FREE WORLD VERSUS COMMUNIST BLOC STANDING IN THE FOUR MAJOR CITIES OF INDIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00268R000600030020-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 3, 2013
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: February 1, 1960
• Content Type: REPORT

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Office of Research and Analysis
FREE WORLD VERSUS COMMUNIST BLOC STANDING
IN THE FOUR MAJOR CITIES OF INDIA
NE-6
February, 1960
SURVEY RESEARCH STUDIES
Near Eastern Public Opinion Barometer
CONFIDENTIAL
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INTRODUCTION AND PROCEDURES
As part of the Agency's continuing need for information pertaining to the
state of public opinion in key countries toward the U.S. and its allies vis--vis
the Communist bloc, the present survey was undertaken in India in the summer of
1952a In addition to providing trend data on changes in attitudes towrirlEr""'
SIATed States and the Soviet Union, one of the major purposes of this survey was
to measure the extent to which Chinese suppression of the Tibet revolt in the
spring of 1959 affected Indian attitudes toward China. Measurements of attitudes
toward England were also included in the present survey in order to gain an addi-
tional comparative dimension on Indian attitudes regarding the East-West conflict.
A study carried out in 1958 for USIA provided the bench-mark for measuring the
direction and extent of these trends.
Both the 1958 and the 1959 studies were conducted by International Research
Associates, Inc., New York, via their Indian affiliate -- the Bureau of Commercial
Intelligence and Statistics. The 1959 study was described as sponsored by commer-
cial interests in conjunction with a market research survey being conducted at
the same time.
The 1958 sample comprised a total of 1290 cases based upon a carefully de-
signed probability sampling of Indians on the voting registers in metropolitan
areas having a city population of 100,000 or more. For reasons of economy the
1959 survey was limited to a total of 800 cases -- 200 adults 21 years of age and
over taken from the voting registers of each of the four major cities in India
(Delhi, Madras, Calcutta and Bombay) -- and was further limited to exclude those
with no education since in the 1958 survey the "Don't know" responses from those
with no education were usually 90 per cent or higher.
In view of these differences in sampling procedures, various adjustments
were necessary to make the two sets of data comparable. In the case of the 1958
survey, the 350 respondents with some education from these four cities were pulled
out of the total 1290 sample and their responses were separately tabulated. The
data from the 1959 survey were weighted to reflect the proportional distribution
in each city of the Indians who had some formal education, using the distribution
of the educated respondents by city in the 1958 survey as a base. The distribution
of the 1958 sample by city and the weighted 1959 sample by city are as follows:
1959 1959
1958 Actual Weighted
Survey Interviews Sample Size
No, No.
Delhi
37
10.6
200
200
10.5
Madras
64
18.2
200
350
18.4
Bombay
91
26.0
200
500
26.3
Calcutta
158
45.0
200
850
44.7
350
99.8_
800
1900
99.9
In view of the fact that the 1959 survey was confined to the four largest
cities, certain precautions should be observed in interpreting the data. The
results can not be considered representative of all urban Indian opinion. A
comparison of the four-city total for 1958 on selected questions with the total
for all cities of 100,000 population and over included in that survey, indicates
that opinion in the four cities tended to be somewhat more pro-Soviet and pro-
Chinese than was the total urban sample. Furthermore, since there is also a wide
variation in attitudes among the four cities, this data should not be interpreted
as a reflection of attitudes in any particular city, but rather an average of all
four weighted in terms of the comparative population of the four cities. However,
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it should be pointed out that the proportionally greater weight accorded the most
populous city -- Calcutta -- which is known to be more pro-Communist and anti-
American than the others, does not affect the results to any appreciable extent.
If all four cities were given equal weight, the results would generally be very
close to the weighted figures used in this report.
In terms of their background characteristics the composition of the two samples
employed for trend comparisons is as indicated below.
In evaluating the comparability of the samples it should be appreciated that
with the exception of education, most ?of the differences in composition are within
the range of random fluctuation inherent in probability sampling from electoral
lists. To ascertain the extent to which the educational differences might have
affected the results, tests were made on responses to selected questions and it was
found that the totals were not affected by more than about two per cent, of which
a portion could be the result of rounding. It was therefore concluded that it was
not necessary to correct for educational differences in the weighting procedures used
Sample Composition:
1958 Survey
Weighted
1959 Survey
No. of cases
(350)
(800)
Age:
21 to 25 years
12%
14%
26 to 30
23
21
31 to 40
40
31
41 to 50
17
18
Over 50
8
16
100%
100%
Sex:
Male
71%
68%
Female
29
32
100%
100%
Education:
Primary
51%
40%
Secondary
27
40
College
22
20
100%
100%
Occupation:
Professional
13%
6%
Executive and Government
official
4
6
Businessman and trader
23
18
Clerical/white collar
14
11
Skilled and semi-skilled
worker
12
Laborer
20
12
Student
2
3
Housewife
24
26
Retired
3
Unemployed
3
100%
100%
Income:
Over Rs. 1000
3%
3%
Rs. 500 to 999
8
10
Rs. 250 to 499
24
21
Rs. 100 to 249
44
42
Less than Rs. 100
21
24
100%
100%
'Since no census data providing precise population figures on these characteristics
were available for the four cities, it was not possible to make a check to find out
to what extent the background characteristics of these two samples taken from the
voting lists correspond with the actual distribution of these characteristics in
the population.
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\
Frequently throughout this report readers will note that comparisons are shown
not only in terms of the percentage favorable or unfavorable to the U.S. on a given
issue, but also in terms of a net favorable figure -- favorable minus unfavorable
answers. Such an index often provides a useful basis of comparison since it helps
to take into account in one unitary figure the extent to which favorable responses
are offset by 'unfavorable. In comparing "net favorable" indices, however, readers
should understand that they reflect not only the comparative ratios of favorable to
unfavorable opinion, but also the extent of "no opinion." In consequence, net
favorable scores may differ even with the same ratios of favorable to unfavorable
views (among those expressing opinions) because of a difference in extent of no
opinion. In only one question, -- attitudes toward foreign leaders -- was it found,
however, that the differences in the size of the no opinion group materially affected
the interpretation of the results. In this single case, a net favorable figure of
only those with opinions has been included, as well as the net favorable index for
the total sample.
As readers of USIA survey studies are regularly reminded, results obtained
from statistical samples are not of absolute precision but are subject to a small
range of chance fluctuation varying mainly with the size of the sample. Differences
between percentages are also not to be taken wholly at face value, but are only to
be considered significant if they are large enough, with the number of cases involved,
to be reliable beyond the limits of chance variation. These considerations are re-
flected in the statements made in the text. Anyone interested in specific details of
statistical procedure in this or other connections is invited to consult the Office
of Research and Analysis, Survey Research Division, USIA.
Original plans for analysis and presentation of the survey data were altered
by unforeseen circumstances that arose after the survey had been launched. In
late August when the interviewing was approximately two-thirds completed, the news
of Chinese military incursions across India's borders and claims on Indian terri-
tory became public. Indian reaction to these border developments was vividly re-
flected in the Indian press, public demonstrations, etc. Thus original plans to do
a city-by-city comparison of the four cities covered in the survey had to be dis-
carded because the interviewing in Delhi and Calcutta had been practically completed,
in Madras over half completed, and in Bombay only just begun at the time these events
became public, and hence these cities were obviously not comparable in their extent
of exposure to these very significant developments.
The timing of the interviewing in the four cities, along with other considera-
tions, also precluded any precise determination of the extent to which the change
in attitudes toward China was a result of Tibet as versus a result of the subsequent
Indian border incidents. Division of the sample into two groups, one representing
opinion before, the other after the border events, does not provide a proper basis
of comparison for a number of reasons, the principle one being that Bombay, where
most of the "after" interviewing was done, was shown by the 1958 survey to be more
anti-Communist to begin with than any of the other three cities.
Finally, in the interest of brevity and because of complexities in the data,
the overall figures have not been presented by degree of education. The pattern
of differences by education appears to vary, on occasion, rather considerably from
city to city in such wise that an overall education comparison runs the risk of
being a misleading average of rather disparate elements. On the other hand a
separate educational breakdown for each city would rest upon too few cases to be
reliable.
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HEADLINE SUMMARY
China drops sharply in general esteem; U.S. and Russia about on a par;
England rated highest ...
Eisenhower, Khrushchev and Nasser approximately equal in general esteem
---Ea -0 ;rt. - ?
Russia continues to be most frequently cited 4s "Real best frierld" of India;
U.S. and Emirand-iied for secOnd place ...
Self-estimates of opinion change confirm adverse trend in Chinese standing;
suggest improving trend for Russia, U.S., and England ...
In sources of favorable impressions, U.S. somewhat behind Russia in science
and space, slightly ahead in aid ...
China criticized primarily for interference in Tibet and border problems
with India
Identification of of W.sic'interestS with U.S. increaset?substantially,to level
Of-Rustia ancLEngland; China:?falls"sharOly.,..: ? ."
Nonalignment attitude stronger than in 1958; proportion favoring siding with
Communist powers drops appreciably ...
While preference prevails for a balance of power, somewhat more would like
to see anti-Communist than Communist side stronger....
Russia appears to lead U.S. on question of who will be strongest in 1980
I :r-t.4.4,rauto544--was-,e,
Favorable juggments of China's and Russia's peace efforts drop considerably
the only in-itance of a negative trend 6n kuisia in the survey; despite some
fiie;UpS, still well below U.S.S.R. ...
Pakistan identified as chief "Danger to India" ...
But Russia and U.S. regarded as greatest "Danger to world peace" ...
Russia most associated with phrase "Domination of other people by force" ...
But the term "Imperialism" far more frequently associated with Britain than
with Russia ...
Association of "Economic progress" and "Domination of other countries
economically" with America indicates admiration of U.S. economy not unmixed
with concern ...
"Democracy" associated increasingly with U.S ? ...
Socialism increasingly favored economic system; capitalism is rated substantially
lower than 'communism and calls forth more negative reactions than any other
question in the survey ...
Yet attitudes toward capitalism no barrier to willingness to learn from
economic system of U.S. ...
Interest in science focuses much more on agricultural production and
medicine than on space research ...
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CHINA DROPS SHARPLY IN GENERAL ESTEEM; U.S. AND RUSSIA ABOUT ON A PAR;
ENGLAND RATED HIGHEST ...
That China's departure from the principles of peaceful coexistence cut
substantially into its standing in India is clearly indicated in a trend survey
of educated, urban opinion in the four largest cities of India in the summer
of 19599 approximately a year following an initial survey of urban Indian
opinion in 1958. The trend measurement was made for the most part before the
Indian government's exposure on August 27 of Chinese efforts to obtain Indian
territory, and thus represents primarily reaction to Chinese activities in
Tibet rather than to the border dispute.
? Despite the loss, however, Indian opinion of Communist China remained
predominantly favorable in the net as of the time of the latest survey, which
suggests that Indian esteem for China is not something which is readily dissipated.
It remains for further trend studies to indicate to what extent the incursions of
the Chinese into Indian territory have additionally reduced China's standing among
Indian urbanites.
Since the earlier survey, favorable opinion of the U.S. appears to have
edged up slightly, but not to the point of exceeding Russia. The similarity of
Soviet standing in the two surveys suggests that adverse judgments about Chinese
policies have not been generalized to China's closest ally. The possibility
exists, however, that Russia's rating might have been higher in 1959 had it not
been for China's adventuresomeness.
For broader perspective in interpreting country standing, the latest survey
included England among the countries to be judged. The results indicate a heavy
predominance of favorable over unfavorable sentiment -- well above the other
countries measured -- and would appear to be no small tribute to a country 010
for so long a period was in the position of governing India. While trend dm-
parisons can not be made because the sample was so dissimilar, it might be noted
in this connection that in another survey conducted in February 19571, the same
question elicited a very substantial predominance of unfavorable attitudes toward
Great Britain; it ranked in eighth place out of nine countries measured, being
exceeded only by Pakistan in the predominance of unfavorable attitudes. This
critical attitude toward Great Britain at that time was probably in large part
a result of Britain's actions in the Suez Canal crisis in late 1956.
"Please tell me your feelings about various countries --
do you have a very good opinion, good, fair, bad, or very
bad opinion of each of these? How about ...7"
Opinion of:
England
Russia
America
China
1959
1958
1959
7667
1958
1959
76-617
1958
1959
73.55T
No0 of cases
(800)
(350)
(TSU)
(7(71)
Very good opinion
16%
12%
15%
10%
16%
6%
5%
Good opinion
42
39
33
31
30
35
23
Fair opinion
20
21
27
26
25
21
26
Bad opinion
3
5
4
7
7
2
11
Very bad opinion
*
1
1
4
1
*
3
No opinion
19
22
20
22
21
36
32
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Net Favorable2
55
45
43
. 30
38
39
14
* Throughout the report an asterisk indicates less than one-half of one per cent.
1 See IRI Special Report No. 7, "Some Indications of the Present Standing of the
U.S. vs. Communist Powers in Indian Public Opinion," June 14, 1957, CONFIDENTIAL.
2 See Introduction for an explanation of the term "Net Favorable."
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EISENHOWER, KHRUSHCHEV AND NASSER APPROXIMATELY EQUAL IN GENERAL ESTEEM
AMONG THOSE WITH OPINIONS ...
Among the foreign leaders whom the educated Indian urbanites were asked to
judge, Khrushchev appeared to be somewhat more widely known than any of the others.
Because the size of the "no opinion" group varied more on this question than on
some of the other country comparisons, a comparative index of the net favorable
of only those with opinions is presented in addition to the net favorable of the
total sample. Reference to this index reveals that Khrushchev, Eisenhower and
Nasser elicitred approximately equal ratings among the group in which opinion had
crystallized. Although it cannot be said that the Dalai Lama received an over-
whelmingly favorable response, it was appreciably better than Chou En-lai's and
only slightly below Nasser's.
"Here are some questions about various leaders from
foreign countries. Please tell me what your feelings
are about each of these men -- do you have a very good
opinion, good, fair, bad, or very bad opinion of each
of these? How about ...?"
Premier
Khrushchev
of Russia
President
Eisenhower
of? America
President
Nasser
of Egypt
The Dalai
Lama
of Tibet
Premier
Chou En-lai
of China
No. of cases
(800)
(800)
(no)
(800)
(800)
Very good opinion
12%
12%
13%
7%
4%
Good opinion
38
31
24
27
24
Fair opinion
20
23
20
19
25
Bad opinion
Very bad opinion
6
1
4
3
-*
5
3
9
4
No opinion
23
30
40
39
34
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Net favorable of
total sample
43
39
34
26
15
Net favorable of
those with opinions
56
55
57
42
22
It might be pointed out that the index of net favorable opinions based upon
the total sample for Khrushchev, Eisenhower and Chou En-lai are almost identical
with the comparable index for the general esteem ratings for their respective
countries (see previous page), indicating a close correlation of opinion about
countries and their major political leaders.
The reader will, of course, appreciate that President Eisenhower's rating may
well have changed very considerably as a result of his recent visit.
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RUSSIA CONTINUES TO BE MOST FREQUENTLY CITED AS "REAL BEST FRIEND" OF
INDIA; U.S. AND ENGLAND TIED FOR SECOND PLACE ...
Comparative Indian opinion of other countries was also approached in the
present survey through the medium of the open inquiry below that permits
reference to any country in the world, rather than confining judgments to a
specific four, and is couched in the more hard-boiled terms of "real best friend"
rather than simply good opinion. On this perhaps more penetrating index of
Indian feeling toward other countries, Russia in the 1959 survey, as in 1958,
continues in first place. The U.S. was second in 1958, but, with a rise in favor-
able opinion about England, is in the latest survey approximately tied for second
place.
"Which country in the world is the real best friend
of India7"1
No. of cases
1958
1959
Russia
37%
31%
America
21
19
England
6
16
China
9
4
Other
5
5
No country
3
3
No opinion
19
22
100%
100%
lIn 1958 this question was worded "Which country is the real best friend of
India?"
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L/1 CONFIDENTIAL
SELF-ESTIMATES OF OPINION CHANGE CONFIRM ADVERSE TREND IN CHINESE STANDING1
?
SUGGEST IMPROVING TREND FOR RUSSIA,U,S., AND ENGLAND ...
Asking respondents directly about possible changes in their attitudes is never
as satisfactory a procedure as objective trend measurements, but it often reveals
useful supplementary insights and provides a basis for inquiring into the reasons
for changes. The results in the present connection confirm the earlier indication
of a decline in China's standing in contrast to positive changes for the other three
powers tested. The differing trends with regard to Russia and China provide addi-
tional evidence that as of the time of the survey there had apparently been no
adverse.effect on attitudes toward Russia as a result of China's Tibetan policiOu6.00?,
"In general, has your opinion of (England, Russia, America,
China) gone up or down in the last six months?"
No. of cases
Russia
TOT
America
TOT
England
(800)
Gone up
33%
28%
20%
Gone down
7
7
8
No change (V414
34
38
44
No opinion
26
27
28
100%
100%
100%
Net Favorable
26
21
12
China
5.6157
12%
26
28
34
100%
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Some of the reasons cited for changes in opinion may be seen in the responses
to the open-end questions following.
IN SOURCES OF FAVORABLE IMPRESSIWS,0i,TWiAT,BEHINp 1..YESTA IN SCIENCE
AM SPACE, SLIGHTLY AHEAD IN AID ...
? ,
'
CBINA CRITICIZED PRIMARILY FORtINTERFERENCE IN TIBET AND BORDER PROBLEMS WITH
INDIA ...
When respondents were asked to recall what in particular had struck them favor-
ably or unfavorably in the last six months about these four countries, favorable
recollections predominated over unfavorable for Russia, the U.S., and England,
whereas for China recollections were substantially larger on the critical side.
In open-end, recall questions of this type, lack of articulateness always limits
the number of specific mentions; 'contequently, the reasons cited may be assumed to
apply to larger proportions than actually mention them.
"Space research" and "Aid to India" were favorably and prominently mentioned
for both Russia and the U.S. However, activities in the scientific field, including
space research, were mentioned about twice as often for Russia as they were for the
U.S. and were also more frequently mentioned in connection with Russia than any
other category of activity. Most of the favorable recollections of the U.S. concerned
economic activities, particularly aid to India and other countries, but the U.S. does
not have a clear lead over Russia even in this area. Of the unfavorable references,
most for the U.S. were concerned with "Military aid to Pakistan", and for Russia
almost an equal proportion were concerned with Russian domination of or interference
in the affairs of other countries.
Unfavorable recollections of China were almost three times)Imerequont'than,
for Russia or America, and most of them related to Tibet. It is interesting, how-
ever, that despite the short time the Chinese invasion of Indian territory had been
in the news and the fact that only about one-third of the sample could have known
about it, 10 per cent of the sample specifically alluded to the border problems.
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"In all you have heard or read about various countries in
the past six months, what in particular struck, you favorably
about (England, Russia, America, China)?"
No. of cases
Scientific:
Russia America England China
TfTUT- (800) (800) 7557
Space research
Scientific advancement
Research on peaceful uses of atomic
energy
15%
6
1
10%
1
*%
1
-%
22%
11%
Economic:
Aid to India
10%
14%
3%
*26
Principle of economic equality
2
*
Economic aid to other countries
4
*
*
High level of industrial, agricultural
production
1
1
1
-
Adequate standard of living for people
1
1
-
1
Reduced aid to Pakistan
*
-
-
Increase in agricultural production
(in speed and degree)
-
4
Advancement in industrialization
(in speed and degree)
-
2
Hardwork? enthusiasm of Chinese people
-
-
1
Methods, organization of labor force
1
England's international economic policy
3
14%
20%
7%
9%
International peace:
Efforts toward international
meetings of leaders
6%
4%
1%
1%
Peace efforts generally, including
disarmament, banning of nuclear
weapons, etc.
6
3
1
Improvement of foreign policy since Dulles
1
12%
8%
2%
Miscellaneous:
In the field of sports
-%
-%
1%
-%
Others
5
3
'4
2
5%
2%
No opinion
57%
63%
85%
89%
Total1
110%
105%
100%
101%
1 Percentages add to more than 100 per cent since some respondents gave mOre than
one answer.
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"In all you have heard or read about various countries in
the past six months, what in particular struck you unfavorably
about (England, Russia, America, China)?"
Russia America England China
No. of cases (800) T65417- (800) (800)
Foreign affairs:
Imperialism, expansion by force or
economic pressure
1%
1%
Propagation of communistic views
2
Interference in Berlin
2
Interference in Hungary
2
Continuation of atomic tests
1
Interference in Middle East
1
Interference in India's domestic affairs
Military aid to Pakistan
6
Military aid and pacts with other
countries
1
Policy toward China and Formosa
1
Unfriendly position on Kashmir
1
Policy toward Russia (unwillingness for
discussions, etc.)
Interference in Tibet
Entry into Indian territory
Disrespectful treatment of Dalai Lama
Interference in border states (Sikkim,
Bhutan, Nepal, Kashmir)
Inclusion of non-Chinese territory in
maps of China
Dishonest, unreliable
Non-cooperative attitude towards
everything, particularly international
sphere
Inability to solve problems of South
African Indians
Unnecessary concern for Europe
1
2%
4.1
21
7
2
2
1
1
Domestic affairs:
1%
1
,
4
1
-
*%
Dictatorship, dismissal or purging
of government officials
Race relations
Absence of civil liberties (free speech,
press, religion, etc.)
AtheisrL
Mistaken internal economic po1icies
3%
1%
*%
0,111eous:
3%
4%
3%
No opinion
87%
86%
94%
68%
Totall
102%
101%
101%
107%
1 Percentages add to more than 100 per cent since some respondents gave more than
one answer.
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IDENTIFICATION OF BASIC INTERESTS WITH U.S. INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY TO LEVEL
OF RUSSIA AND ENGLAND; CHINA FALLS SHARPLY ...
One of the more important findings of the 1959 survey is the indication
that although general esteem for the U.S. improved only slightly, the extent
of Indian urbanite identification with the basic interests of the U.S. has
risen substantially. In the earlier survey, the view predominated slightly
that the basic interests of India and the U.S. were not in agreement. Since
then ther6,4es.been a significant shift in attitude, with a substantial pre-
dominance of opinion in the 1959 survey that the basic interests of India and
the U.S. are in agreement. This shift in the assessment of the agreement of
basic interests between India and the U.S. bringt,' the U.S. about on a par with
Russia, whose net favorable rating remained virtually. the same,, and England.
The substantial,predominance of favorable views regarding the community of
basic interests between India and China in 1958 had dissipated by the time the
1959 survey was taken -- another marked indication of the extent to which the
rather large reservoir of goodwill toward China had fallen,presumably as a
result of China's aggressive policies on Tibet and the Indian border.
Reasons for the present uniformity of the ratings for Russia, England and
the U.S. are not so obvious. Just what connotations or definitions of "basic
interests" most of the respondents had in mind when they answered this question
whether they were thinking primarily in terms of foreign policy objectives,
domestic political similarities, economic, social, cultural or historical
affinities, or some combination of all of these -- is an unknown quantity. It
remains for future surveys to probe more deeply into this question.
"In your opinion, are the basic interests of India and
those of (England, Russia, America, China) very much
in agreement, fairly well in agreement, rather different,
or very different?"
No, of cases
Russia
England
America
China
1958
1959
1959
1958
1959
1958
1958
(350)
(850)
(800)
(350)
(g5U)
(350)
(800)
Very much in agreement
13%
12%
15%
9%
12%
11%
5%
Fairly well in agreement
32
38
33
21
35
35
25
Rather different
12
16
17
19
18
9
17
Very different
8
7
6
20
7
6
13
No opinion
35
27
29
31
28
39
40
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Net "in agreement"
25
27
25
-9
22
31
0
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CONFIDENTIAL
NONALIGNMENT ATTITUDE STRONGER THAN IN 1958; PROPORTION FAVORING SIDING WITH
COMMUNIST POWERS DROPS APPRECIABLY ...
Events since the initial survey appear to have made an appreciable inroad
into the proportion favoring siding with the Communist powers? This loss has
not been transmitted into siding with the anti-Communist powers, however, but
into increasing the support for the strongly predominant position -- that of
taking neither side. Among the minority who favor taking sides, opinion is
now about evenly divided between the Communist and anti-Communist powers, in
contrast to the period of the 1958 survey when the Communist powers had an edge.
"At the present time, do you personally think that India
should be on the side of the Communist powers, on the
side of the anti-Communist powers, or on neither side?"
No. of cases
1958
1959
(350)
(800)
Side with Communist powers
24%
11%
Side with anti-Communist powers
12
14
Neither side
48
62
No opinion
16
13
100%
100%
To what extent events subsequent to the 1959 survey involving a more direct
military threat to India might have altered this pattern of opinion remains for
future surveys to measure.
WHILE PREFERENCE PREVAILS FOR A BALANCE OF POWER, SOMEWHAT MORE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE ANTI-COMMUNIST THAN COMMUNIST SIDE STRONGER ...
To explore a step further the kind of sentiments that might lie behind Indian
inclinations toward nonalignment in the East-West conflict, the present survey
inquired into the extent of preference for an even balance of power between
Communist and anti-Communist nations, as versus a desire to have one or the other
militarily stronger. The results indicate that while indecision is considerable
on this question as compared to that of taking sides, the pattern of returns makes
it appear that at least some of those who do not want India committed to either side
at the same time believe that India can better pursue its objectives under the pro-
tective umbrella of Western military strength.
"Do you think it would be best in terms of India's own
interests for the Communist powers to be militarily
stronger than the anti-Communist powers, militarily
weaker than the anti-Communist poWers, or about the
same in military strength?"
No. of
Best if Communist
Best if Communist
Best if about the
No opinion
1959
cases (800)
powers stronger
powers weaker
same strength
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CONFIDENTIAL
15%
23
33
29
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CONFIDENTIAL
RUSSIA APPEARS TO LEAD U.S..,ON,QUESTIONOF WHO WILL BE, STRONGESTIN:.1980
?
Despite the tendency among those who favored one side or the other to
believe an anti-Communist balance of power would be better for India, a
slightly greater proportion appear to believe that Russia rather than the
U.S. will be militarily and economically stronger in 1980.
"If the major world powers settle down to competition
without war for the next twenty or twenty-five years,
which of the following four powers -- England, Russia,
America, China -- do you think will end up the strongest
economically? Which will be next?"
Strongest
Next Strongest
Russia
38%
27%
/America
31
34
England
6
7
China
4
8
No opinion
21
24
100%
100%
"And how about military strength -- which of the four do
you think will end up the strongest militarily?
And which next?"
Strongest
Next Strongest
Russia
39%
25%
America
28
34
China
4
8
England
4
5
No opinion
25
28
100%
100%
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CONFIDENTIAL
FAVORABLE JUDGMENTS OF CHINA'S AND RUSSIA'S PEACE EFFORTS DROP CONSIDERABLY --
THE ONLY INSTANCE OF A NEGATIVE TREND ON RUSSIA IN THE SURVEY; DESPITE SOME
RISE, U.S. STILL WELL BELOW U.S.S.R. ...
It can not be said that there was great enthusiasm for the peace efforts
of any of the countries measured in this survey; the net favorable ratings for
all four countries were substantially lower than the comparable country ratings
on the general esteem question (see page 1). Russia and England, however, share
an appreciable lead over the U.S. China, as expected, dropped substantially
from 1958.
Perhaps more noteworthy are the shifts in opinion regarding the U.S. and
Russia since the initial survey. The appreciable drop in the estimation of
Russia's peace efforts is the only instance in this survey of a Soviet decline;
on all other trend questions included in both surveys, the rating for Russia
remained unchanged. Opinions about U.S. peace efforts, although evenly divided,
showed a substantial improvement over 1958, when opinion was predominantly
critical. Although the U.S. was still well below Russia, the Russian lead over
the U.S. on this question had dropped from a net difference of 57 points in 1958
to 20 in 1959.
The reasons for these shifts are not so obvious that, as in the case of
China, cause and effect relationships can readily be inferred. However, it seems
possible that the improvement in the U.S. rating may reflect an approval of what
was seen as a greater willingness on the part of the U.S. to have high-level
discussions with the Soviets, evidenced for example by Vice-President Nixon's
trip to the Soviet Union, the Geneva Foreign Ministers' conference over Berlin,
and the announcement that President Eisenhower and Prime Minister Khrushchev
would exchange visits.
"Is (England, Russia, America, China) doing all it should
do to prevent a new world war?"
Russia America England China
1958 1959 1958 1959 1959 1958 1959
No. of cases (350) (800) (350) (800) (800) (350) (800)
Yes
51%
44%
21%
32%
42%
41%
24%
No
17
26
44:
34
24
14
30
No opinion
32
30
35
34
34
45
46
Net Favorable
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
34 18 -23 -2 18 27 -6
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CONFIDENTIAL
PAKISTAN IDENTIFIED AS CHIEF "DANGER TO INDIA" ,..
Despite Indian Concern over Chinese activities in Tibet, opinion at the
time of the survey regarded China as less of a great a threat to India than
Pakistan. It remains for a future survey to measure the extent to which
subsequent Chinese military invasions of India territory and the settlement
of some of the important points of contention with Pakistan might have altered
the relative position of Pakistan and China.
"When the following words or phrases are mentioned, what
foreign country comes first to your mind?"
Danger to India:
1959
No. of cases
(800)
Pakistan
52%
China
10
Russia
5
America
5
Other
2
No opinion
26
10Q%
BUT RUSSIA AND U.S. REGARDED AS GREATEST "DANGER TO WORLD PEACE" ...
Though the Indians sampled viewed Pakistan, for the most part, as the
greatest danger to India, in the wider context of danger to world peace Russia
and the U.S. were the most frequently mentioned.
Danger to world peace:
No. of cases
(800)
Russia
20%
America
20
Pakistan
7
China
5
England
2
Other
2
No opinion
44
100%
It will be noted that mentions of the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. split evenly
on the present question whereas on an earlier inquiry relating to efforts to
prevent war Russia was well ahead of the U.S. This contrast in findings
suggests answers to the present question on danger to world peace may be
reflecting more the facts of power or capacity for causing trouble rather than
judgments about peaceful or belligerent proclivities.
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CONFIDENTIAL
RUSSIA MOST ASSOCIATED WITH PHRASE "DOMINATION OF OTHER PEOPLE BY FORCE" ...
Russia, somewhat more frequently than the U.S., is associated with the
phrase "domination of other people by force." Responses to another question
(see page 6) indicate that domination or interference in the affairs of other
countries is one of the major Indian criticisms of Russia.
"When the following words or phrases are mentioned, what
foreign country comes first to your mind?"
Domination of other people
1959
by force:
No. of cases
(855)
Russia
2t%
America
10
China
6
England
5
France
3
Pakistan
3
Other
6
No opinion
46
100%
BUT THE TERM "IMPERIALISM" FAR MORE FREQUENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BRITAIN THAN
WITH RUSSIA ...
Although Russia and, to a lesser extent the U.S., are most frequently
associated with the concept of domination of other countries by force,
Great Britain is far more often identified with that of "imperialism."
Moreover, for reasons that are not clear, the proportions doing so appear to
have increased since the earlier survey in 1958. How adverse this apparent
change can be taken to be is open to question in the light of the very favorable
pattern of returns in the present survey. It is possible that the considerably
greater emphasis upon England in the present survey, as compared to that in 1958,
brought it more into the focus of attention and thus aave the respondents a
greater opportunity to cite England in the present connection.
Imperialism:
1958
1959
No. of cases
(EU)
(OU)
England
16%
37%
America
14
13
Russia
4
7
Other
6
7
No opinion
60
36
le)0%
100%
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CONFIDENTIAL
ASSOCIATION OF "ECONOMIC PROGRESS" AND "DOMINATION OF OTHER COUNTRIES ECONOMICALLY"
WITH AMERICA INDICATES ADMIRATION OF U.S. ECONOMY NOT UNMIXED WITH CONCERN ..,
When attention is shifted from "domination of other-people by force" to
"domination of other countries economically" the U.S.. and Russia reverse:fiositions,
with the U.S. far more frequently mentioned. , However at the same time the U.S. is
also most prominently associated with the term "economic progress", which suggests
that the economic power of the U.S. arouses mixed feelings in,the Indians -- a
compound of admiration and apprehension.
"When the following words or phrases are mentioned, what
foreign country comes first to your mind?"
Domination of other countries
1958
1959
economically:
No. of cases
(335)
(875)
America
38%
42%
Russia
5
12
England
4
6
France
-
2
China
1
1
Other.
3
2
No opinion
49
35
100%
100%
Economic progress:
America
35%
Russia
18
China.
9
West Germany
4
England
4
Japan
2
Other..
3
No opinion
25
100%
"DEMOCRACY" ASSOCIATED INCREASINGLY WITH U.S. ...
For whatever reasons, there appears to be somewhat more frequent identification
of the term "Democracy" with the U.S. than in 1958, but for the other countries it
remains about the same. The increase for the U.S. gave it a slight lead over England
and Russia, with whom it had formerly been approximately on a par.
Democracy:
1958
1959
No. of cases (350
(800)
America
14%
25%
England
15
14
Russia
11
14
China
5
4
Other-,,
13
7
No opinion
42
36
100%
100%
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CONFIDENTIAL
SOCIALISM INCREASINGLY FAVORED ECONOMIC SYSTEM; CAPITALISM IS RATED SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWER THAN COMMUNISM AND CALLS FORTH MORE NEGATIVE REACTIONS THAN ANY OTHER QUESTION
IN THE SURVEY ...
Socialism is by far the most favored economic system for India -- an opinion
which has grown appreciably since the initial survey. Although both communism and
capitalism have shown a slight drop over this same period, it does not appear that
socialism necessarily grew in favor at their expense; it is possible that this
growth in net favorable opinion is a result of the crystallization of views among
those who formerly had no opinion.
Capitalism is substantially lower than communism in Indian regard -- in fact
capitalism elicited more negative reactions than any other question in the survey.
Attitudes toward communism are about evenly divided.
It should be mentioned, however, that these three terms -- socialism,
communism, and capitalism -- are rather large concepts, the meanings of which are
subject to varying interpretations and connotations which have not yet been fully
explored. Certainly the respondents were evaluating them in terms of their own
experience and possibly many in terms of the appropriateness-of each system to
Indian conditions. Therefore, the results do not in every case necessarily
indicate any condemnation of economic approaches in other countries whose con-
ditions are known to differ materially from those existing in India. The term
"American capitalism," it will be recalled, while it did not elicit a predomi-
nantly favorable reaction in the 1958 surveyl, nevertheless enjoyed a substantially
higher rating than did the term "capitalism" per se. Other surveys2, although not
comparable in sample composition to this one, support the frequently made, sub-
jective observations that Indians still think of capitalism as the outmoded, 19th
century variety with which they are most familiar and that they often automatically
associate the worst features of capitalism with the American economic system. On
the other hand, some Indian observers have stated (and with some amusement,
believing that "socialism" is an unpopular term in the U.S.) that the U.S. economic
system is really more socialist than the economic system of many of the countries
who call themselves socialist.
"Now I would like to turn to a different subject and ask
your opinion about some economic systems. Do you have
a very good opinion, good, fair, bad, or very bad opinion
of each of the following types of economic systems --
Socialism, Communism, Capitalism?"
Opinion of:
Socialism
Communism
Capitalism
1958
1959
1958
1959
1958
195
No. of cases
(350)
(800)
(350) (wo)
(350)
Very good opinion
15%
34%
7%
8%
3%
3%
Good opinion
27
28
21
15
6
6
Fair opinion
20
12
21
25
9
16
Bad opinion
1
4
14
22
26
30
Very bad opinion
1
1
7
6
19
22
No opinion
36
21
30
24
37
23
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Net Favorable
40
57
7
-5
-36
-43
1 See IRI report PMS-36, April 1959, "The Image of America in Urban India, II.
Some Judgments About Specific Areas of American Life," CONFIDENTIAL
2 See IRI report P-13.1-58, "The Indian Image of the U.S., A Preliminary View,
Part II: The American Way of Life" pages 4-7,, September 16, 1958, CONFIDENTIAL,
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CONFIDENTIAL K.
YET ATTITUDES TOWARD CAPITALISM NO BARRIER TO WILLINGNESS TO LEARN FROM ECONOMIC
SYSTEM OF U.S. ...
Even though the Indian urbanites definitely appear to be negatively oriented
to capitalism as they Understand it, they are very interested in learning from the
economic systems of industrially advanced countries regardless of the nature of
their economic philosophies. There is equal interest, for example, in learning
from the economici systems of England, Russia, and the U.S. The fact that less
interest was shown in China could in part be a result of the political differences
between the two countries, but it might reflect to a greater extent a view that
China, being at an almost equal stage in economic development with India, has
less to offer.
"In shaping its own course of development, howmOth -do you
feel India can usefully learn from the economiC.system of
(England, Russia, America, China) -- a great deal, some,
only a little, or nothing at all."
England
Russia
America
China
No. of cases
(800)
TOOT
--(767)-
(800)
Great deal
36%
34%
35%
17%
Some
29
34
33
26
Only a little
9
7
9
10
Nothing
4
4
3
14
No opinion
20
21
20_
33
100%
100%
100%
100%
INTEREST. In SCIENCEFOCUSES.MUCH MORE-ON- AGRICULTURALTROMCTIONAND-MEDICI
THAN ON SPACE RESEARCH ...
Despite the great impact Russian and American space research have had on the
educated Indian urbanite, there is comparatively little interest on his part in
learning more about space exploration. His scientific interests are concentrated
more on scientific fields that would have more immediate, practical value to
Indians, such as agricultural and medical science.
"In general, how interested would you say you are ?in learning
more about the ways in which science has been used to benefit
mankind -- very interested, fairly interested, only slightly
interested, or not interested at all?"
No. of cases
1959
(800)
Vory intc!rested
47%
Fairly interested
23
Only slightly interested
13
Not interested at all
17
100%
If "Vervirr_tgyilte_f_stesill: "I'm going to read
a list of ways in which science has been used to benefit mankind.
Which of the following ways would you be most interested in learning
more about?" (Only one selection allowed)
Increasing agricultural production 35%
Scientific medicine in diagnosing illness. 19
Atomic energy as a source of power
and light
Exploring outer space
Developing water resources
The sun as a source of energy
Not interested in any of these
9
3
2
2
';5$
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