CLIMATE CONTROL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-03425A002100020014-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 6, 2013
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: November 22, 1960
• Content Type: MEMO

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'C. ONLY LL.3, .411 IMO.
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''---ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
FROM:
Luis deFlorez
NO.
DATE
22 November 1960
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DDCI, 203 Adm.
DATE
RECEIVED FORWARDED
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
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Mr El SECRET CONFIDENTIAL UNSTEEROZ fl UNCLASSIFIED
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22 November 1960
MEMORANDUM FOR: GENERAL CHARLES P. CABELL
SUBJECT : Climate Control
Attached is a paper prepared by the Research Division of the
Travellers Insurance Company on the need for a climate control
study program after discussions with Dr. Thomas Malone (Chief
of the Division) and his staff. I trust you will find it interesting.
Attachment: (1)
As Noted
LUIS deYLOREZ
Research Chairman
NFIDENT1/(Z
50X1
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THE NEED FOR A CLIMATE CONTROL STUDY
PROGRAM
I. Introduction
Control of the weather environment involves the complete spectrum of
weather phenomena. As a function of the time and space scale associated
with such weather phenomena, different types of human activities are
affected ranging from those of the individuals, through the complex
operations of large industrial and military organizations and the activities
of entire societies. The concept of weather control has meaning only
when it is discussed in terms of the specific operations for which it is
to be used. The techniques which are and can be used for control of the
weather environment vary with the scale of the operation considered and
with the specific goals which are to be achieved by such weather control.
Large scale climateont ol requires the modification of the global
weather patterns by altering and interferring with the large-scale physical
processes which are associated with the characteristic motions on the
scale of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Many proposals have
been made regarding means of altering the various physical processes
In the atmosphere which might affect these large-scale atmospheric circula-
tions. Most of these proposals have never been subjected to detailed
scientific feasibility analyses.
These proposals fall into several general categories. In general they
can be categorised by whether they seek to alter processes associated
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with the energy and
or moisture balance of the atmosphere.
Thr example. proposals have been made to alter the energy balance of
large areas by altering the surface albedo. Proposals of this nature
involve changing surface albedos by the use of substances of appropriate
absorptive or reflective characteristics which differ from the natural
surface. An example is the proposal that polar areas be covered with
layers of soot. Other proposals are made to alter the energy balance of
the atmosphere by injecting dust and other particulate utter into the
high atmosphere which might alter the input of solar energy to the
atmosphere. Proposals for altering the normal energy cycle of the
atmosphere extend also to the alteration of the chemistry of atmospheric
substances especially in the high atmosphere which might also effect
the radiational balance.
Proposals axe made to alter the moisture balance of the atnlosphere
by the alteration of the evaporation mechanisms. These proposals
suggest spreading various kinds of film upon large bodies of water thus
cutting down evaporation and interferring with the moisture cycle of the
atmosphere. Furthermore, when films are spread upon surfaces to
alter their evaporation potential the mechanical effects of the surface are
also altered, which might affect the momentum balance of the atmosphere.
Proposals are also made for altering the momentum balance of the
atmosphere. These proposals generally involve a modification of the
surface frictional stresses by changing the frictional drag coefficients
ver large areas of suxlace.
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. The TechnpoicaZBa8ts for the Reexamination of the Feaeibili
of Climate
Technological developments of the past two decades have provided
the understanding, the techniques, and the means necessary for an
assault on the problems of climate control. Control of any kind requires
capabilities in all three of the areas. eteoroiogy is just now
leginning,,to acquire such capabilities.
Achievement of an understanding of the large-scale physical
processes of the atmosphere has been a continuing process over many
decades. Rowever, during the past several years the systematic exploita-
tion of observational information on a global scale has led to a coherent
description of the manner in which the large-scalephysical processes
in the atmosphere operate to provide for the maintenance of the global
ni and the manner
circulations against the dissipative effect
of fr
in which they operate transform the solar energy into the kinetic energy
of the organized large-scale atmospheric circulations. Theo tical
studies have led to an understanding of the reasonswhy the atmospheric
physical processes operate in the observed manner. In combination these
studies have led to the formation of the first consistent rudimentary theories
for the causes of the fluctuations of the large-scale atmospheric circulations.
The attainment of such a theory holds broad implications forte
manner in which climate control studies should be conducted. Much as the
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biologist must first achieve an understanding of the causes and processes
olved in the generation and communication of diseases before be can
consider the problem of disease control, so the meteorologist must achieve
an understanding of the causes and processes involved in the fluctuations of the
atmospheric circulations which control the regional and global climate. While
the meteorologists' understanding is by no means perfect, and much remains
to be done, at least the first and most necessary level of understanding has
been reached.
Given such understanding the meteorologist must have the capability
of simulating and testing the natural phenomena he must control. In other
physical sciences this is a relatively straightforward matter of laboratory
simulation. The circulation phenomena of relevance in global climate are not
so readily amenable to laboratory simulation. Fortunately, simple models of
the atmospheric circulations of a mathematical nature can and have been
intensively studied by meteorologists in connection with theoretical studies
of the general circulation and in connection with the problems of numerical
weather forecasting. The indispensible tool which has generated such intensive
interest in such mathematical formulations of atmospheric models has been
the high speed electronic computer, which has become the laboratory of the
meteorologist. Rapid technological advances in the data processing and computing
art now make it feasible to consider the treatment of simple mathematical
models of the atmosphere of considerable sophistication in which important
physical processes can be simulated. Such computing machines now place
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the meteorologist in the enviable position of other scientists in that the
effects of various physical processes can be studied under controlled conditions.
In particular, it has now become feasible not only to speculate about the
consequences of human intervention in the atmospheric processes but also
to simulate, test and study these consequences.
The meteorologist has also attempted to imitate his more fortunate
scientific brethren by constructing laboratory models of large-scale atmospheric
and oceanic circulations. He has been able to attain considerable success in
producing reasonable hydrodynamic analogues of these large-scale atmospheric
motions which are also amenable to study under controlled laboratory con-
ditions. This second tool for simulation and testing purposes provides the
meteorologist with another indispensible capability which was unavailable to
him just one decade ago.
Much of the well justified skepticism about th easibility of climate
control has centered on the available human means for exercising necessary
control. While there are many conceivable methods for the control of climate,
all of them involve the expenditure of energy in one form or another. Even
the vulnerable instabilities of the atmosphere which one would hope to uncover
through a systematic program of climate control studies, the so-called
"trigger mechanisms", will probably require access to energy sources of
immense magnitude for proper exploitation. In this atomic age, we now have
available truly immense potential sources of power, and it is highly likely
that our lifetime will see the harnessing of hydrogen fusion power, which will
provide almost limitless sources of energy. Thus it is no longer possible
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to relegate considerationsof climate control to the fantasies of science
fiction on this acco:
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has now become necessary for us to recognize the
realities and potentialities of modern science for what they are and what they
can mean for the possibilities of cIiznte control.
4
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3. Civil and Military Implications
The impace of the successful achievement of methods for the control
of climate upon all types of human activities confounds the imagination. Slight
amelioration of adverse precipitation or temperature regimes could result in
the reclamation of vast territories for agricultural and many other types of
human activities. Desert areas which cover a large fraction of the earth's
surface are known in many cases to require only slight changes in moisture
regimes to make them suitable for large scale agricultural production. Small
changes in circulation regimes could bring about the moderation of severe
temperature climates to yield additional areas suitable for human habitation.
Such changes in circulation regimes can also affect the normal paths of destructive
storms like hurricanes, such that their destructive energies could be dissipated
in regions far removed from major human activities. Changes in atmospheric
circulation regimes would have marked effects upon oceanic circulations with
consequent changes in the abundance and location of fertile fishing grounds.
Moderate changes in climatic characteristics will have serious repercussions
for all aspects of industrial activity.
Militarily, a climatic control capability raises the possibility of a totally
new type of warfare. This type of warfare may be termed "Geophysical Warfare" in
which our ability to control the weather environment can be used as a weapon.
This geophysical weapon will be unique in character in that it can be used in both
hot and cold struggles. It can be used to affect an enemy adversely or benefit a
friend. As a function of the nature of the control capability, the use of such a
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weapon could be a determining factor in the success of national military operations.
As a hot war weapon it would be best to have a strong control capability
for specific areas and specific periods of time. Since we are talking about
Intermediate and long period climate control, this would imply a conflict of
considerable duration. Specific military consequences of such a control capability
would be in the potential for destruction of an enemy's food production capability
thereby weakening his total military power, and also in the derangements of
transportation systems and other industrial activities which might result from a
marked change in climatic conditions.
As a cold war tool, the capability of climate control would place in the
hands of this Government a tool for ameliorating the weather conditions in friendly
and uncommitted nations as a means of strengthening bonds with this country.
Conversely as a cold war weapon, a climate control capability provides for a
unique surreptitious means for weakening a potential enemy so that he does not
have the capability to wage a hot war.
The general study of the feasibility of climate control independent of the
use of this capability in either hot or cold conflicts provides necessary national
insurance if other nations achieve a control capability. Such a capability in
either friendly or unfriendly hands represents a threat of weather conditions
which might adversely affect the welfare of our nation. As an absolutely necessary
countermeasure, this country must have within its scientific arsenal the knowledge
of how to combat any such attempts at control by other nations. Failure to undertake
a consistent program at this time which might provide the knowledge necessary to
combat such climate control operations on the part of other nations, could lead to
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another "Sputnik" situation.
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4. General Outline of a Technical Program for Investigating the Feasibility of
Climate Control
4. 1 Principle areas of technical activity.
Those items marked with asterisks are considered to be the long range
continuing activities of prime importance.
4. 1. 1 Complete literature survey especially focused upon Russian work.
4.1. 2 A detailed scientific analysis of all proposals made to date for
controlling climate with an evaluation of the economic feasibility as well as the
possible scientific consequences, U any.
*4.1. 3 An expanded effort to collect, systematise. and analyze observational
material for the entire globe extending to the highest accessible levels to obtain a
more detailed and clearer description of the fundamental physical processes operating
in the earthss atmosphere.
*4. 1.4 An expanded effort to develop mathematical models of the
atmosphere capable of including those pertinent physical processes which are felt
to be important in the fluctuations of the large-scale atmospheric motions.
*4. 1. 5 A consistent long range program of comparative numerical
integrations of mathematical models to determine the consequences of interferring
with any physical processes in the atmosphere.
4. 1.6 A much expanded program in associated sciences, especially in
the field of numerical analysis to enable us to conduct extended numerical
integrations.
*4. 1.7 An extended effort to undertake studies of radiational processes
in the atmosphere which will provide necessary information for incorporation into
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mathematical models suitable for numerical integration.
*4. 1.8 An expanded effort to establish experimental laboratory facilities
for the construction of experimental models suitable for simulating and testing
various theories about atmospheric circulations which may be important for
climate control.
4.1. 9 A long range program of investigations of the interaction between
ocean and atmosphere to determine the nature of these interactions.
4. 1. 10 A program of investigation into pertinent microrneteorological
processes especially as they refer to the fictional dissipation of kinetic energy
and the transfer of momentum and energy at the earth-atmosphere interface.
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A Possible Program for the Study of Climate
Control Problems
I. 0 Introduction
It is proposed that a group of scientists be assembled to conduct
experiments on the feasibility of climate control. The objective of
this research will be to develop methods necessary to analyze and
test the theoretical and economic feasibility of ideas which have been
and will be proposed to control climate.
There is a clear need to undertake the following types of studies
on a systematic long range basis.
a. The evaluation of present knowledge which may be
pertinent to the problem.
b. The supplementary research not adequately being performed
be present research organizations.
c. Theoretical climate control experiments as justified by the
state of the art.
It should be clearly emphasized that the chances of attaining
feasible climate control methods are extremely small. The potential
value to the nation is so great, however, as to warrant the initiation
of the activities proposed below.
2.0 Surveillance and Evaluation of the Existing State of the Art.
There are many research efforts in this country and abroad which
have important bearing on the problems of climate control. This
research encompasses numerical general circulation and short range
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forecast experiments, observational studies of the large scale
atmosphere physical processes involving momentum, energy and
moisture exchanges, experimental research on laboratory atmospheric
analogues, and pertinent technological advances in non meteorological
sciences concerned with the availability of energy sources, delivery
and distribution systems, and materials.
An active program of surveillance and evaluation of the existing state
of the art as represented by the research described above% for its
applicability to climate control problems is required. This work should
commence with a literature survey of pertinent and related research.
This surveillance program will permit the isolation of promising
developments which require further engineering and testing and will
define any supplementary research required to further climate control
objectives. This should be a continuing effort to monitor all pertinent
research so that at all times the state of the art is fully exploited for
purposes of examining the feasibilities of climate control.
3.0 Supplementary Research
It is envisioned that the activities of the group will include research
necessary to supplement the work of other groups. Additional research
may be required to describe more fully the climatology of certain
pertinent physical processes in the atmosphere. Information on space
and time spectra will be required of the various atmospheric energy
and momentum exchange processes. This research will aid in the
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formulation of realistic physical models of the atmosphere. It is
likewise needed to test the suitability of various models for the purpose
of numerical climate control experiments.
Extensive research into the formulation of mathematical models
of the atmosphere which are suitable for long period integrations will be
required. These models will be integrated numerically on an electronic
computer and tested for agreement with the climatology of pertinent
physical processes. Depending upon the test results, the numerical
Integration methods and the mathematical models may require modifica-
tion in order to achieve a formulation which is suitable to numerical
climate control experiments.
4.0 Climate Control Experiments
A series of systematic numerical climate control experiments
will be performed with suitable atmospheric models to analyze and
test the theoretical and economic feasibility of ideas which have or
will be proposed to control climate. These experiments will be
designed to assess the climatic change which would result from changes
due to artificially introduced energy and momentum sources and sinks.
Innumerable ways have been proposed for varying these sources and
sinks, such as changing radiation absorptions and reflection characteristics
controlling evaporation from free water bodies, altering surface stresses,
etc.
5.0 Personnel and Program Costs
Until such time as it is clear that the state of the art can permit
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extensive climate control numerical experimentation, the research
effort should be concentrated on items 2.0 and 3.0. When the model
development under item 3.0 has progressed to a satisfactory point, a
large increase in electronic computer time would be required for
item 4.0.
Personnel required to pursue this program would be:
2 Senior Research Associates (dynamic meteorology)
1 Senior Research Associate (physicist)
1 Senior Research Associate (mathematician)
2 Research Associates (dynamic meteorology)
3 Research Associates (mathematicians, analysists, and
programmers).
plus supporting help.
Total salary support and overhead costs estimated on the basis
of $25,000.00 per professional would be $225,000/year. Initially,
computer rental for 200 hours/year would total approximately $75,000.00/
year. Computer costa would greatly increase for any substantial
effort under item 4.0.
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