NET ASSESSMENT PLANS: AN UPDATE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90M00005R000300090005-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 14, 2011
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: March 8, 1988
• Content Type: MEMO

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8 March 1988
ocA n~6s-a~
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution
THROUGH: Douglas J. MacEachin
Director of Soviet Analysis
FROM
e ra eg c Evaluation Division
Strategic Issues Group
SUBJECT: Net Assessment Plans: An Update
1. The DCI and Secretary of Defense will submit to Congress this week
their formal response to the "Nunn amendment" (see Attachment A). The
legislation requires the Intelligence Community to conduct military net
assessments (and required a formal plan by 1 March).
-- The formal response proposes to involve the Intelligence
Community in military net assessments that will be conducted
primarily by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
-- It pro poses five studies. Four are variations on the 1989
Military Net Assessment of the Chairman, JCS. The fifth is
a Technical Net Assessment on low observables.
We expect) thit Congress will accept this plan and ask for. additional
detail.
2. The DCI has chosen Major General Larry Budge, NIO/GPF, as his
point-of-contact for Intelligence Community involvement in joint DoD/IC
military net assessments.
-- We expect that the NIO/GPF will task DI Offices to support
JCS net assessment work, including to serve on working
groups .
-- The hI0/GPF probably also will ask DI Offices to provide
representatives or points-of-contact for coordination
tasks. ~~
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3. The "Nunn amendment" also calls for greater effort on the part
of the Intelligence Community, "and specifically the CIA," to assess
Soviet views of relative military capabilities. In a separate
coaanunication to Congress, the DCI sill state that the CIA will produce
special "red" (Soviet-view) net assessment studies during FY 1989 and
beyond (see attachment B). These studies would represent efforts beyond
CIA's support to point DoD/IC 'net assessments. S~JVA and OSWR presumably
will be responsible for these studies within the FY 1989 Research
Program. _,
Attachments:
A. DCI/SecDef Plan for IC Support of Net Assessments
B. DCI statement on special net assessment studies
beyond CIA's support to point DoD/IC net assessments.
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CONFIDENTIAL
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Distribution:
1 - D/OSNR
1 - D/EURA
1 - D/NESA
1 - D/OEA
1 - D/ALA
1 - D/COMPT
~1 - D/BONA
1 - Ch/RIG
1 - Ch/RIG/TFD
7 - Ch/SIG
1 - Ch/SIG/SPD
1 ea - SIG BCs
1 ea - RIG/T
SOVA/SIG/SED
(8 Mar 88)
CONFIDENTIAL
STAT
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Calenda~ .lo. 247
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I00-IIT
AUTHORIZING APPROPRIATIONS FOR FISCAL YEARS 1988 AND 1989 FOR
INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITIES OF THE US. GOVERNMENT, THE tIr'TELLI-
GENCE ~~~ STAFF THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
~~~ AND DLSABII.1~'I'1f SYSTEM [CIARD6), AND FOR OTHER
.lv~r 17 (IaEislative day,.lvNC Y31, 1987.--0rdeeed to be printed
Mr. Ntrxx from the Committee on Armed Services,
submitted the following
REPORT
(To accompany S. 12431
The Commttee on Armed Services, to which was referred the
bill (S. 1243) to authorize appropriations for fiscal years 1988 and
1989 for intelligence and intelligence-related activities of the U.S.
Government, the Intelligence Community Staff, and the Central In-
..~'~,~+I~~'~~'"?.~?~'~~?~'~-'~'~3 telligence Agency Retirement and Disability System, and for other
purposes, having considered the same, reports favorably thereon
with an amendment and recommends that the bill as amended do
pass.
PUAPO6E OF THE BILL
S. 1243 would authorize appropriations and other matters for
Fiscal Year 1988 and 1989 for Intelligence activities of the United
States Government, including certain Department of Defense intel-
ligence-related activities within the jurisdiction of the Committee
on Armed Services.
The Select Committee on Intelligence reported out the bill on
May 20, 198? and it was referred to this Committee under the pro-
vislon of Section 3(b) of Senate Resolution 400, 94th Congress for a
period of 30 days.
SCOPE OF COMMITTEE REVIEW
The Committee conducted a detailed review of the intelligence
community budget request for Fiscal Years 1988 and 1989. This
was the first year that the Administration and the Congress consid-
ered budget for the Department of Defense and the intelligence
community is a two-year budget. The purpose of the two-year au-
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thorization is to permit longer range planning within the Executive
Branch, reduce turmoil caused by the annual budget process. and
permit both the Congress and the Executive Branch to concentrate
on issues of oversight and management and reduce the amount of
time spent in the annual budget process.
The Committee has carefully reviewed the report of the Select
Committee on Intelligence and has incorporated the relevant budg-
etary decisions of that Committee in the Defense Authorization Act
for Fiscal Year 1988 and 1989 reported by this Committee on May
5.
AMENOMENTB AND OTHER MF.ASURF.S
The committee has considered and adopted one amendment and
two additional measures.
COMMVNICATIONS SECURITY
The Committee supports the recommendation contained in the
classified annex prepared by the SSCI that funds should be added
to continue to improve communications security for certain domes-
tic communications.
NET A88E8aMENT9 BY THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNrrY
Net assessments provide a valuable source of information on the
potential efi'ectiveneee of U.S. forces and weapons- systems in hypo-
thetical engagements with adversaries. in order to conduct such as-
sessments, one requires detailed and accurate information on both
foreign and U.S. weapons systems and tactics.
A small office exists in the Department of Defense to conduct
and coordinate net assessments. This office, separate from the in-
telligence community, relies on data from the intelligence commu-
nity relative to foreign weapons systems, as well as data from the
military services and other DoD organizations on friendly forces.
However, the results of these net assessments have been restricted
primarily to the Secretary of Defense.
Up until 1981, there was some debate as to the extent to which
the intelligence community should conduct or become involved in
net assessments. Some have argued that while the intelligence
community has expertise in foreign weapons systems and lattice, it
lacks the requisite expertise and often the access to necessary data
relative to U.S. forces. Further, it was argued that such analyses
require a commitment of resources beyond what the community
can afford without interfering with the overriding mission of for-
eign aRResements. Proponents of intelligence community involve-
ment have pointed out that the expertise and elaborate tools used
by the intelligence community to evaluate and assess eRectivenees
of foreign weapons systems are equally applicable to U.S. weapons
evaluations. Further, the involvement of the Intelligence Commu-
nity would lend greater credibility to the results of net seeees-
mente. For example, in the acquisition of weapon systems, the serv-
ice proponent of a particular weapon has the primary if not sole
rFRponribility in asR~RRing how well that weapon will perform
nt~ninst. ~1~nnain~ t,hrr;~ts.
In 1981, the Director of Central intelligence end the Secretary of
Defense agreed that they would jointly conduct net asse~menls in
selected areas, and that DoD would provide the intelli~nce com?
munity with data on U.S. forces for use in there annlystc. TIi~ most
notable activity undertaken pursuant to this agreement to date.
has been a joint net aaeessment of U.S. and Soviet strategic forcer
completed in 1983, and updated in 1985. However. these joint ef-
torts have been very limited in number and scope. These pffortr
clearly could and should be expanded.
For example, it would be useful to have an independent net sa-
sesement of such strategic systems as the U.S. air?bremthinq sys?
terra against the Soviet Air Defense systems. This is p:irticulsrly
important given the well-publicized problems with the 8-ld end
the substantial investment yet to come in aid breathing systems.
Net assessments of key weapon systems will assist the executive
branch and the Congress in making budgetary and programatic de-
cisions. Currently, .the absence of such assessments means that
very important decisions are oRen made without a complete or in-
dependent assessment of how these systems would fare in actual
combat. '
In June 1986, the Paeksrd Commission recommended that the
Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community expand its
net assessment work. Specifically, the Packard Commission recom-
mended that:
At the direction of the Secretary of Defense. the Chairman of the
Joint Ghiefs of 3tafr, with the assistance of the other members of
the JCS and the CINCs, and in consultation with the Director of
Central intelligence, should also prepare a military net asseeament '.
that would:
Provide tom nsons of the ca bilities and eRectiveness of
U.S. military foarces with those of teal advenssriea for the
Chairman's recommended nations military strategy and other
strategy options;
Reflect the military contributions of Allied Forces where sp?
pro~riate;
Evaluate the risks of the Chairman's recommended national
military strategy and any strategy options that he develops for
the Secretary of Defense and the President; and
Cover the entire Poe-year planning period.
in the Goldwater-Nichols Defense Reorganization Act of 1986.
the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs was given a new resporiaibility to
perform "net assessments to determine the capabi it ties of the
armed forces of the United States and its allies ss compared with
those of their potential adversaries" (10 U.S.C. 15.'I(aN21(CI. w.
amended by section ZO1 of P.L. 99-443.) This responaibilit was
added because the Congress believed that the Chairman should ciao
have en enhanced role in net assessments.
The Committee believes that more involvement in specific net ss-
seeemente by the intelligence Community is a prerequisite for
meaningful participation in the overall eseeaetnent of the national
military strategy envisioned by the Packard Commission. The Com-
mittee is mindful, however. of the potential impact such involve-
ment may have on resources and believes that intelligence cominu-
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nity participation should be structured so as to provide en alterna-
tive source of net assessment. information for those Department of
Defense weapons systems or plans judged critical.
Accordingly, the Committee directs the Secretary of Defense and
the Director of Central Intelligence to develop a plan for the con-
duct of net assessments which allow for independent judgments byy
the intelligence community. the Committee believes that the fol-
lowing considerations should be taken into account in the develop-
ment of this plan:
]ntelligence community net asse~llmenGl for the Impartment of
Defense should be restricted to those areas judged critical to the
overall effectiveness of U.S. national security policy, etrateg~-, tac-
tics or specific weapon systems. The plan should specifically Identi-
fy and prioritize those areas selected for intelligence community
participation and the reasons why they are 'udged "critical".
Given the resources aseociafed with comp~ex net assessments, the
conduct of joint net assessments by DoD and the intelligence com-
munity, are acceptable. The plan should permit the intelligence
community to have an equal role in establishing the parameters of
the assessment and to arrive at independent conclusions based on
the results. The process used in the preparation of national intelli-
gence estimates is a useful model in this regard, including proce-
dures for reporting dissenting opinions.
The completion of net aeeeeements should be timed so as to pro-
vide maximum value in the deciaionmaking process. The plan
should set forth a timetable for initiation and completion of those
net assessments identified for intelligence community participa-
tion.
Net assessments would be particularly valuable to senior officials
involved in national security policy outside the De rtment of De-
fense in both the Executive Branch and Congre~. The plan should
provide a mechanism for dissemination of information on the re-
sults of net assessments to ouch officials. Further. appropriate
senior offcials should be consulted in the selection and prioritiza-
tion of areas to be the subject of net assessments.
Furthermore, the Committee encourages the Intelligence Com-
munity. end specifically the CIA, to improve its analysis of how the
Soviets view 'the correlation of forces," which is the Soviet term
analogous to net assessments.
'?'hc C~mmitlee rc~ueAts that, the plan be provided to the Armed
~?~wICe9, intelligence, and Appropriations Committees of the House
and Senate no later than March 1, 1988 with an implementation
date as eoon thereafter as practical but no later than October 1,
1988. The Committee will aiu+esa the plan ae a basis for any further
action in this area deemed appropriate.
UNDIBTRIRUTLD REDUCT10N9 AND THE NATIONAL !'OREIQN
INTELLICENCF. PROGRAM
The Committee is concerned about the impact on the National
Foreign Intelligence Program of undistributed reductions in the
Department of Defense Authorization which might be required ae a
result of ConRresgional action. It is the intent of the committee
that undistributed reductions applied in the Fiscal Year 1988 and
Fiscal Year 1989 Department of Defense Authorization Act. to -
propriations accounts of the Dl~parlment of Defense eh:tll not t>p
plied to elements of the National Foreign Intellipence 1'r~~r,
contained in those accounts.
COMMITTEE ACTION
On July 14, 1987 the Committee on Armed Services approved t'
bill as amended and ordered it favorably reported.
FVAI.UATIAN nr R/YtU1.ATORY IMPACT
In accordance with paragraph 11(bl of Rule XXVI of the Stan
ins Rules of the Committee. the Committee finds no re~gulato~
impact will be incurred in implementing the provisions of this Ic;
illation.
CHANCP.S tN EXISTING LAa-
In the opinion of the Committee. it is necessary- to dispPnx wi'
the requirements of Rule I'l of Rule XXVi.ot the Standing Rules
the Senate in order to expedite the bilsineas of the Senafc.
O
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NOTE T0: DCI
FROM: Dick Kerr
The Nunn ammendment also calls for tiie
Intelligence Community, "and specifically
the CIA," to improve its analysis of how
the Soviets view relative military capabilities.
With this in mind, I think it would be useful
to add to the package the attached state~~ent
of what we plan to undertake this :?eer in tt~e
way of "red"'.net assessments.
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n
o s er the Soviet view of relative military capabilities and the
implications of this view for US policies:
-- SSBN Survivability. We will analyze Soviet views on the
survivability of US and Soviet SSBNs during a conventional
conflict. The analysis will cover the next 10 years nd address
implications for. US and Soviet force plans, such as U~
development of attack submarines.
-- Strategic Nuclear Strike Capabilities. We will assess Soviet
views on US and Soviet capabilities for strategic Nuclear
warfare. The analysis will cover the next~l0 years and address
arms control and deployment issues.
-- Conventional Air War in Central Europe. We will depict Soviet
views on air warfare capabilities 'in the first daYS of a
conventional conflict in central Europe. The anal~lsis will
cover the next 10 years and address force deployment issues,
such as tactical fighter deployment plans.
We chose these three topics because they clearly are relevant to US
policy decisions and because they build on considerable work that
already has taken place in our research program. In addition to these
analyses, we will conduct selected technical net assessments of spPCific
. weapons' capabilities. We will consult other agencies in the course of
our analyses and we will offer our studies as contributions to joint
military net assessments undert by the OJCS and NIO/GPF, who could
incorporate alternative views.
We also propose to pursue additional net assessment projects during
FY 1990/91. We recently submitted a New Initiative in part because we
anticipate future studies of this type will not easily derive from prior
accomplishments in our normal research program. And we believe that
Congress wants a continuing effort along these lines.
The CIA believes that analyses of the Soviet view of relative military
capabilities should weigh heavily in military net assessments that consider
the deterrent value of US forces. Accordingly, and in response~to recent
legislation, Me propose that the CIA pursue at least three research projects
in FY 1989 to produce special "red" net assessment studies, each of which
would c
id
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