STAFF NOTES: SOVIET UNION EASTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 31, 2012
• Sequence Number: 34
• Publication Date: May 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part -
Sanitized Copy Approved for
Release 2012/05/31 : r4
CIA-RDP86T00608R00040008
Declassified in Part -
Sanitized Copy Approved for
Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R00040008
Cr4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
g'l
H0c.m
Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
Top Secret
Top Secret
ibti 25X1
May 1, 1.975
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
SOVIET UNION. EASTERN EUROPE
This publication is prepared for regional specialists In thz Washington com-
munity by the USSR ? Eastern Europe Division, Office of Current Intel-
ligence, with occasional contributions from other offices within the
Directorate of Intelligence. Comments and queries are weicome.
CONTENTS
May 1, 1975
The Husak Campaign Against Dubcek
6
Soviet First Quarter Industrial
Production: Good But Not Great 9
Bulgaria Proposes "Importing"
Cypriot Workers 12
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
. eb
V0046?1
40 Next 4 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
The Husak Campaign.ilasinst Dubcek
The US embassy in Prague has advanced some
speculative, but plausible, reasons for party chief
Husak's recent virulent attack on Alexander Dubcek
and the subsequent hardening of the regime's line
on dissidents.
The embassy suggests that Husak, who has fa-
vored working toward reconciliation with those
purged for their activities in 1968, met with bitter
opposition from the party hard liners. The resolve
of the latter had been strengthened by the recent
increase in activity by the dissidents: the pub-
lication abroad of a series of documents dealing
with events of 1968, such as the "Smrkovsky mem-
oirs"; evidence of a samizdat "reform program"
produced by leading dissidents; and finally the
splashy appearance in the West of the "Dubcek
letter," accompanied by Swedish Prime Minister
Palme's stinging criticism of the lack of democ-
racy in Czechoslovakia. These incidents provided
a splendid opportunity for Husak's opponents to
attack him.
As a good tactician, however, Husak evidently
moved quickly to steal his opponents' thunder. His
surprising ttack on Dubcek came while two of the
leading hard liners, Vasil Bilak and Milos Jakes,
were out of the country.
While Husak's sudden turn away from modera-
tion might suggest a weakening of his power base,
he could, by pressing the attack, emerge stronger
than before. It is possible that a trade-off has
been struck, with Husak directing his attack
against the leading 1968 reformers--a move the hard
liners certainly welcome--but keeping the door open
for rehabilitating lesser lights.
My 1, 1975
-6-
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
Moscow's role in the anti-Dubcek campaign re-
mains clouded. The Xremlin's support has been only
moderate, although the Soviet press has replayed
Husak's condemnation of Dubcok, and Soviet diplomats
have supported Husak in hia polemics with Swedish
Prime Minister Palma. While Husak's actions could
embarrass the Soviets, who wish to wind up CSCE and
convene a series of international Communist party
confarences, Moscow's priorities in Czechoslovakia
are clear. Husak (backed by 70,000 Soviet troops)
must keep the political situation in hand and pre-
vent any backsliding toward the mood of 1968. His
25X1 ability to continue to convince Moscow that he can
handle the situation is crucial to his survival.
May 1, 1975
25X1
-7-
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
De
classified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
Soviet First Quarter Industrial Production:
Good But Not Great
Soviet industrial production increased 6.4 per-
cent in the first quarter this year over the same
period last year, a rate of growth slightly above
the average since 1970. Although this is adequate
to meet the 1975 target, Soviet leaders expressed
disappointment because performance lags behind the
6.8 percent growth for 1974 as a whole.
At a meeting of the Council of Ministers on
AprIl 23, Kosygin excoriated industrial ministries
and construction organizations for a host of sins--
inefficient capacity utilization, incomplete con-
struction, lags in the implementation of new tech-
nology, and insufficient attention to the quality
of production. The construction industry and con-
sumer goods producers were specifically warned that
they are expected to meet their annual targets. In-
dustrial suppliers to the agricultural sector--pro-
ducers of tractors, other agricultural machinery and
spare parts, fertilizers, and fuel--were also singled
out for special exhortation to ensure a successful
harvest this year.
The Soviet consumer probably can look forward
to another year of some improvement, particularly
in the quality of food. Industrial production of .
meat was 10 percent above a compa7able period last
year and 6 percent above the prey: ushigh reached
in 1972. Although vegetable oil c cput was off 2
percent from the unprecedented 197'. levels--reflect-
ing a smaller 1974 sunflower crop--there should be
enough vegetable oil to meet domestic needs. Produc-
tion of fish products, sausage, and whole milk pro-
ducts registered gains of 5 to 6 percent. Butter
production dropped 11 percent compared to the first
quarter of 1974, but this may be a planned cutback to
slow the accumulation of butter stocks.
May 1, 1975
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034_4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
Supplies of durable and soft goods should also
improve. The pr of consumer durables has
grown faster than during the corresponding period
last year, when excess inventory levels were being
reduced by restraining production. The most notice-
able increases in production are for televisions,
washing machines, and refrigerators. Production of
soft goods continue0 its glacial pace; sewn goods
had the best record, and the increase here was only
5 percent.
The producer durables sector remains the
fastest growing portion of Soviet industry, although
the 1975 growth rate is down slightly frcm last year.
The fastest growing elements are computer,n, electric
locomotives, cars and buses, equipment for light
industry, and metal-cutting machine tools. Produc-
tion of turbines, oil equipment, and freight cars
declined.
Overall, the materials sector matches last year's
performance. The growth of the electric power and
petroleum and gas branches has slowed in relation to
last year. On the other hand, coal, forest products,
paper products, and chemicals are growing faster.
May 1, 1975
-10-
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
11Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
L3.21 t_a..giAl)roporion
Llun Workern
Bulgaria has offered to employ about 1,500
Greek-Cypriot construction workera thin year.
Thin would help to relieve unemployment in Cyprun.
Final agreement between Sofia and Niconia
hingea on payment arrangements. Bulgaria wanta
to handl(' the cost of salarion by moans of an
existing clearing agreement?payment would then
be in kind. Cyprun, however, sneks at least part
of the payment in hard currency.
14 making the offer, Sofia in probably trying
to ucore political points with Cyprun and anpecially
with Athens. The Bulgarians have been actively
courting the Karamanlis government, and are eagerly
socking waya to demonstrate their support for the
Greeko.
Sofia's intrusion into the Cyprun Josue will,
however, add another complicating factor to Bulgaria'n
relationn with Turkey. Ankara i md din leased
over Sofia'n pro-Greek position.
May 1, 1975
25X1
-12-
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/31 :
CIA-RDP86T00608R000400080034-4
25X1
25X1