INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING 15 DECEMBER 1948 VOL. III NO. 49

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP78-01617A004700010033-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: December 15, 1948
• Content Type: REPORT

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ISECRET
CIA WM(
INTELLIGENCE EttILAIC(
For Week Ending
15 December 19148
Vol. III No.149
Document No.
- NO CHAEGE in Class.
LASSIFIED
Class. CHAT:GED TO:
DDA Memo, 4 Apr 77
Auth: DDA REG. 77 176
Date: 5--WAR-1,10- BY: 4)
Ts
/
NEAR FAST/AFRICA BRANCH
OFFICE OF REPORTS AND EST:LUTES
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
$,Fieerr
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S ET
NEAR EAST/AFRICA BRANCH
INTELLIGENCE SUakARY
Vol.III No.49
For Week Ending
15 December 1948
GREECE
Guerrillas still energetic: Although neither the Greek Army nor the
guerrillas have undertaken large scale operations under the present
winter conditions, their efforts to search out each other's weaknesses
and to maneuver for position continue. The most significant aspect
of the present situation is that guerrilla logistics appear to be as
satisfactory as ever. Supplies are being trucked into the Vitsi tri?
angle from both Albania and Yuoslavia, and the Gresaaos area, laboriously
cleared by the army last summer, is again serving as a supply link
between Albania and central Greece. Recently captured guerrilla equip?
ment has inclined 75mm Skoda artillery pieces.
The guerrillas have also shown energy in their proaaganda opera?
tions. In the actual battle zone the guerrillas have begun to use
artillery time fire to disseminate their leaflets, while from behind
the front Markos radio besedcasts to the Greek Army are emphasizing
conciliation and urging the formation of unit "reconciliation committees"
which would act to stop the ware tbile the Greeks cannot believe that
Markos honestly wishes a reconciliation with Athens, after the success?
ful guerrilla performance at Grammes and Vitsi many of them must wonder
if they were right a year ago in believing that harkoS2 "peace" efforts
were prompted entirely by weakness.
TURKEY
Turks risk Arab enmity in peace efforta: Turkey has demonstrated the
seriousness of its desire for an Arab?Zionist settlement by its willing?
ness to serve, at the risk of incurring Arab displeasure, on the UNIs
three?power Palestine Conciliation Gommission. Already confronted with
hostile powers along a considerable portion of their frontier, the Turks
have necessarily placed great stress on maintaining good relations tith
their Arab neighbors; Turkey voted against the partition of Palestine
last year and in its subsequent actions has been careful to avoid any
steps which might provoke Arab hostility. At the same time, however,
Turkey has been concerned about the deleterious effeat the Palestine
dispute has had on Near Fast stability and about the opportunities it
has provided for Soviet agitation. During the oast year the Turkish
Government made several efforts to persuade the Arabs that their interest
would be best served by a Palestine settleflent? but kept matters on a
friendly, informal basis. Now Turkey, along with the US and France, will
have to take the blame for any acts of the Commission to which the Arabs
object.
SEICC-1'
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VsereET
ea
PALESTINE
Prospects of the Palestine Cenciliation Commission: The newly established
cWiestine Conciliation Commission (to be composed of representatives
from tile US, France, and Turkey) has been instructed by the General
Assembly to assist the Arabs end Jews to achieve a settlement of all
outstanding problase between them. The General Asseribly recomeended
no basis for settlement, but by deletine all mention of the Bernadotte
Report, implicitly reaffirmed its 1947 Partition Resolution. In pursuing
this objective, the Conciliation Gemaission will be confronted with
almost all of the multiple difficulties faced in turn by last winterts
ealestine Commission, last sem:le/its Truce Commission, be, Count Bernadotte,
,nd by his successor, Dr. Bunch?, the present Acting eediator, Although
the Provisional Government of Israel is anxious to negotiate a settle-
ment, there is considerable doubt as to whom it will negotiate with.
The Lebanese Government refuses to negotiate while Israeli troops occupy
areas of southern Lebanon. The present political crisis in Syria was
caused in part by the failure of the governmentts Palestine policy, and
it 16 extremely unlikely that any new government will either desire or
be permitted to negotiate with Israel. Iraq still maintains from 8,000
to 10,000 troops in central Palestine, and its government continues to
advocate concerted action by the Arab states to oppose Zionism. The
Iraqi Government does not dare bring home an army that has failed to
defeat the Zionists; it is, therefore, difficult to imagine on what
basis Iraq could negotiate with Israel. Egypt refuses to negotiate
While Israeli troops continue to control the 1legeb, occupy Beervheba?
and hold as virtual prisoners an Eyretian brigade at Falluja.
There is little doubt that Abdullah of Transjordan rould like to
negotiate a broad settlement with Israel. A local armistice in Jerusalem
between Israeli and Arab Legion officers is working smoothly, and
Abdullah has been urged by the recent conference of Palestinian Arab
notables at Jericho to proclaim hinself joint ruler of Palestine and
Transjorden. On the basis of these two developments agreement between
Israel and Transjordan might appear to offer hope for a broad settle-
ment in Palestine.
Other members of the Arab League, however, strongly oppose the
Jericho resolution. The Rings of Pgypt, Seudi Arabia, and Yemen, Azzam
Pasha (the Arah League secretary general )D the influential council of
Clews of Al-Aehar University at Cairo, and the Governments of Syria
and Lebanon have expressed their dieapproval. It is doubtful whether
Abdullah will act until they have modified their opposition, notwitlee
standing the Transjordan Parliamentte endorsement of the Jericho resolu-
tion, If he nere to assume the Palentine crown and attempt to negotiate
with Israel against the exprese wishes of other League :embers, he could
accomplish little and his annelation of Arab Palestine would be little
Serffirr
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30
more than a "paper deal." His Arab Legion occupies the Old City of
Jerusalem and a relatively mall area bounded by Ramallah on the
north and by Hebron on the south. He is therefore in no position to
nagptiate either the Negeb or the Galilee issue. Moreover, he is
not likely to receive encouragement at this time from the UK, which is
anxious to avoid responsibility for any development ?peeved by most of
the Arab League and which realize? that Abdullahts autherity in Palestine
would be greatly limited. Eventually-, the other Arab states may
decide that it would be to their best interests to withdraw and let
Abdullah bear the onus of treating with the Israelis and the responsi-
bility for subsequent developments in Palestine.
Thus the Conciliation Commission faces a difficult task in trying
to bring Arabs and Jews together without havine any basis for reaching
a settlement and in view of the refusal of most of the Arab states to
negotiate with Israel. In effect, it eill probably revert to a truce
comuiesion. It may be able to extend the present Jerusalem armistice
into a demilitarization agreement for the area, establish an effective
armistice in the Negeb? and persuade the Israeli forces to withdraw
from southern Lebanon. However, it will.probably have to ignore the
question of boundaries and the continued presence in Palestine of the
Arab armies,
EGYPT
Dissolution of Ikhwan: Prime Minister Vbkrashela action in dissolving
the Ikhwan al-Muslimin? an organization 500,000 violently nationalist
and fanticany religious Moslems, is expected to strengthen Nekrashy's
hand in dealing with other political opposition. Since the organiza-
tion has been driven underground and must therefore restrict its
activities, Mokrashy should also have (at least for the time being)
greater success in raintaining public order. The governmentrs sudden
elation came after a police investigation of a Cairo bombing turned up
the Ikhwangs detailed plans for further disturbances. The political
aims of the plotters appear to have been the overthrow of the
Nokradey Government and possibly its replacement by a Phfdist Cabinet
which would presumably be more tolerant of the Ikhwants activities.
Dissolution of the rkhwan in Egypt probably-will not have any effect
on branches of the organization in other Arab countries,
SYRIA
Arslan may form government: There are indications that Emir Adel
Arslan, Preeiaen 7ZalialTh latest candidate for the Syrian Premiership,
may suaceed in forming a government. Arslan is politically experienced,
intelligent, well educated, and intensely-nationalistic; if he becomes
Prime Minister, he will undoubtedly be a strong factor in establishing
sem-rwm""
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viettcr
Syria:a future orientation although President Quwatli will probably
..tontinuo to determine basic policy. bhile Arslan's anti-foreign
sentiments augur ill for Syrian cooacration with t'av -estern powers,
they should also lessen the possibility of a Syro-revieL rapproche-
Tent, Bic, consistent opposition to any form of cczoroei!r rewarding
2alestine and his advocacy of all-out measures against Israel may well
Lnorease the difficulties of reacht-ig arab-Jewish settlement.
acd goverament eveaks through: After three weeks of debate on, Prire
kinister SaediS Cabinet and program, a bare majority of the Majlis
finally eave Seed a vote of confidence. Both the prose and the Majlie
were friendly to Seed when he took office a little over a month age,
but they soon turned against him because of his choice of CaxLnet
ministers. The resignatdon of several of the more objectionable
ministers evidently satisfied enough deputies to produce the present
vote iiiwhich only Abbas Eskandari? the leading leftist in the
Majlis? actually opposed the government. However, the uaaillingnass
of a namher of important factions to give their support to Seed will
probably force him into time-consuming efforts to placate them if he is
to survive as Prime Minister, Many members of the Qavam group, largest
in the Heals, abstained, as did Minister of "ear Ahmedits Unity faction.
and a score of other deputies remained out of the chamber. Uoreoveri
The S
aa and the army apparently failed to give Seed the 'same backing
rendered his predecessor, Hajir.
. INDIA-PAKISTAN
India's new C-in-C: The impending departure of General Sir Roy Bucher,
the HrilisR officer now demanding the Indian Army, increases the
possibility of open warfare between India and Pakistan. General
Bucher, who is to relinquish the office of Conmander-in-Chief on
15 January, has exerted a moderating influence on Indian military
policy and with the cooperation of his British opposite number in
Pakistan has kept to a minimum direct encounters between the Indian
Army and Pakistan's regular troops in Kashmir. His succeseor, Lieu-
tenant General K. U. Cariappa, gives the impression of being vain,
temperamentally unstable, and lacking in sound military judgment;
there is a danger that in attempting to give palatable military advice
to the Indian Government he may fail to give due consideration to all
of the military and political factors involved and that he may use
his new position to seek the personal glory that a speedy termination
of the Kamucir campaign would provide. The need for a prompt political
seciztte?
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sister;
solution of the Kashmir probler is particularly urgent at this tine,
not only becauee of General Cariapaats appointment, but also because
the snow storms which are currently restricting military operations in
Kashmir are expected to give way to clear weather by the beginning of
the year, Even if India fails to start a cleer-cut offensive operation,
increased Indian preenure may result in a "preventive" offensive by
an already nervous Pakistan,
NOTED IN BRIEF
hila there are no sleificant strikes in erogFess in Greece, there
is considerable labor unrest, "So new Labor Minister has indicated
that he will be less fire than his predecessor in defending the wage
freeze. Meanwhile, it has been learned that government officials are
receiving letters from soldiers at the front urging measures to pro-
tect their families against rising ccsts, 0 0 10 eo o A
petition demand:iris independence for the large Kurdish minorities of
turkeys Iran, an& Iraq has now been presented to the UN bymembers of
the small group of organizations which have perennially agitated for an
independent Kurdistan. The petition will probably be pigeonholed as
coming from a non-official source unless the.USSaa whose agents are
assiduously attempting to stir up Kurdish unrest, decides to sponsor
the petition in order to argue the existence of a Knrdish "problem."
The first two predictions for the 25 January Israeli
aaa--
elections, from Goldmann in London ana the Press Clurtrifel Aviv,
agree that Menai will come out ahead. Estimates give Banal approxinately
30-36% of the votes, the orthodox religious parties 18-20%, socialist
pro-Soviet Mapam 18%, Beigines right-ming, anti-partition Freedom Party
10-15%, Comeuniat 3-5%, and other 7%. . . The recent
religious installation of Archimandrite Leonides and Deputy Father
Asaya in the &mien Ortno2731-0Ehrch aninTaraim (near Jerusalem)
extends the authority of the lencow patriarchate to Palestine, where
since World War I it has had no physical control. Since the establish-
ment of Israel, however, the USSR has been conducting a quiet, steady
campaign to win control over Russian Church property within Jewish-
occupied territoryo including Jerusalem, Soviet penetration or the
Russian Orthodox Church in Palentine? aided by the tacit approval of
the PGI as shown by the attendance of Israeli officials at the installa-
tion, has succeeded in forcing many Russian priests who opnoee the
Moscow archbishop to flee from Israeli-held areas, taking 'refuge in
many cases in the Arab-held old City of Jerusalem. .b 9 0 0 9 0 C
Former German General Von Schlavitz, who recently-arrived in Damascus
with fur other German officerc, has been appointed Comnanding Officer
of Armored and Artillery Battalions in Syria. There are now about 235
Gernan officers (former SS men) serving in tie Syrian Amy, 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 Riad Solho the Lebanese Premier, has strongly urged US
stiertre?
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0.11t.
6,
representatives in Paris against pushing Israel ts application for un
remEership This year. Riad Bey stated that, to do so, would jeopardise
any chance the Conciliation Gxsainsion night have of negotiating a
settlement of the Palestine issue. ? 0 . 0 n AEINCO (American
Independent Oil Con) is attettlptinv to expand its oil interests- Already
In possession of the nwait 1-IA1f-interest of the Kuwait Neutral Zone
and having obtained preferential rights to the offshore area of the
Suit half, AMINCO is negotiating with Ibn Saud for the Saudi half
interest in the Zone, Ibn Saud is delaying the negotiations, ostensibly
because of the Palestine issue but actually, it is believed, in an
attempt to Gain better terms. ? 0 The prospective ailoca-
',.ion of southern Eritrea to Ethiopia by the UN creates a serious problem
:or the French Soma/Y.5Ra port of Uibouti, which is economically
dependent on the monopoly it has traditionally held over Ethiopia's
foreign comet cen The absorbtion of southern Eritrea would provide
Ethiopia a seaport of its own, 1..assawal and the French might be forced
to establish a free port at Djibouti in order to retain enough of the
Ethiopian trade (and lure enough of the Indian Ocean-Red Sea trade
from the free port of Aden) to ward off stapation,
Ostitrt
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