THE CUBAN PRESENCE IN NICARAGUA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91T00498R000700060001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 13, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 23, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/13: CIA-RDP91T00498R000700060001-9
MASTER FILE COPY
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INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
23 FEBRUARY 1987
THE CUBAN PRESENCE IN NICARAGUA
This Interagency Intelligence Assessment was prepared under the auspices
of the National Intelligence Officer for Latin America. The Assessment
was coordinated at the working ZeveZ within the Central Intelligence Agency,
the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the
Intelligence organization of the Department of State. Also participating
were the Intelligence organizations of the Departments of the Army, the Navy,
and the Air Force; and the Headquarters, Marine Corps. Information
available as of 18 February 1987 was used in the preparation of this Assessment.
IIA 87-10003
COPY NO. 13
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/13: CIA-RDP91T00498R000700060001-9
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/13: CIA-RDP91T00498R000700060001-9
INTERAGENCY INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT 87-10003
THE CUBAN PRESENCE IN NICARAGUA
The Intelligence Community has recently reviewed its information and
analysis of the Cuban military and civilian presence in Nicaragua. As a
result, we have reaffirmed our previous estimate that some 2,000 to 2,500
Cuban military and security advisers and technicians are.in Nicaragua,
although we believe that more Cubans may now be directly assisting
Sandinista counterinsurgency units in the field. At the same time, we have
reduced our estimate of the number of Cuban civilian personnel in Nicaragua
to about 2,000 to 2,500 as a result of a drawdown in Cuban construction
personnel. Thus, our overall estimate is that about 4,000 to 5,000 Cubans
are currently serving in Nicaragua.
several hundred Cuban
additional military personnel were sent to Nicaragua in late 1986, as a
result of a Sandinista desire for more Cuban assistance throughout its
military structure. The Cubans were to be assioned to count ' urgency
battalions and other specialized units.
(Cuban advisers were
serving primarily at the major unit headquarters level rather than with
tactical units in the field. This new information indicates Managua may
have wanted greater assistance at the tactical level in response to the
renewal of US military aid to the insurgents and in expectation of an
increased level of fighting over the next several months.
The assignment of several hundred additional Cuban advisers to tactical
units is not sufficient justification to revise the overall estimate of some
2,000 to 2,500 Cuban military advisers in Nicaragua, particularly because we
believe that prior to the end of last year, the number was gradually being
reduced. Nevertheless, the Intelligence Community will watch closely for
signs of a more substantial increase should the military situation worsen
considerably or should the Sandinistas receive more sophisticated air
defense weapons such as SA-2/3s. Conversely, we will also watch for a
potential drawdown of th nce should Congress cut off further aid
to the insurgents.
Concerning the Cuban civilian presence, we had earlier estimated that
they numbered some 3,500 to 4,000, including about 2,000 construction
personnel and a large number of advisers in various government ministries.
These construction personnel were involved in a number of major projects,
including rail and road construction, a new sugar mill, and airfield
improvements. Most of these projects have now been completed or scaled
back, with a likely reduction of Cuban personnel. Punta Huete airbase
remains as a major unfinished on project, and work is continuing
there at a slow pace.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/13: CIA-RDP91T00498R000700060001-9
As a result, we now estimate that only some 500 Cuban construction
personnel remain in Nicaragua. Thus, the overall number of Cuban civilians
serving there probably has been reduced by 1,500 to some 2,000 to 2,500. We
believe the total number of Cubans in Nicaragua is about 4,000 to 5.000.
including equal numbers of military and civilian personnel.
CUBAN PERSONNEL IN NICARAGUA
FEBRUARY 1987
Previous Estimate Curr
ent Estimate
Military
2,000 to 2,500 2
00
0 to 2
500
,
,
Civilian
3,500 to 4,000 2
00
0 to 2
500
,
,
TOTAL
5,500 to 6,500 4,00
0 to 5,000
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/13: CIA-RDP91T00498R000700060001-9