INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ESTIMATIVE PRODUCTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP98S00099R000501010043-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 1, 2012
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: August 29, 1979
• Content Type: MEMO

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29 August 1979
Memorandum for: SRP
Subject: Intelligence Community Estimative Products
1. I have done some research on the subject of intel-
ligence community estimative products. These include National
Intelligence Estimates (NIEs), Special National Intelligence
Estimates (SNIEs), National Intelligence Analytical Memorandums
(NIAMs), and Interagency Intelligence Memorandum (IIMs).
a. National Intelligence Estimate. This art form
has been in existence since 1950, although its definition
and content have undergone various changes.
b. Special National Intelligence Estimates. This
product first appeared in 1954 and has been in active
use since then.
c. National Intelligence Analytical Memorandum.
Publication of this product was first authorized in
1973 (see attachment a). The NIAM was abolished as
an art form in late 1977, apparently because people
preferred the more losely defined IIM.
d. Interagency Intelligence Memorandum. The IIM
was authorized in 1974 to fulfill a perceived need for
a new art form with a looser definition and which would
not need NFIB endorsement but which would still be a
community product (see attachment b).
2. The precise definitions as well as the content and
usage of the above publications have undergone various changes
over time. I have been assured by the Executive Secretary of
NFIB, Walt Elder, that no formal definition of the estimative
intelligence products is in existence. He said that the 1978
"Glossary of Intelligence Terms and Definitions", for example,
is regarded only as a guide book or training aid rather than
an official and binding NFIB document. In fact, he said that
most members of the community have complained about various
definitions and have asked for revisions, but the group which
put out the document has been abolished. He regards the
25X1
STAT
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definitions which appeared in the 1975 "Guide of the National
Intelligence Community's Production Organizations and Their
Products" as having more official status, as the guide was
issued under a USIB directive. But since that time the usage
and content of the products has varied in practice. Thus the
field is wide open for a revision and redefinition of the
various estimative intelligence products.
3. The process for the production of interagency
intelligence products is also largely undefined. The last
formal definition was in DCID 1/1 (see attachment c) in 1959.
This was modified with a USIB directive by DCI George Bush
in 1976 (see attachment d), but no official revision was ever
issued. Instead, ad hoc working relationships concerning the
production process for national estimates and the role of the
NIOs have developed over time. The status of the NIOs also
has been changed by their being subordinated to D/NFA, and
much of their direction has come from that source over the
last few years. Walter Elder has informed me that he has
urged the DCI to issue new directives more clearly defining
the production process and the role of the various participants,
but that Turner has been reluctant to do so, preferring to work
problems out informally.
4. In summary, it appears that the SRP can break new
ground in defining the appropriate content and usage of various
interagency intelligence products.
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USIB-D-13. 1/39
19 April 1973
UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE
138 1
MEMORANDUM FOR THE UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
SUBJECT National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) and
National Intelligence Analytical Memo-
randums (NIAMs)
REFERENCE : USIB-M-640, 19 April 1973, Item 3
Following discussion with USIB at its meeting of 19 April the
Director of Central Intelligence authorized the issuance of the attached
-directive for the information and guidance of all concerned.
RUCE A. I:OWE
Executive Secretary
Attachment
Exempt from general declassification
schedule of E.O. 11652, exemption
category 5B(2). Automatically de-
classified on: date impossible to determine,
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USIB-D-13. 1/39
19 April 1973
1. The Director of Central Intelligence, having discussed. the matter
with the USIB, has decided to issue a new national intelligence publication
to be known as the National Intelligence Analytical Memorandum (NIAM).
Certain topics will be selected for treatment in this format rather than in
the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), although a few might require
treatment in both formats.
2. Issuances in the NIE format will in future be governed by the
following criteria:
a. The intended users will be NSC-level policy-
making authorities.
b. Topics selected for treatment in the NIE
format will be limited to those of high policy concern.
c. The exposition will normally be structured in
such a way as to illuminate policy issues and, when
appropriate, the choices which may be open to policy
authorities.
d. Brevity; if backup material is required it will
be published in separate annexes.
3. The NIAM will be governed by the following criteria:
a. The intended users will be officials involved
in policy support activities below the NSC level.
b. Topics selected for treatment in NIAMs will
be of important policy concern but will not usually
have the high priority of NIE topics.
c. As in most NIEs of recent years the argument
of the analysis and the supporting evidence will
normally be exposed in some detail.
4. The procedures which have been used to accomplish interagency
coordination of NIEs will apply also to the NIAMs, except that the NIAM
will not normally appear on the USIB agenda; it will be subject to tele-
phonic concurrence within a designated period after issuance of a final
text by the Office of National Estimates. However, if any USIB member
has a serious substantive problem with a draft NIAMM, he may request
that the paper be placed on the USIB agenda.
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ATTACHMENT ,
R
co
National
Intelligence
Officers
Office of the Director
of Central Intelligence
DATE: 1. February 1974
TO: George Carver, Jr.
SUBJECT: Art Forms
Attached is a talking paper on the subject
of Art Forms. In response to your request,
Lou Marengo, John Whitman and I discussed
the subject and we would propose further
discussion with all NI0's as convenient.
Keith Clark
NI0/WE
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goo
Office of the Director of Central Intelligence
31 January 1974
MEMORANDUM FOR: All NIO's
SUBJECT : Art Forms for Estimative Papers
I. PRESENTLY AVAILABLE FORMS
1. What follows is a (fairly subjective) characterization
of existing art forms available to us for estimative-analytical
pieces -- including some observations on the characteristics of
each as I understand them and as I think they are presently under-
stood in the community. The aim is not to suggest that these are
all our options, but merely that this is the array which, by usage,
we have to work with at the moment. This should aid in determining
what we want to propose that is new or what we want by way of
extensions or modifications of existing entities.
. A. The NIE
This is, of course, the most solemn and formal community
document. Formerly some 60-80 of these were produced each
year but An the past year probably no
more than 20-25 have been done. Schlesinger's philosophy
was that these should be confined to the most important and
policy-relevant subjects. His test was that they should
be such that the top policy makers would be ashamed to admit
that they had not read them; this test, of course, puts a
premium on brevity, cogency and relevance. Except the large
military papers (11-8, 11-14, etc.) he conceived of these as
being like 10 or 12 pages of tightly written analytical and
judgmental matter, uncluttered by any more informative detail
than was necessary to support the findings. (Since this view
of the PIIE excluded a number of papers that called for national
coordination, his solution was to create the NIAM -- see below.)
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Colby has been less intent on keeping the NIE's confined
to short and high level limits but I believe it to be true
that the community as a whole and most of the customers like
the distinction between the NIE and the NIAM.
B. The SNIE
This has remained pretty much unchanged in its essential.
nature over the years, namely the same procedural and bureaucratic
status as an NIE except it is done on a shorter fuse and normally
for a more specific purpose -- typically by request of some
policy maker or USIB member. Long ago SNIE's were done to estimate
consequences of alternate US policy options; this has been much
less frequent in recent years but could be used again if convenient.
The fact that we no longer systematically schedule National
Estimates three to six months in advance may tend to increase
the proportion of SNIE's to NIE's, but obviously too many SNIE's
would inflate the category.
C. The NIAM
This category, as noted above, was created to accommodate
many of the papers that once would have been called NIE's.
Its typical characteristics are greater length and informative
detail than NIE's (at least as Schlesinger conceived them),
a slightly less sexy kind of subject matter, and a somewhat
foreshortened mode of coordination; specifically USIB has nor-
mally concurred by telephone and there is less scrupulous
massaging'~of the text.
The Joint Memorandum
This is a considerably looser art form with rath
i
er
ll
defined ground rules regarding interagency coordination and
approval. One example is the short series on Chile put out in
1971 under OCI aegis which came complete with a cover containing
the seals of CIA, DIA and State. I don't know how high up in
the prospective Agency hierarchies approval was sought for this
kind of job. There have been other experiments in this category,
with different offices in CIA carrying the main burden of the
action and working out various verbal formulae to indicate. working
level coordination without commiting USIB principals. One
-2-
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interesting anomaly occurred in May 1971 when INR published
a "Research Study" called Latin America: The Situation and
Trends, 1969-1975; An Overview.?-CIA OCI participated in
preparing the paper but in the event refused to be officially
associated with it and the paper appeared with a note on the
cover as follows: "This study was prepared with the participa-
tion of the Directorate for Estimates, Defense Intelligence
Agency". (An historical curiosity which is not likely to
occur again).
2. One further distinction occurs to me that we ought to keep in
mind. The kinds of documents discussed above have almost all been.
published with a fairly wide audience (or at least wide circulation).
There have been, of course, many instances of joint Agency productions
which were circulated in very limited form, as typescript memorandums,
etc. Probab~y.t a are going to want to do a number of these since
they accord/the preferred style of the present policy making system.
But I don't see that rules of format or procedure are or should be a
significant problem in these cases since by definition such decisions
should be made on the merits of each case.
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II. POSSIBLE NEW FORMS: ATTENDANT PROBLEMS AND DESIDERATA
3.- We should consider whether it is not sensible, in addition--
to using and adapting existing art forms, to establish something
new. An innovation is attractive both because it could be tailor-.
made to our purposes and because it would underscore in a general
way the fact that business is being done in a different fashion.
On the other hand, it also seems desirable to continue to make use
of certain established instruments where these now enjoy good
acceptance 4nd lend themselves to valid purposes.
A. Clearly one of our purposes is to provide ways
of carrying out the Director's desire that NIO's take the lead
in preparing national intelligence by taking the best possible
expertise without too rigid attention to conventional bureau-
cratic procedures. In a word, we should be able to tailor
groups to prepare and consider papers, choosing the best possible
people no matter who they are or where they sit in the government.
The problem arises over the status of the finished intelligence,
and most particulariover the form of USIB Agency endorsement
of it or dis''ent from it. There are numerous possibilities ranging
across a spectrum.
At one end would be intelligence pieces prepared
and published on the Director's behalf, under the leadership
of the NIO, with the participation of any combination of
individuals and agencies deemed suitable by the NIO, and with
no statement of concurrence by agencies. In effect, this would
reflect the concept of the NIO picking the brains of the people
he deemed desirable for the project in hand and producing
the results.
At the other end of the spectrum is the interagency
memorandum signed off on by the Agency heads, with clear indi-
cation of this on the cover.
4. The first of these is desirable in terms of how the Director
wants us to do a lot of our business. The trouble is that it is hardly
"national intelligence" under the terms of NSCID R. That document,
in defining "national intelligence" says the DCI shall produce it
and that it will carry "a statement of abstention or any substantially
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differing opinion of a United States Intelligence Board member or
of the Intelligence Chief of a Military Department."
5. One possibility is to make use of the rubric "Interdepartmental
Intelligence" also defined in NSCID #1. The definition is so broad
as to be a license for almost anything we want to do but it has the
merit of not requiring formal Agency chops. This rubric has never,
to my knowledge, been well-defined or even used to any great extent.
6. On the subject of NSCID's we should keep in mind that #3
defines "joint intelligence" as a special category produced by defense
intelligence organizations for the Joint.Chiefs of Staff; (this makes
undesirable the use of the term for us).
7. As for titles, if we decide to establish a new art form
there are several possibilities. We might want to call them""National
Intelligence Memorandums", "NIO Memorandum", "DCI Intelligence Memorandum"
to name three.
8. Lou Marengo, John Whitman and I have discussed this problem,
having before us Section I of the foregoing and also NSCID #1 and #3.
Section Ilof the foregoing reflects our discussions.
S
Keith Clark
NIO/WE
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ATTACH HEAT
DCID No. 1/1
(New Series)
DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE DIRECTIVE NO. 1 /1
PRODUCTION OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES
(Effective 5 August 1959)
Pursuant to the provisions of paragraphs 3 and 4, NSCID No. 1, and
in order to facilitate department participation in the production of
national intelligence estimates, the following operating procedures are
established :
1. Programming
Periodically, but not less than quarterly, the Board of National Esti-
mates, Central Intelligence Agency, will present to the United States
Intelligence Board (Intelligence Board) for approval a program of Na-
tional Intelligence Estimates and Special National Intelligence Estimates
(NIE's and SNIE's) for production during the following six months. In
preparing this program, the Board of National Estimates will consult
with the NSC Planning Board and appropriate committees of the Intelli-
gence Board, and will coordinate with the Intelligence Board agencies.
2. Initiation
Requests for estimates other than those programmed will be trans-
mitted to the Intelligence Board via the Board of National Estimates.
This Board will take such action as is indicated by the circumstances
prior to transmitting the request to the Intelligence Board for action;
e.g., comment, initiate immediate action subject to subsequent Intelli-
gence Board ratification, or attach draft terms of reference to its recom-
mendation that the estimate be approved for production.
3. Normal Preparation
Estimates will normally be prepared in four stages:
a. Terms of Reference and Contributions - The Board of National
Estimates, after consultation with the Intelligence Board agencies,
will circulate terms of reference indicating the scope of the estimate
and the intelligence material needed. The Agencies, or an Intelli-
gence Board Subcommittee or other appropriate group, will then pre-
pare contributions and submit them to the Board of National Esti-
mates.
b. Drafting and Board of National Estimates Consideration - After
considering the contributions, and such consultation with any con-
tributing agency which may be appropriate, the Board of National
Estimates will prepare a draft.
c. Consideration by Representatives of the Intelligence Board
Agencies - Representatives of the Intelligence Board agencies will
'This Directive supersedes DCID No. 1/1, effective 21 April 1958, which in turn
had superseded DCID No. 3/5, of 1 September 1953.
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meet with the Board of National Estimates to review, comment on,
and revise the draft as necessary.
d. Intelligence Board Consideration - The final draft will then
be submitted to the Intelligence Board for approval.
4. Preparation under Exceptional Circumstances
Any of the steps listed in 3a, b, and c above may be omitted under
exceptional or unusually urgent circumstances.
5. Dissents
Any agency may dissent to any feature of an estimate. Such dis-
s--nts identify the dissenter and will state the dissenter's position on the
matter.
6. Publication and Dissemination
Finished estimates will be published by CIA and disseminated by the
DCI according to established procedures. Published estimates will carry
a note indicating the extent of coordination within the intelligence com-
munity.
ALLEN W. DULLES
Director of Central Intelligence
W
?
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JNUL Ui V NJ'J B -D-111. 2/1.
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON, D. C. 20505
4 June 1976
1`IC:i~}DRANnUt~I FOR JIM,, NATION:IL FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE BO.\RD
SUBJL;CL' Guidelines for National Intelligence Production
1. I have approved the attached guidelines for national intelli-
pence production. In so doing, I am stating my strong sur:; ;.:,rt for the
National Intelligence Officer concept.
?. The Deputy to the DCI for National Intelligence II organ :e
the Intelligence Advisory Panel and the steeri.nzi group caned for in
Paragraph 6.
3. Issuance of a revised DCID 1/1 will be deferred until satis-
factory procedures involving these new entities have been evolved. In
the interim, present procedures for the production of National Intelli-
gence Estimates and related papers will remain in force.
Attachii ent :
Guidelines for National
Intelligence Production
Georg Bush
l'
NOPORN
CON 1T1 1)1 :N\iriAL
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.,Q. 11652
exemption category 5B(11 )?J)
Aoroa oricc~lly decloss,hr on
Dote Impossible to Determine
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National Production
Attachment
NFib-D-14.2/2
4 June 1970
1. Ordanizatio_nal Location: Responsibility for national
intelligence production, other than current, will be lodged in
the Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, in accord-
ance with Executive Order 11905.
2. National Intelligence Officers: The National Intel-
ligence Officers will constitute the &C-1 's staff for this pur-
pose.
a. The NIO structure will be headed by
the Deputy to the DCI for National
Intelligence. He will work in close
cooperation with the DCI's Deputies
for the Agency and for the Community.
b. Each NIO will be a senior staff officer
who will serve the DCI directly as
senior counselor on his assigned area
of substantive responsibility.
c. The NIOs will be drawn as broadly as
possible from elements of the Intel-
ligence Community, other government
components, and outside government.
In principle, Ni0 assignments will
be rotational for two to three years.
d. The number of NIOs and the apportion-
ment of portfolios among them will
depend on the DCI's perception of
his needs at any given time.
3. Responsibilities: The NIOs will be responsible to the
DCI for:
a. Supervising non-current* national pro-
duction including:
Cu~i~cevtt irttcf LtLgerrec at. the na.toeo E't'Ve-e. to(_ .f cort.t~.r;-ic to
be a ne,5porr-5 ~bt~.i_t:r/ o,"% CIA. CIA arrci the. NI05 wiee corrcc' t
.to amid -urcn;z5-is-teuc.~ in =5ubstant