NATIONAL SECURITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE AMERICAN BANKERS ASSOCIATION

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CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8
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RIFPUB
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K
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19
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December 27, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 14, 2013
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3
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January 27, 1988
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MISC
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? Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 NATIONAL SECURITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE AMERICAN BANKERS ASSOCIATION 27 JANUARY 1988 INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE BY ROBERT M. GATES DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. THIS MORNING I WILL SHARE WITH YOU HOW WE ASSESS THE SPREAD OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, A WAR WITHOUT BORDERS CONDUCTED AGAINST AN ENEMY THAT IS HARD TO FIND AND HARDER STILL TO DEFEND AGAINST. THE CANCER OF TERRORISM IS HERE TO STAY AND, INDEED, IS SPREADING. ELIMINA FIGURES SHOW NT THE T AL NUMBER OF INC NTS WORLD? IDE GREW FOM 774 IN 19 TO 8149\ 1987 1987 -- AN 1., NCREASN\MAINLY REFL TING A DR WIC RISE TERROR? IN 1 ASA THE UNITED STATES AND ITS FRIENDS AND ALLIES CONTINUE TO 1, BE THE PRIMARY TARGETS. THE SAD TOLL OF KILLED AND INJURED GROWS MONTH BY MONTH. WHAT THE TERRORIST DOES IS KILL, MAIM, KIDNAP, TORTURE. HIS VICTIMS MAY BE CHILDREN IN THE SCHOOLROOM, INNOCENT TRAVELERS ON AIRPLANES, BUSINESSMEN RETURNING HOME FROM WORK, POLITICAL LEADERS, DIPLOMATS, SOLDIERS, CIVILIANS ANYWHERE. THE TERRORIST'S VICTIMS MAY HAVE NO PARTICULAR POLITICAL IDENTITY; OR THEY MAY BE POLITICAL SYMBOLS, LIKE ALDO MORO OR 1 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 -- PERHAPS -- POPE JOHN PAUL II. THEY MAY BE KIDNAPPED AND HELD FOR RANSOM, MAIMED OR SIMPLY BLOWN TO BITS. ONE DEFINING CHARACTERISTIC OF THE TERRORIST IS HIS CHOICE OF METHOD: THE TERRORIST CHOOSES VIOLENCE AS THE INSTRUMENT OF FIRST RESORT. LET ME TALK FIRST ABOUT TERRORISM WITH ITS ROOTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, WHICH CONTINUES TO REPRESENT THE GRAVEST DANGER TO THE UNITED STATES. THE MAJORITY OF U.S. CASUALTIES HAVE OCCURRED IN INCIDENTS INVOLVING MIDDLE EASTERNERS. MIDDLE EASTERN BOMBS HAVE TENDED TO BE LARGER, MORE SOPHISTICATED, AND MORE LETHAL. MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISTS GENERALLY ARE MORE PROFESSIONAL AND PROFICIENT IN CLANDESTINE OPERATIONS THAN OTHERS, AND THUS MORE DIFFICULT TO DETECT AND STOP. MOST IMPORTANT, IT IS MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISM THAT HAS HAD, AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE, THE MOST SEVERE IMPACT ON U.S. FOREIGN POLICY CONCERNS. LET ME ,Z4,1k OUTLINE FOR YOU SOME OF OUR CONCERNS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISM: QADHAFI IS STIRRING ONCE AGAIN AFTER THE SHOCKS OF 1986. LIBYA WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR MURDERING SEVERAL LIBYAN DISSIDENTS IN EUROPE IN 1987, AND ITS DIPLOMATS WERE EXPELLED FROM COUNTRIES THERE FOR PLANNING ACTS OF TERRORISM. IN OCTOBER FRENCH AUTHORITIES INTERCEPTED A 2 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 SHIP CALLED EKSUND II OFF THE COAST OF FRANCE. THE SHIP ORIGINATED IN LIBYA, HAD SEVERAL KNOWN PROVISIONAL IRISH REPUBLICAN ARMY MEMBERS ON BOARD, AND CARRIED A HUGE CARGO OF MISSILES, HEAVY MACHINE GUNS, ASSAULT RIFLES, AMMUNITION, AND EXPLOSIVES. LIBYA ALSO IS ATTEMPTING TO STIR UP VIOLENCE AGAINST THE WEST BY ENCOURAGING LOCAL DISSIDENTS IN SUCH DISPARATE AREAS AS THE CARIBBEAN, AFRICA, AND THE SOUTH PACIFIC. IF WE WERE TO BECOME EMBROILED IN A MILITARY CONFRONTATION WITH IRAN, WE BELIEVE IT LIKELY THAT TEHRAN WOULD STRIKE BACK WITH TERROR, NOT ONLY IN COUNTRIES IN THE GULF BUT ALSO IN EUROPE AND PERHAPS EVEN IN THE UNITED STATES. WE KNOW THERE ARE NETWORKS OF EXTREMISTS FROM VARIOUS COUNTRIES IN THE MUSLIM WORLD IN PLACE IN CITIES IN EUROPE AND ELSEWHERE THAT COULD BE USED BY IRAN TO SUPPORT TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST U.S. TARGETS. AMONG IRANIAN OR IRANIAN?SPONSORED TERRORIST ACTIVITIES DURING 1987 WERE ATTACKS AGAINST SAUDI, KUWAITI, AND OTHER MODERATE ARAB GULF STATES, THE PROBABLE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE KIDNAPPING IN LEBANON OF THE US JOURNALIST CHARLES GLASS, SUPPORT FOR (ACCORDING TO THE FRENCH) A CELL OF NORTH AFRICAN TERRORISTS ARRESTED IN MARCH 1987, AND THE START WE BELIEVE, OF A WORLD?WIDE SEARCH TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL U.S. TARGETS FOR TERRORIST ATTACKS. 3 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 IRAN SUPPORTS AND BENEFITS FROM THE CONTINUING DETENTION OF AMERICAN AND OTHER WESTERN HOSTAGES IN LEBANON. ALTHOUGH SYRIA TRIED TO DEMONSTRATE ITS GOOD FAITH BY OUSTING THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION FROM ITS DAMASCUS HEADQUARTERS IN JUNE 1987, IT HAS NOT COMPLETELY SEVERED ITS TIES TO TERRORIST GROUPS. ABU NIDAL CAMPS STILL EXIST IN PARTS OF LEBANON CONTROLLED BY SYRIAN FORCES, AND SYRIA CONTINUES TO PLAY HOST TO THE ANTI?TURKISH ARMENIAN SECRET ARMY FOR THE LIBERATION OF ARMENIA AND THE KURDISH WORKER'S PARTY. SYRIAN TROOPS CONTROL THE BEIRUT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, BUT CLOSE THEIR EYES TO THE TRAVEL OF KNOWN TERRORISTS TO AND FROM LEBANON. AS I HAVE SUGGESTED, INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM BY MIDDLE EASTERN GROUPS OWES MUCH TO STATE SPONSORSHIP -- PARTICULARLY BY IRAN, LIBYA, AND UNTIL VERY RECENTLY SYRIA. THESE STATES USE TERRORISM AND SUPPORT TO INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST GROUPS AS INSTRUMENTS OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY. THESE STATES TRAIN, FINANCE, AND ARM NUMEROUS DISSIDENT AND TERRORIST GROUPS. THEY SEND AGENTS AND SURROGATES ON MISSIONS AROUND THE WORLD USING TERROR TO ATTACK OPPONENTS AND THE PERSONNEL AND INSTALLATIONS OF THE US AND PRO?WESTERN ARAB STATES. THEY USE DIPLOMATIC AND CULTURAL MISSIONS TO SUPPORT TERRORISTS. WE 14 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT SEVERAL SENIOR OFFICIALS OF THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT ARE DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN TERRORIST ACTIVITY. LIBYA PROVIDES AID AND COMFORT TO THE NOTORIOUS PALESTINIAN TERRORIST ABU NIDAL WHOSE FOLLOWERS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEPTEMBER 1986 MASSACRES IN KARACHI AND ISTANBUL. I'D LIKE TO TURN NOW TO ASIA -- A REGION WHICH HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE PAST BUT WHICH IS NOW A MAJOR GROWTH AREA: THE BLOODIEST INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST ATTACK IN THE WORLD IN 1987 INVOLVED THE DOWNING OF THE SOUTH KOREAN AIRLINER ON 29 NOVEMBER WHILE IT WAS EN ROUTE FROM ABU DHABI TO BANGKOK. ALL 115 PASSENGERS AND THE CREW WERE KILLED. BAHRAIN AUTHORITIES ARRESTED TWO PERSONS IN CONNECTION WITH THE BOMBING: A MALE WHO COMMITTED SUICIDE AS HE WAS ABOUT TO BE INTERROGATED, AND A YOUNG WOMAN WHO WAS DEPORTED TO SEOUL. THERE THE WOMAN CONFESSED TO BEING A NORTH KOREAN SECRET AGENT, AND ADMITTED THAT SHE AND HER MALE COMPANION HAD PLACED A BOMB ON BOARD THE AIRLINER. THIS DASTARDLY ACT WAS COMMITTED WITH THE FULL KNOWLEDGE OF THE TOP LEADERSHIP IN PYONGYANG. -- TERRORISM IN PAKISTAN HAS INCREASED ALARMINGLY. THE NUMBER OF INCIDENTS THERE LEAPT FROM 47 IN 1986 TO 144 5 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 IN 1987. MOST WERE PERPETRATED BY THE AGHANISTAN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE, WHICH IS CLOSELY CONTROLLED BY THE SOVIET KGB, AND ARE PART OF AN ONGOING ATTEMPT TO DETER THE PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT FROM SUPPORTING THE MUJAHADEEN FREEDOM FIGHTERS IN AFGHANISTAN. THE TERROR SPREAD FROM THE IMMEDIATE BORDER AREA TO THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS OF LAHORE, RAWALPINDI, ISLAMABAD, AND KARACHI. THE PREFERRED INSTRUMENT WAS THE CAR BOMB, SET OFF NEAR CROWDED SHOPPING AREAS. IN ONE SAVAGE BOMBING IN KARACHI LAST JULY, FOR EXAMPLE, TWO CAR BOMBS WENT OFF NEAR A MARKET, KILLING MORE THAN SEVENTY PEOPLE AND WOUNDING CLOSE TO TWO HUNDRED. COMMUNIST INSURGENTS IN THE PHILIPPINES SEEM TO HAVE EXPANDED THEIR ACTIVITIES FROM THE COUNTRYSIDE TO TERRORISM IN THE CITIES. THREE US SERVICEMEN WERE MURDERED BY COMMUNIST TERRORISTS -- THE SO?CALLED "SPARROW SQUADS" -- IN SEPTEMBER 1987 NEAR CLARK AIR FORCE BASE. WE MUST NOW BE PREPARED FOR COMMUNIST ATTACKS ON OTHER US GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE SECTOR TARGETS IN THAT COUNTRY. WE SEE SIGNS THAT THE JAPANESE RED ARMY (JRA) IS MAKING A COME?BACK AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF DORMANCY. CALLING ITSELF THE ANTI?IMPERIALIST INTERNATIONAL BRIGADE, WE BELIEVE THAT THE JRA HAS CARRIED OUT A SERIES OF 6 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 ATTACKS -- LARGELY INEFFECTIVE SO FAR -- AGAINST SEVERAL EMBASSIES, INCLUDING OUR OWN, IN JAKARTA, ROME, AND MADRID OVER THE PAST EIGHTEEN MONTHS. MOST RECENTLY, IN NOVEMBER 1987, THE JAPANESE POLICE ARRESTED A MAJOR JRA TERRORIST LEADER AT TOKYO AIRPORT EN ROUTE TO SEOUL. A JAPANESE POLICE SPOKESMAN ANNOUNCED THAT EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE JRA IS "PLANNING A NEW ROUND OF TERRORISM, INCLUDING HIJACKING OR KIDNAPPING WELL?KNOWN PERSONS TO HOLD AS HOSTAGES UNTIL MARUOKA (THEIR LEADER) IS FREED" FROM PRISON IN TOKYO. IN THIS LONG, BUT FAR FROM INCLUSIVE, LITANY OF TERRORIST ACTIVITIES AND CONCERNS WE MUST NOT IGNORE THE GROWTH OF TERRORISM TO OUR SOUTH IN LATIN AMERICA. ALTHOUGH THE TOTAL NUMBER OF INCIDENTS DROPPED FROM 160 IN 1986 TO AROUND 100 IN 1987, US DIPLOMATS AND BUSINESSES REMAIN PRIME TARGETS AND THERE IS EVERY INDICATION THAT LATIN AMERICAN TERRORISM WILL SPREAD. AS IN THE PAST TWO YEARS PERU, COLOMBIA, AND CHILE INCURRED THE GREATEST NUMBER AND THE MOST SERIOUS TYPES OF TERRORIST ATTACKS. IN PERU THE MAOIST, XENOPHOBIC SENDERO LUMINOSO INSURGENT GROUP HAS EXPANDED ITS OPERATIONS TO INCLUDE URBAN TERRORISM; SOME OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HUNDRED SENDERO LUMINOSO TERRORISTAAT WORK IN LIMA ALONE. IN ADDITION TO BOMBINGS AND ARSON, IN 1987 SENDERO LUMINOSO FOR THE FIRST TIME CARRIED OUT PREMEDITATED 7 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 ASSASSINATION ATTEMPTS ON FOREIGN BUSINESSMEN AND DIPLOMATS. THIS SITUATION IS EXACERBATED BY THE ACTIVITIES OF ANOTHER TERRORIST GROUP, THE TUPAC AMARU REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT, WHICH IS A MORE TRADITIONAL TERRORIST GROUP THAT DIRECTS MOST OF ITS ATTACKS AGAINST FOREIGN TARGETS, ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES. OF CONCERN TO AMERICAN TOURISTS IS THE FACT THAT PERUVIAN TERRORISTS HAVE DIRECTED THEIR VIOLENCE AGAINST TRAVELERS IN TOURIST AREAS, OBVIOUSLY IN AN ATTEMPT TO DISRUPT THE TOURIST INDUSTRY. TERRORIST ATTACKS IN COLOMBIA WERE DIRECTED MAINLY AT MULTINATIONAL OIL COMPANIES -- MOST WITH U.S. AFFILIATIONS. THE CHIEF CULPRIT IS THE NATIONAL LIBERATION ARMY, WHICH CONTINUES ITS CAMPAIGN OF TRYING TO UNDERMINE THE ECONOMY BY DRIVING OUT FOREIGN BUSINESSES. OTHER INSURGENT GROUPS IN COLOMBIA ARE TRYING TO COMBINE THEMSELVES IN A COORDINATED FRONT -- THE SO?CALLED SIMON BOLIVAR GUERRILLA COORDINATOR -- AND AS SUCH ARE FOCUSING THEIR EFFORTS MORE ON POLITICAL AGITATION AND INSURGENT ATTACKS THAN ON TERRORISM AGAINST US TARGETS. LEFTWING TERRORIST GROUPS IN WESTERN EUROPE ALSO REMAIN DANGEROUS -- IF NOT SO MUCH TO US AS TO OUR ALLIES -- EVEN THOUGH SUCCESSFUL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE EFFORTS BY OUR EUROPEAN FRIENDS HAVE EITHER DECIMATED OR KEPT ON THE RUN GROUPS LIKE THE FRENCH DIRECT ACTION, THE GERMAN RED ARMY FACTION, AND THE BELGIAN COMMUNIST COMBATTANT CELLS. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE QUIESCENT FOR THE MOMENT THERE IS ALWAYS THE 8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 ? Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 POSSIBILITY THAT THESE GROUPS, HYDRA?HEADED, COULD REVIVE THEIR CAMPAIGN OF TERRORISM AGAINST US AND NATO TARGETS, AS THEY DID IN 1985. IE BASQUE ETA AND TE PROVISIONAL RISH REPUBLICAN \ ARMS-- THE LATER RESPONSIBLE F R THE BLOODY A TACK ON \ INNOC T CIVILIANS ATTENDING A VETERAN'S DAY PARA7 AT THE TOWN E% \ Nf ENNIS ILLEN -- CO TINUE ON THEIR MU,RDEROUS WAY.N_EFTWING GI4EEK TERRO IST GROUPS A -E\FILL ACTIVL THEY CARRI I OUT TWO ATTA KS AGAIN"?.S. TARGETNIN 1987, CLEA Y INTENDIN , BUT LUCKIL FAILING, TO PRODUCE LARG NUMBERS OF S CASUALTI IN THEIR CA PAIGN TO ID GREECE OF US ASES Nsj LET ME NOW TURN TO THE SOVIET CONNECTION. LOOMING IN THE BACKGROUND OF MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISM -- AND TERRORISM ELSEWHERE AS WELL -- ARE THE SOVIET UNION AND THE STATES OF EASTERN EUROPE. LET THERE BE NO MISTAKE OR AMBIGUITY ABOUT IT: THE SOVIET UNION SUPPORTS TERRORISM. IT HAS DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY TRAINED, FUNDED, ARMED AND EVEN OPERATIONALLY ASSISTED TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS FATAH, ABU NIDAL AND OTHERS. NEARLY EVERY TERRORIST GROUP IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND MANY OTHERS ELSEWHERE HAVE LINKS TO THE USSR OR ONE OF ITS CLIENTS. THE SOVIETS SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN A NUMBER OF WAYS: 9 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 THE SOVIETS PROVIDE POLITICAL BACKING, FUNDING, AND IN SOME CASES ARMS AND MILITARY TRAINING TO GROUPS OR STATES SUCH AS LIBYA THAT PARTICIPATE IN OR ARE LINKED TO TERRORISTS. -- THE SOVIETS HAVE AT LEAST INDIRECTLY GIVEN MATERIAL SUPPORT TO GROUPS THAT HAVE COMMITTED TERRORIST ACTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, AND LATIN AMERICA. THE SOVIETS HAVE TRAINED A NUMBER OF PERSONNEL LINKED TO OR BELONGING TO NATIONAL LIBERATION GROUPS, AND THEY OPENLY SUPPLY ARMS TO NUMEROUS GOVERNMENTS AND GROUPS THAT CONDUCT TERRORIST ACTIVITIES. LIBYA IS A LEADING EXAMPLE. THE SOVIETS SUPPORT CERTAIN PALESTINIAN GROUPS, EAST EUROPEAN STATES, SOUTH YEMEN, AND CUBA, ALL OF WHOM SUPPORT TERRORIST GROUPS OR GROUPS THAT COMMIT TERRORIST ACTS. BULGARIA'S STATE TRADING ORGANIZATION KINTEX -- WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A STATE SMUGGLING OPERATION -- AND CZECHOSLOVAKIA'S COMPARABLE ORGANIZATION OMNIPOL ARE AMONG THE MOST PROMINENT COMPANIES WHOSE WEAPONS EVENTUALLY HAVE APPEARED IN TERRORIST HANDS. 10 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 - Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 THE EAST EUROPEANS, ALMOST CERTAINLY WITH SOVIET KNOWLEDGE AND SUPPORT, PROVIDE SAFEHAVEN, TRANSIT PRIVILEGES AND MOVEMENT OF WEAPONS AND BOMBS FOR TERRORISTS. IT IS THIS UMBRELLA OF SOVIET SUPPORT, AND THE ASSOCIATED ROLE OF SOVIET CLIENTS SUCH AS SYRIA, LIBYA, VIETNAM AND NICARAGUA THAT ALLOWS LARGE SCALE TERRORIST OPERATIONS TO CONTINUE. AND, FINALLY, IN ADDITION TO THEIR SUPPORT OF THESE GROUPS, THE SOVIETS SO FAR HAVE REFUSED TO PLAY ANY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO CURTAIL TERRORISM. IT HAS NOT BEEN LOST ON THE SOVIETS THAT THE PRACTITIONERS OF TERRORISM WHO MAKE SPECTACULAR STRIKES AGAINST THE WEST BY BENDING OR REDEFINING THE RULES -- AS IN LEBANON -- ARE FINDING WAYS PAST THE WEST'S DEFENSES, BOTH PHYSICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL. THIS HAS ALLURE -- AND IS A GOOD LINE OF ATTACK -- FOR MOSCOW IN A WORLD WHEN NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL MILITARY BALANCES CHANGE SLOWLY AND WHERE SOVIET ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND IDEOLOGICAL POWER IS STUNTED. SUCH AN ATTITUDE TOWARD TERRORISM IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE FUNDAMENTAL ROLE THAT TERRORISM PLAYED IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF SOVIET POWER AND THE CONDUCT OF ITS POLICY. AS NOTED IN A RECENT BOOK, "UTOPIA IN POWER," ONE OF THOSE WHO LED THE REVOLUTION, TROTSKY, SAID THAT THE REVOLUTION "KILLS INDIVIDUALS AND INTIMIDATES THOUSANDS" -- IT IS NECESSARY TO KILL SOME IN ORDER TO SHATTER THE WILL OF 11 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 THE REST. NO ONE IN THE INTERVENING 65 YEARS HAS FOUND A BETTER STATEMENT OF THE PURPOSE OF TERROR AT HOME OR ABROAD. LET ME NOW TURN TO THE PROBLEMS OF US INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS AND COUNTERTERRORISM POLICYMAKERS AS THEY SEEK TO TACKLE THE PROBLEM OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM. IN ORDER TO PREVENT TERRORIST PLANS OR DISRUPT THEIR ACTIVITIES WE NEED INFORMATION ABOUT THEM, BUT THE VERY NATURE OF TERRORIST GROUPS AND THEIR ACTIVITIES MAKES THIS TASK EXTREMELY COMPLICATED. TERRORIST GROUPS ARE VERY SMALL. WE ESTIMATE THAT MANY NUMBER FEWER THAN TWO DOZEN HARD CORE MEMBERS. ALTHOUGH SUCH GROUPS MAY HAVE MANY MORE SYMPATHIZERS AND SUPPORTERS, THOSE PERSONS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPECTUCULAR BOMBINGS OR ASSASSINATIONS ARE RELATIVELY FEW AND WELL?CONCEALED. THEY SOMETIMES USE UNWITTING PERSONS -- SUCH AS THE WOMAN CAUGHT TRYING TO BOARD AN EL AL AIRLINER WITH A BOMB IN HER LUGGAGE AT THE LONDON AIRPORT IN THE SPRING OF 1986. INCREASINGLY WE FIND THAT PEOPLE WHO COME TOGETHER TO CONDUCT AN ATTACK WERE NOT KNOWN TO EACH OTHER PREVIOUSLY AND THAT ONLY THE LEADER KNOWS ALL THE DETAILS OF THE ARRANGEMENTS AND PARTICIPANTS. AS A RESULT EVEN WHEN WE CAPTURE ONE OF THE PERPETRATORS, HE MAY BE UNABLE TO TELL US MUCH ABOUT THE GROUP BEHIND THE ATTACK. THE CENTRAL CORE OF TERRORIST GROUPS IS TIGHTLY KNIT AND DIFFICULT TO PENETRATE. MIDDLE EASTERN GROUPS FREQUENTLY HAVE 12 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 KINSHIP, VILLAGE, OR TRIBAL LINKS; WHEREAS WEST EUROPEAN GROUPS TEND TO REPRESENT PEOPLE WITH INTELLECTUAL AND PERSONAL TIES DATING FROM STUDENT DAYS. IN SHORT, THE KEY MEMBERS OF THE TERRORIST GROUP KNOW EACH OTHER VERY WELL AND OUTSIDERS WOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY ESTABLISHING THEIR BONA FIDES, MAKING PENETRATION OF THE CORE GROUP BY POLICE OR INTELLIGENCE AGENTS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE. THE OPERATING LIFE OF ANY SINGLE GROUP OF TERRORISTS IS OFTEN NO MORE THAN A FEW YEARS. LIKEWISE THE TYPICAL TERRORIST LEADER HAS A RELATIVELY SHORT BUSINESS LIFE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS WHO HAVE BEEN PLYING THEIR TRADE FOR SEVERAL YEARS. THIS INTENSIFIES THE PRESSURE ON INTELLIGENCE COLLECTORS AND ANALYSTS TO QUICKLY DETERMINE THE ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE OF GROUPS SO PROMPT ACTION CAN BE TAKEN AGAINST THEM. TERRORIST GROUPS ARE NOT STATIONARY, THAT IS THEY SELDOM OPERATE FROM FIXED FACILITIES. TERRORISTS MAY LEARN WEAPONS HANDLING AND BOMB BUILDING AT AN INSURGENT CAMP OR OTHER SUCH FACILITY, BUT THEY DON'T NEED TO. A HOTEL ROOM, ATTIC, OR BASEMENT WOULD DO EQUALLY WELL FOR MOST OF THE TRAINING THEY NEED. THUS JUST BECAUSE WE LEARN WHERE THE "BOMB FACTORY" WAS FOR THE LAST ATTACK DOES NOT MEAN WE HAVE A LEAD ON WHERE IT WILL BE FOR THE NEXT ONE. 13 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 ? Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 TERRORISTS FREQUENTLY USE RUDIMENTARY, BUT HIGHLY SECURE, OPERATING AND COMMUNICATIONS METHODS. THEY DEPEND ON COURIERS AND COMMERCIAL TELEPHONES. TERRORIST EQUIPMENT AND WEAPONS ARE OFTEN STOLEN FROM MILITARY AND POLICE STORES OR ELSE PURCHASED ON THE FLOURISHING GRAY ARMS MARKET. EVEN RELATIVELY SOPHISTICATED BOMBS CAN BE MANUFACTURED FROM COMPONENTS EASILY PURCHASED FROM A HARDWARE STORE OR STOLEN FROM A COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION COMPANY. ONE DISTINCTION IS WORTH NOTING HERE, EUROPEAN TERRORISTS BY AND LARGE SUPPLY THEMSELVES. MIDDLE EASTERN TERRORISTS ARE USUALLY SUPPLIED BY THEIR FRIENDS, INCLUDING THE SOVIET BLOC. TERRORISTS ARE OPPORTUNISTS AND QUICK TO COPY WHAT WORKS POLITICALLY OR TECHNICALLY. A RECENT EXAMPLE IS THE USE OF A HANG?GLIDER BY PALESTINIAN TERRORISTS TO ATTACK AN ISRAELI MILITARY CAMP. THIS MAKES IT HARD TO SEPARATE COPYCAT ATTACKS FROM A CAMPAIGN THAT IS BASED ON COOPERATION OR LINKS BETWEEN GROUPS. HOW DO WE COPE WITH THESE SMALL BANDS OF HIGHLY TRAINED PEOPLE, MOST OF THEM FANATICS, SOME READY TO GIVE UP LIFE ITSELF TO DO THEIR INCREASINGLY SOPHISTICATED EVIL DEEDS? FIRST WE ARE OBVIOUSLY ACQUIRING AS MUCH INFORMATIONAWE CAN ABOUT TERRORIST GROUPS INCLUDING THEIR MODUS OPERANDI, ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, PERSONNEL, SUPPORT, FINANCIAL, AND 114 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 COMMUNICATIONS ARRANGEMENTS, AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER GROUPS OR STATE SPONSORS. MUCH OF THIS IS PURE BASIC RESEARCH, COMPILING LARGE DATABASES, AND ATTEMPTING TO FILL IN THE GAPS. IT IS NOT VERY GLAMOROUS AND THE PEOPLE WHO DO IT DO NOT CAPTURE THE HEADLINES, BUT IT IS THE FOUNDATION UPON WHICH THE U.S. COUNTERTERRORIST EFFORT RESTS. CONTINUING COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS ENABLES US TO IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO DETECT TRENDS IN TERRORIST OPERATIONS AND UPGRADE SECURITY IN AREAS THAT ARE MOST LIKELY AT RISK. CONTINUING RESEARCH ALLOWS US TO DETERMINE THE VULNERABILITIES OF TERRORIST GROUPS AND FORMULATE PLANS FOR DISRUPTING THEIR ACTIVITIES. THIS IS NOT A PROBLEM FOR THE UNITED STATES ALONE, BUT A TASK IN WHICH THE CIVILIZED NATIONS OF THE WORLD MUST COOPERATE. WITH INCREASING TEMPO AND EFFECTIVENESS WE ARE DEVELOPING A WORLDWIDE COUNTERTERRORIST NETWORK MADE UP OF THE INTELLIGENCE, SECURITY, AND POLICE ORGANIZATIONS OF THE THREATENED NATIONS. THEY EXCHANGE INTELLIGENCE, SHARE DATA BANKS, WORK TOGETHER OPERATIONALLY, PROVIDE TRAINING AND TECHNICAL CAPABILITIES TO THE LESS ADVANCED OF THEIR NUMBER, UNDERTAKE SURVEILLANCE AND OTHER INTELLIGENCE ASSIGNMENTS FOR EACH OTHER, REPORT THEIR FINDINGS, TRANSMIT ALERTS AND WARNINGS. THE FACT THAT THERE HAS BEEN A LULL IN MAJOR "SPECTACULARS" CARRIED OUT BY TERRORISTS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST FOR ALMOST EIGHTEEN MONTHS NOW IS NOT WITHOUT GOOD REASON. FIRST, WE 15 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 OURSELVES, IN COLLABORATION WITH OUR EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES, HAVE HAD SOME SUCCESS IN FORCING TERRORIST GROUPS OFF BALANCE. ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, OUR WARNING AND DETAILED INTELLIGENCE HAS DIRECTLY ASSISTED FOREIGN AUTHORITIES IN CAPTURING TERRORISTS. THERE ARE MANY MORE TERRORISTS IN PRISON IN THE UNITED STATES, WESTERN EUROPE, AND ELSEWHERE THAN THERE WERE ONLY A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO. SECOND, THE US AND ITS ALLIES HAVE EXPENDED A VAST AMOUNT OF RESOURCES ON BETTER SECURITY, INCLUDING THE HARDENING OF POTENTIAL TARGETS. AND THIRD, FOR SEVERAL REASONS LIBYA AND SYRIA HAVE HAD TO BACK AWAY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS CLOSE INVOLVEMENT IN SUPPORTING TERRORISM, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. LIBYA, FOR EXAMPLE, WAS GRAVELY SHAKEN BY OUR AIR?RAIDS IN APRIL 1986, AN EVENT WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY THE EXPULSION FROM VARIOUS COUNTRIES IN EUROPE OF OVER A HUNDRED LIBYAN DIPLOMATS KNOWN TO BE SUPPORTING TERRORISM. SYRIA BECAME DIPLOMATICALLY ISOLATED BECAUSE OF EVIDENCE PRODUCED IN COURT TRIALS IN EUROPE CLEARLY SHOWING ITS COMPLICITY IN ACTS OF TERROR, INCLUDING AN ATTEMPT AGAINST AN EL AL AIRLINER IN LONDON IN 1986. AT THE SAME TIME SYRIA'S ECONOMY SUFFERED A SERIOUS DOWNTURN, LEADING ITS GOVERNMENT TO FORESWEAR SUPPORTING TERRORISM IN ORDER TO GET BACK INTO THE GOOD GRACES OF THE EUROPEANS AND SO GET NEW ECONOMIC CREDITS. IN WASHINGTON, WE HAVE MADE\VERY GOOD PROGRESS IN DEVELOPING A SYSTEM OF VERY RAPID COMMUNICATIONS TO GATHER ASSESSMENTS, HAVE REPORTS TESTED BY INTELLIGENCE EXPERTS 16 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 ? Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 THROUGHOUT OUR GOVERNMENT AND ELSEWHERE, AND PASS CONCLUSIONS QUICKLY TO THE POINT OF THE THREAT -- WHETHER IN THE UNITED STATES OR OVERSEAS. WE OBVIOUSLY NEED AN INTERNATIONAL EFFORT ALONG THE SAME LINES, HOWEVER, FOR THE UNITED STATES IS ONLY ONE OF AN INCREASING NUMBER OF TARGETS FOR TERRORISTS. WE ALSO NEED MORE VIGOROUS ACTION BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IN GENERAL IF WE ARE TO CONTAIN THE TERRORIST CHALLENGE. WESTERN NATIONS HAVE ON THE WHOLE BEEN WEAK IN APPLYING ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND DIPLOMATIC MEASURES TO CHECK TERRORISM. TOO OFTEN COUNTRIES ARE INHIBITED BY FEAR OF LOSING COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITIES OR OF PROVOKING FURTHER TERRORISM. THERE IS A COMMON, BUT BADLY MISTAKEN, BELIEF ON THE PART OF SOME OF OUR ALLIES AND FRIENDS THAT APPEASEMENT WILL LEAD TO SAFETY. PAST EXPERIENCE WITH TERRORIST HIJACKING SHOWS THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN MOVE IN CONCERT AND THAT WHEN IT DOES IT CAN BE EFFECTIVE. THE TERRORIST DEPENDS UPON TWO FACTORS FOR SUCCESS IN CONDUCTING HIS WAR ON THE MIND. THE FIRST, AND MOST IMPORTANT OF THESE, IS COVERAGE BY THE MEDIA. IN THIS DECADE MORE PEOPLE CAN BE ADDRESSED BY NEWSPAPER, TELEVISION, RADIO, AND MAGAZINES THAN EVER BEFORE IN HISTORY. WHAT IS MORE, THE MEDIA IS SO EFFECTIVE THAT MILLIONS OF PEOPLE MAY LEARN OF A TERRORIST ATTACK THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE HALF A WORLD AWAY IN A MATTER OF MINUTES -- OR AT MOST, HOURS. IT IS NO ACCIDENT THAT THE VAST 17 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 BULK OF THE MOST HEINOUS TERRORIST MURDERS, BOMBINGS AND HIJACKINGS TAKE PLACE -- NOT IN ISOLATED VILLAGES IN AFRICA OR AMONG REMOTE ASIAN TRIBESMEN -- BUT IN CITIES THAT POSSESS EXCELLENT COMMUNICATION LINKS WITH THE REST OF THE WORLD. THE TERRORIST HOPES THAT HIS DEEDS WILL BE BANNERED ON THE SIX O'CLOCK NEWS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD. THE SECOND FACTOR THAT AIDS TERRORISTS IN THEIR CAMPAIGN IS THE NATURE OF MODERN URBAN SOCIETY. THE CONCENTRATION OF POPULATION OFFERS ANONYMITY TO THE TERRORIST. WEAPONS AND MONEY CAN BE OBTAINED THROUGH AN INFINITE NUMBER OF CHANNELS, THUS PRESERVING THE TERRORIST'S OPERATIONAL SECURITY. THE VARIETY OF EFFICIENCY OF TRANSPORTATION ENHANCES THE TERRORIST'S MOBILITY. MOREOVER, INDUSTRIALIZED SOCIETIES HAVE MORE VULNERABLE HIGH?VALUE TARGETS -- SUCH AS COMPUTER CENTERS, AIRLINES, FACTORIES, SHOPPING ARCADES, AND EVEN APARTMENT COMPLEXES. WESTERN DEMOCRACIES BY THEIR VERY NATURE ARE PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO TERRORIST ATTACKS. I HAVE SPOKEN ABOUT PREVENTIVE, COOPERATIVE, PROTECTIVE AND INVESTIGATIVE MEASURES. WHAT ABOUT THE TERRORIST HIMSELF? WE MUST TAKE VIGOROUS ACTION TO ISOLATE HIM FROM HIS TARGET -- ATTACKING THE PUBLIC MIND. THAT IS TO SAY WE MUST DEFEAT THE TERRORISTS' STRATEGY OF MANIPULATING PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS. WE MUST DENY THE TERRORIST THE FRUIT OF HIS LABORS -- NAMELY, THE ABILITY TO EXPLOIT THE MEDIA TO INSTILL IN THE PUBLIC FEELINGS 18 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8 OF UNCERTAINTY AND FEAR. THE MEDIA ITSELF MUST PLAY THE LEADING ROLE IN THIS EFFORT BY TREATING NEWS OF TERRORIST INCIDENTS IN A MORE RESERVED FASHION, AND BY PROVIDING STRONG EDITORIALS THAT DISCREDIT THE TERRORISTS' ACTIONS. IN ADDITION WE SHOULD STRIVE TO INSTILL IN THE TERRORIST THOSE SAME PERVASIVE FEELINGS OF FEAR THAT HE SEEKS TO INSTILL IN THE PUBLIC -- THE FEELINGS OF CONSTANTLY BEING THE HUNTED, RATHER THAN THE HUNTER. THE TERRORIST MUST AT ALL TIMES HAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT HIS MOVEMENTS ARE KNOWN, HIS PLANS UNDERSTOOD, AND HIS CELLS PENETRATED. WE CAN DO THIS, AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, BY IMPROVING COORDINATION OF INTELLIGENCE, POLICE AND COUNTERTERRORIST UNITS, AND ESPECIALLY BY MOBILIZING MEDIA SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN THE COURAGE OF THE PUBLIC AND TO CONVINCE THE TERRORIST THAT HIS ACTIONS ARE REPUDIATED BY THE PUBLIC. IF WE CAN DO THIS, THE TERRORIST WILL WATCH IN FRUSTRATION AS HIS POWER OVER THE MEDIA DRIES UP AND, WITH IT, HIS POWER TO ASSAULT THE MIND. IF CUT OFF FROM HIS SPONSORS, THE TERRORIST WILL WATCH THE GROWING APPREHENSION AS HE LEARNS THAT THE COSTS AND RISK OF HIS OPERATIONS SKYROCKET WHILE THE IMPACT OF HIS ACTIONS PLUMMETS. THE FUTILITY OF TERRORISM THEN WILL AT LAST BE MADE OBVIOUS TO THE TERRORIST HIMSELF, AND HIS DEVASTATING WAR ON THE MIND AND ON THE INNOCENT WILL SLOWLY COME TO AN END. 19 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/08/14: CIA-RDP89G00720R000700940003-8