NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
25
Document Creation Date: 
December 27, 2016
Document Release Date: 
October 22, 2012
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
February 9, 1987
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1.pdf892.6 KB
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Director of I Op 3M'CF0.- Central Intelligence National Intellim ence Daily Monday 9 February 1987?. CPAS NID 87-032JX s ruoruary-VYB7 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Too Secret Contents Iran-Iraq: Fighting Likely To Intensify .......................................... 2 Syria: Assad's Economic Initiatives .............................................. 3 Lebanon-Syria: Negotiations on Summit Stalled ........................ 4 Iraq: After Al Basrah .................................................................... 4 Philippines: Military Operations To Resume .............................. 5 Sri Lanka: New Military Offensive ................................................ 5 France-Chad-Libya: French Troop Deployments ........................ 6 UN-USSR: Soviet Bid To Control Disarmament Session ............ 7 USSR: Resistance to Quality Control .......................................... 7 Saudi Arabia: Drawing Down Oil Stockpiles ................................ 8 Canada-South Africa: Hints of Further Sanctions ...................... 8 Special Analyses India-Pakistan: Force Levels, Tensions Remain High ................ 10 USSR: Improved Economic Performance in 1986 ...................... 12 Peru: The Threat From Sendero Luminoso .................................. 14 Top Secret February 198-7 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26 : CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Iq Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Too Secret Fighting Likely To Intensify Anticipating a resumption of intense fighting on the battlefield east of Al Basrah, both sides have sent more men into the area 25X1 and continue to fortify their positions; Iraq will probably also increase its airstrikes a ainst Iranian cities and economic targets. 25X1 25X1 Iraqi warplanes attacked Qom and Tabriz in response to. Tehran's Scud missile attack on Baghdad on Thursday. So far this year, Iraq has bombed more than 20 cities and towns in Iran, some almost daily. Tehran savs total Iranian civilian casualties this year already exceed 12,000. 25X1 drive the - ck with small, localized attacks. Baghdad probably want conserve its resource it expects Iran to launch new atta Comment:12raqi-c~~aiat~r-a# aek-to~- ove4heranian salient east of Al B srah remains unlike) in the next fea -we . Instead, Iraqi units will probab - -ni - le-at'the Iranian frontlines and slowly DIA Com rent: While the Iranians could launch a major attack with little wining, both sides now appear to be consoiffl`ting their post9'ons. DIA believes that their-agis control Ujayraw~i .ah`~sland, and the is no posit veeevidence of Iranians there. ihe~position of any remaining-lrarfianlvforces would be tenuousat*best because t w-oWd-be well within Iraqi direct-fire weapaa&+eng . Top Secret Iran probably will launch new attacks, either to expand its salient east of Al Basrah or to threaten Iraq's forces elsewhere on the southern front-and us to draw Iraqi units away from the fighting near Al Basrah LI: to 25X1 isolate sari y to capture, asra , ut it is Also trvina to ~.,~~vvaq~s~4~r; par#tolareserar 25X1 Iraq's_bom1J1 ig ranian cities-is-uniikelyat,Jeast,in the near term, to dissuade Tehran from further offensives. A moreefective use of air and artillp y stri k es against Iranian rear stain areas, however, might disrupt Tehran's-preparations 25X1 2 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Ton Secre 25X1 I concerns nfluenced Assad's decision to attend the recent Islamic summit in Kuwait. As an enticement for Assad's attendance Kuwait provided Syria with free oil late last year President Assad is taking new measures to halt Syria's economic 25X1 decline-his most critical domestic concern-including pressing for more aid from moderate Arab states and cutting government subsidies. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Weakened domestic finances have forced Assad to approve additional measures to cut spending, although they will impose further hardships on the Syrian population. Earlier this week, Damascus increased the price of gasoline b 71 percent and meat by 31 percent. +wne-M1 n+sti r 25X1 another-~7?da-perms-rise-in-the-price- 25X1 Public dissatisfaction over economic conditions is increasing) evident in Damascus, although there is little active dissension 25X1 ,099--automobifes-were 25X1 he-bitterne!? of y~Ta-e-being-asked-t o' l IC r.YL_ ndfie The __ IIVG s; CA ...,,,.ss. ... v ~- ,. lice recen use orce to control a crowd outside a governments ore. 25X1 for bread are likely to be left in place. Comment: Assad's position is still secure, but he will face increasing difficulty in deflecting the blame for economic problems. The plan to eliminate subsidies will probably be implemented slowly, and those into organized antiregime activity. Assad is ready to use Syria's extensive security apparatus to quash any domestic unrest. His opponents-chiefly Islamic fundamentalists-have been unable to translate economic distress Top Secret growing sacrifiltes 3 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret LEBANON-SYRIA: Negotiations on Summit Stalled The Syrian-Lebanese negotiations on convening a summit between Presidents Assad and Gemayel are continuing, but new obstacles are likely to delay any such meeting -t4ie-iaa~lWSion-ef-Mtastim-Tlttl l r i and .Jurablat - n4he-ne ti 'tions; which are focused-on= eparing-a- paek-age-of-Lebanese,7olitic-al-reforms: In the meantime, an additional 400 Syrian troops entered West Beirut late last week to bolster the existing 1,000- to 1,500-man contingent that has been there since last July. The fresh troops were dispatched to enforce a new security plan to cope with the deteriorating conditions in West Beirut, especially at Beirut International Airport Comment: Syrian insistence on including the Muslims in the negotiations for the summit almost certainly will delay the meeting between Assad and Gemayel. Substantive differences continue to separate the two sides. The deployment of additional Syrian troops into West Beirut will do little to contain the growing anarchy there. To be effective, Damascus must introduce several thousand troops, a commitment it has been reluctant to make. Baghdad remained relatively calm during the early phases of Iran's recent offensives,eeordu' t-to--UG-Essy??ts3 but public morale began to decline as the magnitude of the casualties- estimated at 20,000-became known. There was great elation among the leaders when the Iranian attacks east of Al Basrah finally were blunted; President Saddam Husayn awarded Defense Minister Khayrallah the country's highest medal for directing the counterattack. raq's generals are pushing for more aggressive tactics, but civilian leaders fear the public would not stand for continued high casualties. Comment: Barring a catastrophic military defeat or an assassination, the Iraqi regime will probably stay intact. A coup would be likely only if Saddam's continued rule is perceived to jeopardize Iraq's survival. The elevation of Khayrallah last week to the post of Army Chief of Staff may be an attempt to placate the generals by giving them greater influence in the leadership councils. The generals will use him as their conduit into Saddam's inner circle. Khayrallah's military competence is suspect, however, and this could become an issue if Iran launches another attack within t weeks, as expected. Tnn Rarrat 25X1 L~.)A I 4 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 25X1 PHILIPPINES: Military Operations To Resume X The 60-day truce between the Philippine Government and Communist insurgents ended Friday-shortly before its scheduled expiration- after a rebel ambush in northern Luzon in which five soldiers were killed. In a published announcement, the insurgents accused the government of brutally suppressing their forces, appeared to rule out any possibility of further talks, and said the truce was over in northern Luzon. Philippine military leaders warned they would begin operations against the rebels today but said, they would exempt areas where local peace talks are continuing. Comment: Although further raids are likely in remote areas as the Communists seek to demonstrate their military power and to bolster insurgent morale, local Communist leaders probably remain divided over future plans..Insurgents in the western islands reportedly are considering extending the truce, while rebels and military forces elsewhere are braced for a resumption of hostilities. The attack in northern Luzon and the insurgents' uncompromising public statement he Communist nations leadership feared the continuation of the wmild Prnrip thp nronananda and military oai~ made thus far. SRI LANKA: New Military Offensive The military offensive Colombo launched against Tamil insurgent strongholds in the north this weekend-the second in a month-may damage prospects for a renewal of Indian-backed peace talks. Government spokesmen claimed the Army's two-pronged attack in Jaffna destroyed 15 insurgent bunkers while limiting casualties on both sides, according to press reports. Indian officials expressed serious concern to Colombo on Saturday about its month-old economic blockade of the Jaffna Peninsula and other recent Sri Lankan military operations in the east, which allegedly killed at least 100 Tamil civilians. Tamil insurgents have launched raids against Sinhalese villages in the east in retaliation for Colombo's alleged massacres. Two Indian envoys are scheduled to arrive in Colombo later this week to resume discussions on peace talks. Comment: Colombo probably will try to limit civilian casualties in the Jaffna operation-it has not yet used aircraft-to prevent charges of massacre by security forces and to avoid providing an excuse for further insurgent reprisals against civilians. Military operations against rebels in the north this year have been more successful than past efforts and probably have been designed in part to show that Colombo is not negotiating from a position of complete weakness. New Delhi, however, may delay the visit of its envoys to protest Colombo's offensive. Top Secret 75X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret Military Developments Lake Chad Deployment of French forces 75 150 Miles 1-1 % Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret FRANCE-CHAD-LIBYA: French Troop Deployments French forces in Chad were moved d possibly Biltine, according to press aril The redeployment to Abeche, 138 miles (220 kilometers) south of the 16th parallel, is the first step in setting up a forward defensive and logistic base from which the French can ship supplies to Chadian forces above the 16th parallel and block an attempted Libyan advance toward N'Djamena. also willvir enae-ra rs-a ro a e sur ace-to-air missile Comment: The French have portrayed the redeployment as part of the defensive mission of their force in Chad, but it is probably also intended to signal Libyan leader Qadhafi that Paris intends to live up to its commitment to Chadian President Habre. The decision to move the Crotale missiles to Abeche may explain the denial of Habre's recent request to move the system to Fada. x Top Secret 25X1 25X1 I 25X1- L~.)A I 25X1 25X1 25X1 6 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 UN-USSR: Soviet Bid To Control Disarmament Session p.reparafory commission anrbicia.-wj]l-meet is- ay. 25X1 The USSR is already working to ensure that next year's scheduled UN Special Session on Disarmament-the first since 1978-is an effective forum for Soviet positions at the expense of the US. The session will be chaired by an East German, unless the West succeeds in postponing it to 1989, when a Latin American would normally assume the chair. ovie#s aretisup~iorfin`g n-and-M .agari-on 'he--S-ov+ets- lan-to-p ess&- e-US--hand on isarmame - 25X1 isMes avi an-e,a-?n4be ms d tisi-ete-ction-ca tg Comment: Moscow is well aware the special session in New York will attract close international attention. The Soviets will bend every effort to control the agenda and resist Western moves to delay the session. USSR: Resistance to Quality Control Soviet party's Central Committee. control program, despite opposition. at the recent plenum of the dissatisfaction among factory workers with new quality-control measures. According to senior officials, inspections have sparked increased grumbling among workers and have reportedly led to isolated work stoppages. The complaints focus on requirements to fix substandard goods, which take time away from work on the quantitative targets on which salaries and bonuses are based. General Secretary Gorbachev renewed his support for the quality- Soviet industrial managers are concerned about growing satisfaction within the USSR competitiveness in manufacturing and increased consumer Comment: The recent protests underscore the perversity of the Soviets' incentive structure and the strains inherent in Gorbachev's modernization drive. Civilian industries are being required to raise quality standards, but they have gotten no relief from ambitious plan targets and have experienced few improvements in the supply of raw materials. Gorbachev's commitment to the program is expected to remain strong, however, even if dissatisfaction among workers escalates. The Soviet leader has made clear that he will keep pressing in order to achieve long-term payoffs in the form of greater Soviet 7 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret SAUDI ARABIA: Drawing Down Oil Stockpiles Saudi Arabia apparently believes its 55-million-barrel oil stockpile 25X1 abroad is unnecessarily large and potentially destablizing to oil prices and has begun trimming it. the 25X1 drawdown has averaged about 200,000 barrels per day since early last month. At this rate, oil stockpiles could be virtually eliminated by fall 25X1 Comment: Riyadh stockpiled oil as a strategic hedge against disruptions of the world oil market by the Iran-Iraq war and to increase its marketing flexibility. It probably will continue its cautious rate of depletion to avoid depressing oil prices. Nevertheless, Riyadh is eager to trim storage costs, which-at about $6 million per month-now outweigh the benefits of large stockpiles. The Saudis may also be attempting to dissolve Norbec, their Swiss- based oil-marketing arm, which has been manaaing the oil stocks. Prime Minister Mulroney announced recently that Canada was considering total economic sanctions against South Africa and might go as far as breaking diplomatic relations. Mulroney also said he would try to persuade the US and the UK of the need for stronger action against Pretoria. The comments followed meetings with 25X1 leaders of the Frontline States at which he op osed the use of violence to combat apartheid. 25X1 Comment: Canada has played a major role within the Commonwealth on the South African issue and is likely to call for more sanctions at a Commonwealth meeting in Vancouver next fall. It may also propose more economic aid for the Frontline States, but a break in diplomatic relations with Pretoria is unlikely. Greater economic pressure against South Africa would meet with widespread public support in Canada and would cost the troubled Mulroney government little because South Africa accounts for less than 1 percent of Canada's foreign trade. Given recent tensions with the US, Ottawa is unlikely to make a major attempt to influence US policy toward South Africa. 25X1 Top Secret 25X1 8 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret reduce threat to insurgent strongholds in area. 25X1 supply route to forwar Angolan units severed ... will temporarily - UNITA commandos attacked bridge near Cuito Cuanavale in Angola on Thursday, primary 25X1 Mwinyi's economic reform, new IMF agreement appeals demanding he stay ... Nyerere undermining President - Former President Nyerere may renege on promise to resign as head of Tanzania's only party ... cronies reportedly engineering Americas - Colombian terrorist group M-19 reiterating threat to kidnap US Embassy personnel in retaliation for Lehder's arrest ... reports have linked traffickers in plans to target Embassy personnel. opposition plans for additional protests students, who turned out for human rights rallies in Seoul, elsewhere Saturday ... meager public response may scuttle - South Korean police easily handled some 9,000 protesters, mostly will probably persist in pushing new forum be left to summit ... P'yongyang rejected this approach before, - South Korea reportedly will respond on Friday to North Korea's call for political-military talks ... will reiterate these issues should Western Europe - Antonio Hernandez Mancha elected this weekend to head Spain's main conservative opposition party ... likely to give party more progressive, center-right image ... first major test will come in municipal, local elections this spring. Hansen ... if he resigned, government might be in jeopardy. - Norwegian Defense Minister Hoist, Chief of Staff Bull-Hansen continuing dispute over military strength, embarrassing minority Labor government ... opposition, conservative press support Bull- Top Secret 9 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Special Analysis INDIA-PAKISTAN: Force Levels, Tensions Remain High Ton Secret The agreement this week to reduce forces in the border area is likely, if implemented by both sides, to reduce tensions and to provide the basis for continuing efforts to defuse the current situation. New Delhi appears determined to follow through with the Brass Tacks IV exercise, however, which is scheduled to continue until April, and each side is almost certain to retain a higher-than-normal military presence in sensitive border areas at least until the exercising forces return to garrison. So far, both sides have deployed forces to provide defense against a sudden attack by the other. With the juxtaposition of heavily armed regular Army forces, a shooting incident could escalate quickly to more intense fighting, which could involve major forces on each side. Both countries appear prepared for a localized border conflict now. Although India and Pakistan have taken steps to increase their overall military preparedness, particularly in the immediate border area, neither has taken the steps it would consider necessary for offensive action. Forces in the immediate border area are primarily infantry divisions, not the armored or mechanized units that both sides would rely on to press a major assault. India, if unconstrained by efforts to conceal the transition to a war footing, would be prepared to launch a major invasion of Pakistan and to bring the country to a war footing in 48 to 72 hours. Islamabad could achieve similar preparedness in 48 hours Pakistan has some 145,000 troops 25X1 and 850 an s near a or er, inc u ing its two armored divisions held in strategic reserve opposite Kashmir and Punjab. Islamabad considers these two divisions as necessary to counter any Indian continued Too Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret breakthrough; New Delhi sees them as the primary Pakistani invasion forces. Navies have not traditionally played a major part in Indo-Pakistani wars, and current naval dispositions probably are not considered threatening by either side. Both Navies are on alert, but most ships remain in port. During the initial implementation of the limited withdrawal agreement, Indian and Pakistani forces probably will continue to take additional steps to increase readiness elsewhere. The momentum of India's buildup should begin to slow next week, however. Because either side could gain a substantial advantage by cheating on the agreement thei .oGr- teJJi .c bi,l iee both will continue to eye each other warily; a perception of cheating could triaaer new deployments and a new round of increased tensions. Tnn Sat-rat 11 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret Soviet Economic Indicators for 1986 1983-85a Metallurgy Energy 1976-82a 1983-85a 1986 10 20 30 40 50 60 9 February 1987 Top Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret Special Analysis Improved Economic Performance in 1986 growth were missed. X The Soviet gross national product increased by about 4 percent last year, its fastest rate in a decade, because of a new high in farm output and reduced loss of work time. Progress in industrial 25X1 modernization was slow, however, and some targets important to General Secretary Gorbachev's program to accelerate economic Farm output increased by more than 7 perce meat,-milk; and reduce .grainamper4s goals for output mix, timely deliveries, and product quality well below the 6.6-percent growth planned to support industrial modernization. The sector was repeatedly criticized for failing to meet a n cord-helped-M oscow- utedte-increased?productioroff Industry posted solid gains with annual growth of roughly 3.5 percf-up from about 2.5 percent in 1985. In the machinery sector output grew by nearly 4.5 percent-respectable but management, forced, in part, by labor shortages. Labor productivity in industry increased substantially to roughly 3 percent, as compared with about 2 percent per year between 1983 and 1985. Much of the improvement appears to have come from increased discipline, less drunkenness on the job, and more effective Some Mixed Signals energy and metal resour Some indicators of technical progress in industry show little improvement in 1'986, despite gains in volume of output. The share of steel output produced with modern technology, for example, was virtually unchanged: In the machinery sector the rate of increase in production of high-technology products was not substantially higher than in recent years. On the other hand; S~prt a -~' -41h some slow progress-,was made last Year in t r~""rfva of construction. The Soviets fell well short increase manufacturing capacity-an essential for Gorbachev's modernization campaign- despite the fastest annual growth in investment since the mid-1970s, about 7.5 percent. Although newly commissioned production facilities increased by 6 percent, this was less than half the rate planned to support the modernization program. Shortfalls were especially large in metallurgy, machine building, and energy. Progress remained slow in concentrating resources on high-priority projects, curtailing construction time, and reducing the volume of unfinished continued Top Secret 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Too Secret Per capita consumption grew by less than 1 percent in 1986, in part because legal sales of alcohol-a major component of consumer expenditures-fell by 37 percent as a result of the antialcohol campaign. Continued growth in wages, coupled with cutbacks in alcohol sales, resulted in a large increase in the amount of cash held by consumers. Despite greater availability of quality foods in both state-controlled and free markets, prices in the uncontrolled collective farm markets rose during 1986, reflecting the substantial increase in discretionary purchasing power. Gains in key components of consumer welfare-food and housing- may have earned Gorbachev some points with the populace. He can claim credit for improving Soviet economic performance despite the impact of the Chernobyl' nuclear accident and a deterioration of 15 to 20 percent in hard currency terms of trade because of the falling world price of oil Ton Secret 13 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Top Secret Sendero Luminoso Operating Regions and Government Emergency Zones Golfo de Guayaquil South Pacific Ocean Ecua Metroopgiitaa 25 % Percent of Sendero Luminoso attacks by region, Mar-Dec 1986 -Region boundary o Government emergency zones 0 150 Kilometers 0 190 miles Colombia Boundary representation is not necessarily authoritative. Brazil Top Secret Bolivia Lego Titicaca *LA PAZ 9 February 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Special Analysis k Widespread attacks last month indicate that the extremist Sendero Luminoso insurgency has recovered from personnel losses it suffered during prison riots in mid-1986. The movement continues to recruit among the Indian peasantry, extend its rural operations into new regions, and increase its terrorist strikes in Lima. Neither President Garcia nor the military has developed a counterinsurgency strate y that will stem growing violence. throughout the country. Sendero Luminoso, or Shining Path, is Peru's largest and most dangerous insurgent group. It is a tightly knit organization of ethnocentric fanatics who espouse a hybrid ideology fashioned from Marxism-Leninism, Maoism, and a rural, indigenous populism. The group seeks the total elimination of white and mestizo authority from Peru and the expulsion of all foreign influences. Although it shuns foreign sponsors and spurns alliances with other domestic radicals, it has grown from several hundred members in remote Ayacucho Department in 1980 to more than 4,000 guerrillas who operate riots in Lima's prisons. As a result Sendero Luminoso suffered a severe setback last year when some 250 members were killed during the government's suppression of is leaders slowed operations du and restructured their forces nationwide Resumption of Insurgent Attacks Lima has recently experienced a new wave of terrorist attacks, and, Sendero Luminoso plans to bombed several banks. the power failure, the guerrillas burned two textile factories and carry out a major aitaCK in a capital every week. In mid-January, according to the US Embassy, the group blacked out Lima and six coastal departments-affecting more than one-half of Peru's population-by bombing power facilities in Lima and Junin. During few days later murdered a senior member of the ruling party Late last month, the group bombed several offices of Garcia's ruling party, wounding at least seven party members. The guerrillas also killed three guards in a daylight assault on the Indian Embassy and a Meanwhile, the guerrillas continue small-scale attacks in rural areas to replenish supplies, damage economic infrastructure, and kill local authorities. Embassy reporting indicates the group is expanding Ton Secret continued Top Secret 25X1 25X1 2 Al Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 rapidly into Puno and Cusco Departments in the south. 25X1 he insurgents are establishing a new military 25X1 front in Puno-which borders Bolivia-and logistic center and safehaven. 25X1 The Government Response Garcia has been unwilling to extend to new areas of heavy guerrilla activity emergency powers that would enable the military to take over the counterinsurgency effort from the police. He apparently believes such a move would call attention to the declining security situation. Peru's three police forces, however, lack the manpower, weapons, transport, communications equipment, and intelligence resources to combat the insurgency effectively Even in areas where re in control, according to the military generally reacts to 25X1 insurgent actions and provides defense for larger towns, rather than patrolling aggressively. The rugged mountain regions where the insurgency thrives pose special tactical problems for the Army, particularly because the military is deficient in high-altitude helicopters. 25X1 Garcia has often said that the underlying causes of the insurgency are poverty and inequity, but neither he nor the military is yet committed to a comprehensive counterinsurgency program that emphasizes civic action, psychological operations, or rural development. Sendero Luminoso leaders, however, apparently recognize the potential effectiveness of government civic action programs; they are increasingly targeting persons and facilities associated with rural development efforts Rural insurgent attacks and urban terrorism are likely to increase this year. The guerrillas probably will continue to avoid major clashes with the military, preferring small-unit attacks and high-profile sabotage operations that pose little risk of a substantial setback. Moreover, the extension of Sendero Luminoso activities into new rural areas will further stretch the government's already strapped counterinsurgency Peru-particularly Lima-already is experiencing one of the highest rates of terrorism in the world, and the likelihood of foreign casualties, even if incurred incidentally, is rising. Attacks on foreign targets, and assassinations of high-level civilian and military leaders, would put increased pressure on Garcia to adopt tougher counterinsurgency Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1 I oo aecrei Top Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/26: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100320001-1