NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 10 JANUARY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000100010027-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 24, 2010
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: January 10, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
10 January 1984
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Contents
El Salvador: Military Activity .................................................... 1
Suriname: Bouterse To Form New Government .................... 2
UK-Argentina: Maneuvering Over the Falklands .................... 3
Turkey: Preparing for Local Elections .................................... 4
International: Radio Conference ............................................ 5
Israel: Labor Party Optimism .................................................. 6
USSR: Remarks on Arms Control Talks .................................. 7
Philippines: Movement To Boycott Elections ........................ 8
Tunisia-Libya: Pipeline Sabotaged ........................................ 12
Denmark: Parliamentary Elections .......................................... 13
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EL SALVADOR: Military Activity
Fighting occurred north of the capital late last week as the Army
began taking steps to recover from its recent setbacks at El Paraiso
and the Cuscatlan Bridge.
As a result of the defeats last week, the commander of the 4th
Infantry Brigade has been relieved, and one of the Army's best
units-the Belloso immediat -reaction battaloon-has been
redeployed to Chalatenan o
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The US defense attache reports that the government has begun
construction of a national basic training center in La Union that could
be in operation by early next month. He also indicates that the general
staff is considering basing a new immediate-reaction battalion in
Chalatenango later this year.
Comment: The high command is concerned about possible
guerrilla strikes against key economic and military targets. The
operations now under way may have been initiated to preempt the
insurgents, as well as to improve morale.
Over the longer term, the establishment of the national training
center will help standardize recruit training. It eventually will provide a
steady flow of replacement personnel to operational units
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SURINAME: Bouterse To Form New Government
The formation of a new government following the resignation of
Prime Minister Alibux's cabinet could be a difficult task as Army
Commander Bouterse tries to deal with recalcitrant strikers.
Bouterse announced in a televised speech on Sunday that a new
government would be formed in cooperation with trade unions,
business leaders, and members of the National Unity Movement. Until
then, according to the US Embassy, Alibux's cabinet will remain in a
caretaker status. Late last week the government announced plans to
suspend income tax and other controversial tax and price increases
pending further discussions.
In his speech, Bouterse also appealed to striking bauxite workers
to return to their jobs and work with the regime to solve the country's
problems. According to the Embassy, however, the strikers have not
yielded and are demanding more concessions. The one-day strike by
electric workers, which led to a power shutdown in the capital on
Friday, is seen as a reaction to the government's plans to nationalize
the power company and not as an expression of solidarity with
bauxite workers.
Comment: The selection of a new cabinet could be a long
process. Bouterse portrayed the military as the true representatives
of the people and reconfirmed his intention to impose his revolution.
By changing his government, Bouterse probably hopes to
overcome some of the widespread opposition to his policies. A new
government, however, will face the same lack of popular support and
severe economic problems as Alibux's cabinet so long as Bouterse
remains the dominant force.
Bouterse evidently believes that he has solved the three-week-old
labor dispute by suspending the controversial tax increases and
removing the officials he blames. If the strikers continue to reject his
overtures or to protest against any tax increases, however, Bouterse
is likely to conclude that they no longer have any justifiable reason,
and he could then resort to force.
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zip
Falkland Islands
(Islas Malvinas)
(administered by U.K.,
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
West
Falkland
Falkland Stanley
`Airfield
under
construction
South
AHantIC
Oceaa
South Georgia`
(Falkland Islands)
South Sandwich
Islands
(Falkland Islands)
10 January 1984
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UK-ARGENTINA: Maneuvering Over the Falklands
Prime Minister Thatcher continues to combine conciliatory
rhetoric with a tough line on sovereignty to fend off domestic and
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foreign pressure for concessions on the Falklands.
Both Thatcher and Foreign Secretary Howe recently reiterated
that the UK will not negotiate the sovereignty of the islands. At the
same time, Thatcher stressed her desire to normalize diplomatic and
commercial ties with Argentina. She has offered to lift the exclusion
zone around the Falklands in return for an Argentine declaration that
hostilities in the South Atlantic have ended.
Comment: Thatcher is aware of the growing belief in the UK, even
among Conservatives, that a "fortress Falklands" policy is too
expensive to be an effective long-term policy. The British also are
worried that President Alfonsin's diplomatic strategy will resume
increasing US pressure on the UK to resume negotiations.
Thatcher still believes, however, that Buenos Aires is a long way
from persuading the islanders to accept Argentine rule. To obtain a
status report on local sentiment, the Prime Minister is sending a
senior Foreign Office official to the islands this week for a six-day
visit. Thatcher remains committed to the principle that no concession
on sovereignty is possible without agreement by the local population.
The British are willing to make cosmetic gestures in order to
normalize relations with Argentina and thereby obtain implicit
recognition of their control over the Falklands. On the other hand,
London is unlikely to make more substantive concessions, such as
halting construction of a new airfield. Thatcher is counting on the
airfield to facilitate economic development and, more importantly, to
reduce the cost of garrisoning the Falklands by making rapid
reinforcement easier.
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TURKEY: Preparing for Local Elections
The National Assembly's recent approval of a government bill
allowing all major parties to participate in local elections in March sets
the stage for an early test of Turkey's new democracy.
The legislation reverses an earlier intention to allow only the three
parties that ran in the national election last November to take part in
the local contests. Only the Communist Party and other extremist
groups will continue to be barred. The government decided late last
week to change the time of the local elections from summer or fall to
25 March.
Comment: The hostilities that may develop during the campaign
and the current splintering of the party system could revive tensions
between civilian leaders and the military. Prime Minister Ozal,
however, probably sees opening up the election as a way of blunting
both domestic and foreign criticism of the new political system by
demonstrating that Turkey is irreversibly on the road to democracy.
He presumably hopes that advancing the date of the election will
strengthen his position before economic or terrorist problems can
damage the standing of his Motherland Party and before opponents
can organize effective campaigns.
Both the campaign and the elections involve risks for Ozal and the
country's fledgling democracy. The decision to let most parties run
opens the way for several parties across the ideological spectrum to
develop large bases of support. The Correct Way Party, the successor
to the banned Justice Party, could help destroy the declining military-
backed National Democracy Party and challenge the Motherland
Party for the support of Turkey's large center-right constituency.
The advent of the new Social Democratic Party could divide the
center-left vote now dominated by the Populist Party. The latter
currently is the government's most effective parliamentary opposition.
The Islamic-oriented Prosperity Party may become the focal point for
supporters of the once formidable National Salvation Party.
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The International Telecommunication Union convenes today in
Geneva for a High-Frequency World Administrative Radio Conference
to reach agreement on a method for planning assignments of the
shortwave broadcast spectrum.
The US, with the Voice of America, Radio Free Europe, and Radio
Liberty, is the second-largest user after the USSR of the high freqency
spectrum. Previous conferences did not identify a planning method
that meets both the minimum requirements of major broadcasters for
flexibility in use of the frequencies and the demands of the less
developed countries for improved quality of service. The ITU has
scheduled a one-third increase in the use of the shortwave band in the
early 1990s, and broadcasters' demands on these frequencies
already exceed available broadcast hours by almost 50 percent.
Comment: A planning method that meets the needs of both
major and minor broadcasters is technically feasible, but this first of
two planned sessions of the Conference probably will not agree on
one. The Conference is likely to refer several methods to a working
group, which will report to the second session scheduled for October
1986. If the Conference adopts a rigid spectrum planning method, US
broadcasting will be restricted.
The Conference also could be impeded by issues not directly
related to planning. For example, Canada and the UK have submitted
resolutions against jamming, and reports from US Embassies indicate
that most ITU members believe that jamming is an East-West political
issue they would prefer to avoid at the Conference. Ideological debate
over the right of a nation to control information crossing its borders
and the question of Israeli participation are among the other
extraneous issues that may arise.
The USSR almost certainly will oppose any type of antijamming
resolution. If the Conference agrees to place limits on transmitter
power or on broadcasting of the same program on multiple
frequencies, the ability of the US to counter Soviet jamming will be
impaired.
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ISRAEL: Labor Party Optimism
Labor Party Chairman Peres asked visiting US officials last week
to tell Jordan's King Hussein that Labor expects to return to power in
the next several months. He said that the party would then move
quickly to stop settlement activity on the West Bank and to begin
negotiations with Jordan. Peres asked his visitors to inform Hussein
that Labor contemplates returning 60 percent of the West Bank to
Jordan. An Israeli public opinion poll conducted late last month shows
that, if elections were held soon, Labor would win 57 of the Knesset's
120 seats and the ruling Likud only 41.
Comment: Labor has displayed unusual unity in recent months
and, anticipating elections, appears to be defining alternative
approaches to Israel's pressing problems. The continuing budget
debate and labor unrest could provoke a government crisis and lead
to early elections. Some of Prime Minister Shamir's disgruntled
coalition partners, however, are reluctant to carry matters that far for
fear of losing seats. Some Labor supporters probably would oppose
Peres's proposal to withdraw from most of the West Bank.
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USSR: Remarks on Arms Control Talks
The editor of Pravda, in an interview on Sunday in the Bulgarian
party newspaper, expressed doubt that arms control talks can
resume so long as the current US Administration is in office. At the
same time, he indicated that Moscow has made no final decision on
resumption, and he did not repeat the usual precondition that INF
missiles be withdrawn. Pravda noted on Saturday that "even today"
there remains an "approximate balance" of NATO and Soviet
intermediate-range weapons.
Comment: The editor's remarks indicate that, while the Soviets
continue to express pessimism over the resumption of talks, they
have not foreclosed any option. In mid-November, however, the editor
said that START and MBFR talks would not be interrupted. If his
failure to refer to the precondition that US missiles be withdrawn is
intentional, it may be a sign that Moscow is considering revising its
demand. Pravda's statement about an "approximate balance,"
coming shortly after US missiles were declared operational, also
appears to point in this direction.
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PHILIPPINES: Movement To Boycott Elections
A congress of opposition leaders met last weekend, elected
15 representative leaders, and decided to boycott the National
Assembly elections in May if President Marcos does not agree to
repeal his authoritarian powers, purge the voter lists, and establish a
neutral commission to oversee the polling. The Communist Party
favors the boycott, and imprisoned Communist front leader Morales
is among the 15 opposition leaders elected by the congress. UNIDO,
the 12-party coalition, and other moderate opposition groups still
favor participating in the elections. On the other hand, the Catholic
Bishops' Conference of the Philippines has changed its position and
has advised Filipinos that it would not be morally wrong to refuse to
take part.
Comment: The boycott movement is gathering momentum and is
likely to divide the opposition further. The election of Morales reflects
the Communist Party's growing influence. The UNIDO coalition plans
to participate whether or not Marcos makes additional concessions,
and its credibility will suffer if the boycott continues to gain wider
support.
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The government has announced that the economy grew by
5 percent in 1983, or twice what it had projected. The regime claims
that the rise is the result of increased labor productivity, energy
conservation, and growth in nonsugar exports and in the construction
sector. For this year, Cuban planners are predicting a 4- to 4.5-
percent growth rate.
Comment: The announcement probably was intended to help
cushion the impact of the government's repeated warnings about
likely increases in austerity. Available data indicate that at best the
economy grew only 2 percent in real terms in 1983, but the Cuban
figure probably is higher because Havana normally releases data on
growth rates in nominal rather than real terms. The government
apparently stimulated activity in the construction sector, which is
labor-intensive and not heavily dependent on hard currency imports,
to offset a decline of more than 10 percent in sugar production and
exports. Havana is likely soon to request rescheduling of debt falling
due this year, and it probably had foreign creditors in mind when it
made the announcement.
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TUNISIA-LIBYA: Pipeline Sabotaged
Tunisia has accused "commandos" from Libya of blowing up a
Tunisian gas pipeline near the frontier with Libya. Tunisian officials
told the US Embassy they have "definite proof" that four saboteurs
crossed the border on Saturday and set off charges on an old feeder
line before returning to Libya. The resulting fire was brought under
control on Sunday. Tunis has sent a note to Tripoli concerning the 25X1
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Comment: About 60,000 Tunisian workers live in Libya, and
Tripoli recruits them for terrorist training during periods of strained
relations. Although such dissidents are the most likely perpetrators of
the blast, the extent of the Libyan Government's involvement is
unclear.
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DENMARK: Parliamentary Elections
Prime Minister Schlueter's center-right minority coalition is
expected to gain in the parliamentary elections today, which were
made necessary by the Socialists' rejection last month of the
government's budget. Polls indicate that Schlueter's Conservative
Party may double its 26 seats in the 179-member parliament on the
strength of economic issues, although largely at the expense of its
coalition partners. Such surveys also suggest that the Social
Democratic opposition may give up four seats to the coalition.
Comment: The expected gains would allow the Conservative-led
minority coalition to remain in power. Prospects are less certain for
the formation of a majority coalition, which probably would require
the support of the opposition Progress Party or the centrist Radical
Liberal Party. Those two parties have been erratic in their support of
government economic and foreign policies. Even with election gains,
a minority government may yet be forced into a compromise on the
budget and could a ain be threatened b an anti-INF Socialist
opposition.
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