NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 7 FEBRUARY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020023-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: February 7, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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M Director of FOP Central
y ' S Intelligence
0 National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
7 February 1984
February 1984
Copy
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Contents
Lebanon: Situation Deteriorating
Nicaragua: Reaction to Air Attacks
Egypt: Strategy Toward Arab States
Canada-US: The Acid Rain Issue ..
Western Europe: Space Launch Program
Tunisia: Bread Price Increases
Special Analyses
Yugoslavia: Prospects for Terrorism at Sarajevo
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LEBANON: Situation Deteriorating
The Army is unlikely to quell the fighting that has spread to West
Beirut, unless a political agreement is reached with President
Gemayel's Syrian-backed opponents.
Druze and Palestinian artillery positions southeast of Beirut
continue to shell Army positions in East and West Beirut. Fighting
spread yesterday from Beirut's southern suburbs into predominantly
Sunni West Beirut, despite a 24-hour curfew imposed by the Army,
suggest the Army may try to seal off West
Beirut from the southern suburbs-possibly along the Corniche al
Mazraah-using troops brought in from north of the city.
US Marine positions at Beirut airport came under artillery fire
yesterday, and US naval units replied with gunfire and airstrikPs
The press continues to report that many Lebanese soldiers are
refusing to fire against their coreligionists in the Shia Amal militia.
Amal leader Barri's call for Shia officers and soldiers to lay down their
arms is said to have stemmed from his anger at apparent random
shelling of the southern suburbs by the Army.
An Army officer says that all Shia soldiers in the 3rd Brigade have
deserted. The brigade's Christian and Sunni soldiers have retreated
to the presidential palace.
Comment: As the fighting continues, defections and passive
resistance are eroding the Army's strength. Army shelling of West and
South Beirut and the absence of effective leadership by the
government are likely to sap Army morale further. The Army probably
will be unable to restore government control of West and South Beirut
by force.
If the Army fails to restore order, Gemayel has little choice
beyond selecting a prime minister who is acceptable to his
opponents. Syria's price for allowing such a government to be formed
is likely to be abrogation of the agreement of 17 May.
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Recent Nicaraguan Insurgent Sea and Air Attacks
Chinandega N i cla rag u a
Aposentillo
Honduras
Weapons depots
destroyed
MANAGUA*
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Boundary representation is
not ne(essarily auth,itative
7 February 1984
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The Sandinistas' call on Friday for a meeting of the UN Security
Council and their decision to delay preparations for elections are
designed to dramatize their concern over the largest insurgent air
Officials of the Nicaraguan Democratic Force claim responsibilit
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for an air attack late last week in Chinandega Department
Managua's official protest
to Tegucigalpa stated that six aircraft from Honduras attacked a
civilian communications site near the Casita Volcano on Thursday,
destroying an antenna and several fuel tanks. Satellite photography
confirms that the transmitter building was damaged and that at least
one antenna-and probably two others-was toppled.
Anti-Sandinista leaders also announced that a joint air-and-sea
raid on Friday destroyed several weapons depots at the northwestern
port of Aposentillo. Managua claims that on the same day five aircraft
attacked a border post near Potosi.
these locations also have been associated with arms deliveries to the
Salvadoran insurgents.
The Sandinistas, at the Security Council session on Friday,
accused Honduras and the US of collaborating to undermine the
Contadora peace process. In addition, Council of State President
Nunez announced that debate on the proposed electoral law will be
postponed until the facts about the raid are clarified. Junta
Coordinator Ortega indicates, however, that the attacks will not delay
Comment: The anti-Sandinistas probably hope that by hitting
these targets they can discredit Managua's claims that Salvadoran
guerrilla groups no longer reside in Nicaragua. The attacks may
prompt the Sandinistas to improve their air defenses, in part by
obtaining additional equipment that may require more Cuban military
The delay in considering the electoral bill appears to be a tactic to
increase international pressure on the US and Honduras to stop
insurgent attacks. The Sandinistas apparently still intend to announce
a date for elections on 21 February, the 50th anniversary of
revolutionary leader Sandino's death. They have invited foreign heads
of state to the ceremonies, and they probably will want to use the
event to show they have made political progress.
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A US military attache in Moscow, who yesterday observed
Defense Minister Ustinov leave his limousine and walk into a VIP clinic
near the Kremlin, reports that Ustinov appeared ill. According to a
Western press story, Soviet officials privately told Western diplomats
yesterday that the cancellation on Saturday of Ustinov's official visit
to India was the result of his illness and not that of General Secretary
And ro ov.
IThe US Embassy reports that
no unusual activity was observed at party headquarters on Sunday or
yesterday, and that Moscow radio and television were following
normal patterns of activity.
Comment: The Soviets clearly want others to believe that Ustinov
is ailing. Their failure to say so openly, however, will continue to
heighten speculation about Andropov's condition.
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EGYPT: Strategy Toward Arab States
Several middle-level officials in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry say
Cairo has no intention of campaigning aggressively to regain its
membership in the Arab League at the Arab summit next month in
Riyadh, because the non-Arab Muslims who helped Egypt gain
readmission to the Islamic Conference will be absent. The officials
believe that, if no action is taken on Egypt's membership at the
summit, Iraq, Morocco, and perhaps Jordan may break the "Arab
consensus" and restore formal relations.
Comment: President Mubarak and his senior advisers may not
share these views and could attempt the kind of all-out diplomatic
effort that succeeded at the Islamic summit in Casablanca. Senior
Egyptian leaders have become increasingly hopeful about renewing
ties with moderate Arabs, following Egypt's success at Casablanca
and PLO chief Arafat's visit to Cairo. Mubarak's visit to Morocco
this week-the first by an Egyptian president since the signing of
the Camp David Accords-and his meeting next week with Jordan's
King Hussein in the US will tend to reinforce this optimism.
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The Acid Rain Issue
`tic Airstream
Greenland
(Denmark)
Nov
scof
HAITI 1
Region containing lakes sensitive
to acid precipitation
Surface wind flowa
a Based on July resultant surface winds
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7 February 1984
J CARAGUA
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COSTA RICA ,.5.
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Ottawa announced yesterday that it will host a conference next
month on acid rain, which will be attended by eight West European
environment ministers. A spokesman for Canadian Environment
Minister Caccia said the meeting was arranged in part to maintain
pressure on the US to conclude an acid rain treaty with Canada.
Caccia termed Washington's failure last month to move beyond
funding more acid rain research "a serious setback."
Comment: The conference is part of the government's campaign
to focus media attention on the acid rain problem. When an expected
breakthrough in negotiations with the US last fall did not occur,
Canadian officials apparently decided to sharpen their public criticism
of US policy. Canadian pressure is likely to intensify this year. The
Liberal Party is preparing for an election, and it will try to call public
attention on both sides of the border to what it regards as US
intransigence.
WESTERN EUROPE: Space Launch Program
The European Space Agency has had to delay until 28 February
the launch of the eighth Ariane-1 space launch vehicle, which is to
carry the Intelsat VF-8 geosynchronous communications satellite. The
launch has been repeatedly delayed by arcing problems with the
satellite's maritime communications antenna, and this has caused
Intelsat to cancel the launch of Intelsat VF-9. The VF-9 will undergo
extensive testing, and a US domestic communications satellite will be
launched instead-the first US payload to be put in orbit by a foreign
Comment: Arcing problems have developed with all the Intelsat V
series satellites carrying the maritime antenna, and the launch of the
VF-7 recently was postponed for more than a month to permit
modifications. The satellite was launched in mid-October, but the
arcing problems recurred after it was in orbit. The European Space
Agency also has been having problems with the third stage of the
Ariane-1. The repeated delays needed to fix the Intelsat VF-8,
however, have permitted the repair of the third stage without further
delaying the launch.
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The government apparently is confident that the small size of an
11-percent new increase in the price of bread and the provision of
additional assistance to the poor will help it avoid provoking another
outbreak of riots. Prime Minister Mzali on Friday announced a
government austerity program that includes the increase. Last month
an increase of 110 percent touched off riots and had to be rescinded.
To reduce the budget deficit, the government now is planning im-
mediate tax increases on alcohol, cigarettes, gasoline, and luxury
goods, along with a second increase of 11 percent in the price of
bread in July.
Comment: Mzali once again is the bearer of bad news, and he
probably will be blamed if there are new disturbances. This would
weaken his position as heir apparent to President Bourguiba.
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Special Analysis
YUGOSLAVIA: Prospects for Terrorism at Sarajevo
Yugoslav security officials have worked long and hard to ensure
that the Winter Olympics are not marred by violence. They are
concerned that terrorist groups-particularly those involving Croatian
emigres-will try to disrupt the games. Although there are no current
indications that violence is likely, terrorist actions against foreign
officials or participants cannot be ruled out. Terrorists alsc could
attack Yugoslav targets in the country or abroad.
A number of Croatian emigre groups have already made threats
against the games. There are between 3,000 and 5,000 such emigres
in the West, mainly in West Germany. Most of them belong to
organizations devoted to the destruction of the Yugoslav state.
An attack during the games would dramatize the
emigres' cause, retaliate for the murders of some of their colleagues
by Yugoslav intelligence, and deal a blow to Yugoslavia's economy on
A second group of emigres-ethnic Albanians from the Kosovo
region also could pose a security threat. These emigres play a role in
the disturbances that periodically occur in Kosovo.
In addition, Serbian emigre groups could carry out terrorist
Other Possible Threats
Available reports do not indicate that the Iranians are planning
terrorist attacks at the games. The Yugoslavs, however, are
concerned that the sentencing of 12 pro-Iranian Muslim activists in
Sarajevo last summer may provoke Tehran to cause an incident.
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Armenian terrorists also might be tempted to carry out an attack,
but several factors argue against such an operation. Two members of
the Armenian terrorist group accused in the murder last March of the
Turkish Ambassador to Yugoslavia are on trial in Belgrade. The group
probably would not conduct any operations that might jeopardize the
outcome of the trial.
The other major Armenian terrorist group lacks a support base in
Yugoslavia. Moreover, the group's operations have been disrupted by
an internal dispute over its use of indiscriminate violence.
Terrorist acts by radical Palestinian groups are unlikely because
Israel is not participating in the games. The Libyans also probably will
not promote terrorism, for fear of damaging their good relations with
the Yugoslavs.
Yugoslav Preparations
Yugoslav intelligence has for decades pursued an intensive
antiterrorist program at home and abroad, and it has used a variety of
techniques to reduce the terrorist threat posed by the emigres.
Security forces in Yugoslavia are now keeping all suspicious
foreigners under tight surveillance.
Belgrade also has held high-level consultations with the US and
other Western countries aimed at monitoring and neutralizing the
emigre threat. Although the West Germans have agreed to cooperate,
Minister of Interior Dolanc has complained that Bonn is not
cooperating as much as it should.
Bonn resents Yugoslav security operations against the emigres on
West German territory. It has expressed fear that Yugoslavs might
deny refugee status to East German citizens who might use the
occasion of the games to flee to the West.
Political Implications
The Yugoslav leadership has an important political stake in the
Winter Olympics. It needs a success at Sarajevo to help restore public
confidence in the regime, which has been largely ineffective in dealing
with the nation's economic and political problems.
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If a terrorist incident marred the games, the careers of a number
of leading politicians in Bosnia and Hercegovina could be
undermined. The most prominent is Bosnian strongman and Olympic
Organizing Committee chairman Mikulic, who almost certainly will be
the next representative on the federal presidency from Bosnia and
Hercegovina.
Despite repeated danger signals that Muslim nationalism is
increasing in Bosnia and Hercegovina, local leaders in that republic
previously have denied the existence of such activity. If Muslim
activists disrupted the games, the political future of these leaders
would be in doubt.
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