IMPACT OF A SOUTH AFRICAN BLOCKADE OF BOTSWANA AND ZAMBIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00874R000300090008-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 28, 2012
• Sequence Number: 8
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
APPENDIX
Impact of a South African Blockade of Botswana and Zambia
Our analysis indicates closure of South African transportation routes
and ports to neighboring black countries would have a substantial
negative impact on the ability of these countries to import and export
goods. For example, forced to use alternative transportation routes,
Botswana would face sharply higher shipping costs -- perhaps as much as
350 percent higher -- for some commodities such as food and fuel. For a
state more removed from South Africa, transport costs would increase
less dramatically; denied-access, to South African ports, Zambia, for
example, would experience a 10 percent rise in the cost of exporting
ore.
These estimates assume that potential alternative routes would in
fact be available to Botswana and Zambia, and map the most cost
efficient alternative routes. The graphics presented as examples,
however, do not take into account the political feasiblity of using such
routes. Obviously insurgent activity, or inadequate transportation
infrastructures, or systems already being used to capacity enter into
the equation. Most notably, the security situation in Angola and
Mozambique would limit the rechanelling of trade along the Benguela
Railway in Angola or through the port of Beira.
CONFITT, NTT A T
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874ROO0300090008-3
Too Gaborone, Botswana
COMMODITY: FOOD
11 2? L 24 E as E 20 E 30 E 32 E 34 E 30 E 38 E 40 E 42 E 44 E
LONGITUDE
Map 1
OUfNTITY MINIMIZMs COST
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874ROO0300090008-3
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3 Map 2
Fr-ems overseas
Tog Gaborone, Bot wana South African links cut
LONG I TUD
OJI fITX MINIMIZE t 5T
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
Map 3
From Overseas
Too Gaborone, Botswana
COMMODITY: FUELS
s fl? is E 20 V F. 2 30 b C 35 h C 400 E 45 C C
LONGITUDE
OUf TITY MINIMIZEDs COST
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
From Overseas
Toe Gaborone, Botswana
COMMODITY FUELS
Map 4
C 35
20
t ITL OE
MHWITY 14INIHIZEDs COST
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
Map 5
Froms Ndola, Zambia
T?$ Overseas
COMMODITY: ORES
e
Se E fl? 15 E 30 E E 30 E 35b C 40 b E 45 E 50 b E
LONGITUDE
OURNTITY MINIMIZEDs COST
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3
Map 6
From: Ndola, Zambia
To: Overseas
w COMMODITY: ORES
LONGITUDE
a r b0 fly C 19 E 25 E 30b E 35b E 40b E
. UURNTITY MINIMIZEDs COST
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/06/28 : CIA-RDP91 B00874R000300090008-3