PROCEDURES FOR PRODUCTION OF INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP93T01132R000100020014-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 27, 2012
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: July 27, 1981
• Content Type: REPORT

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27 July 1981
PROCEDURES FOR PRODUCTION OF
INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENTS
This Notice establishes samo guidelines for production of interagency
intelligence assessments, based on the experience to date of the National
Intelligence Council (NIC), and on recent critiques of existing procedures.
Policy
National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs and SNIEs) are the most
important product of the Intelligence Community and should be given the
highest priority by all intelligence agencies. They will again become the
primary Intelligence Community contribution to the policy formulation
process at the national level. (Interagency Intelligence Memoranda will
continue to be produced as before, on occasions when the paramount intelli-
gence task is the reaching of factual determinations. See Page 5.)
The principal purpose of these changes
--To produce NIEs and SNIEs which are better suited than
are existing estimates for NSC and Cabinet-level examination
and consideration, while preserving their usefulness for
other important consumers
--To assist senior policymakers by producing interagency
assessments which are less bulky -- and to do so quicker.
--To improve the substantive usefulness of such assessments
to the policy process.
--To enhance senior review within the Intelligence Community by
engaging the DCI and the other NFIB principals more fully in
arriving at the judgments set out in these assessments.
Categories of Estimates
Special National Intelligence Estimates will be oriented to a current
event or policy issue. The need for such estimates will normally arise
from the policy formulation process. To be useful, they must be brief and
timely. Papers directed at relatively narrow questions and on particularly
short deadlines will normally be produced as "Category A" SNIEs. This
category includes "Contingency" estimates, e.g., "What would be the reaction
if the US did X?" There will also be broader "Category B" SNIEs, particularly
In the political and economic fields, that require expeditious handling.
Production of SNIEs will be governed by the "fast track" procedures discussed
below (page 2).
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National Intelligence Estimates will also fall in two Categories.
"Category I" NIEs will be those devoted to less pressing policy concerns.
e.g., Yugoslavia After Tito. Papers in this category will take somewhat
longer to prepare than those tied to more immediate issues, and may
Include extensive back-up analysis. Production will be governed by more
deliberate procedures (see page 3). The number of Category I NIEs should
decrease in coming months as the number of SNIEs increases. The major
periodic estimates, including the Soviet military series, will be listed
as Category II NIEs. They will be produced on a schedule approved by
the DCI after consultation with NFIB (see page 4).
Content of NIEs and SNIEs
In preparing estimates, Principals, Chairmen, and drafters shall
assure that drafts:
--Are as directly relevant to ongoing policy concerns as
possible, within the ground rules of appropriate discussion
by intelligence officers. They should be written in aware-
ness of the US role in the given situations, analyze the
degree to which these situations may be susceptible to the
influence of the US or its friends, and address the
significance of various outcomes for US interests.
--Contain as much estimative thrust as possible, including
where appropriate possible alternative future developments.
--Integrate political, military, economic and other factors--
especially with respect to economic forces and to the broader
political purposes of military power.
--Avoid secondary issues and unnecessary detail.
--Contain, as has been the practice, any alternative or
dissenting views.
--Indicate the validity of the intelligence supporting the
estimate.
Fast-Track Procedures for SNIEs
Initiation: Preparation of SNIEs may be proposed to the DCI by any
senior officer, although the concerned NIO is expected to anticipate the
need for such estimates through his participation in the policy formulation
process. If the DCI approves a proposal, the Chairman NIC will immediately
notify NFIB Principals by telephone or LOX, designating an NIO as Chairman
of the estimate and requesting that each Principal name a single qualified
officer fully empowered to represent him in the coordination process.
Representatives should have access to and be able to speak for their Principal.
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Terms of Reference (TORs)/Concept Papers: The Estimate Chairman
will immediately prepare draft TORS and a concept paper, check them out
with the requester and the DCI, and coordinate them with the representatives
by telephone and LDX. For Category A SNIEs, these steps should take no more
than 24 hours, for Category 13, no more than 3 days.
Drafting Responsibilities: The Chairman will in the course of
establishing TORs negotiate with the representatives to identify drafters
and contributors who are both qualified and available. It will be the
responsibility of the Principals to free assigned drafters and contributors
from conflicting duties until the draft is completed. For Category A this
should regularly require no more than 2 days, for Category B, 5 days.
Format: The SNIE will regularly run no more than 5 pages for
Category A and 10 for Category B. Where essential, annexes may be appended.
Coordination: When the Chairman has a satisfactory draft, he will
distribute it to the representatives for coordination, normally by LDX.
Representatives should immediately seek the views of their Principals.
For Category A SNIEs, the Chairman will, when time permits, convene a
representatives meeting to coordinate the paper, but in extreme cases will
coordinate by telephone. In any case the time required should not be more
than 2 days. For Category B, representatives will normally meet, and
coordination should be complete in no more than 5 days.
NFIB Consideration: SNIEs will normally be reviewed by the DCI at
this stage. Concurrence of the Principals in Category A SNIEs will then
be obtained by telephone or through a special NFIB meeting within the next
24 hours. Category B SNIEs usually will be considered at a regular NFIB
meeting if conveniently scheduled, or at a special meeting; no more than
3 days should be required.
Category I NIE Procedures
Initiation: NIEs in Category I will normally be proposed by the NIC
and scheduled well in advance, although any NFIB Principal or senior policy
officer may request one. The schedule will be considered by NFIB quarterly
and approved by the DCI. Should an addition to or deletion from the
schedule be proposed. Principals will be given an opportunity to comment
prior to a decision by the DCI. Before work begins on a paper, the Chairman,
NIC is responsible for designating an NIO as Chairman and notifying the
Principals. Each Principal in turn will designate a single qualified officer
fully empowered to represent him in preparation of the estimate.
Terms of Reference/Concept Paper: The Estimate Chairman will prepare
draft TORs and a concept paper. He will assure that before they are sent out
to the agency representatives, these papers have been checked out with the
policy officers concerned and have been submitted to the DCI for his review.
Once these papers go out to the representatives, the latter will be expected
to review them with their Principals before the representatives come to the
coordination meetings. The usual time to be given for such review, prior to
the meetings of the representatives, will be one week. In cases where.
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circumstances warrant significant changes in the initial purpose, scope,
concept, or TORs of a given paper, the Chairman will ensure that these
changes have the approval of the DCI and the NFIB Principals.
Drafting Responsibilities: The Chairman will, in the course of
preparing and coordinating TORs, negotiate with the representatives to
Identify drafting officers and arrange for contributions from individual
agencies. It will be the responsibility of each Principal to ensure that
contributions assigned to his agency are delivered on schedule. Drafts
should regularly be completed within one month.
Format: Each draft Category I NIE will normally consist of the basic
estimate and a shorter Key Judgments section. Both will be coordinated
by the Agency representatives. When published, the first volume of the NIE
will contain only the Key Judgments. Volume I should be no more than 10
printed pages in length. The basic estimate will be published as back-up
analysis in an accompanying Volume II. There will, of course, be occasions
where the length or complexity of the estimate will necessitate variations
on this concept.
Coordination: When the Chairman has a satisfactory draft, he will
distribute it to the representatives. The latter will be given 2 weeks
to consult with their respective Principals on the content of a draft
before the representatives meet for coordination with the paper's Chairman.
The representatives will meet on consecutive working days for as long as
necessary to complete coordination. Discussion at these meetings will
center on ironing out questions of fact, examining the principal assessments
of the given paper, and identifying main areas of agreement or disagreement/
dissent. If major revisions are necessary, there can be a clean-up meeting
to review the final text; new issues will not be raised at clean-up meetings.
Any major issues not resolved at representatives' meetings will be examined
at NFIB by the DCI and the Principals.
NFIB Consideration: Volume I as coordinated by the representatives
(that is, Key Judgments, together with any dissents or unresolved issues)
will go to the DCI for approval and distribution to the Principals, who will
be given at least 7 working days to review the final draft. It will be
scheduled for the next regular meeting of NFIB thereafter. At NFIB, discussion
will center on the estimate's major questions, with any necessary editorial
or minor fixes to be done subsequently under the direction of Chairman, NIC
and the paper's Chairman, as directed at NFIB by the DCI. The Chairman will
also be responsible for conforming a coordinated Volume II to Volume I.
Volume II will be published within one month after Volume I.
Category II (periodic) NIE Procedures
The procedures outlined above for Category I NIEs in general apply also
to Category II. These papers are likely to be longer (sometimes more than
two volumes) and more complex than those in Category I, and arrangements for
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their production may involve an elaborate structure of working groups and
subgroups, DCI Committees, etc. They will also take more time to prepare.
Nonetheless, every effort will be made to move them along expeditiously,
and to keep Volume I concise and policy-oriented. Present production of
periodic NIEs should not be significantly changed under these procedures.
Interagency Intelligence Memoranda (IIM)
The IIM will be prepared in accordance with SNIE or NIE procedures
as appropriate to the issue addressed, except that it will be coordinated
in the Community at the NFIB representatives level and issued by the
Chairman, NIC. Representatives may, of course, seek the approval of their
Principals. An IIM may be referred to NFIB and issued by the DCI if he so
decides, or if requested by a NFIB Principal.
General
These procedures should provide a maximum of one week for the production
of Category A SNIE's, three weeks for Category B SNIE's, and three to four
months for the production of Volume I of Category I and most Category II
NIE's. Principals will, of course, retain their right of dissent in all
cases and categories of estimates, including IIM's.
After NFIB discussion of an SNIE or NIE, the estimate Chairman will
convene.the representatives for a review of and follow-up to the NFIB
proceedings. This meeting should also focus on identifying gaps in
collection or analysis for future emphasis. The Chairman will be responsible
for initiating further action through appropriate channels to fill such gaps.
These procedures may be abridged by C/NIC when an estimate is needed
NOM quickly than they will permit. The only essential conditions are that
each agency have an opportunity to dissent, and that the DCI approve the
final product.
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