WEEKLY REPORT #17

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A002000170001-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 11, 2013
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 10, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

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WEEKLY SUMMARY
Number 17
i 0 3EP 1948
Doauaieat No. d ~'
NO .CHA~iGE is Class . ~
DTsCI,ASSIFIED
ass. CHA.'J3ED T0: TS S C
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Anth: DDA ??"w. ?7 rl7r~
Date: ~ ~ By: DZ./
CENTRAL. INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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1. This publication contains current intelligence exclusively
and therefore has not been coordinated with the intelli-
gence organizations of the departments of State, Army,
Navy, and Air Force.
2. This copy may be either retained, or destroyed by burning
in accordance with applicable security regulations, or
returned to the Central Intelligence Agency.
This document contains information affecting the na-
tional defense of the United States within the meaning
of the Espionage Act, 50 U.S.C., 31 and 32, as amended.
Its transmission or the revelation of its contents in any
manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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C O N T E N T S
Page
HIGHLIGHTS ........................ 1
WESTERN EUROPE ................. 2
EASTERN EUROPE ................. 5
NEAR EAST -AFRICA .............. 8
FAR EAST ..........................11
WESTERN AE MI3PHERE............13
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H X G F1 'L I G Xi T 3
i
With no end of the blockade of Berlin yet in sight.
the USSR began during the past week to intensity its efforts
to destroy the present Berlin city government (see page 5).
Through the intimidation oat Haan-Comanu~ist officials and
the use of controlled popular violence, the Soviet Union in-
tends to antici~,te the outcome of the current four -power
negotiations b9 mashing western power occupation of Berlin
dependent, in say event, upon Soviet "tolerance" in Berlin,
Elsewhere in eastern Europe, the USSR was confronted with
s "nationalist" rebellion in the Polish Communist Forty
which was contained by the pro-(:o~ninform group (see page 6).
Prolongation of the political crisis in France appears
to be increasing the possibilfty that General De Gaulle will
be swept into office by popular election sometime in the neat
few months (see page 2). As the French people view the
present scene ad economic instability, political cleavages,
and mutual distrust, they are increasingly likely to turn to
the leader who has consistently symbolized the strong executive.
The problem of the disposition of Italy's colonies was
highlighted during she past week by the Soviet Union slast-
minute request for a Council ~ Foreign Ministers meeting
to discuss the colonies. Although the coming CFM meeting
probably will reach no agreement in the time remaining
before 15 8eptenaber, a unified US-British-French policy
for presentation at the Paris General Assembly meeting now
appears likely and may make it possible to achieve some
solution there (see page 8).
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wESTiERN EUROPE
ropr i betty and the
UDR may produce a bitter the of words daring the saris
meeting d the UN General Assembly. Placed on the defensive
b9 fficreasingly effective US ofd to western Europe, the U38R
will probably lash out with a major propaganda offensive de-
signed to shake the confidence of western European and Asiatic
peoples to the intientio?s ad the Us and to contrast aggressive
IIS impesialism with the Soviet will for peace. The USSR will
charge that the US is attempting to enslave western Europe
through the European recovery program and integrate western
Germany into western Europe. Besides demanding Soviet
participation in a solution of the overall German problem oen
the basis of the Warsaw Coma~uni~ue, the USSR will probably
attack the disposition of the Italian colonies, western coloetial
imperialism in the Near and Far East, failure to reduce arma-
mrents, and UN failure to achieve international control of atomic
enErgy. By attacking aggressively on the points of greatest
western vulnerability, the USSR probably hopes to divert aiorld
opinion from iffi own aggressive designs and Soviet obstructioa-
isui in the UN.
FRANCE
S~eneral De Ganlle?s chances of being swept into office
by a popular election in the nrext few meths appear to be in-
creasing as the French political situation continues to deter-
iorate. The inability of the French government to stabilise
prices and wages during August, when food supplies and in-
dustrial production reached their postwar peak, was caused
largely by the unarillin~gness ~' the various elements in France
to work together for recovery under the leadership of the
present centrist coalition. Sy withholding production from
the market, industrialists, merchants, peasants, and middle
men have prevented France from capitalizing upon a distinctly
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FRANCE
proumisio~ economic sitnatioe. Because ad Ideological cleav-
ages and aantnal distrust, the stage is being set for the return
~ France's "strong man." In the midst ai cusrent talk of
soli-dfssolntion by Assembly members, De Gaulle's postti~
in the eTss of the French electorate is farther strengtt~eaed
by his record of the past two years is caesistentty demand-
ing a slroager erzecative.
GERMAN
The deteriora -rice balance in western Ger
is providing the ommunists with their beat postwar opportun
for fostering widespread strikes in key industries. The power-
ful Bavarian Metal Workers' Unioa, in which the Communist
Party is strongly represeated, is to decide by 11 September
whether to hold a general strike in demand of a 30?,~ wage in-
crease. Either the strike or the wage increase would cause
serious loag-range repercussions throughout the western c3er-
man economy. A strike, which would be sanctioned by the trade
unions, would probably spread to other Laender and affect many
vital industries. A wage increase would undoubtedly lead to
similar dema~ads from other industries aad would have the usual
spiraling tnflatloanary effect throughout the western zooms.
UNITED KINGDOM
l ded F defense exercise.
_
,r....-_M.__~
{tn which USAF B-28 s stationed in Great Britain participated
reflects the change in British defense policy which was inaugu-
rated less than a year ago. As late as December 1942, the
government s over-all policy was designed to cut military ea-
penditures drastically and to reduce most ~ its air defense
facilities to a maintenance basis. General deterioratiaa in the
internaetioanal situation, however, has forced the government to
review its previous estimates of air strength and to give a
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UNITED KII~tGDOM
priority to a!r defines second only to research and devel~p-
ment. This chafe to policy has resulted in: (!) re-activation
of the air-raLd parecavttion and the control and reporting systems;
(2) equipment d all vx-used operational fighter squadrons and
one reserve sgaadron with jet aircraft; and (~) recommendatio-a
for increased prodaction of anti aircraft ammunition.
SWEDEN
Sweden's continued isolationism is demonstrated by the
issues placed before the voters prior to the Swedish general
elections set for mid-September. Political speakers are dis-
cussing Sweden's financial crisis almost to the exclusion of
international and foreign policy problems. Because of its con-
tinued adverse balance of trade, Sweden has become since June
a debtor nation. As a resua+:, economic difficulties and the
party's previous errors will probably necessitate changes in the
Cabinet, even though the Social Democrats will undoubtedly re-
main Sweden's strongest political party. If the economic situ-
ation deteriorates rapidly, the election gains of Liberals
and Agrarians may bring about the formation of a coalition
government.
-4-
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EASTERN EUROPE
SOVIET UNION
In the midst of the four-power negotiations in Berlin, .
the USSR is making determined efforts to destr .the ~"~..
city government and to replace it with a C ommunist-dominated
administrations subject to the will of the Kremlin. These tactics
are apparently intended to lay the ground work for eventual
absorption ag Berlin into the ecoasomy ad ~ eastern Germany.
Intimidation and arrest of western sectoar police and non-Com-
munist city officials, intensified anti~estern propaganda,, and
strong efforts to smash the legally-elected Ber19n government
are all part of this campaign. These Soviet actions in Berlin
clearly indicate their determination to increase western depend-
ence upon Soviet "tolerance" regardless of the oatcome of the
current negotiations. The establishment of a Saviet,sponssored
east mark as the curly currency in Berlin and the recent steps
taken by Soviet antho-rities to assure their evaentnal control over
Berlin's political an+d eca~aornic administration will increase
Soviet potentialities for imposing additional restrictions at a
later date and eventually forcing the western posers out od
Berlin.
S~cnri measures on Soviet railr~ds have recently
been tightened but there have not been any major transporhatian
dislocations that would result from large-scale military ship-
menu preliminary to an offensive. Ro~rever, the new security
measures, requiring dispatchers to transmit loadis~ manifests
in code sad preventing foreign personnel from observing
marshalling yards may be a prelude to highly secretive raII
shipme~s throughout the USSR. Railway rolling stock recently
observed i>at the vicinity of 1llloscva, includes~armored locomotives,
antiaircraft wagons, and large flatcars suitable for heavy mili-
tary loads.
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$OYILT UNION
30vf~t _~gmeafic prnda has mainta~ed its silence
_,._._,__.r.._
co?oerning the four~er negotiations to Berlia. Tn Germany,
the C omnaaunist-dominated press and radio tried in various
ways to m!