NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 5 MARCH 1987

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88T00091R000400180001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 5, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
5 March 1987
CPAS NID 87-052JX
March
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Top Secret
Contents
Australia: Possible Opposition Split ............................................ 3
Kuwait-USSR-US: Negotiations To Protect Tankers .................. 4
Turkey-Iraq: Turks Strike Kurdish Camps in Iraq .............. :....... 6
USSR-Libya: Lukewarm Support for Qadhafi ..............................
South Yemen-North Yemen: Oil Find ........................................
Special Analyses
Nicaragua: Counterinsurgency Strategy ...................................... 10
Top Secret
5 March 1987
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
25X1
25X1
25X11
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Top Secret
The Australian Parliament: The House
of Representatives
Labor Party Opposition
82 I Coalition
Liberal Party
45
National Party
21
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Top Secret
AUSTRALIA: Possible Opposition Split
Queensland State Premier Bjelke-Petersen's apparent bid to
become Australia's next prime minister threatens to divide
conservative opposition to Prime Minister Hawke's Labor
government and improve Hawke's chances of reelection.
Bjelke-Petersen, who has dominated politics in Queensland for
19 years, has announced he will leave his state post to seek a seat in
the federal parliament in the next election, which must be held by
April 1988. Bjelke-Petersen's political base is the Queensland branch
of the National Party, the junior partner-with the Liberal Party-in
the conservative coalition opposing the Hawke government.
In a move to gain control of the National Party, Bjelke-Petersen last
week engineered the withdrawal from the state coalition of the
Queensland Nationals. According to the US Embassy, the
Queensland Nationals have urged the federal National Party to break
from the coalition, citing their disagreement with the coalition
leadership's tax policies.
Bjelke-Petersen's strength against conservative rivals will be tested
this weekend in the election for the Northern Territory Parliament
where he is backing candidates to challenge the ruling conservative
coalition government. According to the Embassy, a strong showing by
his allies in the Northern Territory might persuade Bjelke-Petersen to
accelerate his campaign to replace Ian Sinclair as leader of the
federal National Party.
Comment: In recent public opinion surveys, an opposition coalition
led by Bjelke-Petersen outpolled Hawke's Labor government.
Bjelke-Petersen's sudden popularity, however, probably stems largely
from growing public discontent with Hawke's handling of the
economy, which is in its second year of slow growth, and with the
lackluster performance of Liberal Part leader Howard as head of the
opposition coalition.
Bjelke-Petersen's strongly conservative policies-especially his
opposition to trade unions-are unlikely to stand up well under closer
scrutiny by the Australian public. It is also unlikely that the National
Party could win enough seats in the next election for him to become
prime minister. Nonetheless, Bjelke-Petersen stands a good chance
of gaining control of the federal National Party and is almost certainly
positioning himself to become a power broker for the conservatives at
the national level.
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Top Secret
KUWAIT-USSR-US: Negotiations To Protect Tankers
Kuwait may sign a tanker protection agreement with the USSR unless
the US allows 11 Kuwaiti tankers to be put under the US flag. The US
Embassy in Kuwait says that Kuwaiti officials would rather not turn to
the Soviets but are disappointed with the delay in the US offer and
feel compelled to protect their petroleum exports. Moscow's offer to
place as many as 11 Kuwaiti tankers under the Soviet flag with Soviet
crews and to supply limited military escort for them has been swift by
comparison, according to the US Embassy. Putting all 11 Kuwaiti
tankers under the US flag would be difficult because only six of them
meet US specifications.
Comment: Kuwaiti officials would probably abandon the negotiations
with the USSR if the US were to agree to protect all 11 tankers.
Protection for liquefied petroleum gas and product tankers is
particularly important because of the highly explosive nature of such
products, which make up the bulk of Kuwait's petroleum exports.
Initially Iran would probably be cautious about attacking reflagged or
escorted Kuwaiti ships and, at least at first, seek other ways to limit
Kuwaiti petroleum exports, including terrorist operations against
Kuwaiti oil facilities. An agreement between Kuwait and the USSR
would increase the Soviet presence in the Persian Gulf and would aid
Moscow's efforts to expand its ties to other Arab Gulf states.
Top Secret
X
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Iq
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Top secret
TURKEY-IRAQ: Turks Strike Kurdish Camps in Iraq
Turkey has announced that 30 of its aircraft bombed Kurdish rebel
strongholds in northern Iraq yesterday. The raid was in retaliation for
a Kurdish attack that killed 14 people in a Turkish village last month.
The Turkish air operation was carried out under terms of a 1983
understanding with Iraq that permits hot pursuit of rebels by Turkish
forces. Unconfirmed press reports indicate that Turkish commando
units also are operating against the Kurds inside northern Iraq.
Comment: This is the fourth major cross-border operation by Turkey
since the 1983 understanding was reached with Iraq. This year
35 Turks have been killed in Kurdish attacks, and Ankara has been
under increasing pressure after the attack last month to retaliate. The
airstrike probably will curtail Kurdish activities for awhile, but the
advent of better weather will probably bring another round of Kurdish
attacks and Turkish retaliation. Baghdad will relish the almost certain
negative reaction in Tehran to the raid against Iranian-supported
Kurds and will welcome any reduction in Kurdish pressure on Iraqi
troops in the north.
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
Top Secret
USSR-LIBYA: Lukewarm Support for, Qadhafi
In a speech in Tripoli on-l y, Soviet Politburo candidate
member Solovyev expressed strong condemnation of "imperialist"
interference in Chad, solidarity with the Libyan people, and criticism
of Arab disunity. Solovyev, in Tripoli for the 10th anniversary
celebration of "people's rule" in Libya, also read a cable to Libyan
leader Qadhafi from the Supreme Soviet, which, although it offered no
explicit support, wished him success in his fight for peace, progress,
and independence.
Comment: Solovyev's speech was typical of Soviet official
pronouncements on Libya-long on sympathy for the Libyan people
but short on tangible support for the regime. Libyan anniversaries
have received similar high-level treatment in the past. Politburo
candidate member Demichev was in Tripoli last September for the
16th anniversary of the revolution. Although Solovyev, the Leningrad
party boss, has traveled abroad and has met foreign visitors to the
USSR, this was his first speech addressing a foreign policy topic. He
may have been sent to Libya to gain exposure and experience.
Top Secret
7 5 March 1987
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88T00091 R000400180001-4
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/11/16: CIA-RDP88TOO091 R000400180001-4
Top Secret
'~/' Jabal Zugar
(Y.A.R.)