WILL AMERICAN WORKERS BE READY FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00530R000300620018-7
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 2, 2013
• Sequence Number: 18
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 : CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300620018-7
Will Arnencan,
Workers be Ready
For the 21st Century?
By C. Emily Reis3ritzer
disproportionately made up of mi-
norities. Populations heretofore
overlooked or ignored-because
there were more than' enough
young white males to fill the na-
tion's job demands-are now the
focus of concern about the future
workforce.
Labor Secretary Ann McLaughlin
has said, "As America heads toward
a more demanding skill-intensive
economy, a literate, educated work-
force is essential to our ability to
compete in the world marketplace.
Unless we act now, we will face a
serious shortage of skilled work-
ers." The National Alliance of Busi-
ness has said, in a report called The
Fourth R. Workforce Readiness, ,As
our society ages, and the birthrate
drops, the number of young people
available for work is rapidly declin-
ing. The dwindling numbers will
require that we look for workers
among groups of individuals previ-
ously ignored, and often considered
less ready to work and less produc-
"
tive.
Lost amid the hand-wr
?KU?9,
however, are the tremendous gains
that minorities and women have
made; there are probably no groups
for whom the gains are more strik-
ing. While still below those of white
males, high-school graduation rates,
enrollments in college and univer-
i
s
ties, Scholastic Aptitude Test
(SAT) scores, National Assessment
of Educational Progress (NAEP)
scores and employment rates have
been rising fastest for minorities
__ -------- -------------------- _--- __________-____ ;__
p,ft
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ILL AMERICA produce and women. Lost, too, are certain
ILL h basic facts about the last 25 years
noughs to ompetent that can provide some perspective
nation's needs meet the in the as the nation prepares to enter the
21st century? That question lies at next century.
the heart of the most recent con- In 1965, less than a quarter of a
troversy over this country's edu- century ago, the Civil Rights Act
cational system. According to the was passed. Before that time, most
Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 21 minorities and women-the popu- lations million new workers will be needed be so upon dependent -were sociere will soon
by the year 2000, and the fastest so -were not al-
al-
growing occupations will be those lowed, much less expected, to per-
that require the most educational form at high levels. In 1960, for
preparation. Workforce 2000, a re example, just one in five (20.1 per-
port from the Hudson Institute, cent) of black adults had finished
predicts that ere udrrent avenue high school (as compared with only
skill level of 21- to 25-year-oldsgs 40 percent of adults 25 years and
40 percent lower than the skill-level older in the United States). About a
that will be required of the new fourth percent) of black adults
workers needed by that year. Yet had less than five years of elemen-tary between now and the year 2000
schooling, and only 3.1 percent
h
,
ad
about 80 percent of new workers' ad a college degree.
will be women and minorities By 1986, however, nearly two-
w
b whose n and
group- ill
tradition, thirds (62.3 percent) of black adults
ally have lagged in educational had completed four years of high
achievement. Businessmen, educa- 75 5 percent 7 of more, U.S. omps. A wish
tors and S. adults. Almost
politicians are all con-
cerned. 11 percent of black adults have at
least one college degree. High
The basis of the concern is the school completion rates for His-
simple fact that the natural pool panics-for whom statistics were
from which America has historically not even available until 1970-rose
drawn new workers-young from one-third in 1970 to nearly
adults-is dwindling and becoming half in 1986.
C. Emily Feistritzer is director of the The bottom-line result of this
National Center for Education In- that, access makers education is
formation. , since test makers started
--Continued on page 12
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300620018-7
;rise imti 'number of minority college enrol
i , . , ; 11llJ u~t ~~axd achievement has,aneant.I a 18 Wcjtkers- end -the 21st Cent --__. r
e
RISING ACHIEVEMENT IN MINORITY EDUCATION
HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
Total
U.S. Adults
40%
NQW
COLLEGE E.NROLLMENT*
t
Black Adults Black AdultsMinority
20.1% 62.3%Enrollment
acm
Hispanic Adults Hispanic Adults
32.1% 48.4%
Women
41%
College enrollment figures for minorities and women represent percentages of total college student population
" 1970 minority figure includes Hispanics counted as black and white.
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Educational Statistics
Women
53%
Continued from Page 11
keeping records by race, the greatest gains in
achievement have been among black and His-
panic children. Data from the National As-
sessment of Educational Progress show that
since 1977-78 e most significant improve-
must be adjusted because of the way His-
panics were counted. Overall college enroll-
ment has grown dramatically, even though
the traditional college-age population has
been falling steadily since the late 1970s. En-
rollments in postsecondary institutions rose
ments in reading, writing and mathematics
levels tested have
rad
ll
e
g
scores across a
been among black children.
The College Board data show -that not only
have the numbers and proportions of blacks
and Hispanics taking the SAT risen dramat-
ically since 1976 (when it began reporting
SA'1" data by race), the scores of these minor-
ity groups have shown the most rapid rates of
increase. Since 1982, when SAT scores
started rising again, following a steady de-
cline begun in 1975, the combined math and
"The nation will become
more dependent on
women and minority
workers; at the same
time, [they] will become
verbal scores for whites rose 9 points, where-, better trained and
as the combined score for blacks rose 21
points, though still lagging behind the score educated."'
for whites.
The number of high school students who
take advanced placement courses is rising
sharply. According to College Board Presi-
dent Donald M. Stewart, "Advanced Place-
ment is challenging students in all kinds of
schools, with its greatest growth among
schools serving black, Hispanic and other mi-
nority students. While the total number of
students participating increased -47 percent
from 1984 to 1987, Hispanic participants in-
creased 99 percent, blacks increased 83 per-
cent, and OrientallAsian American partici-
pants increased 85 percent."
from about 8.5 million in 1970 to 12.5 million
in 1986, a 46 percent increase. Eighty per-
cent of this increase was due to women,
three-fourths of them 25 years or older. Wo-
men now make up more than half (53 per-
cent) of college enrollment, compared with
41 percent in 1970.
The results of higher educational attain-
ment for minorities and women are already
paying off for them in the workforce.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
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Total
U.S. Adults
12.5 million
Minority
Enrollment
18%
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 : CIA-RDP90-00530R000300620018-7
 the first quarter of 1988, "Across au
for
;
'ad categories, job growth in the 1980s has
been more rapid for minority workers-
blacks and - persons of Hispanic origin-than
for whites. Much of the employment increase
since 1983, especially among minority work-
ers, has been concentrated in managerial and
professional speciality occupations.... Em-
ployment growth among women, especially
minority women, continued to outpace that of
men in the 1983-87 period. Women experi-
-enced particularly marked increases in man-
agerial and professional jobs."
Labor force participation rates rose in the
last decade for whites and Hispanics across
all educational levels. For blacks, they rose
for those who had four years of high school
and for those who had one to three years of
college. For reasons that are still unclear,
they dropped for blacks with fewer than four
years of high school and for those with four
years of college or more.
It is also true that that the proportion of
black and Hispanic high school graduates who
enroll in a four-year college and finish with a
bachelor's degree a few years later is about
half that of whites. Approximately half of
white high school seniors who were enrolled
full-time in a four-year institution in October
1980 had earned a bachelor's or higher de-
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 : CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300620018-7 1 has at least one college de-
natlve post-secoIluary icatiuiig auu wuin vY-
tionsdoes not foreclose a return to college at
a late date. Nor does it indicate a failure on
the part of the colleges or the black commu-
nity, but rather a modest affirmation of the
growing diversity of options for learning be-
yond high school."
It should be clear, from the above, that
much of this concern about the future of.
America's work force may not be warranted.
The nation will become more dependent on
women and minority workers; at the same
time, women and minority workers will be-
come better trained and better educated.
And, while many worry that there may be too
noted that this may not reflect "an overall
lack of workers, but the declining numbers in
the younger age groups in the labor force." In
fact, the BLS reported, "the workforce of the
future will be older."
This group of older workers may prove
invaluable. Just as the youth population need
not be the exclusive source for all new jobs, it
need not be the exclusive source for those
new jobs that require the highest levels of
education. The nation has been turning out
college degree-holders in record numbers-
1.3 million per year since 1973. One in five
adults 25 years old and older now (nearly 30
Hope for the Bottom Fifth
A NOTHER GROUP on whom atten- first started keeping these statistics in
tion has been focused in recent 1959, the nation had the greatest number
months is one whose members have and highest proportion of children in pov-
been labeled "children at risk"-the "bottom erty to date-17.2 million or 26.9 percent
fifth" of society's children. Members of this of.all children under 18.
group are loosely defined as those children Data show that, while still lagging behind
least likely to succeed in life-society's po- their white suburban counterparts, these
tential drop-outs. They live in poverty, are children at risk are enrolling in school ear-
generally black or Hispanic and live in fam- her, staying in school longer and achieving
ilies headed by their mothers. The percent- more than the children who lived in poverty
age of the population under 18 years living just a decade ago. When given the oppor-
below the poverty level is often cited when tunity and challenged to achieve at high lev-
trying to ascertain the number of children at els by teachers who believe they can learn
risk. In 1986, then, 19.8 percent of children as well as anybody else, studies show they
under 18 (12.2 million) lived below the pov- do. For example, studies by sociologist
erty line-down from 21.8 percent (13.4 James Coleman comparing students at low-
million) in 1983. What is often ignored, - income Catholic schools and at low-income
however, is that when the Census Bureau public schools have shown that students at
gree. The BLS estimates that about one-
fourth of the 27 million college graduates in
the workforce are in jobs that do not require
a college degree. The BLS also, in its latest'
projections concerning America's workforce
by the year 2000, stated: "Despite the faster
than average growth in employment for oc-
cupations requiring a bachelor's or higher
degree, the surplus of college-graduates that
began in the early 1970s is expected to con-
tinue through the end of the century." Thus it
may be that, as American employers seek
better-trained and -educated workers, they
turn to this pool of college graduates. ^
the Catholic schools outperformed their
public school counterparts at all levels.
What Colman and his researchers say is a
contributing factor is that students in the
Catholic schools all take an academic cur-
riculum, and their teachers believe they can
perform at that level. An analysis of student
achievement in reading and math by the
National Assessment of Educational Prog-
ress shows that 90 percent of recent gains
across all age groups can be attributed to
gains among students classified as disadvan-
taged in urban and rural schools. Archie
LaPointe, NAEP director, said the results
are due to society's demands for a "back to
the basics" movement in education. -
-C. Emily Feistritzer
gree by spring 1986. This compares with 26
percent of blacks and Hispanics. Data show
that growing numbers of bright high school
graduates, espcially blacks and Hispanics, are
entering the armed services, businss and in-
dustry, and non-collegiate post-secondary
schools, where the prospects for finding a job
are greater.
But as Solomon Arbeiter, College Board
associate director of research, notes, this is
not necessarily a bad thing. "To select alter-
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 : CIA-RDP90-00530R000300620018-7
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/01/02 : CIA-RDP90-0053OR000300620018-7
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.Crack
Down
Continued from page 5,
abuse and hazing. Nonetheless,
Brant noted there were more re-
ports of hazing incidents last year
than in the previous three years. He
said the figures were disappointing,
but could offer no explanation.
Although contemporary , frater-
nities conjure up images of gross
behavior and nonstop partying as
parodied in the film Animal House,
Brant said the main ideals behind
the Greek system have always been
intellectual and social development,
friendship and mutual assistance;
These lofty goals notwithstand-
ing, Franklin & Marshall spokes-
woman Patricia Lawson said mod-
ern fraternities are no more than
"underage drinking clubs." And ac-
ademically, she said fraternity
members at Franklin & Marshall
had a grade-point average of 2.66,
compared with 2.82 for non-frater-
nity.members.