NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 6 AUGUST 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010023-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 2010
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: August 6, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
CCFAS/CIG
C1 265
Top Secre!
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
6 August 1983
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Contents
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Upper Volta: Leftist Leader in Control .................................... 2
USSR: Economic Reform Proposal ........................................ 3
Ell Salvador: Fighting in the Northeast .................................... 4
North Korea-South Korea: Failed Infiltration Attempt .......... 5
USSR-Cuba: Delivery of Drydock ............................................
Bulgaria-USSR: Zhivkov's Comments On Andropov .............. 9
Oman-Israel-Egypt: Appeal for Conciliation .......................... 10
International: Exchange Market Intervention ........................ 11
Uruguay: Ban on Political Activity .......................................... 11
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6 August 1983
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Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
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Former Prime Minister Sankara's coup appears to have
succeeded, and outward calm has returned to Ouagadougou.
Fighting in the capital ended yesterday, with about 20 casualties
reported, including some civilians. According to the US Embassy, US
citizens have not been harmed.
Sankara claimed he seized power because the former pro-French
government betrayed "progressive" objectives by allying itself with
conservative elements. Although former President Ouedraogo is
under house arrest, several key military members of his regime
remain at large.
Troops loyal to Sankara, equipped with arms supplied by Libya
last spring, met little resistance from disorganized government forces.
Neither Tripoli nor Paris has react
publicly to the coup. (S NF NC OC)
Comment: The advent of a pro-Libyan regime in Upper Volta will
further strain relations between France and Libya. Although France is
not obligated by treaty to intervene in Upper Volta, it will come under
strong pressure to do so by the conservative, pro-Western Presidents
of Ivory Coast, Togo, and Niger. All fear the expansion of Libyan
influence.
The extent of Libya's involvement in the coup is unclear, but
Libyan leader Qadhafii may now-try to mount an airlift of arms and
possibly advisers to Ouagadougou to ensure Sankara's hold on
power. As a result of its growing involvement in Chad, however,
Tripoli probably would be able to provide only limited support to
Ouagadougou.
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2 6 August 1983
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USSR: Economic Reform Proposal
A paper presented to an economic conference in April-copies of
which were leaked to some Western newsmen in Moscow this week-
declares that the 50-year-old system of centralized controls is the
cause of the USSR's economic slowdown and implies that the
leadership will have to engage in "conflict" with entrenched interest
groups to reverse the situation.
The paper was prepared by a group of economists from the
Siberian Division of the Academy of Sciences in Novosibirsk. The
mentor of this group is academician Abel Aganbegyan, whose incisive
criticism of the USSR's economic failings has agitated Soviet officials
from time to time for almost 20 years. In the 1960s one of
Aganbegyan's defenders wrote in a Soviet newspaper that his critics
had "practically accused him of sedition."
Comment: Judging from available excerpts, the current paper
calls for extensive decentralization of planning and decisionmaking
authority in the economy. Such moves would be intended to release
the "creative energies" of those groups in the lower management
levels that are interested in innovation and progress. The paper also
takes the unusual step of calling for "immobilizing" those higher level
administrators who prefer that the current system continue.
General Secretary Andropov probably does not directly support
all of the paper's conclusions. Its authors are likely to have been
emboldened to make them, however, by public statements by
Andropov and his former rival Chernenko that the USSR should
examine proposals that seem to contest long-accepted policies. The
paper fits that category.
Top Secret
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EL SALVADOR: Fighting in the Northeast
The insurgents have attacked a key government outpost in
western Morazan Department.
US defense attache reports indicate that
an estimated 500 to 700 guerrillas engaged government troops
supported by artillery and airstrikes earlier this week near Cerro
Cacahuatique, where a strategic military communications station is
located. According to the attache, elements of two government
battalions are moving toward the area from the northeast.
Comment: The insurgents need a major victory soon to help
regain the militar initiative and to stem the growing confidence of the
Army.
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NORTH KOREA-SOUTH KOREA: Failed Infiltration Attempt
The South Koreans are claiming that the unsuccessful North
Korean infiltration attempt yesterday is part of P'yongyang's plan to
use terrorism to obstruct the Inter-Parliamentary Union conference
At least three North Korean agents were killed yesterday while
trying to infiltrate by sea on the southeast coast of South Korea. A
South Korean patrol boat was sunk in the clash, but its crew
reportedly was rescued.
Comment: Seoul used similar terms in June to characterize an
infiltration attempt near the DMZ. In recent months President Chun
has expressed his concern about possible North Korean terrorism,
but a number of South Korean officials doubt that P'yongyang would
North Korean infiltration during warm months is not unusual.
Agents are charged with a variety of missions, often to contact
resident agents or reconnoiter military installations.
P'yongyang nevertheless is waging a diplomatic and propaganda
campaign in Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere to discourage
participation in the IPU meeting. While at least 47 of the 98 IPU
members have indicated they will send delegations to Seoul, five
Third World countries have publicly joined the North Korean boycott.
Top Secret
5 6 August 1983
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USSR-CUBA: Delivery of Drydock
the
Soviets have delivered a floating drydock with a 4,500-ton lift
capability to the Punta Movida Naval Base on Cuba's southern coast.
Cuba now has at least four drydocks for naval and commercial use.
Comment: The new drydock provides the first capability outside
Havana for the repair of the Cuban Navy's warships. It is part of the
general expansion and improvement of several Cuban naval facilities.
The drydock is large enough to accommodate the frigate and the
F-class submarine stationed at Punta Movida. It also could handle
some of the Soviet ships that periodically visit the island. To date,
however, no Soviet warship has been repaired in Cuba
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BULGARIA-USSR: Zhivkov's Comments on Andropov
Bulgarian General Secretary Zhivkov, in discussions with the US
Ambassador this week, talked about General Secretary Andropov
with little apparent enthusiasm. Zhivkov alleged that the Soviet leader
could not deviate from courses set by the collective leadership
because he would "immediately collide" with the Central Committee
and with Warsaw Pact leaders. He implied that Western allegations of
Bulgarian complicity in the attempted assassination of the Pope had
complicated his relations with Andropov.
Comment: Zhivkov's attitude toward Andropov supports earlier
indications that relations between the two are strained. The Soviets
have voiced concern about Bulgarian nationalism, and they have
intensified their pressure on Sofia to spend more on defense and to
become more active in CEMA. Nevertheless, the overall basis of
Soviet-Bulgarian relations remains solid.
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9 6 August 1983
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OMAN-ISRAEL-EGYPT: Appeal for Conciliation
Omani Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Alawi, during a press
conference in Kuwait on Tuesday, repeatedly called on Arabs to seek
conciliation with a permanently strong Israel and to end their boycott
of Egypt. Alawi argued that, although the US was biased toward
Israel, Arab interests dictate good relations with the US. At the same
time, Alawi said that Oman would not unilaterally recognize Israel.
Comment: Alawi's statements almost certainly were approved or
even initiated by Sultan Qaboos. They appear aimed at advancing
Oman as a more important spokesman for the Persian Gulf states,
which see themselves threatened by Syria's intransigence on
Lebanon, the PLO, and the war between Iran and Iraq. The Omanis
evidently took the initiative without prior consultation with Saudi
Arabia. Oman is virtually alone among the Arab states in supporting
the Camp David accords, and it is one of only three Arab countries to
maintain full diplomatic relations with Egypt.
Top Secret
10 6 August 1983
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INTERNATIONAL: Exchange Market Intervention
The currencies of most industrial countries have continued to
decline against the US dollar, despite foreign exchange market
intervention by US, Japanese, West German, French, and Swiss
central banks. Last week the dollar hit an all-time high against the
French franc and the Italian lira, while posting a nine-year high against
the West German mark. The dollar also continued to climb against the
other currencies in the European Monetary System. The financial
press attributed the dollar's stength to expectations of further
Comment: Foreign governments are likely to renew attacks on
US economic policies if interest and exchange rates fail to stabilize
soon. The French Finance Minister has stated publicly that the
dollar's rise means that US pledges of cooperation at the
Williamsburg Summit were hollow. The Bank of Canada probably will
continue to stabilize the Canadian dollar's exchange rate by allowing
URUGUAY: Ban on Political Activity
The indefinite ban on all political activity announced earlier this
week by the military government could be challenged today if the
Communists and several other minor political groups carry out their
reported plans to stage a demonstration. The announcement followed
a breakdown in constitutional negotiations between the military and
major political parties over guarantees for the armed forces to deal
with subversion, once the civilians return to power.
Comment: Security forces probably will use force to break up any
political rallies. The ban's severe limits will increase pessimism in
political circles regarding effective party participation in the elections
next year. Military officers remain committed both publicly and
privately to a return to civilian rule, but they are determined to control
the transition and protect their prerogatives under a civilian
government. Without any leverage, the political parties are unlikely to
take on the regime openly and may use international forums to
criticize the government's actions.
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11 6 August 1983
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