OUTLINE OF SPEECH GIVEN AT AIR WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL SECURITY FORUM APRIL 27, 1959 BY ALLEN W. DULLES "THE WORLD SITUATION"

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01009A001502770003-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 20, 2013
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: April 27, 1959
• Content Type: MISC

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General Todd
General Tate
OUTLINE OF SPEECH GIVEN AT
AIR WAR COLLEGE NATIONAL SECURITY FORUM
April 271 1959
BY
ALLEN W. DULLES
"TEE WORLD SITUATION"
A Word About Intelligence Community.
1. INTRODUCTION - Deal with basic issues - rather than
attempt country-by-country analysis.
2. Most troubles stem from Sino-Soviet Bloc policies -
No longer merely nationalistic - International
Communism has world-wide ambitions.
3. Some problems - - even if no international Communism - -
Nations emerging from colonial rule - - Africa, Cuba,
etc. - - but even these aggravated by Bloc's activities.
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2.
? 4. General political posture of U.S.S.R. (Deal with China
separately.)
(a) Does not propose initiate general war - -
now.
(b) Will it be more adventuresome now that it
has nuclear semi plenty?
Some division of thought here.
Stalin adventuresome in Korea - Berlin
before had nuclear bombs.
On balance believe Kbrushchev will be
more active than in 1953-1958 period
but short of war.
(c) Will emphasize the subversive type of
actions - Iraq - Capitalize on incompetence
of new countries to govern.
(d) What about limited wars? Wars by Proxy
(as Korea).
(e) Emphasis on secrecy - sedurity (Geneva talks)
Hide weaknesses and permit surprises.
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3.
5. Military posture of U.S.S.R.
Emphasis on -
(a) Guided missiles.
(b) Nuclear power.
(c) Conventional weapons.
(d) Nuclear subs?
(e) Defense against air attack.
Are they ahead over-all? No.
Will there be a missile gap?
Nay did we do so little in missiles between 1943-1953?)
Industrial position - -
(Refer New Orleans speech)
G.N.P. - 45%
Put greater proportion of G.N.P. back into industrial
capacity.
7. Will agriculture slow them down?
New lands.
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4..
8. China - -
(a) The alliance still strong with the U.S.S.R.
(Axe there potential fissures?)
(b)' U.S.S.R. sensitive to communes.
(c) Tibet.
(d) Attitude toward Taiwan
(The Warsaw talks).
9. The Grave Issues
(a) Berlin - Khrushchev's intentions - split Allies
and NATO - but compromise short of war.
East German regime - Ulbricht.
Keeping Berlin going as industrial city.
Berlin as cancer - vis-a-vis Satellites.
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5
(b) Middle East
Here Communist and old Imperialist Russian
anbitions coincide.
Khrushchev's plan use Iraq and Kurds to
split Middle East - move into heart of oil
areas.
Iraq - is it Communist controlled?
Has Nasr broken with U.S.S.R. - with
Communism?
The threat to Iran.
The future of Arab Nationalism.
(c) Quemoy and Taiwan
Will CHICOMS renew offensive?
(d) Latin America
Cuba and non-intervention - end of
dictatorships.
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?
6.
(e) Free democracies versus Communist-dominated
Societies
Democracy requires education, experience,
discipline and patience - Can't expect new
societies of SEA - Africa, etc., to apply
our standards.
Trend toward military autocracies -
Burma, Pakistan, Sudan, Indonesia, etc..
Headlong rush to freedom - in Black Africa
(f) Competition with U.S.S.R. for role of Economic
Guide to Uncommitted World
The appeal of U.S.S.R. - In three decades from
underdeveloped state to No. 2.
Yet we have great advantages - but legislative
strings - annual Congressional battle - little
ability to long-term planning hampers our
effort.
European powers - England - Germany - France -
Italy can play supporting role.
Long-term loans - Development Riad - best
,answer.
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7.
(g) Meeting the Subversive Threat
The Communist Parties - Front organizations.
In general making progress - decline in
Communist parties - France - Italy.
Indonesia turning away.
But stilllong way to go.
(h) Disarmament - Reality or dream.
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8.
11. Recapitulation:
Since fall of China - that is, for last nine years -
on balance - international Communism has on balance made
no net gains - (North Vietnam versus evacuation East
Austria).
Free World on balance relatively stronger
economically and politically -
U.S.S.R. has made gain in becoming great nuclear
power - and in missile field - giving it strong
blackmailing weapon (if we let them frighten us).
U.S.S.R. putting larger percentage its national
product into national objectives - military and related
fields.
Query whether we can safely continue put three times
as much into consumer goods - luxury items - raising
living standards, etc. -
We may have to tighten belts if U.S.S.R. continues
its present national security policies.
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9.
12. Finally - - You suggested that I give intelligence estimate
for future:
1. The Free World can continue to maintain position
of overall superiority:
(a) If it remains united and militarily prepared.
(b) (If it) refuses to retreat or compromise
with international Communism.
(c) If it moves with assurance and speed in
helping to deal with the economic problems
of the uncommitted, underdeveloped world.
(d) If it succeeds in arousing the Free World
to the nature of the international threat.
2. Some evolution in U.S.S.R. under education - - contacts -
growing demand for consumer goods.
Not hopeless that in decade or so - a different
Russia will be there.
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