NICARAGUA: LIVING WITH THE SANDINISTAS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90G01353R001500230057-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 4, 2013
• Sequence Number: 57
• Publication Date: January 1, 1988
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/09/11: CIA-RDP90G61353R001500230057-3 5X1
Nicaragua: Living with the Sandinistas
I. The Sandinistas have made steady progress toward building
a Marxist-Leninist regime since the revolution nine years' ago
and 'almost certainly will maintain their grip -on,power.,
A. Prospects for the insurgency are bleak.
-- The flow of insurgents to Honduras is increasing, and
their support structure in Nicaragua is eroding.
The Sandinistas have strengthened their military
position.
EL Prospects for further cease-fire negotiations also are dim.
The delays'have"Workedto-SandiniStaS" adVantage:-
-- Factionalism among insurgent political leaders has
-intensified, and they are not inclined to go back to the'
bargaining table. -
C. The economy is the regime's most serious- vulnerability.
-- The Sandinistas will continue to rely on Soviet Bloc
aid while aggressively seeking economic assistance from
the West.
-- The deepening economic slide could bilock some military
modernization plans and jeopardize public support.
D. Discontent is widespread, but internal opposition
problems andSandinista repression will likely prevent:-
effective,UnitedAnti-:regimeactitim
The Sandinistas. WiliHtake-MeaSurestoapPearMore
pluralistic but will not allow.any real power-sharing
with their opponents,
?
II. Consolidation of the regime and a greatly weakened insurgency
will rose new challenges'to the US and Central America.
A.
-- The Hondurans will be reluctant to allow the
insurgents to remain in their country and will press
US to accept them as refugees.
B. Regional peace talks have been ineffective so far in
compelling the Sandinistas to democratize.
-- The CentralAmerican democracies will continue weaving
course between complete accommodation and containment
of Nicaragua.
-- How aggressively the Sandinistas try to subvert
neighboring countries will be a key determinant of
local governments' reactions.
the
GA(--1?- (2fv\ A(Z-A1), bal-L7-
a
25X1
TOP ET I 225X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/09/11: CIA-RDP90G01353R001500230057-3