LETTER TO MR. BRIAN V. KINNEY FROM (SANITIZED)

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CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1
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RIPPUB
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T
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14
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December 23, 2016
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February 7, 2013
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2
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Publication Date: 
April 22, 1982
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LETTER
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CENTRAL INT?ELLIG E'F& AGF4CY Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 ,Nov llaV SECRET W 22 April I9 Mr. Brian V. Kinney Chief, Declassification and Historical Research Branch Records Management Division Washington Headquarters Services Room 1D517, Pentagon Washington, D.C. 20301 Dear Mr. Kinney: In response to the letter of 1 April 1982 from the OSD Records Administrator, we have reviewed the six attachments thereto, under the provisions of paragraph 3-401, Executive Order 12065, with the following findings: a. CIA has no objection to declassification of the following: (1) Paper, Undated, Subj: Intelligence on Attitudes of Afghanistan Government Toward Middle East Regional Defense Pact and Soviet Communism; (2) Paper, 22 Mar 54, Subj: CIA Proposed Amendment to Draft. Conclusions Re Agricultural Surpluses; and (3) Paper, 17 Mar 54, Subj: Surplus or Deficit Position of Various Countries in Major Agricultural Commodities Available for Export from the United States/w 1 Attachment--Chart, EIC-P-9. b. CIA has no objection to declassification of the following provided the Department of State concurs: (1) Paper, Undated, Subj: Possible U. S. Courses of Action With Regard to Afghanistan; (2) Paper, 25 Jan 54, Subj: Notes on South Asia; and (3) Memo, Feb 1, 54, Re: Comments on the Philippines Draft, TS-78035. Chief, a-5ica Lon Review ivision Office of Information Services Directorate of Administration Enclosures: 1. Paper, Undated 2. Paper, Undated 3. Paper, dtd. 25 Jan 54 4. Paper, dtd 22 Near 54 5. Paper, dtd 17 Mar 54 6. Memo, dtd 1 Feb 54 SECRET Distribution: Ori ressee w encl_____ __ - Liaison w/DoD w/encl 2, 4, & 5 ) Unclassified when Separated from Enclosures i nrnnn 1M! n I-11 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Alp proved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Possible U. S. Courses of Action With 'Regard to Afohanistan The recent National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan notes certain dangers from intensification of Soviet interest in Afghanistan as evidenced by the recent Afghan-Soviet agreenst:nts. The NIF, believes a gradual drift toward the Soviet orbit is a probable result although openly aggressive action by the USSR is viewed as unlikely because of the danger of strong anti-Soviet reactions elsewhere in the Arab-Asian bloc, The U. S. and its allies probably do not have a major stake in the continuance of Afghan freedom from Soviet dominance. However, an advance of Soviet ascendancy to the southern borders of Afghanistan would entail certain undesirable consequences: Soviet military access to the borders of Pakistan and the port of Karachi would be enhanced with consequent greater strain on the defensive burdens of Pakistan while such Soviet subjection of another free area would be viewed bar werld opinion as a defeat for the West and the U. S. with consequent dana.ne to our own prestige and the morale of our friends, particularly if Soviet control were achieved in spite of U. S. exertions to repel it. Courses of action for countering the trend of increasing Soviet influences in Afghanistan may be divided broadly into three categories: some form of military assistance to Afghanistan or its adherence to a Middle-East security system,, increased economic assistance to kfghanistan, and some form of merger or union of Afghanistan with Pakistan. Choice of any course of action would be influenced by our estimate of Soviet intentions, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Military Assistance Given the gradual procedures of the U. S. Government for conclusion .e d fulfillment of arms aid agreements, it would prob bly be i possible to deliver military equipment to Afghanistan with the promptness or of a-gnitude sufficient to counterbalance the effects of adverse Soviet reaction. Similarly the adherence of Afghanistan to a Middle-East defense system even after the latter had reached an advanced stage of development might merely add a weak and exposed member who would create a liability to other participants not justified by Afghanistan's contribution nor even by real gain in Afghan security. An attempt to include Afghanistan in a still developing security system would entail the risk or immediate Ct.urr,i.a. reaction worsening the position of ifghanistan and weakening the Security system itself. "[n recent weeks Afghan spokesmen have pleaded their great need for small arms and have uuggested that perhaps these might be purchased with S. credits quietly extended so as to lessen chances of Russian counter- action. 'fhi.s would not be easy to arrange. i;owever, the need for small arson may weld. be quite genuine. Their acquisition might fulfill a desirable end in strengthening Afghanistan's military and internal security .forces. The Pakistanis could be expected to object strenuously to such deliveries. And in fact there would be great difficulty in assuring that small arms delivered to the Government of Afghanistan would not find their way into the hands of tribesmen bent on harassment of Pakistani borders. In the light of our present relations with Pakistan anything we undertake should be with the knowledge and consent of f=,-kistan. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07 : CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Stepped up economic aid to Afghanistan mif,;ht serve several purposes, depending to some extent on its characters size and conditions of delivery. The afghans feel that their economic difficulties require additional foreign assistance and they are thus easily tempted by Soviet offers of help. Oar primary objective should be to provide aid whose net effect would be to slow or stop the growth of Soviet influence in Afghanistan. Our program should act as propaganda to offset admiration for Soviet achieve- meats, and it should also aim at meeting the long-range development needs of the Afghan economy. Further, we should aim at meeting such urgent capital and technical needs of Afghanistan as are likely targets for additional Soviet offers, (the airfield at Ka-1.1ishar and Afghanistan's telecommunications system, for example). Such a program, particularly if it sought to foster real strides in .Afghanistan's economic development, might well involve amounts eight or ten times our current rate of investment. Vithout advising the Afghans in advance, we might be ready with measures to assist Afghanistan to extricate itself through suitable commodity or financial aid from Soviet threats and interference consequent to any Afghan inability to meet barter or other Soviet contract demands. Additional U. S. aid might be conditioned on or held out as an inducement to Afghan agreement to certain desirable political objectives, for example acceptance of a reasonable. settlerient of the Fushtunistan problem. Afghan pride and sensitivity provide form-idable barriers to acceptance of such conditions. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 7 Increase of economic aid would entail certain disadvantages. The Afghans might well find advantage in trying to play one side off against the other for their own gain. Similarly, stepped-up U. S. aid might bring sharper Soviet reactions detrimental to Afghan independence. Confederation with Pakistan kith no clear concept in mind on either side, discuselon and thinking of the two parties has ranged over a wide variety of possibilities from simple cooperation in a few economic projects alonp the common border to abolition of the e fglanistan-Prakistan boundary and installation of the` Afghan King as constitutional monarch at Karachi. The greatest advantage of the broader concept would be its promise of settlement of the Pushtunistan dispute which has weakened both countries and made difficult cooperation between them. However, complete integration of Afghanistan with Pakistan would in effect create a much larger but prob,xbly weaker Pakistan with an extended Soviet border. Pakistan defenses and administrative talent would be spread even more thinly than at present with a probable increase in the urgency of Pakistani demands for U. S. military assistance. Strong adverse reactions from the US R. and India could be expected. Afghanistan's Foreign Minister has told us of his interest in confederation although we have no clear indication of the attitude of his more powerful brother, Prime Minister Daud. In time, however, a new nation more capable of resistin;= Russian pressure might be created given considerable amounts of outside military and economic assistance. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 j)LUtUI- a %MIIOF A start might be made towards merger through some limited forms of cooperation in economic matters, for example in development of hydro- electric schemes near the common border. Si.mrzi.lr rly, there might be cooperative effort in construction of highways, in the establishment of a free port at Karachi and in improved arrangements for marketing fruits in Pakistan. The Pakistanis have expressed impatience with the vagueness and inconstancy of Afghan proposals but they indicate definite interest in modest cooperative efforts which they envisage as':ieading eventually to more important moves, for example a customs union. U. S. economic assistance might be directed toward a significant role in encouraging closer relations bet+tren the two countries-, particu- larly in cooperative economic endeavors. Afghan inflexibility on Puchtunistan continues with little apparent prospect for modification in the Afghan attitude. Gradual progress towards confederation would provide promise of creatiag better political and emotional conditions for settlement of the Pustitunistark. question. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 `. V V i'~"E J r V ~~ 22 111 h 1954 OIL~~P1 -Po ANENDt N? I3 ~~ T CONCLUSIONS III AORIC , ,L SURPLUSES Amend paragraph 3, $ to read$ ?d. Aside front the meant diseased above' the r cpt by the Soviet and Eurapen sate .alit* peopl of fl agriculttwa1 a irpl es is small amounts could Involve no clear eeCxw.t' advantage or diaattvantaa!t -to the US. even Vtot these peoples havo tit been able bt ter se to obtain frm their Soviet, masters sufficient ., ctr l c edittee.7 1here ;,h be i secx3 disadvantage to the VS if the 5oviet8 obtain r tids of ealected IbS &E.21.6ultura2 pEAuats suffiofe'rt to psresit a 6i0ifioaiit improvemextt in the con ion le j pax tioulAr of those dairg and i it l projtacts I.V ich tk X a ''Cte m03t S d8fICIOnt-11 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85BOO236ROO0200190002-1 ECONCP(IC INTELLIGENCE sMITTEE SUBCc1MITTEE ON AGHICULTURE EIC-P-9 create major surplus disposal problems for the U.S. economy, b. could be made ava3.lable, if desired, in sufficient quantities to be potentially important economic or psychological factors in the struggle between the Soviet Bloc and the Free World include the following t Commodity Wheat Butter Cottonseed Oil Linseed Oil Cotton Dried Milk Rice Estimated Volx of U.S. Stocks Jui 19 83D minion bushels . 4e5 " powtds 1,080 " 580 # 9,800 thousand bales 63,5 million pounds 1400 2,& Attached is a tabulation wring U.S. and other Free World surpltses of these products with a generally deficit situations in the Soviet Bloc and in bordering!V countries. 1/ This is a preliminary euen?sry of an ETC Working Paper under prepara. of Agriculture, and it has not yet been reviewed or approved by COMMODITIES AVATLABLE FOR EXPORT FROM THE UNITED 'STATES 1. The principal U.S. agricultural commodities which: tion by the FIC Subcommittee on Agriculture. It is based on material prepared by a small working group from CIA and the U.S. Department A .tlh only bordering non-.Bloc importers aria discussed in this sui wy, all major Importers or exporters are covered in supple- mentary appendices. .material can be reviewed by the EIC. either the ETC or its Subcommittee on Agriculture. While its am- olusions reflect the best data available, they are subject to minor modifications - particularly in detailed statistics. It is planned to Issue a fuller, agreed Working Paper as soon as the working group S-E -C.R-U-T Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85BOO236ROO0200190002-1 YTER OIL RILL :`L+ Ids Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 MAJOR SURPLUS CCIIMO:7IT IN Ti U )ITuf) STATES WITH SURPLUS OR PIOII3 PGsr2ION SPEC ' V CO UaS. stocks June 30, 1951 (Vi 13 uns) SURPLUS COUNTRIES Soviet Bloc Probable Exoorte Non-1310C Probable f its 830.0 USSR 61.3 Canada 300.0 Australia .0 85 Areeny4dna ? 8 125.0 1325.0 USSR 20.0 Zealand . Now 3115.3 Denmark 2613.6 Australia 83.0 Argentina 20.0 615.0 USSR N New Zealand 95.4 Netherlands 1 9 15.0 Australia 60,0 1,080.0 China 150.0 Anglo ,gy Sudan 130.0 Uganda 2010 Pakistan 0 20.0 53o.o China 15.0 Argentina 300.0 Canada 100.0 9.8 USSR 1.0 mrgt 1.5 Brazil 1.3 Pakistan 1.1 Mexico 0.9 1,00.0 Chian 1,322.8 Thailand 2,854.0 BLUM& 13,180,,4 Soviet Bloc Probable Ivorts Czechoslovakia 113.7; V. GermwW E. GermarV 18.7 Austria Yugoslavia India Japan Czechoslovak9a. 20,0 1,'. Germazr E. Germany 130.0 Finland Austria ism Ind a USSR 350.0 W1 Oermax C. Germazr 10.0 Japan Czechoslovakia 5.0 India USSR 330.0 it. GerwW Czechoslova 60.0 Japan Poland 135.0 India Iluzary 16.0 China 0.3 1'1. Germarq Czechoslovakia 0.3 Yugoslavia Poland o.S5 Sweden 2. 0e 0.3 Japan India 213.0 3.5 1.8 50.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 q ~?4./0 28,0 6o.o 1.2 0.1 0.1 2.4 0,13 Ceylon 1,21010 India 2,200,0 Japan 2,865.0 ;;ya zOL5.0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 (, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Ile Individual Co nodity Positions 1. Wheat. The USSR and its- European satellites have traditionally been heavy gain exporters, although increasing populations and redis- tribution of agricultural emphases have greatly reduced f 'rrmer wheat surpluses. Now only the USSR itself is a substantial wheat exporter, having shipped some 60 million bushels over the past year. Past Germany and Czechoslovakia, hoover, must import wheat; so that the net Bloc - surplus for 1953-54 was only about 40 million bushels, loth the USSR and its European satellites have recently initiated vigorous progress to increase wheat production. The Bloc clearly will ordinarily be self-sufficient in wheat over the rext 15 months, and may be in position to increase its own exports to bordering non-Bloc countries, Of these, West Germa , India, Pakistan, Japan and Yugoslavia have the heaviest import deficits, Canada, Austra- lia and Argentina are major exporters, 2. Butter. Most of the non-Bloc countries of the world are more adequ ately snip ied with edible rats and oil, generally, than are Soviet countries. Butter supply, as such,, is particularly deficit in East Germany, Czechoslovakia and the USSR itself. Although per capita butter consumption in the USSR is only 4.4 pounds per annurm, the Soviet has been obliged during the past year to ship 150 million pounds to East Germany and Czechoslovakia to relieve food shortages there, No Soviet Bloc countries have any surplus butter and thei generally Aq., adequate butter supplies are not expected to improve over the next 15 month s, Among Free World countries west Germany, Finland and Austria are heavily deficit in butter while New Zealand, Denmark, Austr Zia and Argentina are important exporters. 3. Dried milk. Of Bloc countries only the USSR uses substantial quantities of dried milk, all of which is produced internally for domestic consumption. Of bordering non-3loc countries only Japan and India are significant importers. Since there is rather limited con- sumer acceptance of powdered milk, it is doubtful if any Bloc or bordering non-Bloc countries could be particularly interested in obtaining large quantities, Other Free World exporters include.New Zeaiands the Netherlands and Australia. Significant changes in levels of adequacy of dried milk supply are unlikely over the next 15 months - especially in view of the elo ss with which consumer acceptance would seem subject to change, Li. Cotes ed oil. In the Soviet Bloc this is of major im. ports-ice rw so - e nce palm and cocoanut oils are difficult for them to obtain,, any do not have adequate technical facilities to use cottonseed oil freely as an edible oil, During the current year the Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Yr S-E-C-R-E-T USSR is expected to import (principally from China) the/equivale t of China's export surplus, estimated at 150 million pounds'; while East Oernax*q and Czechoslovakia- will import an additional 15 million pounds frcmm non?t3loc sources. In general, the Bloc (exclusive of China) will probably attempt to import as much cottonseed oil as possible during the next 15 months as part of the over-all plan to increase consumer goods, It is estimated that U.S. stocks of cottonseed oil will approximate 1,080 million pounds by July 19511 - representing some 80 percent of Free World stocks, (Bloc stocks will probably be negligible.) Other important non-Bloc exporters will probably bet Anglo-Egyptian Sudan Uganda (East-central Africa) Pakistan West Germ arW Japan India ~. Linseed oil. In Soviet Bloc countries the principal use of li.nse? d o ' s?or aking paints - although It also has limited utilization AOL for edible purposes. The USSR and its European satellites are inadequately supplied with linseed oil and other industrial oils generally. Their 1953/n levels of e;~e ports of linseed oil will about equal their own in- digencus productinam USSR, Czechoslovakia and Hungary are the prin. cipal Bloc consumers of industrial oils and should import some 365 million pounds this year from non-Bloc sources. In addition, China is expected to sell the other Bloc countries most of its own surplus of 15 minion pounds . The USSR is planning a sharp increase in linseed oil production in 1954/55 and may be in a position to reduce her imports by that date. Offsetting this factor will be the increased consumer demand for paints. astern Germany,, Japan and Sweden are the only significant peripheral country importers. The major non-Bloc ex orters during 1953/54 will be Argentina' Canada and the United States. These countries will have July 1955 stocks of linseed oil far in excess of the negligible stocks which will, be avail.. able in the Bloc at that time. U.S. stocks alone exceed the estimated industrial cormoption of linseed oil-1W a entire diet Bloc. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 tries. purthermore 01st Gina will import an estimated 300#000 baUs from non-Bloc sources in 1953, . a European satellites ? which produce only limited quantities domestically Soviet?B]at- as a whole remains an important net importer of cotton. Raving achieved self-sufficiency at very low per capita levels, the US3Et nds 44 necsasary to ship about me million balsa aramal1y to the S S-E-.C-R-V.-T .,o l~f Cotton. Despite intenr Pied production in the , the the next 15 months any USSR success in further increasing Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 lWor peripheral none-Bloc importers over the next 15 amthe win probably be Japan, India, Ceylon and Malaya - while Burma and Thailand Bap a present meager supplies of cotton textiles; and they accordingly be vnWer strong preasurea to increase imports from non-Bloc sources. Principal peripheral (non-Bloc) Importers Include Japan,, West GeznwWv India., Austria, Sweden and lhgoslavi a. Major non-B c exporters an t# Pakistan, Brazil and Max1co. 7. Ries. C d st China i s the only l erg t i ty dealer in rice in et Moo, producing and consuming over 98 percent of total Bloc output. Although rice provides some, 55 percent total calorie intake in China (perhaps 80 percent in such of South China), its con- t1-on in the USSR and European satellites is urdnportant, - except in a f isolated localities. Actually it is expected that Comvxdst China may sport relatively wall quantities of rice in 1953/54 (perhaps 6W,O0O toms of nearly 50 million tans producticca), probably to the Moo (possibls divervi.ons, to forces in Indo-China are not known), No specific estimates are f ble for met Chinese rice stocks as of July 1955# although they two ted to be substantially 1ower`ian those of important non- cotton production will tend to be offset by pradeed increases in con- tion of textiles. In any event neither China nor the &wqDean aatel7Citea can depend on Bloc productio to support an Increase in will be the principal Free World exporters. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 MEMORANDUM FOR THE CHIEF, CLASSIFICATION REVIEW DIVISION, CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY SUBJECT: Request for Declassification Review During the systematic review of all classified Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) documents over 20 years old, the Declassification and Historical Research Branch, Records Management Division, Directorate for Correspondence and Directives, Washington Headquarters Services, turned up the attached document(s). The documents were either originated by your agency, contain information for which your agency is the classification authority, or are otherwise of interest to you. It is therefore requested that your agency review the documents and recommend declassification, continued classification at the present or lesser level of classification, and/or review by other agencies. If your agency is recommending continued classification, in accordance with Para- graph 3-401, Executive Order 12065, it is requested that an authority for continued classification be specified, along with a date for the next review. The time permitted by Executive Order 12065 to reach the point where all OSD documents over 20 years old have been reviewed, and the large volume of over 20 year old OSD documents, make it necessary to request your res- ponse within 60 days. In your response, you may wish to provide guidance with regard to what categories of information you do and do not wish to have referred to you in the future. Your assistance in effecting this review will be most appreciated. Please return the documents to Mr. Brian V. Kinney, Chief, Declassification and Historical Research Branch, Records Management Division, Washington Head- quarters Services, Room 1D517, Pentagon, Washington, D.C. 20301, upon completion of your review. Without attachments, this memorandum is UNCLASSIFIED. E. E. Lowry, DEPA ME 1j o7e SE WASHINGTON, HEADQUARTERS SERVICES WASHINGTON, D.C. 20301 . April 1, 1982 Attachments (6) Tnv cTr.Ur Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1 LIST OF ATTACHMENTS 1. Paper, Undated, Subj: Intelligence on Attitudes of Afghanistan Government Toward Middle East Regional Defense Pact and Soviet Communism (TS) OK 2. Paper, Undated, Subj: Possible U. S. Courses of Action With Regard to 0< _5tatt Afghanistan (S) 3. Paper, 25 Jan 54, Subj : Notes on South Asia (TS) C)K- iT..tt 4. Paper, 22 Mar 54, Subj: CIA Proposed Amendment to Draft Conclusions Re OK. Agricultural Surpluses (S) 5. Paper, 17 Mar 54, Subj: Surplus or Deficit Position of Various Countries in Major Agricultural Commodities Available for Export from the United States/w 1 Attachment--Chart, EIC-P-9 (S) e k 6. Memo, Feb 1, 54, Re: Comments on the Philippines Draft, TS-78035 (TS) U `tv~e Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/02/07: CIA-RDP85B00236R000200190002-1