INLAND WATER TRANSPORT IN COMMUNIST CHINA 1950-58

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
37
Document Creation Date: 
December 27, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 26, 2013
Sequence Number: 
2
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
October 1, 1959
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0.pdf3.21 MB
Body: 
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT N? 1 INLAND WATER TRANSPORT IN COMMUNIST CHINA 1950-58 CIA/RR 59-40 October 1959 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 WARNING This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs. '793 and '794, the trans- mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT INLAND WATER TRANSPORT IN COMMUNIST CHINA 1950-58 CIA/RR 59-1413 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T FOREWORD The purpose of this report is to present (1) an analysis of inland water transport in Communist China and (2) estimates of the size, character, efficiency, and employment of inland water transport in China, with special reference to its ability to serve the transportation requirements of the Chinese Communist economy. - 111 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 50X1 50X1 50X1 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S7E-C-R-E-T CONTENTS Summary and Conclusions Page 1 I. Introduction 2 II. Inland Waterway System 3 A. General Pattern 3 1. Yangtze River System 5 2. Pearl River System 5 3. Amur River System 5 4-. Some Lesser Systems 6 5. Grand Canal 6 B. Major Ports 7 III. Organization 7 A. Yangtze Navigation Bureau (YNB) 7 B. Provincial Navigation Bureaus 8 IV. Inland Water Fleet 8 A. Modern 8 B. Primitive 9 V. Performance and Efficiency of Operations 10 A. Volume of Cargo Hauled 10 B. Composition of Cargo 15 1. Agricultural Products 17 2. Mineral Construction Materials 17 3. Coal 17 , I4. Ferrous Metals 18 5. Timber 18 6. Other Commodities 18 C. Efficiency of Operations 18 VI. Investment 22 VII. Plans and Prospects 24. - v - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 . Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E7C-R-E-T Appendixes Page Appendix A. Methodology 25 Tables 1. Total Length of Navigable Inland Waterways in Communist China, 1950-58 2. Estimated Horsepower of the Tugboat Fleet on Inland Waterways in Communist China, 1952-57 9 3. Index of the Volume of Total Modern Transport and Modern Inland Water Transport in Communist China, 1952-58 10 4. Performance of Total Modern Transport and Modern Inland Water Transport in Communist China, 1950-58 12 5. Tons Originated by Modern Inland Water Transport on the Yangtze River in Communist China, 1952-58 13 6. Performance of Inland Water Transport in Communist China, 1957 13 7. Tons Originated by Modern Inland Water Transport and by Primitive Inland Water Transport in Communist China, 1954 and 1957 14 8. Composition of Cargo Carried by Total Inland Water Transport in Communist China, 1956 15 9. Estimated Composition of Cargo Carried by Modern Inland Water Transport in Communist China, 1956 and 1958 . . . 16 10. Comparative Costs of Shipping by Rail Transport and by Inland Water Transport from Szechwan to Shanghai in Communist China, 1957 19 - vi - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-CR-E-T 11. Comparative Unit Costs of Shipping by Rail Transport and by Inland Water Transport on the Yangtze River in Communist China, 1956 Page 20 12. Index of Planned Investment in Capital Construction for Inland Water Transport in Communist China, 1953-58 23 Map Communist China: Major Inland Waterways Inside Back Cover S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T INLAND WATER TRANSPORT IN COMMUNIST CHINA* 1950-58 , Summary and Conclusions Communist China has an extensive inland waterway system that is capable of contributing much to the economy of the country. More than 114,000 kilometers (km) of waterways are navigable by junks, and about 40,000 km also are navigable by modern powered vessels. In 1955, 30,000 km of steamer routes and nearly twice this length of junk routes were in operation. Three rivers -- the Yangtze, the Sungari, and the Pearl -- carry nearly 60 percent of all modern inland water traffic.** The capacity of the inland water fleet of Communist China is esti- mated to be between 4 million and 5 million gross register tons (GRT),*** but only about 10 percent of the capacity of the fleet is composed of modern powered vessels, the rest being composed of junks and other small craft. Although still of major importance, the primi- tive sector of the fleet is declining in relative performance. Primi- tive craft carried 84.6 percent of the volume transported in 1954, but their share had declined to about 70 percent in 1958, and this trend is expected to continue. If 1952 is taken as the base year, the index of tons originated**** in Communist China in 1957 was 427 for inland water transport compared with 255 for all types of transport. Tons originated by modern trans- port on inland waterways increased from 4.5 million tons in 1950 to 56.7 million tons in 1958. For the same period, performance increased from 1.68 billion ton-kilometers (tkm) to 21.3 billion tkm. * The estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best judgment of this Office as of 15 August 1959. ** The terms modern and primitive (or native) are adopted for the purpose of this report to overcome the inconsistency of Chinese Com- munist terminology. The primitive fleet consists of junks and other wooden sailing vessels. It is not clear whether the Chinese regard motorized junks as belonging to the modern or the primitive fleet. *** Gross register tonnage is a measure of the cubic capacity of the cargo space of a vessel expressed in tons at the rate of 1 long ton per 100 cubic feet. xxx* Unless otherwise indicated, tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this report. S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T In spite of these achievements, inland water transport in Communist China has been a relatively inefficient operation. The average cost of transportation on the Yangtze River exceeds the average cost of rail transport, and because the Yangtze has many advantages lacking on other inland water routes, this condition may be presumed to be general. The high costs of operation are due to inefficient utili- zation of high-cost fuels and personnel and lack of adequate planning and coordination. The Chinese may be expected to be reasonably suc- cessful in their attempts to reduce the costs of operation. Investment in water transport apparently has not lagged behind that in other sectors of the Chinese Communist economy. The largest part of investment thus far has been in construction of vessels. In the last 2 years, however, emphasis has shifted more to development and mechanization of ports. Additional investment in water conserv- ancy also may be expected to benefit navigation. If performance of inland water transport is to continue at the present level or at an even higher level, however, the Chinese Communists must maintain a balanced program of investment at a corresponding level. Although the total requirements of the Chinese Communists for transportation in 1959 are expected to be nearly double those in 1958, performance by all types of transport will not be sufficient to meet this demand. The inland waterway system has been almost constantly pressed to meet the demands placed on it, and in 1956 and again in 1958 inefficient operations and poor harbor facilities caused notable congestion on the waterways. Thus considerable doubt exists as to the ability of inland water transport to contribute its share to require- ments for transportation in 1959. I. Introduction Inland water transport traditionally has held a position of pre- eminence in Chinese transportation. Only in recent times has rail transport replaced water transport as the principal hauler of goods, and only since the Communist regime have highways originated more ton- nage than inland waterways. In terms of ton-kilometers, inland water transport still ranks second to rail transport, followed by coastal shipping and highway transport. The inland. waterway system which the Chinese Communists acquired in 1949 was in a bad state of disrepair. The ravages of war and the - 2 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T inefficient and corrupt civil administration had reduced the system to a fraction of its former capacity. Much of the inland water fleet had been either sunk or removed from the country. Navigation lights and markers were nonexistent, channels and harbors were filled with silt, and most port facilities were inadequate. The Chinese Communists decided to concentrate on railroad con- struction-in the First Five Year Plan (1953-57), but inland water- ways were not ignored. Rivers were dredged, vessels were salvaged, new vessels were constructed, and harbors were restored to usefulness. Extensive and elaborate schemes for water conservancy were undertaken, with the result that currents and depths of water began to be con- trolled and rivers remained in their channels. In view of the Chinese efforts and the small base from which they started, the increase in the volume of inland water transport in 1958 to more than six times the figure for 1952 is not surprising. Although the performance of inland water transport in Communist China has almost regained the level it had reached before the Chinese civil war, the Chinese Communists still have a number of problems to solve. The inland waterway system has been pressed almost constantly to meet the demands placed on it and in 1956 and 1958 proved unable to meet the requirements of the economy. The evidence indicates that the "greater leap forward" anticipated in 1959 will require considerably more of inland water transport than the system will be able to produce. II. Inland Waterway System* A. General Pattern The inland waterways of Communist China have a combined length of more than 320,000 km, of which at least 114,000 km were navigable in 1958.** 2/ More than one-third of the total navigable length can be * See the map, inside back cover. ** The Chinese Communists have not defined the term navigable. Judging from the type of craft used and the claims of navigability for various rivers and provinces, this figure (114,000) probably includes channels with a depth of 1 meter (m) or more. The figures in Table 1, column 2 (p. 4, below), probably include all channels of 1.5 m or more. A recent announcement claimed that 150,000 km of waterways were navigable at the end of 1958 and indicated that this amount was an increase of 10,000 km above the navigable length in 1957. This statement is out of line with all if true, probably includes channels of less having only seasonal navigability. Another previous announcements and, than 1 m in depth and those possibility is that the figure is only a revision of previous announce- ments and is based on new information resulting from hydrographic sur- veys. Until the matter is clarified by additional information, however, the figure of 150,000 km must be regarded with considerable skepticism. - 3 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 50X1 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T used by steamers or other powered vessels. a total of about 30,000 km of waterways was served by inland steamers on regular routes in 1955, whereas routes served by junks were double this length. ?V This figure compares with a total of 83,800 km of waterways served by steamers in the USSR. With the exception of a few rivers in the northern and western regions, the rivers of Communist China do not freeze and are navigable throughout the year. There is considerable variation in water level, however, ranging from 12 to 38 feet in some areas, a factor which has a marked influence on navigation. The inland waterway system of Communist China consists of three major river systems and numerous additional rivers and canals. The water routes are generally oriented in an east-west direction and are important lines of communication between coastal and interior areas. Table 1 indicates the growth of the inland waterway system in Communist China since 1950. Table 1 Total Length of Navigable Inland Waterways in Communist China 2/ 1950-58 Kilometers Year Total Length of Navigable Inland Waterways Length of Inland Waterways Navigable by Powered Vessels 1950 1951 73,100 N.A. 30,000 N.A. 1952 95,025 30,508 1953 95,025 30,508 1954 95,025 30,508 1955 99,938 31,685 1956 103,619 38,304 1957 104,700 39,500 1958 114,700 y 40,500 2/ a. !-2/ b. Based on an announced increase of 10,000 km in 1958. 2/ c. Estimated. - 4 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 -2,IA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T 1. Yangtze River System The Yangtze River and its tributaries in Communist China comprise more than 57,000 km of inland water routes important both for local traffic and for connecting the Szechwan Basin with the in- dustrial regions and ports along the coast. Some of the more important of the tributaries are the Min, the Han, the Chia-ling, and the Yuan Rivers. More than 16,000 km of the Yangtze River System are navigable by modern powered vessels, and, in 1957, 13.4 million tons of cargo moved on the Yangtze by means of such vessels. This amount represents 33 percent of the total volume of cargo moved by modern powered vessels in Communist China in 1957. The main products in the traffic on the Yangtze River System are rice, other grains, and livestock moving down- stream and ores, refined petroleum, and manufactured goods moving up- stream. Coal and building materials move in both directions. 2. Pearl River System The Hsi, Tung, Pei, and Kuei Rivers all enter the Smith China Sea by way of the Pearl (Chu) River estuary and together with their tributaries are commonly referred to as the Pearl River System. This system ranks second to the Yangtze River System in terms of navi- gable distance and contains more than 10,000 km of navigable Waterways, 4,500 km of which are navigable by modern powered vessels. In 1953 the Pearl River System carried about 3.7 million tons, or 24 percent of the cargo moved on inland waterways by modern vessels. .Y The vast majority of cargoes moving downstream on the Pearl include wood products, timber, wood oil, foodstuffs, livestock, and manganese. The cargoes moving upstream are mainly finished goods, machine parts, processed foods, chemicals, and fertilizers. Coal is shipped in both directions, but petroleum is shipped upriver, with the empty drums being returned to Canton. 3. Amur River System The Amur River System ranks third after the Yangtze and Pearl River Systems in terms of importance and volume of cargo moved in Communist China. The Amur System includes the Argun, Ussuri, and Sungari Rivers, which are tributary to the Amur, and the Nonni River, which is tributary to the Sungari, as well as numerous rivers of lesser significance. Although the navigation season lasts only about 6 months because of freezing, this system is of special importance because of the route it provides between the Manchurian plain and the USSR. On the Amur River, traffic moves in Soviet vessels, and there is little or no Chinese transport. The Sungari and its tributaries carried about 1.5 million tons, or 5.7 percent of the traffic moved on inland water- ways by modern vessels in 1955. Harbin and Chia-mu-ssu are rail -5- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T transshipment centers, and most commodities move in the direction of one of these ports. The major commodities moving are timber and agricultural products, including grain, hemp, soybeans, and others. Construction materials and coal are also important commodities. 4. Some Lesser Systems The Yellow River ranks second to the Yangtze River among the rivers of Communist China in terns of total length. In terms of navigable distance, however, it ranks about fifth, after the Huai River, because of siltation and variations in water level. The Yellow River is important only for local transport because its navigable reaches are intermittent and it has no convenient outlet to the sea. According to announced plans, the water conservancy program projected for the Yellow River will render it navigable from its mouth to the San-men Dam, an increase of about 1,000 km, thus providing an all- water route from Peking to the interior. The Huai River System ranks immediately after the Amur River System in terms of navigable distance. The extensive program for flood control and water conservancy in the Huai Basin will render more than 3,900 km of the river and its tributaries navigable to modern powered vessels by 1962 and will provide an important water route linking Shanghai and the lower Yangtze River ports with the rich agricultural region of the north China plain. Many other rivers are of importance in Communist China, particularly in local transport. Among these are the Min (Fukien) and Liao Rivers, which provide access from the coast to the interior. The Hai River, although short, provides access by water to the sea for the industrial region around Peking. The Tumen and Yalu Rivers on the border of Korea are carriers of local trade and some inter- national trade. The Ili and Chernyy Irtysh Rivers provide a similar connection between the USSR and Sinkiang Province. 5. Grand Canal The Grand Canal, more than 1,700 km in length, runs from Tientsin to Hangchow in Communist China. Although it is presently of little use for navigation, reconstruction of the canal is under- way. Present plans call for straightening the canal and shortening its length to 1,500 km as well as for dredging to accommodate vessels' of more than 2,000 GRT by the end of the Second Five Year Plan (1958-62). When completed, the canal will provide the only north- south inland waterway of any significance. It will join the Huai, Yangtze, and other rivers into an interconnecting network and will provide water transport among virtually all the important - 6 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T industrial and agricultural regions of North and Central China. Three major ports are to be constructed for handling coal, one of which will have a capacity of 20 million tons annually. // B. Major Ports With the exception of the Yangtze, most rivers of Communist China have fewer than two ports which handle sufficient goods to be designated major ports. By far the most important of the Yangtze ports and hence the most important inland water port in China is Shanghai, which is also the largest ocean port in the country. Hahkow, Chungking, and Nanking are also major ports on the Yangtze and rank high among the inland water ports. On the Pearl River, Canton is of major importance, whereas Harbin and Chia-mu-ssu dominate transport on the Sungari River. The volume of cargo handled by Yangtze ports in 1958 ranged from more than 4 million tons handled by Chungking to 32 million tons handled by Shanghai. f/ Other ports are minor when compared with these, although some, such as Ma-an-shan and Yu-ch'i- k'ou, are of considerable economic significance. III. Organization Central control over inland water transport in Communist China rests in the Sea and River General Navigation Bureau in Peking, which is subordinate to the Ministry of Communications. Operational control over planning and policies for inland water transport is exercised by regional or provincial bureaus, which are described below. A. Yangtze Navigation Bureau (YNB) The Yangtze Navigation Bureau (YNB) of Communist China has jurisdiction over the Yangtze River and its major tributaries. Before 1958, virtually all administrative and operational policies in this area were decided by the YNB, which had final and exclusive juris- diction. The YNB was organized into three major branches, each having control over a different section of the river, and into offices which performed staff functions (finance, planning, engineering, and the like). The three branches were at Shanghai, Chungking, and Hankow. Each branch had five or more subordinate offices located in various inland water ports under its jurisdiction. Control over local intra- provincial shipping was the responsibility of the several provinces but was coordinated with the various branch offices concerned. In 1958, following the general policy of decentralization. of control, much of the organization described in the preceding paragraph was transferred to the control of the provinces. Many of the harbor offices and a large number of vessels formerly controlled by the YNB - 7 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T were given to the provinces, as were some specialized functions such as waterWay engineering. The full implications of this change have not yet become apparent. The YNB still exercises a great deal of control over all aspects of inland water transport and still coordi- nates all long-distance hauling, plans, and the like. The provinces, however, have some real responsibilities for administration, invest- ment, and preliminary planning. The exact division of responsibilities and the devices for coordination apparently are not yet firmly estab- lished. B. Provincial Navigation Bureaus Control over shipping on the Pearl and Sungari Rivers in Communist China is exercised by the provincial navigation bureau con- cerned. Before 1957 the Pearl River Navigation Bureau had control over .the Pearl River similar to that of the YNB over the Yangtze River. In March 1957 the Pearl River Navigation Bureau was abolished, and control over the Pearl was given to the KWangtung and Kwangsi Provincial Navi- gation Bureaus. A similar move had already occurred in the northeast, where the Northeast Inland Water Navigation Bureau, which controlled traffic on the Amur and Sungari Rivers, had been abolished in 1955 in favor of the Heilungkiang Shipping Bureau, a provincial organization. Virtually all of the other rivers are under the control of the provinces through which they flow. IV. Inland Water Fleet The inland water fleet of Communist China consists of a multitude of craft with a great variety of types and sizes, ranging from new passenger-cargo vessels of 4,000 GRT to small sampans capable of carry- ing less than 1 ton. A statement of the total number and capacity of vessels by type is not possible from the evidence available, but some general observations can be made. A. Modern The modern inland water self-propelled fleet of Communist China is estimated to have totaled about 30 vessels and 80,000 GRT at the end of 1956, 2/ or approximately 110,000 deadweight tons (DWT).* The exact additions to the fleet since 1956 are unknown, but they have been sub- stantial. The announced plans for construction of vessels in 1958 called for 381 vessels of both maritime and inland types totaling 96,000 DWT. 12/ Subsequent announcements indicate that more than * Deadweight tonnage is a measure of the carrying capacity of a ves- sel in long tons -- that is, the difference between the vessel's dis- placement light and its displacement loaded. - 8 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T 100,000 DWT were constructed in 1958. A considerable part of this construction consisted of barges and tugboats for inland water use. Plans call for construction of refrigerated, petroleum, and ore barges, and all three types of vessels are believed to be under con- struction. The evidence indicates continued growth and modernization of the inland water fleet, with greater emphasis on barge tows and decreasing use of self-propelled vessels. By 1957 the horsepower of the tugboat fleet had increased to more than six times the power available in 1952, as shown in Table 2. Table 2 Estimated Horsepower of the Tugboat Fleet on Inland Waterways in Communist China 2/ 1952-57 Index of Percentage Increase Horsepower Above ' Year (1952 = 100) Preceding Year Thousand Horsepower 1952 100 41.1 1953 141 41.0 58.0 1954 215 52.5 88.4 1955 358 66.5 147.2 1956 476 33.0 195.8 1957 640 34.5 263.4 a. The capacity of the barge fleet on the Yangtze River was estimated to be nearly 200,000 GRT in 1958 (about 282,000 EMT), 1V and probably another 200,000 GRT of barges operate on the Pearl and Sungari Rivers. If modern vessels of all types and sizes are included, the total tonnage of the modern inland water fleet of Communist China is probably between 400,000 and 500,000 GRT and may be even larger. B. Primitive Estimates of the primitive inland water fleet of Communist China are very tenuous. The large number of junks in existence, howevei', - 9 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 50X1 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T makes them significant enough to warrant an appraisal of their ca- pacity. It seems likely that there are from 300,000 to 400,000 junkb with a capacity of 2 million to 4 million DWT. 14/ Junks are esti- mated to carry between 60 and 80 percent of the total volume of goods moved on the inland waterways. 12/ V. Performance and Efficiency of Operations A. Volume of Cargo Hauled Although the performance of inland water transport in Com- munist China has not regained the position of preeminence which it occupied in the pre-Communist period, it has experienced a steady and pronounced growth. If 1952 is taken as the base year, tons originated by modern transport on the inland waterways of China in- creased at a faster rate than total tons originated by all forms of modern transport in the country, as indicated in Table 3. During Table 3 Index of the Volume of Total Modern Transport and Modern Inland Water Transport in Communist China 1952-58 1952=100' Year Total Modern Transport Modern Inland Water Transport 1952 100 100 1953 126 163 1954 159 218 1955 167 279 1956 221 376 1957 255 427 1958 437 603 a. Compiled fran data in Table 4, p. 12, below. 1952-57 the performance of modern inland water transport increased at a faster rate than that of railroads or coastal shippinE but at a slightly slower rate than that of highways. The volume of tons originated which were carried by modern transport on inland waterways in Communist China increased from - 10 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T 4.5 million tons in 1950 to about 56.7 million tons in 1958. 1.6_/ For the same period, performance in ton-kilometers increased from 1.68 billion tkm to about 21.3 billion tkm. 1// The average length of haul by modern transport on the waterways of China was 376 km in 1958. These relationships are shown in Table 4.* Although the volume of tons originated on inland waterways in Communist China may be expected to continue to increase in absolute terms, it is unlikely that inland water transport will increase significantly in comparison with other forms of transport. Continued growth will probably result in a slightly lower share of the total transport load for inland waterways because of the tremendous room for expansion of railroad and highway nets and facilities. Further develop- ment will result in more specialization in bulk movement by inland water transport, whereas general cargo with a higher value will move by land transport.. About 60 percent of total inland water traffic in Communist China occurs on three rivers, the Yangtze, the Sungari, and the Pearl. The Yangtze alone normally carries about one-third of all modern inland water tonnage, as shown in Table 5.** Comparable data for the Pearl and Sungari Rivers are not available. In 1953 the Pearl carried 3.7 million tons originatedl or 24 percent of the total tons originated by modern inland water transport. The Sungari carried 1.5 million tons in 1955, or 5.7 percent of the total. The remaining 30 to 40 percent of tons originated by modern inland water transport move on numerous lesser rivers such as the Huai, the Min, and the Liao. Data for these rivers are virtually nonexistent. Estimates of the total performance of inland water transport are somewhat more tenuous than those for modern inland water transport alone, because data for primitive transport are much less comprehensive and precise. The Chinese Communists announced a combined performance by coastal shipping and inland water transport of 210 million tons origi- nated for 1958, an increase of 37 percent above performance in 1957. lf/ It seems likely that in 1958 primitive transport carried about 70 per- cent of all tons originated on the inland waterways of Communist China. Because the figure for modern inland water transport in 1958 is esti- mated to have been 56.7 million tons originated, primitive inland water transport is estimated to have moved about 133 million tons origi- nated. A total of 190 million tons originated moved on the inland waterways of China in 1958 by modern vessels, tugboats and barges, junks, and possibly sampans and rafts as well. This figure is reasonable in view of the announced performance for 1957 as indicated in Table 6.*** * Table 4 follows on p. 12. ** Table 5 follows on p. 13. XX Table 6 follows on p. 13. S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 : CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Table 4 Performance of Total Modern Transport and Modern Inland Water in Communist China 2/ 1950-58 Transport Modern Inland Water Transport Year Total Modern Transport Tons Originated Ton-Kilometers Average Length of Haul (Kilometers) Tons Originated (Million Metric Tons) Ton-Kilometers (Billion Metric Tons) Million Metric Tons Percent of Total Modern Transport Billion Ton- Kilometers Percent Of Total Modern Transport 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 112.3 10/ 133.6/ 168.0-2/ 212.012/ 266.5 b/ 1 280.2 12/ 278.2 1/ 371.3 1/ 428.6 12/ 733.8/ 42.2 2/ 57.7 2/ 69.5 2/ 89.6 2/ 111.0 Cl 119.4 2/ 118.1 El 145.4 i/ 164.2 5./ 230.0 g/ 4.5o 1/ 6.96 21/ 9.41 d 15.3 d 20.5 d/ 26.3 di 26.1 1/ 35.41/ 40.21/ 56.71/ 4.o 5.2 5.6 7.2 7.7 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.4 7.7 1.68 2/ 2.66 2/ 3.64 2/ 5.63 2/ 7.89 e/ 10.4 2/ 10.2 E/ l2.9/ 15.1 g/ 21.3 Ei 4.o 4.6 5.2 6.3 7.1 8.7 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.3 373 382 387 368 385 395 391 364 376 376 b. Including both physical tons and tariff tons. Tariff tons is a term used in Chinese Communist account- ing. The exact meaning of the term is unknown, but there is very little difference between a tariff ton and a physical (metric) ton. c. Including both physical ton-kilometers and tariff ton-kilometers. See footnote b, above. d. Tariff tons. See footnote b, above. e. Tariff ton-kilometers. See footnote b, above. f. Physical tons. g. Physical ton-kilometers. -12- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 5 Tons Originated by Modern Inland Water Transport on the Yangtze River in Communist China W 1952-58 Year Tons Originated (Million Metric Tons) Percent of Total Modern Inland Water Transport 1952 3.9 41 1953 5.3 35 1954 7.1 35 1955 8.5 33 1956 10.3 29 1957 13.4 33 1958 18.9 33 Table 6 Performance of Inland Water Transport in Communist China 2/ 1957 Modern Inland Primitive Inland Water Transport Water Transport Total Per- formance Per- formance Percent of Total Per- formance Percent of Total Million tons originated 138.6 40.2 29.0 98.4 71.0 Billion ton- kilometers 21.8 15.1 69.3 6.7 30.7 Average length of haul (kilometers) 157.3 375.6 68.1 a. LO/ -13 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T The requirements for primitive inland water transport in Communist China are local in nature, the average length of haul for such trans- port being only 68.1 km compared with 375.6 km for modern transport. Although 71 percent of the total tons originated in China are carried by primitive transport, only 31 percent of the ton-kilometers are so carried. Modern inland water transport, therefore, is used primarily for long-distance hauling, and primitive transport is used for local transportation. Although the role of the junk is still important, its share of transport performance is declining. Table 7 indicates Table 7 Tons Originated by Modern Inlnnd Water Transport and by Primitive Inland Water Transport in Communist China 2/ 1954 and 1957 Total Tons Originated (Million Year Metric Tons) Modern Tons Originated (Million Metric Tons) Primitive Tons Originated Percent (Million of Total Metric Tons) Percent of Total 1954 133.5 20.5 15.4 113.0 84.6 1957 138.6 40.2 29.0 98.4 71.0 that the share of the primitive sector in the total volume of inland water transport declined from 85 percent in 1954 to 71 percent in 1957, and the volume of junk traffic decreased in absolute terms by 14.6 million tons originated. In 1958 the percentage of the total in- land water traffic handled by junks remained near the 1957 level, - but the absolute figure for tons originated by the primitive sector reached an all-time high of 133 million tons originated as a result of the "leap forward" program. As the modern fleet is expanded, the *junk eventually will be confined to the smaller waterways and the simplest tasks. -14- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T B. Composition of Cargo As would be expected, bulk cargoes not requiring fast transit make up the greater part of inland water traffic in Communist China. The five major commodities moved on the waterways of China, in terms of volume, are agricultural products, mineral construction materials, coal, ferrous metals, and timber. The most Important commodities are agricultural products and mineral construction materials, which to- gether comprise from 45 to 50 percent of the total volume of goods moved by inland water transport (see Tables 8 and 9*). Table 8 Composition of Cargo Carried by Total Inland Water Transport in Communist China 1956 Cauunodity Tons Originated Ton-Kilometers Million Metric Tons 2/ Percent of Total12/ Billion Metric Tons 4/ Percent of Total 12/ Grain 35.6 26.0 8.1 37.6 Mineral construc- tion materials 33.8 24.7 2.0 9.5 Coal 12.3 9.0 2.1 9.6 Timber 5.3 3.9 1.1 5.0 Salt 5.3 3.9 1.0 4.4 Ores and ferrous metals 2.3 1.7 1.0 4.7 Cotton 1.4 1.0 0.5 2,1 Petroleum 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.8 Other 39.8 29.1 5.4 25.3 Total ?136.7 100.0 21.6 100.0 a. Estimated. b. * Table 9 follows on p. 16. - 15 - S-E-C -R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Table 9 Estimated Composition of Cargo Carried by Modern Inland Water Transport in Communist China 1956. and 1958 Commodity 1956 1958 Tons Originated (Million Metric Tons) Percent of Total Tons Originated '(Million Metric Tons) Percent of Total Agricultural products 10.3 29 17 30 Of which: Grain N.A. N.A. 16.7 29.5 Cotton N.A. N.A. 0.3 0.5 Coal 7.1 20 11 19 Mineral construction materials ' 6.3 18 8 14 Ores and ferrous metals 1.8 5 6 11 Of which: Steel N.A. N.A. 1.5 3 Timber _0.4- 1 1.7 3 Petroleum products 1 0.4 3 ' 3 5 Other 8.6 24 10 18 Total 35.4 100 56.7 100 - 16 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T 1. Agricultural Products Agricultural products rank high in the inland water trans- port of Communist China. The largest single movement consists of grain and other products being moved from the Szechwan Basin by way of the Yangtze River to the consumer regions along the coast. Rank- ing second in importance to the movement of Szechwan grain is the general movement of agricultural goods from production areas to con- suming areas -- for example, the movement of grain and other food- stuffs from the rural areas of KWantung down the Hsi River to Canton. In 1956, grain and cotton accounted for 27.0 petcent of the total tons originated by inland water transport and for 39.7 percent of the ton-kilometers. .2...V In 1958, agricultural products may have accounted for as much as 30 percent of tons originated by modern inland water transport. 2. Mineral Construction Materials Mineral construction materials, consisting largely of sand, stone, brick, cement, and dirt, consistently rank first or second in any ranking by volume of goods moved by inland water trans- port in Communist China. Many of the items in this category are produced or consumed on or very near the rivers -- sand, for example, is dredged from a river and consumed by construction of dams or irrigation works on the river or nearby. The movement therefore is largely local and utilizes to a large extent the capacities of primitive vessels. Although mineral construction materials comprised 24.7 percent of the volume of total inland water transport in 1956, they accounted for only 9.5 percent of the ton-kilometer perform- ance. LV In 1958, mineral construction materials again accounted for 25 percent of the volume of total inland water transport but probably for only about 14 percent of the volume of the modern sector. 3. Coal Coal is a commodity which traditionally is suited to transportation by water. Many of the major coal-producing areas in Communist China are located on navigable waterways, and in some in- stances rail lines have been constructed to move coal to a water route. A number of ports have been constructed specifically for handling coal (for example, Yu-ch'i-k'ou on the Yangtze River), and several ports are planned for construction on the Grand Canal. In 1956, coal accounted for 9.0 percent of the tons originated by total inland water transport and for 9.6 percent of the ton-kilometer performance. LV Coal probably accounted for about 19 percent of the tons originated by modern inland water transport in 1958. -17- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T 4. -Ferrous Metals Ferrous metals, both raw materials and semifinished goods, are moved to a large extent by inland water transport in Communist China. Large iron and steel centers are located along the Yangtze River at Chungking, Wu-han, Ma-an-shan, and Shanghai, and the bunk of the ferrous materials moved by inland water transport probably is consumed by these centers. Ores and ferrous metals accounted for 2.3 million tons originated, or 1.7 percent of the total tons origi- nated by inland water transport in 1956, but as much as 6 million tons originated, or about 11 percent of the tons originated by modern inland water transport in 1958. 5. Timber Timber is an important commodity in the traffic on most of the inland waterways of Communist China. The most common form of movement is in rafts of raw logs which are towed or allowed to drift downstream from logging areas to sawmills and the consuming regions. this movement is important on the Amur, Sungari, Ussuri, and Yangtze Rivers and their tributaries as well as on numerous lesser rivers. Timber accounted for about 3 percent of tons originated by modern transport on the inland waterways of China in 1958. 6. Other Commodities Among other commodities which are of importance in Communist China are salt, refined petroleum products, fertilizer, and various handicraft products. These commodities, although important enough to list, generally are less significant in terms of shipping capacity used than the commodities listed in 1 through 5, above. Salt and petroleum, however, are becoming increasingly important and, as production expands, may become major commodities in inland water transport (see Table 9*). C. Efficiency of Operations The chief advantage of water transport is the economy of moving bulk goods for relatively long distances. In this respect the Yangtze River is ideally situated, with large amounts of bulk cargoes (grain, ores, and the like) originating in its basin and with the longest average length of haul of any river in Communist China. In spite of these advantages, the average cost of transportation along the Yangtze, as is indicated in Table 10,** is higher than that of rail transport in the Yangtze area. 2g Inland water transport has been developed to a * P. 16, above. ** Table 10 follows on p. 19. ? - 18 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 10 Comparative Costs of Shipping by Rail Transport and by Tnland Water Transport from Szechwan to Shanghai in Communist China 2/ 1957 Direction and Commodity Route Costs (Yuan per Metric Ton) Rail Inland Water Downriver Rice Ch'eng-tu to Shanghai 38.31 59.43 Rice Chungking to Shanghai 46.12 77.46 Upriver Steel Shanghai to Chungking 41.40 61.23 General cargo Shanghai to Chungking 127.18 130.15 General cargo Shanghai to Ch'eng-tu 105.52 171.76 Chemical fertilizer Shanghai to Chungking 48.20 73.98 Chemical fertilizer Shanghai to Chieng-tu 40.04 94.64 much greater extent in the Yangtze area than in any other, and navi- gation is possible on a year-round basis, so it may be assumed that operations in the Yangtze area are more efficient than elsewhere in China. Because the Yangtze is so important in the inland waterway system of China and because data for other river systems are lacking, this section is concerned with the efficiency of operations along the Yangtze. It is believed, however, that the conclusions based on operations on the Yangtze are generally applicable to the entire inland waterway system in China. On the waterways of the USSR the average unit cost of inland water transport in 1956 was 18.2 percent less than the average unit cost of rail transport. In Communist China the average unit cost -19 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T of inland water transport along the Yangtze River in 1957 was expected to be 30.4 percent higher than the average unit cost of rail transport. This situation prevailed in spite of repeated reduction of rates along the river and attempts by the Chinese Communists to reduce operating costs wherever possible. The high costs appear to be due to four major factors -- (1) the high cost and inefficient use of fuel; (2) poor utilization of personnel; (3) underutilization of capacity; and (4) lack of coordination, planning, and control of shipping operations. In Table 11 some comparative data on the components of the costs of rail and inland water shipment are given. Table 11 Comparative Unit Costs of Shipping by Rail Transport and by Inland Water Transport on the Yangtze River in Communist China 2/ 1956 Unit Costs (Yuan per Thousand Combined Ton-Kilometers 12/) Rail Inland Water Wages 2.19 3.11 Fuel and electricity 0.92 2.27 Supplies 0.73 0.7)-i- Repairs 0.64 1.51 Depreciation 2.74 2.20 Other 0.45 1.14 Total 7.67 10.97 a" ..2/ b. Combined ton-kilometers (or total traffic kilometers) equal freight ton-kilometers plus passenger kilometers. Freight ton-kilometers and passenger kilometers are com- bined on an equal basis. The first factor mentioned, the high cost of fuel consumed in the operation of vessels along the Yangtze River, has two causes: the per- formance of about 40 percent of the shipping by vessels which burn diesel fuel (and POL products are expensive in Communist China) LI and the inefficient use of high-cost coal. In 1957, expenditures for fuel amounted to 21.3 percent of the total cost of inland water transport. L/ - 20 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T As increased industrialization in China makes possible lower costs for POL and coal and as new vessels having more modern and efficient power- plants are added to the fleet, this cost factor should be reduced sub- stantially. The inefficient utilization of personnel is another factor in the high costs of shipping in Communist China. In 1957 the YNB had employed about 56,000 persons. 1.V Approximately 20,500 persons were engaged in the operation of vessels, 15,000 were longshoremen, and 20,500 were employed in manpgerial and other activities. Only 63 per- cent of the labor force of the YNB, therefore, actually were engaged in transportation activities. The 20,500 workers actually engaged in the operation of vessels produced a total of 373,000 tkm per worker in 1956. .4V This output indicates a very inefficient allocation of re- sources between managerial and operational personnel. The productivity of operational personnel on the inland waterways in 1956 was 11 percent lower than on the railroads. Lt/ China traditionally has consumed unnecessary labor in inland water transport. Where other countries use barge tows, in which the barges are unmanned and the tugboat crew handles the entire tow, in China each barge has one or more men. This unnecessary waste of manpower involves about 20 percent of the personnel engaged in the operation of vessels. The average wage for inland water workers is about 26 percent higher than that for rail workers, 12/ thus indicating the cost of inefficient use of personnel compared with other forms of transportation. The last two factors mentioned above, the underutilization of capacity and the lack of coordination, obviously contribute to higher costs of inland water transport. In 1957, vessels along the Yangtze River on the average spent nearly 50 percent of their time in port, whereas barges spent nearly 60 percent of their time in port. 1?/ The Chinese Communists estimate that as much as 54 percent of the time in port is unproductive time: that is, waiting for loading and unloading, for tugboats, for cargo, and so on. 32/ Faulty scheduling of cargo, delays in transshipment, and inadequate harbor facilities have resulted in an underutilization of vessel capacity, accompanied by an overtaxing of harbor facilities. The congestion on the waterways in 1956 and 1958 was largely the result of inadequate port facilities and of inefficiency in the operation of the inland waterway system. In spite of the diffi- culties encountered, there was no evidence of an acute shortage of vessels. Such shortage of vessels as existed was due to the fact that large numbers of barges and other vessels were being held in port for periods of more than 2 weeks while waiting for loading and unloading. Lack of coordination of combined rail-water shipments probably contrib- uted as much as any other cause to the troubles encountered in 1958. - 21 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T The Chinese Communist press has exhibited considerable concern over improving the efficiency of shipping operations. Articles having to do with improved techniques of vessel and port operation and cargo handling are frequently found in Chinese technical journals, and con- cern over operationsl policies is apparent even at the ministerial level. Improvements, however, are being made. In the past several years, rates, turnaround time, and costs have been reduced signifi- cantly. It is believed that this trend will continue and that within a reasonable time the Chinese inland waterway system will achieve a greater efficiency than it has at present. VI. Investment Programs for the development of inland water transport in Communist China have shown considerable variation in emphasis, usually in response to pressures of requirements. Details of investment during the Second Five Year Plan have not yet been announced, nor have the plans for 1958 or 1959 been revealed in any detail. Even the Chinese Communist First Five Year Plan (1953-57) lacked quantitative investment statistics. For this reason, the following section on investment deals only with the rate and direction of investment, not with amounts invested in ab- solute terms. Investment in capital construction for transportation other than railroads in 1956 was 690 million yusn.* 2/ This figure includes in- land water transport, ocean shipping, highways, and civil air transport. It is not possible to deduce from this information the exact amount of investment in inland water transport, because separate data for each of the sectors are not available. Other evidence, however, indicates that the rate of investment in inland water transport has been considerable and is increasing. If 1953 is taken as the base year, the index of investment in capital construction in inland water transport stood at 272 in 1958, as indicated in Table 12.** It should be noted that in the first 3 years of the First Five Year Plan period actual investment was from 6 to 13 percent less than the amount programed. 12/ The allocation of investment funds in inland water transport for the period 1950-56 was as follows: shipbuilding, 66.91 percent; harbor development, 11.77 percent; navigation routes, 1.93 percentl' navigation signals, 3.35 percent; dockyard construction, 2.7 percent, and other expenses, including housing, health, and education, 13.34 percent. 112/ * About US $280 million on the basis of the rate of 2.46 yusn to US $1. This rate of exchange is based on the yuan-sterling rate for telegraphic transfers, which is arbitrarily established and bears no relationship to domestic price levels. ** Table 12 follows on p. 23. -22 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T Table 12 Index of Planned Investment in Capital Construction for Inland Water Transport in Communist China W 1953-58 1953 = 100 Year Index 1953 100 1954 174 1955 235 1956 N.A. 1957 260 1958 272 The extreme emphasis on shipbuilding rather than harbor development resulted in a greater fleet capacity than the various harbors could accommodate and undoubtedly contributed to the congestion which, although chronic, became severe in 1956 and 1958. The Chinese Com- munists apparently recognized this fact, for the 1957 plan reduced the amount allocated to shipbuilding to 55.53 percent and increased the investment in harbor development to 21.83 percent./12/ Although percentage figures for 1958 and 1959 are not available, the extensive harbor development observed indicates that increasing amounts have been allocated for this purpose. The problem of how much the Chinese Communists are actually in- vesting in inland water transport is further complicated by the in- vestment of considerable sums in water conservancy projects, which contribute substantially to the improvement of navigation. When completed, the San-men Dam will render the Yellow River navigable from its mouth to the dam. The development schemes in the Huai River Basin have already contributed greatly to the navigability of that river. Plans for regulating the Yangtze River should, if carried out, render the river much more useful as a transportation artery. The improve- ment of navigation by these programs is generally a secondary function subordinate to the major considerations of flood control, irrigation, and electric power. A tremendous amount of money and labor have gone into construction for water conservancy in the past few years, and it is not possible to determine what part of these inputs should be re- garded as investment in transportation. - 23 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T VII. 'Plans and Prospects Plans for the development of inland water transport in the Second Five Year Plan (1958-62) in Communist China have not been announced. Numerous programs now in progress under the direction of both the central authority and the provincial governments point, however, to continuous and increasing development and utilization of inland water transport. One of the more significant programs is the dredging of the Grand Canal to accommodate vessels of more than 2,000 GRT. When completed, this waterway will add greatly to the potential of the entire inland waterway system. A second significant program is the improve- ment of river channels in Szechwan Province, particularly the Chia- ling River. The general purpose of this development is to allow the transportation of petroleum from Szechwan to refineries at Nanking and Shanghai by an all-water route. This activity, however, also should increase the flow of agricultural commodities by inland water transport. Programs in harbor development and construction are wide- spread and should add greatly to port capacity. The port of Chungking is receiving extensive renovation and expansion of facilities. A new harbor is being constructed at Ma-an-shan, and the newly constructed port of Yu-chii-kyou is to be enlarged. it14/ Most of the bottlenecks in inland water transport have been inadequate ports. A program of port development such as the Chinese Communists seem to have undertaken could add to the capacity of the inland waterway system by as much as 50 per- cent. Extensive construction of canals such as has been announced in the provinces of Kiangsu and Anhwei will increase the ability of the inland waterway system to function as local transport. As programs of water conservancy result in deeper and more stable channels and a more con- stant flow of water, the ability of the inland waterway system to make substantial contributions to both the national and the local economies will be greatly enhanced. Continued expansion in terms of performance can also be expected. Although the central government indicated that the requirements of the economy for transportation in 1959 would be double those of 1958, it is estimated that modern inland water transport will carry only about 63 million tons originated in 1959. - 24- - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T APPENDIX A METHODOLOGY 1. General It is extremely doubtful if the Chinese Communists have precise and accurate figures for such items as the length of various rivers; the number of primitive or native craft; or the total amount of con- struction materials, such as sand and gravel, moved by native craft. Nevertheless, the Chinese are in a better position to estimate these and similar items than anyone else. For this reason, official Chinese government announcements have been used as source material wherever possible. Where official data were not available or were contradictory nr inponsistant Chinese and Soviet technical journals have been used. 50X1 2. Performance Data on performance of the modern sector of inland water trans- port in Communist China before 1957 are based largely on official Chinese announcements and are considered to be reliable. 142/ Data for 1957 are taken from an official Soviet source. itg Figures on total performance of both the primitive and the modern sectors are available only for 1954 and 1957, and data for 1956 which are used in Table 8* are estimsted from these 2 years. Estimates of performance of the primitive sector are also available only for 1954 and 1957. For this reason, no series of reliable estimates can be made for the total performance of the inland water fleet. Performance of inland water transport for 1958 is estimated on the basis of an announced performance of 210 million tons originated by all water transport. III/ It is believed that the performance of inland water transport increased at a greater rate than did that of coastal ship- ping. Therefore, the performance of inland water transport for 1958 is estimated to have increased 41 percent above the level of 1957 to a figure of 56.7 million tons originated. This figure is consistent with the known performance of both the primitive and the modern sec- tors of the inland water fleet in 1957 and allows for a 30-percent increase in the coastal sector while conforming to the announced over- all increase of 37 percent above total performance in 1957. * P. 15, above. -25- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: .7,1A-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T Data on performance of water transport on the various river sys- tems are much more scanty than on total performance in Communist China and are much less reliable. Table 5,* which gives the perform- ance of inland water transport on the Yangtze River, is based pri- marily on two sources. According to the periodical Shui-yun (River Transport), transport performance on the Yangtze in 1957 totaled 13.4 million tons originated.1E/ Another periodical, Ti-li Chih- shih (Geographic Knowledge) indicated that performance in 1953 was 5.3 million tons originated. Because the figure for 1953 represents an increase of 35.8 percent above performance in 1952, the tonnage moved in 1952 was 3.9 million tons originated.)22/ In 1954 an in- crease in performance of one-third above performance for the preced- ing year was announced, giving a total of 7.1 million tons origi- nated. 2/ The volume moved in 1955 was given as an index of 218.66, with 1952 as 100. 21/ Performance in 1955 therefore was 8.5 million tons originated. Performance in 1956 increased above performance in 1955 by 21 percent, giving a total of 10.3 million tons originated. Performance in 1958 is estimated by assuming that performance on the Yangtze River continued at the same level in relation to the total performance of inland water transport -- that is, about one-third of the total tons originated on inland waterways, or 18.9 million tons originated. 3. Commodities Estimates of the composition of cargo moved by modern inland water transport in Communist China in 1958 represent modifications of Table 8,** which gives this information for all inland water trans- port in 1956. In view of the tremendous emphasis placed on the move- ments of iron and steel and related products in 1958, it seems reason- able to assume that the increased movement of ferrous metals would have occurred in the modern sector and that goods of lower priority ,(construction materials and some grain) were forced to utilize the primitive sector. In reality the over-all composition of inland water traffic changed only slightly, as is indicated by the announcement that four major commodities -- grain, cotton, coal, and steel -- ac- counted for 4o percent of the total volume of inland water traffic in 1958. 2/ This figure is very close to the 1956 total for these same commodities as shown in Table 8. A considerable change, however, oc- curred in the traffic carried by the modern sector. Table 9*** gives estimates of the composition of modern inland water traffic, by commodity category, for 1956 and 1958. This estimate is based on the assumption that coal, ferrous materials, and grain would represent a P. 13, above. ** P. 15, above. *** P. 16, above. - 26 - S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 S-E-C-R-E-T greater percentage of performance by the modern sector than of total performance. The most significant change is in the relative increase of ferrous metals and the decline of construction materials. This change is reasonable in view of the general trend of the economy in 1958. It is obvious from government announcements that the shipments of materials related to production of iron and steel increased greatly on all types of transport, and the priority given to these goods would indicate that they tend to displace such items as sand, gravel, cement, and other construction materials from modern inland water transport. Table 9* shows the estimate of the composition of modern inland water traffic in 1958 based on the known composition of the total inland water traffic in 1956 (with its marked similarity to 1958) and the probable demands of the "leap forward" program on inland water transport. * P. 16, above. -27- S-E-C-R-E-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 R Next 3 Page(s) In Document Denied Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 50X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0 SECRET SECRET Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A001500110002-0