NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 18 JULY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010188-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 19, 2010
• Sequence Number: 188
• Publication Date: July 18, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Ill) Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Monday
18 July 1983
Top Secret
CPAS NID 83-167JX
16 July 1983
Copy 2 P -5
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Contents
Chad: Progress in East ............................................................ 1
Canada: Opposition to Cruise Missile Decision ...................... 2
USSR: Status of Gas Export Pipeline ...................................... 6
USSR-US: Editorial on START Position .................................. 8
West Germany: Conservatives Attack Strauss's Policies ...... 8
EC: Reaction Against US Specialty Steel Measures .............. 9
International: Socialist Action on Central America ................ 9
Poland: Walesa's Future Activities .......................................... 10
Ethiopia-Somalia: Border Flareup .......................................... 11
Portugal: Tackling Economic Problems .................................. 11
UK: Cuts in Defense Budget .................................................... 12
Indonesia-UK: Arms Purchase Negotiations .......................... 12
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18 July 1983
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CHAD: Progress in East
President Habre's forces still retain the initiative in the east, but
both sides are experiencing logistic and resupply problems.
The OAU issued a pro forma statement on Chad over the
weekend calling for an end to hostilities and foreign intervention and
for Chad's factions to reconcile; the government rejected the call.
Two French KC-135 tanker aircraft recently were sent to Gabon to
support a squadron of Jaguar fighters already in Libreville for use
should Paris decide to intervene in Chad. About five truckloads of UN
food are now arriving daily in N'Djamena from Nigeria.
Comment: Habre's presence at the front and his skilled tactics,
together with French arms and advisers, have for now reversed the
fortunes of the overextended rebels. But Habre's endurance in battles
to come depends in large part on adequate suppl I' es because the
rebels still are superior in numbers and firepower.
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CANADA: Opposition to Cruise Missile Decision
Canada's domestic peace movement will continue its vigorous
opposition to testing US air-launched cruise missiles in Canada,
despite Ottawa's announcement on Friday that it will permit such tests.
The Canadian Peace Congress-the country's largest peace
organization and often the spokesman for the domestic peace
movement as a whole-immediately condemned the decision and
announced it would try to organize nationwide protests against cruise
missiles during the week of 6-13 August. Another peace group,
Operation Dismantle, said it would seek a court injunction to block
testing. In addition, a spokesman for the United Church, Canada's
largest Protestant denomination, called testing a sin and urged all
church members to protest the decision to their parliamentary
representatives.
Comment: Although Ottawa's approval was expected, the final
cabinet meeting was significantly longer than usual, suggesting that
there continues to be considerable opposition to testing within the
government. In announcing the decision, in fact, External Affairs
Minister MacEachen apparently bowed both to the dissenters within
the government and to the domestic peace movement by indicating
that the decision would be subject to review and possibly to alteration
should "an important development" occur in the arms control
negotiations in Geneva.
Prime Minister Trudeau has consistently identified cruise missile
testing as an essential aspect of Canada's contribution to NATO.
Without a breakthrough in Geneva, his government probably will
stand by its decision to test, whatever the level of opposition-both
within the government and from the public.
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2 18 July 1983
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USSR: Status of Gas Export Pipeline
Pipelaying operations on the USSR's gas export pipeline are
likely to be finished by this fall.
Soviet media reported recently that all but 50 kilometers of the
pipeline have been welded into a continuous strand and that less than
200 kilometers still need to be laid. The media also report that over
3,000 kilometers of the 4,451-kilometer-long pipeline have been
tested, including most of the difficult eastern portion of the route from
Urengoy to the Urals.
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By the end of this year, the Soviets plan to have 18 compressor
stations in operation.
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The media have reported, however, that a lack of
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support infrastucture is hampering construction at some sites.
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Ithe media claims probably are fairly accurate.
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The Soviets are unlikely, however, to complete 18 compressor
stations by the end of 1983.
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Nevertheless, the pipeline could be operate
d at less than full
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almost certainly will be enough compressor power on line to meet
delivery obligations to Western Europe in 1984.
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An authoritative Pravda editorial on Saturday contrasted official
Soviet START negotiating proposals, which it said would result in
warhead ceilings below current US levels, with US proposals that it
charged would result in a race to increase warhead totals. The
editorial called the US willingness to consider limits on ICBMs and
SLBMs above the 850 level an attempt to provide for new US ICBM
programs. It also asserted that the US proposal for a reduction in
ballistic missile warheads to 5,000 units would exclude "more than
12,000" cruise missiles it said the US was planning to deploy.
Comment: The apparent purpose of the editorial is to undercut
what Moscow probably considers one of the US START team's
strongest and most publicly effective positions-its emphasis on the
need for deep reductions in ballistic missile warhead numbers to
make the nuclear balance more stable. The editorial's appearance
now suggests that Moscow is trying to build on the generally
favorable reception that the Western press has accorded rumors of
recently submitted Soviet proposals for reductions in the number of
strategic launchers.
Rightwing forces at the Christian Social Union's annual congress,
meeting in Munich, have expressed their displeasure with party
chairman Strauss's role in arranging a $400 million loan for East
Germany. Strauss was reelected to his post by only 662 of the
949 delegates-his worst showing in 22 years as party leader. The
conservatives, who had long followed Strauss's hardline rhetoric on
intra-German matters, were shocked that he had apparently
abandoned his demands for measures in return for any West German
concessions.
Comment: Strauss will attempt to vindicate his Ostpolitik this
week during visits to Poland and East Germany, where he plans to
meet with East German leader Honecker concerning East German
concessions. The conservatives' protest may actually have
strengthened Strauss's negotiating position. If, as expected, East
Berlin agrees to concessions on travel and other personal contacts,
Strauss not only will have justified himself to the conservatives, but he
also will have enhanced his stature as an influence on foreign policy.
Top Secret
8 18 July 1983
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EC: Reaction Against US Specialty Steel Measures
Today's EC Council meeting is expected to announce retaliatory
measures in response to new US restrictions on specialty steel
imports. EC Industry Commissioner Davignon has warned US officials
that the reaction will be sharp. The UK and West Germany have been
the harshest critics among the member states. According to the US
Embassy in London, Robin Gray, Deputy Secretary of the British
Department of Trade and Industry, is urging for the Community to
show the US that protectionism is not cost free.
Comment: At a minimum the EC will formally announce plans to
seek compensation for the new trade restrictions under provisions of
the GATT. Some form of direct reprisal against US industrial products
entering the Community also is possible. Moreover, the French are
pressing for limits on imports of US agricultural products, such as
corn gluten. Most EC members are not yet prepared to expand the
dispute beyond industrial products.
INTERNATIONAL: Socialist Action on Central America
Socialist International leaders have
decided to encourage the US, the USSR, and Cuba to reduce their
military assistance in Central America. The leaders believe that war
between Honduras and Nicaragua is imminent and that unpredictable
changes in the region are likely to result. Although the Socialist
International leadership has become disenchanted with the
Sandinistas' failure to fulfill the promises of their revolution, it does
not plan to withdraw support for Managua. The message to Nicaragua
on the anniversary of the revolution, however, will urge the
Sandinistas to develop a constitution guaranteeing civil and political
rights and an early election.
Comment: The decision by the leadership of Socialist
International to put pressure on the USSR and Cuba is a departure
from previous policy, which tended to ignore Soviet and Cuban
military intervention in the Third World. This new policy is likely to be
opposed by many members, but, if a consensus should be achieved,
the Socialist International probably would adopt a low-key approach
stressing the two countries' economic self-interest in avoiding a war
in Central America. In addition to their genuine concern about
increasing tensions in Central America, the leaders also may fear that
a war between Nicaragua and Honduras would further divide the
Socialist International by deepening differences between various
members' positions on Nicaragua.
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POLAND: Walesa's Future Activities
the former Solidarity
leader has little hope of persuading the authorities to open a dialogue
but believes he still has to act as a spokesman for workers. Walesa
recognizes the regime is too strong and has dismissed the idea of
leading a general strike. He also has rejected the notion of
joining any Church-sponsored organization and does not share the
interest of some colleagues in strengthening the underground.
Nonetheless, Walesa still believes he has to speak out, from time to
time, and was "livid" at the rumors that the Pope had asked him to
step aside.
Comment: Walesa is clearly frustrated by the many constraints
on him and is still searching for a role. Although he has previously
threatened to go underground, he probably believes that option is
inappropriate for someone of his stature and also could eventually
lead to imprisonment. His recent decision to take unauthorized leave
from his job at the Gdansk shipyard apparently is in part an attempt
to counter talk of his political retreat.
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Djibouti
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18 July 1983
Names and boundary representation
are not necessarily authoritative.
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ETHIOPIA-SOMALIA: Border Flareup
President Siad claimed yesterday that Somali reinforcements had
forced Ethiopian and dissident troops to pull back in the area around
Mataban, where they had launched an attack on Saturday.
The US Embassy described Siad as distraught
and demoralized yesterday as he expressed his concern that much
heavier Ethiopian attacks would now be launched against other
targets along the border.
Comment: The attack clearly is an escalation in the border
fighting, but it is doubtful that Ethiopia has launched a major
offensive.
some Ethiopian units are likely to have backed dissident forces in a
border incursion, perhaps aimed at giving the dissidents a
propaganda victory in a normally quiet area before a conference they
have planned for tomorrow. It is unlikely that Chairman Mengistu-
now seeking famine relief assistance from the West and, as chairman
of the OAU, heavily preoccupied with discussions on Chad and
Western Sahara-would begin a major operation against Somalia
now. There is danger, however, of increased fighting resulting from a
mutual misreading of intentions.
PORTUGAL: Tackling Economic Problems
The Socialist-Social Democratic coalition government has taken
a number of politically sensitive measures, after less than a month in
office, to revive the economy. Lisbon has devalued the escudo by 12
percent, increased food and fuel prices, and frozen investments by
the state for two months. The government has won overwhelming
parliamentary approval for a plan to open to private competition the
nationalized sectors of the banking, insurance, cement, and fertilizer
industries. A bill is pending to allow the government to rule b decree
during the legislature's summer recess.____________________
Comment: The delay on the decree law may reflect parliament's
reluctance to give up its power to authorize some key measures. The
government wants to use the decree powers to take unpopular
actions, including establishing uniform work hours, shifting the
emphasis in agriculture away from collective farms, and possibly
modifying labor laws to allow companies to lay off workers during
recessions. The Communists, working through the labor unions, are
planning strikes and demonstrations this fall to protest these
measures.
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UK: Cuts in Defense Budget
The government of Prime Minister Thatcher has announced a cut
of some $360 million from-its 1983-84 defense budget. The reduction
represents only 1.5 percent of the $24 billion budget. At the same
time, the Defense Ministry won the right to carry over unspent funds
from the previous fiscal year, and the UK representative to NATO has
noted that this will help to make up for some of the funds lost. The
representative also said the cuts would not affect major equipment
programs.
Comment: Although the amount of the cut is not large, it does
show that defense is not immune from Thatcher's austerity program.
Despite the cut, real growth in defense spending should still be
slightly above the NATO goal of 3 percent annually.
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INDONESIA-UK: Arms Purchase Negotiations
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