NET ASSESSMENT PLANS: AN UPDATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92R01136R000200180007-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 20, 2013
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: March 8, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

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8 March 1988
MEMORANDUM FOR: See. Distribution
THROUGH: Douglas J. MacEachin
Director of Soviet Analysis
FROM.
Chief, Strategic Evaluation Division
Strategic Issues Group
SUBJECT: Net Assessment Plans: An Update
1. The DCI and Secretaryof Defense will submit to Congress this week
their formal response to the "Nunn amendment" (see Attachment A). The
legislation requires the Intelligence Community to conduct military net
assessments (and required a formal plan by 1 March).
The formal response proposes to involve the Intelligence
Community in military net assessments that will be conducted
primarily by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
It proposes five studies. Four are variations on the 1989
Military Net Assessment of the Chairman, JCS. The fifth is
a Technical Net Assessment on low observables.
We expect that Congress will accept this plan and ask for additional
detail.
2. The DCI has chosen Major General Larry Budge, NIO/GPF, as his
point-of-contact for Intelligence Community involvement in joint DOD/IC
military net assessments.
We expect that the NIO/GPF will task DI Offices to support
JCS net assessment work, including to serve on working
groups.
The NIO/GPF probably also will ask DI Offices to provide
repres ta ives or points-of-contact for coordination
tasks.
CONFIDENTIAL
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3. The "Nunn amendment" al so calls for greater effort on the part
of the Intelligence Community, "and specifically the CIA," to assess
Soviet views of relative military capabilities. In a separate
communication to Congress, the DCI will state that the CIA will produce
special "red" (Soviet-view) net assessment studies during FY 1989 and
beyond (see attachment B). These studies would represent efforts beyond
CIA's support to joint DoD/IC net assessments. SOVA and OSWR presumably
will be re e for these studies within the FY 198q RpcpArrh
Program.
Attachments:
A. DCl/SecDef Plan for IC Support of Net Assessments
B. DCI statement on special net assessment studies
beyond CIA's support to joint DoD/IC net assessments.
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CONFIDENTIAL
\\N
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uuilrIULNIIML
Distribution:
I - D/OSWR
I - D/EURA
I - D/NESA
I - D/OEA
I - D/ALA
I - D/COMPT
I - D/SOVA
I - Ch/RIG
I - Ch/RIG/TFD
I - Ch/SIG
I - Ch/SIG/SPD
I ea - SIG BCs
I ea RIG/TFD BCs
SOVA/SIG/SEC
(8 Mar 88)
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z
ATTACHMENT A
MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OP DEFENSE
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Subject: Intelligence Community Support of Net hssessment
The enclosed plan for Intelligence Community'support of
DOD net assessments and the letters of transmittal to
committee chairman have been prepared in response to a
requirement included in the Intelligence Authorizat'ion Act
fbr Fiscal Year 1989. The? plan and letters of trensmIttill
have the agreement of the members of the DOD Net Assessment
Coordinating Committee.
Request your approval and signature on t.11 stnclosi4ed
letters.
? RICHARD L. ARMITAGE
Assistant Secretary of Defense
(International Security Affairs)
r?
ROBERT W. RISCASSI
Lieutenant General, USA
Director, Joint Staff
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Dear
(Chairman, SikcC, S5C1. SAC, ASC,
MAC)
The Intelligence Authorimation Act for Fiscal Year isaa
Conference Report requests that the Secretary of Defense and the
Director of Central Intelligence provide a plan for?the conthIct of
net assessments which allow for independent judgegkeelts by the
Intelligence Community.
The JCS 1987 Military Net Assessment and othcr previous USD net
.assessment studies have historically lig!ed 6,xtensive input from the
Intelligence Community. On September 6, 1987 Admiral, Crowe and
Judge .Webster agreed to formalise ak plan for Intelligence Community
support of JCS Net Asseesmau...:.
'Enclosed is our plan for Intelligence Community participation in
net asseusments. Admiral Crowe agrees with thil plan.
Sincerely yours,
-
FRANK C. CARLUCCI WILLIM U. WESSTER
Secretary of Defense Director of Central Intelligence
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q FOR INTELLIGENCE CCMHUNITY SUPPORT OF NET ASSESSKENTS
e Secretary of Defense and the Director of Central /ntelligenc:
cotablian this Plan which provides for the full participation of the
ntelli gence Community in DOD net assesieents. The, Intellisellc:
i
community will:
participate in the development of requirements for,
- participate in the establishment of parameters for,
- provide coordinated intelligence, and
-,participato in the conduct of
net assessments by the Department of Defense. The 'Intelligence
Community will review and comment on net assessments prior to
dissemination external to. the Executive Branch, and will have the
right to present independent conclusions based on its review ot the
results.
2 Community-agreed intelligence data bases and assessments will be
used for net asnessments where possible. However, where the
intelligence input to net assessments is new or comprises material at
variance with enrlier Community views, coordination shall bc conducted
by -a working group consisting of representatives ox all intereste6
members of the Intelligence Community. Coordination will normally be
conducted in amanner similar to that for National Inteniclence
Estimates (NIEs).
.3. The Intelligence Community will participate in net asseeemente witb
DOD/JCS in areas critical to the overall effectiveness of US national
security policy, strategy, tactics, and weaporris wystibma.
these net assesaments will include such areas as;
a. Total military capabilities. These asseeements will innude an
analysis of MTfitary functional capabilities acrc:sa the spectrum of
warfare including conventional, stzategic nacleaz, nonstzateqc
nuclear and CBW. Other military capabilities will bo analy.ted,
including: intelligence, eustainability, mobility, electronic
warfare, sPeQial operations forces, reAserve forces, command,
control, and communications, and 1**LleYithipe *Orb'lfe, anb training..
b. Regional politico-Military balances. These assessments etll
analyze the capability of the US and its al1ies tu auhieve regional
objectives versus the capabilities of an adversary, ptincipaily the
Soviet Union and its allies. Th03* balances may also take into
account significant regional sub-balances e.o., North Korea/South
Korea).
c. Joint technical net assessments. These assessmente will analyse
the standing of US end allied R D efforts relative to those of
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y,1;0 Soviet Union in key military and technology areas, such ame low
1,eservable technology, new exploeives, and directed energy veapons.
These areas are critical as they are fundamental to current. and future
farce planning ana national strategy as set torth in NSD0 238. the
National Security Strategy, and the Detense Guidance.
4. The time table for initiati-n ..-^mple*ir,n of net assessments
identified for Intelligence Commuaity participation. over the nest two
years is as follcws:
1968 JCS Net Assessment (Unclassified Document)
Commence: I March 1988 Complete: 30 September 1988
Interim 1989 Military Net Assessment
Commence: 1 November 1987 Complete: 30 October 1988
1988 Joint Technical Net Assessment, Low Observable Technology
Commence: 1 April 1988 Complete: I December 1988
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1989 Military Net Assessment
Commence: 1 November 1987 Complete: 30 June 1989
1989 JCS Net Assessment (Unclassified Document)
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Commence: 1,0ctober 1968 Complete 30 September 1989
S.? Dissemination of these net assessments shall include those senior
Officials .involyed in national security policy in both the Executive
Branch end to the followin1 committees of the Congresst Senate-Armed
Services Committee, Senate Select Comsittte InteLLigance, Senate,
Appropriations Committee. House Ared Services Committee, Bougie &also
Committee on Intelligence, and tht House Appropriationa Committee..
6. Implementation of the aboee plan has commenced and will be fully
implemented by 1 October 1988.
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WORP.14400010lai.
100TH CONGRESS
1st Session
SENATE
Calendac .4o. 247
REPORT
100-117
AUTHORIZING APPROPRIATIONS FOR FISCAL ?YEARS 1988 AND 1989 FOR
INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, THE INTELLI-
GENCE COMMVNITY STAFF, THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY SYSTEM (CIARDS], AND FOR OTHER
PURPOSES
JULY 17 (legislative day, JuNE 23), 1987.?Ordered to be printed
Mr. Nuilm from the Committee on Armed Services,
'submitted the following
REPORT
[To accompany S. 1243]
The Committee on Armed Services, to which was referred the
bill (S. 1243) to authorize appropriations for fiscal years 1988 and
1989 for intelligence and intelligence-related activities of the U.S.
Government, the Intelligence Community Staff, and the Central In-
telligence Agency Retirement and Disability System, and for other
purposes, having considered the same, reports favorably thereon
with an amendment and recommends that the bill as amended do
pass.
PURPOSE OF THE BILL
S. 1243 would authorize appropriations and other matters for
Fiscal Year 1988 and 1989 for intelligence activities of the United
States Government, including certain Department of Defense intel-
ligence-related activities within the jurisdiction of the Committee
on Armed Services.
The Select Committee on Intelligence reported out the bill on
May 20, 1987 and it was referred to this Committee under the pro-
vision of Section 3(b) of Senate Resolution 400, 94th Congress for a
period of 30 days.
SCOPE OF COMMPITEE REVIEW
The Committee conducted a detailed review of the intelligence
community budget request for Fiscal Years 1988 and 1989. This
was the first year that the Administration and the Congress consid-
ered budget for the Department of Defense and the intelligence
community is a two-year budget. The purpose of the two-year au-
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thorization is to permit longer range planning within the Executive
Branch, reduce turmoil caused by the annual budget process, and
permit both the Congress and the Executive Branch to concentrate
on issues of oversight and management and reduce the amount of
time spent in the annual budget process.
The Committee has carefully reviewed the report of the Select
Committee on Intelligence and has incorporated the relevant budg-
etary decisions of that Committee in the Defense Authorization Act
for Fiscal Year 1988 and 1989 reported by this Committee on May
5.
AMENDMENTS AND OTHER MEASURES
The committee has considered and adopted one amendment and
two additional measures.
COMMUNICATIONS SECURITY
The Committee supports the recommendation contained in the
classified annex prepared by the SSCI that funds should be added
to continue to improve communications security for certain domes-
tic communications.
NET ASSESSMENTS BY THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
Net assessments provide a valuable source of information on the
potential effectiveness of U.S. forces and weapons systems in hypo-
thetical engagements with adversaries. In order to conduct such as-
sessments, one requires detailed and accurate information on both
foreign and U.S. weapons systems and tactics.
A small office exists in the Department of Defense to conduct
and coordinate net assessments. This office, separate from the in-
telligence community, relies on data from the intelligence commu-
nity relative to foreign weapons systems, as well as data from the
military services and other DoD organizations on friendly forces.
However, the results of these net assessments have been restricted
primarily to the Secretary of Defense.
Up until 1981, there was some debate as to the extent to which
the intelligence community should conduct or become involved in
net assessments. Some have argued that while the intelligence
community has expertise in foreign weapons systems and tactics, it
lacks the requisite expertise and often the access to necessary data
relative to U.S. forces. Further, it was argued that such analyses
require a commitment of resources beyond what the community
can afford without interfering with the overriding mission of for-
eign assessments. Proponents of intelligence community involve-
ment have pointed out that the expertise and elaborate tools used
by the intelligence community to evaluate and assess effectiveness
of foreign weapons systems are equally applicable to U.S. weapons
evaluations. Further, the involvement of the Intelligence Commu-
nity would lend greater credibility to the results of net assess-
ments. For example, in the acquisition of weapon systems, the serv-
ice proponent of a particular weapon has the primary if not sole
responsibility in assessing how well that weapon will perform
against opposing threats.
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In 1981, the Director of Central Intelligence and the Sect.
Defense agreed that they would jointly conduct net assessme, CD
selected areas, and that DoD would provide the intelligence 5'
munity with data on U.S. forces for use in these analyses. The m -0
notable activity undertaken pursuant to this agreement to (inc. a)
has been a joint net assessment of U.S. and Soviet strategic for 'in:,
completed in 1983, and updated in 1985. However, these joint c(-0)
forts have been very limited in number and scope. These effortsa
clearly could and should be expanded.
For example, it would be useful to have an independent net :is Ri
sessment of such strategic systems as the U.S. air-breathing sys
tems against the Soviet Air Defense systems. This is particularly?
important given the well-publicized problems with the B-1B anC10
the substantial investment yet to come in air breathing systems.
Net assessments of key weapon systems will assist the executive>
branch and the Congress in making budgetary and programatic de-13
cisions. Currently, the absence of such assessments means thatE3
very important decisions are often made without a complete or in-<
dependent assessment of how these systems would fare in actual
combat. -h
In June 1986, the Packard Commission recommended that the
Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community expand its
net assessment work. Specifically, the Packard Commission recom-
mended that:
At the direction of the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the
Joint.Chiefs of Staff, with the assistance of the other members of
the JCS and the CINCs, and in consultation with the Director of
Central Intelligence, should also prepare a military net assessment
that would:
Provide comparisons of the capabilities and effectiveness of
U.S. military forces with those of potential adversaries for the
Chairman's recommended national military strategy and other
strategy options;
Reflect the military contributions of Allied Forces where ap-
propriate;
Evaluate the risks of the Chairman's recommended national
military strategy and any strategy options that he develops for
the Secretary of Defense and the President; and
Cover the entire five-year planning period.
In the Goldwater-Nichols Defense Reorganization Act of 1986,
the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs was given a new responsibility to
perform "net assessments to determine the capabilities of the
armed forces of the United States and its allies as compared with
those of their potential adversaries" (10 U.S.C. 153(a)(2)(C), as
amended by section 201 of P.L. 99-443.) This responsibility was
added because the Congress believed that the Chairman should also
have an enhanced role in net assessments.
The Committee believes that more involvement in specific net as-
sessments by the Intelligence Community is a prerequisite for
meaningful participation in the overall assessment of the national
military strategy envisioned by the Packard Commission. The Com-
mittee is mindful, however, of the potential impact such involve-
ment may have on resources and believes that intelligence commu-
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nity participation should be structured so as to provide an alterna-
tive source of net assessment information for those Department of
Defense weapons systems or plans judged critical.
Accordingly, the Committee directs the Secretary of Defense and
the Director of Central Intelligence to develop a plan for the con-
duct of net assessments which allow for independent judgments by
the intelligence community. the Committee believes that the fol-
lowing considerations should be taken into account in the develop-
ment of this plan:
Intelligence community net assessments for the Department of
Defense should be restricted to those areas judged critical to the
overall effectiveness of U.S. national security policy, strategy, tac-
tics or specific weapon systems. The plan should specifically identi-
fy and prioritize those areas selected for intelligence community
participation and the reasons why they are judged "critical".
Given the resources associated with complex net assessments, the
conduct of joint net assessments by DoD and the intelligence com-
munity are acceptable. The plan should permit the intelligence
community to have an equal role in establishing the parameters of
the assessment and to arrive at independent conclusions based on
the results. The process used in the preparation of national intelli-
gence estimates is a useful model in this regard, including proce-
dures for reporting dissenting opinions.
The completion of net assessments should be timed so as to pro-
vide maximum value in the decisionmaking process. The plan
should set forth a timetable for initiation and completion of those
net assessments identified for intelligence community participa-
tion.
Net assessments would be particularly valuable to senior officials
involved in national security policy outside the Department of De-
fense in both the Executive Branch and Congress. The plan should
provide a mechanism for dissemination of information on the re-
sults of net assessments to such officials. Further, appropriate
senior officials should be consulted in the selection and prioritiza-
tion of areas to be the subject of net assessments.
Furthermore, the Committee encourages the Intelligence Com-
munity, and specifically the CIA, to improve its analysis of how the
Soviets view "the correlation of forces," which is the Soviet term
analagous to net assessments.
The Committee requests that the plan be provided to the Armed
Services, Intelligence, and Appropriations Committees of the House
and Senate no later than March 1, 1988 with an implementation
date as soon thereafter as practical but no later than October 1,
1988. The Committee will assess the plan as a basis for any further
action in this area deemed appropriate.
UNDISTRIBUTED REDUCTIONS AND THE NATIONAL FOREIGN
INTELLIGENCE PROGRAM
The Committee is concerned about the impact on the National
Foreign Intelligence Program of undistributed reductions in the
Department of Defense Authorization which might be required as a
result of Congressional action. It is the intent of the committee
that undistributed reductions applied in the Fiscal Year 1988 and
5
Fiscal Year 1989 Department. of Defense Auttint
propriations accounts of the Department of Defense
plied to elements of the National Foreign Intelligence
contained in those accounts.
COM M ITTEE ACTION
On July 14, 1987 the Committee on Armed Services approved the wi
bill as amended and ordered it favorably reported.
EVALUATION OE REGULATORY IMPACT
(D
In accordance with paragraph 11(b) of Rule XXVI of the Stand- 0-
ing Rules of the Committee, the Committee finds no regulatory
impact will be incurred in implementing the provisions of this legA
islation.
CHANGES IN EXISTING LAW
In the opinion of the Committee, it is necessary to dispense with
the requirements of Rule 12 of Rule XXVI of the Standing Rules of
the Senate in order to expedite the business of the Senate.
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NOTE TO: DCI
Central Intelligence Agency
Office of the Deputy Director for Intelligence
FROM: Dick Kerr
The Nunn ammendment also calls for the
Intelligence Community, "and specifically
the CIA," to improve its analysis of how
the Soviets view relative military capabilities.
With this in mind, I think it would be useful
to add to the package the attached statement
of what we plfin to undertake this year in the
way of "red":.net assessments.
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