NATIONAL INELLIGENCE DAY

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
21
Document Creation Date: 
December 27, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 25, 2012
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
January 6, 1987
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2.pdf691.63 KB
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 imerniTzr of ?.01.? vw...1 co. Intelligence 25X1 National Intelligence Daily Tuesday 6 January 1987 Top Secret 25X1 CPAS MD 87-004JX 25X1 6 January 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Contents 25X1 USSR-Afghanistan: High-Level Visit 1 25X1 Syria: Assad Reins In His Lieutenants Spain-NATO: Formula for Military Participation Cyprus: Turks Resettling Greek Areas Notes 3 4 5 Vietnam: Leadership Changes Delayed 6 25X1 France-West Germany: Meeting on European Defense In Brief 7 8 Special Analyses Guatemala: Coping With Economic Problems Tanzania: Mwinyi's First Year 10 12 Top Secret 6 January 1987 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2X1 USSR- High-Level Visit AFGHANISTAN: The visit to Kabul of Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze and International Department Chief Dobrynin is intended to underline the seriousness of the national reconciliation policies just announced by Afghan leader Na jib, but the two may also be there to ensure Afghan compliance with Moscow's new tactics and to assess the effectiveness of overall Soviet strategy. The visit follows the Afghfparty plenum, at which 'a unilateral tease-fire and measures or achieving national reconciliation were announced.) 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Comment: This is the highest level Soviet delegation to visit since the invasion. The visit is undoubtedly intended to reinforce at home and abroad the impression of Soviet seriousness as Moscow prepares for UN-mediated peace talks in Geneva next month. The Soviets probably hope this visit and Najib's initiatives will put pressure on Pakistan to offer concessions while absolving the Soviet-Afghan side in advance of any failure in the negotiations. 25X1 Shevardnadze and Dobrynin may also be charged with providing a 25X1 firsthand assessment of the Afghan situation to the Soviet leadership. Moscow continues to insist on its original goals in Afghanistan, and Najib's speech at the plenum offered no departure from either continued ties to Moscow or the primacy of the Communist Party, although the Soviets are evidently using more flexible tactics for achieving these goals. Shevardnadze and Dobrynin are also likely to impress upon Afghan leaders Moscow's unwillingness to tolerate resistance to the expanded program bringing nonparty members into the government. 25X1 25X1 By suggesting that Soviet troops might leave, however, Moscow may actually reduce the stability of the Afghan regime. Morale in Kabul is low, and resistance leader Gulbuddin has offered amnesty to regime figures who seek his protection Top Secret 1 6 January 1987 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 R Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret SYRIA: Assad Reins In His Lieutenants Syrian President Assad is dealing cautiously with problems sparked by Syrian involvement in terrorism and with growing rivalries among his closest advisers. Uk.senior-Syr, iair-Ffirtrig tnistf e fi - S'anlaaesrlast. wz..4.K-Af Assad apparently is delaying further changes in key security and military positions while he assesses the impact of recent reassignment3 No promotions or reassignments have been -111.nounced since the ouster of two intelligence chiefs last month set off rumors that dramatic personnel shifts were imminent. Assad may believe that the shock waves generated by his recent firing of the heads of the General Intelligence Directorate and the Political Security Office will be sufficient to reduce infighting for the time being Top Secret 3 6 January 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 SPAIN-NATO: Formula for Military Participation Top Secret 25X1 Spain may be considering a formula for military participation in NATO?that would include acceptance of commitments beyond its borders?partially to improve its bargaining position in talks with the US. 25X1 According to a newspaper in Madrid with close ties to the 25X1 government, the plan would stop short of formal Spanish integration into the Alliance's military structure but would give NATO commanders operational control of some Spanish forces in wartime. Under the formula, US forces in Spain would be an element of Madrid's contribution to the Alliance. The US Embassy believes that the article in the press almost certainly originated with senior Spanish defense officials and probably represents an attempt to gauge the Spanish public's reaction to such a plan. In response to attacks by the opposition parties, Foreign Minister Ordonez subsequently denied publicly that Spanish troops might be stationed outside the country, but he avoided defining the nature of the military ties that Madrid plans to negotiate with NATO. 25X1 Comment: The timing of the press report may be linked to the resumption of Spanish-US negotiations next month on the status of US bases in Spain. Madrid believes its membership in NATO should make possible .a reduction in the US military presence in Spain. The Spaniards are almost certainly attempting to reinforce their bargaining position by suggesting that their forces will be closely tied to, although not formally a part of, the Alliance's military structure. Madrid may think that this formula would support its desire for a major maritime role in the area of the Strait of Gibraltar because it would imply that Spanish forces would be subordinated to maor NATO naval commanders in wartime. TOD Secret 4 6 January 1987 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Too Secret Yugo. Bulgaria E3,rch Sea ?117- Greece ' - _Crete , 5 L ibya ---------L1--Q's".;,- 0 Egypt Mediterranean Sea Boundary representation is cot necessarily authoritative. *ANKARA Turkey NICOSI* ..--- yprus Lebano Isra 30 Kilometers 30 Miles Jordj. 300 Kilo eters 3op Miles Turkish-Cypriot ''-eiclministered area I NICOSIA e7 j ?4,KV, NUN Buffer, 0 / - 9'...."'-i',41 ?,....., 4 _,---- ,..,, AreareOhtrolied by--"?- '7r :finis /Go Verrirheyik.,!.--,C?Z-- ' Mediterranean Sea Western Sovereign Base Area (U.K.) Famagusta (4 709255 (A04466) 1-87 Top Secret 6 January 1987 Mediterranean Sea 4% Turkish-Cypriotoiadmin .1644 0 Varo,sha 0 Greekzeeitlemen (now abandont-ch \ 1 Kilometer .5 1 Mile Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret CYPRUS: Turks Resettling Greek Areas Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash may move to strengthen the independent status of the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" by slowly resettling Varosha, the formerly Greek Cypriot resort area in Famagusta. Denktash has long thought Greek intransigence toward UN-sponsored negotiations left him free to pursue his objectives, which included reopening Varosha and gaining international recognition for the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus," without being criticized?even in the US., Denktash has since 1974 repeatedly threatened to resettle Varosha. In recent months, Turkish Cypriot officials have contacted foreigners who owned property in Varosha apparently to urge them to register their claims or risk losing their property. In addition, as many as 200 students from the Turkish mainland have taken up residence in a newly restored hotel in Varosha. They may be military dependents of Turkish troops who have been using two other hotels there since 1975. Ankara has discouraged Denktash's aggressive moves, partly because it believes his acceptance of the latest UN proposal has given the Turks the diplomatic high ground, but it might tolerate a slow infiltration of Varosha. Turkish opposition leaders have recently criticized the Ozal government for not standing up for Turkish rights abroad, especially after the EC's recent rejection of freedom of movement for Turkish labor. Since Turkey's recent border clash with Greece, Ankara may not be so inclined to restrain Denktash. Comment: Denktash may believe that the deadlock in the UN's efforts for a settlement provides an opportunity to give further legitimacy to the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus." His current actions follow a pattern similar to that which preceded his unilateral declaration of independence, which he also threatened for years before acting in November 1983. Greece and Greek Cypriots have tacitly accepted a Turkish troop presence in the two hotels for years, but they are highly emotional about their rights in Varosha and would be likely to react vociferously to further settlement. In that event, they would probably turn to the international community for support and blame the US for not reining in the Turks. 5 Top Secret 6 January 1987 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R0001000400011 VIETNAM: Leadership Changes Delayed Hanoi announced Sunday that a nationwide election for a new National Assembly will be held in April. When it convenes in June, new Assembly will choose successors to Truong Chinh, Chairman of the Council of State, and Pham Van Dong, Chairman of the Council of Ministers. Chinh and Dong, along with party elder Le Duc Tho, lost their Politburo positions at the party congress last month. The current National Assembly was expected to choose successors to Chinh and Dong at a session late last month domment: The apparent success of the conservatives indicates they emain strong even after the party congress strengthened advocates of economic reform, led by new party chief Nguyen Van Linh, at the expense of traditionalists, led by Chinh. The delay creates an unprecedented situation in which the top government leaders do not sit on the Politburo and suggests that Linh will encounter strong opposition to his reform agenda. 6 Top Secret 6 January 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret FRANCE-WEST GERMANY: Meeting on European Defense President Mitterrand has requested a meeting with former West German Chancellor Schmidt to discuss European defense, according to a US diplomatic source who thinks they will probably meet early next month. Mitterrand has rejected some of Schmidt's ideas in the past?including a proposal in 1984 for the formation of a 30-division Franco-German army that would ultimately reduce the need for US forces in Europe?and relations between the two have been cool. Comment: Mitterrand would be unlikely to endorse any new proposal for a Franco-German army, but both leaders may issue a statement emphasizing the need for greater European defense cooperation. They may also reiterate their view that such US initiatives as SDI and the proposal to eliminate all nuclear ballistic missiles are ill conceived. Mitterrand probably thinks that his meeting with the most prominent moderate West German Social Democrat would improve the fortunes of Schmidt's faction after the SPD's expected loss in the coming West German national election. He probably also believes that such a meeting will help him to reassert his role in French foreign policy? an area in which Prime Minister Chirac has grabbed the initiative. Mitterrand has no interest in undercutting the government of Chancellor Kohl, but he may believe that such a meeting would put pressure on Kohl to support French-sponsored bilateral defense projects that have become bogged down. Top Secret 7 6 January 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret In Brief East Asia Middle East ? South Korean Defense Ministry preparing letter accepting SDI participation, according to US Embassy... likely to hedge for fear Soviets will threaten boycott of 1988 Olympics... bureaucratic infighting under way over which agencies will participate. ? About 400 Chinese students burned party newspapers at Beijing University to protest press distortions of demonstrations ... students quiet elsewhere... authorities expediting students' trips home for semester break to defuse further activity. ? China's coal exports grew by 30 percent last year to almost 10 million tons, or $400 million... Beijing hopes to reach 16 million tons this year... may cut into US market in East Asia. ? Iran named former Revolutionary Guardsman Ambassador to Lebanon ... recall of last envoy demanded in 1983 for meddling in domestic affairs... reflects Iran's desire to better monitor increased radical Shia in Beirut and southern Lebanon. ? Lebanese ArmyvOlashed with security units loyal to President yesterday in Christian enclave east of Beirut, saye 25X1 .. likely to aggravate violence among Christians. Europe ? French Government resisting union demands for wage increases ... facing demonstrations and brief shutdowns of public services today ... still smarting from defeat on university reform, likely to hold firm unless protests widespread. ? Leaders of major Pr t parties in Northern Ireland appealing to Queen for referendum on.10-Irish Accord ... UK will probably refuse... parties may use refusal to justify support for civil disobedience. continued Top Secret 8 6 January 1987 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret Amazon GpIto de Guayaquil Brazil South Pacific Ocean \pm' r e ? ? 300 Kilometers 3100 Miles 4 y ? I 11 "N( Titicaca Lego *L A PAZ Bolivia nBc7nnodcaz repirye: ion sari Unththotrihaive. Chile Top Secret 6 January 1987 709260 (A01292) 1-87 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret Americas ? Major gas find in southeastern Peru . . . if estimates accurate, would boost reserves from lowest to third highest in South America... may offset impact of dwindling oil reserves. ? Torrential rains in western Cuba damaged, destroyed estimated 25 percent of tobacco crop... may lose $13 million in hard currency exports to West... rains provide limited relief from current drought. 25X1 25X1 25X1 South Asia Liberation Tigers, the most powerful Sri Lankan Tamil guerrilla group, announced control of civil administration in north on 1 January ... formed new political party, probably to woo northern civilians... Colombo cutting fuel shipments in retaliation. Top Secret 9 6 January 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret Guatemala: Economic Indicators, 1981-86 Note scale changes Real GDP Growth Percent 2 Budget Deficit as a Share of GDP Percent -4 1981 82 83 84 85 86a Real GDP Per Capita Index: 1981=100 100 ? 80 60 40 20 _ -8 1981 82 83 84 85 86a Inflation Percent 40 30 20 1981 82 83 84 85 se 1981 82 83 84 85 86a Coffee Export Earnings Million US $ 1981 82 83 84 85 86a a Estimated. 311510 1.87 Too Secret 6 January 1987 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 ' Top Secret Special Analysis GUATEMALA: Coping With Economic Problems Despite an improved financial situation and progress in restraining inflation, the fundamental problems of Guatemala's economy remain unsolved. The prospects for growth this year are limited, and uncertainties about exports, budget problems, and private investment will probably lead to a further decline in living standards that will undercut President Cerezo's popularity. The government has been able to reduce its fiscal deficit and stabilize land strengthen the national currencyeaGcorziinQ.1a1be-La-Erabassy% Since July, the rate of inflation has fallen considerably, although inflation averaged 35 percent for the year?nearly double the rate in 1985. The economy failed to grow last year. however, and per capita income has fallen 20 percent since 1981. Successful negotiations with private banks cut Guatemala's debt service by more than one-third last year. Cerezo failed to secure an accord with the IMF, however, because of disagreement over the timing of tax reform and the establishment of a new, unified exchange rate4aeeeref+ng-tertIS-fm1Tassy1eporttm. The scheduled debt service of $500 million this year will swallow 20 percent of the government's budget and strain the economy further. Political Repercussions These policies have provoked neither strong criticism nor public unrest, largely because Cerezo has enjoyed a honeymoon as Guatemala's first civilian President in nearly 20 years. The return to democracy helped him win promises of more than $300 million in development assistance and trade credits during a five-nation European tour in Octobe?ascoLdineert1S-7711178my-Fepogiagr By emphasizing consensus and compromise, Cerezo has partially allayed concerns that he would embark on a more radical course. Businessmen also believe that higher taxes on exports last year and increased scrutiny of foreign trade transactions portend greater government interference in the economy, aceording4es.Embassy4.eper4ing. continued TOD Secret 10 6 January 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret Cerezo has yet to face substantial opposition from an increasingly active labor sector. The government's failure to ensure that both public- and private-sector workers will get salary increases early this year could lead, however, to labor unrest. Outlook Trade and budget problems, together with declining investor confidence in the private sector, will probably limit economic growth this year to 1 percent; and foreign exchange pressures that had eased in 1986 are likely to start rising again. Embassy reporting suggests that a projected fall in coffee receipts, which account for one-half of the country's export earnings, will intensify balance-of-payments problems. Declining tax revenues, which will probably result this year from lower export earnings and the phasing out of certain taxes, will leave the government's budget seriously underfunded. Moreover, foreign exchange shortages are likely to reduce imports and make debt servicing more difficult. A continued decline in living standards and the increased risk of popular unrest will tempt Cerezo to turn to populist policies and expanded social programs to placate the lower classes and maintain order. His failure to take tough stabilization measures, however, could lead to even more acute economic problems and weaken his standing with all segments of Guatemalan society. In the best case, stable coffee prices and continued success in debt rescheduling might allow Cerezo to enact new economic reforms or policies to stimulate business activity. Then, in the absence of severe foreign exchange shortages or budgetary shortfalls, the government might be able to maintain its progress in combating inflation. In that event, economic growth this year could be as high as 2 percent. Top Secret 11 6 January 1987 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Top Secret Special Analysis 25X1 -25X1 TANZANIA: Mwinyi's First Year President All Hassan Mwinyi has taken some initial steps to reform Tanzania's stricken socialist economy during his first year in office. He must yet contend with his still-influential predecessor, Julius Nyerere, who is obstructing any effort to move away from hisocialist system. Mwinyi's decision to intervene in Mozambique's civil war and endemic government infighting also threaten to undermine his efforts to proceed with economic reform. Since taking office in November 1985, Mwinyi has negotiated an accord with the IMF, rescheduled international debts, and enacted a realistic five-year economic recovery plan. Nyerere, who retains the party chairmanship, has resisted these economic reforms because he sees them as undermining his cherished socialist legacy. The Mozambican Morass In November, pressure from the Frontline States and from Nyerere apparently pushed Mwinyi to agree to send troops to Mozambique to help fight the South African-backed RENAMO rebels. The President is mindful of Nyerere's economically disastrous military intervention in Uganda to oust dictator Idi Amin in 1978-79. He also reportedly fears the costs of intervention in Mozambique will lead to abrogation of the IMF agreement, linchpin of his economic reform program. The Domestic Scene The pragmatic Mwinyi I wrung the concessions on economic reform from his former mentor. Mwinyi's continued Top Secret 12 6 January 1987 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 Top Secret efforts have provoked controversy between like-mind d pragmatists and Nyerere's loyalists in the government and party, hich has slowed implementation of reform measures Asa result, there is growing disappointment a-mong those who expected that new economic policies and fresh aid infusions would bring about a quick and dramatic rise in living standards Mwinyi has not followed up his popular campaign to eliminate corruption by prosecuting implicated government officials, largely because many suspects have direct links to Nyerere. The decision has cost Mwinyi some domestic support in recent months. He is compensating by taking up several less volatile issues, including wildlife poach i ng,asGor44fig-tcrth'elIS-Ernbassy, Outlook If Tanzanian troops become bogged down in a long and inconclusive struggle in Mozambique, the costs, coupled with Nyerere's obstructionism on economic affairs, may jeopardize Dar es Salaam's ability to meet IMF standards for review of the standby agreement early this year. And when the decision to send troops to Mozambique becomes widely known, it is likely to be unpopular with most Tanzanians who believe deep-seated economic problems must be solved first. Nyerere almost certainly will continue to slow the dissolution of socialist structures, even if he makes good on his promise to resign the party chairmanship this year. In any case, Mwinyi probably will not regain the political momentum he enjoyed last summer at the height of his anticorruption drive. Top Secret 13 6 January 1987 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/12/03: CIA-RDP88T00659R000100040001-2 25X1