NOTE FOR THE DIRECTOR FROM E. H. KNOCHE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01133A000800020002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 29, 2006
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: November 10, 1975
• Content Type: NOTES

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/26: CIA-RDP80M01133A000800020002-7
INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY STAFF
10 November 1975
NOTE FOR THE DIRECTOR
Attached is a word sketch of what is being
developed for your NFIPR.
The theme is focussed basically on
- Our continuing campair a.o.inst
inflation,
EXECTItiVe? r,c413try
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Ways to continually impr?OV-e--
gence performance and produ
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Substantive probleips, t
by intelligence in t
How we witil get tlier
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
OVERVIEW AND BUDGET RECOMMENDATION
Accomplishments - 1975
Trends and Highlights for Intelligence
Resources
PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS
Collection and Processing
Analysis and Production
Research and Development
Manpower
Intelligence-Related Activities
Performance Evaluation
SPECIFIC ISSUES OF CONCERN
CONCLUSION
Attachments
Schedules
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OUTLINE
OVERVIEW AND BUDGET RECOMMENDATION
Major problems facing the Intelligence Community.
- the practicalities of our national economic situation,
- the enlarged pressures on US foreign policy in a world of
growing complexity,
- the impact of intelligence "exposure" lv
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How we propose to deal with the problems and in a cost-effective
way, raise our intelligence capabilities and efficiencies against a more
dynamic global environment.
- Technologies (our continuing commitment to continued
development of "technical tools").
- Developing a better balance of resources along with
higher productivity.
What it will take .... the Budget Recommendation (a specific level
for FY 1977 and estimates for each of the four years that follow).
Accomplishments
"What are we getting from intelligence that is worth the investment
of $ billions annually?"
Example: A SAL agreement to stem the arms race (and
prevent exhorbitant costs) would not have been possible
without an intelligence capability to monitor Soviet
compliance at only a portion of total NFIP cost.
Example: Our intelligence systems "pay" once again in
what we learn secretly of our adversaries successes and
failures in Ilighezrost technology developments- straring
us costs _t find it that -somet#in_g wcs or
conversely, we gamble-oAr iespentIe)30 we Isriow
that Suc4ss was ?aaieved: ? ?
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A LLL W. ()mei accompusnments
- monitoring of Mid-East (Egypt-Israel) situation that helped
toward successful diplomatic negotiations;
- better knowledge of Soviet crops than was available
In 1974; and
- better tracking of oil monies. -4-
Completed studies on ...
recent changes in Soviet military planning for Europe;
- costs of defense spending to the Soviet pe..o2alet-
- curr_ent dollar cost eompariso of Soviet ar iQUS
Defense tkctivities;
- evolving political situation in China and most probable
developments after Mao;
- next steps in the Middle East;
- and other studies on Spain, Yugoslavia, Italy,
Cambodia as well as forecasting of economic trends
in major industrial countries.
Resource Management Accomplishments
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ILLEGIB
- a listing of several ... consolidations for economy ...
better information derived on performance measures toward
enhancing productivity ... more bargaining and stringent
criteria in the development of national programs for Imagery,
SIGINT, and Human Source Collection toward a stronger
national intelligence stragegv program on target
? ? ? progress ... improved guidance
for economic intelligence collection ... review and assessment _
of intelligence product qualities (with recommendations for
improvement) ... and others.
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ILLEGIB
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1LLEGIB
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Trends
and Highlights for Intelligence -
: CIA-RDP80M01133A000800020002-7
- The future threat ... world-wide general threat will rise in
the late '70s to outweigh the specific and undiminished threat
of Soviet high technology.
- Economics will rise to a commanding influence in national
decisions around the world.
- Specific threat--Soviet spending continues to rise in its
strategic military posture--doubled since 1965 with 20 per-
cent increase in manpower over the same period (spending
nearly 50 percent more than US today).
- new factors for intelligence to take into
span a wider range of interdisciplinary
political, military, economic, scientific,
logical, etc.
account that will
concerns, i.e.,
cultural, socio-
- predictables--the passing of Mao and Brezhnev from the
political scene--Yugoslavia after Tito. Unpredictables
resulting from new leaderships affected by economic
upheavals.
- Spread of nuclear capabilities and at cost levels that
permit acquisition by terrorists.
- A condensed listing of substantive concerns as they
appeared in "Perspectives for 1976-1981."
Resources (The current resource picture is being developed in relation
to IRAC outcome and '76 budget deliberations on the Hill).nC/UIL
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The NFIP has come to be an
division of labor and assets:
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The reason: higher costs inherent to "technical" systems and technologies
in general.
Dangers to our higher cost technical assets as a result of "exposure
inviting targets for major savings in the federal appropriations pro as,
and advancement in similar technologies by our foreign adversaries.
Longer range dangers can result if our current "building blocks" for the
future are pruned too deeply or cut away
etc.
Payoff values of our technical inventory and the importance of one
system to the total of systems. The risI of not being able to access
information in denied areas of the wor
The simple power of their existence (known or suspected) to inhibit
more aggressive threats and deployments by our foreign adversarie
Their value as springboards to higher technologies and intelligence
capabilities.
The breadth, volume, and precisions of information that we now
acquire from technical tools in space, underwater, and on the rroun,f
Collection and Processing
Photo Satellite Reconnaissance:
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add to our intelligence capabilities, especially for warning and
indications intelligence. What is possible with an
Satellite and how these advahcements could retire older systems.
The Imaging systems cost trend and forecast.
--
SIGINT Systems:
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The prolific producer. Types of information acquired by type
of system and the need to keep them flying--as well as the need
to develop better capabilities. Recommendation for each SIGINT
25X1 system-- The processing
impact of increased foreign commo traffic around the world?nearly
doubling every five years-- --the
cryptologic and linguistic problems--the National SIGINT Plan.
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Other Technical: (Aircraft and other mobile sensors)--not
developed yet.
Human Source Collection: (in work now)
Analysis and Production (to be developed)
Research and Development
Status of IR&D Council Progress. New targets for FY 77--
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Trend more toward analysis and production than in collection.
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Manpower
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Loss of full careers in inte.1.1Nigence ,,stork ha becom_e_,a larger part
of our nprmal aktrition. Canna be replaced readiiy at any price.
Lean manpower levels lessen opportunity to take away from the
job for needed training courses. 25X1
requires even higher competence
in analytic capabilities--deeper insights to foreign cultures.
foreign languages capabilities, linguistics skills, and more
knowledge of more topics. Need in the future for new mix of
talents and skills. Need for more interpretive, estimative assess-
m9nts of foreign trends, and other needs. Wt wdi in.t subs qa wax-
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Intelligence-Related Activities
Performance Evaluation
Deeper self-examination by the Community since 1972--on-going
Greater scrutiny of intelligence performance by President and
Congress in their efforts to curb the rate of federal spending
against the effects of inflation. And, a most thorough examination
still underway inthe Congress as a result of the public concern
on intelligence.
Tools developed over the past couple of years to measure better
our performance and productivity are now paying off--KEP, for one.
Substantive quality of our products are improving as a result of
our more complete review and assessment of all products.
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I ;AT rit I
SPECIFIC ISSUES OF CONCERN
(In work)
CONCLUSION
(To be done when all else is done)
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