DOD PLAN FOR THE CONDUCT OF JOINT NET ASSESSMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90G01353R001800200008-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 10, 2012
• Sequence Number: 8
• Publication Date: March 1, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

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ROUTING AND RECORD SIE
?
SUBJECT: (Optional)
DoD Plan for the Conduct of Joint Net Assessments
FROM: MG Larry D. Budge, USA
National Intelligence Officer for
General Purpose Forces
EXTENSION
NO
NIC# 00780-88
DATE
I March 1988
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
RECEIVED
FORWARDED
1' H. F. Hutchinson, Jr.
Acting Chairman, National
Intelligence Counril
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2.
DI Registry
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3.
Deputy Director for
Intelligence
4.
Executive Registry
04. MAR 1988
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Central Intelligence
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? RDMINIWKALIVt - ililtKNAL Uot UNLI
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
VIA:
FROM:
NIC/I 00780-88
1 March 1988
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director for Intelligence
Acting Chairman, National Intelligence Council
MG Larry D. Budge, USA
National Intelligence Officer for
General Purpose Forces
SUBJECT: DoD Plan for the Conduct of Joint Net Assessments
1. The purpose of this memorandum is to obtain your concurrence in the
draft plan for the conduct of joint DoD/Intelligence Community net
assessments.
2. Background. In the summer of 1987, Senator Nunn attached a report
(see Attachment 1) to the FY 88-89 Intelligence Authorization Act designed
to involve the Intelligence Community (IC) in the conduct of net
assessments. The Report which finally emerged from the conference committee
endorsed the Senate Armed Services Committee Report. Salient points of the
report are as follows:
Secretary of Defense and Director of Central Intelligence develop
a plan not later than 1 March 1988 for the conduct of joint
DoD/IC net assessments.
Joint DoD/IC net assessments should be restricted to those areas
judged critical to the overall effectiveness of US national
security policy, strategy, tactics, or specific weapons systems.
The Intelligence Community must have an independent role in the
conduct of these net assessments.
3. Attachment 2 is the Doll draft plan drawn Up by the Net Assessment
Coordination Committee (NACC) for the conduct of joint DoD/IC net
assessments. The NACC is a DoD committee organized in 1986 to supervise the
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
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net assessments required by the Goldwater-Nichols Defense Reorganization
Act. The following is my assessment of the plan:
The plan provides for the full participation of the Intelligence
Community in joint net assessments. It does not address the
issue of who should take the lead within the Intelligence
Community. In fact, I am your representative within the
Intelligence Community pursuant to the memorandum at Attachment 3.
The plan is generic in scope with few details, but it probably
meets the minimum requirement.
The plan addresses five net assessments in the timetable section.
Four of these are really variations of a single net
assessment--the Chairman's Military Net Assessment--and the fifth
is a net technical assessment dealing with low observable
technology. Although the plan mentions weapons systems net
assessments, DoD elects not to address any weapons systems net
assessments "initially,". This may cause some problem, as we
understood weapons systems net assessments were the real focus of
Nunn's interest. The choice of net assessments is, however,
really DoD's call and the Intelligence Community probably has no
basis for questioning it.
In reality, we believe DoD has no intention of doing weapons
systems net assessments. Instead, DIA has a procedure called
STARs (System Threat Assessment Report) for validating the
service-developed threat evaluations for specific weapons
systems. STARs is a part of the DoD procurement cycle and DoD is
opposed to replacing it with net assessments. Senator Nunn
probably will not accept STARs as a valid substitute for weapons
systems net assessments.
Bottom line is that the Intelligence Community should support the
plan as written and I will proceed to implement it on your behalf.
4. Recommend you concur with the DoD plan as written.
Attachments:
As Stated
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
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net assessments required by the Goldwater-Nichols Defense Reorganization
Act. It has met Only three times since its inception. The DI, rather than
the NIO/GPF, was added to the NACC last week to represent the Intelligence
Community. The following is my assessment of the plan:
The plan provides for the full participation of the Intelligence
Community in joint net assessments. It does not address the
issue of who should take the lead within the Intelligence
Community.
The plan is generic in scope with few details, but it probably
meets the minimum requirement.
- The plan addresses five net assessments in the timetable section.
Four of these are really variations of a single net
assessment--the Chairman's Military Net Assessment--and the fifth
is a net technical assessment dealing with low observable
technology. Although the plan mentions weapons systems net
assessments, DoD elects not to address any weapons systems net
assessments "initially,". This may cause some problem, as we
understood weapons systems net assessments were the real focus of
Nunn's interest. The choice of net assessments is, however,
really DoD's call and the Intelligence Community probably has no
basis for questioning it.
In reality, we believe DoD has no intention of doing weapons
systems net assessments. Instead, DIA has a procedure called
STARs (System Threat Assessment Report) for validating the
service-developed threat evaluations for specific weapons
systems. STARs is a part of the DoD procurement cycle and DoD is
opposed to replacing it with net assessments. Senator Nunn
probably will not accept STARs as a valid substitute for weapons
systems net assessments.
Bottom line is that the Intelligence Community should support the
plan as written.
4. Recommend you concur with the DoD plan as written.
Attachments:
As Stated
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
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ILLEGIB
SUBJECT: DoD Plan for the Conduct of Joint Net Assessments
CONCUR:
Acthig
airman
i411/ot
atio Intelligence Council bate
DepuLy NjeCLOT ror Intelligence
bate
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Date
APPROVED:
7,---
Direc
77 hi.L.(4
igence bate
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
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nATTITT
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. ? ?
SUBJECT: DoD Plan for the Conduct of Joint Net Assessments
NIO/GPF/Budge:fms
Distribution:
Orig - Return to Addressee
1 - DDCI
1 - DDI
1 - AC/NIC
1 - Executive Director
1 - Executive Registry
1 - GPF Net Assessments File
1 - GPF Chrono w/o att
1 Mar 88
ADMINISTRATIVE - INTERNAL USE ONLY
NICO 00780-88 SI-AT
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Central Intelligence Agency
Office of the Deputy Director for Intelligence
2 March 1988
NOTE TO: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
The Nunn ammendment also calls for the
Intelligence Community, "and specifically-the
CIA," to improve its analysis-of how the Soviets
view relative military capabilities. With this
in mind, I think it would be useful to add to
the package the attached statement of what we
plan to undertake this year in the way of "red"
net assessments.
ic ar
Deputy Director for Intelligence
Attachment
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1??011**100"
4 ? 4,-, A , ? ?
100TH CONGRESS REPORT -
1st Session 1 SENATE
100-117
AUTHORIZING APPROPRIATIONS FOR FISCAL YEARS 1988 AND 1989 FOR
INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT, THE INTELLI-
GENCE COMMUNITY STAFF, THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
RETIREMENT AND DISABILITY SYSTEM [CIARDS], AND FOR OTHER
PURPOSES
JULY 17 (legislative day, JUNE 23), 1987.?Ordered to be printed
Mr. NUNN from the Committee on Armed Services,
submitted the following
REPORT
[To accompany S. 1243]
The Committee on Armed Services, to which was referred the
bill (S. 1243) to authorize appropriations for fiscal years 1988 and
1989 for intelligence and intelligence-related activities of the U.S.
Government, the Intelligence Community Staff, and the Central In-
telligence Agency Retirement and Disability System, and for other
purposes, having considered the same, reports favorably thereon
with an amendment and recommends that the bill as amended do
pass.
PURPOSE OF THE BILL
S. 1243 would authorize appropriations and other matters for
Fiscal Year 1988 and 1989 for intelligence activities of the United
States Government, including certain Department of Defense intel-
ligence-related activities within the jurisdiction of the Committee
on Armed Services.
The Select Committee on Intelligence reported out the bill on
May 20, 1987 and it was referred to this Committee under the pro-
vision of Section 3(b) of Senate Resolution 400, 94th Congress for a
period of 30 days.
SCOPE OF COMMITTEE REVIEW
The Committee conducted a detailed review of the intelligence
community budget request for Fiscal Years 1988 and 1989. This
was the first year that the Administration and the Congress consid-
ered budget for the Department of Defense and the intelligence
community is a two-year budget. The purpose of the two-year au-
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thorization is to permit longer range planning within the Executive
Branch, reduce turmoil caused by the annual budget process, and
permit both the Congress and the Executive Branch to concentrate
on issues of oversight and management and reduce the amount of
time spent in the annual budget process.
The Committee has carefully reviewed the report of the Select
Committee on Intelligence and has incorporated the relevant budg-
etary decisions of that Committee in the Defense Authorization Act
for Fiscal Year 1988 and 1989 reported by this Committee on May
5.
AMENDMENTS AND OTHER MEASURES
The committee has considered and adopted one amendment and
two additional measures.
COMMUNICATIONS SECURITY
The Committee supports the recommendation contained in the
classified annex prepared by the SSCI that funds should be added
to continue to improve communications security for certain domes-
tic communications.
NET ASSESSMENTS BY THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
Net assessments provide a valuable source of information on the
potential effectiveness of U.S. forces and weapons systems in hypo-
thetical engagements with adversaries. In order to conduct such as-
sessments, one requires detailed and accurate information on both
foreign and U.S. weapons systems and tactics.
A small office exists in the Department of Defense to conduct
and coordinate net assessments. This office, separate from the in-
telligence community, relies on data from the intelligence commu-
nity relative to foreign weapons systems, as well as data from the
military services and other DoD organizations on friendly forces.
However, the results of these net assessments have been restricted
primarily to the Secretary of Defense.
Up until 1981, there was some debate as to the extent to which
the intelligence community should conduct or become involved in
net assessments. Some have argued that while the intelligence
community has expertise in foreign weapons systems and tactics, it
lacks the requisite expertise and often the access to necessary data
relative to U.S. forces. Further, it was argued that such analyses
require a commitment of resources beyond what the community
can afford without interfering with the overriding mission of for-
eign assessments. Proponents of intelligence community involve-
ment have pointed out that the expertise and elaborate tools used
by the intelligence community to evaluate and assess effectiveness
of foreign weapons systems are equally applicable to U.S. weapons
?evaluations. Further, the involvement of the Intelligence Commu-
nity would lend greater credibility to the results of net assess-
ments. For example, in the acquisition of weapon systems, the serv-
-,..;ice proponent of a particular weapon has the primary if not sole
responsibility in assessing how well that weapon will perform
against opposing threats.
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In 1981, the Director of Central Intelligence and the Secretary of
Defense agreed that they would jointly conduct net assessments in
selected areas, and that DoD would provide the intelligence com-
munity with data on U.S. forces for use in these analyses. The most
notable activity undertaken pursuant to this agreement to date,
has been a joint net assessment of U.S. and Soviet strategic forces
completed in 1983, and updated in 1985. However, these joint ef-
forts have been very limited in number and scope. These efforts
clearly could and should be expanded.
For example, it would be useful to have an independent net as-
sessment of such strategic systems as the U.S. air-breathing sys-
tems against the Soviet Air Defense systems. This is particularly
important given the well-publicized problems with the B-1B and
the substantial investment yet to come in air breathing systems.
Net assessments of key weapon systems will assist the executive
branch and the Congress in making budgetary and programatic de-
cisions. Currently, the absence of such assessments means that
very important decisions are often made without a complete or in-
dependent assessment of how these systems would fare in actual
combat.
In June 1986, the Packard Commission recommended that the
Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community expand its
net assessment work. Specifically, the Packard Commission recom-
mended that:
At the direction of the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, with the assistance of the other members of
the JCS and the CINCs, and in consultation with the Director of
Central Intelligence, should also prepare a military net assessment
that would:
Provide comparisons of the capabilities and effectiveness of
U.S. military forces with those of potential adversaries for the
Chairman's recommended national military strategy and other
strategy options;
Reflect the military contributions of Allied Forces where ap-
propriate;
Evaluate the risks of the Chairman's recommended national
military strategy and any strategy options that he develops for
the Secretary of Defense and the President; and
Cover the entire five-year planning period.
In the Goldwater-Nichols Defense Reorganization Act of 1986,
the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs was given a new responsibility to
perform "net assessments to determine the capabilities of the
armed forces of the United States and its allies as compared with
those of their potential adversaries" (10 U.S.C. 153(a)(2)(C), as
amended by section 201 of P.L. 99-443.) This responsibility was
added because the Congress believed that the Chairman should also
have an enhanced role in net assessments.
The Committee believes that more involvement in specific net as-
sessments by the Intelligence Community is a prerequisite for
meaningful participation in the overall assessment of the national
military strategy envisioned by the Packard Commission. The Com-
mittee is mindful, however, of the potential impact such involve-
ment may have on resources and believes that intelligence commu-
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nity participation should be structured so as to provide an alterna-
tive source of net assessment information for those Department of
Defense weapons systems or plans judged critical.
Accordingly, the Committee directs the Secretary of Defense and
the Director of Central Intelligence to develop a plan for the con-
duct of net assessments which allow for independent judgments by
the intelligence community. the Committee believes that the fol-
lowing considerations should be taken into account in the develop-
ment of this plan:
Intelligence community net assessments for the Department of
Defense should be restricted to those areas judged critical to the
overall effectiveness of U.S. national security policy, strategy, tac-
tics or specific weapon systems. The plan should specifically identi-
fy and prioritize those areas selected for intelligence community
participation and the reasons why they are judged "critical".
Given the resources associated with complex net assessments, the
conduct of joint net assessments by DoD and the intelligence com-
munity are acceptable. The plan should permit the intelligence
community to have an equal role in establishing the parameters of
the assessment and to arrive at independent conclusions based on
the results. The process used in the preparation of national intelli-
gence estimates is a useful model in this regard, including proce-
dures for reporting dissenting opinions.
The completion of net assessments should be timed so as to pro-
vide maximum value in the decisionmaking process. The plan
should set forth a timetable for initiation and completion of those
net assessments identified for intelligence community participa-
tion.
Net assessments would be particularly valuable to senior officials
involved in national security policy outside the Department of De-
fense in both the Executive Branch and Congress. The plan should
provide a mechanism for dissemination of information on the re-
sults of net assessments to such officials. Further, appropriate
senior officials should be consulted in the selection and prioritiza-
tion of areas to be the subject of net assessments.
Furthermore, the Committee encourages the Intelligence Com-
munity, and specifically the CIA, to improve its analysis of how the
Soviets view 'the correlation of forces," which is the Soviet term
analagous to net assessments.
The Committee requests that the plan be provided to the Armed
Services, Intelligence, and Appropriations Committees of the House
and Senate no later than March 1, 1988 with an implementation
date as soon thereafter as practical but no later than October 1,
1988. The Committee will assess the plan as a basis for any further
action in this area deemed appropriate.
UNDISTRIBUTED REDUCTIONS AND THE NATIONAL FOREIGN
INTELLIGENCE PROGRAM
The Committee is concerned about the impact on the National
'Foreign Intelligence Program of undistributed reductions in the
1Department of Defense Authorization which might be required as a
result of Congressional action. It is the intent of the committee
that undistributed reductions applied in the Fiscal Year 1988 and
5
Fiscal Year 1989 Department of Defense Authorization Act to ap-
propriations accounts of the Department of Defense shall not be ap-
plied to elements of the National Foreign Intelligence Program
contained in those accounts.
COMMITTEE ACTION
On July 14, 1987 the Committee on Armed Services approved the
bill as amended and ordered it favorably reported.
EVALUATION OF REGULATORY IMPACT
In accordance with paragraph 11(b) of Rule XXVI of the Stand-
ing Rules of the Committee, the Committee finds no regulatory
impact will be incurred in implementing the provisions of this leg-
islation.
CHANGES IN EXISTING LAW
In the opinion of the Committee, it is necessary to dispense with
the requirements of Rule 12 of Rule XXVI of the Standing Rules of
the Senate in order to expedite the business of the Senate.
0
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MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Subject: Intelligence Community Support of Net hnsessment
The enclosed plan for Intelligence Community support of
DOD net assessments and the letters of transmittal to
committee chairman have been prepared in response to a
requirement included in the Intelligence Authorization Act
fbt Fiscal Year 1988. The plan and letters of transmittal
have the agreement of the members of the DOD Net Assessment
Coordinating Committee.
Request your approval and signature on th* stnclosed
letters.
-RICHARD L. ARMITAGE
Asnistant Secretary of Defense
(International Security Atfairs)
ROBERT W. RISCASSI
Lieutenant General, USA
Director, Joint Staff
3
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Dear (Chairman, SRC, SSCI, SAC, HASC,
HAC
The Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 1986
Conference Report requeate that the Secretary of Defense and the
Director of Central Intelligence provide a plan for the conduct of
net assessments which allow for independent judge-tete/As by the
Intelligence Community.
The JCS 1987 Military Net Assessment and other previous OSD net
.assesement studies have historically used extensive input from the
Intelligence Community. On September 6, 1987 Admiral Crowe and
Judge,Webster agreed to formalize & plan for Intelligence Community,
support of JCS Net Assessmeu%.a.
'Enclosed is our plan for Intelligence Community participation in
net assensments. Admiral Crowe agrees with this plan.
Sincerely yours,-
FRANK C. CARLUCCI WILLIA.M a. WEBSTER
Secretary of Defense Director of Central intelligence
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.PLAN FOR INTELLIGENCE COMMINITY SUPPORT OF NET ASSESSMENTS
? 1. The Secretary of Defense and the Director of Central Intelligence
establish this plan which provides for the full participation of the
Intelligence Community in DOD net assessments. The Intelligence
ComMunity will:
- participate in the developeent of requirements for,
- participate in the establishment of parameters for,
- provide coordinated intelligence, and
- participate in the conduct of
net aesessments by the Department of Defense. The Intelligence
Community will review, and comment on net assessments prior to
dissemination external to the Executive Branch, and will have the
right to present independent conclusions based on its review of the
results.
2. Community-agreed intelligence data bases and assessments will be
used for net assessments whese possible. However, where the
intelligence input to net assessments is new or comprises material at
variance with earlier Community views, coordination shall ba conducted
by -a working group consisting of representatives of all interested
membees of the Intelligence Community. Coordination will normally be
conducted in a manner similar to that for National Inteiiinence
Estimates (NIEs).
.a. The Intelligence Community will participate in net assessments with
DOD/JCS in areas critical to the overall effectiveness of US national
security policy, strategy, tactics, and weapons wastams. laitialtsa
these net assessments will include such areas as:
a. Total military capabilities. These esseeementa will inclnde en
analysis of military functional capabllitles across tae spectrum of
warfare including conventional, strategic ngclear, nonstrategic
nuclear and CBW. Other military capabilities will ba analyted,
including: intelligence, sustainability, mobility, electronic
warfare, special operations forcet, reserve foices, command,
control, and communications, and lender:4)/p., swra7:a, ana
b. Regional_politico-military balances. These asseassents stil
analyze the capability of the US and its alliee tu achieve tegional
objectives versus the capabilities of an advertaty, ntincipallai the
Soviet Union and its allies. Those balances may also take into
account significant regional sub-balances e.g., North KOrea/South
Korea).
c. Joint technical net assessments. These assessments will analyze
the standing of US and allied R & D at torts relative to those of
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the Soviet Union in key military and technology areas, such es low
observable technology, new explosives, and directed energy welepone.
These areas are critical as they are fiindamental to current. and future.
fore* planning arta national strateay as sat forth in USD? 236. the
National Security Strategy, and the Detense Guidance.
4. The time table for initiation an completirwn of net assessments
identified for Intelligence Community participation -over the next two
yeers is as follows:
1986 JCS Net Assessment (Unclassified Document)
Commence: I March 1988 Complete: 30 September 1988
interim 1989 Military Net Astessment
Commence: 1 November 1987 Complete: 30 October 1986
1986 Joint Technical Net ASsessment, Low Observable Technology
Commence: 1 April 1988 Complete: 1 December 1988
C>
1989 Military Net Assessment
Commence: 1 November 1987 Complete: 30 June 1989
1989 JCS Net Assessment (Unclassified Document)
Commence: 1 October 1988 Complete: 30 September 1989
S. Dissemination of these net -assessments Shall include those senior.
Aofficials involved in national security policy in both the Executive-.
branch and to the followinn committees of the Congress Senate -Armed'
Services Committee. Senate Select Ccamittee vs Intelligence% Senate
Appropriations Committee, House Armed Services Committee, nous. Selec
Comeittee on Intelligence, and the House Appropriation& Committem
6. Implementation of the above plan has commenced. and will be fully
implementea by 1 October 1988.
2
#1.
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Central Intelligence Agency
Washington. D. C 20505
Admiral William J. Crowe, Jr.
Chairman
Joint Chiefs of Staff
Washington, D.C. 20301
Dear Bill:
Q8 SEP 1'987
Thank you very much for your letter inviting Intelligence Community
participation in net assessments conducted by the Joint Chiefs of
Staff. I agree with you completely that joint net assessments are the
preferred alternative to any type of unilateral net assessments. While
the Nunn Amendment will require the expenditure of additional analytical
resources throughout the Intelligence Community, I believe that the
requirements contained therein are workable, particularly in close
concert with the Department of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
I have designated Major General Larry D. Budge, the National
Intelligence Officer for General Purpose Forces, as my point of contact
within the Intelligence Community to develop arrangements for conducting
joint net assessments with the Department of Defense and the Joint
Chiefs of Staff. I would suggest that your staff contact him and that
together they develop the arrangements which you and I can then approve
at a later date.
I enjoyed our visit and look forward to meeting again.
Sincerely yours,
/s/ William FL Webster
William H. Webster ?
Director of Central Intelligence
r1
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..)eput Director for Intelligence
\Lq.,zr
2 March 1988
NOTE TO: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
The Nunn ammendment also calls for the
Intelligence Community, "and specifically the
CIA," to improve its analysis of how the Soviets
view relative military capabilities. With this
in mind, I think it would be useful to add to
the package the attached statement of what we
plan to undertake this year in the way of "red"
net assessments.
xicnara J. xerr
Deputy Director for Intelligence
Attachment
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/02/27
: CIA-RDP90G01353R001800200008-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/02/27: CIA-RDP90G01353R001800200008-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/02/27: CIA-RDP90G01353R001800200008-7
25X1