NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 23 MAY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010003-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: May 23, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
Top Ceoret
National Intelligence Daily
Monday
23 May 1983
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CPAS N1
23 May 1983
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Contents
Ell Salvador: Extreme Rightist Activity ....................................
West Germany: Opposition to Trade Restrictions ..................
EC: Foreign Ministers' Meeting ..............................................
Zimbabwe-US-USSR: Strained Relations .............................. 6
Argentina: Safeguards at Newest Power Reactor .................. 7
USSR-Angola: Results of dos Santos's Visit ..........................
Malawi: Violent Political Purge ................................................ 9
Australia: Proposal for Nuclear-Free Zone ............................ 10
Iran-Japan: Petroleum-Related Deals .................................... 10
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EL SALVADOR: Extreme Rightist Activity
. Assembly leader D'Aubuisson has indicated that elements of the
military and security forces are engaging in illegal actions against
alleged subversives.
D'Aubuisson has told a US official that military and security
personnel are planning to eliminate suspected leftists. He noted that
corruption and political pressures often protect insurgent
sympathizers in their operations and said that safeguarding human
rights is impossible as long as the war continues. The Assembly
leader also advocated a more aggressive war strategy, including
"extra-official" operations.
Meanwhile, Col. Nicolas Carranza, who has extensive ties to
D'Aubuisson, is lobbying to be named Armed Forces Chief of Staff.
Carranza has a reputation as a strong leader but was isolated by
former Defense Minister Garcia, who felt threatened by his political
ambitions and feared he would undercut efforts to keep the military
out of partisan politics.
Comment: D'Aubuisson's candid admissions-which are tacit
support for the existence of death squads-may also reflect the belief
that the extreme right can expand its influence now that Garcia has
been replaced as defense minister by the less dynamic General Vides.
Moreover, chances are increasing that extreme rightist violence will
escalate as political prisoners are released under the new amnesty
law.
Carranza's lobbying may become a serious dilemma for Vides.
The Defense Minister probably recognizes that Carranza's presence
on the General Staff might help him conduct a more aggressive war
strategy. At the same time, the appointment of Carranza to a high
military post probably would result in renewed politicization of the
armed forces.
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WEST GERMANY: Opposition to Trade Restrictions
West German Government and industry officials are increasing
their criticism of revisions to the Export Control Act that are currently
under consideration by the US Congress.
Economics Minister Lambsdorff, in an interview in a West German
financial periodical, said West Germany considers the Act
unacceptable. Bonn particularly opposes the extraterritorial
provisions, which would penalize US companies' European
subsidiaries that do not comply with US controls on East-West trade.
Lambsdorff said his country wants to avoid a repetition of the dispute
last year over pipeline sanctions and will make its position clear to US
officials at all levels, including at the Williamsburg Summit
Bonn is under pressure from West German industry, especially
the machine tool sector, to resist US provisions that would restrict its
trade with the East. The Eastern market accounts for up to 50 percent
of sales for some firms, and industry officials are especially concerned
about provisions that would require-on a case-by-case basis-proof
that the exports do not improve Soviet military or strategic
capabilities. They would prefer that the burden of proof rest with
those seeking to restrict technology transfer
Opposition to the proposed provisions of the Export Control Act
is the majority view in all West German political parties. This view is
reflected in a recent West German economic study, which claims that
a technology embargo could seriously affect certain civilian sectors in
the USSR but would have little effect on Soviet arms production.
Comment: West Germany's concern about the Act is shared by
other European countries and could seriously hamper efforts to reach
an accommodation on East-West trade issues in OECD, COCOM, and
NATO studies now under way. In addition, many West German
officials have commented that a dispute similar to the one over
pipeline sanctions would do irreparable harm to US-European
industrial cooperation.
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EC: Foreign Ministers' Meeting
EC Foreign Ministers are to convene tomorrow in Brussels to '
discuss budgetary problems and prospects for improving foreign
policy coordination.
West German Foreign Minister Genscher, who will preside at the
two-day session, is expected to call for reactions to an EC
Commission proposal to increase the ceilings on country payments to
the budget by as much as 40 percent. The increases would be directly
linked to benefits received from agricultural subsidies and to each
member's wealth.
The budget proposal does not directly curb farm spending, a key
demand of both West Germany and the UK. In addition, it increases
substantially the contributions from Denmark, the Netherlands, and
Luxembourg.
The Foreign Ministers also will debate the Solemn European
Declaration, which seeks to bind the existing informal system of
foreign policy coordination to the EC's formal institutions. The
declaration calls for more frequent use of voting by majority instead
of by consensus in EC polic making and for increasing the powers of
the European Parliament
Passage of the declaration-which would require unanimous
approval-is opposed by Denmark and Greece. They insist on
maintaining consensus as the basis for EC policies.
Comment: Both issues are contentious, and little progress is
expected on either. Unless a budget adjustment is agreed on soon,
however, EC funds could run out next year.
The declaration on foreign policy coordination would do little to
foster a common position for the Community's members. It has been
heavily amended and largely amounts to a statement of existing
practices.
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USSR reflect Harare's conflicting foreign policy objectives.
The anti-US positions that Zimbabwe has taken since becoming a
member of the UN Security Council in January have increased strains
in bilateral relations. Although US demarches persuaded Zimbabwe
to tone down its rhetoric during the recent debate in the Security
Council on Central America, it did not change its pro-Nicaraguan
stance. Anti-US statements continue to appear frequently in
Zimbabwe's government-controlled media despite several protests
by the US Embassy.
Comment: Zimbabwe's desire to demonstrate its credentials as a
progressive state conflicts with its efforts to maintain close ties with
Western aid donors. The Foreign Minister's recent statement that
Zimbabwe would lose its freedom of action if Harare were to bend
"even once" to Western pressure suggests that this need for self-
assertion will continue to trouble relations with the US.
Mugabe's distrust of the Soviets-which stems from Moscow's
backing of his guerrilla rivals during the civil war-hampers
Zimbabwe's efforts to use relations with the USSR to pain leverage
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ARGENTINA: Safeguards at Newest Power Reactor
Argentina's newest nuclear power reactor will operate for at least
a year without complete safeguards monitoring by the IAEA.
The US Embassy reports that the Argentines reached an
agreement with the IAEA late last month to put Canadian-designed
surveillance equipment into operation when their new heavy water
reactor begins commercial operation. The Agency, however, acceded
to Argentina's demand not to use the information derived by the
equipment to make a positive finding of any diversions of nuclear fuel
from the reactor for at least a year.
Nevertheless, the IAEA expects to be able to use the information
from the surveillance equipment to alert it to a potential problem. At
that point, it could make a statement that it is unable to assure that it
can account for all nuclear material. The reactor began operation in
March without safeguards and is expected to achieve full commercial
power by November.
Argentina had originally agreed to the special safeguards
monitoring procedures, which are currently in operation at three
Canadian-designed reactors in other countries. More than a year ago,
however, Buenos Aires began maneuvering in negotiations with the
IAEA to avoid accepting the arrangement.
Comment: Argentina's unwillingness to abide by the data from
the new safeguards equipment will make it more difficult to certify a,
fuel diversion if one takes place. Monitoring the movement of fuel into
and out of these reactors is difficult, making it easier to obtain
plutonium by secretly irradiating fuel.
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USSR-ANGOLA: Results of dos Santos's Visit
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President dos Santos evidently sought to reassure the Soviets
during his visit to Moscow last week that his discussions with the US
on southern African issues do not mean Angola is shifting toward the
West. The US Embassy in Moscow reports that the joint communique
issued at the end of the visit took a much stronger stand against the
US and its policies toward southern Africa-and was more positive
about Soviet-Angolan relations in general-than earlier Soviet
commentary on the trip. Moreover, dos Santos sent a message to
General Secretary Andropov just before leaving on Friday referring to
the "splendid" relations between Moscow and Luanda and the
atmosphere of "cordiality and mutual understanding" that
surrounded the discussions
Comment: The composition of dos Santos's entourage and the
fact that he met with key Soviet officials responsible for military and
economic assistance indicate that these issues were high on the
agenda. The US Embassy believes that the Soviets probably did not
promise as much new aid as dos Santos would have liked but that the
communique and particularly the message to Andropov indicate
Angolan satisfaction on this score. Moscow probably also pressed the
Angolans to make more effective use of Soviet assistance
MALAWI: Violent Political Purge
At least three prominent Malawian politicians have been
murdered during the past week, according to the US Embassy in
Lilongwe. Two of the men-the Secretary General of the country's
only political party and a former senior cabinet minister-had been
widely viewed as potential succesors to octogenarian President
Banda.
Comment: The killings could lead to the first major political crisis
in almost two decades for Malawi-a pro-Western country that also
maintains cordial relations with South Africa. It is not yet known who
is responsible for the murders or whether they were authorized by
Banda. The US Embassy believes that ambitious Central Bank
governor and potential presidential successor John Tembo may have
ordered the killings to eliminate key rivals. The leadership of the
Army, whose support is essential for any regime in Malawi, is likely to
remain loyal to Banda but has not yet indicated its position
concerning a successor
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AUSTRALIA: Proposal for Nuclear-Free Zone
The government is moving ahead with its proposal for a South
Pacific nuclear-free zone, an idea first advanced last year when the
Labor Party was not yet in power. Prime Minister Hawke says the
proposal would ban nuclear testing, storage, and waste disposal in
the region. It would not restrict the movement of or visits by US
nuclear-powered warships or US military aircraft capable of carrying
nuclear weapons.
Comment: In defining its proposal now, Australia says it is trying
to head off consideration of military restrictions by South Pacific
island heads of government when it hosts their annual meeting in
August. The proposal is aimed particularly at the French nuclear
testing program. Hawke probably will elaborate on Australia's
position when he visits the US next month.
Iran and Japan during the past week agreed to complete the
$3.5 billion petrochemical project at Bandar-e Khomeyni in Iran
despite Iraqi threats to attack the project if work resumes. In
exchange for Japan's renewed participation, Tehran is to finance the
remaining construction. Iran had less success negotiating new oil
sales contracts with Japan. The remaining contracts expire in July,
and only one new sales agreement is known to have been concluded
at Iran's official price
Comment: Bandar-e Khomeyni is within easy range of Iraqi
aircraft and surface-to-surface missiles, and Iran probably will not be
able to finish the petrochemical project until there is a cease-fire. The
Japanese have said they will not send construction crews to the site
until the war is over. The Iranians probably will have difficulty signing
major new oil contracts with Japan unless they offer price
concessions. Tehran currently is reluctant to offer the discounts
Tokyo is seeking, mainly because spot prices are close to Iran's
official price
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