NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 24 JANUARY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 75
• Publication Date: January 24, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Director of
Central
Intelligence
Top Secret
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
24 January 1984
-Top Semet
COPY%^ AL-
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
Top Secret
Contents
West Germany-Israel: Chancellor Kohl's Visit ...................... 2
Grenada: New Jewel Movement's Prospects .......................... 4
Panama: Opposition Candidate for President ........................
Israel: Budget Cuts Approved ................................................
Morocco: Efforts To Calm Unrest ............................................
Netherlands-UK: Naval Arms Cooperation Agreement ..........
USSR: Supercomputer Development Program ...................... 11
Nicaragua-China: Possible Diplomatic Ties ............................ 11
Top Secret
24 January 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
Top Secret
WEST GERMANY-ISRAEL: Chancellor Kohl's Visit
West German Chancellor Kohl begins a six-day visit to Israel today
that is likely to focus on proposed West German arms sales to Saudi 25X1
Arabia.
This will be the first trip to Israel by a West German chancellor
since Willy Brandt traveled there in 1973. The visit originally was
scheduled for last August, but it was postponed when then Prime.
Minister Begin announced his intention to resign.
West Germany is offering a wide range of arms to the Saudis,
partly to compensate for the decision made after Kohl's tour of the
Middle East last October not to sell Leopard II tanks to Riyadh. A
Saudi delegation visited West Germany last month, and press reports
state that the Saudis are particularly interested in the Gepard
antiaircraft tank and the Marder armored personnel carrier.
Comment: Despite differences over such international matters as
Israeli settlement policy and the role of the Palestinians, arms sales
pose the most contentious issue for Bonn and Tel Aviv. The two
governments have important economic, scientific, and cultural ties,
and Kohl will try to ensure that any sales to the Saudis will not
seriously damage relations. Israeli Prime Minister Shamir, however,
will argue pointedly that such sales would be a major blow to Israel's
ties with West Germany.
Contemporary West German attitudes toward Israel are still
influenced by memories of Nazi Germany's persecution of ethnic
Jews, but Kohl believes that the generation of West German leaders
now coming to power cannot be held responsible for the past. West
Germans generally support Israel, recognizing its right to exist within
Bonn needs Arab oil, however, and it would like to improve its
political and economic ties with moderate Arab states. It also wants to
promote the West German defense industry and exports. To justify
arms sales, West German officials have cited Saudi Arabia's
legitimate security needs.
Top Secret
2 24 January 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Top Secret
GRENADA: New Jewel Movement's Prospects
Leaders of the New Jewel Movement, the late Prime Minister
Bishop's party, are seeking expanded ties with Caribbean leftists and
increased international support in an effort to revitalize the oarty.
Former Prime Minister Gairy, who earlier announced he will not
run in Grenada's elections, reportedly was greeted by some 200
supporters when he returned to the island on Saturday. Members of
the governing Advisory Council fear Gairy's presence could lead to
violence. The US Embassy believes that this is unlikely, however,
because the people generally are nonviolent.
Comment: Disillusionment among Caribbean leftists following
Bishop's death probably will cause them to hesitate in rallying around
the New Jewel Movement. The radicals from the French islands, who
have demonstrated their willingness to use terrorism to publicize their
demands, are likely to offer little more than moral support to the
Grenadians. Havana also is likely to be cautious, at least in the short
The New Jewel leaders face an uphill battle in revitalizing the
party. Some unemployed Grenadian youths probably still admire
Bishop, however, and they may provide a core of support. If the
Advisory Council fails to establish a responsive government. the
movement eventually could attract a popular following.
Top Secret
4 24 January 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
Top Secret
PANAMA: Opposition Candidate for President
The intention of longtime opposition figure Arnulfo Arias to seek
the presidency could prompt Defense Forces Commander Noriega to 25X1
take preemptive measures.
Arias announced on Sunday that he has agreed to head the
presidential ticket of his party, the Authentic Panamenistas, and he
named a banking official as his choice for first vice president. Formal
acceptance of the slate is expected to require approval from the
party's nominating convention, which has yet to meet. The US
Embassy reports the party's secretary general is confident that
several other parties will now join the Authentic Panamenistas,
although earlier attempts to form an opposition alliance have failed. 25X1
The party official added that, if Arias is elected, he will not seek
the removal of General Noriega so long as the military refrains from
political activity. Arias also will push for the retirement of several high-
ranking officers and try to end the military's involvement in various
business ventures. In return, he will ensure that the armed forces
receive the funding necessary to continue their professional
development.
Comment: The military will have serious difficulty accepting
Arias's candidacy because of his longstanding animosity toward the
armed forces. His plan to retire some senior officers and curtail the
lucrative business dealings of the military may push Noriega to
consider postponing the elections scheduled for May. The
announcement that Arias actually intends to run also will put more
pressure on progovernment candidate Barletta, who lacks Arias's
charisma and voter recognition.
Top Secret
5 24 January 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Top Secret
ISRAEL: Budget Cuts Approved
The Israeli Cabinet on Sunday unanimously adopted a budget
that calls for substantial spending cuts to demonstrate that the
government is taking steps to reduce the inflation rate of nearly
200 percent and to improve the balance of payments. Most ministers
agreed to trim their expenditures by about 9 percent in real terms,
according to press reports. Reductions are planned in outlays for
settlements, defense, education, and welfare programs. Meanwhile,
3,500 engineers at Israeli Aircraft Industries joined 60,000 workers
already striking or on work slowdowns to demand higher wages.
Comment: Prime Minister Shamir threatened to resign in order to
get his fractious coalition to agree on the budget. Shamir wants to
present a united front during the debate in the Knesset tomorrow on a
no-confidence motion. These budget cuts, however, are unlikely to be
carried out. Reductions have not been implemented in the past, and
ministers have become adept at using "unanticipated" price rises to
justify exceeding their spending ceilings.
Top Secret
7 24 January 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
Unrest in Morocco
Tangier j-
/ QTetouan
"AI Hoceim y /1/ ado
j 1 J
North
Atlantic
Ocean
Morocco
Toy SecPe4
Casablanca,/
A Recent unrest
I Army deployment
Top Secre4
24 January 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Top Secret
King Hassan has promised an end to food price increases in an
effort to calm the situation, but young radicals may try to provoke
additional incidents. In an address to the nation on Sunday, Hassan
spent little time on economic issues and accused Marxist-Leninists,
Iran-inspired Islamic extremists, and "Zionist secret agents" of
causing the unrest. He emphasized that those responsible for the
disturbances would be dealt with severely. Meanwhile, the US
defense attache reports that more Army troops have been airlifted to
troubled locations and that the country is generally calm.
Comment: The King's address and the police and military
presence probably will reduce the likelihood of large-scale strikes.
Isolated incidents, however, are possible.
NETHERLANDS-UK: Naval Arms Cooperation Agreement
Dutch officials have told the US Embassy that the Netherlands
and the UK have signed a letter of intent to cooperate in defense
procurement. If the agreement is carried out, the Dutch will use
British-built gas turbine engines in their new class of eight to 12 light
frigates, and the UK will purchase the Dutch Goalkeeper close-in air
defense system for the Royal Navy and drop development of its own
system. The British will initially purchase six Goalkeepers, but they will
buy more only if the price is right and the system is judged suitable for
use on existing ships.
Comment: The British and Dutch have a long relationship in naval
procurement. Although Dutch naval officers expressed a preference
for competing US-built engines, The Hague probably was attracted by
British willingness to purchase Dutch equipment on a government-to-
government basis and by the 100-percent offset offered by the British
firm. The UK's choice of Goalkeeper-reportedly in competition with
a modified version of the US Phalanx and several other systems-
would be the first maior export order for the Dutch system.
Too Secret
25X1
25X1
9 24 January 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Top Secret
USSR: Supercomputer Development Program
Soviet Academy of Sciences vice president Velikhov was
appointed late last year to head a program to accelerate the USSR's
development of ultra-high-speed computers. Velikhov, a former chief
of laser and nuclear fusion programs, has had extensive experience
supervising classified weapons-related research and has a reputation
as an effective administrator.
Moscow plans to develop a more advanced family of El'brus-series
computers. The current series-the USSR's most advanced
machines-are not as capable as Western supercomputers.
Comment: Velikhov's program is likely to be assigned a high
priority. The overall increase in the USSR's development effort
probably is a response to the highly publicized US and Japanese
programs. Moscow recognizes that it is about 10 years behind the
West in supercomputer capability. Supercomputers have many
applications in weapon-system design, cryptology, meteorology, and
large-scale scientific modeling of physical systems.
NICARAGUA-CHINA: Possible Diplomatic Ties
A Sandinista official recently told the US Embassy that he would
visit China soon to discuss establishing diplomatic relations.
Comment: The Sandinistas probably hope that relations with
China would strengthen Nicaragua's claim to nonaligned status.
Taiwan has maintained diplomatic relations with all the Central
American countries, and the loss of Nicaragua would be a
psychological victory for China. Beijing is taking advantage of its
improved relations with Moscow to expand ties to states aligned with
the USSR. Managua's interest in replacing $12 million in trade and
Taipei's limited economic aid is the only apparent obstacle to
establishing ties.
Top Secret
11 24 January 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9
Toro Secret
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/21: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100010075-9