NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 1 OCTOBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 63
• Publication Date: October 1, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
EILICt-~ Director of
Central
ICI Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
1 October 1983
Top Secret
Copy 2 8 5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
Top Secret
Contents
Philippines: Demonstrations Continue .................................. 1
UK: Labor Party Conference .................................................... 4
Lebanon: Growing Unrest Among Christians .......................... 5
Netherlands-Lebanon: Participation in UNIFIL ...................... 5
Mozambique-Western Europe: Machel's Tour ...................... 6
Chile: Talks Resume ................................................................ 6
Pakistan: Status of Local Elections ........................................ 7
Argentina: Loan Disbursement Suspended ............................ 7
Italy-USSR: Decreased Dependence on Soviet Gas .............. 8
Western Europe-Turkey: Council of Europe's Warning ........ 8
West Germany-US: President Carstens's Visit ...................... 9
Kenya: Election Implications .................................................... 9
Top Secret
1 October 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
Too Secret
United Nationalist Democratic Organization leader Laurel
announced yesterday that protests and prayer rallies demanding the
resignation of President Marcos will continue. The Justice for Aquino,
Justice for All opposition alliance is planning a large labor rally next
week. The May First Organization, a C - ' rated labor
alliance, is to lead the demonstration.
PHILIPPINES: Demonstrations Continue
government restrictions on rallies and marches.
Antigovernment demonstrations are continuing in Manila, but
security forces are dealing firmly with groups that do not obey new
An unauthorized demonstration held yesterday in the financial
district was broken up by riot police. A demonstration held downtown
by 5,000 students, however, ended peacefully. Student organizers
had obtained government approval for the rally.
deal harshly with them
Comment: Marcos's resolve to stop unauthorized
demonstrations will be tested in the weeks ahead, as moderate
opposition groups plan mass actions. Although officials of the Justice
for Aquino alliance claim they will seek advance permits for their
rallies, other opposition groups may not. If unauthorized
demonstrations attract large numbers of people, Marcos probably will
Tot) Secret
25X1
25X1
1 1 October 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
UK: Labor Party Conference
The expected round of clashes between moderates and leftists at
the Labor Party conference beginning tomorrow could be decisive in
shaping the party's direction and its relationship with the trade unions.
Executive Committee and will debate party rules and policy questions.
The party leader and the deputy leader are to be chosen at the
annual conference. Trade union bloc votes are usually decisive.
Moderates and leftists will compete for control of the party's National
Comment: Leftwinger Neil Kinnock is the heavy favorite to
become party leader, and only the race for the deputy post between
moderate Roy Hattersley and leftist Michael Meacher will be intense.
A group of moderate Labor MPs is threatening to leave the party if the
left sweeps the election. A number of union leaders and Kinnock
himself also have indicated that Hattersley's election is in the interest
of party u and he currently appears to have the lead over
Meacher.
left.
The struggle for control of the National Executive Committee
probably will be as important as the leadership contests. Many of the
trade unions moved somewhat to the right at their conference earlier
this month, and a continued leftward drift by the party would threaten
to open a wider breech between it and the unions that fund it.
Nevertheless, the left has a good chance to recapture control of
the National Executive Committee. This would undercut efforts to
modify policy stands or to change current party rules that favor the
to leftwing positions.
Many leftwingers, however, are unconvinced that Labor's support
for unpopular policies was responsible for the election defeat in June.
Moderates will still find it difficult to temper the party's commitment
continued membership in the EC and some other issues.
positions. He has indicated that he is ready to compromise_v_n
The policy debates may provide an indication of Kinnock's ability
and willingness to move Labor away from electorally unappealing
Top Secret
4 1 October 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
LEBANON: Growing Unrest Among Christians
US Embassy sources say Christians in East Beirut are bitter and
suspicious that the ase-fire is an deal made at their
expense. - Christian militias,
dissatisfied with their weak negotiating position, could force a
Christian boycott of the national dialogue. A Sunni Muslim
spokesman also has expressed concern that Christian discontent
could undermine the prospects of any national reconcili tine taikc
Comment: Christian militia extremists almost certainly believe
that the recent fighting has left them weaker than the Druze and the
Muslims. The extremists, fearing that political reforms would threaten
traditional Christian predominance in Lebanon, may try to sabotage
any national dialogue aimed at redistributin olitic I wer among
the country's factional groups.
NETHERLANDS-LEBANON: Participation in UNIFIL
The Dutch seem ready to leave a token force of up to 150 troops
in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon. The Hague had
planned to pull out all 800 men on 19 October, but it has reconsidered
after being asked recently by the US and by Egypt and other Middle
Eastern governments to help maintain the unity of the force. The US
Embassy reports that defense spokesmen of the three major parties
will support a reduced presence as long as Dutch troops are not
stationed in particularly dangerous areas.
Comment: Dutch leaders are likely to hope that this compromise
will satisfy critics who are worried about the cost of maintaining a
large contingent in Lebanon as well as UN allies who are concerned
that withdrawal of the Dutch contingent could prompt the withdrawal
of others. The support in Parliament for a token force probably will
encourage the cabinet to give its approval. The Dutch will remain
skeptical of the usefulness of their troops in Lebanon, however, and
will be quick to reassess their commitment if the troops sustain
Top Secret
5 1 October 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
Top Secret
President Machel arrives in Belgium on Monday, where his
agenda includes talks with EC officials. He also plans to visit Portugal,
the Netherlands, the UK, France, and Yugoslavia. The primary
purpose of the trip is to seek increased Western economic
involvement in Mozambique. Mozambique reportedly has asked the
EC for privileged observer status next week at the negotiations on
trade between the Community and Third World countries.
cooperation.
Comment:) Ithe USSR's
failure to provide significant economic help has persuaded the
President to improve relations with the West. Machel is most likely to
receive help from Portugal. His discussions in Lisbon are likely to
focus on increased bilateral economic relations and military
Representatives of the opposition Democratic Alliance and of the
government have resumed the dialogue that was suspended following
antigovernment demonstrations last month. Both sides describe the
new round of talks as satisfactory. Alliance leader Valdes says he has
submitted a number of proposals to Interior Minister Jarpa that would
speed the return to democracy and address some of the economic
problems that have prompted the unrest. According to press reports,
Valdes is calling for a plebiscite next year that would lead to a
constituent assembly and constitutional reform.
Comment: Both Jarpa and the Alliance had feared that a
continued impasse in the talks would have allowed the radical left to
seize the initiative from the government and the moderates. The
resumption of talks will help the Alliance regain some lost momentum
and may help moderate the tone of future protests. President
Pinochet has been reluctant to agree to a plebiscite soon, however,
and discussions on this roposal probably will be long and difficult.
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
25X1
6 1 October 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
Top Secret
25X1
Soviet Union
an ilstan
China
Indian claim
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
Toy Secret
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
Top Secret
PAKISTAN: Status of Local Elections
Local elections have been marred by violence in Sind Province,
where official sources acknowledge 17 demonstrators and one
security officer were killed on Thursday, while press sources report
clashes involving more than 100 casualties. Preliminary reports
indicate a moderate turnout in Karachi, but many voters in rural Sind
stayed home. The government still intends to complete balloting
tomorrow, even in the most disaffected districts of the province. The
US Consulate General in Lahore reports that most voters in Punjab
Province ignored calls by the opposition to boycott the elections.
Punjab.
Comment: The virtually trouble-free voting in Punjab is a victory
for President Zia. It probably will dampen opposition there
temporarily and permit Zia to concentrate on problems in Sind. The
elections in rural Sind are likely to be at least partly disrupted and
largely discredited in the eyes of most Sindhis. The continuation of
violence and disaffection there will give additional hope to Zia's
opponents and raise doubts about his leadership, eventually even in
ARGENTINA: Loan Disbursement Suspended
issues of national sovereignty
The US Embassy reports that foreign commercial banks have
suspended disbursement of a $1.5 billion loan to Argentina. The move
follows a court injunction this week against an agreement to
reschedule debts of the state airline, which was a prerequisite for the
initial disbursement of the loan. Moreover, the injunction temporarily
forbids all discussions on refinancing public debt. President Bignone
has indicated that he will respect the injunction because it concerns
new economic crisis for the next government
Comment: Bignone may see the injunction as a means of
delaying the politically contentious debt rescheduling issue until
civilians take over following elections on 30 October. Without new
loans, however, the possibility of a bank-declared default will grow as
Argentina falls further behind in its payments on the public debt.
Economy Minister Wehbe may resign if he cannot get the debt
rescheduled as planned. His departure would be regarded as
indicating an end to the financial discipline that is needed to prevent a
Top Secret
1 October 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
Top Secret
ITALY-USSR: Decreased Dependence on Soviet Gas
Italian energy officials, according to US Embassy sources, have
decided to keep domestic natural gas production at existing levels
over the next few years. The decision reverses the national energy
strategy of conserving domestic gas resources and increasing
imports. Rome believes that it can recover more domestic gas than
previously estimated, and it wants to increase the profits of Italy's
state energy company.
Comment: Italy will need less additional gas from the USSR if it
produces more itself, particularly in view of the lower demand now
being forecast. On the other hand, broader political and economic
considerations could still weigh heavily. Many businessmen believe
that Soviet purchases of Italian equipment may depend on gas
contracts. Even if Rome does not agree now to buy more Soviet gas,
it is likely to increase purchases from the USSR when its supplies
become less adequate.
WESTERN EUROPE-TURKEY: Council of Europe's Warning
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe this week
adopted a resolution criticizing laws promulgated under Turkey's new
constitution and calling for a "genuine democracy" for the Turkish
people. The resolution suggests that the Assembly may not seat a
delegation from Ankara at its session next January or that it might
move to expel the Turks from the Council. Although the Assembly
expressed concern about procedures for Turkey's parliamentary
elections in November, it refrained from prejudging the results.
Comment: By avoiding a final decision, the Assembly apparently
has given Ankara a last chance to reestablish its democratic
credentials with the parliamentary elections in November. The
passage of the resolution by a substantial majority, however,
suggests that failure by Ankara to satisfy the Council's criteria for
democratic elections will result in exclusion. The Turks probably will
react cautiously to avoid fomenting more criticism in Western Europe
as the election campaigning begins.
Too Secret
8 1 October 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
Top Secret
WEST GERMANY-US: President Carstens's Visit
President Carstens's official visit to the US next week coincides
with the beginning of activities in this country commemorating the
300th anniversary of German immigration to America.
Comment: Carstens will be anxious to use the opportunity to
stress the positive aspects of bilateral relations. To counter anti-US
declarations by vocal extremists in West Germany, he is likely to
reemphasize West Germany's commitment to the Western alliance
and its reliability as a partner of the US. Carstens, formerly a ranking
Christian Democratic Party leader, will vacate his largely ceremonial
but prestigious post next year. Several senior politicians are already
vying to succeed him.
KENYA: Election Implications
The results of the election held last Monday show that President
Moi has majority support in parliament but that disenchantment is
growing among the Kikuyu-the largest and most influential tribe.
Only 40 percent of the electorate voted-a 20-percent decrease from
the election in 1979. About 60 percent of the Kikuyu members of
parliament were voted out of office.
Comment: Kikuyu voters apparently want their newly elected
representatives to take a more aggressive stand in defense of tribal
interests. Moi, however, probably will reduce the number of Kikuyus
in his cabinet, thereby increasing disaffection in the tribe and
heightening its sense of isolation.
Top Secret
9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020063-1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1
1 on Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/11: CIA-RDP85TO1094R000500020063-1