NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 28 MARCH 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200010067-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 67
• Publication Date: March 28, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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,,,.?~~~f~. Director of
7 ~ ~, Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
28 March 1984
map-6eV~ `~
CPAS N/D 84-o73JX 25X1
? 28 Marc 1
~opY ? 8 5
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Top Secret
Contents
Iraq-Iran: Iraqi Attack on Oil Tanker ...................................... 1
Libya: Preparations for Military Parade :................................. 3
EI Salvador: Election Results ........:......:.................:......:........... 4
USSR: Chernenko's Health ...................................................... 6 ~ 25X1
UK-Persian Gulf: Contingency Planning ................................
Kuwait: Bombing Suspects Sentenced ................................. 9
Colombia: Successful Antinarcotics Operation ...................... 10
Angola: Insurgent Attack ........................................................ 11
China-Pakistan: Delivery of Missile Boats .............................. 11
Suriname-French Guiana: Exiles Thwarted ........................ 12
USSR: Industrial Performance ................................................ 13
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IRAQ-IRAN: Iraqi Attack on Oil Tanker
Iraqi Super Etendard aircraft reportedly attacked two ships
southwest of Khark Island yesterday. Fighting remains at a low level
northeast of A/ Basrah as both sides reinforce their positions.
A Greek oil tanker was hit during the attack yesterday near Khark
Island. The attack occurred in the area where Iraqi helicopters and a
missile boat had attacked several ships on Saturday. Iraq also claims
its aircraft hit an oil pumping station near Khorramabad yesterday.
Comment: Spot oil prices probably will increase as a result of the
attack. This is the first confirmed attack on an oil tanker, and charter
and insurance rates for shipments to Khark Island also are likely to go
up. The station probably services a domestic refinery and was not
connected to export facilities.
Other Military Activity
A new Iranian HAWK missile site northeast of the Majnoon Islands
is operational
pontoon bridge remained unoccupied
they are building three causeways from the
western edge of~ the marsh toward the islands
Comment: The activation of the new HAWK site will threaten Iraqi
air operations over the marsh. Iran may be able to make the other
HAWK sites northeast of AI Basrah o erational soon b transferrin
missile launchers from other fronts.
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,,_ .. ;IVledit~rrane~n'S~a
Tunisia
. ' ~ Beninah
,~ Airfield
Algeria
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scuv ?
missile abraq
training
Misratah we- /~, Airfield
Airfield Bengha I~
28 March 1984
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LIBYA: Preparations for Military Parade
on Egypt.
Military activity in Tobruk appears to be related to the annual
military parade today rather than to preparations fora "Unity March"
where a tank
city's harbor appeared to be unloading people onto buses.
battalion has been taken out of storage. Aflag-draped ship in the
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for offensive action against Egypt or Sudan. 25X1
aircraft remain dispersed in the east and that some have just 25X1
been dispersed at the airfield at Misratah in the west. There is some
Scud missile training at Benghazi. 25X1
Libyan forces, however, do not appear to be on alert or mobilizin
Libya. A military parade is traditionally held, and Libyan leader
Qadhafi often makes major policy speeches. Tanks and other
armored vehicles normally are assembled from several installations,
Comment: Today is the anniversary~of the British evacuation from
and there is usually an aerial demonstration by combat aircraft.
originally scheduled for today
The current preparations are consistent with those observed in
previous years. There is a chance, however, that they also are
designed to mask the "Unity March" toward the Egyptian border
The dispersal of aircraft at Misratah, along with other defensive
measures in the south and east, indicates the Libyans fear an attack
by the US as much as one by Egypt. The missile training probably is
part of the annual training cycle for the Army, which normally begins
intensify their activities against President Nimeiri's regime.
In his speech, Qadhafi is likely to attack the US for
"provocations" in the area to support his assertions that Libya was
not responsible for the bombing of Khartoum. He will claim that
Sudanese dissidents were behind the attack, and he will urge them to
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With 90 percent of the votes counted, Christian Democrat Duarte
maintains a substantial lead over ultrarightist D'Aubuisson.
Duarte has 45 percent of the vote, while D'Aubuisson has
29 percent, according to the US Embassy. Conciliationist candidate 25X1
Guerrero remains in third place with 19 percent.
The Embassy reports the number of valid votes is likely to come
close to the 1.3 million cast in the election in 1982. It estimates that
the insurgents stopped only about 2 percent of the vote from being
cast. A press report claims, however, that as much as 20 percent of
the electorate may have been prevented from votin because of 25X1
problems with.the new electoral system.
International reaction has been generally balanced. Most foreign
reporters have commented favorably on the massive turnout but are
critical of the widespread procedural disorder. There have been few
charges of fraud, and so far no parties in the election have challenged 25X1
Comment: Duarte is in a strong position to bargain for support
from Guerrero and others in a runoff against D'Aubuisson. He will
be aided by the large turnout and the positive foreign reactions to
the election. The armed forces were largely neutral in the campaign,
and they probably will remain so during the second round.
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General Secretary Chernenko has maintained an active schedule
since he assumed office last month, but reports of health problems
persist.
The 72-year-old Chernenko has appeared in public on several
occasions, meeting political leaders from Yugoslavia, West Germany,
and East Germany. He also has attended two conferences of Soviet
party officials in Moscow. Ethiopian leader Mengistu expects to meet
Chernenko later this month, and the Soviet leader reportedly has
agreed to visit several East European capitals this spring
To counter the widespread perception that he is a feeble and
transitional leader, Chernenko probably hopes to maintain an active
public schedule. His age and health, however, are likely to require,
eriods of ublic inactivit or vacations of several weeks or more.
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UK-PERSIAN GULF: Contingency Planning
British officials in London and Oman say the Ministry of Defense
has decided to station a Royal Navy minesweeping force in the
Mediterranean to be closer to the Persian Gulf if it is needed there.
The US defense attache in London also reports that four
minesweepers and a support ship are being sent to the
Mediterranean. The ships are equipped for mine hunting and
sweeping. The movement is being treated as a routine training
exercise to begin this week but with no terminal date set and no
publicity.
Planners in the Royal Navy say that having the ships in the
Mediterranean will reduce their transit time through the Suez Canal to
the Strait of Hormuz to between 17 and 24 days. British officials say
that contingency planning to deal with the possible mining of the
Strait and other threats is the subject of intense activity in the Ministry
The US Embassy in Muscat was told last month by the British
Ambassador that Oman had requested a British commitment to send
a minesweeping force, if necessary.. London reportedly replied that, if
it concludes that such a force is required, it could be in the area in 32
to 42 days.
The UK has also indicated that Oman might be expected to pay
for the operation in the Strait. British officials, however, say that, since
the decision to move the force to the Mediterranean was made
unilaterally, the Omanis would not be expected to pay at this time.
British naval forces in the Indian Ocean are at a normal peacetime
level of four warships and support units. Two frigates are scheduled
to arrive this week to relieve the ships currently in the area.
Comment: The UK remains concerned that Western forces not
take sudden action in the Gulf. It will want continued close political
consultations with the US, especially on contingency planning. If Iran
were to try to close the Gulf, London would look to Washington to
take the lead in any military response. Since late last year, the French
have been preparing contingency plans for the deployment of a
similar minesweeping force.
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KUWAIT: Bombing Suspects Sentenced
Kuwait is concerned about reprisals by Iran, following the
sentencing yesterday of those convicted in the bombing of the US
Embassy and other targets last December.
Press reports state that six of the 25 men tried were sentenced
to death and seven to life imprisonment. Three of those sentenced
to death are still at large. Five men were acquitted and the others
received sentences ranging from five to 15 years.
uwait, however, has been careful not to implicate Iran or the
Dawa Party publicly in the bombings.
Comment: Iran may intensify subversive and terrorist activities
against Kuwait in reprisal for the death sentences. Tehran has
threatened to assassinate 10 members of the ruling Sabah family for
every execution. The Amir will review the death sentences before they
Kuwaiti authorities fear that executions would create martyrs for
the increasingly restless Shia community in Kuwait. They also are
nervous about imprisoning Dawa Party members. however. because
of concern about more kidnapings.
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COLOMBIA: Successful Antinarcotics Operation
The recent destruction of a major cocaine processing facility by
the National Police in the southeastern Department of Caqueta reflects
their increased willingness to challenge directly the country's powerful 25X1
drug traffickers.
Members of the Special Antinarcotics Police seized more than
8.5 metric tons of cocaine, 1.5 metric tons of cocaine base, six
aircraft, and one helicopter, according to the US Drug Enforcement
Administration. They arrested more than 40 people in the operation,
which was conducted from 10 to 16 March. In addition, 44 buildings
and six airstrips were discovered within a 30-kilometer radius of the
main cocaine processing facility located along the Rio Taurare.
Comment: This is the largest cocaine processing facility ever
discovered, and it underscores the impunity with which drug
traffickers operate in Colombia. The absence of any coca fields
nearby suggests the facility was used to process Peruvian and
Bolivian coca. Colombian police speculate that the facility had been
in operation for at least two years.
Caqueta Department is a traditional insurgent stronghold. This is
the first time that the police have been willing to risk a potential clash
with guerrillas operating in the area to carry out a drug raid.
Any real change in Colombia's antinarcotics policy, however,
depends on President Betancur's action on several key issues. These
include agreeing to implement a herbicide eradication campaign,
ratifying the treaty with the US designed to facilitate the seizure of
financial assets of drug traffickers, and enforcing the US-Colombian
Extradition Treaty.
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0 200
Kilometers
8ountlary repro enfation is
not naceaearily authoritative.
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Congo
BRAZZAVILLE
~~~u .Sumba-'
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? ea eportedly captured
by l1N/TA forces
=Top Secret
UNITA Claims
''Control
~; Influence
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ANGOLA: Insurgent Attack
UNITA announced yesterday that a 5,000-man force captured
Sumbe, a provincial capital on the coast. The insurgents say they
killed several hundred government troops and about 100 foreign
nationals, including Cubans, Soviets, Bulgarians, and Italians. They
also claim to have captured several other foreign workers. Luanda
acknowledges the attack but asserts that government forces repelled
the insurgents.
Comment: The attack on Sumbe probably took government
forces by surprise because recent fighting has been around the
eastern town of Luao and in the north-central areas of the country.
The major attack on the provincial capital-the first such operation
by UNITA-probably was planned to mark the anniversary last Friday
of the founding of UNITA and to help persuade the government to
negotiate. Although UNITA's claims of government casualties inflicted
may be exaggerated, even the temporary loss of Sumbe would
harden the government's demand that South Africa cease all aid to
UNITA before Cuba withdraws its troops from Angola.
CHINA-PAKISTAN: Delivery of Missile Boats
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SURINAME-FRENCH GUIANA: Exiles Thwarted
Army Commander Bouterse probably will use the arrest of
Surinamese exiles in French Guiana as proof of his frequent charges
that opponents are preparing an invasion. French authorities arrested
16 armed men at a camp near Cayenne on Saturday and expelled
them to Curacao, in the Netherlands Antilles, according to the US
Consulate in Martinique. The men reportedly have ties to the Council
for the Liberation of Suriname, a croup of Surinamese exit
Comment: The arrests deal a serious blow to the exiles' plans
and are likely to have ended any prospects in the near term for
insurgent operations against the Bouterse regime. The small and
poorly armed group probably was not a major threat to Bouterse, but
its existence-which was well known in Paramaribo-gave credence
to his invasion warnings. It also provided him with an excuse to
maintain a curfew and other repressive measures. The arrests,
however, are likely to ease Bouterse's concerns and to help Prime
Minister Udenhout' f carry out limited democratic reforms.
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Soviet industrial growth in January and February was at an
average annual rate of about 5.5 percent, about the same as during
the same period last year. Most sectors did well, but production of oil
and related products was lower, primarily because of a drop in output
in the West Siberian oilfields. In addition, the growth rate in ferrous
metals production was onl half that achieved in the comparable
period in 1983.~~
Comment: After adjustment for additional working days
compared with the first two months of 1983-an extra working day in
January and 29 February-industrial growth so far this year actually
may be between 4 and 4.5 percent. Although it is too early to forecast
industrial growth for all of 1984, the results so far suggest that
continuation of the moderate annual growth-about 3.5 percent-
achieved last year may be possible. On the other hand, difficulties
in the ferrous metals branch could hold back growth in construction
and machinery production.
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