REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN COMMUNIST CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 63
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 26, 2013
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 9, 1957
• Content Type: REPORT

.1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION
OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
IN COMMUNIST CHINA
CIA/RR 102
9 October 1957
N? 77
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
l'eREL
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
, 1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
1
i
i
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
C IA-R D P79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E -C-R-E-T
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE REPORT
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ECONCMIC ACTIVITY IN CalMUNIST CHINA
CIA/RR 102
(ORB Project 10.831)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
S-E -C -R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
FOREWCRD
This report is essentially a regional analysis of the gross
national product of Communist China. It may be said to give a third
dimension to an understanding of the Chinese Communist economy by
adding estimates of the distribution of output geographically to
estimates of its distribution over time and among industries. It
also has been designed to provide the intelligence community with
background material on the 10 economic regions of Communist China.
It should be noted that the Chinese Communists have not yet
defined and announced an official system of economic regions. The
regional structure adopted in this report, although taken from a
Chinese Communist textbook on economic geography, must be regarded
as tentative. It is believed, however, that the system of economic
regions which is scheduled to appear during the course of the Sec-
ond Five Year Plan (1958-62) of Communist China will approximate the
system used in this report.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
CONTENTS
Page
Summary and Conclusions 1
I. Regional Structure of Communist China 3
A. Origin and Definition 3
B. Theory of Regional Development 6
II. General Description of Regions 8
A. Northeast China (Region I) 8
B. Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region Region II) . . . 9
C. North China (Region III) 10
D. East China (Region IV) 11
E. Central China (Region V) 12
F. South China (Region VI) 14
G. Southwest China (Region VII) 15
H. Northwest China (Region VIII) 16
I. Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region (Region IX) 18
III. Calculation and Presentation of Gross Regional Product. 19
IV. Regional Distribution of Production 27
V. Trends in Gross Regional Product) 1953-57 28
VI. Regional Variations in Per Capita Production 30
VII. Development of Coastal and Inland Areas 31
VIII. Trends in Geographical Distribution of Economic Activity
Through 1962 33
A. Trends in Regional Planning 33
B. Trends in the Development of Coastal and Inland
Areas 34
C. Trends in Regional Development 35
D. Trends in Concentration of Industry 38
-v -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Appendixes
Page
Appendix A. Statistical Tables 41
50X1
49
Appendix B. Methodology
Tables
1. Production of Selected Commodities in Communist China,
by Region, 1936, 1952, and 1957 21
2. Value of the Gross National Product of Communist China,
by Region and by Sector of Origin, 1952, 1954, and
1957
23
3. Distribution of the Gross National Product of Communist
China, by Region and by Sector of Origin, 1952, 1954,
and 1957 24
U. Sector Shares of the Gross National and Gross Regional
Products of Communist China, 1952, 1954) and 1957 . . 25
5. Comparative Growth of the Gross National and Gross
Regional Products of Communist China, by Sector of
Origin, 1952, 1954, and 1957 26
6. Per Capita Gross National and Gross Regional Products
of Communist China) 1952, 1954, and 1957 27
7. Population of Communist China, by Region, 1952, 1954,
and 1957 41
8. Total Farm Value of Grain and Cotton Production in
Communist China, by Region) 1952) 1954, and 1957
- vi -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S -E -C -R -E -T
9. Distribution of Major Heavy Industrial
Production in Cramminist China, by Region,
1952, 1954, and 1957
sO. Distribution of Selected Light Industrial
Production in Communist China, by Region,
1952, 1954, and 1957
11. Distribution of Services in Communist China,
by Region, 1952, 1954, and 1957
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Figure 5.
Figure 6.
Communist China:
(Mal))
Illustrations
Economic Regions
Communist China:
(Map)
Mineral Resources
Communist China: Regional Distribution
of Gross National Product, by Sector
of Origin, 1952, 1954, and 1957
(Chart)
Communist China: Regional Distribution
of Manufacturing Production, 1952,
1954, and 1957 (Chart)
Communist China: Regional Distribution
of Agricultural Production, 1952,
1954, and 1957 (Chart)
Communist China: Gross National Product
and Population, by Region, 1952,
1954, and 1957 (Chart).
S -E -C -R -E -T
Page
43
45
147
Following Page
6
20
20
20
20
20
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Figure 7. Communist
February
Figure 8. Communist
(Map)
S-E-C-R-E-T
China: Railroads as of
1957 (Map)
China: Soviet Aid Projects
S-E-C-R-E-T
Following Page
20
Inside
Back Cover
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
CIA/RR 102 S-E-C-R-E-T
(CRR Project 10.831)
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN COMMUNIST CHINA*
Summary and Conclusions
The Chinese Communists plan to effect a rational, balanced dis-
tribution of economic activity throughout the territory of China
within a period of three Five Year Plans. Although China's natural
resources are relatively well dispersed) the historical pattern of
industrial development had created an uneven geographical distribu-
tion of industrial capacity in the prerevolutionary period, with
77 percent of total industrial output originating in China's coastal
provinces in 1949. By way of contrast, China's vast and comparatively
less-populated hinterland, which contains nearly 70 percent of China's
total land area and includes the frontier regions of Southwest China,
Northwest China, Tibet) and the Inner Mongolian and the Sinkiang
Uighur Autonomous Regions, accounted for only about 8 percent of the
national industrial production in the same year. Planning effort
in China is aimed at rectifying this unbalanced concentration of
industry in order to promote industrial development close to sources
of raw materials and areas of consumption, to enhance national se-
curity, and to raise living standards in the backward areas of in-
land China.
By the end of the First Five Year Plan (1953-57), there will be
little progress toward achieving a more balanced distribution of
economic activity. The distribution of the agricultural output of
Communist China will remain relatively stable, with slight gains
registered in the regions of North China, Central China, and South
China. This trend will probably continue, since the primary method
of increasing agricultural production during the period of the Second
Five Year Plan (1958-62) is to raise yields in existing agricultural
centers through such means as application of fertilizer, expansion of
irrigation, and double cropping. On the other hand, the program of
railroad consiruction in China during the First Five Year Plan is con-
centrating on the underdeveloped regions of western China, with rail
* The estimates and conclusions contained in this report represent the
best judgment of ORR as of 15 June 1957.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
access to Yu-men (China's largest oil producer) in Kansu Province, com-
pletion of the Trans-Mongolian line to the USSR, and the linking of the
Northwest China and Southwest China regions by means of the Pao-chi --
Cheng-tu railroad representing major achievements. Although this trend
will continue throughout the period of the Second Five Year Plan, culmi-
nating in the completion of the Trans-Sinkiang line as a fourth link with
the USSR and of a new north-south trunk system located about 600 miles
inland from the coast) a major effort will also be directed toward a
rehabilitation of existing lines to solve the growing problem of traffic
congestion in the old industrial areas of China.
In planning industrial development, Communist China has been guided
by much the same economic considerations as those prevailing in other
countries. The governing principle in the First Five Year Plan appears
to be the location of new industry close to known sources of raw materials
and fuel. Within the latitudinal alignment of China's economic regions
from north to south) more than 70 percent of total industrial investment
during the period 1953 through 1955 was channeled into Northeast China
and North China, regions which together account for 85 and 66 percent,
respectively, of national coal and electric power production. In the
east-west division of China between coastal and inland areas, approxi-
mately 45 percent of all capital construction investment and a consid-
erably higher proportion of industrial investment were allocated to
the existing industrial bases in the coastal provinces during this same
period. Furthermore, the decision by Chinese Communist economic planners
in 1956 to place greater emphasis on the development of coastal industry
reflected a growing awareness of the concentration of industrial fixed
assets, of the much higher rate of labor productivity, and of the much
greater number of engineering and technical personnel to be found in the
coastal provinces of China. At the same time, it should be stressed
that an increasingly greater proportion of industrial investment will
flow into inland China during.the Second Five Year Plan as new bases of
iron ore, coal, and hydroelectric power are established. This trend,
which is influenced by considerations of national security, is best
illustrated by the planned construction of centers of heavy industry
clustered about large-scale iron and steel complexes in the Inner Mon-
golian Autonomous Region, Central China, Southwest China, and North-
west China and about huge hydroelectric power projects on the upper
reaches of the Yellow River.
-2 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
The First Five Year Plan will result in a noticeable shift northward
in the regional distribution of economic activity, due primarily to the
rapid development of existing industrial bases north of the Yangtze
River. This is seen most clearly in the manufacturing sector of North-
east China, which will increase its share of national heavy industrial
output from about 48 percent in 1952 to 52 percent in 1957. The First
Five Year Plan also provides for a heavier concentration of industry
within the leading industrial complex of China, located within a
radius of 45 miles in central Liaoning Province (Northeast China) and
bounded by the cities of Mukden, Fu-shun, Pen-ch'i, and An-shan.
Moreover, Shanghai, long regarded as the prime example of excessive
concentration of industry in pre-Communist China, is being built up
into a heavy industrial base as the result of a decision made in 1956.
This trend toward increasing concentration of heavy industry will con-
tinue until the latter part of the Second Five Year Plan when the new
inland industrial bases centered about large iron and steel combines
and hydroelectric power projects will come into being.
These findings underscore the long-term nature of the economic
'program of Communist China to construct new industrial bases in
previously hnderdeveloped areas. Not until 1961 or 1962 will China
achieve visible results in its widely publicized endeavor to create
a rational, balanced distribution of economic activity throughout its
vast territory.
I. Regional Structure of Communist China.
A. Origin and Definition.
The basis for the current regional structure of the economy
of Communist China was inherited from prerevolutionary China. The
Chinese economy was marked in the past by a heavy concentration of
economic development in the coastal area* and in Northeast China
* The coastal area, as defined by the Chinese Communists, includes the
seven coastal provinces of Liaoning, Hopeh, Shantung, Kiangsu, Chekiang,
Fukien, and Kwangtung and the three special municipalities of Shanghai,
Tientsin, and Peiping. The inland area encompasses all the remaining
provinces of China.
- 3 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
(Region I*), where a combination of relative political stability) the
existence of a modern transport system, the availability of agri-
cultural and industrial raw materials, and the proximity to large mar-
kets attracted foreign capital. Smaller centers of economic develop-
ment had arisen in Southwest China (Region VII) under the stimulus of
wartime necessity and, to a lesser extent, in several other regions
where enterprising warlords had encouraged the formation of industry.
Industrial development was even more heavily concentrated in the
coastal area. In 1949, 77 percent of the total industrial output
of China originated in the coastal provinces. 1/** By way of contrast,
China's comparatively less populated hinterland, containing nearly 70 per-
cent of China's total land area and including the frontier regions of
Inner Mongolia (Region II)) Southwest China, Northwest China (Region
VIII), Sinkiang (Region IX), and Tibet (Region X), accounted for only
about 8 percent of the national industrial production in the same
year. 2/
The regional structure established by the Chinese Communists
upon coming to power, however, was not based on geographic or econo-
mic factors. Designated as administrative areas and governed by mili-
tary and administrative commissions, these regions reflected to a large
extent the military situation which existed in China at that time.
The regional organs of government served to fill the administrative gap
which traditionally has separated the central regime from local levels
of government. 2/ At the same time, this system took cognizance of
the different stages of political, social, and economic development in
* The regions referred to in this report reflect all territorial
changes up to 1 January 1956. Tibet, although included in the list of
regions given below, is omitted from discussion in this report because
the Chinese Communists apparently have decided to delay economic devel-
opment of this region until the period of the Third Five Year Plan.
The regions are designated by number and name as follows:
Northeast China
VI
South China
II
Inner Mongolian Autonomous
VII
Southwest China
Region
VIII
Northwest China
III
North China
IX
Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous
IV
East China
Region
V
Central China
X
Tibet
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
the various regions of China. 4/ Following the extension and consoli-
dation of the authority of the central government, the powers of the
regional organs were curtailed sharply in 1952 when they were trans-
formed into administrative committees supervising the provincial
governments on behalf of the central government. In the latter half
of 1954, the regional administrative organs were abolished altogether.
Regional economic planning and reporting during 1950-54 were
carried on within the framework of these administrative areas. The
First Five Year Plan (1953-57), which was compiled during 1951-55
and published in July 1955, employed the same regional system. 2/ At
the same time, the First Five Year Plan introduced another geographi-
cal frame of reference which distributed new industrial construc-
tion between coastal and inland areas,* in this way stressing the
Importance of security considerations in Communist China's program of
industrial development. ?/ Several developments in 1956, however,
indicated that the Chinese Communists were in the process of drawing up
a formal system of economic regions based on the Soviet pattern. The
first was the appearance of a textbook on the economic geography of
Communist China organized on the basis of 10 economic regions. I/
The second was the publication of the Draft Proposals for the Second
Five Year Plan which discussed industrial construction plans within
the framework of these same 10 regions. ?J The last development was
an article appearing in Hsueh-hsil the official organ of the Chinese
Communist Party, which stated that a system of economic regions for
China would be forthcoming during the period of the Second Five Year
Plan (1958-62). 2/
This report adopts the regional structure of China's economy
employed in the Chinese Communist textbook on economic geography
mentioned above.. Although the regions constituting this system are
only groupings of provinces, they are reasonably well integrated
from the standpoint of economic, geographic, and cultural features.
It is believed that the economic regions as defined and officially
announced by the Chinese Communists during the course of the Second
Five Year Plan will approximate those used in this report. The
economic regions of Communist China are shown in Figure 1.**
* See footnote on p. 3, above.
** Following p. 6.
- 5 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
?B. Theory of Regional Development.
The theory of regional development underlying the economic
planning of Communist China, given the regional structure as defined
(in A, above) and recognizing that the planning process must be carried
out within an area framework, is defined substantially in the following
excerpt from China's First Five Year Plan:
The geographical distribution of our new industrial
capital construction must conform with the long-term in-
terests of the state, and take account of conditions at
different stages of our development. It must follow the
principle of appropriately distributing our industrial
productive forces over various parts of the country, lo-
cating industries close to sources of raw materials and
fuel and areasof consumption, and complying with the
need to strengthen national defence, so as to change
gradually the irrational distribution of industry and
develop the economy of backward areas. 10/
In accordance with this general statement of principle, the
First Five Year Plan announcement contained the following specific pro-
visions governing the geographical distribution of industrial capital
construction: (1) expansion of existing industrial bases, especially in
Northeast China, in order to support the construction of new industrial
areas; (2) construction of new industrial bases in North China (Region
III), Northwest China, and Central China (Region V), centering around
two new iron and steel combines to be established in Pao-t'ou and
Wu-han; and (3) the carrying out of preparatory work for the construc-
tion of a new industrial base in Southwest China.
Each of the principles underlying the above theory of regional
development proceeds from propositions fundamental to Marxist ideology,
and each may be found in Soviet treatises on political economy. Al-
though the Chinese Communists claim that these principles are peculiarly
appropriate to China's own history of economic development, they have
encountered the same difficulties experienced by the Russians in
attempting to apply these rather vague criteria in regional planning.
The first principle enumerated above -- that of locating pro-
duction close to the sources of raw materials and to the areas of con-
sumption -- springs from the belief of Soviet and Chinese planners that
- 6 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
most transportation is an uneconomical use of resources. Shanghai is
frequently cited as an example of an industrial area located far away
from its sources of raw materials and fuel in the prerevolutionary
period. As the leading textile center of China, 60 to 70 percent of
its cotton supply had to be transported from North or Central China or
even from abroad. In addition, several million tons of coal were
brought in from North China each year to support Shanghai's industrial
production. 11/ In conformity with this principle, more than 70 percent
of total industrial investment during 1953-55 was channeled into North-
east China (Region I) and North China (Region III), regions which
account for 85 and 66 percent, respectively, of national coal and elec-
tric power.production. 12/ It will be noted that this principle does
not provide any guidance when the consumption areas and the raw ma-
terial and fuel-producing areas for a given industry are widely sep-
arated. The statement does imply, however, that the principle of
locating industry so as to minimize total cost (including transporta-
tion cost) is one of the considerations in the minds of Chinese
Communist planners.
The second principle -- that of national security -- has been
a prominent feature of all Chinese Communist discussions of regional
economic development. With about 73 percent 13/ of total industrial
output and more than 80 percent of the output of the ferrous metallurgy
and machine-building industries located in the coastal provinces in
1952, 14/ the Communist regime has considered itself peculiarly ex-
posed and vulnerable to foreign attack. This was a major consideration
In the decision to locate in China's interior more than two-thirds of
the 694 major industrial construction projects provided in the First
Five Year Plan. 15/
The third principle -- that
tion of peoples in backward areas -
It may be assumed that the economic
in the first two principles are the
theory of, regional development.
of the economic and cultural eleva-
- is largely ideological in character.
and security considerations embodied
major factors underlying China's
A final principle, not mentioned in the above statement but
referred to in recent discussions by Chinese Communist writers, seeks
to combine regional self-sufficiency with an optimum degree of speciali-
zation in the production of economic regions. 16/ Implementation of
this principle in regional planning must await the official definition
and announcement of economic regions scheduled for the Second Five Year
Plan period.
- 7 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Expositions of the above principles in Chinese Communist
publications have been vague. The principles themselves do not provide
precise guides for the location of industry, and some are mutually contra-
dictory. Experience has shown that the interpretation of these prin-
ciples by the Chinese Communists has changed from year to year, as
evidenced by the shift in 1956 to more intensive development of industry
in the coastal provinces of China.
II. General Description of Regions.
A. Northeast China (Region I).
Northeast China (Region I) is the most important industrial
region in Communist China, accounting for more than half of the nation's
heavy industrial production. It covers an area of 297,000 square miles
and includes the provinces of Heilungkiang, Kirin, and Liaoning.
The heaviest concentration of industrial activity is found in
the coastal province of Liaoning. In one heavy industry zone are
located Communist China's leading centers for the production of ferrous
metals (An-shan); of coal, refined petroleum, and aluminum (Fu-shun);
and of machine tools (Mukden). Closely linked by railroads to this
complex is Port Arthur - Dairen, located on one of China's best harbors
and containing sizable shipbuilding, machinery, and chemical industries
as well as a major naval base. 17/
As the result of a conscious effort to shift industry inland, the
industrial development of Northeast China is moving northward. 18/ In
Kirin Province, large motor vehicle and railroad-equipment plants are
under construction in Ch'ang-ch'un and a new chemical center is being
established in the city of Kirin. Harbin, in the northernmost province
of Heilungkiang, is becoming an important new base of heavy industry,
specializing in the manufacture of electrical equipment and heavy?
machinery. 19/
This region possesses a rich mineral base of coal, iron, non-
ferrous metals, and oil shale (see Figure 2*). Well over half of
Communist China's iron ore reserves are located in the vicinity of
An-shan. 20/ Although only about 7 percent of China's coal deposits
are found in Northeast China, 21/.it accounts for 4o percent of national
production and exports large quantities of coal to other regions and
abroad.
* Following p.20.
- 8 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S -E -C -R -E -T
A large part of the perimeter of the region is composed of
densely wooded mountains, which contain about one-third of all the
forests of the country. In the center of the region lies China's
largest plain, a fertile tract of more than 115,000 square miles
drained by the Sungari and Liao Rivers, where are grown such varied
crops as wheat, kaoliang, soybeans, cotton, rice, sugar beets, and
flax. 22/ The northern section of this plain is one of the key
centers of land reclamation, with nearly one-third of the new land
to be opened to cultivation under the First Five Year Plan located
here. Producing about 12 percent of China's food supply and pos-
sessing less than 8 percent of the total population, this region is
a major grain-surplus area. 23/
With nearly half of Communist China's railroads concentrated
in this region in the prerevolutionary period, Northeast China has a
well-developed communications system. This facilitates the export
of coal, heavy manufactures, and foodstuffs to the rest of China and
to the world and the import of industrial raw materials, complex
capital goods, and some textiles.
B. Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region (Region II).
Established in 1947, the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region
(Region II) remained for several years a relatively minor, largely
undeveloped agricultural region. With the addition of portions of
the former Liaopei, Chahar, and Jehol Provinces and the incorpo-
ration of all of Suiyuan Province, however, this region has more
than doubled in population and now accounts for one-tenth of China's
total area.
Moreover, the city of Pao-t'ou, located in southwestern
Inner Mongolia, has been selected as the site of 1 of the 2 new iron
and steel combines to be constructed during the First and Second Five
Year Plans and to serve as the center of new industrial bases in the
interior. With rail connections either completed or nearing completion
to raw material centers in Inner Mongolia and North China (Region III) and
to the USSR, the tempo of construction of this combine has accelerated
rapidly. After the Pao-t'ou - Lan-chou railroad is completed, the
transportation system of this region will be further improved and
the products of the combine can then be sent to Northwest China (Region
VIII) as well.
- 9 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002.-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
The Pao-t'ou area is frequently described as rich in iron ore,
coking coal, and heat-resistant materials. It is estimated that 150
million tons of iron ore deposits of very good quality are located at
Pal-yu-no-po, 90 miles to the north, and a spur rail line to this site
was slated for completion by the end of 1956. 25/ Although a modern
shaft mine is being sunk at Ta-ch'ing-sh'an near Pao-t'ou, it is
believed that much of the fuel for the new combine will be supplied
from the Ta-t'ung coal center in North China. 26/
In the northern part of Inner Mongolia, the Great Khingan
mountain range contains one-sixth of the total forest area of
Communist China and is an important source of timber for the capital
construction program of China. 27/ Animal husbandry is one of the
basic branches of the economy, utilizing the southwestern and north-
western semidesert regions of the province and providing food, clothing,
and draft animals for internal consumption and export. The center of
agriculture is found in the southeast, where the predominant population
Is Chinese and the population density is the highest. The principal
crop here is kaoliang, followed by millet, corn, and wheat. 28/ This
region is a grain-surplus area, shipping out more than one-fourth of
its total output in 1954 and receiving in return textiles and light
manufactures. 29/
C. North China (Region III).
North China (Region III) is the second most important industrial
region of Communist China, ranking behind only Northeast China (Region I)
in heavy industry and East China (Region IV) in light industry. 30/ It
covers an area of 639,000 square kilometers and includes the provinces
of Hopeh, Shansi, Shantung, and Ronan as well as the two leading metro-
politan centers of Peiping and Tientsin.
There are three industrial zones in North China. One is tri-
angular in shape, linking Peiping and T'ang-shan with Tientsin as the
center and comprising one of the largest industrial areas in Communist
China. 31/ Tientsin, which serves both as North China's largest port
and as a key railroad junction, is China's second largest industrial
city, 32/ specializing in textiles and other consumer goods and, more
recently, in machine building and steel products. Peiping, the national
capital, is the seat of government and military headquarters, the
national center of education, and a major transportation center in its
own right. Known in the past for its iron and steel and consumer goods
production, its industrial base has been extended in the past few years
to include important cotton textile mills and machine tool plants. 33/
- 10 -
S -E-C -R -E -T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Situated further south on the Shansi-Hopeh border is the
Shih-chia-chuang - Tai-yuan industrial complex. This zone, which is
heralded as one of Communist China's future industrial bases in the
interior, is being equipped with new or expanded facilities in coal
mining, steel, heavy machinery, chemicals, cotton textiles, and
textile machinery. 34/ The third new industrial base is located in
the Cheng-chou - Lo-yang area of Honan Province in the southwestern
part of this region. 35/ Situated in one of the notable cotton-pro-
ducing districts of China, Cheng-chou is being developed into a major
center of the textile industry. One-sixth of all cotton spindles to
be added during the First Five Year Plan have been allocated to
Cheng-chou. Lc-yang is to be the site of China's first tractor plant
and also of a large mining-equipment plant to assist in the exploi-
tation of the sizable coal deposits nearby.
North China possesses a rich mineral resource base for the
development bf heavy industry. More than half of Communist China's.
coal reserves are located here, 36/ together with substantial iron
ore deposits. Although the Yellow River plain and loess lands in
the region are well adapted to the production of wheat and coarse
grains and although North China is the nation's largest grain pro-
ducer, it is a grain-deficit area which must import large quantities
of food each year. 37/ This situation is partly explained by the
density of population and by the fact that much of the land in the
south of this region is devoted to cotton production (one-half of the
national total). Other exports of the region include coal, textiles,
groundnuts, heavy industrial machinery, and chemicals.
D. East China (Region IV).
East China (Region IV) covers an area of 347,000 square
kilometers and contains the two coastal provinces of Kiangsu and
Chekiang as well as the inland province of Anhwei and the special
municipality of Shanghai. Traditionally the center of light indus-
try, largely owned and operated by foreign capital in the past, this
region has been viewed by Chinese Communist planners as an existing
industrial base to be utilized in support of new industrial con-
struction in the regions of the interior. 38/
The principal industrial zone of East China is located on
the delta of the Yangtze River. It consists of the smaller cities
of Hang-chou, Su-chou, Wu-shih, Nan-tung, and Nanking that surround
S-E-C -R -E -T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Shanghai. Despite a conscious effort to restrict its importance,
Shanghai still remains the largest industrial and commercial city in
Communist China) accounting for about 20 percent of China's total
industrial output in 1956.* Although Shanghai continues to produce
more than one-third of China's cotton cloth, cotton yarn, and cigarettes,
its industrial base has been broadened to include major components of
China's machine building, electrical machinery, metallurgical) ship-
building, and chemical industries. J.2/ It is with a view of supporting
this developing heavy industry in Shanghai that pig iron capacity at
Ma-an-than and coal mining capacity at Huai-nan are being expanded in
nearby Anhwei Province. 4o/
East China is deficient in mineral wealth) containing no
more than 1 percent of Communist China's coal reserves and perhaps
3 percent of its iron ore reserves. This region is consistently short
of coal and must import large quantities annually from North China
(Region III) and Northeast China (Region I). Lill A mild climate,
plentiful rainfall, and fertile soil combine to make East China the
most highly developed agricultural region in China. It stands first
in the production of silk, tea, and jute; second in the production of
wheat, cotton, and tobacco; and third in the production of rice, soy-
beans) and peanuts. Nevertheless, it is still a food-deficit area
because of its concentrated urban population and must import grain from
Northeast, Central (Region V), or Southwest (Region VII) China. 1E/
A network of railroad, road) and water transport facilitates the
extensive interregional trade of this region, with consumer goods and
medium engineering products being exchanged for raw cotton, foodstuffs,
and coal.
E. Central China (Region V).
Central China (Region V) has long been known as "China's
granary," serving as the principal source of rice supply for the regions
north of the Yellow River. Situated at the crossroads of the internal
waterway and rail transport networks, it includes the three provinces
of Hupeh, Hunan, and Kiangsi.
In prerevolutionary China the industrial development of the
region was limited largely to the textile and food-processing industries,
especially after the Chinese Nationalists in 1938 removed existing
steel-smelting and steel-rolling equipment from Wu-han in the face of the
Japanese advance and transferred it to Chungking in Southwest China
* See Appendix B.
-12 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
D1A-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
(Region VII). 43/ With the launching of China's First Five Year Plan
in 1953, however, two new industrial bases were scheduled for con-
struction in Central China. The most important is the Wu-han - Ta-yeh
zone of heavy industry, where a new iron and steel combine second only
to that at An-shan will be established. Other current or planned in-
dustrial construction includes the Ta-yeh open-cut iron mine, the Wu-han
Heavy Machine Tool Plant, the Wu-ch'ang Shipyard, and possibly an in-
ternal combustion engine plant together with China's second motor
vehicle plant. The second new industrial zone lies in the central
part of Hunan Province, centering about the machine tool, electrical
equipment, and textile industries of Ch'ang-sha and Hsiang-t'an. 44/
The relative scarcity of iron ore and coal in Central China
has had a decisive influence in molding its past industrial develop-
ment. Although iron ore deposits at Ta-yeh are of high grade and easily
accessible, it will be necessary to augment this source of supply by
shipping ore from Fukien Province in South China (Region VI). 45/
With only about 3 percent of China's coal reserves, the region is still
dependent upon imports of coal from both North China (Region III) and
East China (Region IV) despite strenuous efforts to expand its own
mining capacity. Mineral wealth consists largely of ferroalloying
metals and nonferrous metals -- the largest reserves and output of
tungsten and antimony in the world are found here. 46/
With ample rainfall, extensive irrigation, and a warm climate
permitting multiple cropping in the central and southern parts, Central
China leads in the production of rice and rape seeds, stands second in
the production of tea, and accounts for important shares of cotton and
wheat output. 47/ Despite its heavy population density, it is a
grain-surplus area and exports foodstuffs to North and East China.
The transportation facilities of Central China are more diversi-
fied than those of other regions, with a major trunk rail line running
north and south and Communist China's largest navigable waterway, the
Yangtze River, running east and west. Standing at the center of this
transportation network is Wu-han, a transshipment point for waterborne
cargoes from Northeast (Region I) and Southwest China and for rail car-
goes from Peiping and Canton. Upon completion in 1957 of the huge Yangtze
River Bridge at Wu-han, this city will become the main pivot of rail
and road transport between North and South China.
13 -
S -E -C -R -E -T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
F. South China (Region VI).
The special features of the region of South China (Region VI)
are its subtropical agriculture ?and its strategic position in proximity
to Taiwan and Vietnam. Located on the Taiwan Strait and the South
China Sea, it consists of the provinces of Fukien, Kwangtung, and
Kwangsi as well as the island of Hainan.
Industrial development in South China has been limited almost
entirely to consumer goods, with handicraft industry still contributing
the major share of industrial output. 48/ Modern industry, which is
largely concentrated in Canton, includes cotton and silk textiles, food
processing (principally sugar), paper, and cement. Industrial invest-
ment has centered on the new construction or expansion of existing
sugar refineries, which accounted for 70 percent of the sugar pro-
duction of Communist China in 1953. 49/ A much larger amount of state
investment in the region has been utilized for development of the fol-
lowing transportation and communications facilities: the early comple-
tion of a railroad line to the Indochina border in order to furnish
military support to the Viet Minh forces; the construction of a branch
railroad line to Tsamkong (Fort Bayard) and the development of a
deep-sea harbor at this point to replace the relatively poor port of
Canton; and the linking of Amoy with the inland rail net, thereby
greatly increasing Communist China's logistic capabilities in the
Taiwan Strait area.
Although moderately well endowed with mineral resources, the
mining industry of South China is still undeveloped. A major de-
ficiency is coal, which must be imported from Central China (Region V)
and North China (Region III) to provide fuel for industry. Future
plans call for both the expansion of coal production and the exploi-
tation of the abundant hydroelectric resources of this region. 50/
One of China's leading iron deposits is under development on Hainan
Island and high-grade iron ore in the Lung-yen District of Fukien
Province will be extracted as a supplementary source of supply for the
Wu-han iron and steel complex. Of the relatively plentiful supply of
nonferrous metals found here, tin and antimony already account for
important shares of national output.
Considerable emphasis has been placed on the development of
agriculture during the period of the First Five Year Plan. Formerly
dependent on rice imports from Southeast Asia, South China is now said
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
-E-C -8 -E-T
to be more than self-sufficient in foodstuffs. In keeping with its
subtropical climate, this region leads in the production of cane sugar
and fruit, stands second in silk production, and produces one-tenth of
the nation's tea. 51/ A large-scale program to develop rubber plan-
tations is under way in both Kwangtung Province and Hainan.
G. Southwest China (Region VII).
Southwest China (Region VII) possesses an essentially self-
contained economy relatively remote from the main channels of communi-
cation and trade in Communist China. Covering an area of 430,000 square
miles, it includes the provinces of Szechwan, Kweichow, and Yunnan.
Southwest China experienced a rapid rate of economic growth
during World War II but has received little emphasis in Communist China's
industrialization program during the period of the First Five Year
Plan. 52/ One reason has been the need to develop a modern transport
system. With Ch'eng-tu in western Szechwan as the hub, railroad lines
have been or will be extended north to Paci-ch'il southeast to Chungking,
and south to K'un-ming. Moreover, the planned construction of a second
Yangtze River bridge at Chungking and of the Szechwan-Kweichow Railroad
will permit through traffic to Tsamkong Harbor (Fort Bayard) on the
South China coast. 53/ Investments in railroad and highway transport
accounted for more than half of total capital construction investment
in this region in 1954. 54/
It has also been necessary to carry out extensive prospecting
and surveying in order to secure reliable data on the natural resources
of this region, principally with respect to iron, coal, petroleum, and
nonferrous metals. Although coal and iron are both relatively scarce,
discoveries in Szechwan of deposits of both of these minerals have been
described as sufficient to support the future construction of an iron
and steel base in Chungking. To compensate for its coal deficiency,
the hydroelectric resources of Southwest China are estimated to consti-
tute 65 percent of the total in Communist China. 22/ Construction is
partly completed on the Shih-tzu-tan hydroelectric station which will
serve as a supplementary source of power for Chungking. The region is
particularly noted for nonferrous metals, with the nation's largest
reserves of tin and copper and with 80 percent of China's tin production
concentrated in the Ko-ch'iu area of Yunnan Province.
- 15 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Industrial construction to date has been limited almost
entirely to the cities of Chungking and Ch'eng-tu in Szechwan Province
and the Ko-ch'iu - K'un-ming area of Yunnan Province. Chungking's iron
and steel capacity, brought in by the Chinese Nationalists during
World War II, has been expanded, together with new additions in the
power, machine tool, textile, and food-processing industries. 56/
Ch'eng-tu is the site for construction of China's largest measuring
instrument and cutting tool plant and is slated to become a machine
tool center in this region. 57/ The development of tin and copper
production in the Ko-ch'iu - K'un-ming area will make this the major
supply base of nonferrous metals outside of Sinkiang.
Southwest China is characterized by a highly varied topo-
graphy and climate, with much of the food production centered in the
Szechwan Basin, where a mild climate, rich soil, and abundant rain
produce favorable conditions for agriculture. Although Szechwan is
the largest grain-producing province in China, it is also the most
populous, and Southwest China as a whole is considered to be little
more than self-sufficient in foodstuffs. 58/ Following the develop-
ment of transportation and communications, Southwest China will expand
its exports of nonferrous metals and agricultural products and receive
in exchange some light manufactures and machinery.
H. Northwest China (Region VIII).
Northwest China (Region VIII) is the largest of Communist
China's economic regions, occupying nearly 20 percent of the nation's
territory and including the three provinces of Shensi, Kansu, and
Tginghai. .A relatively underdeveloped area, it bulks large in the
long-range planning of the Chinese Communists as one of the three major
industrial areas of the country.
As in Southwest China (Region VII), most of the investment to
date has been devoted to the development of transportation facilities
and to the large-scale prospecting of the abundanttmineral resources
of the region. Lan-chou in Kansu Province is to become the hub of
an extensive communications network, with railroad lines completed or
in various stages of construction extending to the east (to Ain the
Lunghai railroad), to the north (to the iron and steel combine at
Pao-t'ou), to the northwest (to Sinkiang ,and the USSR), and to the
west (to the new petroleum area in the Tsaidam Basin). Major emphasis
in geological prospecting has been assigned to exploring the petroleum
-16-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
deposits of this region, which already accounts for more than half
of Communist China's production of crude oil. Extensive oil deposits
have been discovered in the Tsaidam Basin in Tsinghai Province where
reportedly 91 oil-bearing structures have been found. 59/ Recent
discoveries of iron ore) principally in the Ho-hsi corridor in Kansu,
are said to be sufficient for an iron and steel base, ?2/ and coal is
plentiful, with nearly one-third of China's reserves found in this
region. 61/ Nevertheless, considerable investment and time are
required before these resources can be exploited and made available
for industrial construction within the region. Current coal production
Is no more than 3 percent of the national total, and it is still
necessary to transport coal more than 3,000 kilometers from Northeast
China (Region I) to make up for the deficiency. 62/
Except for the expansion of the existing oil base at Yu-men in
Kansu Province) industrial construction in Northwest China has been
largely confined to the cities of Lan-chou and Sian. Although reports
since 1950 have stressed the growing industrial importance of Lan-chou
in southeastern Kansu, large-scale investment did not get under way
until 1956 when construction started on a_huge_petroleum refinery and
a petroleum drilling equipment plant. 63/ Already there has been some
development of the chemical, power, cement, woolen textile, and food-
processing industries in this city. On the other hand) Sian has been
selected as the site of a major inland cotton textile base, with nearly
25 percent of all cotton spindles to be added during the First Five Year
Plan allocated to this city and nearby Hsien-yang. Located in the
K'uan-ch'uan Plain, a rich cotton-producing area in central Shensi Pro-
vince, this complex was able to satisfy more than half of the region's
demand for cotton textiles in 1954. 64/ Sian is also slated to become
a major railroad center during the Second and Third Five Year Plan
periods, with rail lines projected to the new iron and steel bases in
Pao-t'ou to the north and Wu-han to the southeast. 65/
Northwest China is characterized by a complicated topography,
with extremes of elevation averaging 3,000 meters above sea level, and
a typically continental climate. Generally speaking, it lacks rainfall,
especially in the western parts, and for this reason irrigation is the
key to the development of agriculture. This region's irrigated area
was expanded by one-third from 1950 to 19541 accounting for one-fifth
of the newly irrigated land for all China during this period. Partly
for this reason, Northwest China is now considered to be self-sufficient
In food production) .??../ specializing in wheat and such miscellaneous
-17-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S -E -C -R -E - T
grains as millet, maize, kaoliang, and potatoes. Animal huabandry
also plays a large part in the regional economy. The region produces
half of China's wool and sizable quantities of animal byproducts for
export. 67/ Other principal exports are cotton, rare minerals, and
petroleum which are exchanged for light manufactures and engineering
equipment.
Long-range development plans for Northwest China include the
construction of additional industrial bases, the initiation of large-
scale land reclamation, and the building of a multipurpose reservoir
at Liu-chia Gorge as part of the project for harnessing the Yellow
River. A continuing problem is the region's sparse population, only
5 percent of the national total, and consequent lack of manpower,
especially technical manpower. The Chinese Communist government is
faced, therefore, with the necessity of mobilizing and transporting
large numbers of technicians and skilled labor if this ambitious pro-
gram for the development of Northwest China is to be implemented.
I. Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region (Region IX).
The Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region (Region IX) is the largest
political unit in Communist China, covering an area three times the
size of France. On the other hand, the population numbers about 5
million, of which only about 6 percent are Chinese.
Before 1949, modern industry was practically nonexistent in
this region. Although some factories and mines have been constructed,
large-scale construction in Sinkiang is not scheduled to begin until the
Second Five Year Plan period. 68/ Completion of the Trans-Sinkiang
Railroad, probably by 1958 or 1959, will make possible the shipment
of necessary equipment and supplies, both from the industrial bases in
the eastern part of Communist China and from the USSR. Urumchi, the
capital of Sinkiang, is slated to become the center of heavy industry
in the western border regions of China, specializing in the production
of iron and steel, power, and cement; the repair and assembly of motor
vehicles; and the processing of nonferrous metals. 69/
Of more significance for national economic development are the
recent discoveries of vast oil deposits in the Wu-su - Karamai area
of northern Sinkiang. The Chinese Communists are relying heavily
upon this oilfield, containing estimated reserves of more than 100
million tons, to achieve self-sufficiency in petroleum production. In
-18-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
addition to constructing a branch railroad line to the area, a huge
refinery is to be built here. 70/ Despite claims of extensive coal
deposits, a long-range program of prospecting and new mine construction
will be necessary before fuel requirements can be satisfied within
the region. 21/ Less is known of iron ore deposits) although some ore
is available near the metallurgical plant in Urumchi. Also found
near Urumchi in the T'ien-shan Mountains are substantial quantities
of lead, zinc, and copper.
Surrounded by high mountains on all sides, Sinkiang possesses
a continental arid steppe and desert climate. Since agricultural
production is dependent upon irrigation, considerable efforts have
been made to expand the area under cultivation through the construction
of new irrigation systems and the expansion of old ones. Most of the
reclamation work has been handled by the military forces, which are
scheduled to produce nearly one-tenth of the grain output and more
than one-half of the cotton output of the region in 1957. la/ The
northern part of Sinkiang, which has level, rich land suitable for
mechanized farming, is one of the key areas in China's land reclama-
tion program. Plans are already under way for the large-scale re-
settlement of surplus population from North China (Region III) to
engage in cotton and grain production in this region. 73/
III. Calculation and Presentation of Gross Regional Product.
The estimates of gross regional product presented in this report
are based on estimates of gross national product (GNP) and its com-
ponents for all of Communist China. The regional data consist essen-
tially of estimates for the years 1952) 1954, and 1957 of the total
physical output of a long list of commodities, together with the per-
centage of the total produced in each region. The regional shares of
production of a list of selected commodities are given also for 1936 in
order to show output trends based on peak production years in the pre-
war period. Table 1* shows the regional production of selected commod-
ities in China for 1936, 1952, and 1957. The regional shares were
applied to the national estimates of value added in the production of
each commodity. The sum of these values was considered to be a rep-
resentative sample of the regional output of the major industrial
* Table 1 follows on p. 21.
-19-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S -E -C -R -E-T
sectors producing physical goods. These samples were then inflated to
full coverage by applying them to the national value-added estimates for
the respective major industrial sectors, the results being combined with
estimates of the value added by the services sector to yield a measure
of total regional production.
The major findings of this report are presented in Tables 2-6* and
in Tables 7-11** to serve as a basis for subsequent discussion. Table 2
contains measures of real gross regional product (in constant 1952 prices)
according to major sectors of origin for 1952, 1954, and 1957. The
same data, expressed as a percentage of the national total to show the
regional distribution of GNP, are presented in Table 3. Table 4, indi-
cating the relative importance of each major economic sector in the out-
put of each region, depicts the changing composition of production in
each regional economy. Table 5 shows comparative rates of growth by
major economic sector within each region. Table 6 presents per capita
GNP and gross regional product for the years in question. Table 7
presents data on regional population. Tables 8-11 indicate the value
of production of a sample of products in each major economic sector
together with the regional coefficients for the major sectors of the
economy.
Figures 2- 7xxx show graphically various aspects of the regional
economy of Communist China. Figure 2 illustrates the geographical
distribution of China's mineral deposits as revealed in a recent Chinese
Communist publication. Figure 3 Snows the sector composition of GNP
and gross regional product. Figures 4 and 5 indicate the regional
distribution of manufacturing and agricultural production. Figure 6
depicts the regional distribution of GNP and population. Figure 7
shows major new railroad construction in China since 1949. Figure 8
locates the major Soviet-aid projects in China
Tables 2-6 follow on pp. 23-27.
See Appendix A.
Following p. 20.
Continued on p. 27.
-20 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
50X1
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
cFCRFT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Figure 3
COMMUNIST CHINA
Lau

U. S. R.
..1
1519
9\
48
72 54
?
_ .1 /
r-c
0.,..4:, 1
4.,,,
s-----1
J
i
1
//
mowcoLin r1
S / ---.
-,
kr 1
I II
133 032 899 '1/4. , _... __. .4
as
91
r
i!
!,
44'
.?
0 ??
OF
C..
IX
-113
-1 ....?
in eto ME
36
a ',pro
4?44.44 / /44--- -444111.111111?.
e
II?
2 76
53
?
4,
/ I
r
ip
II
I
?
r-
a
_
-
--
...)
I
L
\
1
il
I.,
c 0 I? s A
A s i
X
N-.
1
A ..1,..
?rn .---._ /
1 N D t
I A i C ,1.3? -/ 1/40:Al?r
J.,
? IL,. \c. ''?
802
9 I
r
',;
"%.
WI
tikb
6.92
7,81
V
7.56
..
"7
1
I
1
%
/
/
.1
rw
III
iii
v:
s e A
- '4.
4
4
I
5.83
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION
I
Al
m 0
OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 1952, 1954, AND 1957
0

(Bafions
?Servic
of 'Non
in 1952 pikes)
varsity
min.
:11
, .
11. - "
me,ca.o
AgnCultureMA
Manufacturing
III
"C`Ar%M.r?
V 1ETNA ,
BUR ...1 'IL
--...))
,,..0
sour 1, clii(1'''. .
1952
1954
1957
LAOS ci 45
' e?0437"tri*
1
? g? "
r """ MO
6 lop X0 Ho pp .r. arras,. ... \ 'sewn! iv A ? U S Cs........1
100 I20
25552 7-57
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
50X1
SECRET
Declassified in Part Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Figure 4
COMMUNIST CHINA
V?.....,
,----,--- '
V
6
_
, --* ......- ..-// -
-"--17-4-.0--_. -------I"- '''.t-/
4 jrl\
./
l
El

, ) I
I / moNcoLin
?-...., j I
..... ?. .1
13
236
r
1l11i
138
iii
ll
90
,f------'
05 06 09 r.......-* H
l. ....
?
JAno:
, IX
?...,...... 07 05 01
4.6 ?
36
768
-e--t -,
it....?._ ............
7 111.42 -
(36%,,It4 ?N
.4 4,88," / ito?-?.-
10 10
30 ? /
ii ni IH -..- i ,
Lt
a,
74 7
VP
.0
'7.7
,
6 A
36
r- tj
3
:4,..r....1 t
0
.18
1
....
?.
I
Iv
.-.
, cosA
EAs.
_1- ? x
i' 1.
ILA
lid
Jot s B A
LA
I,
e I. ?-, i
A
\ .... A
?-? 1
.41-?-.5-?,_,4 .-- c73/./717.-- d Si N 77 I A 1- Y ?
72
6,7
fr
65
7.5
5
66 . .
n
sr_iitks:?
DISTRIBUTION
OF MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION
1952, 1954. AND 1957
te I VII
? 1
C
IREGIONAL
43 ? ri? VI
1
I In parent of too ptexixtion)
_
---n47- .- sou
nil
'1; t coo,
al
Fin
I nAr-T
? cc, sort. cHINA $,A .
sv63.4V.....1.......41ETNAM
1952 19541957
LAOS narists
1 .
.a...745
.2
(I In"' " lksnin. A?re
0 LA> 400 6,_ ea,
egad, 1.0I0
cHAILANDI Iv Mr US town+,
' 4.0.47
108 180
25563 7-57
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
50X1
ettlICT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Figure 5
COMMUNIST CHINA
,.,
I
,,.,..,
s. it
I
4
.c....i, 7^-"..........".._
..
) 411
\
(1-k:,->SZ31.44.4 CI
I 0 .
.....4
Fr )
1 /
si ONGOLIA\ /
.111
ilk
____..?.... jr?..t, _. ....................c
6_, \
1.0 1.1 1.2
I2 Jr(
I
\ _ _ ?-? H
........--
,... .-- ? 1,7 2.0 2.0 11111
?,
23
II
i
23.8
4
OA
Of
jAr
) ix ? r1111-1
6
tra.?
,.. ?.,
r, t N..
Alia
14 ffitvo

i 7
52
es
y.... ,
Fui
IA
A
tf 'F
op;
0 6 1' Lc' W
A
6
r- ?
c
.,, Y J
I
L
0
15
s 5
153 153
.
I
0
t 1
s T
\
X
.1- ....,
7 \
i 15
c.....c.
163
15.2
113
I12.8
4.5
1 , A I :1'
link]
c
5 6 A
e I. .--. 1
????..,
.1...?! "'lc ;Hy.....L.,...5,--.. --f -ri ttN :1:11?1 r \
I N D
I
vii I'll
V
its
ii
..?
?
1
I,
r
ea
AA?
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION
I
re
111
Ast,
OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
1952, 1954, AND 1957
---
f
1111111
(In pncent
of
tot
_H
I production)
vr
vi
gugmA _,i VIETNAM
silw4.""??????-nortni.":"..4.11.s.14".
tal
A...
--
A
.
1952 1951 1951
cu., 'W 443010"$n
rim). L A 0 5
C K. KC /I'
r 0433IN 44N 4
OW
8 I 0 0 AO *00 .0, ??????14..
./THAILAN
103 120
25564 757
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
50X1
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Figure 6
COMMUNIST CHINA
?
u.
, ...???,-,_,
)
Ask..
s
aki,...60
,
41
l 11111101,11
......-- _
, r-ri i......._..._..--, (
\ A i
.....
i ) ---? ---.?
, Illr
i ' moNGOLIAil
/ _-. i i (-......r26j.0
-.._.. i I 124-123
/ \J .;
/ u1-
Ira...tr.-7 C _ _ _, ___ ?-?
..- --
C 03 09 09 II %.....
am m -1 '''' 2 , 14 IS 11
) in n
p
Ivor
Illk _
II
....S
ig2 1
,
F4...
J.,r.IS
6
IX
AI
si,..
Oin
??,...) p....- --...
a CI
1 5/ 13 rim"
In HH H IFFIP III It
10 0rd
1
"
VIC:1
17
F. F? "
,
7
r- e ?
'MI
1
:?38
0PO4
.,,
TJ
I
?...
\
closA
x
?,..
13.1
11.8 16t,...:JcbstssA
...1-
l
'4 1...
/ r7 ./-
D i, Conl-f 1 N D i AI
i
169
12.5
1
r 121
11.2
166
WI
I
10 1
ii 0
I
4-?..L..._.
ikir!kis ' i ..
1
I
VII
...
11
. a
?
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
II 6
.
AND POPULATION BY REGION
1952, 1954, AND 1957
-C?.
II.
Ma
vi
an pert ens of nobonoi
Population Blinn
coca's)
ti
rr.?./Nr". i
(-1 .4 \ ...,
11111101*
V241; 1
1952 1952 1951 1957
\?...ri
BUR 6.1nien--1 CIETNAN10.,
soVFO FEW"
'''
_7'5 L A 0 STh enItIrnsfs
GNP
'CO re ex
/1?'1 cuss
Tr?SA IN ./4
11:0 rd3 KO Se .emen
LUSO
-%'". 44.1...44 1... -4 1J, S. Ge.....a.,
ciTHAILAtiq
108 120
25565 7.57
SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
50X1
Declassified in
Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
COMMUNIST CHINA
RAILROADS-FEB. 1957
4.t?
:7140%
of3,44,4414
. T;N., -
0.4 -":_i
,-,._.... ?
,, ? :_.; 4o,
'?..44?4,
?...444,
s
N. ?
J
LINO s-,
.
-I
Ti7
'
N.- ?
I tA414
?n?.
I
U.
l'""?
k e,
J
? - -
WAN _BATOR
_ :44.46.1no
1/N
'N1 0N00LIA
?
?"-
'rani
Y0-mn,
flasa,?440
' ? , Ra-444,41G444.4a
t Ce"C4Airesire,"GPU INDIA ?;V:
! N tHeTA
A -4 NS m
1'
r44 ci
SELECTED RAILROADS
Existing before end of 1949
Completed since 1949
Under construction
Projected (approximate alignment)
0 100
d IOC 200 ^ 400 40r 44444On
"i"
"now
' re"
'1/4/
B U 1.1 A/1-4 j?y I E.
r
LAOS
OITHAILA ND}
Q
tr4c,Cro,.,
44.
-
1?441.4
Oas
0.4.444."
"
...? o?
1' t ,..." .r..
`S.isrowsni 44.
4
-,
/......4 irtl..
Oa. .'.. ...
trio,firpet:: : origit;',115:1:;r?
...
-tLHe,
as 4/
I G
11/41> 1'
r-
Han
84
sans urist?'),
.44
?" 'and
irsaisj,0,001?
47-
ow'
Yawns
.9
carl
Seinntadan/1
al ?
r ? r.
/HAINAN /
L ?
awl an. at ...man'?
taw acaraal U Gametal.
nos'
toraurss
01
Oat 12936.12 11?511
120
74
13683 1-55 (Snort?, Revillen. 257)
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
50X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 1
Production of Selected Commodities in Communist China, by Region 2.../
1936, 1952, and 1957
Percent of National Total
Region ,12J
Commodity
11
III
Iv
V
v1
vu
viii
1936
1952
1957
1936
1952
1957
1936
1952
1957
1936 1952
1957
1936 1952
1957
1936
1952
1957
1936
1952
1957
1936
1952
1957
1936
1952
1957
Electric power
(installed capacity)
33.1
38.4
42.0
0.2
1.5
1.4
21.2
23.5
22.7
33.3 20.9
16.4
4.9
4.7
4.4
6.5
5.7
4.5
0.7
3.9
5.0
0.1
1.2
2.9
0
0.2
0.7
Coal
34.5
39.0
40.7
0.5
1.3
1.0
49.2
45.0
45.2
4.1 5.0
5.1
4.9
2.4
2.2
0.7
0.5
0.4
5.0
3.0
1.8
0.9
3.0
2.8
0.2
o.8
0.8
Iron ore
41.3
63.0
49.8
0
0
o
21.1
20.3
25.0
15-7 2.0
1.7
18.4
8.o
16.7
1.1
5.0
5.1
2.3
1.7
1.7
0.1
o
o
o
o
0
Pig iron
79.5
51.1
72-3
o
o
0
12.1
34.2
16.7
1.8 1.2
4.1
4.5
1.7
0.7
0
0
0
3.5
10.1
5.0
o
o
o
o
1.7
1.2
Finished steel
84.4
65.4
69.6
o
o
o
o
11.7
14.0
15.6 7.2
4.4
o
5.2
2.6
o
0.2
0.1
0
9.8
9.0
0
0
0
0
0.5
0.3
Tungsten
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
o
81.7
80.o
80.0
15.7
17.5
17.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
o
o
o
o
o
o
Copper
0
93.8
71.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 0
4.0
o
o
o
o
o
4.0
100.0
6.2
20.6
o
o
o
o
o
o
Lead
0
80.o
80.o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
o
87.2
20.0
20.0
6.4
o
o
6.4
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
0
Tin
0
0
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
o
5.0
5.0
5.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
80.o
80.o
80.o
o
o
o
o
o
0
Cement
50.0
36.3
37.7
o
o
o
16.9
25.1
27.5
19.2 16.4
14.2
o
13.9
9.3
10.8
6.6
4.2
3.1
0.8
2.3
0
0.1
3.3
o
0.8
1.5
Crude oil
100.0
51.4
36.3
0
0
o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
45.9
50.9
o
2.7
12.8
Refined petroleum
100.0
63.8
56.2
0
0
0
0
0
o
o o
8.6
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
34.0
23.2
0
2.2
12.0
Sulfuric acid
87.o
48.o
46.0
o
o
o
2.0
4.0
13.0
7.0 11.0
18.0
0
o
o
3.0
34.0
18.o
1.0
3.0
5.0
o
o
o
o
o
0
Ammonium sulfate
100.0
80.0
77.0
0
0
0
0
0
1.0
0 15.0
6.0
0
0
0
0
5.0
15.0
0
o
1.0
o
o
o
o
o
0
Caustic soda
13.0
31.0
16.0
0
0
0
64.0
29.0
50.0
20.0 5.0
16.0
0
0
o
o
5.0
1.0
3.0
30.0
17.0
o
o
o
o
o
0
Cotton textiles
(location of spindle units)
3.1 Ej
8.5
7.7
o
o
o
21.6 s/
21.2
29.0
66.3 2/ 57.0
43.3
8.0 s/
5.7
7.0
o.4 s/
o.6
0.5
o
4.8
4.o
0.5 s/
1.9
8.1
0.1 s/
0.3
o.4
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
b. The regional structure of the Chinese Communist economy is discussed in I, above.
c. 1937.
- 21 -
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C -R-E-T
Table 2
Value of the Gross National Product of Communist China, by Region and by Sector of Origin a/
1952, 1954, and 1957
Million Yuan (1952 Prices)
Region
' Sector of Origin Year I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX Total
Manufacturing 1952 2,860 70 2,410 2,520 770 48o 730 310 50 10,200
1954 4,680 80 3,610 3,360 1,150 700 1,020 610 90 15,300
1957 7,100 90 4,960 4,050 1,370 850 1,350 840 190 20,8310
Agriculture 1952 3,760 510 6,900 4,68o 4,230 3,200 4,630 1,390 300 29,600
1954 3,780 590 6,700 4,510 3,780 3,480 41810 1,530 320 29,500
1957 3,800 68o 8,070 5,190 4,910 3,760 5,150 1,930 410 33,900
Services 1952 4,930 330 6,200 4,380 2,560 2,150 2,660 1,060 230 24,500
1954 6,730 46o 7,750 5,410 2,990 2,740 3,320 1,390 310 31,100
1957 8,260 570 9,620 6,490 3,910 3,200 3,860 1,800 390 38,100
Total 1952 11,550 910 15,510 11,580 7,560 5,830 8,020 2,760 580 64,300
1954 15,190 1,130 18,060 13,280 /i22 6,920 9,150 3,530 720 75,900
1957 19,160 1,3140 22,65o 15,730 10,190 7,810 101360 4,570 990 92,8400
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
- 23 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Table 3
Distribution of the Gross National Product of Communist China
by Region and by Sector of Origin 2/
1952, 1954, and 1957
Region
(Percent of Total Output)
Total Output
Sector of Origin
Year
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
Percent
Million Yuan
Manufacturing
1952
28.0
0.7
23.6
24.7
7.5
4.7
7.2
3.0
0.5
loo
10,200
1954
30.6
0.5
23.6
22.0
7.5
4.6
6.7
4.o
o.6
100
15,300
1957
34.1
0.4
23.8
19.5
6.6
4.1
6.5
4.o
0.9
loo
20,800
Agriculture
1952
12.7
1.7
23.3
15.8
14.3
10.8
15.6
4.7
1.0
100
29,600
1954
12.8
2.0
22.7
15.3
12.8
11.8
16.3
5.2
1.1
100
29,500
1957
11.2
2.0
23.8
15.3
14.5
11.1
15.2
5.7
1.2
100
33,900
Services
1952
20.1
1.3
25.3
17.9
10.4
8.8
10.9
4.3
0.9
100
24,500
1954
21.7
1.5
25.0
17.5
9.6
8.8
10.7
4.5
1.0
loo
31,100
1957
21.7
1.5
25.2
17.0
10.3
8.4
10.1
4.7
1.0
100
38,100
.Total
1952
17.9
1.4
24.1
18.0
11.8
9.1
12.5
4.3
0.9
loo
64,300
1954
20.0
1.5
23.8
17.5
10.4
9.1
12.1
4.7
0.9
loo
75,900
1957
20.6
1.4
24.4
17.0
11.0
8.4
11.2
4.9
1.1
100
92,800
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
- 24
-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Table 4
Sector Shares of the Gross National and Gross Regional Products
of Communist China
1952, 1954, and 1957
Sector of Origin
Year
Region
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
Total
Manufacturing
(Percent)
1952
24.8
7.7
15.5
21.8
10.2
8.2
9.1
11.2
8.6
15.9
1954
30.8
7.1
20.0
25.3
14.5
10.1
11.1
17.3
12.5
20.1
1957
37.1
6.7
21.9
25.7
13.4
10.9
13.0
18.4
19.2
22.4
Agriculture
(Percent)
1952
32.5
56.0
44.5
40.4
55.9
54.9
57.7
50.4
51.7
46.o
1954
24.9
52.2
37.1
34.0
47.7
50.3
52.6
43.3
44.4
38.9
1957
19.8
50.7
35.6
33.0
48.2
48.1
49.7
42.2
41.4
36.5
Services
(Percent)
1952
42.7
36.3
40.0
37.8
33.9
36.9
33.2
38.4
39.7
38.1
1954
44.3
40.7
42.9
40.7
37.8
39.6
36.3
39.4
43.1
41.o
1957
43.1
42.5
42.5
41.3
38.4
41.0
37.3
39.4
39.4
41.1
Value of product
(Million yuan)
1952
11,550
910
15,510
11,580
7,560
5,830
8,020
2,760
580
64,300
1954
15,190
1,130
18,060
13,280
7,920
6,92o
9,150
3,530
720
75,900
1957
19,160
1,340
22,650
15,730
10,190
7,810
10,360
4,570
990
92,800
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
- 25 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Table 5
Comparative Growth of the Gross National and Gross Regional Products
of Communist China, by Sector of Origin a/
1952, 1954, and 1957
1952 al00
Region
Sector of Origin Year I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX Total
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Services
Total
1952 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1954 164 114 150 133 149 146 140 197 180 150
1957 248 129 206 161 178 177 185 271 380 204
1952 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1954 101 116 97 96 89 109 104 110 107 100
1957 101 133 117 111 116 118 111 139 137 115
1952 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1954 137 139 125 124 117 127 125 131 135 127
1957 168 173 155 148 153 149 145 170 170 156
1952 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
1954 132 124 116 115 105 119 114 128 124 118
1957 166 147 146 136 135 134 129 166 171 144
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
-26-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 6
Per Capita Gross National and Gross Regional Products
of Communist China a/
1952, 1954, and 1957
1952
1954 1957
Region
Yuan
Percent
Yuan
Percent
(1952:100)
Yuan
Percent
(1952=100)
I
267
100
344
129
419
157
II
133
100
161
121
185
139
III
104
100
118
113
143
138
IV
116
100
130
112
149
128
V
98
100
101
103
125
128
VI
87
100
101
116
110
126
VII
82
100
92
112
101
123
VIII
91
100
114
125
143
157
IX
120
100
146
122
194
162
Total
China
111
100
129
116
152
137
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
located in various regions, provinces, or cities. Although less than
a third of the 156 Soviet-aid projects have been specifically labeled as
such by the Chinese Communists, there is substantial evidence to warrant
inclusion of the projects listed. In nearly all cases, the projects
are known to have received Soviet aid on a large scale, including
not only technical assistance but also sizable shipments of equipment
and materials. As only 121 projects are listed, 35 of the original
156 major Soviet-aid projects remain to be identified. Of the 35
projects, nearly half are believed to be military construction for
which no information is available.
IV. Regional Distribution of Production.
Three of the regions of Communist China dominate the national
economy, together producing about 60 percent of all commodities and
-27-
S-E-C -R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-2-C-R-E-T
services. As indicated by Table 3,* Northeast China (Region I) accounts
for 20 percent of the national total, principally on account of the
concentration of about one-half of the country's heavy industry,
transportation, and construction activity in this area. North China
(Region III) contributes almost 25 percent of the GNP, ranking first in
agriculture and second only to Northeast China in industry. As the
seat of the government, the military headquarters, and most of the
institutions of higher learning, this region also leads in the output
of services. East China (Region IV), as the center of light industrial
production. and an important agricultural region, is the third major
economic region in Communist China.
Central China (Region V) and Southwest China (Region VII) produce
nearly equal shares of GNP, each accounting for more than 10 percent
of the total. The economies of these regions are similar, con-
sisting for the most part of agricultural production together with some
modern industrial installations. The neighboring region of South China
(Region VI) is somewhat less productive because of its smaller population
and even lower level of industrial development. Northwest China (Region
VIII), the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region (Region II), and the
Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region (Region IX) contribute the least,
ranging from about 1 percent to 5 percent and bearing out the charac-
terization of these regions as backward, underdeveloped areas.
V. Trends in Gross Regional Product, 1953-57.
During the period of the First Five Year Plan, the regions showing
the most rapid rates of growth are Northeast China (Region I), North-
west China (Region VIII), and the Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region
(Region IX), where total output will rise by at least 66 percent
(Table 5**). In the same period, production of goods and services for
Communist China as a whole will increase only 44 percent. All the
regions which are developing at a rate above the national average --
Northeast China, the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region (Region II),
* P.214.) above.
3E* P.26,above.
-28-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
North China (Region III), Northwest China, and the Sinkiang Uighur
Autonomous Region -- are located in the northern half of China, roughly
that area north of the Yellow River. The regions in South China,
however) experience rates of growth below the national average, with
the least development in Southwest China (Region VII).
Thus the data indicate a noticeable shift northward in the
regional distribution of the economic activity of Communist China
during the First Five Year Plan period. This is seen most clearly in
the manufacturing sector and more specifically in the manufacturing
sector of Northeast China, which will increase its share of national
heavy industrial output from about 48 percent in 1952 to 52 percent in
1957. This reflects the decision of the Chinese Communists to assign
top priority for this period to intensive development of the
heavy industry base in Northeast China and North China, with over
70 percent of total industrial investment during 1953-55 allocated to
these two regions. 74/ In the regions south of the Yellow River,
rapid growth is prevented by the predominantly agricultural nature of
the economy and also by the declared policy of the Chinese Communists
(until 1956) to discourage further development of the light industrial
base in the coastal provinces of East China.
Even more striking changes will occur in the composition of the
gross regional products themselves. As shown in Table 4,* the relatively
industrialized regions (those where manufacturing contributes relatively
more to gross regional product than is the case for the entire country)
are Northeast China and East China (Region IV), with North China
approximating the national average. The remaining regions of China are
primarily agricultural in character. As would be expected, the relative
importance of the manufacturing and services sectors in the total output
will increase at the expense of agriculture in each region. Although in
absolute terms manufacturing will register the greatest development in
the original industrial regions of Northeast China and North China, the
most rapid growth of industrialization will take place in Northwest China
and in the Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region, with increases in excess of
170 and 280 percent, respectively, in the Plan period. In part a reflec-
tion of the underdeveloped industry of these regions in the prerevo-
lutionary period, this rapid growth also reveals the sizable investment
* 1.25, above.
-29-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
by the government in the petroleum and textile industries of these areas.
Despite the fact that the most rapid development of agricultural output
is also planned for Northwest China, it is clear that the Chinese
Communists are concentrating their efforts in this sector on the regions
south of the Yellow River, which are slated to produce about 60 percent
of the anticipated increase in grain production during the First Five
Year Plan.
VI. Regional Variations in Per Capita Production.
A comparison of the regional distribution of economic activity in
Communist China (Table 2*) with the regional distribution of population
(Table 7**) shows wide variations in per capita output as between regions.
The results of such a comparison are presented in Table 6.***
Interregional comparisons; at best, must be interpreted with caution
because they reflect a varying regional distribution of economic activities.
In the case of Communist China, the problem is complicated further by
the following considerations: (1) The price structure of China overvalues
industrial goods in comparison with agricultural products and thus tends
to overstate the product of the developed industrial regions of North-
east China (Region I), North China (Region III), and East China (Region
IV); (2) no allowance has been made in this report for regional variations
in prices; and (3) the accuracy of the data is further limited by consid-
erations of the samples employed in developing gross regional production.
For example, the omission of animal husbandry from the list of regional
indicators tends to understate the contributions of the Inner Mongolian
Autonomous Region (Region II); Northwest China (Region VIII), and the
Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region (Region IX), and the failure to include
such subtropical agricultural products as sugar and fruit has the same
effect on South China (Region VI). With these qualifications in mind, it
is possible to make the following observations on regional variations in
per capita production.
* P.23, above.
** See Appendix A.
XX P.27, above.
- 30 -
S -E -C -R -E -T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
-E -C -11-E -T
The high level of per capita production in Northeast China, more
than twice that of any other region, reflects the fact that this region
furnishes about 20 percent of China's GNP with less than 8 percent of
its population. Moreover, Northeast China will experience the
greatest absolute growth in per capita output during the First Five
Year Plan. A highly productive agriculture supplements the concen-
tration of manufacturing, transportation, and construction activity in
this region. Other regions which surpass the national average for
per capita output are the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region and the
Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region, both of which have farm output in-
dexes well above their population indexes. Both these regions will
enjoy sizable increases in per capita output by 1957, reaching levels
about 40 to 6o percent above that of 1952.
Although North China and East China each make major contributions
to national output, they also display the greatest density of popula-
tion, which reduces their per capita production to a level approximating
the national average. Per capita production in the predominantly
agricultural regions south of the Yellow River falls well below the
national average, a trend which will continue through 1957. Of these
regions, Southwest China (Region VII), which lacks both modern industry
and a modern transportation system, displays the lowest per capita
output of any region in China and will experience the least growth in
this respect during the period of the First Five Year Plan. Although
Northwest China also possesses a predominantly agricultural economy, it
shows a substantially higher per capita output figure because of its
meager population. Moreover, per capita output during the Plan period
will grow as rapidly here as in Northeast China, another index of the
rapid tempo of development in this inland area.
VII. Development of Coastal and Inland Areas.*
In the current period of transition in regional structures (from the
former administrative area structure to the system of economic regions
to be announced during the Second Five Year Plan), the Chinese Communists
have released considerable data on the existing and planned future distri-
bution of economic activities between the coastal and inland areas of
China. Whether to satisfy the requirements of military security or of
* For a definition of the coastal and inland areas of Ccamunist China,
see p.3, above.
-31-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
locating industry closer to sources of raw materials and fuel, it is
deemed necessary to correct the concentration of industry in the 7 pro-
vinces and 3 special municipalities situated along the coast, especially
in the province of Liaoning and the cities of Shanghai and Tientsin.
For example, coastal industry accounted for the following percentages
of major heavy and light industrial production in 1952: machine building,
80 percent; steel, 86 percent; coal, 48 percent; sulfuric acid, 99 percent;
cotton cloth, 88 percent; paper, 70 percent; flour, 64 percent; and salt,
77 percent. 75/
It was within this frame of reference that the following aims were
incorporated in the First Five Year Plan: (1) To locate in the interior
more than two-thirds of all major industrial construction projects to
be initiated in the Plan period; 76/ (2) to allocate more than 60 percent
of electric power generating capacity to be added during the Plan period
to inland provinces; 77/ and (3) to increase the output share of the
machine building industry located in the interior from 20 percent of
the national total in 1952 to 62 percent on completion of the new enter-
prises scheduled to start construction during the period of the First Five
Year Plan. 78/ In terms of actual investment in capital construction
during the first 3 years of the First Five Year Plan, only 45 percent
was allocated to the coastal area, with an even smaller proportion
(26 percent) of investment in new capital construction devoted to the
coastal provinces. 79/ It should be borne in mind, however, that by far
the largest part of investment in the interior to date has been directed
toward existing industrial bases in the inland provinces of Northeast
China (Region I) and North China (Region III) rather than to the con-
struction of new industrial bases in the backward areas of western
China. Thus in the 4-year period from 1952 through 1955, the Inner Mon-
golian Autonomous Region (Region II), the Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous
Region (Region IX), and Tibet (Region X) received less than 5 percent of
total capital construction investment, 80/ or little more than the amount
received by the city of Harbin in the inland province of Heilungkiang
in Northeast China. 81/
In terms of actual production, there has been a noticeable shift in
the respective shares of the coastal and inland areas in gross national
industrial production within a brief period of time. Whereas the coastal
provinces accounted for about 77 percent of the industrial output of
Communist China in 1949 82/ and 73 percent in 1952, 83/ the corresponding
figure for 1955 had dropped to 68 percent. 84/ Also, as a result of a
-32-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
conscious policy prohibiting new construction and restricting industrial
output, Shanghai's share of national industrial production fell from
over 23 percent oin 1952 to about 19 percent in 1955.*
There is evidence, however, that this trend in the distribution
of industrial production, if not new construction, has been brought to
a halt. Vice-Premier Li Fu-ch'un admitted to the Eighth Party Congress
of the Chinese Communist Party in 1956 that the State Planning Commission
had failed to pay adequate attention "to the full, rational utilization
of coastal industry." f2j In 1955, 64 percent of the industrial fixed
assets of China, many of which were operating at less than 50 percent of
capacity, were still located in the coastal provinces. In comparison
with the inland area, labor productivity in the coastal area in 1955
was more than 50 percent higher and the number of engineering and tech-
nical personnel 44 percent greater. 14/ Thus in a period of increasing
financial stringency and of increased demand for consumer goods, Chinese
Communist economic planners are apparently gaining a greater appreciation
of the value of existing industrial installations along the coast of
China.
VIII. Trends in Geographical Distribution of Economic Activity Through 1962.
A. Trends in Regional Planning.
In general, the proposals for China's Second Five Year Plan and
subsequent commentaries have expressed the same theory of regional develop-
ment as that revealed in the First Five Year Plan. Distribution of indus-
trial construction is to be governed by the same considerations of locating
industry close to raw materials and consumption areas, enhancing national
security, and raising living standards in backward areas. There has been
some change, however, in the methods and tempo of implementing these
general principles, with new emphasis placed on a' fuller utilization of
existing industrial bases in coastal areas as a necessary corollary
to large-scale construction in the interior. Moreover, the Second Five
Year Plan proposals discuss industrial construction plans within a new
framework of 10 geographical regions which parallels the structure of
economic regions adopted in this report.
The Second Five Year Plan proposals contain the following pro-
visions regarding the geographical distribution of industrial construc-
tion: (1) continued construction of industrial bases, centering around
* See Appendix B.
-33-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
the iron and steel industry, in Northeast China (Region I), the Inner
Mongolian Autonomous Region (Region II), and Central China (Region V);
(2) initiation of construction of new industrial bases, centering
around the iron and steel industry and hydroelectric stations in South-
west China (Region VII), Northwest China (Region VIII), and the area
around the San-men Gorge (located at the junction of Regions III, V, and
VIII); (3) continued construction of the petroleum and nonferrous metal
industries in the Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region (Region IX); (4) active
development of existing industrial bases in East China (Region IV);
(5) adequate development of industry in the regions of North China (Region
III) and South China (Region VI); and (6) preparatory work for the devel-
opment of industry in Tibet (Region X). iffj
B. Trends in the Development of Coastal and Inland Areas.
Continuing the trend unfolding during the First Five Year Plan
period, an increasingly greater proportion of capital investment will
flow into inland China during the Second Five Year Plan. This will
result in part from the accelerated construction of the new iron and
steel bases at Wu-han and Pao-t'ou and the initiation of large-scale
industrial construction in Southwest China and the Sinkiang Uighur
Autonomous Region.
On the other hand, as indicated in VII, above, the Chinese
Communists decided in 1956 to place greater emphasis on the development
of existing industrial bases in the coastal area. The example of
Shanghai demonstrates how this new emphasis on coastal industry will
continue during the Second Five Year Plan. In keeping with the
characterization of this city as the prime example of excessive con-
centration of industry in pre-Communist China, the rate of increase
scheduled for Shanghai's industry during the First Five Year Plan was
less than 70 percent,* compared with a national rate in excess of 90 per-
cent. During the Second Five Year Plan, however, the rate of develop-
ment of Shanghai's industry will equal the 100-percent rate of increase
planned for all of China. Of greater significance is the fact that
Shanghai's heavy industrial production will also increase at the same
tempo as that for China as a whole, achieving a rate of increase of
160 percent by 1962. 88/ With the aid of neW investments by the state,
Shanghai is now destined to become a heavy industrial base specializing
in the production of small-scale rolled steel, medium machinery, and
shipbuilding. 89/
* See Appendix B.
-34-
s-g-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
C IA-R D P79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
C. Trends in Regional Development.
Whereas the coastal and inland areas of Communist China are
aligned essentially along longitudinal lines from east to west, the
economic regions of China reflect the latitudinal relationship of
China's plains, mountains, and rivers. Four of China's economic
regions (Northeast China, North China, East China, and South China)
are represented in the coastal area, and for this reason there can be
no correlation between trends estimated within these different areal
systems. The discussion which follows is based upon projections of
1952-57 trends in regional production) taking into account data
announced by the Chinese Communists on expansion of production capacity
in specific areas during the Second Five Year Plan.
1. Agriculture.
The distribution of the agricultural output of Communist
China is expected to maintain the same relative stability during the
period of the Second Five Year Plan that it displayed during the First
Five Year Plan (see Table 8*). Central China and South China will
probably continue to augment their share of national production, since
the primary method of increasing output during the Second Five Year
Plan period is to raise yields in existing agricultural centers through
such means as application of fertilizer, expansion of irrigation, and
double cropping. 22/ New lands opened to cultivation by 1962 will not
add more than 5 percent to the existing area) 21/ and more than half of
this reclaimed land will be developed in the northern part of Heilungkiang
Province. 92/ Despite this concentration of activity in Northeast China,
this region should not increase its relative output) because of the
presence within its borders of Liaoning Province, where the concentration
of population and industry precludes significant expansion.
2. Heavy Industry.
The trend in the regional distribution of heavy industry
developed during the First Five Year Plan should continue well into
the Second Five Year Plan (see Table 9*). Specifically) Northeast
* See Appendix A.
- 35 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
China is expected to increase its share of total output until it
reaches a leveling-off point in 1961 or 1962. By that time, the new
iron and steel combines in the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region and
Central China and the reconstructed iron and steel combine in South-
west China will begin production and the large-scale hydroelectric
power station at the San-men Gorge will be nearing completion. By
1961 or 1962 also, new centers of heavy industry, long in the planning
and discussion stage) will be constructed in the inland cities of
Pao-t'ou (iron and steel) in the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region;
T'ai-yuan (steel) heavy machinery, and chemicals) in North China; in
Wu-han (iron and steel, motor vehicles, machine tools and shipbuilding)
and Lo-yang (tractors and mining equipment) in Central China; Chungking
(iron and steel) and Ch'eng-tu (machine tools) in Southwest China;
Lan-chou (petroleum refining and petroleum drilling equipment)
in Northwest China; and Urumchi (iron and steel and nonferrous metals)
in the Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region. In terms of key heavy in-
dustrial products, Northeast China will still possess about 40 percent
of the nation's electric power generating capacity in 1962, the same
as in 1957, but will account for only 50 percent of crude steel pro-
duction in 1962 as compared with 70 percent at the close of the First
Five Year Plan.
3. Light Industry.
The trend since 1952 in the regional distribution of light
industry should continue throughout the entire period of the Second Five
Year Plan. Although scarcity of data makes this trend largely a reflec-
tion of the distribution of cotton-spindle units added during the First
Five Year Plan period, cotton textiles account for about 40 percent of
total light industrial output 93/ and may be considered representative
of this industrial sector. As indicated by Table 10,* the marked shift
away from East China in light industry production is the result of the
construction of great new textile centers in the cotton-producing areas
of inland China, specifically in Peiping and Shih-chia-chuang in North
China, in Cheng-chou in Central China, and in Sian in Northwest China.
Projecting this trend, East China's share of light industry will
continue to diminish throughout the Second Five Year Plan period.
* See Appendix A.
-36-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
4. Transportation.
Railroads occupy a dominant position in the modern
transportation system of Communist China, accounting for more than
80 percent of all freight (measured in ton-kilometers) carried by
modern means of transport. 2L/ Efforts to rehabilitate and expand
the approximately 14,000 miles of railroad existing in 1949 have been
guided by both strategic and economic considerations (see Figure 7*).
New line construction has been directed toward the creation
of a national rail network connecting all of the regions and provinces
of Communist China, toward the construction of additional rail links with
the USSR, toward increasing Chinese Communist logistic capabilities
in the Taiwan Strait area, and toward making available to the national
economy the specialized raw materials of petroleum and nonferrous metals
located in the regions of Southwest China, Northwest China, and the
Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region. In the period from 1950 through
1957, approximately 4,000 miles of new lines will have been added to the
rail net, with rail access to Yu-men (China's largest oil producer) in
Kansu Province, completion of the Trans-Mongolian line to the USSR,
and the linking of the regions of Northwest China and Southwest China by
means of the Pao-ch'i Ch'eng-tu railroad representing major achieve-
ments. The appearance in 1956 of traffic congestion in the existing
industrial areas, however, prompted a slackening of the pace of new line
construction in 1957, with greater emphasis to be placed on improving
the freight-carrying capacity of the older lines. 22/ This development,
which parallels the trend toward greater utilization of existing
industrial bases in the coastal area, will extend into the Second Five
Year Plan) when a major program of rehabilitation of existing lines will
be undertaken. 2Y
At the same time, the proposal to build 5,000 to 5,600 miles
of new lines during the period of the Second Five Year Plan indicates
that preponderant emphasis will still be placed on new line construc-
tion. 22/ By 1962 the Chinese Communists will have incorporated all
of China's provinces (with the possible exception of Tibet) within the
rail network, will have extended branch lines to the rich oil deposits
in the Tsaidam and Karamai (Dzungaria) basins, and will have completed
the Trans-Sinkiang line as a fourth link with the USSR. By that time
* Following p. 20, above.
-37-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
also, Communist China plans to finish construction of a north-south
trunk system about 6o0 miles inland, extending from Outer Mongolia to
the Indochina border via Pao-t'oul Lan-choul Chleng-tu, and Klun-ming.
This new railroad axis will come into being at approximately the same
time that work is nearing completion oh the new inland industrial bases
of China centered about the large iron and steel combines at Pao-t'ou
and Wu-han.
D. Trends in Concentration of Industry.
An attempt to measure industrial concentration should take into
account the following criteria: (1) The extent of spatial separation
of production and consumption of a commodity or series of commodities;
(2) the extent of spatial separation of productive capacity for a
single commodity; and (3) the extent of spatial separation of productive
activity as a complex. 98/ In the discussion which follows, the latter
two criteria will be employed to estimate the degree of concentration
of heavy industry in Communist China, as this sector provides the best
index for judging the capability and/or vulnerability of a national or
regional economy.
Within the context of the regional structure, there will be a
noticeable increase in concentration of heavy industry during the First
Five Year Plan period. This will result from the priority development
of the existing base of heavy industry in Northeast China. With nearly
half of the key industrial construction projects receiving Soviet aid
(see Figure 8*) located within its borders, this region will increase
its share, in terms of value added, of the heavy industrial output
of China from 48 percent in 1952 to 52 percent in 1957. This increase
will result primarily from the expansion of ferrous metals, machine
building, and electric power production at a rate far above the na-
tional average. For example, moreithan 80 percent of the total in-
vestment in China's iron and steel industry was allocated to Northeast
China during 1953-55. 99/
Descending below the regional level, the First Five Year Plan
provides for a heavier concentration within the leading industrial com-
plex of Communist China, located within a radius of 45 miles in central
* Inside back cover.
-38-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Liaoning Province (Region I) and bounded by the cities of Mukden,
Fu-shun, Pen-ch'il and An-shan. Nearly 20 percent of the Soviet-
aid projects are concentrated in this small area, Which accounts for
all of China's production of aluminum, more than 65 percent of its
iron and steel, 60 percent of its refined petroleum, 50 percent of
its iron ore, 25 percent of its machine building, and a substantial
proportion of its coal.
Descending still further to the municipal level, the degree
of concentration of heavy industry in individual cities will also
increase during the First Five Year Plan period, specifically in the
cities of An-shan, Mukden, and Shanghai. Large investments under the
long-term Soviet-aid program in the ferrous metallurgy and machine-
building industries will account for the heavier concentration of
industrial output in An-shan and Mukden. The further development of
Shanghai into a base of heavy industry, to the point where it will
account for nearly 10 percent of the heavy industrial output of
Communist China in 19561* has been of more recent origin. Although
a few state-owned plants have been expanded gradually since 1950, it
was not until 1956 that the decision was made to accelerate the
development of Shanghai's heavy industry. 122/ Quick returns in
expanded output are anticipated from relatively small investments in
the amalgamation, renovation, and expansion of Shanghai's numerous
small-scale plante recently brought under state control in the form
of public-private jointly operated enterprises.
This trend toward greater concentration of heavy industry is
expected to persist until the latter part of the Second Five Year
Plan, when new inland industrial bases centered about large iron and
steel combines will came into being. Not until then will Chinese
Communist economic planners achieve visible results in their widely
publicized endeavor to effect a rational, balanced distribution of
industry throughout the territory of China.
* See Appendix B.
-39-
S -E -C -R -E -T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX A
STATISTICAL TABLES
Table 7
Population of Communist China, by Region Eli
1952, 1954, and 1957
Region
Year
1952
1954
1957
Million
Percent
Million
Percent
Million
Percent
I
43.2
7.5
44.1
7.5
45.7
7.5
II
6.9
1.2
7.0
1.2
7.3
1.2
III
149.8
26.0
153.1
26.0
158.7
26.0
IV
99.7
17.3
101.9
17.3
105.6
17.3
V
77.0
13.4
78.7
13.4
81.6
13.4
VI
66.8
11.6
68.3
11.6
70.8
11.6
VII
97.2
16.9
99.4
16.9
103.0
16.9
VIII
30.2
5.2
30.9
5.2
32.0
5.2
ix
4.8
0.8
4.9
0.8
5.1
0.8
Total hi
577.0
100
589.6
100
611.1
100
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
b. Total includes the 1.3-million population of Tibet (Region X). This
figure is 0.2 percent of the total population of Communist China.
-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Table 8
Total Farm Value of Grain and Cotton Produation in Communist China, by Region 21
1952, 1954, and 1957
Grain Cotton Regional Total
1952 1954 1957 1952 1954 1957 1952 1954 1957
Region
Million
Yuan Percent
Million
Yuan Percent
Million
Yuan Percent
Million
Yuan Percent
Million
Yuan Percent
Million
Yuan
Percent
Million
Yuan
Percent
Million
Yuan
Percent
Million
Yuan
Percent
I
2,558
13.0
2,555
13.2
2,701
11.6
72
7.1
34
3.8
47
3.7
2,630
12.7
2,589
12.8
2,748
11.2
II
354
1.8
406
2.1
489
2.1
0
0
0
0
0
0
354
1.7
4o6
2.0
489
2.0
III
4,328
22.0
4,103
21.2
5,147
22.1
496
49.2
497
55.9
708
55.9
4,824
23.3
4,600
22.7
5,855
23.8
IV
3,069
15.6
2,981
15.4
3,540
15.2
157
19.5
119
13.4
216
17.1
3,266
15.8
3,100
15.3
3,756
15.3
V
2,814
14.3
2,,5?,h A
12.7
3,423
14.7
139
13.8
121
13.6
132
10.4
2,953
14.3
2,579
12.7
3,555
14.5
VI
2,243
11.4
2,381
12.3
2,725
11.7
o
o
o
o
o
o
2,243
10.8
2,381
11.8
2,725
11.1
VII
3,207
16.3
3,276
16.9
3,680
15.8
34
3.4
34
3.8
49
3.9
3,241
15.7
3,305
16.3
3,729
15.2
VIII
905
4.6
987
5.1
1,327
5.7
6o
5.9
72
8.1
75
5.9
565
4.7
1,059
5.2
1,402
5.7
IX
197
1.0
213
1.1
256
1.1
Il
1.1
12
1.3
39
3.1
208
1.0
225
1.1
295
1.2
Total
19,675
100
19,355
loo
23,288
100
010
100
890
loo
265
loo
20,685
100
20,245
100
24,555
100
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
-42-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 9
Distribution of Major Heavy Industrial Production in Communist China, by Region 1/
1952, 1954, and 1957
Million Yuan (1952 Prices)
Value Added by Region
Total Value Added
/1
/II
iv
vx
VII
VIII
Ix
Heavy Industry 1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952 1954 1957
1952
1954 1957
1952
1954
1957
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
Iron and steel
_los_
Iron ore 17.0
24.0
49.3
0
0
0
5.5 9.0 24.8
0.5
0.5 1.7
2.2
4.9
16.5
1.3
1.9
5.0
0.5
0.7
1.7
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
41
99
Pig iron 45.0
84.4
? 143.1
o
o
o
30.1 33.9 33.1
1.0
8.4 8.1
1.5
1.5
1.4
0
o
o
8.9
10.2
9.9
o
o
o
1.5
1.6
2.4
88
140
198
Finished
steel 663.8
Tungsten 0
1,107.8
0 .
2,013.5
0
o
0
o
0
o
o
118.7 258.2 405.0
o o o
73.1
o
75.2 127.3
o o
52.6
20.8
52.3
24.8
75.2
31.2
t:(5)
t:f
:1
9g:;
132.4
0.8
260.4
1.0
o
o
o
o
o
o
5.1
o
6.5
o
8.7
o
1015
26
1,634
31
2,893
39
Subtotal 725.8
1,216.2
2,205.2'
0
0
0
15L3t. 321a. 462.9
74.6
84.1 1/7.1
11.1
111?3,2
ELI
/A
r2,2
14.7
109.6
144.1
273.0
o
o
o
6.6
8.1
11.1
1 1 6
1 846
3,229
Percentage 62.8
65.9
.68.3
0
0
0
' 13.3 16.3 14.3
6.5
4.6 4.2
6.7
4.5
3.8
0.7
0.5
0.5
9.5
7.8
8.5
o
o
o
o.6
0.4
0.3
100
100
100
Nonferrous
metals 33.3
53.5
50.3
o
o
o o o
o
1.7 1.5
16.4
24.2
25.4
10.3
15.6
17.3
4o.0
62.0
70.5
o
o
o
o
o
o
Ico
157
165
. Percentage 33.3
34.1
30.5
o
o
o
.0 o o
o
1.1 0.9
16.4
15.4
15.4
10.3
9.9
10.5
4o.o
39.5
42.7
o
o
o
o
o
o
100
loo
loo
Machinery . 257.1
478.0
606.5
1.2
2.3
2.9
79.1 147.0 186.6
205.8
382.6 485.5
31.5
58.6
74.4
18.6
34.5
43.8
17.3
32.2
40.8
6.2
11.5
14.6
1.2
2.3
2.9
618
1,149
1,458
Percentage 41.6
41.6
41.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
12.8 12.8 12.8
33.3
33.3 33.3
5.1
5.1
5.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
100
100
100
Armaments . 70.3
44.5
33.0
0
0
0
23.2 14.2 10.5
4.4
2.9 2.2
18.3
12.4
9.2
1.5
1.1
0.8
29.4
20.0
14.8
2.9
1.9
1.5
0
0
0
150
97
72
Percentage *6.9
45.9
45.8
0
0
15.5 14.6 14.6
2.9
3.0 3.1
12.2
12.8
12.8
1.0
1.1
1.1
19.6
20.6
20.6
1.9
2.0
2.1
0
0
0
100
100
100
Coal 306.5.
402:0
569.4
10.2
9.9
14.0
353.7 448.5 632.3
39.3
49.5 71.3
18.9
20.8
30.8
3.9
4.0
5.6
23.6
24.7
25.2
23.6
23.7
39.2
6.3
6.9
11.2
786
990
1,399
Percentage 39.0
40.6
4o.7
1.3
1.0
1.0
45.0 45.3 45.2
5.0
5.0 5.1
2.4
2.1
2.2
0.5
0.4
0.4
3.0
2.5
1.8
3.0
2.4
2.8
0.8
0.7
o.8
100
100
100
Electric
power 272.6
384.9
700.6
10.6
11.6
23.3
166.8 193.8 378.6
148.4
165.2 273.5
33.4
42.8
73.4
4o.5
40.2
75.1
27.8
33.9
83.4
8.5
17.0
48.4
1.4
3.6
11.7
710
893
1,668
Percentage 38.4
43.1
42.0
1.5
1.3,
1.4
23.5 21.7 22.7
20.9
18.5 16.4
4.7
4.8
4.4
5.7
4.5
4.5
3.9
3.8
5.0
1.2
1.9
2.9
0.2
0.4
0.7
100
100
100
Chemicals 47.4
72.4
117.7
0
0
0
12.1 26.3 36.9
5.9
11.8 16.6
0.5
0.9
1.0
3.8
8.5
10.4
6.3
7.1
10.4
o
o
o
o
o
0
76
127
193
Percentage 62.4
57.0
61.o
o
o
o
15.9 20.7 19.1
7.8
9.3 8.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
5.0
6.7
5.4
8.2
5.6
5.4
0
o
o
o
o
o
loo
100
100
Cement 35.6
65.6
76.5
0
0
0
24.6 38.7 55.8
16.1
21.9 28.8
13.6
18.2
18.9
6.4
9.2
8.5
o.8
3.0
4.7
0.1
0.1
6.7
o.8
1.3
3.1
96
158
203
Percentage 36.9
41.5
37.7
o
o
o
25.1 24.5 27.5
16.4
13.9 14.2
13.9
U.S
9.3
6.6
5.8
4.2
0.8
1.9
2.3
0.1
0.1
3.3
0.8
o.8
1.5
100
100
100
Petroleum 126.7
186.7
276.5
0
0
0
0 0 0
0
0 36.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
73.6
132.4
152.6
4.7
10.9
64.5
205
330
530
Percentage 61.8
56.6
52.1
0
0
0
0 0 0
0
0 6.9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
35.9
40.1
26.8
2.3
3.3
12.2
100
100
100
Total 1,875.1
2,903.8
4,636.4
22.0
23,8
40.2
813.8 1,169.6 1,763.6
494.5
719.7 1,052.9
209.9
261.4
32.1i
92.8
122.0
176.2
254.8
327.0
522.8
114.9
186.6
261.0
21.0
33,1
i24.5
2)&22
5,747
8,917
Percentage of
national tOtal 48.1
50.5
52.0
0.6
0.4
0.5
20.9 20.4 19.8
12.7
12.5 11.8
5.4
4.5
4.0
2.4
2.1
2.0
6.5
5.7
5.9
2.9
3.2
2.9
0.5
o.6
1.2
100
100
100
a. Per methodology, see Appendix B.
- 43 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part :Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 10
Distribution of Selected Light Industrial Production in Communist China, by Region 2../
1952, 1954, and 1957
Million Yuan (1952 Prices)
Light Industry
Value Added, by Region
Total Value Added
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952 1954 1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
Cotton textiles
(location of
spindle units)
101.2
125.4
126.4
0
0
o
252.3
350.5
476.2
678.3 746.4 711.0
67.8
120.9
114.9
7.1
9.1
8.2
57.1
63.5
65.7
22.6
92.2
133.0
3.6
3.0
6.6
1,190
1,511
1,642
Percentage
8.5
8.3
7.7
o
o
0
21.2
23.2
29.0
57.0 49.4 43.3
5.7
8.o
7.0
o.6
0.6
o.5
4.8
4.2
4.0
1.9
6.1
8.1
0.3
0.2
o.4
loo
loo ?
100
Salt
24.1
28.7
36.6
0
0
o
46.2
54.9
70.1
17.8 21.1 26.9
0.3
0.4
0.5
10.5
12.4
15.8
11.8
14.1
18.0
3.7
4.4
5.6
1.6
2.0
2.5
116
138
176
Percentage
20.8
20.8
20.8
0
0
0
39.8
39.8
39.8
15.3 15.3 15.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
9.0
9.0
9.0
10.2
10.2
10.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
1.4
1.4
1.4
100
100
100
Paper
129.5
192.9
228.0
o
o
o
27.5
41.0
48.4
56.6 84.3 99.6
o
o
o
11.2
16.7
19.7
7.0
10.4
12.3
1.2
1.7
2.0
o
o
o
233
347
410
Percentage
55.6
55.6
55.6
o
o
o
11.8
11.8
11.8
24.3 24.3 24.3
o
o
o
4.8
4.8
4.8
3.0
3.0
3.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
o
o
o
loo
Ico
100
Cigarettes
19.6
28.1
34.7
2.2
3.1
3.9
54.5
78.0
96.5
82.8 118.6 146.7
32.7
46.8
57.9
13.1
18.7
23.1
10.9
15.6
19.3
2.2
3.1
3.9
o
o
o
218
312
386
Percentage
9.0
9.0
9.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
38.0 38.0 38.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
6.o
6.o
6.o
5.0
5.0
5.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
o
o
o
loo
100
100
Flour
4.8
5.9
7.5
o.4
0.5
o.6
20.4
25.5
32.0
31.6 39.4 49.5
4.6
5.8
7.2
0.9
1.1
1.4
1.9
2.3
2.9
4.1
5.2
6.5
0.3
0.3
o.4
69
86
108
Percentage
6.9
6.9
6.9
o.6
o.6
o.6
29.6
29.7
29.6
45.8 45.8 45.8
6.7
6.7
6.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
2.7
2.7
2.7
6.o
6.o
6.o
0.4
0.3
0.4
100
100
1010
Vegetable
oils
11.1
15.2
20.2
o
o
o
6.8
9.3
12.4
9.4 12.7 16.9
2.9
3.9
5.2
0.7
1.0
1.3
3.6
4.9
6.5
1.1
1.5
1.9
0.4
0.5
o.6
36
49
65
Percentage
30.8
31.0
31.0
0
o
o
18.8
19.0
19.1
26.1 25.9 26.0
8.1
8.o
8.o
1.9
2.0
2.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
3.1
3.1
2.9
1.1
1.0
0.9
100
100
100
Rice and grain
processing
32.6
39.2
41.0
1.6
2.0
2.1
40.3
48.4
5o.6
41.6 50.0 52.3
12.1
14.5
15.2
14.5
17.4
18.2
13.5
16.2
17.0
5.7
6.9
7.2
1.1
1.4
1.4
163
196
205
Percentage
20.0
20.0
20.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
24.7
24.7
24.7
25.5 25.5 25.5
7.4
7.4
7.4
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.3
8.3
8.3
3.5
3.5
3.5
0.7
0.7
0.7
loo
100
100
Rubber goods
23.8
43.0
76.8
0
o
o
92.0
124.6
153.6
48.2 57.4 61.6
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
164
225
292
Percentage
14.5
19.1
26.3
o
o
o
56.1
55.4
52.6
29.4 25.5 21.1
0
0
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
100
100
100
Total
.37
478.4
571.2
4.2
5A
6.6
540.0
732.2
939.8
...._3 1,129.9 1,164.5
120.4
192.3
200.9
58.0
76.4
87.7
105.8
127.0
141.7
40.6
115.0
160.1
12
/2
11.5
2,189
2 864
1,21324
Percentage of
national. total
15.8
16.7
17.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
24.7
25.6
28.6
44.1 39.4 35.5
5.5
6.7
6.1
2.6
2.7
2.7
4.8
4.4
4.3
1.9
4.o
4.9
0.3
0.3
o.4
loo
100
loo
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
- 45 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 11
Distribution of Services in Communist China, by Region 2./
1952, 1954, and 1957
Value Added, by Region
Million Yuan (1952 Prices)
i
Ix
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
Total Value Added
Services
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954?
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
1952
1954
1957
Modern
transportation
485
779
1,042
5
8
16
232
375
520
68
107
159
53
83
136
58
91
149
45
71
129
47
75
3.17
7
11
.32
1,000
1,600
2,300
Percentage
48.5
48.7
45.3
0.5
0.5
0.7
23.2
23.4
22.6
6.8
6.7
6.9
5.3
5.2
5.9
5.8
5.7
6.5
4.5
4.4
5.6
4.7
4.7
5.1
0.7
0.7
1.4
loo
Lao
loo
Native
transportation
Percentage
Communications
Percentage
CohstructiOn
152
12.7
ho
20.0
1,162
179
12.8
6o
20.0
1,848
168
11.2
8o
20.0
2,587
20
1.7
2
1.0
46
28
2.0
3
1.0
74
30
2.0
4
1.0
103
280
23.3
54
27.0
431
318
22.7
81
27.0
686
357
23.8
108
27.0
961
190
15.8
58
29.0
93
214
15.3
87
29.0
147
230
15.3
116
29.0
206
172
14.3
12
6.o
198
179
12.8
18
6.o
315
218
14.5
24
6.o
441
130
10.8
20
10.0
22
165
11.8
30
10.0
35
166
11.1
40
10.0
49
188
15-7
6
3.0
79
228
16.3
9
3.0
126
228
15.2
12
3.0
176
56
4.7
6
3.0
123
73
5.2
9
3.0
196
85
5.7
12
3.0
274
12
1.0
2
1.0
46
16
1.1
3
1.0
73
18
1.2
4
1.0
103
1,200
100
200
100
2,200
1,400
100
300
loo
3,500
1,500
100
400
loo
4,900
Percentage
52.8
52.8
52.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
19.6
19.6
19.6
4.2
4.2
4.2
9.0
9.0
9.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
3.6
3.6
3.6
5.6
5.6
5.6
2.1
2.1
2.1
100
100
100
Trade and
business services
1,336
1,776
2,159
117
178
229
2,008
2,620
3,475
1,688
2,198
2,846
949
1,154
1,630
84o
1,165
1,430
1,042
1,421
1,730
353
488
687
67
100
23.4
8,400
11,100
14,300
Percentage
15.9
16.0
15.1
1.4
1.6
1.6
23.9
23.6
24.3
20.1
19.8
19.9
11.3
10.4
11.4
10.0
10.5
10.0
12.4
12.8
12.1
4.2
4.4
4.8
o.8
0.9
o.8
100
No
100
Government and
military services
379
429
454
33
36
38
1,213
1,366
1,622
539
583
641
327
344
388
284
298
336
362
371
427
141
150
168
22
23
26
3,300
3,600
4,100
Percentage
U.S
11.9
11.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
36.8
38.0
39.6
16.3
16.2
15.6
9.9
9.6
9.5
8.6
8.3
8.2
11.0
10.3
io.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
0.7
o.6
o.6
loo
loo
100
Rent and
miscellaneous
services
1,380
1,660
1,770
110
130
150
1,980
2,300
2,580
1,740
2,080
2,290
850
900
1,070
800
960
1,030
940
1,090
1,16o
330
400
hso
70
8o
90
8,200
9,600
10,600
Percentage
16.8
17.3
16.7
1.3
1.4
1.4
24.1
24.0
24.3
21.2
21.7
21.6
10.4
9.4
10.1
9.8
10.0
9.7
11.5
11.4
10.9
4.o
4.2
4.3
0.9
o.8
o.8
lop
lop
loo
Total
4,934 '
6,731
8 260
331
ill
2/2
6,198
7,746
9,623
4,376
5 416
6 488
2 561
2,993
3.1.2Z(
2,154
2 744
3,200
2 662
3,316
3 862
1,056
1,391
1,803
226
3.2?
21
24,500
31,1oo
38,100
Percentage of
national. total
20.1
21.6
21.7
1.4
1.5
1.5
25.3
24.9
25.3
17.9
17.4
17.0
10.5
9.6
10.3
8.8
8.8
8.4
10.9
10.7
10.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
0.9
1.0
1.0
loo
100
100
a. For methodology, see Appendix B.
- 147 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
APPENDIX B
METHODCLOGY
I. General.
The estimates of gross regional product presented in this report are
based on estimates of GNP and its components for all of Communist China.
As such) they represent net measures of the total volume of goods and
services produced within each region -- that is, the gross value of the
output of the regional economies less purchases of materials, fuels, and
power used in the production process. The regional data consist essen-
tially of estimates for the years 1952) 1954, and 1957 of the total
physical output of a long list of commodities: together with the percen-
tage of the total produced in each region. The regional shares were
applied to the national estimates of value added in the production of
each commodity: and the sum of these values was considered to be a repre-
sentative sample of the regional output of the major industrial sectors
producing physical goods. These samples were then inflated to full
coverage by applying them to the national value-added estimates for the
respective major industrial sectors, the results being combined with
estimates of the value added by the services sector to yield a measure of
total regional production.
In general, the measurement of gross regional product involves com-
plexities above and beyond the problems encountered in measuring GNP.
Much of the additional difficulty arises from the fact that regional data
are always more scarce and less reliable than corresponding figures for
the whole country. The data on regional commodity production, which
provide the foundation for the estimates of gross regional product, are
based largely on plant studies or plan analysis, with a sizable margin of
error in some cases. In other cases, it was necessary to resort to prewar
data in order to obtain regional or provincial shares of production,
assuming there had been no significant change in the intervening years in
the distribution of output. The regional distribution of a number of the
service industries is based on the assumption of certain functional re-
lationships. For example, it is assumed that the regional volume of
native transportation is a function of agricultural production; conse-
quently, value added in the native transport sector is distributed
according to the regional index of agricultural output. Finally, the
accuracy of the findings of this report is further limited by the
inadequacy of certain of the samples employed in developing gross regional
- 119 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
CIA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
production. For example, the omission of animal husbandry from
the list of regional indicators tends to understate the contributions
of the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region, Northwest China, and the
Sinkiang Uighur Autonomous Region. The failure to include such sub-
tropical agricultural products as sugar and fruit has the same effect
on South China.
II. Methodology for Tables 1-11.
In Table 1 the distribution of commodity production in 1936
is based on a number of individual industry studies published by the
Chinese Nationalist government, by various departments of the US Govern-
ment, and by private trade associations in pre-Communist China. Re-
gional distribution of output in 1952 and 1957 is based in most cases
on studies of individual plants and on plan analysis.
Table 2 was prepared by applying the regional coefficients for
the major sectors of the economy (presented in Tables 9-11) to the
national value-added estimates for the respective major economic
sectors. Manufacturing includes the production of energy, metals and
metal products, chemicals, construction materials, food products,
manufactured consumer goods, and military end items. Agriculture in-
cludes the production of foodstuffs and cotton. Services include trans-
portation, communications, construction, trade, government and military
services, and miscellaneous services and rent. The totals for services
have been rounded.
Tables 3, 4, and 5 are derived from Table 2.
Table 6 is derived from Tables 2 and 7.
Table 7 consists of midyear estimates for mainland China only
and is based on the announced results of the 1953 census, assuming
a 1-percent increase in 1953 over 1952 and an annual increase of
1.2 percent for 1954 through 1957. It is assumed that the regional
distribution of population remains constant for the years in question.
-50-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26 :
IA-R DP79 R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
Table 9 presents a sample of the regional output of major
heavy industrial production and is based for the most part on phys-
ical production data derived from plant studies and plan analysis.
The regional distribution of the machinery and armaments sectors,
however, is based largely on labor force data. Coal production is
distributed according to the prewar shares of the various provinces
of China.
Of the regional coefficients of light industrial production pre-
sented in Table 9, only those for cotton textiles and rubber goods
are based on information released by the Chinese Communists. Most
of the other sector estimates are based on prewar plant capacity
data. The value added by the rice and grain processing sector was
distributed on the basis of urban population.
Table 10 is based on provincial crop reports for grain and
cotton in the years 1952 and 1954 and on provincial production goals
for these crops in 1957.
In Table 11 the regional data on services are less reliable than
the physical production data used in distributing the manufacturing
and agricultural sectors in Tables 8-10. Modern transportation
includes data on railroads (distribution of locomotives), on waterways
(distribution of ton-kilometers originating), and public roads (distri-
bution of road kilometrage). The communications sector is distributed
on the basis of telephone conversations in the prewar period, and
the construction sector according to the regional distribution of
major Soviet-aid projects. It was necessary to assume certain functional
relationships in order to obtain regional allocations for the remaining
sectors. Thus native transport was distributed on the basis of
agricultural output; trade and business services, together with rent
and miscellaneous services, on the basis of urban population in urban
areas and of agricultural output in rural areas; military services on
the disposition of Chinese Communist military forces; and the local
share of government services on the basis of total population.
III. Estimates of the Industrial Production of Shanghai.
The share of 23 percent of national industrial production in 1952
credited to Shanghai was derived as follows; In that year, Shanghai
and Tientsin together accounted for about 30 percent of the industrial
-51-
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
S-E-C-R-E-T
output of Communist China. 101/ According to a Chinese Communist
announcement, Tientsin's industrial production in 1956 amounted to
about 3.4 billion yuan, representing an increase of 25 percent over
1955. 102/ The 1955 production figure for Tientsin has been
expressed elsewhere as a percentage increase over 1952. 103/ Given
Tientsin's output as approximately 7 percent of the national total
in 1952, Shanghai's production in that year is equivalent to the
differential between this figure and the 30-percent figure given
above. Shanghai's total industrial output iri 1955 has been an-
nounced by the Chinese Communists in the form of a percentage in-
crease over 1952. 104/
Shanghai's share of approximately 10 percent Of China's heavy
industrial production in 1956 was derived as follows: The value of
Shanghai's total industrial production in 1949 was secured first by
means of a Chinese Communist index relating it to 1952 production. 105/
Then the value of heavy industrial production in Shanghai in 1949,
expressed as a proportion of that city's total industrial production,
was related to 1956 heavy industrial output, again using a Chinese
Communist index. 106/ This figure was then divided by the estimate of
the total heaVy industrial production in China in 1956 to secure the
10-percent ratio.
The industrial production target of Shanghai in the First Five
Year Plan was estimated as follows: Heavy industrial production in
1956, derived in the preceding paragraph, was to account for 27 per-
cent of Shanghai's planned total industrial output in that year. 107/
Given the value of planned total industrial production for 1956, the
Chinese Communists have stated that this figure was equivalent to the
original 1957 industrial production target for Shanghai in the First
Five Year Plan. 108/
The share of 20 percent of national industrial production
attributed to Shanghai in 1956 was estimated as follows: Given the
value of planned industrial output for 1956, as derived in the pre-
ceding paragraph, the Chinese Communists have announced that actual pro-
duction would exceed the Plan figure by 10 percent. 109/ Given the
actual output total for 1956 and applying this total to the announced
total for China as a whole, the resulting share proportion is about
20 percent.
- 52 -
S-E-C-R-E-T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
50X1
I
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
.40
Next 6 Page(s) In Document Denied
e
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/08/26: CIA-RDP79R01141A000900040002-5
REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOVIET AID PROJECTS
(Tentative)
L NORTHEAST CHINA
LIAONING PROVINCE
1. Fu-shun Thermal Power Plant
2. Dairen No. 2 Thermal Power Plant
3. Fou-hsin Thermal Power Plant
4. An-shan Thermal Power Plant
5. Pen-ch'i Thermal Power Plant
6. lisin-ch'iu Coal Mine (Fou-lisin)
7. Hal-chou Coal Mine (Fou-hsin)
8. Ping-an Coal Mine (Fou-hsin)
9. Fu-shun Coal Mine
10. Liao-ytian Coal Mine
11. Tsai-tun Coal Mine. (Pen-chi)
12. Hsi-an Coal Mine
13. Pen-ch'i Coal Washing Plant
14. Pen-chl. Iron and Steel Company
15. An-shan No. 2 Open-Hearth Shop
16. An-shan No. 3 Open-Hearth Shop
17. An-shan No. 5 Blast Furnace
18. An-shan No. 6 Blast Furnace
19. An-shan No. 7 Blast Furnace
20. An-shan No. 8 Blast Furnace
21. .An-shan No. 9 Blast Furnace
22. An-shan Seamless Steel Tube Mill
23. An-shan Thin Plate Mill
24. An-shun Rolling Mill
25. An-shan Heavy Rolling Mill
26. An-shan No. 2 Blooming Mill
27. Fu-shun Aluminum Plant
28. Fu-shun'Mining Machinery and Electrical Equipment Plant
29. Mukden No. 1 Machine Tool Plant
30. Mukden Cable and Wire Works
31. Mukden Mining Machinery Works
32. Mukden Low-Voltage Switch Works
33. Mukden Heavy Machinery Plant
34. Mukden Pneumatic Tool Plant
35. Northeast Pharmaceutical Plant (Mukden)
36. Dairen Chemical Combine
HEILUNGKIANG PROVINCE
37. Harbin No. 4 Thermal Power Plant
38. Fu-la-erh-chi Heat and Power Plant
39. lising-an-tai Coal Mine (Hao-kang)
40. Tung-shan Coal Mine (Hao-kang)
41. Hsiao-heng-shan Coal Mine (Chl-hsi)
42. Shuang-ya-shan Coal Washing Plant
43. Fu-la-erh-chi Metallurgy Machinery Plant
44. Harbin Measuring and Cutting Tool Plant
45. Harbin Electric Meter and Instrument Plant
46. Harbin Steamship Motor Plant
47. Harbin Ball Bearing Plant
48. Harbin Boiler Plant
49. Harbin Steam Turbine Plant
50. Tsitsihar No. 1 Machine Tool Plant (Ch'i-chl-ha-erh)
51. Harbin Linen Mill
52. A-ch'eng Flax Mill
53. Hu-lan Flax Mill
54. Chia-mu-ssu Paper Plant
KIRIN PROVINCE
. Feng-man Hydroelectric Power Plant (Ta-feng-man)
56. Kirin Heat and Power Plant
57. Power Plant at Chang-ch'un No. 1 Motor Vehicle Plant
58. Kirin Ferroalloy Plant
59. Chang-ch'un No. 1 Motor Vehicle Plant
60. Chang-ch'un Railroad Equipment Plant
61. Kirin Electrode Plant
62. Kirin Fertilizer Plant
63. Kirin Calcium Carbide Plant
II. INNER MONGOLIAN AUTONOMOUS REGION
1. Pao-t'ou Thermal Power Plant
2. Pao-t'ou Iron and Steel Combine
III. NORTH CHINA
SHANSI PROVINCE
1. Tal-yilan No. 1 Thermal Power Plant
2. Tal-yilan No. 5 Heat and Power Plant
3. Ta-t'ung Coal Mine
4. I-tang Coal Mine
5. Tal-yilan Heavy Machine Plant
6. Yu-tz'u Ching-wei Textile Equipment Plant
7. Ta-tang Mining Machinery and Repair Plant
8. Ta-t'ung Locomotive and Rolling Stock Plant
9. Tai-yilan Chemical Plant
HOPEH PROVINCE
10. Shih-chia-chuang Thermal Power Plant
11. Feng-feng Coal Mine
12. K'ai-luan Coal Mine
13. Ma-chia-kou Coal Mine
14. Feng-feng Coal Dressing Plant
15. Peking No. 2 Machine Tool Plant
16. Pelting Electronic Tube Plant
17. Peking Pharmaceutical Plant
18. Shih-chia-chuang Chemical Plant
HONAN PROVINCE
19. Cheng-chou Heat and Power Plant
20. San-men Gorge Hydroelectric Power Plant
21. Ta-ma-ts'un Coal Mine (Chiao-tso)
22. P'ing-ting-shan Coal Mine
23. P'ing-ting-shan Coal Washing Plant
24. Lo-yang Tractor Plant
25. Lo-yang Mining Equipment Plant
26. Lo-yang Ball Bearing Plant
SHANTUNG PROVINCE - none
IV. EAST CHINA
KIANGSU PROVINCE
1. Shanghai Steam Turbine Plant
2. Kiang-nan Shipyard (Shanghai)
3. Hu-tung Shipyard (ShanghM)
ANHWEI PROVINCE
4. Hsieh-chia-chi Coal Mine (Huai-nan)
CHEKIANG PROVINCE- none
V. CENTRAL CHINA
HUPEH PROVINCE
1. Wu-han Heat and Power Plant
2. Wu-han Iron and Steel Combine
3. Wu-han Motor Vehicle Plant
4. Internal Combustion Engine Plant (Probably Wu-han)
5. Wu-han Heavy Machine Tool Plant
6. Wu-ch'ang Shipyard (Wu-han)
HUNAN PROVINCE
7. Hsiang-tan Lathe Plant
8. Hslang-tan Electric Works
9. Hsiang-tan Electric Wire Plant
KIANGSI PROVINCE
10. Ping-hsiang Coal Mine
VI. SOUTH CHINA
FUKIEN PROVINCE - none
KWANGTTJNG PROVINCE - none
', y E 6\-? 1
0 ->,,,, ,,nn chkang
'.1hiao-tso A,' lell-"' . ? '.,
'..!1 ._;.n.yun,
. 21 C.
?
?c'
....
,:.
ef2.3
fl
v
?s N.,
.,'
"7' 0
.
0 p,
? V I E
4/5 , sh
Yenisey
.. .1
'6.bsan
\
? r ........)
.4.4 4.-1.
-/-2",4?8.6, ?Sharasume
(A-10-t'a0
(1../..,.
...,Q ram .
?
\..
/ 3 1.
w
i?-.. ?
? /
4. (
i `x..,
4,94,:fit \ .---..........
, ? 1 lit 1 0 2 ---,,,
,..-.???a r-------- \..
C ? Wu m chi e
?) ???.--4
.
SINK
7'ar,? //4 NG
a
V GilLf R
0 Li -
'? REGION
/
khot ._
------ ? ? ',.".?,citieatc.)
-)
Ka-erh-mu '
I (Golmo)
T SOCIALIST
11.-.
1/4.1*.s.,
7. X ... .
\ f??
/
s
0
,.
LAKE ItEp tj 0L1C S
BAIKAL
?
. " .. ,
oc.......
O
MONGOL'
\
\
- ...-- --- ..?
A
?
/ --?...-. .--
\
/
I
/1
__ .-._. -- , i, G
0
K AN
NOh-. KLmonek-
.?-(-L-.?a oY-.c omn\
_ \
Ni
'aot.o.r ....?
12,
iI
0
Hsi-ning
../
,,,t4 0 ij-ho-hao.t.'e
IP Pao-tau (Kuei-sui)
SU 42 xi go, - - - a-t'upg
r71841*-,a7i,..y
. 11,
$
10-tzL
<
N.
)
n-chcou 1
T s I N
? artok uhdo r P,em.,,, to,
,y
\ .
5.1 ../..
\
HA I
S Z
,.:.
6 - i?. rt
s----- 7-pungrch,uan , , 20 ,
1 - - *2
,..- ? ?
Lo-yang
Ileng-chou \ ...._
caleng-hsien) (such() ,
*22\23 --,z,...., --1 CiSkj
A '' .1-160-cliang r.
,,\ `,?. i A \\ ; 1: ? ( . 1A1
4 1-1"a' ca-ro-s"
cv.?en-c?r"a ? .1.,..___?cutig
ua el m slink
Nank.10

1,
.0 . . / -40 y ?
rat
E 143.5 , ... 1
.-Naqeh Bo-fel
Ps. 4 e
--.,9r.=
Sd. po.ong
H.
Tung ring H. t ,
Nan-ch'ang hoW .
,e. C11' Wig-SO (.\.
all 4111%7-8 i
,',?-
le ring-hS .1 a g
i - - ':', - .'}
...es.
k 1 A (5 ,7'.?1 \Y.- ' ' t,
A ) Fooc rown - ; ,s, 565
... ^I .fr-
,i 5
..
(.., 7; 'T 4:?
) Lung.yen
? r.
. s Ia
ipl\INIO
ii, N-1'E, (V?1v3sN
-V V' '.N (:" vi
K \\.' A '. 6 - sr,,,,.vou)
0
. 14,01,16 1(91.4G
4 N.V..,
cp,0 0

if
SI'. ...- . . \ SI 1 *\"\N sai tan those?t1' e re' ' c'' ' f:,l' a? n' ized? ' ' ' 3b. . . 'y''' ' the U.S. ' ' .' ' SR .5Government.
o
A V 1
T n c H. i N A ..,
S
Boundaries and names are not necessorily
Wei lio\
1
SHENSI
J''''''..-e
'"-I ------- H art c_.---
ECH WAN IA U P
\ "?? Ch'eng-tu
41- Lhasa
\--... -..' \ --'?-?...- R4d,?,
rt
-91 ''-
- n
?:.
'..\? "N. r\e? 1 i --)
4 1 ..7.' , ..- i
.:,
7 .
,..
\-t?
N:1
( '4L- `"\
(
Chungking .. (
e''' ?c?
,?-? "s 2 J.l.'1- '---'
,....
-7 ..i,' ?=."' Hsiong-t
il t
.--.1
1- \
tS. li k: '.\:
j'-?../\.se' K \\. 1 I C. II () \V
I ,
-"N
e - 0
ft oKuei-yang
.- 4 .\--
\
ei
K'un-ming ...)-- 0
0 ,... .o.
00
\
'1 ? .r. -1.,
Z -- ....---1-.) -- N
) I / ......... -**\ ....-- 3 - c)
\-,....
N., r 1.,_ / ).- --. j I NDIA
r 13 H tj
) ?L T A N A....,
)
Ganges f-
/3. ralin14P.H?l ?,/-.
78 84 90 96
1 N
...)
)..
r
r-'?
L.;
24 i .. Y > N N
gri Electric power *
Ca
ko Petroleum
.....
1 Northeast China
n Inner Mongolian
Autonomous Region
--- International boundary, demarcated
-- International boundary, undemarcated
- - International boundary, indefinite
COMMUNIST CHINA
SOVIET AID PROJECTS
Coal 4 Iron and steel IA Nonferrous metals ? Machine-building
Chemical ik Pharmaceutical 04 Textile 0, Paper AI Shipbuilding
ECONOMIC REGIONS
III North China V Central China Southwest China T ?)??? Sinkiang Uighur .
IA, Autonomous Region
IV East China VI South China Northwest China X Tibet
S2SIISHL Economic region boundary
GENERAL BASIC INFORMATION
? National capital - -.- Internal administrative boundary, March 1956
0 Internal administrative center r} i ,111 \ c, ?4-1111 Centrally-govemed municipality (shih)
.. ..
(-5.
??,./
s.loc" ...--3.
1 Mekong
?
r .......,--7
i
' THAILANDil'
(
)
3 , ' 'ai-y(lan A N S 1
5 haKo-chiu
r'Na\--nin-rg ----'ss'c:7114
.?-\ ?) *"\-.1-...,
rc/... ri ) - C',
..--\../"\I ' 1.1 .-.%.* i r'''
\ ??? .6-., 5