improved since 1939, 87 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043Rnn94nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECR ,E T Part Two .114,-ESSIALUSELAIUMIMEE but it appears that births still may be under registered by 5 to 10 per cent. In comparison, underregistrat ion of births in the U.S., according to official data of the U.S.. Bureau of the Census, amounted to 8 per cent in 1940 and to 1.5 per cent in 1954, (Ansley Coale has"estimated that the 1950 U.S. census underenumerated the popula- tion under age five by 3 per cent-4 per cent of all white children and 10 per cent of nonwhite children ) , School enrollment in relation to ?o ulation o school ..e School participation, drop-out, and failure rates for the prewar period were utilize0. to test'the.method of deriving postwar data on population of-school age from statistics on school enroll- ment in primary grades. The population as-predicted from school enrollment data was 4.5 per cent lower than the population reported in the official 1939 census. School participation rates tend to expand gradually to optimal levels, whereas failure and drop-out rate tend to decrease gradually to minimal levels, in such a way that there is a general tendency for primary school enrollment to approach a state of perfect correlation with the actual population of school age. Thus, it is doubtful if school enrollment data in the postwar period underrepresents the actual population of school age by as much as was found in the prewar comparison. Alternatiie estimates of underrepresentation of 2-3 per cent are given in Table 2-27 Age Group 0.6 7-17 18 and over Eligible Voters Others neclassified in Table 2-27 AGE COMPOSITION OF THE SOVIET POPULATION: 1 January 1956 ? Unadjusted Estimate cin,tho*nde 31,912 39,097 125,312 Assumed . Percentage of Underrepresentation 5-10 2-3 Total Reported Total Discrepancy between reported and adjusted totals 88 SECRET Adjusted Estimate (in thpu?ands) LOW , UPPer -33,600 35,500 39,900 40,300 1 29 ,200 133,300 202)700 209,100 199,31+7 1V 4,3107 +3,353 +9,753 Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Earia?"wc-' IL..autulaiimmdlaamtrE included as It has been offi- cially reported that in 1931+ disfranchised adults consti- tuted 2.5 per cent of the population of voting age (age 18 and over). In the absence of reliable population data for 1934 (the previous all-union census was in 1926), it appears likely that the reported percentage refers to those explicitly deprived of .voting eligibility rather than constituting the difference between the lists ofeligible voters and .the population age 18 and over. Thus, the total number of adults in 193+ probably exceeded somewhat the reported percentage who were explicitly deprived of voting eligi- bility. Comparison of.reported voters for 1938-39 with the adult population counted in the 1939 census indicates. that eligible voter statistics underrepresented the recensed population age 18 and over in 1938-39 by 6.2-6.3 per cent. It is known that the number of perr. sons disfranchised for political reasons increased significantly after 1934 as "a result of the purges of the late 1930s. If the estimate of forced laborers from the 1541 plan, made by the Soviet specialist Jasny, is accepted as an estimate for this group as of 1939, it would appear that forced laborers would account for some- what more than half, or 3.5 million, of the computed 6.2-6.3 per cent discrepancy and that the remaining 2.7 million would consist of insane and senile persons, common criminals, and unregistered eligible voters. During the war and immediate postwar years, the number of forced laborers increased radically as a result of various Soviet deportations. In the post-Stalin period many forced laborers have been released, and it must not be forgotten that the high forced labor camp population has been continuously decimated by excess mortality caused by severe living conditions, inadequate food and clothing, and overwork. However, despite Soviet propaganda to the contrary, forced labor camps still exist, and the proportion of nonvoting adults as a whole undoubtedly falls within the range of 3-6 per cent implied for 1934-39. Table 2-27 suggests that the 1956 reported total population may understate the size of the USSR's population by 3-10 million. However, the relationships among the three broad age groups would not be significantly altered by the indicated ranges of underenumer- ation, as shown in Table 2-28, where the age structure of Soviet population in'14OJ,.compared with 1956. 89 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 . Tv? SECRET 1,1?0?..190.104.120.0).fsmorLer. Table 2-28 CHANGES IN AGE COMPOSITION OF THE SOVIET POPULATION: 1940-56 (in per cent of total population) 121 17.3j 16.01-17,35 23.90 19.12-1904, 57 63,0?-61+.46 100.00 100.00 APPr9uP 0-6 7-17 18 plus TOTAL a ARD Technical Paper. 111111?11. , Changes. _ill age catiposAtion., 19140'and 1956g, The most funda? mental modification in the age structure of the Soviet popu- lati9n, 1940.s56 (see -Table 2-T28) was the changed relationship be4 tween the adult and nonadult -population, persons ages -18 and over constituting 58 77 per cent of the- total population in -1940 and 634+ per cent in 1956. The decreased proportion of the'nonadult population is chiefly the product of the war and immediate postwar birth deficit and excess mortality of the 7-17 age group during World War The 0-6 age group in 1956 still constituted a rela- tively high proportion of the total population, despite a drop by one-third in the birth rate, as a consequence of the reduction by over two-thirds of infant mortality between 194.4-1956. D. Trenciatet ? Three significant trends are apparent in Soviet vital rates "-- table 1) the crLide death- r'ate Fes per ',Quo cent; 2) the crude birth-rate has declined by one-third; and 3) the natural increase' rate "hs remained relatively- stab le The most singular. aspect of the-new Tates is the radical dee I ine- the ' crude 'death rate. 1 t has bon conjeCtured th4t this reductiorrmight be -artificial- to a significant degree ciwing-to in- complete- registration of deaths, -particularly deaths of. persons in forced labor camps. This conjecture does. not seem -explana- tion-of the decline in comparison.with the prewar rate, however, since prewar 'data'may be-assumed to have been equally defective. The'enormous decline appears rather to be the- product of 1) Imo provements in living conditions through medical advances; 2). the 90 SECR ,E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release a 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part .2.rw SECRET Table 249 BIRTH AND DEATH RATES AND NEW GRRINTH OF USSR POPU(ATION: 1913-56 Blahs Deaths Net Population ilder 1,000 per 1,000 Increase per 1,000 Year Population P9pulati9n Population_ 1913 47.0 30.2 i6.8 1926 44.0 20.3 23.7 1938 38.3 17.8 20.5 1940 31.7 18.2 13.4 1950 26.5 9.6 16.9 1951 26.8 9.6 17.2 1952 26)4 9.3 17.1 1953 X.9 9.0 15.9 1954. 26.5 8,9 17.5 1955 25.6 8.2 17.2 rit-g, i I 7,"/ .--../ P`, X n 707 17.3 aSource: NaroOnoye kho;yaystvo SSSR (1957). selective effects of the war, which killed off the sick and aged who otherwise would have died later; and 3) the changed age-sex structure of the population which places a larger proportion of the total population in the ages of lowest mortality rates. TL- last e importance of thes point, in particular,is emphasiz- ed by new Soviet data indicating that average life expectancy reached 61+ years in 1955, a rate corresponding to a life table death rate (i.e., actual Soviet mortality rates for each age-sex group in the population computed in relation to a hypothetically stationary popu- lation) of 15.6 per 1,000. Since the life table death rate is not computed in relation to the? actual age-sex composition of the pOpulatiOht it adequateljr expresses the actual level of mortality rates and makes possible the following comparison. Although the crude death rate in the Soviet Union was lower than the crude death rate in the U.S. in 1955, the actual level of mortality rates was 10 per cent higher.in the Soviet Unibn in the same year. Never- theless, the reduction of 'mortality rates in the Soviet Union has been-enormous, the current life table death rate being 28 per cent lower in 1955 than the life table death rate of 1939. Although the change in the crude birth rate has been less spectacular than that of the death rate, the degree of.change is actually quite large--a reduction in the number of births on 91 SECR ,E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 iiim limmimmomm Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower average, of about 2 million per year. This phenomenon may be viewed as the anticipated consequence of increased industrialization and urbanization in the USSR, and since it is contrary to the Soviet government's pronatalist policies, an attempt was made to hide the greatly lowered birth rate as recently as the last World Popu- lation Conference held in 1951+. Since that time, however, Khrushchev has castigated bachelors and argued for the achievement of a three- child family. The birth rate in the next five years will probably not decline significantly, as persons in the reproductive ages of 20-34 will be drawn essentially from age classes born in high birth- rate years. After 1962, however, a precipitous decline in the birth rate can be expected, for the number of potential parents will have been reduced by nearly 10 million as a consequence of the war and immediate postwar birth deficit. Under the assumption of a slowly rising crude death rate and aprecipitous decline in the birth rate, the natural increase rate is expected to drop sharply in the future. E. Ethnic Composition 1. Ethnic Groups An outstanding characteristic of the ethnic composition of the Soviet Union is its great complexity. Aside from the Great Russians, who constitute only a bare majority of the population (54.58 percent), probably 168 other ethnic groups of the most diverse linguistic and cultural background are represented. Only twelve of the groups are large enough to constitute more than one per cent of the population (see Table 2-30). Of the remainder moriu'amount' to only 'a 'few thousand, some having been classified separately purely on the basis of dialect or tribal distinctiveness. The diversity of the Soviet Union's ethnic composition be- comes less formidable when it is realized that an estimated 76 per cent of the population belong to the single linguistic-cultural grouping of the Eastern Slays. In addition to the Great Russians, this cactegory includes the Ukrainians and the Belorussians, the second and third largest nationalities of the Soviet Union. Al- though all three groups speak Eastern Slavic languages and share a common Eastern Orthodox cultural heritage, important differences exist among them. Great Russian culture tends to dominate the other two groups, particularly the Belorussian, and there has been con- siderable assimilation of the two smaller groups by the Russians. 92 SECRET _Declassified in in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043Rnn94nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part ,TwoII. Popu lat ion and Manpower SE CRJE , Table 2-30 ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF THE USSR: 1958a Ethnic Group Per Cent of Total Population Great Russian 514-.58 Ukrainian 18.26 Belorussian 3.16 Uzbek 2.59 Tatar 2.25 Kazakh 1.63 Jewish 1 .24 Georgian AzerbaydzhaniAn Armenian Polish Moldavian Lithuanian Mordvian Chuvash Tadzh;k German Latvian Peoples of Dagestan Kirgiz Bashkir Turkmen Estonian Others TOTAL 1.20 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.01 0.96 0.77 0.77 0.67 0.67 0.62 0.43 0.43 0.43 0)+3 0.43 4 ,02 100.00 aProjection of data presented in ARD Technical Paper 1-3. The Turkic-language groups constitute an important bloc in the Soviet Union's population. The more important nationalities are the Uzbeks, the Kazakhs, the Turkmen, and the Kirghiz of Turkestan; the Azerbaydzhani of the Transcaucasus area; and the Tatars and Bashkirs who reside in the region between the Volga River and the Ural Mountains. These groups share a common Islamic cultural her- itage. The Tadzhiks of southern Turkestan are closely related to the-Turkic nationalities of-Turkestan but differ from them in their Iranian -speech. The "influence' of Turkic languages has been impor- tant within this group and a large number now speak Uzbek. 93 SECRET neclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I I. Population and Manpor The more important Finnic groups of the USSR are the Mord- vinians in the Volga region and the Estonians in the Baltic litto- ral. Other smaller groups speaking Finnic languages inhabit the northern portion of European Russia and'western Siberia and the Volga valley. Despite similarities among their languages, wide cultural differences exist. The nationalities constituting the Baltic linguistic group are the Lithuanians and the Latvians, who with the Finnic Estonians make up the population of the Baltic littoral. Primarily Protestant or Catholic in religion and culturally oriented toward the west, these groups have little in common with their Russian neighbors. Prior to the Soviet occupation in 1940 they enjoyed national inde- pendence. The most numerous of the ethnic groups of the Transcaucasus area, aside from the Azerbaydzhani, are the Georgians and Armenians. These two peoples have independent civilizations which date back to ancient times but are related in that their cultures are basically Christian. The MnIdAviAns, the basic' population'of the Moldmvsknyn ,SSR, are closely connected lingustically, culturally, and religiously with the Rumanians. Until 1940 they formed a part of the Rumanian Kingdom. The peoples of Dagestan are a melange of small ethnic groups who inhabit the eastern end of the Caucasus Mountains. Linguisti- the most ? they pertain IL_ part, LEM), perLam LU the ISIdMIC cultural sphere. Although there has been a tendency toward nationality dis- persion and intermixture in the USSR, most of the ethnic groups are still largely concentrated in compact areas of settlement. There are, however, exceptions to this rule, the most notable of which are the Jews, the Poles and the Germans. The Jews and Poles are located primarily in the Ukrainskaya, Belorusskaya, and Litovskaya SSRs and the RSFSR. The Germans, previously centered in-the Lower Volga Region of the RSFSR and the Ukrainskaya,SSR, are now dis- persed through the eastern regions of the RSFSR and Central Asia. 2. 214amics of Soviet Nationality Distribution , Two major trends are evident in the dynamics of Soviet nationality distribution in the 1957-58 period: , 1) a continuing QLL SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECR T Part 1Twq II Population and Manpower dispersion and intermingling of nationalities, characteristic of the Soviet period as a whole; and 2) a regathering of previously scattered groups into their original areas of settlement. The intermingling of Russia's ethnic groups has resulted primarily from the continuing migration sof .Russians, Ukrainians, and Belorussians into the underdeveloped areas of the Union, the most publicized aspect of which has been the "new lands" movement. The effect of this migration as far as the non-Russian areas of the USSR are concerned has been one of gradual Slavification, and the trend has been more apparent in Kazakhstan than in any other area. Reduced to a minority prior to World War the Kazakhs now constitute only about one-third of the population of their? native republic. The new-lands program, bringing an influx of settlers into the republic, is to be continued until the end of the current five-year plan, and it is also planned to direct a great flow of in-migrants into the republic during the extensive industrialization program envisaged for the next few years. The realization of these plans will make the Kazakhs a small minority in their own land and may in time lead to the absorption of Kazakh- stan by the RSFSR. The probable fate of Kazakhstan has been foreshadowed during the past year by the incorporafin of the Karelo-Finskaya SSR into the RSFSR. One of the determinants in this change in administrative status was the heavy Russian movement into the republic which reduced the Karelian and Finnish population, depleted by prewar and World War II migrations into Finland, to small minorities. The effects of Russian migration on the indigenous na- tionalities of Kazakhstan and Karelo-Finland cannot be considered typical of non-Russian areas of the USSR. Actually,-the intensive campaigns to develop the new-lands areas and to industrialize Kazakhstan and Siberia have probably absorbed and will continue to absorb a large part of any excess agrarian population from the traditional areas of out-migration--the northwest and north- central Ukraine, Belorussia, and central RSFSR--which normally would be directed to other areas in which the Russians are in the minority. The only other republic imminently threatened with Slavification is the Kirgizskaya,SSR, where in a few years the 95 SECRET LDeclassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two majority of the population will probably be Russian and Ukrainian. Of the other central As republics, none has *a Slavic minority numbering more than a quarter of the population. The same is true of the Transcaucasian republics, while in the Baltic area only Latvia is more than one-quarter Slavic. In the Ukraine and Belo- russia, probably 15 per cent and 10 per cent of the population, respectively, are Russian, although a considerable additional segment has undergone partial Russification. The second significant trend in the dynamics of Soviet nationality distribution during the past year has been the re- gathering of ethnic groups dispersed wholly or in part during the Stalinist period. This trend is intimately connected with the de-Stalinization program of the present regime and was clearly presaged in the section of Khrushchev's speech to the Twentieth Party Conference which attacked the Stalinist policy of deporting entire nationalities from their homelands, as weJl as by a 1955 decree restoring civil rights to the Caucasian expellees. Probably the most significant aspect of this repatriation--that involving the return of the North Caucasian groups and the Kalmyks exiled in 1943-4- for alleged collaboration with the Germans?was provided for in a 1956 decree of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet. This enactment provided for the restoration of the Balkars, Chechens, Ingush, Kalmyks, and Karachai to their homelands and the recreation of their prewar administrative-territorial unitse The transfer of the Kalmyks, Karachai, and Balkar is to be nnmpleted by 1958, while the terminal date for the return of the Chechens and lngush has been set for 1960. It should be emphasized that this measure does not com- pletely reverse the mass deportation policy of the World Wan II period. No provision has been made, for example, for the return of the Volga Germans and the Crimean Tatars to their homelands, and it is presumed that these groups will be forced to remain in the areas to which they were deported. The trend toward a regrouping of the ethnic groups wholly or partially dispersed during the Stalinist period has not been limited to the nationalities deported during World War il. It has also involved a repatriation of some Estonians, Latvians, an0 Lithu- anians from exile or forced labor. Large numbers of these groups 96 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two Ii44299111ativa_and manpower were exiled after the Soviet seizure of the Baltic republics in 1540-41, in the immediate postwar period, and during collectiviza- tion. It is possible, moreover, that the amnesty decrees of 1953 and 1955 have led to the return of other groups from forced labor camps and areas of deportation, but data are insufficient to reach any definite conclusions. A final current in the repatriation trend involves the return to their homeland of persons who had Polish citizenship on 17 September 1939, This is a return to the policy of 1946-47 when approximately 1.5 million Poles were sent to Poland in ex- change for a lesser number of Ukrainians, Belorussians, and Lithuanians resident in Poland. The current emigration received its first impetus under the repatriation agreement of November 1956 and is expected to be intensified under a new accord of March 1957. Forty thousand were repatriated in 1956 and about 120,000 are expected to emigrate in 19570 The total number of potential repatriates has been estimated at 500,000. Table 2-31 presents the distribution of ethnic groups by union republic. Table 2-31 DISTRIBUTION OF ETHNIC GROUPS BY UNION REPUBLIC: 1958a Ethnic Group Russian SF8R Rusian Others TOTAL Ukrai6skaya SSR Ukrainian kusian Others TOTAL PAr nAnt of Total Population 80 20 100 75 15 10 lco ?Per Cent of Total Ethnic Groua ?Belorusskaya SSR Belorussian 80 Russian 10 Others 10 TOTAL 100 ...?11.Kazakplay4,04 Kazakh 35 Russian and Ukrainian 50 Others 15 TOTAL 100 ? aProjection of data presented in 212_125LLamoilitimItAi with adjustments for the Ukraine, Belorussia, the RSFSR, and Kazakhstan. 97 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Co Ap roved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two Table 2-31 (continued) Per Cent of Total Ethnic Group Population Uzbekskaya,SSR Uzbek Russian Others ? TOTAL Gruz.illskaya S,?!i tIorgi*n Armenian Russian Others TOTAL 60 20 20 100 60 10 10 20 100 Azerbaydzhansk.aya SS,B Azerbaydzhanian 60 Russian 20 Armenian Others TOTAL Litovskaya SSR Lithuanian Russian Others TOTAL Moldavskaya SR Moldavian Russian Ukrainian Others TOTAL Latviyskaya Latvian Russian Others TOTAL 10 10 100 80 15 100 85 5 5 5 100 60 35 5. 100 H Populatipn and ManpQwey.. Ethnic Group Kirgiz Russian Uzbek Ukrainian Others Per Gent of Total Population 45 30 10 10 5. TOTAL 100 T,adz,hikskaya SS Tadihik 60 Uzbek 20 Others 15 Russian TOTAL 100 Armyanskaya SSR Armenian Russian Others TOTAL Turkmen%W.120. Turkmenian Russian Others TOTAL Estonskaya SSR Estonian Russian TOTAL 98 SECRET 80 10 10 100 60 20 20 100 75 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R00240oo2nnmn Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population. F. Labor Force 1. The "Gainfully Occupied" Population The 1958 "gainfully occupied" population of the USSR totals an estimated 113.8 million persons (see Table 2-32), or 55 per cent of the total population as derived from Soviet sources. The large proportion which are estimated to be gainfully occupied may in large part be associated with the problem of underenumeration (see Section II. C.) of the total population. However, it is also the result of using in the present study the "gainfully occupied" con- cept which has been traditionally utilized in Soviet censuses. A more restrictive Soviet concept of employment will be discussed later in this section, where certain new Soviet data will be pre- sented. Table 2-32 THE GAINFULLY OCCUPIED POPULATION OF THE LR: 1958 (Numbers in millions) Males Females Total Total 61.6 52.2 113.8 Urban 27.1 17.0 114. I Rural 34.5 35.2 69.7 The estimated gainfully occupied population in Soviet urban areas closely approximates the western concept of labor force, in that men and women engaged for the most part in full-time economic activities are included, while youths under age 16 are included only if they engage in full-time employment. The number of females gainfully occupied in Soviet urban areas appears low in comparison'l with the number of males, but aaually the proportion of urbanife- males who are working is quite high. In 1958, 35 percent'of all urban females (and 50 per cent of women ages 16-49) were gainfully occupied as compared with only 31 per cent in 1939. In rural areas, approximately the same number of males and females are gainfully occupied, although the number of women greatly exceeds the number of men in the total rural population. The estimate of persons gainfully occupied in rural areas is arti- ficially high, as is true for any predominantly agricultural 99 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Co y Approved for Release 2013/08/27 CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 111.20.092.421AAJAMVU: population where the gainfully occupied concept is utilized. Youths who work part-time after school hours, on weekends, and during the summer school vacation are considered gainfully occupied. Similarly, womem who work only during the harvesting season are also included. Even the level of employment of men is exaggerated, since off- season and other unemployment is not taken into account. In general, it is considered that the above estimates for the? urban population are a fairly accurate representation of the actual urban labor force, whereas the estimates for the rural pop- ulation more closely approach an estimate of the potential rural labor force. 2. Categories of Gainful Employment The largest single category of the gainfully occupied in 1958 consisted of workers and employees (see Table 2-33). This category is now significantly larger than the collective and indi- vidual farmer group; together, these two categories comprise 85 Table 2-33 icwie G?.15 CATEGORIES OF GAINFUL EMPLOYMENT: 1 January 1958 Category Workers and employees Collective and indi- vidual farmers Military Forced laborers Cooperative and non- cooperative handi- craftsmen Othersa TOTAL Number Males 28.2 21.4b 3.2 1.3 2.0 in millions ,Per Cent Females Total of Total 23.1 51.3 45.1 23.6b 46.0b 140.4 14-.5 3.9 .3 3.5 3.1 mommis. .6 61.6 52.2 1.9 6.6 1113L8 107 5.8 100.0 alncludes persons who by definition are excluded from re- ported categories '(defense workers, full-time Party and Kom- somol officials, and self-employed persons) or who, in relation to Soviet data having a more restricted definition of employ- ment, are not usually employed throughout the year in a leading branch of the national economy. bResidual. 100 SECRET ?..ysrrid for Release 50-Yr 2013/08/27 CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 0 SECRET Part Two -1-11-42"ancnower per cent of the gainfully occupied population. In the 1939-55 period, however, workers and employees increased from about one- third of the total gainfully occupied to 45 per cent, while col- lective and individual farmers, despite annexations of predomi- nantly agricultural populations after 1939, decreased from more than 50 per cent of the 1939 gainfully occupied population to about 40 per cent of the 1958 gainfully employed. These trends are expected to continue. Reported Soviet data in 1955 confirm ARD's estimate that females constituted 4-5 per cent of the total number of workers and employees in that year. In the immediate future, the pro- portion of such persons who are women is expected to remain relatively constant and may even decline slightly. The dis- torted sex ratio among collective and individual farmers as a consequence of heavy male military casualties in World War II is becoming more normal each year, as the number of persons enter- ing the working ages are about equally split between males and fAmAlAc, The cistimated sex ratio in 1958 is 110 females for each 100 males gainfully occupied. 30 Etported Data on ____.........nledPersone Unlike much of the new data concerning Soviet population and workers and employees, material concerning "employett persons" is of questionable usefulneqs and, in fact, taken as a whole, is perhaps one of the grossest statistical monstrosities to appear in Soviet literature. This may be illustrated as follows: Three thisles in Narodnoye khozyaystvo (1956) have a direct bearing? on the total USSR labor force. The first (on page 19) deals with social classes of the working population and their dependents, but the definition of such groups as lworkers an' employees" and-"col- lective farmers" apparently differs significantly from data shown in two general labor force tables. The first of the general labor force tables (on page 187) deals with the "distribution of the population employed in the USSR national economy by branches." Only percentages are shown, however, and these are rounded so severOy as to make them almost worthless. In the second (on page 188) the "distribution of the population employed in the USSR nat- ional economy in productive and nonproductive branches" is reported, but again only as percentages of an unknown total, although they are rounded by one less digit. Comparison of ffiese two tables is 101 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower further impaired by the use of different classifications of "branches of national economy" in each, and one is also confronted with the problem of components which are not compatible. It has been offical- ly stated that student-members of families of collective farmers (probably those 16 years of age and above) who work part-time (e.g., during their vacation periods) on collectives are listed in the balance of labor resources as collective farmers, converted to year-round employment. Members of families of workers and employees Who are employed in auxiliary private economy, however, are cal- culated by determining the quantity of labor (man-days) expended. Thus, the problem arises of interpreting A rARult whinh is com- pounded of amounts of accredited time worked and the number of persons working. Study of available materials leaves the following impres- sions: 1) Soviet authorities appear more interested in obscuring than in clarifying the size and distribution of the Soviet labor force; 2) the materials on which these tables are based are un- certain, both in terms of quality and scope; and 3) the components are often not compatible and the labor force concept which emerges, in some respects, is similar in meaning to that which might obtain from counting watermelons and grapes. Two methods may be utilized in attempting to derive abso- lute data on employment from the table appearing on pagec188 1) Members of industrial artels, according to the table, constitute 1.8 per cent of the "total employed (excluding military personnel)." If an absolute figure were available for members-of artels, the total labor force could be derived, and as a consequence of obiain- ing this total, the numbers in all other branches of national economy. On the following page, members of artels in 1955 are re- ported to have totalled "1.8 million persons." However, on page 44 of the same source members of artels are reported in the same year to have totalled 1 6 million persons. To this should be added the note that various Soviet sources in the postwar years have consistently reported the- number of artel members as on the order of 1.8 million. For example, Pravda has reported that members of artels totaled 1,865,000 in 1953 and 1,961,000 in 1956. The effects of using either 1.6 million, 1.8 million, or 1,961,000 on the size 102 SECRET Imiomminsim Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 14. Population and ,Manpower of the "total employed (excluding military and nonworking students is as follows: Assumed Number of Members of Artels 1,6001000 1,800,000 1,961,000 Resulting Total Employed (e)ccluding Military) 88,888,889 100,000,000 108,9)4,4+ Thus, there is a difference of 20 million in total employed depend- ing upon which figure is used for members of artels. Various hypo- theses can be offered as a possible explanation of the divergences in the reported number of artel members. It is possible that i6 million represents an annual average, while the other figures are end-of-year figures. A more plausible conjecture by specialists outside the USSR is that the smaller figure is a ?less inclusive one, excluding members of artels who are not engaged in "material branches of production." (2) Another method may be used to check the above results By combining subcategories of the table on page 188 (appearing as Subcategories a and 'b of Category land all of Category 2 in Table 2-3+)'a percentage can be obtained of the tptal employed which is roughly equivalent to the data on workers and employees as reported in Nrodnoelmastvo on page 189. Dividing the latter by the former, a? 1955 total employment figure (excluding military) of 85,43$1162 is obtained. This result is not basically incompatible with the result of 88,888,889 obtained by Method 1 above, since the subcategories as combined from the table on page 188 have been admitted by the Central Statistical Administration to be "slightly more complete (included are hired personnel of collectives, social organizations and other small groups)" than the data on workers and employees alone. To summarize available statistics on total Soviet employ- ment are exceedingly crude and of unknown reliability. However, it appears that in preparing Narodnoye khozyaystvo Soviet statis- ticians used a figure on total employment) excluding military and nonworking students, of about 89 million. This figure, as well as the implied distribution among branches of national economy, is shown in Table 2-11-. In Column 4-of the table, the results ob- tained for 1955 by Method "l are shown (assumOtion: members of artels constitute 1.6 million persons) and this column is believed 103 SECRET IIIIMWM1111/1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two 11422211,2:iimmAnilLanpower Table 2-54 DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION EMPLOYED IN PRODUCTIVE AND NONPRODUCTIVE BRANCHES OF THE USSR NATIONAL ECONOMYa (Numbers in thousands) Total employed in state and cooper- ative enterprises and institutions and on kolkhozes and private subsid- iary farms (exclud- ing military per- sonnel) 1. I branches of material produc- tion (including freight transport and trade) a. Workers b. Engineering and technical personnel, em- ployees, subor- dinate mainte- nance personnel, trade workers c. Members of in- dustrial artels (1,600) d. Kolkhoz workers employed on col- lectivized farms and private sub- sidiary farms (337333) (3+,726)(3)+1714) (32,039) 11-1700) d. Individual peas- ants and unin- corporated handicraftsmen (355) (7,298) (1,578) (342) (400) Method 1 1955 88t882 76,827 MestiOd 2 1950 Estimates for 1 Jan., 1958 (in 1955, thousands) 85 ,4-3 8 9 2 800 75,733 67,531 6,007 72,793 79,100 (28,089) (114,905) (20,197) (26,998) (29,400) In nen\ Y) 'V) ( (G nnAl ko,771) (r 8 i0 ) (8,715) (moo) (1,690) (11183) (17538) (1,600) a The 1957 edition of Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR, received while these Annual Estimates were in preparation, contains data_showing the proportion each category of the employed population represents of the total. The most significant changes revealed by these data involve an increase in the proportion of workers and a reduction in that of industrial artel members. These changes are primarily the result of the transfer of certain indus- trial cooperative enterprises to state industry and the consequent reclas- ification of their 60d1000 members as workers. 104 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R00240007nomn Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two ij,21,3agiat man mer Table 24+ (continued Method 1 1 Estimates foril Jan. Method 2 1958 (in 1950 thoupilds) f. Members of fam- ilies of workers and employees employed in priv- ate subsidiary farms (3,289) (1,921) (2,5'25') (3,161). (3,500) 2, In nonproductive branches (education, public health, com- munal housing, pas- senger transport and communications, state administrative apparatus, public and cooperative organizations) 13,156 9,296 10,888 12 645 13,700 to be more valid than the results for 1955 shown under Column 3 which were obtained by Method 2 (assumption: Subcategories a and b of Cat- egory 1 and all of Category 2 are approximately equal to exactly re- ported data on the number of workers and-employees). However, in the absence of a comparable figure on artel members for 1940 and 1955, the results of utilizing Method 2 are considered more valid in study- ing the changes through time among the branches of national economy) since the method can be held constant. The most striking change? suggested in Table 2-34 is the de- cline in the number of EA.rsons employed in the two subcategories "kolkhoz workers employed on collectivized farms of kolkhozes and an private subsidiary farms" and "individual peasants and unincor- porated handicraftsmen." In 1940, 42 million persons, or 54.7 per cent of the total employed (excluding military), were doing such work, as compared with only 36 million in 1950 and about 33 mil- lion in 1955. In 1955 the two categories amount to only 37.9 per cent of the total employed (excluding military). A second trend of interest in Table 2-31+ is the indication that wage earners (rabochiye or, roughly, blue collar workers) almost doubled between 1940, from about 15 million to about 28; 105 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R0074nnn9nnno_n 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower million. The subcategory "engineers, salary earners, subordinate maintenance personnel, and trade workers" also expanded significant- ly, by about 2 million persons between 1940 and 1955. In Table 2-35 the distribution of employed persons among somewhat different branches of the national economy is quoted di- rectly from Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR. Rough estimates for each of the categories specified can be obtained by multiplying the approx- imate reported percentages for 1955 by the assumed total employed (excluding military) of 89 million. A similar absolute figure for total employed (excluding military) in 1913, 1928, and 1937 is not given in the Soviet source. However, the reported percentages illustrate very well the long-term effects of industrialization-- the enormous decline in agriculture and forestry going hand in hand with an expansion of employment in industry, education, and public health. It is possible to estimate roughly the proportion of collec- tive farmers engaged primarily in nonagricultural activities. By comparing Tables 241- and 2-35 a residual of 4 per cent, or 3.6 million persons, can be obtained for farmers engaged primarily in construction and subsidiary enterprises on collective farms. From a breakdown of labor days earned in terms of various types of activi ties, it is estimated that about 1.1 million collective farmers worked primarily in administrative-service activities on collective farms in 1955, and that the number of collective farmers employed primarily in nonagricultural activities totaled 4.7 million, or 11+ per cent of persons reportedly employed on collective farms. 1+. The Concepts of Gainfully Occupied and Employed Persons Explicitly excluded from "employd persons" as reported in 112rodnuLthayilyiLILNELE were military personnel, and inspection of Tables 2-34 and 2-35 does not reveal any subcategory where the work of concentration camp inmates and similar laboring groups might be conveniently hidden. Reductions of military personnel in the last few years have been reported, but the Order of Battle esti- mate as of May 1957 indicates that the USSR still has under arms 4.5 million men, including some 400,000 MVD and KGB personnel. Most of the nonvoting adults, including forced laborers, are of prime working age (see Section C.I. 1958 Age-Sex Structure) and may therefore be presumed actually employed. 106 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release S@ E50-YCr 2R013E/08T/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET II. Population and Manpower Table 2-35 DISTRIBUTION OF THE POPULATION EMPLOYED IN THE USSR NATIONAL ECONOMY, BY BRANCHES Estimates for In Per Cent of To71a1 1 Jan. 1958 113 1928 1937 190 (in thousands Total employed (exclud- ing students and mili- tary service personnel) 100 100 1C0 100 92,800 In industry (including small- and large-scale) and in construction 9 8 24 31 28,800 In agriculture and for- estry (including sub- sidiary private farms) 75 80 56 43 39,900 In transportation and communication 2 2 5 6 5,600 In trade, public dining, and material and tech- nical supply 9 3 4-5 ,600 in education and public health 1 2 5 9 8,300 In communal housing, in other branches, and in organs of state admini- strations and the ad- ministrative apparatus of cooperative and public organizations LE 5 6 6 5,600 In organs of state admin- istration and the ad- ministrative apparatus of cooperative and public organizations (3) (2) (1 900) Even apart from the exclusion of these groups from the reported "employed persons," however, it must be mentioned that the new data in Narodnoye SSSR represent a restrictive definition of labor force. This may be contrasted with the more inclusive approach utilized in Soviet censuses as well as in the censuses of various other nations of the "gainfully occupied " Soviet authorities have stated that the data shown in Narodnoye khozyaystvo "roughly corresponds" with the definition "persons having an occupation' used in-the census of 19264 'Actually, this does not appear to be true, unless "roughly corresponds" is inter- preted to mean "exceedingly rough!' correspondence. Various 107 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 MEMEMEMMAMMJI Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower researchers have attempted to derive an estimate of the "gainfully occupied" population in 1939 by using as a starting point the age- sex composition of the 1939 population, and by modifying where,posi- ble 1926 labor force participation ratios for different age and sex groups to reflect as much as possible the actual conditions of 1939. These studies have consistently estimated that the 1939 "gainfully occupied" population (including military) amounted to approximately 50 per cent of the total population, a finding which is compatible with the results of the 1926 Soviet census after subtracting the number of very young children counted in that census a; part of the "gainfully occupied" and is also compatible with studies of various other countries similar to the Soviet Union. However, the computations as indicated in Table 2-34 imply that Soviet statis-.. ticians used ,a total employment figure of about 77 million for 1940. In July 1939 military personnel constituted less than 3 million persons (including MVD), and forced laborers have been estimated at 3.5 million. Combining these three figures--771 3, and 3.5-- yields an employment figure of 8-81+ million, or only 43-44 per cent of the total 1940 population. Such an all-inclusive approach to the problem of assessing labor force as the "gainfully occupied" concept, however, is known to err in the direction of overstating actual employment due to the inclusion of large numbers of women and youths in rural areas who are engaged in farm work only on a part-time or seasonal basis. The concept of "employed persons" used in Narodnoye khozvavstvo, on the other hand, probably understates actual employment. This may occur in two ways: 1) the actual labor force is minimized by use of averages or man-year equivalents instead of "counting heads" employed at a given time; and 2) the actual labor force is minimized by disregarding persons not officially employed, marginal labor, and, in particular, miscellimeous and nondescript occupations. The most important difference between ARD estimates of "gainfully occu- poWand Soviet data on "employed persons" refers to the category of collective and individual farmers. ARD's estimate, obtained as a residual by subracting other groups from the computed total gain- fully occupied, amounts to 46 million, whereas as shown in Table 2-34, following data in Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR a rough estimate of 34 million is obtained. Apart from questions of the accuracy 108 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower of the method used to derive the figure of 34 million, as described above, it appears that the lower figure partially or fully excludes youths "gainfully occupied" under age 16 which, according to the ARD estimate, amounts to about 7 million. The remaining difference of 5 million could presumably be due to the use of different con- cepts and/or inaccuracies in the methods of derivation. 5. Distribution of Gainfully Occupied Population by Union Republics Reported Soviet data imply an employed population (exclud- in military, forced laborers, self-employed persons, and persons officially not employed) in 1958 of 92.8 million (see Section F. 4). ARD's estimate of the gainfully occupied popullation, more compreii hensive in coverage than the Soviet data, indicates a gainfully occupied population in 1958 of nearly 111+ million. A distribution of the gainfully occupied population by union republic (see Table 2-36) was obtained by computine the prewar coefficients between gainfully occupied in each union republic to eligible voters) multiplying these coefficients by the postwar number of eligible voters in each republic, and adjusting the resulting preliminary estimate to the required total. By utilizing the voting statistics which are tabulated on a de facto population basis, the effect is to produce a de facto distribution of the gainfully occupied popu- lation, in contrast to the de jure distribution of total population among union republics as derived from recent Soviet data. For this reason, gainful employment cannot be legitimately expressed as per cent of the population of each union republic, but rather as the 1- ratio of the gainfully occupied population to the total population of each republic (shown in Column 2 of Table 2-36). Inspection of Table 2-36 reveals that the ratio of gain- fully occupied population to total population is highest in Estonia and Latvia. This is not surprising since it is known that the de jure population of these republics is significantly lower than the de facto population and, in addition, that these areas have a higher percentage of population in the working ages as a consequence of relatively low birth rates and relatively high proportions of persons in the older ages. In the Ukraine, Belorussia, and Lithuania the ratio of gainful employment to population is also high) in part due to the extensive participation of the rural population in farm 109 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1111111 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET II. Population and Manpower Table 2-36 ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF THE "GAINFULLY OCCUPIED" POPULATION BY UNION REPUBLIC: 1 January 1958 Russian SFSR Euroman Russia (excluding RSFSR) Ukrainskaya,SSR Belorusskaya SSR Litovskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR Transcaucasus Gruzinskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR and Central Asia Kazakhskaa qSR Uzbekskaya SSR Kiegizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR TOTAL USSR Number (in thousands) 65 8+a 33,885. 187 4,700 1,5+7 1 ,422 1,263 766 4.450 1,909 1,756 885 ? 1 31,-71 3,14.81 839 845 656 113,800 a Includes Karelo4inskaya,SSR. Ratio of Gainfully Occupied to Total Population 56)4- 5212 58.0 57.7 57.2 51.7 61.9 67.3 42- 47.1 49.6 52.4 1.2 46.0 42.0 145.4 46.8 55.2 work, In the Transcaucasus and the Kazakhskaya SSR and Central Asia, Moslem tradition prevents many women in urban areas from undertaking gainful employment. 6. Trends in Main Working, Ages The number of persons expected to be within the main work- ing ages (15-51) during the period 1955-75 is based upon projec- tions of the 1955 estimated Soviet population to 1960, 1965, 1970, _(see Table 2-37). It has been assumed that no major war or calamity or significant volume of immigration or emigration will occur during this period. The number of persons in the main working ages will increase modestly until 1965 as a consequence of the entrance into the work- ing ages of persons in the severely reduced birth cohorts born dur- ing and immediately following World War I. For example annual 110 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 124 Two SECRET II. Population and Manpower. Table 2-37 PROJECTED USSR POPULATION! IN WORKING AGES,(15-54): 1955-75a (Numbers in millions) Year Males Females Total 1955 54.2 63.3 117.5 1960 57,6 65.1 122.7 1965 60.2 65'09 126.1 1970 66,4 69.0 135%4 1975 74.4 7)4:04 148.8 aEstimates prepared by U. S. Bureau of the Census, entrants are expected to decline from 1-i- million in 1957 to about 2 million in 1960, but thereafter the annual number of entrants will again increase. The total number of persons in the main working ages, however, is not expected to decline between 1955 and 1960, since the aging of the population will, place a larger number of persons in the older proportion of the 15-54 age span. Thus, the average age of the Soviet working population in this period will increase significantly. This could be of importance to the Soviet aim of increasing worker productivity. After 1965 the working age population will grow at a rate approximately double that of the ten preceding years. The greatest increases in the period 1955-75 are expected in the male population of working age, principally as 'a result of the replacement of war-reduced age groups by age groups having a relatively equal number of men and women., Under the hypotheses of no wars and no international migr'ation, by 1975 the number of men will approximate the number of women of working age in the Soviet Union. The male population ages 15-54 is usually a rather accurate index of labor force, the small number of nonworking males (prin- cipally students and technically unemployed) being compensated or overcompensated by persons in the labor fore above age 55 or be- low age 15. The female population ages 15-5+ is much less accurate as an index of labor force and more closely approximates what might be termed the maximum potential female labor force under conditions approaching optimum stress. 111 SECRET 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower ' The male population eligible for military mobilization during the next several years is also expected to increase at a rapid rate. Soviet males in the prime military ages (20-34) will number about 29 million in 1960, as compared with about 25 million in 1955 (see Table 2-38), an increase of 16 per cent. In the same period, the number of males ages 20-34 in the U.S. is expected to remain constant. After 1960, however, it is anticipated that the number of USSR males in this age group will decline sharply and will show an increase only in 1975. Table 2-38 COMPARISON OF USSR AND U.S. PROJECTED POPULATIONS (MALES) IN PRIME MILITARY AGES (20-34): 1955-70 (Numbers in millions) Year 1955 1960 1965 1970 USSRa U. 25.1 17.4 c.7.117.2 ry- 1 4 27.5 18.5' 27.3 21.9 a U.S. Bureau of the Census estimates. Adapted from P.K. Whelpton$ Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 194571975$ (1947), p. 81 ff. 7. Workers and Employees1 The current trend in Soviet planning is to achieve greater industrial output through increased labor productivity rather than through an increase in Manpower. Soviet authorities have attested t6 the key role of increased industrial productivity for the future of the Soviet economy in such recent statements as "...The growth of labor productivity is the decisive factor in raising the entire national economy. Our task is now to surpass the United States in the level of labor productivity... In the Sixth Five-Year Plan 1 Workers and employees as used here (approximating wage and sal- ary earners in this country) comprise all persons employed by the state and paid wages or salaries, with the exception of the military and the MVD and KGB, defense workers, and full-time Communist Party and Komsomol workers. Includes three major groups: production workers, white-collar and administrative employees, and engineering- technical personnel (ITR). 112 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Mgatier increased labor productivity must secure 85 per cent of all increase in industrial output." Although sizable increments of workers and employees will undoubtedly continue, the total number recruited in the future will probably decline, particularly during the next decade when the large wartime birth deficit will seriously inhibit the manpower reserve available for the labor force. Recent Soviet data provide for the first time since 1935 a consistent set of figures for workers and employees in terms of the total and by sectors of em- ployment. Utilizing these data it is now possible to assess with greater accuracy postwar trends in the worker and employee segment of the economy. Table 2-39 reveals a gradually smaller increment of workers and employees during successive Five-Year Plan periods. Between 1945-50 the total increment was 11.5 million, almost as large as the 12 million recruited during the First FivA-Yanr Plan, 1Q2P-12. At that time a large pool of workers was required immediately to operate the expanding industrial economy; during the remainder of the prewar period the increment declined considerably. During the initial period of postwar reconstruction it was necessary to re- cruit vast numbers of workers and employees to replace war losses and rehabilitate the economy. The subsequent increment was almost 3 million less at that time. The 8.1 million recruited during 1951-55 included 1.4 million tractor drivers transferred in October Table 2-39 WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES IN THE USSR: 1541-61 Increase or Decrease Number Absolute Annual Average Year' (in thousands (in thousands) 1541 31,500 1914. 28,300 1951 39,800 1956 47,900 (1958) (51,250) 1961 55,000 -3,200 - 640 +11,500 +2,300 + 8,100 + 1,620 + 7,100 + 1,420 113 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two ii.2.22atigim.anilassen 1953 from collective farm to MTS payrolls so that the actual in, - crease of unskilled labor and trained reserves was only 6.4 million, or an annual average of 13- million. The current Five-Year Plan (1956-60) provides for an in- crease of 7.1 million, or an average 'annual increaSe of i1+2 million. Reports on the 1956 Plan fulfillment, however, indicate an increment of 2.1 million, including 600,000 members of artels of a number of enterprises of producers cooperatives who officially became workers and employees when these enterprises became a part of state industry. This levy of manpower augmenting the planned increase of workers and employees may have been necessary to meet production goals.. If the plan for 55 million workers and employees by 1961 is main- tamed, the annual average increase during the next 1+ years will be only 1.25 million, the lowest of any of the previous Plans. Of course, a gradual increase in productivity per worker may require a further revision of manpower needs during the remainder of the current Plan period. In January 1957 the goal of 50 mi1lidn1 workers and em- ployees in the USSR was finally reached, and this group exceeded in number those working on collective farms. Since workers and employees are essentially urban in characteri the disparity be- tween this group and agricultural labor should continue to increase, particularly as the urban population continues to expand. Distribution ? Total Workers and Employees. For the first time since 1936, complete data are available on the distrihution of workers and employees among the union republics? of the Soviet Union. An examination of these data indicates that the basic pattern. of distribution evident ;r1 na++Arn determined in 6? large part by the industrialization of the thirties--continues with few significant changes. More than 80 per cent of the Soviet Union's workers and employees in 1958 are found in the RSFSR and the Ukrainskaya SSR, and although several of the smaller republics have gained at the expense of the Ukraine, the decrease in this republic in the 18-year period has amounted to only 2 per cent. Perhaps the best index in measuring the significance of the distribution of workers and employees is by means of differ- ential rate of growth of the individual republics in the periods 11+ SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-nin4nPnn9Annnonnrm (-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two I I. PopuJp.? ion and Manpower 1940-50 and 1950-58. Wartime devastation and reconstruction in the western areas, the transfer of industry eastward to the Urals and Siberia, and the postwar establishment of new industrial concentra- tions in the east have led to the shift of workers and employees to the new areas. The large increases within the Kazakhskaya SSR during these two periods (see Table 2-40), reflect the transfer of evacuated industries during the war, the exploitation of local mineral resources, and the construction of a multitude of state farms and MTSs during the virgin lands program in 1954-55. The outstanding increases within the Moldvaskaya, Litovskaya, and Latviy- skaya SSRs--all prewar annexations of the USSR--are the result of great postwar expansion and the absorption of many formerly self- employed persons into the workers and employee segment of the labor force. The increments in the Ukrainskaya and Belorusskaya SSNs, among the lowest for the period 1940-583 were limited in ..he years 1940=50 by immense war losses in these areas. Since 1950, however, Table 2-40 DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH OF WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES IN THE USSR: 1940, 1950, 1958 Number 4p thousands) Per Cent Charles. publib 1940a 1950h 190, 1940-50 1950658 Russian SFSR Ukrainskaya SSR Belorusskaya SSR Uzbekskaya SSR Kazakhskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Litovskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Tadzhikskaya SSR Armyanskaya SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Estonskaya SSR TOTAL 20;778 25,660 33,364, 23.5 30.0 6,202 6,729 8,900 8.5 32.3 1,062 971 1,324 -9,11+ 36.3 693 81-1- 1,090 18.9 32.3 917 1,423 2,279 55.2 60.1 454 605 7t6 33.3 23.3 456 552 626 21.1 13.4 187 328 500 75.4 52.1+ .1.,,rodr;" 01 r-vr-0 &C) t Lit 62,5 .e)) ?-r ? 264 429 564 .62.5 315, 165 328 46.7 35.5 139 169 239 21.6 11+2 227 303 59.9 33.5 173 200 15.6 04.5 , 179, ?81 63 57.0 22.2 31:906 38,895 51,250 21.9 31.8 aAs of September. bAnnual average. cAs of 1 January. 115 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two Ili Poquitii2n_anst.Matuttc workers and employees in these two republics have increased at a rate which is slightly above average. Industrial Workers and Employees. Industrial workers and employees in the USSR in 1958 constitute slightly more than one-third of total workers and employees, and their geographic distribution, in general, follows the pattern of distri- bution of the larger group. For example, 65.1 per cent of all workers and employees and 68.5 per cent of industrial workers and employees are found within the RSFSR; within many of the smaller republics the correspondence is even closer. A comparison of the rates of growth of total and industrial workers and employees in the period 1950-58 reveals that in about half the republics the magnitude of change has been fairly close to the national average of 32.4 per ceni. Within the RSFSR, total workers and employees increased 30 per cent; the industrial sector increased 28.5 per cent (see Tables 2-40 and 2-41). Kazakhstan is the outstanding exception: the increase in the over-all group was almost twice that of the industrial sector. An influx durinethe virgin lands program of approximately 200,000 agricultural workers plus workers and employees in the various supporting services, how- ever, in large part contributed to this disparity. Within the individual republics, the increase of industrial workers and employees ranges from a low of 28.5 per cent in the RSFSR to a high of 117.6 per cent in the Litovskaya SSR (see Table 2-41). Although in absolute terms the increase in the RSFSR was greatest, the low percentual increase reflects the location in this area of many old, relatively well-established industrial centers Which, in many cases, have probably reached the peak of their development. All other republics increased at the expense of the the RSFSR, although for the majority the increase was not substantial. The greatest increases occurred within the Litovskaya, Moldavskaya, Kirgizskaya, and Armyanskaya SSRst indicating that postwar industrial- ization in the Soviet Union has not been confined to any particular geographic region. The outstanding growth in the Litovskaya SSR reflects the development of the republic's industrial potential to an extent comparable with that of the other two Baltic republics. Increases within the Ukrainskaya and Belorusskaya SSRs sugest continuing industrialization within these areas even though the locus 116 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET H. Population and Manpower Table 2-41 INDUSTRIAL WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES IN THE USSR: 1940, 1950, 1958 Number Per Cent Workers Per Cent (in thousands) and Employees, Increase 1950 :1.98 1950 thil 195M8 Russian SFSR 9,971.12,809 38.9 38.4 28.5 Ukrainskaya SSR 2, 3,278 34.9 36.8 39.6 Belorusskaya SSR 325 505 33,5 3.1 55.4 Uzbekskaya SSR 226 300 27.14 27.5 32.7 Kazakhskaya SSR 368 488 25.9 21.14 32.6 Geuzinskaya SSR 156 206 25.8 27..6 32.0 ?Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR 144 188 25.5 30.0 33.3 Litovskaya.SSR 85 185 25.9 37.0 117.6 Moldavskaya SSR 57 99 22.4 26.4 73.7 Latviyskaya SSR 156 206 36.4:7 36.5 32.0 Kirgizskaya SSR 57 99 23,6 30.2 73.7 Tadzhikskaya' SSR 42 56 Li-.19 23.14 33.3 Armyanskaya SSR 711 117 31.3 38.6 Turkmenskaya SSR 42 56 21.0 22.532.3 Estonskaya SSR 99 131, 3.2. .3.6.41 32.1 11+ 11-11+ 18,723 36.4 36.5 32.1+ TOTAL of industrial concentrations has continued to move eastivOrd. In those republics which in the period 1950-58 show the greatest inr creases, the relationship of industHal to total workers will con- tinue to fluctuate for some years, as industrialization usually precedes the development of services. In the long run, increases in the over-all groups will compensate for the changes in the in- dustrial sectors, and the relationship of the two groups will prob'r 41)1y-tend to achieve the balance shown in the RSFSR, which closely approximates that of the USSR as a hole.' Industrial Workers and Employees in the RSFSR, The newly released data on the distribution of industrial workers and employees among the major geographic regions of the RSFSR in the period 1940-58 make it possible to assess the shift of industrial development from western parts of the republic. The industrial push toward the eastern areas of the RSFSR occurred during the war and reconstruction years, 1540i-50, taper- ing off between 1950 and 1958. In 1940, more than 60 per cent of all industrial workers and employees in the republic were found in the Central Industrial and Northwest Regions; the Urals and Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 117 SECRET ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two Siberia together had less than 25 per cent (see Table 2-142). The tremendous industrial expansion in eastern areas during the war, when many industrial complexes were developed to offset the de- struction of industry in the west, is reflected in the increases in the number of industrial workers and employees: 102 per cent in West Siberia, 84.6 per cent in East Siberia, and 81.5 per cent in the Urals (see Table 2-42). Table 2-42 INDUSTRIAL WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES IN THE RSFSR: 1940, 1950, 1958 (in Per Cent) Per Cent of Total Per Cent Change , Region 1940 1950 1958 1540-50 190856..5 North 2.9 3.0 3.2 33.5 37.5 Northwest 13.5 9.3 9.6 -13.1 32.3 Central Industrial 47.7 40.4 4.0.14. 9.0 28,7 Volga 6.2 7.5 7.5 55.2 31.3 N. Caucasus 6.1 5.4 i ?7 a' n 14..7 40.9 Urals 12.1 17.0 16.5 81.5 ri. 4.-r.) c" W. Siberia 5.2 8.2 8.4 102.0 31.3 E. Siberia 3,3 4,7 4.6 814..6 25,1 Far East ...I:2 ...1-b5' 3.7 aLL TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 28.7 28.5 In the Northwest Region, almost entirely overrun by the Germans, destruction was widespread and the loss of industrial capacity was enormous. As late as 1950 this had not been over- come, and there were 13.1 per cent fewer industrial 'workers than before the war. Destruction in the Central Industrial Region, only partially occupied, must have been almost as great, for the increase there in the.period 1940-50 was only 9 per cent. Although indus- trial reconstruction in these areas had been completed by 1950, in that year the Central Industrial Region had only 40.14 per cent of the republic's industrial workers and the Northwest, only 9.3 per cent. Seventeen per cent of this group were concentrated in the Urals, and in West Siberia the group almost equalled that in the Northwest. The Urals and Siberia represented more than one- third of the total, and the Northwest and Central Industrial Re- gions had decreased to less than one-half. 118 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043Ron94nnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower In the period 1950-58, regional increases tended to stabil- ize. The greatest increase was in the North Caucasus Region (00.9 per cent). The Far East, which in the earlier period had increased more than 90 per cent, showed a minimal growth of 6.5 per cent. The increases in the Urals and Siberia, about average, are rather surprising in the light of recent Soviet announcements of industrial expansion in these areas. Sectors of Employment. The new body of postwar data in- 'cludes information on the various branches of the Soviet national economy, or sectors of employment. Between 191+0 and 1958 the total number of workers and employees increased by 20,058,000, or 64.3 per cent (see Table 2-43). This includes the 1.4 million tractor drivers and the 600,000 members of producers' cooperatives transferred to government payrolls. Excluding this group the in- crease would be 18,058,000, or 57.9 per cent. The 1958 estimateslbased on these reported data, reveal t that UUSpILU au auoviuu, increase in every sector except govern- ment administration, 7 of the 12 sectors have not kept pace with the total increase (see Table 240. Industry remains the largest sector in the national economy, comprising more than one-third of 1 all workers and employees, although it has not increased as much as has rural economy, public health, or construction. Sizable in- crements are expected in the future, but the Soviet leaders are continuing to stress increased labor productivity, so-that the rate of increase in the futur.. P."kv decline. Rural economy underwent a greater percentual increase than any other sector; part of this increase, however, is due to the transfer of the 1.'4 million tractor drivers. Even without this groupi the increase would be 96.1 per cent, reflecting the in- creasing role of agricultural mechanization in the national economy. The large increase in the construction sector betokens the continuing importance of construction projects of all types in Soviet planning. The postwar expansion of health and medical facilities, particularly in rural areas, and the extension of compulsory educa- tion to 7-year and secondary schools, plus the rapid training of specialists for every sector of the economy, have contributed to the large percentual increases of the public health and education sectors. 119 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R00 24777767-71111111111111111111 1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET Table 2-43 DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES BY SECTORS OF EMPLOYMENT: 12451-58 Number (in thousands) .1955 J. Sector Industry Construction Rural economy Sovkhozes MTS Transportation Railroad Water Motor vehicle and other Communications Trade, procurement, and supply Public dining Education Public health Credit and insurance institutions Government administra- tion Others TOTAL 10,967 9,508 11+,1)+4 17,362 18,723 1,563 1,515 2,569 3,172 3,423 2,290 2,532 3,103 5,890 6,168 (1,760) (2,147) (2,1425) (2,832) (3,053) (530) (385) (678) (3,058) (3,115) 3,425 3,111 4,082 5,047 ,5,442 (1,752) (1,841) (2,068) (2,301) (2,438) (203) (190) (222) (285) (312) (1,470) (1,080) (1,792) (2,+61)(2,692) 478 426 542 611 659 2,539 1,Y1-1-7 2,705 2,929 3,023 784 715 659 856 884 2,930 2,551 3.752 1+,582 1+,821 1,507 1,109 2,051 2,627 2,827 262 197 264 265 268 1,825 1,61+5 1,831 1,361 1,239 2,622 1,897 3,193 _4656 .303 31,192 27,263 38,895 48,358 51,250 Industry Construction Rural economy Transportation Communications Trade, procurement, and supply Public dining Education Public health Credit and insurance institutions Government administra- tion Others TOTAL Per Cent of 35.2 5.0 7.3 11.0 1.5 8.? 694 2.5 2.6 9.1+ 9.1+ 0 Tota 34.9 5.6 9.3 11.1+ 1.5 36.11+ 35.9 6.6 6.6 8.0 12.2 10.5 10.1+ 1.4 1.3 6.9 1.7 9.6 e 2 .3 36.5 6.7 12.1 10.6 1.3 6.1 5.9 1.8 1.7 9.5 a' 1 leT 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 2.8 2.11+ 705 -IL+ 5.9 6.0 14.7 8.4 7.0 8.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 aFigures for 1940-55, yearly averages; 1958, estimated as of 1 Janvary. ?Includes employment in geological prospecting organizations, drilling, capital repairs, forestry, municipal housing, and other types of enterprises which were previously reported separately. 120 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two C'RET 11422pulation and Man ower Table 24+, CHANGES IN SECTORS OF EMPLOYMENT: 19+0-58 Sector Increase or Decrease Per'Ceest in thousands) Chang Industry + 7,756 + 70,7 Rural economy + 3,878 + 169.3 Education + 1,891 + 61+.5 Transportation ?4' 2,017 4' 58.9 Construction + 1,860 +1119.0 Public Health + 1,320 + 87.6 Others + 1,151 + 43.9 Trade, procurement, and supply + 1+84 + 19.1 Communications + 181 4' 37.9 Public dining + 100 + 12.8 Credit and insurance institutions ? 6 + 2.3 Government administration_ ' 0 1 administration-. 586 ----04:-..."-- TOTAL +20,Q58 + 64.3 In the transportation sector, the most significant post- war development has been the rapid increase in motor vehiale and other nonrail and nonwater transport, so that the number of workers and employees in this branch is now larger than that in railroad transportation. Only one sector, government administration, has undergone a decrease in workers and employees, Principally the result of the attempt during the past few years to limit the size of the Soviet bureaucracy by the transfer of technically trained personnel from desk jobs to positions in factory and field. Despite comparatively laro percentual increases, none of the sectors, compared with 1940, comprises a much higher or lower proportion of the total number of workers and employees, except rural economy and government administration, Where the changes - are partly the result of arbitrary measures. Rural economy, con-h struction, industry, and public health show increases in per cent of total workers and employees, ranging from 4,8 for rural economy to 0.7 for public health. No change is evident in education. The remaining sectors have declined in per cent of total, particularly government administration which in 1958 is 3.14- per cent lower than in 1940. 121 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manuffejl Considering the development of comparatively stable relation- ships among the sectors, particularly during the postwar period, similar relationships are indicated for the future, barring further arbitrary changes such as the transfer in 1957 of 600,000 members of producers' cooperatives to industry. Industry, construction, rural economy, and government administration, discussed below, have experienced the most significant changes. Industry. Since the advent of the Five-Year Plan in 1928, industry has commanded the largest share of workers and employees within the nonagricultural section of the economy. No other branch of the national economy has grown so rapidly (with the exception of machine-tractor stations in the post- war period--a special case). This rapid increase occurred initially and at the expense of the other sectors. After reaching a peak in? 1937, when the sector represented 37.8 per cant of, total workers and employees, it declined to 35.2 per cent in 1940. Since that time, the increase has closely approximated the total increase of workers and employees and in 1955 was only slightly higher than in 19140. As a result of attempts during the past few years to increase pro- duction through technological advance, stimulated in part by an impending shortage of manpower, it appears likely that no great increment will occur in the near future, certainly none that will increase the percentage. The slight percentual increase indicated by the 1958 estimate reflects the addition through reclassification of 6010,000 members of producer cooperative artels. If this number were excluded, the industrial sector would represent only 35.2 per cent of the total, exactly the same as in 1940. For the first time since World War Il Soviet data have been reported for the ten basic industrial categories, according to per cent of total industrial workers. Applied to the total for workers and employees, these percentages yield absolute figures for each category. Table 2-45 lists the increase of each industrial -category between 1940 and 1958. To some extent the variations are ihdica- tive of the growth and relative importance of each category. Never- theless, more advanced technology and greater labor productivity may vary considerably from industry to industry, obviating the need for greater numbers of workers. Until more detailed information is available, however, an increase in the number of workers and employees 122 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET 11.1_299.09.1kla_and Manpower Table 2- INCREASES IN BRANCHES OF SOVIET INDUSTRY: 1940-58 Absolute in thous?sl Per Cent Machine building and metalworking 2,801 90.0 Light industry 926 41.4 Lumbering, woodworking, and paper 871 lip Food 352 27,7 Fuel 687 97.9 Ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy 547 110.7 Construction materials 761 90L0 Chemical and rubber 213 62.6 Printing 31+ 30.9 Power 176 160.0 Others 333 89.3 TOTAL 7,701 70.2 may he considered an index of increased production and expanded operation. Among the most significant postwar developments has been the rapid increase in the number of workers and employees in the construction materials and power industries (204 and 160 per cent, respectively), reflecting the emphasis on industrial con- struction and the need for additional industrial power. The in- ' IL- -1 11urgical (11(' " cent) also re= kAcc=u 1H um muLal IUU0 y IVe flects this emphasis. The development of producers' goods indus- tries at the expense of consumers' goods industries apparently continues. Since 1940, the number in the food industry has in- creased only 27.7 per cent, less than all other categories; the increase in the printing industry was only 30.9 percent, and in light industry 41.4 per cent. As a result, light industry has dropped to 16.9 per cent of the total and food industry to 8.7 per cent (see Table 2-46). Machine-building and metalworking re- mains the largest category, representing almost one-third of all industrial worker. 123 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET II. Population and Manpower Table 2-46 WORKERS AND EMPLOYEES BY BRANCH OF INDUSTRY: 1940, 1955, 1958 Industr MaChine4uilding and metalworking Light industry Lumbering, woodwork- ing and paper Food Fuel Ferrous and nonfer- rous metallurgy Construction materials Chemicals and rubber Printing 0v,?.^..e Others TOTAL Number in thousands Per Cent of Total 1958 19140 1955' 198 3,147 2,236 1,810 1,272 702 5140 5,966 28.7 31.5 3109 2,899 3,172 20.14 16.7 16.9 2,605' 2,689 1615 15,0 11403 1,563 1,629 1.6 9r00 8.7 1,302 1,393 614 7.5 7,14 454 990 373 1,007 340 503 110 139 110 26o ro5 nml omisame..?1:11:14:4 11014 1,137 554 144 287 208 4..5 5.7 5.6 3.4 5.8 6.1 3.1 2.9 3.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1;0 1.5 1.5 3,6 _La 10,967 17,362 18,723 100.0 100.0 100.0 Construction. The construction sector has continued ? to advance slowly but steadily since the end of World War II, evidencing the greatest percentual increase of any sector other than those which have acquired personnel through the trans- fer from other sections of the economy. The number of construction workers has more than doubled since 1940 and may continue to increase under.present Soviet plans. The 1957 plan to expand housing con- struction, from about 30 million sq. meters in 1956 to more than 35 million in 1957, may require additional woi-kers despite a re- ported 10 per cent increase of labor produCtivity in 1956 by workers in construction. On the other hand, the reported suspension of some of the larger construction projects in the Soviet Far East as a result .of the decrease in some production goals for 1957 may offset any great increase in this sector. Rural Economy. The number of personnel in the agri- cultural sector has fluctuated during the postwar period depending upon' changes in emphasis on agricultural produc- tion and techniques of exploitation. The number of machine-tractor stations and state farms has increased steadily since the end of 121+ SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two ILLIS00211.911Miliall4.92E World War II, particularly during 19514-55 when 581 new state farms were organized. This has resulted in a great increase in person- nel, mostly during the Fifth Five-Year Plan (1950-55). The appar- ently large percentual increase within this sector is somewhat artificial, however, since it includes the 1.:14- million tractor drivers transferred from collective farms to MTSs. Excluding this group, the per cent of total in 1955 would be only 9.2, almost the same as it was in 1945, although certainly an absolute increase over the prewar figure. The training of technical and professional personnel in agriculture continues to play an important role in the economy: in 1956, of 650,000 persons trained in factory, railroad, construction, mining, and agricultural mechanization 0^11,1f11 v., %.7%.011WW4, 250,000, or 38.5 per cent, were sent to work in agriculture. Government Administration. In the 1950-55 period, 470,000 persons employed in central government admin- istrative posts were transferred to positions in other sectors of employment, notably to industry and agriculture. During 1956 the transfer of personnel continued and the recently revised Soviet economic plan for 1957 provides for an even further decrease as greater jurisdiction in the economic field is placed in the hands of republic and regional councils of the national economy. Most of those discharged from the state apparatus will continue to serve in administrative capacities on the staffs of economic institutions. ? 8. Specialists Soviet leaders are exceeding proud and boastful of their "army nj of specialists," as they term the rapidly growing elite of doctors, lawyers, engineers, scientists, economists, teachers, agricultural experts, and managers and technicians in every branch of industry. This is the group which will contribute the most to- ward the development of ihe Soviet economy into a more advanced technological state. That the Soviet leaders are aware of the nec- essity to outstrip the "capitalist countries" in technology and science is readily apparent from their continual comparisons of the rate of development of their own specialists with those of the western countries, particularly with those of the U.S. Bul- ganin, in a speech delivered last year to the XX Communist Party Congress regarding the Sixth Five-Year Plan, stated that "special- ists are our gold reserve; we are proud of them and treasure them. 125 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81----mmm"....11.11.11111111n1n4flPnn9Annnonnnn Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. E2pulation and Manpower Table 2-47 SPECIALISTS IN THE USSR: 1541-61 (Numbers in thousands) Professionals .Se2,imahlui21111 Per Cent , Per Cent Year Total Number. of Total Number of Total 1941 2,400 908 37.8 1,492 62.2 1946 1,225 568 46.4 657 53.6 1951 3,155 1,220 38.7 1,935 61.3 1956 5,553 2,340 42.1 3,213 5709 1958 7,113 3,027 42.6 4,086 57.4 1961 9,553 1+,227 44.2 5,326 55.8 It is not surprising that some public figures in the capitalist countries hnv., notPd with AlArm tht their countries lag us in the training of specialists." The Soviet hierarchy is exerting every effort, not only to increase compulsory education for the masses but also to accel- erate the production of their specialists--the "professionals" (those with college and advanced degrees) and the semiprofessionals (graduates of technical and special secondary schools). If the plan to train million additional specialists during the current Five-Year Plan (1956-60) is fulfilled, it would mean that almost as many will be trained during this period as were trained during the two previous Five-Year Plan periods, 1946-55 (see Table 2-47). That this plan is not exaggerated is indicated in the re- port that 2 million students were attending higher educational institutions (including correspondence courses) during 1956 and that about 2 million were studying in technical colleges and other specialized secondary educational' institutions (including correspondence courses). In addition, the 760,000 new specialists reported in 1956 approaches the planned annual average of 800,000 for the five-year period. During the current five-year period the emphasis on the training of engineers and, during the last few years, of agri- cultural specialists, is pointed up by the plan to train more than 650,000 of these specialists for industry, transport, construction, and agriculture. This would represent approximately 34 per cent of 126 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two jj. Population and Manpower the total professionals to be trained, and about twice the number of these specialists trained during the last Five-Year Plan (1951- 5'5). Serious attention is also being given to the training of specialists for new branches of science and technology, such as automation, telemechanics,radiotechnology, and atomic energy. In addition to regular students, a vast number of persons (3)+ million in 1956) employed in the various branches of the econ- omy were attending evening schools or taking correspondence courses in higher and specialized secondary educational institutions. The other source of skilled labor and technicians is the labor reserve program--the factory, railroad, trade, and agricultural schools training young people between the ages 16-19 for positions in indus- try, transportation, construction, and agriculture. In 1956'; of 'more than 650,000 finishing courses in these schools, approximately 38 per cent were assigned to work in agriculture and the remainder were assigned to industry, transportation, and construction. In the recently published Narodnoye khozyaystvo ?SSSR, the specialists were listed under six basic categories: engineering agriculture, economics, law, health, and education. A residual num- ber not reported has been designated "others." Among both the pro- fessionals and semiprofessionals the greatest number are employed in the fields of engineering, scientific research, and teaching and related cultural activities. Professional engineers, although com- prising a smaller per cent of total professionals than in 1941, are gradually regaining their position after heavy losses.sustained during the war. If the trend' continues, engineers may eventually comprise one-third of all professionals (see Table 2-48) The number of graduate research workers, mostly engaged in scientific research, has increased considerably during the postwar period. As of 1 January 1957 there were 239,000 scientists and scientific research workers, including over 95,000 with doctors' or candidate of sciences' degrees. The number of physicians has increased from approximately less than one per thousand in 1541 to 1.7 per thousand in January 1958. Among the semiprofessionals, the number of graduates of engineering technical schools has increased tremendously since 1541, outstripping the number of semiprofessionals in all other categories. This trend promises to continue during the current 127 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two il_elstion and Manpower Table 2-48 SPECIALISTS WITH HIGHER EDUCATION: 1941, 1955, 1958 .C.B.L.te(g2E.Y. 1 Jan. 12111 1 July 1955 1 Jan. 1958 Number ( in thousands) Engineers 289.9 585.9 84.0 Agronomists, zoo- technicians, veterinarians, foresters 69.6 158.7 226.0 Economists, statis- ticians, commodity experts 59.3 113.8 156.0 Lawyers 20.9 47.1 64.0 Doctors 140.8 299.0 350.0 Teachers and uni- a versity graduates, library and cul- tural education workers Others TOTAL 300.14- 27.1 906.1+ 73.1 11297.0 100.0 908.0 2,184.0 3,027.0 In Per Cent of Total Engineers 31.9 26.8 27.6 Agronomists, zoo- technicians, veterinarians, foresters 7.7 7.3 7.5 Economists, statis- ticians, commodity experts 6.5 5.2 5.1 Lawyers 2.3 2.2 2.1 Doctors 15.5 13.7 11.6 TAanhArs and uni- a versity graduates, library and cul- tural education workers 33.1 1+1 .5 42.8 Others 3.0 3,3 3.3 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 aOther than lawyers, doctors, and economists. 128 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two if. Population and Manpower Five-Year Plan and perhaps beyond. Engineering technicians, med- ical workers (nurses, attendants, etc.), and teachers comprise almost 80 per cent of all semiprofessionals (see Table 2-49). Since 1541 the increase in the specialist class has far surpassed the rise of workers and employees. During the period 1940-57 workers and employees increased by 64,3 per cent, and specialists increased by 196.4 per cent. In 1940 specialists represented only 7.7 per cent of the total number of workers and employees; in 1958 they are estimated to represent 18.6 per cent. G. Urban Living Space in the Soviet Union 1. Urban Housing and the Growth of Urban Population A primary factor in any discussion of the Soviet housing problem is the relationship of housing construction to the growth of urban population. Urban population in the Soviet Union has been increasing since IL? beginning of +km%.? SovietAr nind.?hui: it %.11_ was not until 1929, at the beginning of the First Five-Year Plan, that a serious disparity between available urban housing and the size of the urban population manifested itself. At that time, materials which could have been used for new housing for the great influx of in-migrants were diverted into the construction of factories. Urban population increased 125 per cent between 1926 and 1941, from 26.3 million to 60.6 million, and to keep pace with this increase, total living space should, at the least, have doubled. At the end of 1541, however, living space totaled only 1-1-2.1 million sq. meters (approximately 2.5 billlion sq. ft.), as compared with 153.8 million sq0 meters in 1926. This is reflected in a per-capita decrease from 5.85 sq. meters in 1926 to sq. meters in 1910 (see Table 2-50). Official Soviet estimates place urban housing losses (total- ly and partially destroyed) at 70 million sq. meters. And although the urban population also decreased during the war, the growth in the postwar period (1946-50) was even greater than in the immediate prewar period. It is evident that with the dual problem of restor- ing destroyed housing and providing housing for the increasing urban population, the Soviet government was faced with a tremendous task. Reconstruction began almost on the heels of the retreating Germans and the Fourth Five-Year Plan (19)-6-50) was devoted large- ly to the problems of restoration. In the postwar years the down- ward trend in per-capita living space was finally reversed. By 129 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Two SECRET lit.PosulgjoLI.And Manpwer Table 2-49 SPECIALISTS WITH SECONDARY EDUCATION: 1541, 1955, 1958 Category 1 Jan. 1941 1 July 1955 Technicians 320.1 Agronomists, zoo- technicians veterinary assts., foresters 92.8 254+ 360.0 Statisticians, plan- ners, commodity specialists 36.2 186.1 253.0 Lawyers 6.2 23.2 29.0 Medical workers 39302 731.1 960.0 Number (in thousands) 804.9 1,1+.0 Teachers, library and cultural educa- tional workers Others TOTAL 536.4 107.1 818.6 11160.0 130.8 180.0 1,492.0 2,549.1 1+,086.0 In Per Cent of Tqtg Technicians, 21.5 27.3 28.0 Agronomists, zoo- technicians, veterinary assts., foresters 6.2 8.6 8.8 Statisticians, plan- ners, commodity specialists 2.4 6.3 6.2 Lawyers 0.4 0.8 0.7 Medical workers 26,1+ 14..8 23.5 Teachers, library and cultural educa- tional workers 36.0 27.8 28.14 Others 7.1 4.4 4.4 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 130 11 SECRET Limiiimmomilimimmomm Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower Table 2-50 URBAN HOUSING: 1923-61 Urban Housing Sq. Meters Urban Pop- Olion sq. m.) per person ulation (in Floor Living Floor Living Year millions) Space ,Space *Space Space 1923 21.6 139.1 6.)0: 1926 26.3 153.8 5.85 1933 38.7 191.5 4.95 1937 53.0 220.8 4,17 1941 60.6 42.1 4,00 1951 71.4 513 318.1 7.18 4,46 1956 86.5 640 396.8 7.40 4..59 1957 88.5 681 422.2 7.69 4,77 1958 90.5 722 447.6 7.98 4,95 1959 92.6 763 473.0 8.24 5.11 1960 54.7 804 498.4 8.49 5.26 1961 96.9 845 523.8 8.72 5.10 1951 per-capita living space had increased to 4,46 sq. meters. It is important to note that during the period of the Fourth Five-Year Plan Soviet statisticians began to report urban "total floor space" as if it were "living space." Prior to that time it had been Soviet practice to divide living quarters into living and nonliving space--nonliving space including kitchens, bathrooms, hallways, vestibules, and storerooms; living space including rooms used solely for living purposes. Since 1948 the unit "total floor space," defined as the sum total of all floor space within living quarters, has been used. The official VIN planation for this change is that it was made to bring Soviet - statistical practices in line with other countries, and it has also been stated that living space represents, on average, 62 per cent of total floor space. Thus, the failure to allow for the changed unit of measure creates the illusion that the ratio of housing to population is more favorable than it actually is. A.total of 115.14 million sq. meters was constructed under the Fifth-Five-Year Plan (the planned goal was 105.14 million sq. meters of floor space, to be financed from state funds). In addition, there was constructed 38.8 million sq. meters of floor space by individuals, at their own expense and with state credit. By 1956 urban housing stock had increased to 640 million sq. meters of 131 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Two II. Population and Manpower floor space, or 396.8 million sq. meters of living space, and per- capita living space totaled 4.59 sq. meters (see Table 2-50). The Sixth Five-Year Plan (1956-60) has a planned goal of 205 million sq. meters of floor space to be constructed by the state and its various agencies. No goal for the construction of housing by individuals has been reported. The construction of 205 million sq. meters of floor space is nearly double the amount of construction completed during the previous five years, but for the first time construction in rural communities has been included in the plan figures. The living space figures in Table 2-50 for the years 1957-61 have been projected on the assumption that the Soviet Union will meet its planned objective in housing construc- tion. As can be seen in the table, even if the planned objective is f,ulfilled, the per-capita living space at the beginning of 1961 will still be less than the per-capita living space in 1926. This means that even by 1961 the average Soviet urbanite will occupy an area less than that occupied by a 9 x 12-ft. rug. 2. Large Cities In analyzing Table A-91 Appendix, it should be noted that most of the large cities have a lower per-capita floor space in 1956 than in 1939-40 or 1926. There is also a large regional vari- ation in per-capita floor space. In general, the further east the city is located the lower the per-capita floor space. To some extent these regional differences may be due to the methods used in population counts, that is, the Soviet procedure of in- cluding certain groups (such as forced laborers and deportees) in the population counts in terms of de jure rather than de facto residence. I. SECRET 132 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET PART THREE. THE ASIN B.LQC THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF (4-11AA The Communist PALt4 1. Growth In little more than 35 years the Communist Party of the People s Republic of China has increased from the 50 members re- ported in 1921 to more than 12 million (see Table 3-1) and has become the world's largest national Communist Party, By .1 Jan- uary 1958 it is estimated that Party membership will total 12,433,000, and that 20 of every 1,000 persons or 35 of every 1,000 adults (age 18 and above) will be Party members (see Table 3-2). Year 1921 1922 1923 1925 1926 1927 1928 1930 1933 1937 1940 1910 1542 1944 . Table 3-1 GROWTH OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: 1921-58 Total a M19212milia_ 50 100 300 1,000 57,900 10,000 40,000 122,318 300,000 40,000 800,000 763,447 6,151 73 853,420 Year 191+5 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957(Mar $58 Total Membertipt! 1,211,128 1,348,320 2,759,456 3,065,533 1+1488,080 5,821,604 5,762,293 6,001,698 6,612,254 7,859,473 91393,391+ 10,734,384 .) 12,000,000 12,433,000 a192157 figures, reported; the 1958 figure is a projection of data reported to March 1957. The rise and fall in membership in the ppriod prior to the Communist. ascendancy in 1949 reflected the inner Party adjust- ment to the-changing political situation in China. Party member- ship increased after 1922, when the Communists joined the Kuomintang in the fight against the warlord domination of China, and by 1926 totaled almost 601m. At that time the majority of members were urban workers, students, and intellectuals. The dissolution of the alliance the following year led to mass desertions from the Party's 133 SECR ,E T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @50-Yr 2013/08/27 CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Thrpe SECRET I. jhe EggslgILRepublic of _China Table 3-2 INCREASE IN PARTY MEMBERSHIP PER 1,000 TOTAL AND ADULT POPULATIONS: 19506-58 ? Members per Members per 1,002 1,000 Tota Adult Population Year Population' Akove 1950 10 18 1951 10 18 1952 10 18 1953 11 19 1951+ 13 22 1955 15 27 1956 18 30 1957 19 31+ 1958 20 35 aBased on ARD population estimates. 00...111111?0110.10?11REMPOWSONS ranks, and by the end of 1927 only 10,000 members remained. With the virtual collapse of the urban Communist movement, the Party turned its efforts toward expansion into the rural areas and established its base in south-central China. The? land reform movement, instituted by the Party in the areas under its control, increased Party membership to 3000 by-1933, but repeated attacks by Kuomintang troops against Communist-controlled areas during the 1934-37 period and a severe inta-Party struggle for dominance re- duced membership to 40,000. Late in 1937 the Communists returned to the "United front" tactics of the pre-1927 period and joined the Kuomintang in resist- ing the Japanese invasion of China. ,Membership again began to climb, reaching 800,000 by 1940. Members were recruited largely from the peasarrb-y, and the low educational level and lack of political training of most of the recruits create 'serious disciplinary problems. An "indoctrination" campaign within the Party was launched in 1941.42, and by 1943 Party membership was reduced to 736,151 Thereafter, the Party expanded rapidly and by October 1949, the date of the founding of the People's Republic of China, membership totaled 4,4881o80. Prior to the conquest of the mainland, the Party was pre- dominantly rural in origin and military and peasant in occupation. After the establishment of the republic, however, the Communtes 131+ ECR-ET im,,,ineeifiari in Part - Sanitized CODV Approved for Release 50-Yr 2013/08/27 CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three 14_111.9.Eggple,s Regiblic of China began an intensive recruitment campaign among urban workers and employees and virtually halted recruitment of peasants Between 1950 and 1954 more than two million joined the Party, and most of the recruits were office workers or from the industrial labor force. Since the inauguration of the enforced cooperative farming movement in 1954, the recruitment policy has again changed, and almost all of the six million new members have come from rural areas. 2. Geographic Distribution of the Party The geographic distribution of Communist Party membership varies greatly both in terms of absolute size and in proportion to the populations of the administrative divisions. In general, vari- ations in the incidence of Party membership may be considered one of the useful indices for assessing the sigWicance of an area to the Communist regime. Areas in which the incidence of Party membership is above average are highly urbanized and industrialized or have large.mili- tary contingents. Those with high incidence reflect combinations of these factors. The heaviest concentrations of Party membership are found in the administrative and industrial centers of the northern and northeastern provinces; the lightest concentrations are in the southwestern and northwestern regions (see Table 3-3 and Map IV). In only three provinces--Hopeh, Shantung, and Kiangsu-- is total membership in excess of one million. And only in Tsinghai Province are more than 5 per cent of the total populatioim Party members. Proportionally, there are almost twice as many civilian Party 'members in;urban areas as in rural areas (see Table 3-10 and in only five administrative divisions--Fukien, Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region, Kweichow, Kirin, and Tsinghai--are more than 5 per cent of the urban population in-the Party. Provinces-in which the incidence of Party membership is above.gtverage in-rurii areas reflect, in partl.the presence of Communists, assoeiated.with the. enforced cooperative farming movement, and, in effect,.ihe extent of that movement. 135 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The Peoples Republic of China Table 3-3 ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY MEMBERSHIP BY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISLON: 1958 ..: Total 7Members per Members per 1,000 Administrative Membership 1,000 Totall) Adult Population b Division (in thousands) Population (Age 18 and Above) Anhwei 1I-27 13 22 Chekiang 359 15 26 Fukien 329 24 1+1 Heilungkiang 465 36 66 Honan 589 12 21 Hopeh 1,772 140 70 Hunan 14-27 12 20 Hupeh 442 15 26 Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region 275 311- 5'5' Kansu1414- Kiangsi if?* g 37 Kiangsu 1,021 20 35' Kirin 267 22 38 Kwangsi 324 17 29 Kwangtung 491 13 21 Kweichow 2140+ 15 27 Liaoning 542 25 1+2 Shansi 437 29 49 Shantung 1,228 24 4-1 Shensi 327 19 33 Sinkiang-Uighur 139 28 146 Autonomous Region Szechuan 818 12 20 Tsinghai 106 53 106 Yunnan 476 25 43 Tibet Autonomous Region (Preparatory) na na na Central Government 60 na na Abroad and unlocated 11+1 ........ .......... TOTAL 12,433 20 35' aAll estimates are rough approximations. bBased on ARD population estimates 136 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People'sRepublic of China Table 3-4 Administrative Division Anhwei Chekiang Fukien 250 109 141 Heilungkiang 435 *5 290 Honan 562 56 506 12 Fr? 11 Hopeh 11649 1+11 1,238 36 33 Hunan 390 39 351 11 17 11 Hupeh 400 60 340 13 18 13 Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region Kansu Kiangsi Kiangsu Kirin Kwangsi Kwangt ung Kweichow Liaoning Shansi Shantung Shensi Sinkiang-Uighur Szechuan Tsinghai Yunnan Tibet Autonomous Region (Preparatory) ESTIMATED URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF CIVILIAN COMMUNIST PARTY MEMBERS BY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION: 1958 Civilian Membershipa (in Thousands) Total Urban Rural Members per 1,002 Total Population Total Urban Rural 400 40 360 12 25 12 300 11+0 160 12 37 8 18 64- 11 35 38 33 265 17 g-1.8 35 57 34 325 20 305 23 29 23 350 35 315 19 22 19 920 413 507 18 22 16 1.1.6 138 108 21 53 11 300 301 270 16 18 15 400 loo 300 lo 16 9 214 45 169 13 56 11 44o M 154 20 30 14 400 32 368 26 40 25 1,170 205 965 22 28 25 300 75 225 18 42 15 100 25 75 19 42 16 790 115 675 11 19 10 82 5 77 46 50 45 425 42 383 23 47 22 na na na na na na TOTAL 11,113 2,543 8,570 21 30 16 aAll figures are rough approximations; exclude Party Professionals, and Party members in the armed forces and security troops in the central government organizations. bBased on ARD population estimates. 137 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part- Sanitized Co .y Approved for Release @50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Three 3. Social Composition On the basis of current social status, it is estimated that almost 8.6 million Party members, or 69.1 per cent of total member- ship, are peasants (see Table 3-5). Despite their numerical pre- ponderance, however, the peasantry remains less "communized" than other sectors of the social complex, and the incidence of Party membership in this group is much lower. Approximately 3 per cent SECRET I. The People's Republic of China Table 3-5 ESTIMATED SOCIAL COMPOSITION OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: Category Peasants Workers Intellectuals Others TOTAL 195'8a Members Per Cent of (in thousands) Total Membership 8,590 1,740 1,453 650 12,433 100.0 aBased on projection of data on sociail in 1956. status reported of peasants are Party members, as compared with 7 per cent of the total number of workers. And within the two smaller categories-- "intellectuals" (white-collar workers) and "others" (in general, members of the armed forces)--the proportion of Party members is more than four times greater than among the peasants. The numerical preponderance of the peasantry will continue in the foreseeable future and may even increase as the regime ad- vances its collectivization program. The numerical growth of Party membership in the other categories will probably parallel the growth of the categories themselves, resulting in slight pro- portional increases. 4. Occupational Composition The occupational composition of Partymembership reflects the same phenomena as does the social composition: numerically, agriculture is the largest category but is weakest in terms of proportional relationship. More than 7 million Communists, or 57.9 per cent of total Party membership, are engaged in agriculture (see Table 3-6), but this number represents only slightly more than 138 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043Rni2etnnn9nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Three SECRET 12--:1-P-294.111.LEitagblia_stf China Table 3-6 ESTIMATED OCCUPATIONAL COMPOSITION OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: 1958a Occupational Category Agriculture Industry People's organizations Party professionals Armed forces Planning, finance and trade Culture and education Transportation and communications Members in thousands 7,196 1,299 1,204 715 650 617 481 TOTAL . Per Cent of Membership 5.7,9 57.9 10.5 9.7 5?7 5.2 5.0 3.9 271 2.2 100.0 12,433 aBased on projection of data on occupational composition reported 1956. 2 per cent of the Chinese agricultural labor force. Although no breakdown of the nonagricultural labor force is ayailable, it is estimated that Communists in the industrial labor force are pro- portionally more than five times as numerous as in the agricultural labor force. In the other categories (excluding Party professionals) it is believed that the proportion of Communists is at least as high as in the industrial labor force and probably is highest in the people's organization category, which includes state administrative employees. The estimated 715,000 Party professionals, the full- time employees of the Party apparatus constitute the most important segment of the Chinese control force 5. Age-Sex Structure By 1 January 1958 it is estimated that more than 8 million Party members, or 67.6 per cent of the total membership, will be between the ages of 25 and 46 (see Table 3-7). The top leadership of the Party falls mostly within the more-than-46 age cohort, and most of the older members are, of course, also senior in terms of Party tenure. The emphasis in current recruitment campaigns, how- ever, is on the younger elements of Chinese society, for it is felt that they are not only more enthusiastic and patriotic but are also more pliable. Proportionally, this group may be expected to in- crease more rapidly in the near future while the older elements will 139 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Three Age Less than 26 26-46 Over 46 TOTAL SECRET I. The People's Republic of China Table 3-7 ESTIMATED AGE COMPOSITION OF THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY: 1958a Members La.. thousands", 3,087 8,397 12,433 Per Cent of Total Membership. 24.8 676 100.0 Members Per 1,000 in Age Group 39 35 aBased on projection of data on age composition reported in 1955. remain rather static. Male membership in the Chinese Communist Party, as of 1 January 1958, is estimated to total 11.2 million, or almost 90 per cent of total membership. Females constitute a small Party minority nationally; however, in a few provinces in the northern and eastern regions, female membership reportedly is as high as 30 per cent of total provincial membership. Nationally, there are 9 female Party members per 1,000 adult women and approximately 142 male Communists per 1,000 adult males. 6. Epliy Organization Under the revision of the Communist Party Constitution by the VIII National Congress in 1956, the Central Party organization was expanded but ihe structure of the Party as a whole remained unchanged. Membership of the Eighth Central Committee was increased from 144 to 97 full members and from 23 to 73 alternate members. Membership of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee was also increased from 13 to 17 full members and a Standing Committee of the Political Bureau was created. According to the new Party statute, representatives to the National Party Congress are now elected for five-year terms and the Congress convenes annually. (As of April 1957, however, no call had been made for the 1957 Congress.) Despite the expansion of central organizations, however, leadership at the top remains unchanged. Thirty-eight of the 41 Seventh Central Committee full members were reelected and all but two of the former alternates were elected full members. Mao Tse-tung continued as chairman of the Committee, with four vice-chairmen and a secretary general. il+o SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 UbliC of cial Party reAsp..als now thtoo yearsh . . . . nnui1y De'egates to Party .r4.00.40$ H4hsien (county) yearlyand the congreases also convene each year0 ro o it?r!orr - n - IL ers rea an members In.,, rural areas Communist membershiphasincreased sharply in the ear re 195'7 that Party member- onincrease of 1 3 million, or 12 per sjx-month perIadGe majority of these recruits are also members of agricultural producers/ cooperatives., areost era an few have had more an a onef introduction ? o Communist eolo olitical consciousness i.on among these recruits brought to the at- eadere the need for a reexamination-of. Party March 7 on the fifteenth anniversary of or adjustmen of-work stYle- movement, the chief nnnnlinelarl _ nifric4.^n44. - r?, 4.? - etermined ?okeep Party members unified also anxious to retain as many Party members new movement is designed as an intensive OCt.r.i...natiO6 :and 'educat iOn -campaign, rather than 'as Partypurge during which-ihdeviation.ists"?are treated as enemies ?- of the .Party. and are expelled.According to official -statements e*P4S.fons from the Party during'the'Cheng-feng-moVement.will be minimal and occur only in "obstinate" cases where. members' . , refuse refOrm" and follow .Party instructions despite reeducation or refuse - :Correct" their thinking. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop A proved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 EC RET Part Three I The People Vs Republic of China The Cheng feng movement will probably continue through most of 1957 in preparation for the Second Five-Year Plan which opens in 1958. Consequently, Party recruitment will probably operate at a low level during the campaign period. 8. The Communi0. Party Youth, Leaue Growth and Distribution. Founded only eight years ago, the Youth League of the Chinese Communist Party will have a membership in excess of 22 million by 1958. In 1952, three years after its organization, the League had 8.3 million members, organ- ized in 360,000 League brancheso later, the Communist press reported 12 million members or 500,000 branches. League member.- totaled 16 million in 1955, and toward the end of 1956, re- portedly totaled 20 million, or 17 per cent of all Chinese youth. Judging from recruitment plans and reports of League activities appearing in official publications, membership will exceed 22 mu- ship A year lion by 19 estimated that by 1958 League members in rural areas will total 13 million, or 21.8 per cent of all rural Youth; about 75 per cant of these are members ni agricultural Producers cooperatives and about 270,000 hold key positions in cooperative administration. The heaviest concentration of Youth League members, about 6 million, is found in the eastern provinces. Four million are in the northeastern and northern provinces, including the Inner Mong- olian Autonomous Region; and 5 million are in the central and south- ern provinces. Only 2 million members are from the northwestern and southwestern provinces; another 2 million are estimated to be in the armed forces. The remaining 2 million have not been located. , Organization. Until its third National CongrPqA, held in May 1957 in Peking, the Communist Party Youth League was called the New Democratic Youth League. Sponsored by the Chinese Communist Party, the League is the equivalent of the Komsomol in the Soviet Union. Its members are youths from 15 to 26 years of age (approximately the same age range as the Komsomol). And al- though officially a league member must resign upon reaching 26 years of age, there are indications that a few members are between the ages of 26 and 28. The League is used as a tool to organize China's younger generation and to build a strong base for future support of its aims and policies. It also serves as ,a Party school for teaching Marxist-Leninist principles and for preparing future 1/4' SECRET Declassified in Part- Sanitized Cop A proved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDPRi_ninaqpnnoArirmn,,,,,,? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Cop Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I The Peo le's Re ublic of China Communist Party members. It is estimated that 2)4- million former Youth Leaguers will be members of the Communist Party by 1958. Although organizationally independent, the League functions under the political direction of the Communist Party. All League committee secretaries are Party members and serve dually as provincial or hsien Party committee members League members also occupy im- portant positions as assistants in the promotion of the Party's programs and objectives. They are used most frequently in local administration as members of administrative committees, people's supervisory committees, and cultural or educational committees. The organization of tha Youth LK"gue follows ^1^sely the organization *.7 organization of the Communist Party itself. The League has a Central Committee, a provincial committee in each province, a city committee in each city, and local working committees-throughout the country, with branches or primary organs in all factories, mining districts, and other industrial organizations, as well as in schools, military units, and rural areas. B. Government The functions, role, philosophy, and fundamental organiza- tion of the government of the Chinese People's Republic, as outlined in the 1957 Annual Estimates, have remained intact, and little change is foreseen in the immediate future. The highest positions in the governmental apparatus will continue to be held by the ranking officials of the Communist Party and most, if not all, officials down to and including hsiang (township) committeemen will be Party members and therfore responsible to the Party apparatus for their acts as government officials. The trAnd toward decentralization of decision-making so noticeable in the Soviet Union and its European satellites will probably not be manifest in China by January 1958. On the contrary, the trend toward greater centralization and specialization of agencies observed during the past few years will probably continue well into 1958. It is feat that only substantial successes by those Communist states participating in the decentral- ization movement, would encourage China to follow suit. The availa- bility of reliable cadres, requisite skills and techniques, and the dictates of tf)e geographic complex indicate that the "loosening of the bonds" in China will only occur in the more distant future. 1)+3 SECRET Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RnPRi_ni rmo A rInnnnrsn, ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Three 1. Central Government The most significant changes which have occurred during the past year at the central government level have been in the details of organization of the State Council, the operational focus of state power. The trend toward proliferation of specialized economic min- istries and agencies has continued, and the current (April 1957) Council now comprises the premier, 42 ministries, 7 commissioners, 16 bureaus, and 3 aencies attached to the Council (see Figure 3-1). SECRET I. of ?1,,,?,lina, Figure 3-1 COMPOSITION OF THE STATE COUNCIL OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: APRIL 1957 Premier 12 Vice-premiers (2 added, November 1956) Secretary General 7 Deputies Secretary General Assistant Secretary General Miaiatoul.911. Defense Foreign Affairs Supervision Interior Public Security 8 Staff Officers Staff of the Premier The Secretariat Consultaiion Staff Documents Office Justice Culture Education Higher Education Public Health Ministers of Financial-Economic Committee: Finance Foreign Trade Commerce Textile Industry Railways Communications Post and Telecommunications Fores:try Water Conservancy Labor Light Industry Grain Production Agriculture Food Production Industry (formed May 1956) Agricultural Land Reclamation (formed May 1956) Coal Industry Electric Power Industry Power Equipment (formed May 1956) Petroleum Procurement of Agricultural Supplies 144 LIELSECRET _Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 r; immimmwmiMMEMU Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Three Figure 3.11 (continued) Ministers of: First Machine Building Second Machine Building Third Machine Building (abolished May 1956; reconstituted November 1956) Construction Geology Metallurgical (formed May 1956) Chemical Industry (formed May 1956) Building Materials Industry (formed May 1956) Marine Product (formed May 1956) Timber Industry (formed May 1956) City Construction (upgraded from Bureau, May 1956) City Service (formed May 1956) Commissioners of Technological Commission (formed May 1956) National Economic Commission (formed May 1956) Overseas Chinese Affairs State Planning Commission Nationalities Affairs Physical Culture and Sport Commission National Construction Commission SECRET Bureaus of Commodity. Supplies (formed May 1956) Experts (formed May 1956) Foreign Experts (formed from Bureau of Expert Work, 1956) State Statistical Bureau Standard Handicraft Industry Control Civil Aeronautics Weather Bureau Commerce and Industrial Administrative Control Broadcasting Control Foreign Cultural Relations Religious Affairs Laws and Regulations State Council Personnel Conficlential Communications Departmental Affairs Control Agencies: New China Nes Service People's Bank of China Reform of the Written Chinese Language The evils of departmentalism inherent in a strict categorical approach to administration are already apparent, as agencies strive for more complete linear control over activities which support their own functions.? The? continued growth of the number of agencies sub- ordinate to the State Council must perforce result in an increase 145 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RnPRi_ninAwrInnAnnn ..... I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SE CR.ET Part Three I. ThtltgsaiBeoj121jc.9L_L_Ch'na in the role of the apparatus of the premier in order that adequate coordination if not control is exercised. Available data suggest that there has been no public dis- cussion of possible alternate solutions which include a simplifica- tion of the central apparatus through merger of complementary agen- cies or, more significantly, a transfer of authority over economic activities to the lower levels of government. Of the possible al- ternatives, it is felt that the merger approach will probably be tried before any attempt at decentralization. 2. Provincial Government There have been no significant changes in the functions, role, or organization of China's 23 provinces and 2 autonomous re- gions.1 The process of consolidation of the provinces, begun shortly after the establishment of The People's Republic 144 loqn .??, r uUCCLI 0 --r_ to have been completed and no significant changes in administrative boundaries have occurred since April 1956. It is felt that the status and geographic areas of the major administrative divisions of Communist China will remain fairly constant in the immediate future. 3. Local Government Developments at the local governmental level during the past year have been intimately connected with the progress of the co- operative farming movement. The authority of hsiang (township) governments has grown considerably as the farmlands within their territorial confines have been organized and reorganized into co- operative and collective farms. Earlier, their authority in agri- culture was limited largely to serving as channels for the trans- mission of orders from the provincial government to the thousands of individual peasant households which worked the land. At present they are at least indirectly responsible for the administration and plan fullfillment of the dozens of "unified" farms under their jurisdiction. 1A Preparatory Committee for Tibetan Autonomy was created in April 1955, but no formal grant of autonomy has been made as of this date. The theoretically special status of autonomous divisions in China (regions, chou, hsien, and hsiang) is largely limited to "titles" and they have functions and roles identical with their nonautonomous equivalents. 1146 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People's Republic of China Coincident with the growth in the authority of the township government there has been a great increase in their territorial jurisdiction. Their number has been reduced from more than 200,000 in 1955 to approximately 100,000 in 1957. This augmentation of the power and jurisdiction of local government has had two basic aims: 1) to destroy the remnants of the Pao-Chia or "village elder" system and 2) to make government units coincide territorially with the planned areas of the new collective farms. The Pao-Chia system is based on households, with 10 households equaling a chia; 20 chia, a pao; and 15 pao, a township. At each level the heads of house-f hol-ds, usually 'he senior male members of the family, are in author- ity. The system has been conservative in outlook and highly re- sistant to pressures from the outside, whether from war lords, the Nationalists, or the Communists. Initially the Communists attempted to govern the villages through the system by placing their own personnel at the township and pao levels. Failing this attemPil they are now trying to destroy the system in its entirety by re- placing the pao and chia with "people's congresses" and by alter- ing the apex through the amalgamation of townships* While the formal structure may change completely in the year ahead, the in- formal relationships established over centuries will probably con- tinue and will seriously inhibit the implementation of Communist control over Chinese agriculture. 1+. Government C9ntrol Centers The growth and distribution of major and alternate govern- ment control centers in The People's Republic of China accurately reflects the development and location of channels of Communist con- trol over the peoples of China "in general, the number-of major centers has decreased while the number of alternates has grown. These changes reflect the centralization of control over regions and the development of new industrial bases. The reduction in the number of major government control centers from 35 in 1947 under the Nationalist regime to 26 in 1957 (see Table 3-8 and Map V) is a direct result of the consolidation of provinces undertaken by the Communists shortly after their assump- tion of power. These major centers consist of the republic capital, Peking, and the capitals of the 23 provinces and 2 autonomous re- gions. Each of the provincial or regional capitals administers 1)+7 SECRET 1 NI...mm=1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People's Republic of China Table 3-8 SUMMARY OF MAJOR AND ALTERNATE GOVERNMENT CONTROL CENTERS OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: 1958a Administrative Division Number of Cities, Per Cent Change _IL-4. 1958 1947-58 Total 64 136 113 Major 35 26 Alternate 29 110 279 National Municipalities 11 3 =27 Anhwei 1 6 500 Major 1 1 Alternate ...... 5 Chekiang 1 7 Major 1 1 Alternate ...... 6 Fukien 2 Major 1 1 Alternate 1 3 200 Heilungkiang 4- 5 25 Major 4 1 -25 Alternate __ L. ........ Honan 1 12 Major 1 1 Alternate ...... 11 Hopeh 3 14 367 Major 2 2 Alternate 1 12 Hunan 2 9 Major 1 1 Alternate 1 8 700 Hupeh 1 5 14C? Major 1 1 Alternate ..... 4 Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region 3 2 -67 IMO 600 11111??0111111 600 100 1100 ??????110 VEM sm.. oar 1100 350 CIMINO CYO ova Major 2 Alternate 1 Kansu 2 Major 2 Alternate 1 50 1 7 250 1 -50 6 ???11,2?0 aMajor government control centers: cities containing agencies exercising direct control over large areas [e.g., provinces and autonomous regions]. Alternate government control centers: cities which contain agencies exercisingeontrol over lesser areas which could operate over a larger area if their counterparts in major centers were inoperative. For complete listing, see Table A-10, Appendix. 148 SECRET 1 1.11.11111111M111 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Three Table 3-8 (continued) SECRET I. The P,t2p1e's %public of China Administrative Number of Cities Per Cent Change Division 1947 - ....120 121-12:21_____ Kiangsi 1 6 500 Major 1 1 Alternate OM OM 5 . MO Kiangsu 2 7 260 Major 1 I Alternate 1 6 500 Kirin 5 5 Major 3 1 -33 Alternate 2 4 100 Kwangsi 4 14- Major 1 1 Alternate 3 3 Kwangtung 2 1 Major 1 1 A14.?.4... 1 --1- nLi..iliaLv Kweichow 1 1 Major 1 1 Alternate __ -- Liaoning 5 11 600 Major 1 1 -- Alternate 4 10 150 ShaRsi 1 5 400 Major 1 1 -- Alternate 1=1???3 4 MO OM Shantung 3 4 33 Major 1 1 -- Alternate 2 3 50 Shensi 1 4 300 Major 1 1 Alternate MIYMMI 3 ...... Sinkiang-Uighur Autonomous Region 1 2 100 Major 1 1 Alternate OM MN 1 Szwechwan 3 11 267 Major 2 1 -50 Alternate 1 10 900 Tibet Autonomous Region (Preparatory) 1 1 Major. 1 1 Alternate Tsinghai 1 1 Major 1 1 Alternate ?=1. PP .1 MI MN Yunnan 1 2 100 Major 1 1 Alternate OM. ???? 1 ??? NM% MEI API IMO IMO VIM -33 =WOW W1101.4110 =MOM .0101.M. .111??? NOM. ?11110 wit am 111101.1115 ???? 149 SECRET ens amo Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People's Republic: pf China areas ranging in size from 39,000 to 750,000 square miles with populations ranging from 1.4 million to 70.3 million. The 25 major centers and the 2 municipalities of national subordination, Shanghai and Tlien-Ching (Tientsin), could func- tion as alternates to Peking, the republic capitals Five of these cities, Cheng-tu, Kuang-chou (Canton), Lan-phou, Nan-ching, Shen- yang, and Wu-han, are regional army or air force headquarters which could direct some of the operations of the Chinese Communist mil- itary establishment if the national headquarters in Peking were inoperative. Seven cities, Kuang-chou, Shen-yang, Cheng-chou, Chi-nan, Ha-erh-pin, Shanghai, T'ien-ching,are regional headquarters of the Chinese railroad system, which is the only reliable all- weather means of transportation outside of the major rivers. Kuang-chou and Shen-yang are also military control centers. ? The number of alternate government control centers, cities of provincial and autonomous region subordination exclusive of the capitals, has increased from 29 to 110 since 1947. Most of this increase results directly from the development of new industrial and mining centers in the interior regions. The majority of secon- dary industrial centers, however, remain concentrated in such established industrial provinces as Hopeh, Liaoning, and Szechwan. Each of these cities contains agencies which could assume province- wide authority if their counterparts at the province capital were incapable of functioning. C. Political Economy , On 1 January 1958 the People's Republic of China will begin its Second Five-Year Plan which envisages a doubling of the gross national product. Thus will open the second stage of the long- term Chinese effort to solve China's desperate triangle of food, population, and forced industrial growth. China's burgeoning population will continue to press inexorably upon available food supplies, perpetuating the internal pressures which curb and circumscribe Peking's ambitious program of industrial expansion. 1. Agriculture Since 1949 China's population has grown from 540 million to an estimated 623 million (1958); and with each year it increases by an additional 10 million. Meanwhile, food production?although it too has grown--has failed to surpass the minimal requirements 15'0 SECRET 1 1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three Republic of for sustaining these millions and for investment in industrial construction. Already Communist leaders have revealed the critical nature of the problem by adopting drastic measures to increase supplies of food available to the state, to control rigidly the distribution of foodstuffs, and even to retard future population growth. Although competing demands for industrial investment have compelled the regime to maintain at low levels its investment in improving the conditions and techniques of agriculture, unceasing Communist pressures have led to the expansion of agriculture into marginal and submarginal farming areas. Corresponding pressures upon the peasant population to join cooperative and collective farms in which the state enforces a policy of "grain distribution first to the state and second to the cooperative members" have brought control of agricultural products firmly into the hands of the regime. And these practices have been accompanied since 1955 by a direct Communist effort to curb population growth by popular- izing and encouraging birth-control measures despite the fact that such measures run counter both to Marxist principles and to Chinese social mores. The foregoing policies have led to some increases in food production and to state seizure of "hidden" agricultural reserves, but the food shortage remains acute. Moreover, the regime's birth control measures have had no visible impact upon the pattern of population growth, nor are they likely to in the foreseeable future. While the government has carefully maintained the illusion of public well-being through the publication of apparently inflated statistics on crop production, the real consequence of Communist policy has been a steady decline in living standards in town and country and the delivery of a destructive blow to peasant initiative. 2. Industry An atmosphere of official optimism pervades the Communist approach to the problem of economic construction in the coming five-year plan, but serious obstacles still stand in the way of China's industrial growth. Despite the regime's plan to expend 60 per cent of the total national revenue on industry, and two-thirds of that on capital mnstruction, the country's industrial growth will continue to lag behind official expectations. Limited means 151 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-n1n4'IPnnoAnnnonnt-In Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People's Republic of China for capital investment, barriers to increases in industrial produc- tion, and the absence of trained manpower reserves will circOmscribe severely the Communist Party's ability to establish and sustain high levels of economic growth. Sources for capital investment have been limited largely to surpluses which could be drawn from agricultural production and to Soviet economic aid. Since these not only have remained at comparatively low levels throughout the period of the First Five- Year Plan but exhibit no ability to increase significantly in the near future, it cannot be expected that the pace of investment will quicken. The seriousness with which the regime regards this restric- tion is evidenced by the strenuous efforts of Communist leaders to encourage economy at every level of production and consumption in the country. There has been, in fact, a hint that the government might consider future foreign investment in China's economy in Chou En-lai's recent suggestion that China would be willing to develop "economic, technical, and cultural contacts" with non- Soviet countries. The problem of investment has been and will continue to be magnified by inefficient use of available resources. Largely, this is the consequence of Communist inexperience in planning, the absence of sufficient knowledge of internal economic conditions, and the effort to maximize the pace of industrialization at any cost. During the First Five-Year Plan, these factors led, among other things, to overinvestment in capital constructbn at the ex- pense of current production, to faulty allocation of scarce materials among industries, to breakdowns and bottlehecks in the distribution system, to irrational uses of available materials and to a general decline in the quality of goods produced. That these same problems will recur during the Second Fivp- Year Plan is a certainty. Indeed, many of them still afflict in- dustrial production in the USSR which boasts 30 years of experience in total economic planning. In China the problems are infinitely more serious. For one thing, the absence of a modern transporta- tion system has hindered and will continue to hinder the orderly exchange of goods and services on a nationwide scale. The rigid- ities of the bureaucratic system of economic administration, more- over, prevent easy adaptations by parts of the industrial machinery 152 SECRET NIMMIM1111 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The Peoples Republic of China to unexpected changes in local economic conditions. Of far greater significance, the Communist regime has eliminated the market as a controlling factor in economic production without replacing it with a reliable system of economic indices and barometers. And this factor has tended to obscure the perception by planners and managers of the realities of their economic situation and has often prevented them from acting rationally. Beyond this, the Communist shock calTipaign to create a modern economy in China continues to lag for lack of trained troops to ? man the industrial battlements, still remains a country with vast reserves of unskilled labor and acute shortages of experienced managerial personnel and skilled industrial workers. Many of the most striking instances of indus- trialwaste and inefficiency during the past several years can be traced directly to this source. To overcome this problem, the re- gime has introduced broad-scale programs to train cadres of man- agers, technicians, and skilled workers 'at every level of the ed- ucational system. But the training periods are by their nature lengthy; and several years will pass before their graduates enter the industrial area in etfective numbers. In the interim, the mistakes of managerial and technical inexperience will continue to hamper achievement of the regime's economic goals. 3. Consumer Industry and Trade It is characteristic of the Soviet type of economic adminis- tration to show little real interest in the development of light and consumer goods industries and in the organization of an efficient system of retail trade outlets during the initial period of planned industrial expansion. As have their counterparts in the Soviet Union during an earlier period, Communist China's economic planners have neglected and are continuing to neglect this area of economic activity. Inattention to the development of the light and con- sumer goods industries led to a sharp decline in the availability of consumer goods during the First Five-Year Plan. And-the state compounded the difficulty by interfering in the existing system of retail distribution. In the winter of 1955-56, the regime herded 90 per cent of the country's urban small producers into cooperatives and joint state-private enterprises. Originally Communist leaders bkad planned to complete the socialization of small traders and pro- ducers by 1957, but the deepening consumer goods crisis which followed L.G I VI IG five-year plan China 153 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDPRi-ninaqpnnoAnnrv-ww,r, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 SE C R,E T Part Three J. The People's Republic of ghina the original assault compelled them to postpone action until the end of the Second Five-Year Plan. The same kind of problems have plagued Communist policy in the rural areas. The collectivization of agriculture and the re- sulting state seizure of agricultural surpluses have forced rural incomes to new lows and have provided the impetus for a new migra- tion of destitute peasants to urban centers. To overcome the crisis and to reestablish the flow of consumer goods in rural China, the government began in 1956 to encourage "subsidiary" production (cottage industry) among the collectivized peasantry. The year 1957 thus witnessed a rapid rise in the number of smal producers and traders on the countryside, a trend which is destined to con- tinue well into the period of the Second Five-Year Plan. D. Population and Manpower 1. Size The crucial population problem is one of many that face the Chinese Communists. For centuries the balance between food supply and population in China has been a fine one, and seldom has a year passed without famine in some area. Nevertheless, each year the population increases by ten million, and now totals an estimated 623 million (1958). The Communists have been slow to admit the problem and until recently the official line, in effect, stated that China is a country of vast new lands and unexploited natural resources where the rate of production is increasing more rapidly than the population. Now, although the problem is admitted it remains veiled in Communist gobbledygook. A birth-control program has been initiated, attempts are being made to cultivate previously unused lands, and people are being resettled in areas where a better balance exists between food production and population. It is ques- tionable, however, whether the regime can adequately provide for the rapid population growth through these reforms. It is also doubtful whether the Chinese economy can develop rapidly enough to provide employment for so many new hands when unemployment and underemployment admittedly prevail in both the urban and rural seg- ments of the population. It is estimated that by 1 January 1958 the population of the Chinese People's Republic will total 623 million (see Table 3-9). A projection of the 1953 Census figure of 582.6 million, 154 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People's Republic of China the 1958 estimate contradicts the 2 per cent rate of natural in- crease reported in the Census but is supported by a figure pub- lished in 1956 which indicates that the annual rate of population increase in China has averaged 1.5 per cent since the Census. Based on the latter rate, it is estimated that by 1962 China's population will have increased 38 million over the 1958 figure and will total 661.2 million. This estimate is probably conserva- tive, since an anticipated drop in the current mortality rate will probably be coupled with a continuing high birth rate. Table 3-9 ESTIMATED TOTAL POPULATION OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: 1953, 1958-62 Year 1953a 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 Population millionsl 582.6 623.0 632.3 641.8 651.4 661.2 aOfficial census figure. 2. Migration For several years the Chinese Communists have been engaged in a program of resettlement to increase food production through reclamation of waste lands and to relieve the pressure of surplus population in the densely populated regions of central and coastal China. Migrants have been drawn chiefly from the provinces of Shantung, Honan, Hopeh, and Kiangsu and from several of the larger cities such as Shanghai, Tientsin, Peking and Canton. The majn regions of the new settlement are within Heilungkiang, Tsinghai, Kansu, and Inner Mongolia. Although the mainland press has devoted considerable space to this program and the general volume of the movement is apparent, it is not possible to determine the distribution of the migrants between the provinces of departure and settlement. The time ele- ment is often vague, and data are generally presented for groups 155 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R00240no7nnnp_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People's Republic of China of provinces in such a way that there is no possibility of extract- ing figures for a particular province. A Chinese report states that in 1956, the first year of organized migration, more than 725,000 persons migrated to new areas and that this number exceeds the total number of migrants between 1949 and 1955. On the basis of this statement, 1.4 million migrants since 1949 would be a reasonable estimate. Assuming, for illustrative purposes, that the transfer of population took place between the eight provinces mentioned as principal participants, the 1:4 million constituted 1+.3 per cent of the population of the four provinces of in-migration but only 0.8 per cent of the popula- tion of the four provinces of departure. The significance is ob- vious: although migration could substantially alter the relative size of the population and modify the economic life of the sparsely settled areas of in-migration, a minimal rate of natural increase would more than compensate for the migratory losses. The migrants may be roughly divided into three groups. The first and the largest are the peasants, who usually migrate by households. In the spring of 1956, for example, 143,698 rural families moved into Heilunekiang to cultivate new lands. Another large group consists of young volunteers who come from both urban and rural areas. For example, 90 per cent of the 40,000 persons who recently arrived in Sinkiang were between the ages of 18 and 25. The third group consists of urban unemployed, vagrants, and small groups of specialists, who provide labor for projects in the isolated regions. The future rate of migration will probably be greater than in 1956, for the Chinese government estimates that China has 250 million acres of wasteland and that one-third of this can be re- claimed during the course of several five-year plans. Assuming that this reclaimed land will be settled as densely as China as a whole, it would provide a living for some 22 million persons. This would involve a tremendous migratory movement but would result in the resettlement of a number equivalent only to the nations natural increase over a two-year period. 3. Distribution The 1958 estimated provincial distribution of the Chinese population (see Table 3-10) is a projection of data reported in the 156 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R0024nnn2nnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 ? SECRET Part Three I. The People's RepuJDlic of China Table 3-10 I PROVINCIAL AND REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: 1958a Population Province and Region (in millions) Northeast I Heilungkiang 12.7 North Northwest Shansi Hopeh Total .44a_ 46.2 61.5 Kirin 12.1 Liaoning 22._5 Total 47.3 Kansu 1.8. Shensi 17.0 Sinkiang-Uighur Autonomous Region 5.2 Tsinghai Total East Anhwei Chekiang Fukien Kiangsu Shantung 1.8 37.8 32.4 24.5 14.1 50.7 2 Total 1 0 Central South Honan 1+7,3 Hunan 35.5 Hupeh 29.7 Kiangsi 17.9 Kwangsi 19.0 Kwangtung Total 188.5 Southwest Kweichow 16.1 Szechwan 70.2 Yunnan 18.7 Total 105.0 Other Areas IMAR 7.5 Tibet (incl. Chang-tu area) 1.1+ Total 3.9 GRAND TOTAL 621,12 aProvinces grouped according to former ad- ministrative areas, abolished by the Chinese Com- munists in 1953 but still used in describing eco- nomic regions. 157 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 ? Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People's Republic of China 1953 Census. Although the latest boundary adjustments have been made, it has not been possible to allow for population changes as a result of migratory shifts. Even if it were possible, however, to estimate the variations by province, the changes would hardly be significant. In the province of Heilungkiang, for example, which received the largest share of the in-migrants, the total population has reportedly increased only two per cent as a result of the arrival of the settlers; and in the provinces of out-migration, such adjustments would account for only a fraction of one per cent. 4. Urban Population Development. China is an agrarian country, with a 1958 estimated urban population of only 85 million, or 13.6 per cent of the total population (see Table 3-11). This estimate Table 3-11 ESTIMATED GROWTH OF URBAN POPULATION IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: 19rd 53, 1958-62 Urban Per Cent Population of Total Year 1953a (in millions). Poyulation 1-71-7 p 13.3 ((.3 1958 1959 85.0 13.6 86.7 13.7 1960 88.5 13.8 1961 90.8 13.9 1962 93.2 14.1 aCensus figure. Communist sources do not define clearly the urban area; this may explain the lower census total for the urban population over previously estimated totals. is based on a projection of the urban population reported in the 1953 Census, made under two basic assumptions: 1) that the annual rate of natural increase is 1.5 per cent for both total and urban populations; and 2) that rural-to-urban migration will average one million between 1960 and 1965. Thus, by 1962, it is estimated that the urban population will total 93.2 million and will constitute 14.1 per cent of China's total population. 158 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Part Three I. The People's Republic of China Since in the West, industrialization and urbanization gen- erally go hand in hand, it may seem surprising to find such a slow rate of urban growth in China. However, several compensatory fac- tors tend to produce a minimal growth. Factors tending to increase the size of the urban population in China are 1) industrialization, with an accompanying influx of rural in-migrants to the cities; 2) the building of new industrial towns in the interior of the country; and 3) natural increase of the urban population. Factors contributing to a decrease of the urban population or hindering its growth are 1) government restrictions on urban in migration; 2) government efforts to return peasants to the land and the movement of urban population into new areas of agricultural development; 3) shortages of skilled labor, capital investment, and equipment; and LO the existing urban unemployment which has to be absorbed by the economy. After a decade or so, with the absorption of the urban unemployed and an increasing number of skilled personnel and continued industrial growth, the rate of growth of the urban popula- tion will accelerate. Provincial Distribution. The size of the urban population of China and its provincial distribution have remained relatively stable since the turn of the century. The greatest change occurred as a result of the industrialization of Manchuria, where a number of cities experienced sizable increases in popula- tion during the 1920s and 1930s. This growth in the northeastern provinces has continued under the Communists, and therefore the three Manchurian provinces of Liaoning, Heilungkiang, and Kirin constitute the most highly urbanized region of China (see Table 3-12). The new policy to develop the national economy will probably result in a modest redistribution of urban population. The Second Five-Year Plan calls for the construction of new industrial bases in the inland areas "according to the principle of location of natural resources and sensible distribution of productivity," whigh indicates that provinces in the western part of China will receive disproportionate amounts of capital for economic expansion and urban growth. it is too early to quantify the results of these plans, however, to the extent of making adjustments in provincial distribu- tions of the urban populations. 159 SECRET IL. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Part Three Table 3-12 0 CC ? ? Province SECRET aD ? 6 6 CO ON et o0 S ? 0 rr) (Ni I. The People's Republic of China 160 ? 6 0 0 \ CO 0 \ CO coo' ai * ? ? ? Cr) tr q) 6 ? 11--N 0 T? r- r- co _C 0 SECRET CO \O ? I 0 ? 0 00 ,t 0N00 al 0 ? ? 0 IrN cr) \D ocOcODcO 0 cr),-t ?O? 00 al al 1.r\.4. r.r.) cO 0 0000 r\ C0 re) r- r- \O c)C) C\I 60000 1-- Cr) r'". OD cta on D C ?-4MC(.00 On-4-1 C C ai U) E (D a 6 CD (T) (/) (D Table A-14- (continued) Administrative Divisiona Ukrainskaya SSR (continued) Sumskaya 0 Ternopolskaya 0 Vinnitskaya 0 Volynskaya 0 Voroshilovgradskaya 0 Zakarpatskaya 0 Zaporozhskaya 0 Zhitomirskaya 0 Belorusskaya SSR Brestskaya 0 Gomelskaya? 0 Grodnenskaya 0 Minskaya 0 Mogi levskaya 0 Molodechnenskaya 0 Vitebskaya 0 Uzbekskaya SSR Andizhanskaya 0 Bukharskaya 0 Ferganskaya 0 Kara-Ka lpakskaya ASSR Kashka-Darynskaya 0 111111111M1111111111111111?1 --1232/4ob Population (in thousands) (1,706) (11504) (21288) (11-c98) (1 837) ?eloo) (11389) (1,692) 912+9 (1,3)+5) (1,542) (11125) (1,579) (11339) (11038) (17281) 61333_ (653) 0+81) (778) ? (454) (460) (11527) (1,085) (2,137) (874) (2,171) (920) (1,373) ,5714-) 7,909 (1,310) (9)+8) (1,600) (1,123) (847) (899) 7,172 (700) (517) (9+7) (1+32) July 1955c 1 Jan 1958d (17538) (1,110) (2,173) (935) (2,355) (957) (11452) (11630) 8-14-2 (1,212) (1734-2) (96)+) (1,698) (1,14c) (865) (921) 7 571+ Z731) (552) (891) (404) (456) ? Average Annual Rate of Growth (in per cent) 71-940-55 195- -0.0+ 0.28 -1.69 0.92 -0.40 0.68 -1.24- 2.80 1.10 3.140 0.91 1.60 -0,07 2.32 -0.42 1.44 -0.88 1.16 -0.73 1.00 -0.91 0.96 -0.96 0.68 0.08. 2.41+ -0.98 0.60 -1.12 0.9+ 1.81 0.96 0.80 2.24 0.44 1.76 0.45 2.72 0.53 2.08 -0.30 2.96 3.00. ? APPENDIX pOWSSepea Copy Approved for Release 6000Z00017Z001?1701-0 Table A-14 (continued) Administrative Divisiona Uzbekskaya SSR (continued) Khorezmskaya 0 Namanganskaya 0 Samarkandskaya 0 Surkhan-Darynskaya 0 Tashkentskaya 0 Kazakhskayia_221 Akmolinskaya 0 Aktyubinskaya 0 Alma-Atinskaya 0 Dzhambulskaya 0 Guryevskaya 0 Karagandinskqya 0 Kokchetavskaya 0 -Kustanayskaya 0 Kzyl-Ordinskaya 0 Pavlodarskaya 0 Semipalatinskaya 0 Severo-Kazakhstanskaya 0 Taldy-Kurganskaya 0 Vostochno-Kazakhstanskaya 0 Yuzhno-Kazakhstanskaya 0 Zapadno-Kazakhstanskaya 0 (3)44) (521) (1,022) (315) (1,305) 6e417 (338) (481) (355) (287) (403) (331) (372) (328) (249) (381) (363) (317) (537) (6)+9) (380) 0 Population in thousands July 1955c 1 Jan 1958d (376) (401) (532) (555) 7 (1,028) (1,070) (310 (3214) (11976) (2,080) 8,121 8.907 (535) (651) (371) (391) (V54) (819) (508) (547) (271+) * (279) (847) (924) (409) (WA) (541) (667) (306) (309) (401) (504) (436) (472) (422) (Y16) (440) (472) (689) (722) (846) (867) (342) (363) Average ? Annual Rate of Growth Ma:a 135.25.1 0.58 2.61+ 0.13 1.72 0.04 1.64 0.47 -4.00 3.12 2.12 2.02 3.88 3.99 8.68 0.59 2.16 3.144 3)44 2.62 3.08 -0.28 0.72 0.62 3.614- 1.43 6.36 2.75 9.32 -0.1440 3.69 10.28 0.88 3.32 0.98 2.28 2.36 2.92 1.72 1.92 1.83 1.00 ? -0.61 2.44 APPENDIX ? 0 0.) n.) n.) ? Table A-4 (continued) Administrative Division a Gruzinskaya SSR Gruzinskaya Proper Abkhazskaya ASSR Adzharskaya ASSR Az2.02ydzhanskaya ,SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya Proper Nakhichevanskaya ASSR Litovskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR Latviyskaya SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Dzhalal-Abadskaya 0 Frunzenskaya 0 Issyk-Kulskaya 0 Oshskaya 0 Tyan-Shanskaya 0 Tadzhikskaya SSR 1939/401') Ti4,56Z73-59 (312) (200) 3,206 2,925 2,500 _LOCI+ 1,1+58 (258 04.85) (174) (417) (121+) 1.1+ Population (in thousands) July 1 _1601- (3,311) (369) (240) _3_121.1 (3,18LTT (127) 2,650 2,940 1,880 (276) (787) (219) (482) (116) 1,740 1 Jan 195.8cl, o (449) (238) 3q,f3 (3,411) (132) 2,704 2,749 2,039 _1_122L_ t28144- (849) (24) (509) (120) 1,860 Average Annual Rate of Growth (in per cent) 1940-55 1 0.59 0.52 1.18 1.29 0.20 -0.57 0.34 0:40 1.76 0:43 3.78 1.56 0.95 0.41 1-01+ 1.36 0.68 8.68 -0.32 2.80 2.84 1.56 0.80 1.64 0.16 2.48 1.16 3.16 2.72 2.24 1.36 2.76 APPENDIX L/80/2 I-0Z LZ/80/? I- OZ JA CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 CT) P1 P1 Table A-4 (continued) Administrative Divisiona Population (in thousands) 1939/401? July 1 in per 1 Jan 1958d ? 1040-55 Tadzhikskaya SSR (continued) Gorno-Badakhshanskaya A..0. (69) (60) (67) Leninabadskaya 0 (523) (588) (622) Cities and Rayons of Republic Subordination (892) (1,092) (1,171) Armyanskaya SSR 1 282 ....1i5.2.0_ 1 688 Turkmenskaya SSR 1 _1331_1J.0 Ashkhabadskaya 0 @% 0+77 (511) Chardzhouskaya 0 (266) (295) (307) Maryyskaya 0 (290) (308) (319) Tashauzskaya 0 (249) (261) (266) Estonskaya _SSR 11052 11*0 11139 -0.18 0.76 1.35 1.45 0.42 0:39 0.66 0.38 0.28 0.33 cent) j.915-58 4-.68 2.32 2.88 2.48 1.88 2.96 1.64 1)44 0.76 -0.04 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Table A-5 REDISTRIBUTION OF USSR POPULATION WITHIN UNOCCUPIED AREA: 1939-55 (Net Increment or Decrement) Region and Administrative Division North_an?yeste ion RSFSR Arkhangelskaya 0. Komi ASSR Vologodskaya 0. g21192.28RIAREIDI RSFSR Dagestanskaya ASSR 12110412812n RSFSR Kuybyshevskaya O. Kuybyshev City Remainder Oblast Saratovskaya 0 Saratov City Remainder Oblast Tatarskaya ASSR Ulyanovskaya 00 Central Region RSFSR Arzamaskaya O. Balashovskaya 6. Chuvashskaya ASSR Gorkavskaya 00 Gorki,y City Remainder Oblast Ivanavskaya O. Kirovskaya O. Kostromskaya 0. Mariyskaya ASSR Mordovskaya ASSR Penzenskaya O. Tambovskaya Oe Vladimirskaya O. Yaroslavskaya 0. Urals Region RSFSR Bashkirskaya ASSR Cheliyabinskaya 00 Chelyabinsk City Remainder Oblast Chkalovskaya 00 247 SECRET APPENDIX In Absolute ln Per-Cent Figures of Total - 4.72 - 459380 - 0080 2789417 4093 -4999402 - 8085 22.12 7 5021 ?2939912 -, 5021 ?7489096 ?13.25 3199045 5.65 (3089612) (5047) ( 109433) (0.18) ?3649193 _ 6045 ( 969065) (1070) (-4609258) (- 8015) -5019250 - 8.88 ?2019698 ? 3057 -3-la.a.1-L -69043 14409831 - 7081 -3119447 - 5052 -1219003 - 2014 - 817 - 0001 ( 1499782) (2065) (-1509599) (- 2066) 2269282 ? 4001 ?7129127 ?12.62 ?2859611 ? 5.06 ? 139672 ? 0.24 ?3369174 ? 5.96 -3469777 - 6014 -5489190 - 9071 -1529765 . 2071 -439469 - 7050 w24-45110. 2122.2_ -3629466 - 6042 7819697 13086 ( 3009601) (5033) ( 4819096) (8052) -1099100 - 1093 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 4 Table A:2'Lcao.L....it,inued.) SECRET 'legion and AdministratiyIejAvision gra3....datgio (continued) Molotovskaya 0. Molotov City Remainder Oblast Sverdlovskaya 00 Sverdlovsk City Remainder Oblast Udmurtskaya ASSR htLailtEllaitga RSFSR Altayskiy Kray Kemerovskaya 0. Kurganskaya 00 Novosibirskaya O. Novosibirsk City Remainder Oblast Omskaya O. Omsk City Remainder Oblast Tomskaya Oe TyumenSkaya 00 Eat.glatElanItga RSFSR Buryat-Mongolskaya ASSR Chitinskaya 00 Irkutskaya 00 Krasnoyarskiy Kray Krasnoyarsk City Remainder gray Tuvinskaya A00. Yakutskaya ASSR Ear.kaIltglan RSFSR Amurskaya 0. Kamchatskaya O. Khabaravski7 Kray Magadanskaya 00 Primorskiy Kray Sakhalinskaya 00 Transcaucasus Region 'Armyanskaya SSR Azerbaydzhanskaya SSR Gruzinskaya SSR Kazakhstan and Central Asia Kazakhskaya SSR 21+8 SECRET In Absolute -11E0P. 500,545 ( 2489008) ( 252,537) 738,541 ( 2309762) ( 5079779) - 939789 A79.058 -1769034 717,468 -128,521 729616 ( 2799203) (-206,587) 149801 ( 1809909) (-1669108) 169622 - 37,594 4.222B1 24,746 - 85,452 249,382 222,006 ( 1099107) ( 112,899) 65,651 149495 2-125-2.9a2 19,353 759978 377,655 38,259 282,253 566,251 154,700 -278,642 - 76,355 12.6.216.2 1,297,750 APPENDIX In Per Cent of Total 8087 (4039) (4047) 13008 (4009) (9000) - 1066 112 . 3012 12072 - 2028 1029 (4095) ("i 3066) 0026 (3020) (- 2094) 0029 . 0067 822 044 - 1051 4042 3093 (1093) (2000) 1016 0026 24009 034 1035 6069 068 5000 10003 2074 - 4094 - 1035 2808 22.98 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Table A-5 (continued) Kazakhstanskaya SSR (continued Alma-Atinskaya O. Akmolinskaya O. Aktyubinskaya 0. Vostochno-Kazakhstanskaya 00 Guryevskaya O. Dzhambulskaya 0. Zapadno-Kazakhstanskaya 0? 0 Karagandinskaya 0. ? lzyl-Ordinskaya 00 Kokchetavskaya O. Kustanayskaya O. Pavlodarskaya O. Severo-Kazakhstanskaya O. Semipalatinskaya 0. Taldy-Kurganakaya 00 Yuzhno-Kazakhstanskaya O. Central Asia Uzbekskaya SSR Andizhanskaya O. Bukharskaya 0. Kashka-Darinskaya O. Namanganskaya O. Samarkandskaya O. Surkhan-Darinskaya O. Tashkentskaya O. Ferganskaya 00 Khoremskaya 00 Kara-Kalpakskaya ASSR Kirgizsksya SSR Dzhalal-Abadskaya O. Issyk-Kulskaya 0. Oshskaya O. Tyan-Shanskaya O. Frunzenskaya 00 Tadzhikskaya SSR Leninabadskaya O. Rayons of Republic Subordination Gorno-Badakhshanskaya A.O. Turkmenskaya SSR Ashkhabadskaya 0. Maryyskaya O. Tashau5skaya O. Chardzhouskaya O. Total 249 SECRET In Absolute .11E112. ( 215,269) ( 1730874) (- 7,640) ( 870560) (- 47,565) ( 1100760) (- 00618) (396,284) (- 600999) ( 380656) ( 124,259) ( 121,884) ( 150350) ( 10,062) ( 85,257) ( 118,357) 24191?..9. 80,625 ?(- 30,889) (- 21,689) (- 90,921) (- 51,193) (-116,381) (- 13,042) ( 515,043) (- 25,038) (. 80573) (- 760692) 247,965 (- 12,472) (? R30910) ( 150691) (- 230197) ( 244,033) 78,254 ( 20955) ( 920573) (- 17,274) - 62,124 (- 24,217) (- 16,747) (- 180377) (- 2,783) _ +5,644,659 -50644,659 APPENDIX In Per Cent of Total ( 38l) ( 1908) (- 0014) ( 1055) (- 0084) ( 1096) (- 1048) ( 7002) (-I 1008) ( 0068) ?( 2020) ( 2016) ( 0027) ( 0018) ( 1051) ( 2010) f2.2.12, 1043 (- 0055) (- 00,8) (- 1061) (- 00?1) (- 0043) ( 901?) (- 0044). (- 0015) (- LINO 4039 (r 0022) ( 0042) ( 008) (- 0041) ( 4032) 1.38 0005) ( 1064) (- 0031) - 1010 (- 0042) (- 0030 (- 0033) 0.05) +100.00 -100.00 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Table A-6 ESTIMATED URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF USSR POPULATION BY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION: 1958 (Numbers in thousands) Administrative Divisiona USSR RSFSR Northern Region Arkhangelskaya O. Kaliningradskaya 00 Karelskaya ASSR Ko* ASSR Leningradskaya O. Murmanskaya 00 Vologodskaya 00 Central Industrial Region Arzamasskaya 00 Balashovskaya 00 Belgorodskaya 00 Bryanskaya 00 Chuvashskaya ASSR Gorkovskaya 00 Ivanovskaya O. Kalininskaya O. Kaluzhskaya 00 Kiravskaya O. Kostromskaya 0. Kurskaya 00 Lipetskaya 00 Mariyskaya ASSR MordovskAva ASSR Moskovskaya 00 Novgorodskaya 00 Orlovskaya O. Penzenskaya 00 Pskovskaya O. Ryazanskaya O. Smolenskaya 0. Tambovskaya 00 Tulskaya 00 Velikolukskaya 00 Vladimirskaya 0. Voronezhskaya 0. APPENDIX Per Cent Urban Total Urban Rural of Total ?..2ftLE3 224222 112122 116.761 64,826, 120,2 2,02 .61442 1,232 574 658 638 403 235 627 341 286 753 369 384 4,456 3009 597 523 474 49 1,303 420 883 ALE 0067 67.56 46059 63.17 54.039 49.00 86.60 90.63 32.23 45.470 20 206 25.264 4111.44 1,086 199 887 18.32 978 227 751 23.21 19208 141 19067 11.67 19586 498 1,088 31.40 1,122 234 888 20.86 2,436 1,541 895 63.26 1,607 667 494 63.46 940 41.51 1,352 858 916 n1 605 33.95 1,956 620 1,336 31.70 902 17 585 35014 1,501 264 1,237 17059 1,156 274 882 23.70 660 158 502 23.94 885 13049 1,023 138 11,195 8,611 2,584 76.92 726 260 466 35.81 934 1/9 755 19.16 1,545 48 1,107 28.35 570 123 447 21.58 1,430 317 1,113 22.17 1,184 338 846 28.55 1,03 368 1,165 24.01 1,518 868 650 57.18 667 173 494 25.94 1,370 719 651 52.48 1,934 603 1,331 31.18 &The following abbreviations are used: SSR, Soviet Socialist Republic; 00, Oblast; AO, Autonomous Oblast; ASSR? Autonomous Soviet Socialist lievublic; K., Kray. 250 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-6 continued) Administrative Divisiona Yaroslavskaya 00 Vo1g Ron Astrakhanskaya 00 Kuybyshevskaya 00 Saratovskaya Oo Stalingradskaya Oo Tatarskaya ASSR Ulyanovskaya Oo algksElasniadaa Dagestanskaya ASSR Checheno-Ingushskaya ASSR Kabardino-Balkarskaya ASSR Kamenskaya 00 Krasnodarskiy K. North Osetinskaya ASSR Rostovskaya 00 Stavropolskiy X0 SECRET Total 19375 j1.22 675 29275 19762 1,460 2,831 19132 ..11192. 986 659 Urban Rural 762 613 441.4.2 354 321 1,318 957 954 808 827 633 19045 19786 342 790 A,221 7,116 291 695 331 328 APPRUIRC Per Cent Urbaft ;of Total Urals Region Bashkirskaya ASSR Chelyabinskaya 00 Chkalovskaya 00 Molotovskaya 00 Sverdlovskaya 00 Udmurtskaya ASSR 390 1,387 3,642 430 1,979 2,034 16 220 3,340 2,897 1,799 2,990 3,879 1,315 155 235 665 722 1,098 29544 238 192 1,047 932 566 19468 2.011 2a111 1,169 2,171 2,151 746 734 19065 1,648 1,342 29883 996 518 797 WestSilanReion Altayskiy Ko Kemerovskaya 00 Kurganskaya Oa Novosibirskaya Co Omskaya 00 Tomskaya 00 Tyumenskaya O. 1244 29774 2,758 19025 2,326 19689 784 1,125 _L552 ,61211 766 2,008 29007 751 292 733 1,166 1,160 664 1,025 334 450 321 804 East Siberian Rvion Buryat-Mongolskaya ASSR Chitinskaya 00 Irkutskaya 00 Krasnoyarskiy K. Tuvinskaya AO Yakutskaya ASSR 683 1,046 19869 2,606 180 497 92119 2Aga 265 418 549 497 1,044 825 1,101 1,505 49 131 211 286 atir.lutatalitgLon. Araurskaya 00 105. 753 2,2221. /.4122 423 330 55042 ? 47076 52.44 57093 54014 56.64 36091 30.21 X3016 29.51 50023 39074 47095 30015 55035 52091 27083 56012 35.00 74.25 40080 55012 74.32 39039 ,44.2.AZ 27061 72077 28.49 50013 39031 42.60 28053 46078 38080 52049 55086 42025 27022 42.45 55.18 251 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy proved for Release @50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET AppiNnTY MONIIIME.1011111111111?1110MMINIMI Table.A-6 continued) Administrative Divisiona Total Urban Rural Per Oeht Urban of Total Kamchatskaya O. Khabarovs4iy K. Magadanskaya O. Primorskiy K. Sakhalinskaya 00 YhEalaA:5ATAIR Cherkasskaya 00 Chernigovskaya 00 Chernovitskaya O. ? Dnepropetrovskaya O. Drogobychskaya O. Kharkovskaya 00 Khersonskaya O. Khmelnitskaya O. Kirovogradskaya 00 Ki,yevikaya O. Krymskaya 0. Lvovskaya O. Nikolayevskaya 00 Odesskaya O. Poltlivskaya 00 Rovenskaya 00 Stalinskaya 00 Stanislavskaya O. Sumskaya O. Ternopolskaya O. Vinnitskaya 00 Volynskaya 00 Voroshilovgradskaya O. Zakarpatskaya O. Zaporozhskaya 00 Zhitomirskaya O. 236 138 1,201 862 nrn 1?8 417 1,371 715 543 gal li152/ 19510 264 19592 297 789 192 2,549 19569 865 209 29481 19429 844 251 1,663 216 19231 307 2,752 19297 19161 690 1,274 539 19016 323 2,001 846 1,646 390 954 127 4,128 39402 19127 250 1,538 364 1,110 127 2,173 274 935 185 29355 1,739 957 225 1,452 715 1,630 346 98 339 61 458 172 R21.162 19246 1,295 597 980 656 1,052 593 1,447 924 19455 471 735 693 1,155 1,256 827 726 877 1,174 983 1,899 750 616 732 737 19284 58.47 71077 76.45 66.59 75.94 22.011 17.48 18.66 24.33 61.55 24,1e 57.60 29.74 12.99 24.94 4701:3 59043 42031 31.79 42.28 23069 33031 82.41 22018 23.67 11.44 12.61 19079 73084 23.51 49024 21.23 ? Belorusskaya SSR Bretskaya O. Gamelskaya 00 Grodnen6kaya Oct Minskaya O. Mogilevskaya 00 Molodechnenskaya O. Vitebskaya O. 241q. 19212 248 1,342 346 964 185 1,698 640 1,140 338 865 84 921 303 5.298 964 996 779 1,058 802 781 618 EgEllgAKIIR Andizhanskaya 00 Bukharskaya 00 Ferganskaya O. Kara-Kalpakskaya ASSR Kashka-Darynskaya O. Khorezmskaya O. 7121 2a2.62 731 ?160 552 112 891 259 464 120 456 63 401 54 522; 571 440 632 344 393 347 ?La 20046 25.78 19.19 37069 29065 9071 32090 1020 21.89 20.29 29007 25.86 13.82 13047 252 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-0104:1Rnn94nnno nrman Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Table A-6 continued Administrative Division& Namanganskaya 0. Samarkandskaya Oa Surkhan-Darynskaya 00 Tashkentskaya Oa Total Urban .4mmakhgan.?11. Akmolinskaya Oa Aktyubinskaya Oa Alma-Atinskaya 00 Dzhambulskaya 00 East Kazakhstanskaya Oa Guryevskaya 00 Karagandinskaya Oa Kokchetavskaya 00 Kustanayskaya Oa Kzyl-Ordinskaya Oa North Kazakhstanskaya 00 Pavlodarskaya Oa Semipalatinskaya Oa South Kazakhstanskaya 00 Taldy-Kurganskaya 00 West Kazakhstanskaya Oa Gruzinskaya_SSR Gruzinskaya Proper Abkhazskaya ASSR Adzharskaya ASSR AREtlEgAgENMIE Azerbaydzhanskaya Proper Nakhichevanskaya ASSR Litovskaya SSR Moldavskaya SSR IgIaAqa SSR Kirgizskaya SSR Dzhal-Abadskaya Oa Frunzenskaya Oa Issyk-Kulskaya Oa Oshskaya Oa Tyan-Shanskaya Oa Tadzhikska a SSR Gorno-Badakhshanskaya 00 Leninabadskaya Oa Cities and Rayons of Republic Subordination 555 133 1,070 284 374 56 2,080 1,122 8,907 651 247 391 164 819 379 547 183 722 381 279 156 c24 711 474 118 667 128 309 134 446 145 504 119 472 210 867 300 472 149 363 101 49055 1.575 3,368 19314 449 162 238 99 .12.618 3,411 1,653 132 34 Zak 22 2.749 2.039 1202. 4?6 618 284 80 849 318 234 55 509 150 120 15 L860 i9.1 67 9 622 225 1,171 357 253 Rural 422 786 318 958 5028.3 404 227 440 364 341 123 213 356 539 175 301 385 262 567 323 A.. APPENDIX Per Cent Urban of Total 23.96 26.54 14097 53094 40062 37094 41094 46.28 33.46 52.77 55.91 76.95 24.89 19.19 43037 32.51 23.61 44049 34.60 31.57 27.82 a.480 2,054 287 139 38.84 39.01 36.08 41.60 laglk 1,758 98 1802 2203. 12378 204 531 179 359 105 ALLP2 48046 25.76 22211 19.86 51050 28.17 37.46 23.50 29.47 12.50 1,269 58 397 814 (21 13043 36.17 3049 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 1 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-6 continued) Administrative Divisiona ArmyaflS1ca SSR Turkmenskaya SSR Ashkabadskaya 0. Chardzhouskaya 00 Maryyskaya 0. Tashituskaya'00 ggIssgimffa SECRET Total 1 688 511 307 319 266 1.1,39 APPENDIX Per Cent Urban Urban Rural of Total 22g Lk. 347 114 112 63 44079 67 4,033 1 4 67.91 37.13 35011 23.68 193 207 203 254 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Table A-7 POPULATION OUTSIDE MAJOR URBAN AREAS OF THE VSSR, BY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION; 1958 Administrative Divisiona Total USSR Russian SFSR Northwestern Rtgion Arkhangelskaya O. Kalinineadskaya O. KarelskaYa ASSR Komi ASSR Leningradskaya O. Murmanskaya O. Vologodskaya 0. Total Poplationb Land Area in Thousands) (Sq. Miles) Arzamaskaya O. Balashovskaya 0. Belgorodskaya O. Bryanskaya O. Chuvashskaya ASSR Gorkovskaya 0. Ivanovskaya Q. Kalininskaya 0. Kaluzhskaya 00 Kirovskaya O. Kostromskaya O. Kurskaya O. Lipetskaya O. Marilyskaya ASSR Mordovskaya ASSR Moskovskaya O. Navgorodskaya O. Orlotskaya O. Penzenskaya O. Pskovskaya O. Ryazanskaya O. Smolenskaya O. Tambovskaya O. Tulskaya O. 42161 2.6621, 856 257 488 637 685 173 1, 981 810 1,133 1,286 963 1,251 778 1,123 788 1,700 662 1,312 965 925 4,225 599 80 1,251 500 1,265 937 1,191 1,133 APPENDIX Pernorm MaRtlialt _____ 2 229,361 4-7 6,099 42 044901 7 JA;1716 4 52,849 21 53,693 3 56,896 18 416.02 a 10,499 93 14,707 55 10,654 106 13,394 96 7,064 136 17,756 70 9,496 82 25,476 44 11,502 69 46,938 36 22,388 30 11,773 111 9,187 105 8,917 66 10,07 92 18,682 226 20,728 29 9,380 $6 140714 ?75 12,236 41. 15,247 83 18,t4 50 12,584 95 9,303 122 ETEII;;44 abbreviations are used: SSR4 Soviet Sociaist Republic; O. nblastv.A.O., Autonomous Oblast; ASSR, Autonomous Soviet SociaLt Republic; N.O. National Okrug; Ki, Kray. 'ARD Estimates of the legally resident population. 25'5 SECRET Declassified in Part- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A- ontinued APPENDIX Total PopulationP, Land Area Per Administrative Divisiona (in Thousang0 (494.112,0 4ELNA412 RSFSR Central Industrial Region Cont.) Velikolukskaya 00 607 17,331 35 Vladimirskaya 00 930 11,155 83 Voronezhskaya 00 1,523 12,120 126 Yaroslavskaya O. 722 14,243 51 Vol:48. Region bal 1.-1.6.4A5 2.8 Astrakhanskaya 0. 391 29,683 13 MAYboYshevskaya O. Saratovskaya O. 1:: 200805 31 51 Stalingradskaya O. Tatarskaya ASSR 833 3326i109i 21 2,028 78 Ulyanovskaya O. 912 14,359 64 Southeast:Enka-12a g272 3.42,J14g a Dagestanskaya ASSR 764 14,745 52 Checheno-Ingushskaya ASSR 397 12,738 31 Krasnodarski,y K. 2,g4.14 32,810 87 210963 4,555 43 70 KaOnskaya O. Kabardino-Balkarskaya ASSR 317 Rostovskaya O. 1:7114. 234,01g 45 76 North Osetinskaya ASSR Stavropolskiy K. 1,669 38,253 44 Urals Re' ion 1421 Bashkirskaya ASSR 2,564 55,391 /it 2Liak R2. Che1yabinskaya O. 1,219 33,891 36 Chkalovskaya 00 102224 26 Molotovskaya O. 1,696 26 Sverdlovskaya 00 1,822 675%9 74,537 24 Udmurtskaya ASSR 903 16,289 55 Westsil............D.2.1:i.....E.,-an Re ion 8j37 934511 2 Altayskiy K. 2,140 100,978 21 Kemerovskaya O. 1,205 36,863 33 Kurganskaya O. 852 27,445 31 Novosibirskaya 0.1,402 69,017 20 Omskaya O. 1,129 53,770 21 Tomskaya O. 539 121?320 4 Tyumenskaya 00 870 526,118 2 East Siberian Region 5.1216. lagA22k Buryat-Mongc? ikayla ASSR 510 138,106 Chitinskaya 00 774 162,330 Irkutskaya O. 1,288 283,171 Kr/moyarskiy K. 1,881 893,216 256 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 2 5 5 2 1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Table A- continued APPENDIX Total PopulationP Land Area Persons Administrative Division& (in Thousands) (kb. Miles) pps Sq. Mile RSFSR East Siberian Region (CongT Tavinskaya A.O. Yakutskaya ASSR 147 65,031 2 416 10200,950 0.3 ...1:FaAgEERiltglIg. 2.486 1 026 246 2 Amurskaya 0. 531 135 4 4 Kamchatskaya O. 176 119,682 1 KhabarovsKy K. 536 223,452 2 Magadanskaya O. 198 459,479 0.4 Primorskiy K. 747 62,000 32 Sakhalinskaya 00 298 26,562 11 crain?y SSR 1.042 ?201, 133 Cherkasskaya 00 1,361 8,067 169 Chernigovskaya O. 1,424 12,198 117 Chernovitskaya 00 637 3,242 196 Dnepropetrovskaya O. 1,259 12,584 100 Drogobychskaya O. 734 3,860 190 Kharkovskaya O. 1,528 12,005 127 Khersonskaya O. 685 10,615 65 Khmelinitskaya O. 1,555 8,029 194 Kirovogradskaya 0. 1,058 9,727 109 Kiyevskaya O. 1,698 11,194 152 Krymskaya 0. 627 10,036 62 Igovskaya 0. 866 4,401 197 Nikolayevskaya O. 761 9,303 82 Odesskaya O. 1,309 12,777 102 Poltavskaya O. 1,435 11,117 129 Ravenskaya O. 913 7,952 115 Stalinskaya Oa 1,998 10,229 195 Stanislavskaya Oa 1,027 5,365 191 Sumskaya O. 1,369 9,418 145 Ternopolskaya O. 1,048 5,288 198 Vinnitskaya 0. 2,044 10,268 199 Volynskaya 0. 825 7,681 107 Voroshilovgradskaya O. 1,691 10,306 164 Zakarpatskaya O. 868 4,979 174 Zaporozhskaya 00 902 10,383 87 Zhitomirskaya 0. 1,420 11,580 123 r .1.321?I.-wL8P-11.4a."1 6.680 80.134 83 Brestakaya Oa 998 12,815 78 Gomelskaya O. 1,134 15,826 72 Grodnenskaya O. 868 7,141 122 257 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 SECRET Table A- continued APPENDIX TotaA popuiationb Land Area Persons Administrative Divisiona in Thousands) (?24.11192) per Sq. Mile atiallEgAMIR ( ?MT" ) Minskaya O. Mogilevskaya 0. Molodechnenskaya 0. Vitebskaya O. Uzbekskaya 1,200 13,394 90 -940 10,538 89 830 9,264 90 710 11,156 64 5.,0E 1590.01 Andizhanskaya O. 589 1,468 401 Bukharskaya O. 442 48,983 9 Ferganskaya O. 677 2,856 237 Kara-Kalpakskaya ASSR 382 61,451 6 Kashka-Darynskaya O. 399 10,847 37 Khorezmskaya O. 349 1,814 192 Namanganskaya O. 424 2,239 189 Samarkandskaya O. 834 13,780 61 Surkhan-Darynskaya O. 332 7,295 46 Tashkentskaya O. 1,081 8,368 129 Kazakhskaya SSR 69 4060,465 6 Akmolinskaya O. 537 58,942 9 Aktynbinskaya O. 329 115,067 3 4ami-Atinska7a O. 470 41,688 11 Dzhambulskaya O. 444 56,437 8 East Kazakhstanskaya O. 446 37,326 12 Guryevskaya O. 212 104,577 2 Karagandinskaya O. 351 155,326 2 Kokchetavskaya O. 372 29,722 13 Kustanayskaya O. 604 76,042 8 Kzyl-Ordinskaya O. 248 89,475 3 North Kazakhstanskaya O. 323 16,096 20 Pavlodarskaya O. 434 52,689 8 Semipalatinskaya O. 331 67,511 5 South Kazakhatanskaya O. 655 56,090 12 Taldy-Kurganskaya O. 412 47,748 9 West Kazakhstanskaya O. 271 55,729 5 katafta SSR gada 29.490 100 Gruzinskayi Proper 2,437 25,013 97 Abkhazskaya ASSR 361 3,350 108 Adzharskaya ASSR 156 1,119 139 ARSAMiglEALMILTi talk 220.80 2. Azerbaydzhanskaya Proper 2,276 31,073 73 Nakhichevanskaya ASSR 111 2,007 55 258 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 S EPC RET Table A- continu Total a Populationb Land Area Persons Administrative Division (in Thousands) (191.11.12!) eza...141 Litovskaya SSR Holdavskaya SSR Latvigskaya SSR o Kirgizskaya SSR 2.023 254167 80 ?Aga ataz RI o 14194 24.892 g 1.414ii 2?A?21 20 Dzhalal4badskaya O. 235 11,618 20 Frunzenskaya O. 605 10,075 60 Issyk-Kulakaya O. 183 16,289 11 Oshskaya 0. 416 17,216 24 Tyan-Shanskaya O. 105 21,500 5 Tadzhikskaya SSR 1,440 ikagla 26 o Gorno-Badakhshanekaya A.O. 58 23,585 2 Leninabadskaya O. 461 9,418 49 Cities and Rayons of Republic Subordination 921 21,809 42 Armyanskiva SSR 11275 a,..5223., 22. Turim,.../1814.........caSSR 2.14 11.32a22 Ashkhabadskaya O. 236 87,545 6 Chardzhouskaya O. 224 35,898 6 Miry$!skaya O. 248 34,701 7 Tashauzskaya O. 236 28,989 8 Estonskaya SSR 612.- 17.4Q.22 259 SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 S EGRET Table A-8 1958 POPULATION OF USSR CITIES AND 1940 POPULATION OF SELECTED CITIES ? (Numbers in Thousands) cit Abakan Achinsk Aginskoye Akmolinsk Aktyubinsk Alapayevsk Alatyr Aldan Aleksandriya Aleksandrov Aleksandrov-Sakhal- inskiy Aleksandrovsk Alma Ata Almalyk Almetyevsk Anadyr Andizhan Angarsk Angren Anzhero-Sudzhensk Arkhangelsk Armavir Arsenyev Artem Artemovsk Arzamas Asbest Ashkhabad Astrakhan Babushkin Babushkin Baku Balakhna Balashikha Balashov Baley Balkhash Baltiysk Barabinsk APPENDIX Population Map Administrative Division 1940 2.258 Key!: ? Krasnoya. K.9 RSFSR Krasnoya. K09 RSFSR Chitin. 00v RSFSR Akmolin. Oop Kaz. SSR Aktyubinsko 009 Kaz. Sal Sverdlovo 0.9 RSFSR Chuvash. ASSR Yakutsk? ASSR9 RSFSR Kiravograd. 00. Ukr. SSR Vladimir? 0.9 ?iSFSR Sakhalin. 00, RSFSR Molotov? 009 RSFSR Alma Atin. 009 Kaz. SSR Tashkent. 009 Uz. SSR Tatar. ASSR9 RSFSR Magadan? 009 RSFSR Andizhano 009 Uz. SSR Irkutsk? 0.9 RSFSR Tashkent? 009 Uz. SSR Kemerovo 009 RSFSR Arkh. 009 RSFSR Krasnodarskiy K09 RSFSR Primoro I09 RSFSR Primoro K09 RSFSR Stalinsko 009 Ukr. SSR Arzamaso O., RSFSR Sverdlov. 009 RSFSR Ashkhabad? 009 Turk? SSR Astrakhan. 009 RSFSR aRefer to Map III? 49 F10 ... 34 G10 .._ 4 F12 39 114 F8 41 62 F6 27 58 E6 31 58 F5 NOM 17 G13 011194aVilla 32 E4 sums 26 G4 01.0411ft4110, 46 F15 0.1.0OMD 32 G6 231 349 D8 OMMOMM 7 D7 MIMMICEM 6 F6 ... 5 H18 84 121 D8 MOSNOMP 46 m .... 31 D8 71 126 G9 281 246 H5 84 107 D5 39 51 D14 22 55 D14 55 58 E4 ... 40 G5 ... 55 E6 127 151 C6 .254 284 E5 Buryat-Mongol. A5SR9 RSFSR --- Moskov. 00, RSFSR 35 Azerbaydzhan. Prop09Az0389 809 Gorkov. 009 RSFSR ' Moskov0 009 RSFSR Balashov. 009 RSFSR Chitin. 008 RSFSR Karagandino Co9 Kaz.359 Kaliningrad. 0.9 RSFSR Novosibirsk? 009 RSFSR 260 SECRET 4 Fll 106 G4 932 D5 36 G5 54 G4 43 57 F5 ONOVAZI 35 F12 35 75 E8 35 F2 OM6C1131= 47 G8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Ap?roved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R0024nownnna_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy A proved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-8 (continued Baranavichi Barnaul _Bataysk Batumi Bayram All Belovat Belaya Tserkov Belgorod Belgorod Dnestrovskiy Beloretsk Belovo Beltsy Bendery Berdichev Berdsk Berezniki Berezovskiy Bezhetsk Bezhitsa Birobidzhan Kysk BlagovesOchensk Bobruysk Bogorodsk Bogotol Bologoye Bor Borislav Borisoglebsk Borisov Borovichi Borovsk Bratsk Brest Bryansk Bugulma Buguruslan Bukhara Buy Buynaksk Buzuluk Chapayevsk Chardzhou Cheboksary Cheleken Chelyabinsk Cheremkhovo SECRET APPENDIX Population Map Administrative Division 1940 1.25.8 Brest? 0.9 Belo. SSR Altay. K. RSFSR Rokov. 009 RSFSR Adzharo ASSR9 Gruz. SSR Maryy. 009 Turk? SSR Tashkent. 009 Uz. SSR Kiyev. 009 Ukro SSR Belgorod. 009 RSFSR Odessa. 009 Ukro SSR Bashkir. AMR, RSFSR Kemerovo 009 RSFSR floidav. SSR Moldav. SSR Zhitomirsk. 0.9 Ukro SSR Nomasibirsk. 0 RSFSR Holotovo 0.9 RSFSR Sverdlov. 009 RSFSR Kalinin. 009 RSFSR Bryansk. 0, RSFSR Khabarov. KO9 RSFSR Altay0 KO9 RSFSR Amursko 009 RSFSR Mogilev. Oa, Belo? SSR Gorkov. 009 RSFSR Krasnoyao K09 RSFSR Kalinin? 009 RSFSR Gorkov. O, RSFSR Drogobych. 009 Ukr. SSR Balashov. 009 RSFSR Minsk. 009 Belo. SSR Novgorod. 00, RSFSR Molotov? 00, RSFSR Irkutsk. 009 RSFSR Brest? 009 Belo. SSR Bryansk 0 RSFSR Tatar. ASSR9 RSFSR Chkalov. 009 RSFSR Bukhara 009 Uza SSR Kostromo 009 RSFSR Dagestan. ASSR, RSFSR Ghkalova 00.9 RSFSR Kuybyshev. 009 RSFSR Chardzhouo 0., Turk. SSR Chuvash. ASSR Ashkhabad. 0.9 Turk. SSR Che1y. 009 RSFSR Irkutsk? O., RSFSR ----7g17527;3717.gyansk. 261 SECRET 26 68 148 272 41 55 71 82 21 Oxit.6 GOO 3 6 4,4 48 45 COO =.01310 22 35 52 43 68 18 88 44 66 48 31 64 95 01[161100... 31 =0004M 30 53 8 38 80 120 59 87 84 90 21 28 25 20 30 52 56 46 46 26 CM =NMI 9 58 104 87 225 54 21 57 50 72 30 23 33 53 F3 F9 E4 D5 C7 D7 E4 F4 E4 F6 F9 E3 E3 E3 F9 G6 E6 G4 F4 E14 F9 F13 F3 G5 G9 G4/ G5 E3 F5 F3 G4 G6 Gil F3 F4 F6 D5 C7 G5 D5 D5 58 80 F5 55 66 C7 64 G5 5 C6 273 659 E6 66 130 Fll larmilwAm 0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R00240nn9nnnq_n Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-8 continuell alb Cherepovets Cherkassy Cherkessk Chernigov nu_ v or. Chernogorsk Chernovta Chernyakhovsk Chesnokovka Chiatura Chimbay Chimkent Chirchik Chistopol Chistyakovo Chita Chkalov Chusovoy Chust Daugavpils Debaltsevo Denau Derbent Dmitrov Dneprodzerzhinsk Dnepropetrovsk Dolinsk Donetsk Drogobych Druskininkay Druzhkovka Dudinka Dzerzhinsk Dzhalal-Abad Dzhambul Dzhezkazgan Dzhizak Elektrostal Engels Feodosiya Fergana Frunze Furmanov SECRET Administrative Division Vologodo 009 RSFSR Cherkass. 0.9 Ukr. SSR Stavropol? K., RSFSR Chernigovo 009 Ukr. SSR Bashkir? ASSR Krasnoyao K09 RSFSR Chernovito 00, Ukro SSR Kaliningrad? 009 RSFSR AltayQ L, RSFSR Gruzin. Proper, Gruz. SSR Kara-Kalpo ASSR, Uz. SSR Yuzhno-Kaz. 009 Kaz. SSR Tashkent? 009 Uz. SSR Tatar. ASSR9 RSFSR Stalinsk. 00, Ukr. SSR Chitin. RSFSR Chkalovo 00, RSFSR Molotov? 00, RSFSR Namangan. 009 Uzo SSR APPENDIX 122gation 1940 1.2g Lato SSR Stalinsk. 009 Ukr. SSR Surkhan-Daryn. 0., Uzo SSR Dagestan. ASSR, RSFSR Moskovo 00? RSFSR Dnepropetrovsk. 00, Ukr. SSR Dnepropetrovsk? 0.9 Ukr. SSR Sakhalin? 0.9 RSFSR Kamensko 0., RSFSR Drogovecho 009 Ukro SSR Lit. SSR Stalinsk. 00, Ukr. SSR Krasnoya. Ko, RSFSR Gorkovo 00, RSFSR Dzhalal-Abad. 0.9 KiroSSR Dzhambulo 0.9 Kazo SSR Karagandino 009 Kaz. SSR Samarkand. 0., Uzo SSR Moskov. 00D RSFSR Saratovo 0.9 RSFSR Krymsko 009 Ukro SSR Fergan. 00, Uzo SSR Frunz. 00, Kir. SSR Ivanovo 009 RSFSR ----"-EgiimeTWITEIT7aTTIT1956. 262 SECRET NapKeya 27 74 G4 52 63 '14 38 D5 67 76 F4 b F6 28 F10 79 152 E3 49 50 F3 36 F9 20 D5 16 D6 74 140 D7 45 67 D7 39 G6 58 80 E4 103 175 F12 173 240 D5 45 57 G6 22 D8 1211.1210..0. ...111111401.1. 0024110C130 ensmsogio aissaco... Cusow.a^P 40.0.231.110* 45 62 G3 21 34 E4 15 C7 40 D5 20 G4 148 170 E4 06190.21.63 terlIKE1001. .610,1130. 501 596 E4 46 E15 3 E5 39 38 E3 6 F3 40 E4 17 19 103 153 CO 21 D8 63 103 D8 18 E7 23 D7 0211.?NIC01, 1300.01.0Iti 111110 AVM CO 22 90 G4 73 81 F5 C?a? 44 E4 36 71 D8 93 206 D8 41 G5 mamma Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 , ? Table A4 Scontinued Gatchina Gizhduvan Glazav Gomel Gori Gorki,y Gorlovka Gorno Altaysk Gorodets torodok Gremyachinsk Grodno Groznyy Gubakha Gukovo Guryev Guryevsk Gusev Gus Khrustalnyy Igarka Illich Irbit Irkutsk Isfara Ishim Ishimbay Iskitim Ivanovo Ivanteyevka Ivdel Izberbash Izhevsk Izmail Izyum Kadiyevka Kagan Kagul Kakhovka Kalinin Kaliningrad Kaluga Kamenets Podolskiy Kamen-na-Obi Kamensk-Shakhtinskiy Kamensk Uralskiy Kamyshin Kamyshlov Kanash SECRET APPENDIX paylation Map Administrative Division 1249. 1221 ge Leningrad? 0.9 RSFSR Bukhar. O., Uz0 SSR Udmurt? ASSR9 RSFSR Gomel. 00? Belo? SSR Gruz. Prop" Gruz. SSR Gorkov. 00, RSFSR Stalinsk? ?09 Ukr. SSR Altay. K09 RSFSR Gorkov. 009 RSFSR Buryat Mongol? ASSR, RSFSR Molotov. 009 RSFSR Grodnen. 0.9 Belo? SSR Checheno-ingushskaya ASSR Molotov? 009 RSFSR Kamensk. 00, RSFSR Guryev. 0.9 Kaz. SSR Kemerovo 00, RSFSR Kaliningrad? 00, RSFSR Vladimir? OoD RSSR Krasnoya. K09 RSFSR Yuzhno-Kaz. 009 Kazo SSR Sverdlovo 00, RSFSR Irkutsk? 0.9 RSFSR Leninabado 009 Tad. SSR Tyumen. 009 RSFSR Bashkir? ASSR9 ASFSR Novosibirsk ? 009 RSFSR Ivanov. 009 RSFSR Moskav. 009 RSFSR Sverdlov. 0.9 RSFSR Dagestan? ASSR9 RSFSR Udmurt? ASSR9 RSFSR Odess. 009 Ukro SSR Kharkov? 009 Ukro SSR Voroshilo 0.9 Ukro SSR Bukhar0 00, Uz0 SSR Moldav. SSR Kherson. 009 Ukr. SSR Kalinin ? 009 RSFSR Kaliningrad. O., RSFSR Kaluzh. 009 RSFSR Khmelnit. 009 Ukro SSR Altay0 K09 RSFSR Kamensk0 0,9 RSFSR Sverdlov? 00, RSFSR Stalingrad. 009 RSFSR Sverdlov. 0.9 RSFSR Chuvash. ASSR9 RSFSR 263 SECRET 38 55 15 31 148 31 644 910 109 252 26 16 5 21 57 71 172 236 19 51 1 42 67 32 29 47 41.0?1110141111. eno01100110 6100101.111, MANIMUO, 1311=paplame 0.6.0*010 0,00d1.5.2 23 18 37 243 328 11 36 25 68 21 285 330 20 26 5 176 265 27 44 35 .11061,10.9. 0102...0?0 0.1.01MOSS 11?13.1.21111 two.c1121:a 40.01?0411.1 180 23 22 19 216 246 372 192 89 128 36 34 25 28 60 51 128 35 31 37 G4 D7 E5 F4 D5 G5 E4 F9 G5 FU G6 F3 D5 G6 E5 E6 F9 F3 G5 19 D7 E6 FU D8 G7 F6 79 G5 G4 F6 D5 E5 E3 E4 E4 C7 E3 E4 G4 F3 74 E3 F9 E5 E6 F5 E6 G5 ;/27 : CIA-RDP81-n1n4mPnn9Annrionnrin /1 ';',;t? ? ,;egg , Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-8 continued Way Kandalaksha Kanibadam Kansk Karabash Kara Bogaz Gol Karaganda Karpinsk Karshi Kasimov Kaspiysk Katta Kurgan Kaunas Kazan Kemerovo Kentau Kerch Kerki Khabarovsk Khanty Mans iysk Kharkov Khasavyurt Kherson Khimki Khiva Khmelnitskiy Khodzheyli Kholmsk Khorog Kimry Kineshma Kingisepp Kirov Kirovabad Kirovakan Kirovgrad Kirovograd Kirovsk Kiselevsk Kishinev Kislovodsk Ki,yev Kizel Kiziyar Kizyl Arvat Klaypeda Klin Klintsy Klukhori Kokand SECRET APPENDIX 1222041111211 Administrative Division 1242 1.22.1 Murmansk? 0.9 RSFSR Leninabad. 0?9 Tad. SSR Krasnoya. K09 RSFSR Chelya. 009 RSFSR Ashkabad. 009 Tnrk. SSR Karagandin. 0.9 Kaz. SSR Sverdlovo 009 RSFSR Kashka-Daryn. 00, Uzo SSR Ryazan. 0.9 RSFSR Dagestan. ASSR9 RSFSR Samarkand. 0., Uz. SSR Lit. SSR Tatar. ASSR9 RSFSR Kemerov. 009 RSFSR Yuzhno-Kaz. 0?9 Kazo SSR Krymsk? 009 Ukr. SSR Chardzhouo 0.9 Turk. SSR Khabarov K.9 RSFSR Tyumen. 00, RSFSR Kharkov. 00, Ukro SSR Dagestan? ASSR9 RSFSR Khersono 00p Ukr. SSR Moskovo 009 RSFSR Khoremskaya 0.0 Uzo SSR Khmelnito 0., Ukr. SSR Kara-Kalpo ASSR9 Uso SSR Sakhalin,' 0.9 RSFSR Gorno-Badakhshano A000, Tado SSR Kalinin? 0.9 RSFSR Ivanovo 0., RSFSR 75 Leningrad? 0.9 RSFSR Kirov? 009 RSFSR 143 Azerbaydzhan. Prop., Az.SSR 99 Armyano SSR Sverdlovo 0.9 RSFSR Kirovograd 0., Ukr. SSR 100 Murmansk? 009 RSFSR 28 Kemerovo 0.9 RSFSR 44 Moldav. SSR 53 Stavropol, K.9 RSFSR 51 Kiyev. 0.9 Ukr. SSR 846 Molotov.. 0.9 RSFSR 44 Checheno-Ingushskaya ASSR Ashkhabad? 0., Turko SSR Lito SSR 41 Moskov. 00, RSFSR Bryansko 009 RS1-91 Stavropol? K.9 RSFSR Fergan. 009 Uz. SSR 85 ametam.. 36 39 62 37 11 166 384 IMMICOMI MIMISMIM GIMMOCIIM 42 33 22 20 35 154 200 402 590 133 260 36 104 97 17 199 306 19 833 894 24 97 140 25 26 IMORICIM 0001001.11 VILMOMII MIMAMICI 38 53 16 18 53 mooMCIM nfl MOOM01111 acratioano MIMMOM SIMILIMCM 264 SECRET 13 30 86 216 115 61 47 121 57 125 212 59 1,010 90 26 21 56 25 46 10 92 Map E.92 14 D8 G10 E6 D6 E8 E5 C7 F5 D5 07 G3 G5 G9 D7 E4 07 E14 117 F4 D5 E4 G4 D7 E3 D6 E15 G8 G4 G5 G4 G5 05 D5 E6 E4 14 F9 D5 F4 G6 D5 C6 G3 G4 F4 05 08 cr Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release ? 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-8 continued Kok chetav Kokhtla Yarve Kok Yangak Kolchugino Kolpasheve Kolomna Kolomyya Kolpino Komsomolsk Konotop Konstantinovka Kopeyek Kovel Korkino Koresten Korsakov Kospash Kostroma Kotlas Kotovsk Kovrov Kramatorsk Krasnodar Krasnokamsk Krasnoturinsk Krasnoufimsk Krasnouralsk Krasnovodsk Krasnoyarsk Krasnyy Luch Krasnyy Sulin Krasnyy Tekstilshchik Kremenchug Kremenets Krivoy Rog Kronshtadt Kropotkin Kudymkar Kulebaki Kulyab Kumertau Kungur Kuntsevo Kupyansk Kurgan Kurgan Tyube Kursk Kushva Kustanay SECRET Administrative Division Kokchetavo 000 Kazo SSR Est. SSR Dzha1alAbad? 0.0 Kir. SSR Vladimir. 0o9 RSFSR Tomsk. 000 RSFSR Moskov. 00? RSFSR Stanislav? 0., Ukro SSR Leningrad? 0e9 RSFSR Khabarovo K09 RSFSR Sumo 0.0 Ukr. SSR Stalinsko 00, Ukr. SSR Chelya. 0.0 RSFSR Vayn. 000 Ukr. SSR Chayao 009 RSFSR Zhitomiro 00, Ukr. SSR Sakhalin? 00, RSFSR Molotov. 000 RSFSR Kostrom. 009 RSFSR Arkh. 0.? RSFSR Tambov? 00? RSFSR Vladimir. 00, RSFSR Stalinsk. 00, Ukro SSR Krasnodar. Ko? RSFSR Molotov? 009 RSFSR Sverdlovo O., RSFSR Sverdlovo 00, RSFSR Sverdlov. 00, RSFSR Ashkhabad. 00, Turk? SSR Krasnoyao K., RSFSR Voroshilo 0.? Ukr. SSR Kamensk. O., RSFSR Saratov O., RSFSR Poltavo 0.? Ukro SSR Ternopol. 00, Ukro SSR Dnepropetrovsk. 0o9 Ukr. SSR Leningrad. 009 RSFSR Krasnodar? Ko, RSFSR Molotov? 000 RSFSR Arzamaso 0.0 RSFSR Tad. SSR ASSR9 RSFSR Eblotor. 0.9 RSFSR Moskov0 O., RSFSR Kharkov.'0.? Ukro SSR Kurgan. 000 RSFSR Tad. SSR Kursk. 0., RSFSR Sverdlov. 000 RSFSR Kustanay. O., Kaz. SSR 265 SECRET APPENDIX Population 1940 1958. Map 16 70 F7 42 G3 16 Det 41 G4 INNIAMO 5 G9 75 96 G4 35 E3 4.0?10?11. 44 G4 71 185 F14 43 49 F4 95 92 E4 47 162 E6 eletIMONO 23 F3 79 D6 35 F3 22 53 El5 32 G6 121 160 G5 13 50 H4 CIIM.010.12 14 F5 67 92 G5 93 a:23 E4 204 282 E4 29 51 G6 8 63 E6 37 E5 .N.P4O.MM. 42 E6 45 D6 190 347 G10 51 70 E.:4 31 67 E5 6 F5 90 79 E4 29 F3 198 336 E4 48 55 H3 52 E5 20 G6 31 G5 16 C7 13 F6 33 61 G6 61 114 G4 24 E4 53 126 G7 22 C7 120 189 F4 47 E5 34 63 F7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 xe.44,:ggger6'"' Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Take A-8 (continutll 4 A Cit Kutaisi Kuybyshev Kuybyshev Kuyyshevka-Vostochn4a Kuznetsk Kyshtym Kyzyl Kyzyl Kiya Kzyl Orda Lenger Leninabad Leninakan Leningrad Leninogorsk Leninogorsk Leninsk Leninsk Kuznetskiy Lida Lipetsk Lisichansk Liyepaya Lomonosov Luga Lutsk Lvov Lysva Lyubertsy Lyublino Magadan Magnitogorsk Mak eyevka Makhachkala Malgobek Marganets Margelan Mariinsk Mary Maykop Mayli Say Mednogorsk Melekess Melitopol Mezhdurechensk Miass Michurinsk Millerovo SECRET Administrative Division Gruz. Prop., Gruz. SSR Kuybyshev. 009 RSFSR MpvQsairsk. 0.9 RSFSR frliarski 0.),2 RSFSR Peplen, 0, RSFSR Chelya. 0.9 RSFSR Tuvinsko A.0.9 RSFSR Oshso 009 Kir. SSR Kzyl Ordin. 0., Kazo SSR Yuzhno-Kazo 00, Kaz. SSR Leninabado 0.9 Tad. SSR Armyano SSR Leningrad 0.0 RSFSR Tatar. ASSR9 RSFSR Vostochno-Kazo 00, Kaz. Andizhano 0.9 Uzo SSR Kemerovo 0., RSFSR Grodneno 00, Belo. SSR Lipet. 0., RSFSR Voroshilo 0.9 Ukro SSR Lat. SSR Leningrad. 00, RSFSR Leningrad. 0.9 RSFSR Vayn. 0.9 Ukr. SSR Lvov. 0., Ukr. SSR Molotov. 009 RSFSR Moskovo 0.9 RSFSR Moskovo 0.9 RSFSR APPENDIX lazilation 1940 1958 81 390 IMP. AM IMOD 0??? 33 34 MO NM GM ONIIIIIMIN OMB 47 a- 46 68 3,191 50 SSR 030 01111114,11040116 82 011?1111= .00 67 25 57 401401111...0 .110.11100IF 411111.110 358 51 35 64 Magadan. O., RSFSR 35 Chelya. 00, RSFSR 146 Stalinsko O., Ukr. SSR 240 Dagestan. ASSR, RSFSR 87 Severo-Osetinsk. ASSR? RSFSR Dnepropetrovsk. O., Ukr. SSR Fergan. 00, Uz. SSR 40 Kemerovo 0.? RSFSR Maryy. 0.? Turk. SSR 34 Krasnodar. K., RSFSR 67 Dzhalal-Abad. 00, Kir, SSR Chkalov. 0., RSFSR Ulyanov. 0.? RSFSR Zaporozh. 0.? tJkr0 SSR 76 Kemerovo 0.0 RSFSR Chelya. 0, RSFSR 24 Tambov. 009 RE)FSR 70 Kamensk. 0.9 RSFSR OM MO INMOI 011111MOD ONO IDIVO 0114 MID Ms or.= MO MN ISO .1?0?111M12 al11.1110 266 SECRET --a Map a Key 120 D5 813 F6 18 G8 51 F13 51 F5 80 E6 33 F10 26 D8 61 D7 18 D8 77 D7 117 D5 3,250 G4 56 F6 99 F9 21 D8 129 F9 25 F3 130 F4 36 E4 103 G3 25 G3 45 G3 54 F3 397 E3 67 G6 83 G4 86 G4 56 G16 308 D5 326 E4 110 D5 D nn 5 33 51 37 50 79 2 29 25 92 2 58 77 36 E4 D8 G9 C7 D5 DS D5 F5 E4 F9 D6 F5 E5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-8 continued City Mingechaur Minsk Minusinsk Mirzachul Mogilev Mogilev Podolskiy Molodechno Molotov Molotovsk Monchegorsk Morshansk MoskvA Mozyr Hukachevo Murmansk Murom Myski Mytishchi Nakhichevan Nakhodka Nalchik Namangan Narva Naryan Mar Naryn Nebit Dag Nelidovo Neman Nerekhta Nezhin Nikolayev Nikolayevsk Nikopol Nizhniy Tagil Nizhnyaya Tura Noginsk Norilsk Novgorod Novocherkassk Novograd Vaynskiy Novokiiybyshevsk Novomoskovsk Novorossiysk Novoshakhtinsk Novosibirsk Novo-Troitsk Novo Vilnya SECRET APPENDIX FoNlation Map Administrative Division 1940 1258 Keva Azerbaydzhan Prop.9 Az. SSR Minsk. 0.9 Belo. Safi* Krasnoya. Ko9 RSFSR Tashkent. 00, Uz. SSR Mogilev. 009 Belo. SSR Vinnits. 0.9 Ukr. SSR Molodechnen. 009 Belo. Molotov. 0.9 RSFSR Arkh. 0.9 RSFSR Murmansk. 0.9 RSFSR Tambov. 0.9 RSFSR Moskov. 0.9 RSFSR Gomel. 0.9 Belo. SSR Zakarpat. 0.9 Ukr. SSR Murmansk. 009 RSFSR Vladimir. 0.9 RSFSR Kemerovo 0., RSFSR Moskov. 0., RSFSR .9.1111119139?1111 30 D5 239 431 F3 /115. 1,07 99 110 F4 19 E3 15 F3 575 G6 69 H4 31 14 45 51 F5 4,137 4,950 G4 20 F3 117 144 14 34 65 G5 4 F9 60 93 G4 6.9 0?1919110i ONO 1111111????? MIS SSR 255 20 10111.???? Nakhichevan. ASSR9 Azo SSR Primoro K09 RSFSR Kabardino ASSR9 RSFSR Namangan. 0., Uz. SSR Est. SSR Arkh. O., RSFSR Tyan-Shano 00, Kir. SSR Ashkhabad. 0.9 Turk. SSR Velikoluk. O., RSFSR Kaliningrad, 0.9 RSFSR Kostram. 0.9 RSFSR Chernigovo 0.9 Ukr. SSR 38 Nikolayev. 0.9 Ukr. SSR 167 Khabarov. Ko9 RSFSR 18 Dnepropetrovsk. 0.9 Ukro SSR 58 Sverdlov. O. RSFSR 160 Sverdlov. 0.9 RSFSR Moskov. 0.9 RSFSR Krasnoya. K., RSFSR Novgorod. 0.9 RSFSR 36 Rostov. 0.9 RSFSR Zhitomir. O., Ukr, SSR Kuybyshev. 0.9 RSFSR Dnepropetrovsk. 0.9 Ukro SSR Krasnodar. K., RSFSR 95 Kamensk. 0" RSFSR 49 Novosibirsk. 0.9 RSFSR 406 Chkalov. 0.9 RSFSR Lit. SSR dIMLIKENOM 0111011M411015 11110??????11. MEM MOO= 21 C5 1 55 D14 48 73 D5 77 109 D8 42 G3 11 16 19 Da 42 C6 6 G4 12 G3 25 05 45 F4 214 E4 75 F15 86 E4 311 E5 31 E6 81 101 G4 94 19 50 G4 81 92 E5 30 F3 11 F5 C11111?111111.1111101 119911011109 IRO 0111. 1.1100 Wham era ??? MAP MEP 111?113?Iirs 111011 MOM 1??????? =1111..a. 1.1?0,000 al/ma ONO ?1?1.41MM, //1111.M1111910 9119011939.? 267 SECRET eic* mama 33 E4 81 D4 97 E4 771 F9 31 D5 12 F3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 9 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27 : CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-8 continued' City Novo zybkov Nukus Odessa Okha Oktyabrskiy Omsk Ordzhonikidze Orekhovo-Zuyevo Orel Orgeyev 04pha Orsk Osh Osinniki Osipenko Palana Panevezhis Pavlodar Pavlograd Pavlov() Pavlovsk Pavlovskiy Posad Penza Pereslavl Zaleskiy Perovo Pervomaysk Pervouralsk Petrodvorets Petrokrepost Petropavlovsk Petropavlovsk Kamchat- skiy Petrovsk Zabaykalskiy Petrozavodsk Pinsk Plast Podolsk Polevskoy Polotsk Poltava Polyarnyy Poronaysk Poti Priluki Priozersk Prokopyevsk Palanga SECRET APPENDLX Population Map Administrative Division 1940 1251 Eeya Bryansk. 0.2 RSFSR Kara-Kalp. ASSR2 Uz. SSR Odesskaya 0.2 Ukr. SSR Sakhalin. 0.0 RSFSR Bashkir. ASSR2 RSFSR Omsk. 009 RSFSR Severo-Osetinsk. ASS; RSFSR Moskov. 009 RSFSR Orlov. 0.2 RSFSR Moldav. SSR Viteb. 0.2 Belo. SSR Chkalov. O., RSFSR Osh. 009 Kir. SSR Kemerovo 0.2 RSFSR Zaporozh. O., Ukr. SSR Kamchat. 0. RSFSR Lit. SSR Pavlodar. 0.2 Kaz. SSR Dnepropetrovsk. 009 Ukr. SSR Gorkov. 0.2 RSFSR Leningrad. 0., RSFSR Moskov. 0.0 RSFSR Penzen. 0.2 RSFSR Yaroslavl. 0.0 RSFSR Moskov. O., RSFSR Nikolayevsk. O., Ukr. SSR Sverdlav. 009 RSFSR Leningrad. 000 RSFSR Leningrad. O., RSFSR Severo-Kaz. 0.0 Kaz. SSR Kamchat. 009 RSFSR Chitin. 0.0 RSFSR Karel. ASSR2 RSFSR Brest. 0.2 Belo. SSR Che1ya. 0.2 RSFSR Moskov. 002 RSFSR Sverdlov. O., RSFSR Viteb. 0.2 Belo. SSR Poltav. 002 Ukr. SSR Murmansk. 0.2 RSFSR Sakhalin. 0.0 RSFSR Gruz. Prop., Gruz. SSR Chernigov. 009 Ukr. SSR Leningrad. 009 RSFSR Kemerovo 0.2 RSFSR Lit. SSR 268 SECRET 811?00011atale 0?11.011?41.0 29 F4 32 D6 604 617 46 43 64 281 540 lallso?????111 127 99 na. ,21...1.113110 35 66 33 25 52 MMOzipt 129 112 132 11 50 167 52 75 60 1 27 60 28 70 --a 36 29 25 53 157 243 26 78 135 43 41 80 10 10 92 123 Inn se !IND VW...edam amem101/100 .10CMCNI 7 59 13 58 70 126 42 17 72 116 31 30 130 132 31 46 42 47 20 107 281 8 elll? MOM ????, .1.111.1:11101. ???41.11115 mot 421.MV.AW momm.0.10 a- Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R00240no7onng_n E4 F15 F6 G8 D5 G4 F4 E3 F4 D5 D8 F9 E4 F16 G3 F8 E4 G5 G4 G4 F5 G4 G4 E4 E6 G3 04 F7 F16 FU H4 F3 D6 G4 E6 G3 E4 14 El5 D5 F4 H4 F9 G3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release @ 50-Yr 2013/08/27: CIA-RDP81-01043R002400020009-0 Table A-8 continued Przhevalsk Pskov Pugachev Pushkin Pushkin? Pyarnu Pyatigorsk Ramenskoye Ras skazovo Raychikhinsk Rechitsa Revda Rezekne Riga Roslavl Rostov Rostov Rovno Rtishchevo Rubezhnoye Rubtsovsk Rustavi Ruzayevka Ryazan Rzhev Safonovo Salavat Salekhard Samarkand Sambor Saran Saransk Sarapul Saratov Semipalatinsk Serpukhov Serov Sestroretsk Sevastopol Severomorsk Severouralsk Shadrinsk Shakhrisyabz Shakhty Sharya Shatura Shcherbakov Shchekino SECRET Administrative Division Issyk-Kuls. 0.9 Kir? SSR Pskov. 009 RSFSR Saratov. 0.9 RSFSR Leningrad. 0., RSFSR Moskovo 009 RSFSR Est. SSR Stavropol. K09 RSFSR Moskov. 0.9 RSFSR Tambov? 0., RSFSR Amursk. 009 RSFSR Gomel. 009 Belo. SSR Sverdlovo 0.9 RSFSR Lat. SSR Lat. SSR Smolensk. 0.9 RSFSR Rostov. 009 RSFSR Yaroslavl? 00 RSFSR Rovensko 009 Lro SSR Balashovo 009 RSFSR Voroshilo 0.9 Ukro SSR Altay. Ko, RSFSR Gruz. Prop09 Gruzo SSR Mordov. ASSR9 RSFSR Ryazan. 009 RSFSR Kalinin. 0., RSFSR APPENDIX Population Map. 1940 1958 Ke? Smolensk. 0.9 RSFSR Bashkir? ASSR9 RSFSR Tyumen. 0.9 RSFSR Samarkand. 0.9 Uz. SSR Drogobycho 009 Ukro SSR Karagandino 009 Kaz. SSR Mordov. ASSR9 RSFSR Udmurt. ASSR9 RSFSR Saratovo 009 RSFSR Semipalatinsk? 0.9 Kazo SSR Moskov. 009 RSFSR Sverdlov. o.; RSFSR Leningrad. 0.9 RSFSR Krymsko 0.9 Ukr. SSR Murmansk. 0.9 RSFSR Sverdlov. 0.9 RSFSR Kurgan. 0.9 RSFSR Kashka-Daryn. 00? Uz. SSR Kamensk. 009 RSFSR Kostrom. 0., RSFSR Moskov. 009 RSFSR Yaroslavl. 0.9 RSFSR Tul. 009 RSFSR 269 SECRET 20 51 60 70 26 40 55 20 31 70 411.1.0110-47?11, MINOMMONNI OKOMUICIO. 63 25 45 28 40 52 21 385 592 40 510 564 36 48 41 30 41 32 26 97 41 31 95 143 54 55 IMISONI?411115.1 Moreno Naas ICM?11100/0 D8 G3 F5 G4 G4 G3 D5 G4 F5 EU F4 E5 G3 G3 F4 E4 G4 F3 F5 F9 D5 F5 F4 G4 8 G4 13 F6 16 17 134 178 C7 24 E3 21 F8 41 67 P5 37 61 E5 376 539 F5 110 141 F9 91 105 F4 65 95 E6 32 H4 112 137 D4 16 14 26 F5 47 G7 24 C7 155 189 E5 25 G5 45 G4 139 170 G4 15 F4 /11.1.10???10 ????I?Iseno