REVIEW OF DRAFT SDI PAPER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90M00005R000300100024-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 8, 2012
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: May 31, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/09: CIA-R/DP90MOO005R000300100024-7
OCA-1734
31 May 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Review of Draft SDI Paper
On 31 May I passed the attached comments on a draft SDI report
to Ron Tammen of Senator Proxmire's Office and Bruce MacDonald of
Senator Bumpers' Office. The final paragraph was deleted. The
discussion was held in SH 219. They agreed to take the suggested
language. F--] A
Senate Division
Dist~ribution:
"brig - OCA Registry
1 - RR CHRONO
SA/ OC~ (31 May 1988)
ET
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SECRET 25X1
2 7 MAY 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
Office of Congressional Affairs
Director of Scientific and Weapons Research
Classification Review of the 1988 Senate Staff
Report on the US SDI: Star Wars at the Crossroads
1. We have reviewed the draft Senate staff report on the SDI that was
provided to us for classification review via the SDIO. We believe there are
a number of items in the draft that are classified. There are also
statements and references to CIA that we believe are incorrect or do not
accurately reflect information that was provided to the authors in a
classified briefing last January.1-1
3. In the second paragraph on page 85, the second sentence should be
which the analysts expressed the view that the Soviets are probably
unwilling and unable at present to mount an effort equivalent to the US SDI
program.'
4. The last sentence of the first paragraph on page 100 is
unclassified but should be revised as follows: 'Such an estimate includes
Soviet expenditures for air defense against bombers and cruise missiles and
for anti-satellite applications, as well as strategic defenses against
ballistic missiles.'
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SECRET
SUBJECT: Classification Review of the 1988 to Staff Report on the US
SDI: Star Wars at the Crossroads
5. In the last paragraph on page 100,1 25X1
it may be more realistic o s e tnaz some 25X1
CIA analysts made the statements quoted in the following sentences. Also,
we suggest that the second sentence in this paragraph be replaced with the
classified and correct statement that: 'These analysts believe that there
is no Soviet SDI now, in the sense that the US SDI is considered to be a
research program directed toward the development of a comprehensive, multi-
tiered ballistic missile defense involving space-based weapons for boost-
phase intercept.' 25X1
6. We suggest adding a statement as follows: 'The 25X1
Soviets have an extensive effort in strategic missile defense and they have
been pursuing research for many years on some of the technologies that are
being investigated in the US SDI. But because of major Soviet deficiencies
in many key technologies, we do not believe the Soviets are capable at
present of mounting an effort of their own that is truly comparable to the
US SDI. In contrast to the US, the Soviets appear to be concentrating on
exploring conventional and advanced technologies appropriate for ground-
based terminal defenses against ballistic missile reentry vehicles.' 25X1
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7. We also call your attention to the likelihood of classified data
in the draft from the DIA's System Threat Assessment Report (STAR)--we
believe this draft must be reviewed b DIA for proper classification.
Chapter 10 is of particular concern. 25X1
8. Finally, I must add a cautionary note about the potential damage
that reports such as these could cause, even at the unclassified level.
They provide the Soviets with accurate, up-to-date and authoritative
information on the status, scope, achievements, problems plans and
ro ections for an important US strategic program. 25X1
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SFCfr" 25X1
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19 May 1988
Comments on Senate Staff Study: Star Wars at the Crossroads
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The latest Senate staff report--and the third in a series--on the
Strategic Defense Initiative for Senators Johnston, Bumpers and
Proxmire contains information from a class briefing that was
provided by the undersigned and on 22 January. A
memorandum for the record of that briefing is provided in Attachment
1. The pages in the draft report which make refer the briefing
and its content are included here in Attachment 2.
We believe that some of these statements and conclusions attributed to
us do not accurately reflect the full or qualified statements that we
made in our classified briefing. Most importantly,
-- we stated that it was our view that it is unlikely that
the Soviets have--or are capable of mounting yet--a true
counterpart to the US Strategic Defense Initiative, in the
sense that the SDI is a research program oriented toward
the development of a comprehensive, multi-tiered, strategic
ballistic missile defense system which involves the use of
space-based elements for boost-phase intercepts.
The staff report tends to suggest that we said that the Soviets never
will pursue an SDI-like effort (never say never) or that it was flat-
out impossible for them to ever have an equivalent to the SDI. The
staff report also fails to spell out the assumption that was made
about the nature and character of the US SDI program, i.e., that we
believe the SDI is thought of generally as including and depending on
Senates staff study draft uses the term, we did not use 'basic
research' in relation to Soviet military NIR--scientific research
work. Soviet military research has a military purpose and is a form of
technology development. We made no judgements with respect to the
availability dates (I0C), if the Soviets were to pursue development of
system elements comparable to those of a first-term US SDS_I
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Although the
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With respect to those system concepts which are more comparable to US
second-generation options,
This staff report, like the two that preceded it, is intended to be
published at the unclassified level and distributed publicly. We are
not at liberty to approve the publication of our statements at the
unclassified level. Our views and agency positions were provided in a
secret-level briefing and, though we may believe that some of these
observations or conclusions could be released at the unclassified
level in an anonymous personal-view context, approval at higher levels
must be obtained for release of such ,judgements as A positions at
either the classified or the unclassifed level.
Senior Analysts,
Strategic Defense Center
Defensive Systems Division
Attachments: a/s
Distribution:
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1 - DD/OSWR
1 - C/DSD
1 - C/ABMB
1 - C/DEB
1 - NIO/SP
1 - NIO/S&T
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