NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 9 DECEMBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010031-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: December 9, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
9 December 1983
OVZVM
CPAS NID
9 December 1983 25X1
Copy 285
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Contents
PLO: Arafat's Evacuation Plans .........
Egypt-Saudi Arabia: Reaction to US Moves ..
Iraq-Iran: Iraqi Air Attacks in the Persian Gulf
Nicaragua-Honduras-Costa Rica: Maritime Incidents
Canada: Preelection Politics ... ....... ...._.......
Lebanon-US: Conciliatory Moves by Druze
USSR: Remarks on Andropov's Performance ....
El Salvador: Vides and the Death Squads ......... .. 10
Sweden: New Evidence of Minisubmarine Intrusions 13
UK: Plans of Peace Movement ... ........ 13
Special Analysis
Poland: Preparing for Trouble ............. 14
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9 December 1983
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The evacuation of PLO chairman Arafat's forces from Tripoli,
scheduled for tomorrow, will mark the beginning of a struggle between
him and his opponents to control the political organs of the PLO.
The Greek Government has told the US Embassy in Athens that
the evacuation on four Greek ships will begin in the morning and end
later in the day. Greece has sought assurances from Israel that it will
not interfere with the operation, and it has asked the US, France, and
the UK to do the same.
Arafat's approximately 4,000 troops will be sent mainly to Tunisia
and North Yemen. Some reportedly may eventually go to other Arab
countries, including Algeria and South Yemen.
PLO spokesmen say Arafat intends soon to convene the PLO
decisionmaking bodies, in which he commands a majority. Dissident
leaders are warning against such a move and imply they will retaliate
against Palestinian participants in the meetings.
Comment: Both Arafat and his opponents seem prepared to
allow the evacuation to proceed without major hindrance, although
isolated shooting incidents could temporarily disrupt the operation.
Arafat believes the Palestine National Council and other PLO
institutions will reaffirm his position as PLO chairman. The dissidents
realize this, and, with Syrian help. Will trv to prevent the meetings
through intimidation and terror.
Arafat's departure may be followed by clashes between pro- and
anti-Syrian militias in Tripoli. The Islamic Unification Movement, a
fundamentalist Muslim militia that sided with Arafat, apparently has
had little success in repairing its relations with Syria. Its troops in
recent days have clashed with Syrian-backed militias.
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sites, despite their continued opposition to the moves.
Israeli military agreement and to the airstrike against Syrian missile
Cairo and Riyadh are tempering their public responses to the US-
dramatic gesture that would disassociate Egypt from the US.
Aides to Egyptian Foreign Minister All have told a US official that
President Mubarak has decided to give the US the "benefit of the
doubt" about its recent actions. The aides indicated that Mubarak's
decision resolves, at least for the time being, an intense debate in the
leadership over how to respond. They say, however, that public anger
at the US has strengthened the hand of officials who are arguing for a
The US Embassy in Jidda reports that there is widespread dismay
among Saudi officials about the US-Israeli accord and the airstrikes
but that King Fahd is trying to limit the damage to Saudi-US relations.
A close adviser to the King says Fahd has refused to condemn the US
actions publicly, despite pressure within his government to do so.
Washington undergo serious deterioration.
Comment: The Egyptians may yet show their displeasure over the
US actions by dragging their feet on strategic cooperation with the
US. Because of Cairo's reliance on US military, economic, and
political support, however, it is reluctant to let its relations with
security cooperation with the US.
Riyadh's mild response evidently is attributable to the
recognition-even by Crown Prince Abdallah and other longstanding
Saudi critics of US policy-that US support would be needed to
counter any Iranian military actions in the Persian Gulf. Joint US-
Israeli military actions in Lebanon or additional US-Syrian clashes,
however, would diminish Fahd's latitude in continuing political and
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9 December 1983
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IRAQ-IRAN: Iraqi Air Attacks in the Persian Gulf
Baghdad appears determined to close down the Iranian port of
Bandar-e Khomeyni, through which some 20 percent of Iran's imports
pass.
Iraq claims to have hit six more Iranian ships yesterday near
Bandar-e Khomeyni, Iran's only port with a functioning railhead. The
Air Force, supported by naval units, led the attack, according to
Baghdad's announcement. The Iraqis say they downed one Iranian
fighter, while losing one of their own
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Nicaragua
*MANAGUA
p 100
Kilometers
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Costa Rica
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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Several naval clashes between Honduras and Nicaragua, as well
as an incident involving a Costa Rican freighter, are contributing to
rising tensions in the region.
Managua has filed an official protest charging Tegucigalpa with
responsibility for three recent clashes, including two in the Gulf of
Fonseca. The Sandinistas acknowledge the first encounter was
between naval units but claim the other attacks involved Nicaraguan
fishing vessels.
In addition, a US-owned, Costa Rican-registered cargo ship was
attacked by aircraft off Nicaragua's east coast earlier this week. The
shipping company's representative says the aircraft belonged to the
Sandinistas. San Jose has sent an official protest to Managua over
the incident.
Comment: The Hondurans have had the better of the Sandinistas
in several naval engagements this fall, and they evidently have
improved coordination between their air and naval forces. More
incidents are likelv as f more aggressive Sandinista naval
patrolling.
Sandinista Air Force participation in the reported attack on the
east coast remains unconfirmed. The Sandinistas routinely conduct
surveillance around Nicaragua's offshore islands, however, and they
may have believed the ship was in their claimed territorial waters.
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CANADA: Preelection Politics
The government introduced a new legislative program on
Wednesday designed to strengthen economic recovery, promote arms
control, and improve its prospects for the federal election expected to
The economic plan includes $810 million for job training, which is
aimed at easing unemployment among young people, and measures
to make more mortgage money available. Ottawa also stressed its
intention to expand trade and improve relations with the US and
reaffirmed its strong commitment to the goals of the National Energy
Program. In addition, the government promised to devote its full
resources to the continuation and expansion of Prime Minister
Trudeau's current peace initiative.
Comment: The economic plans are consistent with the
conservative policy established last April by Finance Minister Lalonde
in his budget. The government did not provide an estimate of the
program's cost, but Lalonde said the funding would be pared from
existing programs and not come from increased taxes or deficit
spending. The Liberals are anxious to counter Tory accusations of
fiscal irresponsibility, and they probably believe that a conservative
economic policy will undercut the opposition's criticism.
Ottawa's campaign to promote arms control reflects Trudeau's
ideological commitment to disarmament and the Liberal Party's hope
that the initiative will appeal to the public and begin to erode the
Conservative Party's 29-point lead in the polls. Trudeau is likely to
pick up the pace of his campaign soon by seeking to put public
pressure on both superpowers to resume disarmament negotiations.
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ma
LEBANON-US: Conciliatory Moves by Druze
stronghold and have offered to allow the airport to reopen.
Druze leaders are concerned about continuing rumors that US
forces plan to assist the Lebanese Army in sweeps of southern Beirut
and Druze-held areas on the Alayh ridgeline in the near future. They
have offered to have a US military observer come to Shuwayfat to
survey Druze positions there overlooking Beirut Airport and to
monitor the sources of fire. In addition, they have invited the US
Ambassador to visit Druze leader Walid Junblatt at his mountain
shelling of the Marines.
Comment: The Druze leaders probably hope that these moves,
following the deaths of US Marines on Sunday, will reduce US hostility
toward them and forestall any retaliation. Monitoring Druze positions
around the airport could substantially reduce the likelihood of further
USSR: Remarks on Andropov's Performance
members of the academic community in Moscow were disappointed
that Andropov's anticorruption drive had not accomplished more.
military support. Last summer
the younger aspirants and because he continues to have strong
are disappointed about General
Secretary Andropov's failure to follow through on his anticorruption
drive. Andropov would remain in office in
a caretaker capacity because the old guard in the Politburo distrusts
ny people
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his political position has eroded.
to speculate on who may succeed AndroDov is another indication that
he fully recovered his health. The recent willingness
This would make it more difficult for him to reassert authority even if
Comment: The view of Andropov as a transitional leader may
now be widespread in party circles because of his prolonged absence.
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9 9 December 1983
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EL SALVADOR: Vides and the Death Squads
Defense Minister Vides, in meetings with US officials today in
Washington, is expected to request US aid in investigating and
prosecuting personnel involved in death squad activities, according to
the US Embassy. Vides recently has begun a vocal campaign to
eliminate rightwing terrorist groups and has privately told staff and
field commanders that extremist violence is undermining
democratization and jeopardizing relations with Washington. The US
defense attache says that last week Vides appointed National Guard
intelligence chief Arango to investigate death squad activities in the
armed forces.
Comment: Vides previously has refrained from linking armed
forces personnel to rightwing violence, and his new approach may
reflect his growing confidence in his authority in the military.
Nevertheless, he cannot succeed without overwhelming support from
military commanders. Many commanders have strong rightist
sympathies, and they probably would reject any moves that would
weaken the standing of the officer corps. In 1979, Arango reportedly
served as a leader of a death squad in the National Guard.
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Sweden
Naval
Base
Area of
seafloor
tracks
ut6
Norway Finland
Sweden
Stockholm
Area of map
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SWEDEN: New Evidence of Minisubmarine Intrusions
In mid-November Swedish Navy divers discovered caterpillar-
tread-type tracks on the seafloor within Swedish waters in a restricted
area near naval facilities south of Stockholm. The numerous parallel
and crisscrossing tracks are in waters nine to 15 meters deep, and
were one to four weeks old when discovered. They appear identical to
the tracks found last October in nearby Horsfjarden Bay. The US
naval attache in Stockholm, who has viewed video tapes of the tracks,
reports they are clearly distinguishable from anchor drag marks and
Comment: This new evidence adds credibility to Sweden's claims
that intrusions by minisubmarines, which were first discovered in
October 1982, are continuing. The tracks are the most persuasive
physical evidence of the minisubmarine intrusions. Neither the
minisubmarines nor their support facilities have been identified.
The decision last weekend by the Campaign for Nuclear
Disarmament to mount a nationwide effort to prevent cruise missile
dispersal training will cause Defense Secretary Heseltine to move
cautiously. The US Embassy reports that the Campaign increased its
direct membership by more than 50 percent last year-to 80,000-
and says that public nervousness about US intentions will keep the
peace movement strong. The Embassy adds, however, that the
Campaign's decision to lobby for British withdrawal from NATO will
limit its appeal among moderates.
Comment: A determined effort by the peace movement to block
off-base training will be difficult to circumvent. Heseltine probably will
delay until he is confident that his security forces can control the
situation. Even then, however, the Defense Minister will remain
concerned that the movement may foment incidents that could
damage the government and his own political standing. Heseltine is
frequently cited as one of the possible successors to Prime Minister
Thatcher.
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Coming Events
10 December Walesa's wife accepts the Nobel Peace Prize for
her husband.
13 December Second anniversary of martial law.
16 December 13th anniversary of worker protests in Gdansk,
Early January
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Gdynia, and Szczecin.
Second anniversary of the killing of seven
miners at mines in Wujek following the
imposition of martial law.
Walesa has stated he will lay flowers at the
Solidarity monument in Gdansk and speak to
the crowds.
Underground has called for peaceful
demonstrations.
Price increases to go into effect.
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Special Analysis
POLAND: Preparing for Trouble
The authorities have tightened security and renewed criticism of
Lech Walesa in an effort to forestall antiregime activities in the coming
weeks. The government evidently fears that growing disaffection over
its economic policies, especially proposed price increases, will lead to
increased participation in demonstrations next week marking the
anniversaries of martial law and the workers' revolt in 1970. The
authorities also may believe that a renewed show of determination is
necessary to limit sporadic and unpredictable strikes. The regime
probably will be able to maintain control, however, without restoring
martial law controls or resorting to other harsh measures.
Premier Jaruzelski's recent efforts to blunt popular unhappiness
over his policies have not worked. His unprecedented apology for the
inept reintroduction of butter rationing early last month and
monthlong "consultations" on the proposed price increases have not
improved the regime's credibility, which is at rock bottom. Instead,
they probably have only persuaded the population that the
government's economic policies are not working.
Precautionary Moves
The regime's heightened security measures include threats of
increased use of stop-and-search tactics, more overtime for the
secret police, and a possible limited callup of reserves. A special
Committee on the Preservation of Law, Public Order, and Societal
Discipline also has been created under the Minister of Interior,
presumably to give the appearance of widespread popular support for
the activity of the security services.
To discourage demonstrations, the authorities probably will warn
potential troublemakers to stay at home, perhaps temporarily detain
some, and possibly arrest a few well-known underground activists.
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As part of its longer term program, the government in recent
months also has laid the legal groundwork that would allow it easily to
reinvoke a state of emergency. Last month Jaruzelski became head of
a strengthened National Defense Committee, which oversees the
special operations groups and plays a key role in declaring and
implementing emergency measures. In addition, legislation was
passed earlier this week outlining procedures for declarin
emergencies in all or part of the country.
Countering Walesa's Influence
The authorities have renewed their public criticism of Walesa,
probably hoping to counteract the favorable publicity he will receive
when his wife accepts his Nobel Peace Prize on Saturday.
Walesa recognizes that his goals cannot be achieved soon, but he
apparently believes he has to keep up pressure on the authorities until
they realize that current policies cannot work and that compromises
are necessary. He has openly stated, however, that he is opposed to
demonstrations.
The government probably believes that Walesa's program will
become widely known, even though he will not be allowed to address
workers on 16 December. It also has sought to belittle Walesa's call
for an easing of Western sanctions, because it fears that a positive
Western response would increase his prestige.
Prospects
Recent events clearly indicate that the population remains deeply
alienated and that, when threatened, the authorities will return to
proven tactics of intimidation. Although some demonstrations are
likely in the next few weeks, they should not pose a serious challenge
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to the regime. The authorities may be more hard pressed to deal with
the sporadic strikes or protests that result from austerity measures or
from the action of local officials.
To forestall such problems, the authorities might postpone
temporarily the imposition of price increases apparently scheduled for
early next month. A lengthy postponement or even cancellation of the
increases, however, is unlikely. Either move would disrupt efforts to
stabilize the economy and create the impression that the regime can
be swayed by public pressure.
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