NIE 82-58: THE OUTLOOK FOR GUATEMALA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A012200020015-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 8, 2014
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: January 6, 1958
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
6 January 1958
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Allan Evans, State (OIRA)-
Colonel E. T. Seaburn, USA (ACSI)
Captain W. S. Howell, USN (ONI)
Colonel R. B. Hibbert, USAF (AFCIN 2B2)
,Colonel J. M. Pittman, USA (JIG)
SUBJECT : NIE 82-58: THE OUTLOOK FOR GUATEMALA
1: The attached terms of reference were agreed on at
the meeting of the IAC representatives on 6 January.
2. All agencies are invited to contribute to 4111r section
within their competence to do so.
3. It is requested that contributions be received in
this office by the close of business on 7 February.
Distribution IIBH
ARET
7,2
WILLIAM P. BUNDY
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICE OF FATTOL ESTIMATES
6 January 1958
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REFERENCE: NIE 82-58: THE OUTLOOK FOR GUATEMALA*
THE PROBLEM
To estimate the outlook in Guatemala over the next few years,
with special reference to political trends and prospects for Communist
influence.
SCOPE ?
The last fully developed estimate on Guatemala was NIE 82-55,
published on 26 July 1955. NIE 80-571 "Pelitical,Stability in Central
America and the Caribbean" (23 April 1957) necessarily gave Guatemala
only summary coverage. The situztion to which these estimates were
addressed was radically altered by the assassination of President Castillo
* Classification of the title :when used alone is Official Use Only.
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rmas last July -Ind political deterioration since that time. A
re-examinntion of Gu.,temala is now required. The new estimate, which
will supersede NIE 82-55, will seek to determine the ch?rncter and
Prospects of the regime which will succeed the present interim
administrntion as may be indicated by the outcome of the election to
be held in January. It should be projected into the future as far
as is possible.
QUESTIONS BILRING ON THE PROBLEM
I. INTRODUCTION. Discuss briefly those general characteristics of
the country and past political trends that contribute most directly
to the Present political dilemma. How significant are -popular
memories of the Ubico dictatorship, the aspiration s of the 1944
revolution, and the regimes of Arevalo, Arbenz, and the late
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Castillo Arms?
II. POLITIC !L TRENDS
( ?
1. What is the ?character of the new governnent? Its constitutional
statuS? .What are its nrAdonal policies and objectives?
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2. What are the characteristics of the government leaders? Are
they qualified for effective leadership? What specific
personality traits will most influence their conduct? What
are their special interests? Their attitudes toward civil
supremancy, Communism, the US, labor, agrarian reform, economic
nationalism, and foreign investment? What is the extent of
their popularity and influence?
3. What are the strength and popular influence of political and
social elements supporting the regime? For what reasons do
they back tbe regime? How firm is their support? What is the
attitude and extent of influence of the Catholic Church?
4. What is the attitude of the military toward the regime? To
what extent are military loyalties distributed within and
outside the regime?
5. What are the status, attitudes, and influence of organizO
labor?
6. To what degree have the anti-Communist elements joined forces?
What political and social elements are opposed to the regime?
For what reasons? What are their strengths, weaknesses, and
popular influence?
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3. What are Communist- capabilities? To what extent have the
Communists infiltrated into labor, political parties, and
influential positions in the administration? How much. and in
-what circles have they increased their influence? Do they
constitute a danger to the security of.the-regime? If not,
in what circumstances would they become dangerous? How
effective is anti-Communist legislation? That is the impor-
tance to the locnl Communist movement of external connections,
including bloc missions and exiles in other countries?
9. That is the life-expectancy of the regime? Is it threatened
more by rightist or by leftist forces? What would be the
nature of the most likely successor government?
III. ECONOMIC TRENDS
10 That is the present character of the Guatemalan economy?
That are the most pressing economic problems? What is the
status of agricultural production and trade? Has real GNP
increased or decreased over the past year? Why? What is the
government's current financial situation, including its
balance of pgrments position? How do these conditions affect
political developments?
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P. Mist is the governmentls likely capacity for carrying out a
program of economic development? ?
3. What have been the nature and extent of international assist-
ance to Guatemala, both private and public (loans, technical
assistance, communications and power development, petroleum
exploration, etc.) since the fall of Arbenz? How significant
has US aid been in terms of strengthening the economy? Mat
are governmental and popular attitudes toward this aid? vhat
would be the effects of a removal or severe curtailment of
American assistance?
4. What is the nature and extent of foreign investment? How has
the political situation since July 1957 affected foreign
private investment? Will this condition persist?
5, Mat are the economic position and prospects of the United
Fruit Company; ? Empresa Electrica, and IRCA?
6, What are the short-term prospects for the economy? Will
'Guatemala require foreign financial assistance over an
extended period?
5 OD
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IV. MILITARY TRENDS
L. Are the Guatemalan armed forces capable of maintaining
internal security? What are their capabilities against
neighboring states? Are capabilities likely to change
substantially? What about para-military organizations
(MDN militia, PR, others)?
2. To what degree do the armed forces have a common political
outlook? Haw significant is factionalism? Is the air force
a significant factor in the political situation? Who are the
most promising military leaders? What would be the attitude
of the military toward a regime in which Communists exerted
substantial influence?
3. What is the status of Guatemala with respect to Hemisphere
defense and VS military assistance?
V. FOREIGN 'RELATIONS
1.? Mat is the prime mover of Guatemalan foreign policy? What
are governmental and public attitudes toward the US? What
are the country's relations with other major Free-World
countries? What has been its record in the OAS and UN? What
changes are likely with respect to these issues?
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2. To what extent are other states in the northern Latin American
area exerting pressures to mold Guatemalan political develop-
ments? With what success? To what extent are these pressures
likely to persist, especially on the part of Nicaragua and the
Dominican Republic? net important Guatemalan personalities
are likely to be involved?
To what extent is Guatemala likely to become involved in the
internal affairs of neighboring states? 'that action is
Guatemala likely to take in pressing its claim to British
Honduras (Belize)?
What effort has the Soviet Bloc made to reestablish its
influence in Guatemala since the death of Castillo Armes?
Is it likely that diplomatic relations between Guatemala and
the Bloc will be established and that currently negligible
economic ties will be expanded?
VI. THE LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK
1. What are the likely over-all political cnd economic trends in
Guatemala? that are the prospects for creation of a moderate
and strongly anti-Communist regime similar to that of Castillo
Armas? For a transition resembling the Ubico-Arevalo-Arbenz
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one? lhat progress are the Communists likely, to make over
the next few years?
2. To what extent will likely developments in Guatemala affect
conditions in neighboring Central American states? How will
they affect US relations with the Latin American area?
VII. VALIDITY STUDY of NIE 82-55 and that portion of NIE 80-57 which'
treated Guatemala.
VIII. POST-MORTEM un NIE 82-58
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