GROWTH IN HIGHER EDUCATION ENROLLMENT: 1978-1985

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00530R000300620012-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 2, 2013
• Sequence Number: 12
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 :CIA-RDP90-005308000300620012-3
O it 7--
Center r Education tat~stres -~
Growth in Higher
Education Enrollment:
1978 fo 1985
Issue Paper
Office of Educational Research and Improvement
U. S. Department of Education
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This report, with revisions, is reprinted from The Condition of Education, 1986
edition, published by U.S. Department of Education's Center for Education Statistics
(CES). Copies of; Condition are available from the Superintendent of Documents,. U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. 'I'o order, send a check or money
order for $13 and refer to stock number 065-000-00276-1.
Center for Education Statistics
"The purpose of the Center shall be to collect and
disseminate statistics. and other data related to educa-
tion in the .United States and in .other nations. The
Center shall ... collect, collate, and from time'. to
time, report full and complete statistics on the condi-
tions of education. ;in the United States; conduct and
publish reports on specialized analyses of the mean-
ing and significance of such .statistics; ... and re-
view and report on education activities in foreign
countries, "-Section 406 (b) of the General Educa-
tion Provisions Act, as -amended (20 U.S.C.
..1221 a-1). .
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 growth in Higher L+'~Catlon ~nroliment: ly~i 1ya~
by Phillip Kaufman
Overview
College education in the United States _has grown
considerably in the past forty years. Since 1950, en-
rollment has increased by over 300 percent, while
the number of institutions has increased almost 80
percent (U.S. Department of Education, 1986b). Dur-
ing this period the nation's student body has grown
increasingly more diverse, with greater numbers of
women, minorities, part-time students, and older
adults enrolling in colleges and universities.
At the end of the 1970's, however,, some analysts
saw in the projected decline of the 18- to 24-year-old
population evidence for college enrollment declines in
the 1980's. As of 1985, these overall enrollment de-
clines have not occurred, and, in fact, college enroll-
ment increased in the eazly 1980's. -This paper exam-
ines the factors which have contributed to the
increase in college enrollment since 1978, and dis-
cusses the possible impact of these factors on future
levels of college enrollment. The major findings in-
clude:
1~ends in enrollment, 1978-1985
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? Enrollment has increased despite declines in
the 18- to 24-year-old population.
? The major factor in the enrollment increases
since 1978 has been higher enrollment rates
for 18- to 24-year-olds.
? The other factor contributing to increases in
higher education enrollment in recent years
has been increased enrollment by women, par-
ticularly those 25 and older.
Implications
? The two factors which kept enrollment high in
the late 1970's and early 1980's may be tran-
sitory.
? Enrollment rates for women 25 and older may
decline as more women attend college prior to
the age of 25.
? The enrollment rate for 18- to 24-year-olds
may decline as higher proportions- of college-
age persons come from .groups with tradi-
tionally lower college-going rates.
? Therefore, while enrollments have remained
high in the eazly 1980's, a decline in the late
1980's and eazly 1990's may occur.
The data for this analysis come from iwo sources:
the Department of Education's Higher Education Gen-
eral Information Survey (HEGIS) and the Bureau of
the Census' Current Population Survey (CPS). In this
paper; the data source(s) used are indicated in paren-
theses at the beginning of each section. The analysis
scheme for this paper is based, in part, on a report
prepared for the Center for Statistics by Cazol Fran-
ces (1986) of Washington Resources Inc.
Although both CPS and HEGIS publish October. en-
rollment data, HEGIS obtains its data from reports
submitted by the colleges and universities, while
CPS obtains enrollment data as part of a periodic
sample survey of households. Therefore; HEGIS is a
census of its population while CPS is a sample
survey. ~
CPS collects data on individual .students -which
makes detailed analyses about student chazacteristics
possible. For example, CPS is the only source of na-
tional data on college enrollment by age.2
Vends in Enrollment, 1978-1985
Throughout the last decade, many analysts and col-
lege administrators expressed concern about enroll-
ment declines in the 1980's. Pointing to the declining
population of 18- to 24-year-olds, some analysts pre-
dicted decreases of 15 to 20 percent in total enroll-
ment between 1981 and 1995 (Crossland, 1981; Car-
negie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education,
1980).3 Contrazy to the predictions of these analysts,
however, while the 18- to 24-year-old population did
shrink 1.9 percent between 1978 and 1985, and the
18- to 21-year-old population declined 8:4 percent,
total enrollment in higher education increased over 12
percent in that period.
Patterns in college enrollment can be analysed from
several perspectives. For example, the total number
of 18-year-old women students can be shown as the
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proportion of all college) students or as the proportion
of all 18-year-old women. Each comparison tells a
slightly different story, and has its own 'importance.
One yields information about the current mix of stu-
dents on college campuses, while the other indicates
mained constant-about 9 percent for 25- to
29-year-olds, 6 percent for 30- to 34-year-
olds, and about 1.5 percent of those 35 and
over.
the college-going rate foi? 18-year-old women. For those 18 to 21, enrollment rates increased be-
tween 1978 and 1983. Over that time period the
The following sections u'se both types of comparisons number of 20- to 21-year-old students increased and
to discuss several factors which have contributed to the number of 18- to 19-year-old students was rela-
trends in college enrollment since 1978. Furthermore, Lively stable. The population age 18 to 21 shrank by
in discussing these factors, this paper divides recent almost 9 percent between 1978 and 1985.
t
d
i
m
ren
s
n college enroll
ent into two periods, 1978
to 1983 and 1983 to 1985. During the first period,
enrollment rose each year and in the second period,
total enrollment declined in 1984 and then increased
in 1985.4
Gender (CPS). Women as a proportion of all col-
lege students5 steadily grew through the late 1970's
and early 1980's.
? Women~as=a-prop ro ion-of-all-college-students
rose=from~9-9=percent-in--1-978-to 52:9~pei
cent in_-1985
? Women- cc~d~-for, ~7 percent_-of`the_iii
creaseyin_college-attendance-between_1-978_and~
d~983:~
? Between 1983- and 1985 the number of men
enrolled in college decreased 1.7 percent,
while .the number 6f women continued to in-
crease.
The increase in women students was the result of a
rising proportion of all women 14 and older attend-
ing college, from 6.3 to 6.6 percent.b At the same
time, men's college-going rate was declining, from
7.0 to 6.7. The gap between men's and women's
college-going rates had disappeared by 1985.
Age (CPS).~B~etween 1'978 ana-1-Q85,=the_number of
college students 25 and old re increased considerably
(Figure 1). This increase was due to growth in the
age group, as the large baby-boom cohort grew older,
rather than a change in participation rates for persons
over 25.
? The-number=of students-25-and=o?1 erd -grew-~by~
22.0_.pe.r_ce~nt_b.etwe~n-1-978~and-1-985; whi__ lei
c
~the_number-of-students~35~and~oider-grew-by-_~
X27 5_pereen__t~
? Over the 1978-85 period, the college-going
rates for each of the age groups over 24 re-
? The number of l8- to 21-year-olds enrolled in
college increased by 6.3 percent between 1978
and 1985 (Table 1) (U.S. Department of Com-
merce, 1986).
What-som a aly_~ts_could-not-foresee-in making
their predictions--of-decline-in-thy lateil"9.7.0"s~was~-
that the~proportion-of-i-8-tb '2-1-year=olds-attending
ollege-would-increase-substantially; from_31~9 pe_r-,~
tice-nt-in-1-97-8-to--37-1--percem-in-1-985 If college-
going rates had remained in 1985 what they were in
1978, the decrease in the 18- to 21-year-old popula-
tion would have resulted in a decrease of more than
700,000 students:
? `T-he-increase-in-the-partic'-ipafion-r-ate-for-18-
cto,2-l~year-o cis-eontribu[ed-i co ol=lege=enroll~
Ement~being~alinost-330;000=t~ighec in=1=985