AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP96R01136R001302320010-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 25, 2013
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: October 23, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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/11..-4te Directorate ot 1 up or er-
mt: Intelligence
Afghanistan Situation Report
23 October 1984
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AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
CONTENTS
IN BRIEF
PERSPECTIVES
AFGHANISTAN IN SEPTEMBER
2
3
Insurgents maintained intense pressure on Soviet and Afghan
forces. The Soviets responded with offensives in many parts of
the country.
AFGHAN OPIUM PRODUCTION
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Opium production--120-180 tons this year--is likely to increase.
Military operations have had little impact on poppy growing, and
unsettled conditions increase incentives for producing opium.
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This document is prepared weekly by the Office of Near Eastern and South
Asian Analysis and the Office of Soviet Analysis.
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IN BRIEF
-- The captured French journalist, Jacques Abouchar, has been
sentenced to 18 years in prison. French officials believe that
Abouchar will be released after serving several months.
-- Islamabad is concerned that KHAD is cultivating links to major
Pakistani opposition parties in an effort to unite the left
against Zia for the election scheduled to be held by March
Rivalries amon o osition Pakistani parties, however, make unity
unlikely.
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PERSPECTIVE
AFGHANISTAN IN SEPTEMBER
The insurgents maintained intense pressure on Soviet and Afghan
forces in many areas of Afghanistan in September. They were especially
active in Kabul where they demonstrated strength and resiliency by
launching their most effective series of coordinated attacks since last
year. Insurgent aggressiveness is probably aimed at foiling Soviet
attempts to seize the initiative in the war. Soviet and Afghan forces
responded to the insurgent pressure with offensives of their own.
Insurgent Activity
Attacks on Convoys
Resistance strikes on Soviet and Afghan convoys showed no signs of
abating in September. :US Embassy sources report that guerrillas
continue in strike convoys along the Salang?Kabul road and in Lowgar
Province. The Soviets also failed to secure the route between Kabul and
Gardez adequately to . guarantee the movement of military columns
dispatched to assist Afghan units in Paktia Province. Soviet and Afghan
travel between Kabul and Qandahar, already hazardous, became even more
difficult, and fighting.in Clandahar City occurred almost every night.
The Panjsher. Valley
The insurgents rebounded from blows struck by the Soviets in their
spring offensive and, according to US Embassy sources, reestablished a
position in the the upper portion of the Panjsher Valley by early
September. They also continued their hit?and?run attacks against
selected outposts in the valley.
cooperation between Panisher commander Masood's forces and
rival forces loyal to Gulbuddin in both the valley and Badakhshan has,
improved.
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The Soviets and the regime have been no more successful in resettling
the valley than they were in consolidating their military control of the
region. According to US Embassy sources, the regime wants to settle
refugees near army encampments to serve as a buffer between regime and
Soviet forces and the insurgents. The few refugees the regime has been
able to move to the valley, however, try to live as far from the
military outposts as possible.
Kabul
The regime's control of its capital city deteriorated dramatically in
September. According to US Embassy sources, fighting occurred nightly
despite Soviet and Afghan efforts to improve security.
mid?level Afghan officials openly admitted not only
that the regime has little or no control of the Afghan countryside, but
that Soviet and regime forces will be more challenged in the future to
maintain security in the Kabul area in the face of increased insurgent
attacks. Examples of insurgent activity in the capital area include:
-- Ariana Airline's DC-10 had to make an emergency landing at Kabul
International Airport on 21 September after being hit, probably by a
heat?seeking missile.
-- Insurgent rocket attacks on the city on 13 September were the
heaviest in months.
-- On 24 September the resistance launched their most intense,
prolonged, and concentrated series of coordinated assaults on the
capital since August 1983, according to US Embassy sources.
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Meanwhile Kabul's electricity shortage is continuing; it is the worst
in the city's history and has affected large areas. Embassy sources
also report that although food supplies in Kabul remained generally
good, many residents complain about the high prices of basic
commodities.
Border Fighting
The regime exhibited increased concern about insurgent infiltration
from Pakistan and Iran in September. At the 14th plenum of the Afghan
ruling party, President Babrak Karmal called on the Afghan armed forces
to defend Afghanistan's borders and said the Politburo adopted a
decision on closing its borders with Pakistan and Iran. On 20
September the regime protested to the Iranian charge in Kabul about two
alleged Iranian border violations into Afghan territory, and Kabul's
press continued to censure Iran for supporting insurgent activity in
Afghanistan.
Soviet and Regime Operations
The insurgents' activities provoked Soviet and Afghan operations
aimed at alleviating resistance pressure against important cities,
regime garrisons, and roads. Soviet and Afghan forces were also active
in some border areas, trying to reduce insurgent infiltration into the
country.
-- A large Soviet force deployed to Lowgar Province in an effort to
stop frequent insurgent attacks on convoys, according to US Embassy
sources.
-- US Embassy sources report that a large operation was in progress
in the Ghazni area and combat again occurred in Paktia.
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-- Soviet and Afghan units continued efforts to rout insurgents from
Paghman, northwest of Kabul.
-- Hoping to protect the highway from Kabul through the Salang Pass,
Soviet and Afghan aircraft bombed many villages in the Shomali area,
north of the capital.
-- At least three new Soviet and Afghan border violations into
Pakistan occurred in September.
Outlook
The insurgents are likely to sustain their high level of activity
this fall, and we believe Soviet and Afghan operations will result in
only temporary setbacks, for the resistance. Insurgent morale generally
remains high, and we believe cooperation among insurgent groups will
improve, especially in areas where Soviet operations make a united
guerrilla effort essential to the insurgents' survival. Masood will
probably continue attempts to reorganize insurgents in the north and to
coordinate more effective strikes against Soviet and regime targets.
The Soviets are likely to continue to emphasize efforts to halt
declines in security, in urban areas--particularly around Kabul--and
along roads, and to curtail insurgent infiltration. They probably will
continue to make small?scale force augmentations to sustain activity and
improve security, but we see few indications that the Soviets will soon
significantly increase their forces.
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PERSPECTIVE
AFGHAN OPIUM PRODUCTION
Afghan opium production--estimated at 120 to 180 tons this year--is
expected to increase. Military operations are having little impact on
poppy growing, and unsettled conditions add to incentives for production
of the lucrative, easily stored and transported commodity. Moreover,
Soviet and Afghan demand is increasing, as is the demand of Pakistani
networks which process the opium into heroin for international
distribution. Opium earns several million dollars a year for Afghan
producers.
Production
We estimate that Afghan farmers produced 120 to 180 tons of opium
during the 1984 crop year, three times that of neighboring Pakistan.
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In general, the Soviet invasion has had little impact on poppy
cultivation and opium production. the Soviets 25X1
have deliberately destroyed crops in retaliation f or insurgent activity,
but crop 25X1
destruction associated with military operations has affected only a very
small share of total land under cultivation. Moreover, most large
Soviet operations have been along main roads or near important towns,
not in remote opium?growing areas. 25X1
no indications of systematic poppy 25X1
eradication. Reporting from Soviet defectors, however, indicates that
the Soviets are worried about drug abuse among their enlisted troops.
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