NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 6 MARCH 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: March 6, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Director of
I ) Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
6 March 1984
Top Secret-
Copy 285
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
March 19V4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Top Secret
Contents
Iran-Iraq: Iranians Prepare for New Attack
Lebanon: Reactions to Abrogation of Accord
Philippines: Status of Assassination Investigation
Argentina: Debt Negotiating Strategy
Tunisia: Possible Cabinet Changes
Turkey: Selling State Enterprises
USSR-Syria: High-Level Soviet To Visit
Chad: Planned Government Operation
Ell Salvador: Strikes Continue
Nigeria: Religious Rioting in the North
Jamaica: IMF Negotiations Resume
Canada-US: Cruise Missile Testing Issue
Guatemala: Election Preparations .. ....... 11
USSR: Criticism of Economists .... 12
Costa Rica: Foreign Exchange Crisis 12
Eastern Europe: Drought Hits Winter Grain Crops 13
Special Analysis
USSR: Views of the Leadership ... . 14
6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Ton Secret 25X1 25X1
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret 25X1
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
IRAN-IRAQ: Iranians Prepare for New Attack
The Iranians are continuing their preparations for a major
offensive in the Al Basrah area.
were shelling Iraqi defensive positions in the northern and eastern
parts of the Al Basrah front and that they were continuing work on a
pontoon bridge across the marsh.
In a speech on Sunday, Ayatollah Khomeini criticized Iranians
who want to end the war. He also denied Iran had suffered heavy
losses in the recent fighting and castigated Iranians who argue that
Iran should try to reach a settlement.
Comment: Iran may be planning attacks both north and east of Al
Basrah. The Iranians probably hope to use the new bridge to move
more forces into the marsh area for an offensive to the south to
outflank Iraqi defenses. The attacks could come late this week, when
Iran completes redeploying troops to the south.
Khomeini's speech is another indication that large numbers of
Iranians are weary of the high casualties and economic burdens of
the war. Conservative senior ayatollahs who oppose Khomeini's
policies may be willing to urge changes on Khomeini again if the
dissatisfaction leads to protest demonstrations. Khomeini is in no
danger of losing control, however, and he is unlikely to change his
position
Top Secret
1 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Beirut
International
Airport
t~tk'ese, areas of-control
Syrian
Druze
Druze and Shia
Lebanese Army forces
Lebanese Army brigade
Top Secret
Top Secret
arBTul ch 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
LEBANON: Reactions to Abrogation of Accord
Reactions to the government's abrogation yesterday of the troop
withdrawal accord with Israel have followed widely expected lines,
and all sides appear to be weighing their next moves.
Opposition leaders now are expressing their willingness to attend
reconcilation talks in Geneva. Israeli Prime Minister Shamir has
denounced the move, stating that Israel will go its own way to
guarantee the security of its northern border.
The command council of the Lebanese Forces Christian militia
called for a unified Christian stand to resist all policies that Syria may
try to impose on the government. According to press reports,
however, the Christian Phalange Party politburo and central council
met in joint session yesterday and reaffirmed confidence in President
Gemayel.
Fighting continued yesterday along the Green Line in Beirut and
in the Kharrub region south of the Damur River, despite the
announcement of a cease-fire.
Comment: Christian hardliners will have to proceed cautiously.
The Phalange supports Gemayel, and opposition on the part of the
Lebanese Forces could isolate them from the rest of the Christian
community.
Any move by the Lebanese Forces to challenge Gemayel would
risk Syrian pressure on behalf of the President. Some members of
the Lebanese Forces probably want to avoid the kind of direct
confrontation with Syria that occurred in 1977 and the possibility of
Syrian-instigated fighting aimed at destroying them.
The Army and opposition militias may be trying to prevent each
other from preparing to occupy French positions along the Green Line
in the event the French contingent of the Multinational Force
withdraws. Christian militia forces in the Kharrub may have started
the fighting there in order to demonstrate their independence from
the government and their opposition to the cancellation of the accord. 25X1
2 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
PHILIPPINES: Status of Assassination Investigation
The investigation of the assassination of Benigno Aquino is
moving closer to implicating Armed Forces Chief of Staff Ver, a
development that could have severe political consequences for
President Marcos.
The Agrava Board heard testimony last week from the children of
the accused alleging Ver is involved in a coverup of the assassination
plot. Ver has offered to testify before the Board, perhaps as early as
this week, to refute the children's claim that their mother disappeared
after having been taken to see him in January.
The US Embassy reports that a prominent opposition leader may
have information that links Ver to the incident but that he fears
retaliation by Ver if he discloses it. The Board is widely expected to
implicate senior military officers in the assassination.
Comment: Ver is willing to take any action he believes necessary
to protect his interests, including the elimination of witnesses who
could implicate him. He may try to persuade Marcos to impede the
Board's investigation.
If the Board is allowed to determine its own course, it is likely to
implicate the military. This would reinforce the public's belief that Ver
was involved.
The assassination could become a key election issue in the weeks
ahead. If Ver interferes with the Board's proceedings, Marcos would
be forced to make a tough decision. He would have to choose
between sacrificing Ver or suffering even more severe political
repercussions as a result of appearing to protect those responsible
for killing Aquino.
Top Secret 25X1
3 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
ARGENTINA: Debt Negotiating Strategy
The government apparently believes that foreign commercial
banks will have to disburse new loans this month to avoid showing
losses on their books, whether or not Argentina signs a letter of intent 25X1
US banks face the prospect of having up to half of their Argentine
portfolios fall into a nonperforming status on 31 March because of 25X1
overdue interest payments.
President Alfonsin and Minister of Economy Grinspun have
stated that they will not accept an IMF program that might cause
a recession, and negotiations with the Fund show no signs of being
completed before the end of March.
Comment: Argentina probably does not have enough
international reserves to pay its overdue debts without obtaining
new loans, but Grinspun is unlikely to rush into an unpopular IMF
agreement. The government probably is counting on the pressure
of time to gain more lenient terms from the IMF.
Alternatively it may hope that the consortium of foreign banks--
spurred by US members-will find a way to disburse new loans
without a letter of intent. As a result of Grinspun's tactics, however,
bankers are likely to take a harder line during debt rescheduling talks
later this year for some $20 billion due to be repaid in 1984.
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Top Secret
TUNISIA: Possible Cabinet Changes
Continued unrest since the bread riots in January has prompted
President Bourguiba to consider key cabinet shifts as a way of
placating the populace.
The US Embassy reports the government also may be backing
away from the phased 20-percent increase in the price of bread it
announced after the riots. Instead, it is now considering a single
symbolic increase of 5 to 10 percent.
Over the past three weeks, strikes by bank, postal, and
communications workers as well as teachers and other public
employees have disrupted city services.
Comment: The riots in January have unleashed the frustration of
workers who are angry with the government's procrastination in
addressing labor demands. Union leaders, who supported the
government during the riots, have begun to lose control of workers.
They are unlikely to reassert discipline unless the government agrees
to costly wage increases.
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Top Secret
TURKEY: Selling State Enterprises
A new law allowing the government to sell inefficient state
enterprises to private firms carries some potential political liabilities for
Ozal wants to funnel the proceeds into development projects he
believes will help eventually to reduce Turkey's high unemployment
rate. Opposition leaders on the left and the right of the governing
Motherland Party have criticized the measure.
Comment: The new legislation is consistent with other moves by
Ozal to make the economy more responsive to market forces. It is
likely to please organizations, such as the World Bank, which have
long advocated reforming the state-owned firms. The firms account
for nearly half of Turkey's industrial production and are widely viewed
as a key structural problem for the economy.
The law could become the most controversial part of Ozal's
economic program and an issue in the local elections later this
month. It is a dramatic departure from the tradition of heavy state
involvement in the economy.
Ozal could suffer politically if private investors who buy state firms
fire workers. Layoffs would anger the labor unions, which are already
asking for large wage increases and will soon be allowed to strike.
Ozal may have difficulty selling some of the firms, particularly
those that are overstaffed and poorly managed. To the extent he is
successful, he will have cash for badly needed work on economic
infrastructure projects.
The only other source of funds for these projects is foreign
borrowing. If international lenders are asked to increase their already
substantial exposure in Turkey, they could prove reluctant.
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
6 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
USSR-SYRIA: High-Level Soviet To Visit
The Soviets and Syrians have announced that Politburo member
Aliyev will go to Syria during the first half of this month. He was
originally scheduled to go in February, but he postponed his visit
when Andropov died. Aliyev will be the highest ranking Soviet to visit
Damascus since Foreign Minister Gromyko traveled there in 1980. His
talks will be the first at a senior level since November, when Foreign
Comment: Moscow probably hopes Aliyev's visit will be
interpreted widely as reflecting the USSR's ability to play a major role
in the Middle East. The Soviets presumably want to discuss how best
to capitalize on the recent events in Lebanon. In view of President
Assad's past reluctance to keep the Soviets informed about his
strategy there, however, Aliyev's main task may be to gather
information rather than give advice. He is likely to be especially
interested in gauging the regime's stability after the recent infighting
among Assad's key lieutenants.
Top Secret
7 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
Dissident Activity
15th parallel
French defens/ve line
Chi
Top Secret
6 March 1984
Egypt
L
Sudan
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Top Secret
CHAD: Planned Government Operation
The government is assembling about 2,000 troops for a major
clearing operation against 1,000 to 1,500 dissidents in central Chad.
The sweep will encompass much of Guera and Salamat Provinces
and logistic preparations and
operational planning have been extensive. Dissident activity in central
and southern Chad has grown in the past several weeks. Libya has
increased the flow of rebels, arms. and funds to the weakly defended
central region.
Comment: The sweep zone is the operating area of dissident
chieftain Achiek Ibn Oumar, who the Libyans are suggesting as an
alternative to both President Habre and dissident leader Goukouni
to head a new government in N'Djamena. The buildup of dissident
forces in central Chad is important to Libyan efforts to increase
pressure on Habre, and it may strengthen Achiek's standing in
dissident circles. Habre's sweep is intended to weaken Achiek's
prospects. Government troops should enjoy some military success
against the dissidents, whose supply lines are long and insecure.
Workers in the public sector have rejected the government's offer
of a 10-percent wage increase and more organizations may join the
unions that are on strike. According to the US Embassy, a general
strike could develop, paralyzing the capital and other urban centers.
Water workers are among those on strike, and water is being cut off
in some sections of the capital and in other cities. To prevent
sabotage, Army units are guarding water facilities.
Comment: The insurgents reportedly have been planning to
use leftist labor unions to disrupt the presidential election, and
the striking unions are unlikely to accept readily any new proposals
offered by the government. To maintain public services during
the crucial election period, the government may detain strike
leaders temporarily and place utilities under military control.
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
Muslim Fundamentalist Activity
Niger
~IEa~una
Benin
igeri a~
Lake
Chad
Chad
IC
J .
iiratsna j Us
LAGOS
Cameroon
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
NIGERIA: Religious Rioting in the North
The government is relying on Army troops to put down weeklong
riots by Muslim fundamentalists in the capital of the state of Gongola.
Many of the religious fanatics have escaped from the area, and
neighboring states are taking measures to guard against the spread
of disturbances. The US Embassy, citing press accounts, reports that
the Army used artillery to quell the riots and that 1,000 people may
have been killed. Followers of the minority Maitatsine sect were
involved in similar disturbances in northern cities in 1980 and 1982
that resulted in the deaths of several thousand people.
Comment: General Buhari, who visited the scene of the riots, has
responded firmly to the first direct test of his government's ability to
maintain authority. The episode, however, has temporarily diverted
the regime from its priority goals of economic recovery and curbing
corruption. There are no reports of foreign meddling in the rioting.
Buhari has sought to court the larger Muslim community, and he
included a leading Muslim in a recent government delegation sent to
Saudi Arabia to discuss oil and economic issues.
JAMAICA: IMF Negotiations Resume
The IMF last week agreed to resume negotiations with Jamaica
for a standby loan after Kingston paid $37 million in overdue debt
to the Fund. Jamaican officials plan to cut capital and current
expenditures by reducing or eliminating food subsidies and by
dropping 4,500 workers from the government payroll. The Jamaicans
also have been authorized to negotiate a more flexible foreign
exchange-rate system, according to US Embassy sources.
Meanwhile, the government received another economic setback last
week when Reynolds Metals announced its decision to terminate its
mining operations in Jamaica in favor of cheaper bauxite sources in
Africa.
Comment: The IMF may insist on further cuts in recurrent
expenditures, particularly in light of the loss of over $25 million in
government revenues that had been expected from Reynolds this
year. The opposition will blame Prime Minister Seaga for the country's
growing unemployment, which has been aggravated by budget cuts
and the loss of 200 jobs from the Reynolds operation, and for rising
inflation. Seaga is likely to intensify his search for alternative markets
for Jamaican bauxite, including increased purchases by the US for its
stockpiles.
Top Secret
9 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
CANADA-US: Cruise Missile Testing Issue
The antinuclear coalition yesterday asked a federal court to halt
the cruise missile tests scheduled for today, pending a ruling by the
Supreme Court on the constitutionality of the cabinet's decision to
permit them. The Federal Court has indicated it will respond quickly
to the request. In an effort to reduce criticism from peace groups,
Ottawa postponed announcing the date of the test until the last
Comment: The tests in northern Alberta almost certainly will
touch off limited demonstrations across the country. The antinuclear
coalition appeared to have lost much support following a ruling by an
Appeals Court last December that stated the government had the
constitutional power to permit the tests. Nonetheless, the actual start
of testing, the impending return of warmer weather, and preparations
for a federal election this year probably will give new impetus to
protest activities. Polls show that an increasing number of
Canadians-although still not a majority-support the testing.
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
10 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Top Secret
GUATEMALA: Election Preparations
The government's assurances that it will not tamper with the
constituent assembly election scheduled for 1 July and a decision by
the OAS to send observers have encouraged political organizing.
Leftists are forming an alliance to counter the recent union of tw
Demands from left and center parties for honest elections prompted
Chief of State Mejia to emphasize that the Army will not transport or
count the ballots. The government has announced that more than
1.5 million voters are registered, but US Embassy sources say the
election has produced little interest among the Indians.
Comment: The government apparently is overcoming some of
the skepticism about its commitment to honest elections, and many
parties are belatedly trying to form alliances or register enough
members to participate. Leftist parties are unlikely to be able to
challenge the right wing for control of the assembly. Nonetheless,
their participation will add credibility to the election. The limited
participation of Indians, about half of the country's population,
however, will subject the election to criticism by domestic and foreign
political observers.
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Top Secret
Pravda recently published a decree-the first under General
Secretary Chernenko's leadership-that criticizes the Institute of
Economics in Moscow for superficial analysis of economic problems.
The Institute is instructed to focus its research on current problems
and to prepare recommendations for economic experiments that are
acceptable under the Soviet system.
Comment: The decree almost certainly is intended as a general
criticism of Soviet economists for not producing politically,
ideologically, and bureaucratically satisfactory proposals. At the
plenum of the Central Committee last June, Chernenko criticized
economists for dragging their feet in preparing realistic solutions.
Publication of the decree underscores the leadership's intention to
redirect economic research toward analyses that are politically more
practical and to introduce and evaluate economic experiments before
producing the draft plan for 1986-90.
COSTA RICA: Foreign Exchange Crisis
The imminent exhaustion of foreign exchange reserves has
prompted Costa Rica to suspend payments on debt owed to foreign
governments and to request a meeting of the Paris Club to
reschedule about $100 million in bilateral debt payments falling due
this year. San Jose is trying to secure some $50 million in emergency
financing from foreign governments and commercial banks until the
IMF and US begin disbursing aid in a few months. Commercial
bankers reportedly are reluctant to extend emergency financing
because they believe it will merely defer the financial crisis until
midyear.
Comment: San Jose's failure to devalue its currency as much as
the IMF had recommended last year is largely responsible for the
crisis. A devaluation now probably would not cut imports much until
May or June. If Costa Rica does not secure emergency financing, it
also may fall behind on its commercial debt service.
Top Secret
12 6 March 1984
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Top Secret
EASTERN EUROPE: Drought Hits Winter Grain Crops
The continuing drought in several East European states has
worsened prospects for winter grain production, according to reports
from US Embassies. Winter grains normally account for almost half of
total grain production in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and
Bulgaria.
Comment) (winter grains
entered dormancy ast fall in poor condition, and the region will need
abundant precipitation over the coming weeks to avert serious losses.
Production shortfalls would intensify food supply difficulties,
particularly in Romania. Decisions by some regimes to limit borrowing
because of financial problems probably will limit imports. Efforts to
improve trade balances in Hungary and Bulgaria would be hindered
by a reduction in the amount of grain available for export.
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
13 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
Top Secret
Speech Schedule Reflects Leadership Ranking
(In descending order)
2 March Chernenko Topmost slot, as expected.
29 February Gorbachev Senior Secretary under Chernenko.
28 February Ustinov Defense Minister now outranks other Polit-
buro members.
27 February Gromyko
25 February Grishin Moscow party chief now precedes other
regional chiefs.
25 February Romanov Secretary ... schedule shows he is not even
close second in rank to Gorbachev.
24 February Shcherbitskiy Ukrainian party chief ... preceded Grishin in
1979.
24 February Solomentsev Heads party discipline unit ... high standing
for new full member of Politburo.
24 February Ponomarev Secretary ... senior among candidate mem-
bers of Politburo.
23 February Kunayev Kazakh party chief ... under Brezhnev, out-
ranked other regional party chiefs.
23 February Aliyev, Vorotnikov Aliyev, First Deputy Premier, and Vorotnikov,
RSFSR Premier, in proper rank as new full
Politburo members.
9-21 February Other candidate mem- Spoke in roughly appropriate order of
bers of Politburo and seniority.
secretaries
Top Secret 25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
Special Analysis
USSR: Views of the Leadership
Recent ceremonial speeches by Soviet leaders in their respective
election districts suggest that the Politburo has decided to underscore
policy continuity while making an effort to build up General Secretary
Chernenko's image. The speeches, however, contain signs of differing
views. For example, variations in the remarks on foreign policy
suggest that the Politburo is not entirely agreed on whether to resume
high-level negotiations with the US. Chernenko and party secretary
Gorbachev were the most positive on this point.
Chernenko, who spoke last, suggested that a drastic
improvement in relations with the US might result if Washington took
the initiative on any of several less contentious arms control issues,
particularly chemical warfare. He also reformulated Moscow's
conditions for resuming INF talks, appearing to disassociate himself
somewhat from the demand that US missiles first be removed.
A TASS commentary over the weekend picked up on this point.
It said removal of US missiles is necessary for INF talks "to be
effective," implying withdrawal is not a precondition for resumption.
Gorbachev, now the senior party secretary under Chernenko,
affirmed the USSR's readiness to take advantage of "any real chance
for honest talks."
Foreign Minister Gromyko and Defense Minister Ustinov
appeared more skeptical. Gromyko expressed doubt about the value
of negotiating with the US now and challenged the sincerity of recent
US statements in favor of improving relations.
Gromyko suggested that such statements had more to do with US
election year politics. Ustinov said US assertions of its readiness to
talk while continuing with missile deployments are a "deception."
The speeches indicate that, while Chernenko is inclined toward
improving the dialogue, he will have to proceed cautiously to avoid
opposition from his colleagues. This probably was one reason for his
suggestion in his speech that it would be better to seek agreement on
less contentious issues, rather than to grapple with the principal
questions.
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
Completing Priorities
All speakers emphasized the need to improve the lot of the
consumer, but there were hints that some Politburo members were
uneasy about Chernenko's predisposition to favor consumers. He is
the only Politburo member known to have stressed publicly the
desirability of using the resources saved by arms control agreements
for the consumer sector. The current concerns were especially
evident in passages where consumer benefits are mentioned along
with the need to maintain defensive power.
Politburo members Romanov, Gromyko, and Ustinov stressed the
standard national goals of developing economic and defensive
strength first and consumer welfare second. Soviet media accounts of
a speech by Chernenko to the Politburo on 23 February indicate that
he gave consumer welfare first priority.
In his election speech last Friday, however, Chernenko merely
noted that the international situation had compelled the USSR to
divert resources into defense. He said that this had not been done at
the expense of social programs.
Chernenko's Relations With His Colleagues
Chernenko touched on all current foreign and domestic policy
issues in his speech without explicitly challenging any of his
colleagues' concern. He said the progress made under Andropov will
be safeguarded now through "collectively developed guidelines." His
endorsement of the discipline and anticorruption issues, as well as the
need for change in economic management, should allay the
suspicions of some of his colleagues that he might backtrack on
Andropov's programs.
Most of Chernenko's colleagues apparently have decided to build
his image as a capable leader in their published speeches, although
with differing degrees of support. For example, Gorbachev spoke at
greath length, but focused on Chernenko's "theoretical" contribution
and said nothing about his leadership qualities.
Gorbachev was much more generous in his praise of Andropov's
"precise understanding of urgent problems" and "sensitivity to the
demands of the time." Gromyko was particularly cool, and RSFSR
Premier Vorotnikov was notably perfunctory in his praise of
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
Ustinov praised Chernenko more than adequately but stopped far
short of Romanov and Moscow party chief Grishin, who were the most
effusive. Soviet media indicate that the election meetings to which
they spoke adopted resolutions that described the Politburo as
"headed by" Chernenko-an honorific formulation that had been
used sparingly under Brezhnev and Andropov. The meeting that
Premier Tikhonov addressed adopted the same resolutions.
Judging from the order in which the leaders spoke, the Politburo
has sorted itself out into a hierarchy of status. The content of the
speeches suggests that this is not an ordering by rank of Chernenko's
strongest boosters but that it reflects power and protocol
relationships worked out by the new leadership.
Top Secret
16 6 March 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0
Top Secret
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100030018-0