PROJECTIONS 2000

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00530R000300620005-1
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 2, 2013
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 1, 1988
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP9O-005308000300620005-1
~,
"Projections `~'
2000
U.S. Department of Labor
Ann McLaughlin, Secretary
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, DC 20402
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP9O-005308000300620005-1
 The primary methodological change in this set of projec-
tions involved the development of projections for five-year-
of-age groups for blacks. Participation rates were also calcu-
lated for the Asian and other tabor force, but after
examination of the historical data, there was so much year-
to-year variation that the growth patterns in labor force
participation of whites were used instead to project the
Asian and other labor force.
Labor force participation rates for women of prime
working age (25 to 54) and older ages were assumed not to
exceed that of men. After examination of the preliminary
employment projections, the assumed participation rate of
young whites was adjusted upward to reflect anticipated
growth in job opportunities for first-time jobseekers and the
declining number of youth available for those jobs.
Compositional changes in the labor force
Age. By 2000,. prime working-age persons would make
up 73 percent of the labor force, up from 67 percent in 1986
(table I ). This reflects underlying demographic changes; the
baby-boom generation will still be in the prime working
ages, but between 1995 and 2000, the "echo" of the baby
boom (their children) are projected to begin entering the
labor force. Despite this, the youth in the labor force are still
projected to account for a smaller share of the labor force in
2000 than in 1986, 16 percent, compared with 20 percent-
although their share is expected to be even lower in 1995.
The share of older workers (55 and older) also is projected
to shrink between 1986 and 2000 by about 12 percentage
points. The share of workers 55 and older is projected to be
slightly lower in 1995, because that is when the group
known as the "birth dearth of the 1930's" enters the retire-
ment years. The following tabulation shows the number, in
millions, of persons in each major age group for 1972-86
and the rate of growth for 1986-2000.
Period:
Youth
Prime working age
Older
1972 ..........
20.2
52.3
14.5
1986 ..........
23.4
79.6
14.9
2000 ???.......
22.6
100.8
15.4
Growth rate:
1972-86 ....... I.I
3.0
.2
1986-2000 ..... -.2
1.7
.2
The labor force group age 55 and older is projected to
decrease between 1986 and 1995, but then increase between
1995 and 2000. During. the latter period, this group would
be the fastest growing component of the labor force. The
youth labor force, which has been decreasing since 1980, is
also projected to decline until 1995, before increasing more
rapidly than the overall labor force. The prime working-age
group is the only one that is projected to grow throughout
the period, even though some age groups within this broader
age group are expected to decline for at least part of the
1986-2000 period. The prime age. work force grew by 3
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620005-1
percent annually between 1980 and 1986; this growth rate is
projected to drop to 2.6 percent for the rest of this decade,
1.8 percent for the early 1990's, and less than l percent
yearly until 2000.
The changes in such broad age groups are a reflection of
the changing size of underlying finer age groups, which are,
in turn, a reflection of past variability in births. To further
explicate the process, we describe the changes in various
detailed age groups.
After the baby boom (defined by the Census Bureau as
starting in 1946 and ending in 1964), the number of births
dropped until 1975, with a modest upswing in 1968-70.
Since 1976, births have increased as the women of the baby
boom became mothers, the "echo" to the baby boom. As a
result of the drop in births that started in 1960, the number
of 16-year-olds in the population and labor force began to
decline about 1976 and is.expected to continue to decline
until 1992. (There was ashort-lived "boomlet" between
1968 and 1970, resulting in an increase in the number of
teenagers during 1986-88.) The number of 17-year-olds
began to decline in 1977, 1 year after the number of 16-year-
olds. The decline should end I year later than for 16-year-
olds, or 1993. Looking at larger age groups which are less
sensitive to yearly variations in births, we see that the num-
ber of 16- to 19-year-olds began dropping in the late 1970's
and is projected to continue to do so until the mid-1990's.
Thereafter; this age group is projected to increase as the
larger number born after 1978-the echo to the baby
boom-begins to enter the labor force. The teenage labor
force is projected to drop by nearly 1.5 million between
1986 and 1992 and then to increase by 1.4 million between
1992 and 2000.
This effect-reversal in direction over the 1986 and 2000
period-also is projected to prevail for other age groups.
Numbers of labor force participants 20 to 24 years of age
began to drop in the early 1980's and are projected to de-
cline by 2.4 million people between 1986 and 1997 before
beginning to increase. The labor force ages 25 to 29, which
has been growing rapidly, is projected to decline from the
late 1980's until after 2000. The drop would be 2.9 million
between 1986 and 2000. For those in the labor force who are
30 to 34 years old, the projected decline begins in the early
1990's. In the late 1990ts, the next older group, ages 35 to
39 starts its decline in absolute numbers. The 30-to-34-year-
olds are projected to increase by 2.1 million through the
early 1990's and then decline by 2.2 million by 2000. The
35 to 39 group is projected to increase by 4.2 million be-
tween 1986 and the mid-1990's'and then to decline only
slightly by the year 2000.
Race or ethnicity. ~,~~,for~..~g
+.~1>~~f'g~v~`~~te~eM..of~
*+~'?ky~This would be significantly above their current
share of the overall labor force. Blacks made up l t percent
of labor force growth between 1972 and 1979, l6 percent
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620005-1
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620005-1
Table 3. Civilian noninstitutionai population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, actual 1972, 1979, and 1986, and
projected to 2000
Leve1(1n t
housands)
Cha
nge (In thou
sands)
Group
Growth rat
e
1972
1979
1986
~~'
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
1972-79
1979-86
1986-2000
144,122
164,865
180,589
204,699
20,743
15
723
24
110
1
9
67,835
78,021
85,799
97,962
10,186
,
7,778
,
12
163
.
2
0
1.3
1
4
0.9
15,768
34,840
18,184
40
184
16,773
47
343
15,489
57
250
2,416
5
3
-1,411
,
-1,284
.
2.1
.
-1.1
1.0
- ,6
17,227
,
19,653
,
21,683
,
25,223
,
44
2,426
7,159
2
030
9,907
540
3
2.1
1
9
2.4
1.4
76,287
86,844
94,790
106,737
10,557
,
7
946
,
11
947
.
1
9
1.4
1.1
16,887
37,595
18,827
42
692
17,293
49
672
15,999
59
094
1,940
5
0
,
-1,534.
,
-1,294
.
1.6
1.3
-1.2
.9
- ,g
21,805
,
25,325
,
27,825
,
31,644
,
97
3
520
6,980
2
500
9,422
81
3
1.8
2.2
1.2
127,904
143,898
155,433
171,230
,
15,994
,
11
535
,
9
15
797
2.2
1
7
1.4
g
14,543
17,366
19,989
24,750
2,823
,
2
623
,
4
761
.
2
6
1.1
7
-
3,601
5
164
8
719
-
,
,
.
2.0
1.5
,
,
1,562
3,555
-
5.3
3.8
-
8,208
12,343
20,490
-
4,135
8,147
-
6.0
3
7
.
_ _ _. _
_.._~...._._ ..... ............. ..oo.o~, rw?a,a~ aw rnunc
Islanders. The historic data are derived by subtracting "Black" from the "Blade and other group;
projections are made directly.
2 Persons of Hispanic orgin maybe of any race. Data for Hispanics are not available before
between 1980 and 1986, and are projected to account for 17
percent between 1986 and 1990. The following tabulation
shows the number, in millions, of persons in the labor force
and the growth -rate, in percent, by race or ethnic origin,
1972-86 and 1986-2000: ~ d ~. i. ,;?~.,
Labor force Growth rate
1972
1986 2000 1972-86 1986-20x0
Total ........
White .........
Black .........
Asian and
other ........
Hispanic ...... .
87.0 117.8 138.8 2.2 1.2
77.3 101.8 116.7 2.0 1.0.
8.7 12.7 ~~ 16. , 2.7 1.8
- 8.1 ~ ~ 14 t~'~' _ 4.1
There are projected to be 16.3 million blacks in the labor
force in 2000, up 3.7 million from 1986. This. represents a
higher annual growth rate, 1.8 percent, than those projected
for whites and for the overall labor force. Black labor force
participation is projected to grow 0.3 percent annually, as is
that of whites. By 2000, blacks are projected to account for
12 percent of the labor force, up 1 percentage point from
1986. ""~----~_
The white labor force is projected to grow by 15 million
between 1986 and 2000, reaching a level of 117 million.
Whites have historically been the largest share of the labor
force, bui this share has been dropping and is projected to
continue to do so-in 1972 it was 89 percent and by 2000,
c ~it-should be 84 percent. Thus, the white labor force, which
also includes nearly all of the Hispanics, is growing more
slowly than t e overa abor ores, .2 percent per year ass
over both the iTistorical penod, 1972-86, and the projected
period, 1986-2000. This slower growth reflects slower pop-
ulation increases (table 2), because labor force participation
of whites is projected to grow at the same rate as-the overall
labor force.
1976.
Noce: Dash indicates data not available.
Bounce: Based on U.S. Bureau of Census "middle" populatbn projections.
The Asian and other labor force is projected to increase 71
percent, or by 2.4 million persons, between 1986 and 2000.
This increase reflects a high rate of population growth,
which, in turn, reflects higher births and immigration of this
group. By 2000, persons of Asian and other races would
constitute '4 percent of the labor force, up from less than 3
percent in 1986. Over the 1986-2000 period, Asians and
others account for 11 percent of the projected growth in the
labor force. This represents a slowing in their growth rate
from the 1979-86 period during which their population was
increasing rapidly due to the entry of refugees. This entry of
refugees has virtually stopped, and it is assumed not to occur
again over the projection period.
Labor force participation of the Asian and other group is
assumed to increase at the same rate as whites at the individ-
ual age-sex level. Their participation rate is projected to be
lower than that of whites in 2000. This reflects their lower
participation in 1986. The lower rate of increase for their
overall labor force participation reflects the different age
and sex composition of this population group.
'Ftl~' Hispania labor,?-fgrce is ?projected to increase 74 per-
cent between 1-986 artd=?2~OU; .among. the lazgest increases
p%jlected..for~ay.group;, jay 2000, Hispanics are projected
10 rcent of the labor force, u from 7 rcent in
1986. This increase results in 6 million more Hispanics
entering the labor force, for a total of 14 million in 2000.
Hispanic labor force participation, which increased 0.4
percent annually between 1979 and 1986, is projected to
continue to increase at that rate over the next 14 years. This
reflects the younger age of the Hispanic population-with
more young women, overall participation rises as their
participation is projected to rise. By contrast, whites and
blacks are projected to have slower rates of increase in
participation.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620005-1
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620005-1
The greater use of automated materials handling equipment
in factories and warehouses is projected to cause employ-
ment in the industrial truck and tractor operators occupation
to decrease by about 34 percent. Employment in the truck
drivers occupation, however, is projected to grow by 21
percent, increasing by more than half a million jobs between
1986 and 2000. Other occupations expected to have average
growth rates include bus drivers, parking lot attendants,
excavation and loading machine operators, grading machine
operators, and operating engineers. The aircraft pilots and
flight engineers occupation is projected to increase faster
than the average for total employment, or by 29 percent.
Helpers, laborers, and hand material movers . Occupa-
tions in this group are generally expected to grow more
slowly than the average for total employment except for the
refuse collectors occupation, which is projected to have an
average rate of growth through the year 2000. Declines in
the machine feeders and offbearers occupation (6 percent)
and freight, stock, and material movers occupation (2 per-
cent) are expected as a result of technological changes.
Low and high projections
The distribution of employment by broad occupational
group varies little among the projected alternatives for 2000
because of offsetting changes within the broad occupational
groups. (See table 7.) In specific occupations, however,
some significant differences may exist between the moder-
ate and either the low or high alternatives. The differences
in occupational employment from one alternative to another
are caused only by differences in projected industry employ-
ment levels, because the same set of occupational staffing
Table 6. Fastest declining occupations, 1986-2000,
moderate alternative
[Numbers in thousands]
Empfoy"t,"t
wrcern Beeline
OeeupeHOn
1986
~
In emW~M
Electrical and electronic assemblers ..........
'288
118
-53.7
Eledronic semioorMuda processors .........
29
t4
-51.1
Railroad conductors and yaromasters .........
29
17
-40.9
Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators ....
42
25
-39.9
Gas and petroleum plant and system
occupations ..........................
31
20
-34.3
Industrial tnxdc and trades operates ..........
428
283
-33.8
Shoe sewing machine operates and lenders ...
27
18
-32.1
Station installers and repairers, teleptxxte ......
58
40
-31.8
Chemical equipment cattrdlers, operates
and tenders ..........................
73
52
-29.7
Chemical plan and system operators .........
33
23
-29.8
Stertogrephers ..........................
178
128
-28.2
Farmers ...............................
.182
850
-28.1
statistical darks ............ .........
71
52
-26.d
Textile draw-0ut and winding machine operators
and tenders ..........................
219
164
-25.2
Central oKce and Pax installers and repairers ...
74
57
-23.1
Farm workers ...........................
940
750
-20.3
Coil winders, tapers, and finishers ...........
34
28
-18.5
CentraloBioe operators ...................
42
3i
-17.9
Directory assistance operates ..............
32
27
-17.7
Compositors, typesetters, and arrangers,
precision .............................
30
25
-17.1
Table 7. Occupational employment distribution, 1986 and
projected to 2000
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620005-1
patterns were used for all alternatives. Total employment in
the moderate trend projections varies by only about 4 per-
cent from the high alternative and about 6 percent from the
low alternative. Therefore, the greatest numerical dif-
ferences for specific occupations exist between the low
alternative .projected employment and the moderate trend
employment; the following text tabulation shows these
differences:
Salespersons, retail ............... 216,000
Secretaries ...................... 188,000
General managers and top
executives .................... 145,000
Ttvck drivers, light and heavy ...... 138,000
Janitors and cleaners .............. 136,000
General office clerks .............. 136,000
Cashiers ........................ 125,000
Bookkeeping, accounting, and
auditing clerks .............. . .. 123,000
Blue-collar worker supervisors ...... l 13,000
Waiters and waitresses ......... , , . 94,000
Uses and implications
Bt.s occupational projections are used extensively for ca-
reer guidance and provide the background for analyses of
future employtrtent opportunities in the st.s Occupational
Outlook Handbook .Job outlook discussions in the 1988-89
edition of the Handbook ,scheduled for release in the spring
of 1988, will use the projections presented in this article.
These projections also provide information for analyzing a
variety of issues, including the relation of education and
training to job opportunities and labor market conditions for
minority groups.
Educational attainment. -~~heetr,vraitiet~to.~irstidi-~,
c8t~tl'rar?the~charrgrna-:oceapati~nat~stttretttre`~of't~pfsytnent~-
Total, all ocapations ...................
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Managerial and managementtelated workers , , ,
9.5
10.2
10.2
10.3
Engineers, architects, and surveyors .........
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.8
Natural sdentlsts and computer specialists , , , . ,
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
Teachers, librarians, and counsebrs ........ , .
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.3
Heaflh-diagnosing and treating specalists .....
2.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
Other professanal specalists ...............
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.5
Technicians ............................
3.3
3.8
3.8
3.8
Marketing and salesworkers ? ? ? . ? ? ? ? ........
11.3
12.3
12.3
12.2
Administrative support, including clerical .......
17.8
18.6
18.8
16.8
Service workers .........................
15.7
17.3
17.2
17.1
AgricuMure, forestry, and fishing workers .......
3.2
2.6
2.6
2.5
&uetollar worker supervisors ..............
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.5
Construction trades and extractive workers .....
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.8
Mechanics and repairers ..................
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.0
Predsion production and plant systems
occupations ..........................
2.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
Machine setters and operators ..............
4.4
3.5
3.6
3.8
Assemblers and other hand workers ..........
2.4
1.9
1.9
2.0
Transportation and material moving workers ....
4.3
4.0
4.0
4.0
Helpers and laborers .....................
3.8
3.4
3.4
3.4
 n
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620005-1
tcxal-?etnpt~y~nt,. while etnpioymen~>~=~th~Fir~#I~!'~?~tviro~~ clusters
grasps"~~w~tlt;4r worker=had'tles~~tltli~ ~irttilF'"+~Ii' >~~`~~
except
a prap~tion'~~Qf total?employ~Ftt:-The proportion of total
employment is expected to decline the most in group III, the
group which requires the least amount of education. It
should be noted that the service workers group-the only
occupational cluster in the educational attainment group III
with median school years completed above 12 years-is
increasing as a proportion of total employment. All other
occupational clusters in this group are declining (some by
very significant amounts). Conversely, in group I, all the
Table 9. Projected 1986-21100 growth rate and percent of
total employment in 1986 accounted for by blacks, Hispan-
ics, and women, moderate altemativet
RoJeeted
PeraM of total
tlaupt