TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN THE COMING DECADES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP92B00181R000300270024-3
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2013
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: November 1, 1987
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/23 :CIA-RDP92B00181 8000300270024-3
elecornmunications
in the comity decades
.'. ~.
An. intelligent ?broadband network will transmit documents and pictures, combine real-time
communications and messages, and decide how to reach a call's intended recipient
It'sNovember25,1998, and across the United States
car retailers are geared up to receive the first of next
year's models Manager Bob Barnes arrives early at
- his Fareast Motors showroom in suburban New Jer-
sey Glancing at the screen' of his desk_ terminal (a
It ,standard monochrnmewoice-data set $89.9SJrom .
th`e;local discount a/ectronicsstsire), Burnes-scans
? ,its windows for the racing results and his "to-do"
items for the day. Suddenly; a cartoon figure appeaix
. ~' blinking-and waving at the bottom of thescreen, sig-
~-
k,n?v~
` 2511 98 t f ~ ~'r ~ ~'`"~ ' will be enthusiastic about and willing to pay for. What's more, ,::^
move is toward something that could be called i
universal -communications:
. ? Communications among people anywhere, any
time, in any medium or combination of media. :*
- ? Retrieval and sharing of information from diverse "
`'
soircces and in multiple media, including collaba-
,_ ? .
? Distribution of a'wide'variety of cultural, enter=
---~- ..w ...a.wa.auu .V is ia~. V1 V1-
naling ari urgent message.,Barnes touches thefrRUr~ and the?..: fice.`virtually nn demand. . ? : _ ., .... ~ -
o remont.dealerlist from tokyo! .. ?;: - rnternatnonal standards for transmission formats are not yet
,,?` _ ~?? URGENT ~= _ ~;. 't? agreed on, although an approximately 140-megabits-per-second ?
To all North American dealers w~ ~ ~f r,
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rtain tobecome one of the future
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Fareast Motor Corp. Design Division : - ephone, video, and data communications. V~~hat is projected will
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to a large-type text describing an important safety modification ?~ . become widespread and economical if the plan is to work. _ -
of thesuspension on nezt year's cars: A woman's voice reads th'e ~ ~ '.. Research and development is currently concentrated in West-
message as tscrollsup thescreen, revealing acomputer-graphics ;,. ward a
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/23 :CIA-RDP92B00181 8000300270024-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/23 :CIA-RDP92B00181 8000300270024-3
United
capac-
7, fiber
:ilome-
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United
Carriers Standards Association in the United States.
A 1984 proposal by Bell Communications Research
has evolved into two widely-accepted standards for
subscriber interfaces: 150 Mb/s for businesses, 600
Mb/s, including three downstream 150 Mb/s channels,
for homes. Prototypes of very large-scale integrated
cross-point switches for 150 Mb/s circuit-switched
lines aze being developed by, among others, AT&T Bell ~, (i noun
L
aboratories and Bellcore in the United. States, and
Siemens and Standard Elektrik Lorenz in West Ger-
many. New kinds of packet switches point the way to-
ward atotally packetized, integrated transport net-
work, which could handle all types of traffic, including
HDTV.
Broadband LANs already exist, and are widely used
to interconnect computers, printers; and other infor-
mation devices. Researchers are experimenting with
packetized voice arid video communication on high-
speed LANs.
Metropolitan area networks (MANS) could connect
LANs and their equipment around a city. A typical
MAN acchitecture would be a ring network, with pack-
ets of information traveling in circles, and gateways
to LANs placed as nodes azound the ring. A typical
network would transmit at 50 Mb/s or more: A cur-
rent question inbroadband-communications develop-
ment is how to integrate BISDN, a proposal largely
of the telephone industry, and the MAN proposals,
which are mostly from the computer community.
There is no doubt, however, that BISDN will support
MAN features.
Future BISDN services will fall into two main cat-
egories: dialog communications (such as interpersonal
calls, messaging, and information retrieval) and dis-
tribution (mainly broadcasting, including two=way in-
teraction). Acloser look at future services reveals some
of the promise and problems inherent in the system.
Adding services
of thousands of people with Minitel terminals, more than 2.5 mil-
lion users are now served by about 4800 independent providers.
Electronic "chat" channels-a dating service-account for much
of the connection time, suggesting that personal communications
and socializing may be what most people want at home, rather
than information services.
Apart from the French experiment, which is unique, informa-
tion services may initially be directed towazd business and profes-
sional users, in a quite different format from today's videotex,
as in the following example:
A New York architect sits at her powerful workstation, using
amousetomoveapointeracrossthescreen, whichshowsafloor
diagram foraplanned office building. Aided by agraphics-tools
package, the architect moves walls, windows, and lighting lay-
outs, considering alternatives. Deciding to consult with a col-
league in the San Francisco office, she calls up her personal direc-
tory, which appears in a window on the screen, and selects his
name, along with voice and screen applications.
`H; Lynn, " he answers, glancing at the caller identity infor-
mation on his screen. "What s up?'.'
"Can I see you, Harry?" she asks.
`Sure. "Harry appears, playing-card size, in a corner of Lynn's
screen.
As their conversation proceeds, Harry transmits alighting-
intensity formula and photographs of a similar conference-room
design he has worked on. Looking at one small photo, Lvnn drags
her mouse across it, enlarging it to see more detail. Harry tells
her she can order the fixtures from a lighting catalog.
When they hang up, Lynn calls up a copy of the catalog s
recessed-fixtures sec: ion, browsing quickly through the pictures
until she finds and tiootns in on the fixtures sl:e saw in Harry's
room. Filling in an electronic order form, she charges the order
,. Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/23 :CIA-RDP92B00181 8000300270024-3
Facsimile
~~
High-speed
data
(1 kilobit) (t megabit)
w Channel data rate, bits per second
Different kinds of video traffic make different transmission-rate and holding-
timedemands on anetwork. The immense information content of entertain-
mentvideo, especially high-defrnition television, will require expensive opti-
cal fiber lines to individual subscribers' homes. Large corporations will get
video capabilities first, shouldering the initial cost of a broadband integrat-
ed-services digital network.
Store-and-forward and real-time communications complement
each other and allow calls to be completed that could not go
through with real-time communications alone. Messaging is also
important as a record communications medium. Facsimile is al-
ready amass-mazket service, especially in Japan, where there aze
more than 1.5 million facsimile terminals. High-speed com-
municating copiers, information services, and color will become
part of standard facsimile service:
Various telerriatics services will transmit text, data, photo-
graphs, drawings, and other materials, displacing much present-
daymovement ofpaper and magnetic media. Simultaneous use
of multiple media will be essential for communications among
individuals who want to share materials, just as in face-to-face
meetings. Searching, filtering, composing, transforming, editing,
and interpreting information will all be simplified and enhanced.
Dissimilar formats and terminals may well present problems,
which are akeady being discussed by standards bodies. A CCITT
study group, for example, is studying document architecture and
methods for photographic compression and coding, especially
the question of compatibility between hard copy-on paper-
and soft reproduction-screen display.
Videotex even today provides telephone-network subscribers
with a variety of services to their own terminals, including text
and graphics display. But transmitting photographs, animation,
and audio at the current rates of 1200 b/s or 2400 b/s is far from
easy; the channels are just too narrow. As an example, a color
photograph, even compressed, can contain 1 Mb of information:
at 1200 b/s, transmission would take almost 15 minutes-at least
one reason why the service has failed to take off in the United
States.
In France, where a government experiment provided hundreds
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/23 :CIA-RDP92B00181 8000300270024-3
to her project and sends it out. She closes the catalog window,
stores Harry's small conference room photograph and formula
in her file, and goes back to her floor diagram, which once more
fills most of her screen.
The retrieving and sharing of information, particularly in vis-
ual media, is one of the most exciting possibilities. Progress in
information systems and human interfaces, together with what
is happening in transmission technologies, will be required for
a scenario like the one above to become an everyday reality. The
user interfaces will employ gpeech, graphics, and machine-intelli-
gencetechnologies to keep the interactions simple and intuitive.
Physical media will also be important, especially aloes-cost
5-1/4-inch compact disk-the CD ROM-with about 4 gigabits
of read-only digital optical memory for frequently used and slowly
changing information. Information that changes quickly, or ma-
terialfrom scattered collections too vast to distribute by CD ROM,
will beaccessed byhigh-speed telecommunications. [See related
articles on pp. 38 and 40.]
The major distribution service at present is video program-
ming-movies, news, and sports, concerts and comedies, dramas
and specials. The more than 7300 cable systems in the United
States serve some 43 million subscribers and show that there is
a strong consumer demand for wired delivery of broadband dis-
tribution services.
Response to offerings of such ancillary services 'as informa-
tionand transactions, however, has not been encouraging. Home-
shoppingchannels have done well, but are simply advertising cou-
pled toinstant ordering by telephone. Pay-per-view impulse buying
of single movies and sports events is only just beginning to be
offered.
BISDN would bring in a new era of broadcast entertainment,
one that emphasizes personal choice. Pay television today offers
all subscribers the same scheduled event, such as a showing of
a popular movie like Star 7tek IV The Voyage Home. There is
nothing now approaching video-on-demand, where viewers could
choose any movie from a catalog and see it at any time. Even
BISDN would be hard pressed to deliver movies precisely on de-
mand: Chicago has 1 million households watching television on
any evening; if each home had a dedicated 50 Mb/s channel to
its chosen video supplier, the total transmission capacity for each
to have its choice would be 5 x 10" b/s (50000 gigabits per sec-
ond). Amore realistic service would perhaps offer 500 movies
for each two-hour period, which would require a relatively mod-
est 25 Gb/s transmission capacity from video suppliers to distri-
bution points. Popular movies would then be available to sub-
scribers willing to wait an hour or so.
That would not, of course, rule out deferred delivery of in-
dividuallychosen video material, such as college lectures. These
could be ordered ahead of time by a subscriber and then down-
loaded by the supplier, at off-peak hours, to a'videocassette
recorder or other storage point for viewing later. Electronically
accessed video librazies may become. commonplace.
_. Reasonably priced digital video equipment, such as digital
videocassette recorders and lazge-capacity optical-storage devices,
would lead to new methods of delivering videodata. Some see
great possibilities invideo-compression coder-decoders, or coders.
With no compression, a normal television signal might encode
into a 90 Mb/s data stream; with a 1.5 Mb/s codes, a full movie
might be stored on CD ROM. RCA Laboratories recently an-
nounced anexperimental asymmetric coding system that would
allow inexpensive subscriber decoding of highly compressed dig-
ital video.
But custom transmission and storage can go beyond the sim-
ple delivery of a requested program: subscribers might be able
to take personalized, multimedia electronic magazines full of
news, entertainment, and other information. Work along those
lines at Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Media Labora-
tory in Cambridge suggests that intelligent interpreters, pro-
grammed inthe subscriber's equipment, could put together mul-
timedia publications adapted to individual interests.
Others possibilities are personalized broadcasts of sports, en_
tertainment, and professional programs. A viewer wanting back-
ground on a certain basketball player, for example, could call it
up in an inset television-screen window right in the middle of the
game. An engineer could pick one of several ongoing sessions
at, say, apower-engineering conference, checking in on the other
sessions from time to time through a screen window. .
Field trials
HDTV may turn out to be the most important innovation result-
ing from BISDN. So far, however, field trials of custom video
delivery, combined with various information services, have been
very modest. Only about 200 000 cable subscribers in the United
States are on interactive systems, allowing communication with
the cable head end for pay-per-view ordering and other services.
More subscribers may soon be found on hybrid systems, com-
biningvideo distribution by cable television with interactive data
communications through the telephone network.
While most CATV system trials have used coaxial cable, fiber
was employed for the 1981 Elie-St. Eustache trial in Manitoba,
Canada, conducted jointly by Manitoba Telephone System in
Winnipeg, Northern Telecom, Mississauga, Ont., and the Cana-
dian Department of Communications. Telephone, television, FM
radio, and videotex services were provided to 150 homes, using
analog video because of the high cost of digital transmission and
coding.
In 1983-84, United Cable Television of Alameda, Calif., built
a much larger fiber-delivery system. Based on the Times Fiber
Co.'s Communications Mini-Hub switching office, from which
subscribers can request one or two video channels at a time, the
system offers impulse pay-per-view, videoconferencing, and two-
wayhome shopping. Bell South's new system in Hunter's Creek,
Fla., supplies video programming to 300 homes through light-
, emitting diode-driven multimode fiber, with separate copper wires
for interactive data communications. This and other U.S. trials
may evolve to end-to-end digital transmission in the next several
years.
Most broadband trials have occurred not in North America,
but in Europe and Japan. British Telecom's system in the West-
minsterdistrict of I.ondon,set up in 1985, is based on a switched-
staz azchitecture. The staz is a distribution point to which all
programming comes, with spokes radiating out to subscribers.
Subscribers request channels via data communications between
subscriber and staz. The system employs a combination of fiber
(to the distribution star) and coaxial cable (to the subscriber) for
analog video distribution. British Telecom believes that video on
demand is a practical service, and will shortly test to some 40 sub-
scribers an elaborate subscriber-controlled videodisk system for
on-demand movies, with a response time of less than 30 seconds.
The company is also considering video education and training
services.... .: . ..
The French have,shown considerable interest in such services
as pay-per-view, home-video library, home shopping, video
games, an on-line encyclopedia, and a wide vaziety of videotex
graphic services, with field trials under way in Biazritz, Mont-
pelier, and Rennes. The Biazritz network, opened in 1985, now
serves 1200 homes and 300 businesses. Montpelier subscribers
can reach, among other services, an azchive of television programs.
All three networks employ the switched-staz azchitecture and, for
now, analog video. Signaling occurs over a 2 Mb/s data-
communicationsnet linking all elements. The subscriber line pro-
vides either one or two video channels, ahigh-fidelity audio chan-
nel, atwo-way 4800 b/s data channel, and an ISDN interface at
In West Germany, telecommunications planners are pushing
dialog services, especially videotelephony and teleconferencing,
rather than home entertainment. An experimental bridge system
developed by the Heinrich Hertz Institut in Berlin focuses on
desktop teleconferencing. The bridge is a programmable sig-
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/23 :CIA-RDP92B00181 8000300270024-3
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/23 :CIA-RDP92B00181R000300270024-3 ---~~"`~
nal combiner which pro-
vides specified mixes of
video, audio, and graphics
to each conference par-
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tween ' 6.3-Mb%s:data streams .Also in 1984, NTT started trials of ; .~r cepts are described by`Thomas Browne inlh~eSept tuber 1986 .
fiber ~ ~''its`informatton network model system, linlung-central 'Ibkyo_ : ,:=IEEEProceedin s a er ?"N w
r) to ~ ?with suburban~~lVlitakai. Some `300 subscribers were Bed into a ' 8 p p ? et ork of the Future," and a pro-
~,eo on ~ ; 64-kb/s digital network, which was+interwoven with a`lightwave ;~~in their t ntelligen~Network/2, ~nn the Paro eeding bof the 1987
0sub '~~ ;;broadband network .Metal fines gave 88-kb,/s digital access %IEEEInternational Swftchrng~Symposium..?:~:~. _
~:.:
mfor ~ nand services included video distribution,'videotelephony,?'iele Services and image""technologies are~addressed~by Charles
onds :monitoring; super-high speed facsimile, and inteactrve video . Judice and Didier Legall m "Telematic services and terminals:
umng ; ' :response.:. ~"?` ,, ~ `~- ,c, ~-r ~~- ~~~ . n.
' ~ ~" `- ~ Are we ready?" inIEEECommunicationsMagazine,July 1987;
;~, Participants m the firsf?tests had the'service?free. Municipal ISDN is surveyed in the March 1986 and forthcoming 1987 is-
rvices ,fir .? authorities broadcast city council meetings and issued certificates sues. For a tutorial on ISDN, see "The universal data connec-
video ~;~ by high-speed facsimile; teleconferenced seminars took place be- tion," by Sushil N. Pandhi [Spectrum, July 1987, pp. 31-37]. Cable
~eotex-,'~? ? tween university campuses; and medical images sent over the wire television technologies and services are explained in the book,
vIont- '~~~, aided long-distance diagnosis. :~~
x.;
,now "~ Last year NTT started a"secorid trial of the service in another Mediumt by ScB~rWein~ein,eIEEEAPressnNew York,~9g6 onic
ribers ~~"~ ,_'_ district of central Tokyo, with fully broadband fiber distribution.
:I'arrrS. ~s ;:TF,A...,..,...,~:._!___.
-- -----r~-v r?????~ ~~ cac~cftu a commercial INS service through- About the Author
d, for ` ~`. ;out Japan in stages; starting with ISDN B channels anri .u?r4:.,,. ~:__,
???=u~.l~.at,luu~ fcesearcn in Morris-
chan ~ '?~*~' ?? ??_? ?-?=*a~=' ~? town, N.J., investigating technical and behavioral questions of
' Commurucattons networks must meet the popular expectations future communications services. He holds an M.S. from the Uni-
ace at x ~ raised by advancing home and office communications. in fnrma_ .~:,,. ,.r ~..: _L
-- -? ~~~?.....~..,.,gl,~wave, sortware, and tele- sity of California, Berkeley, both in electrical engineer ngive?
shing ~; vision technologies are making this possible. Manufacturers have
icing, sti already made major investments, and the intelligent broadband
,es Ori ---- ----~ ~ ?~?? ~..a.~ agv l,as oecome a cer- ~ ne auinor is grateful to T. Kamae of NTT, M. Reuter of the Deutsche
~a~n part of our future-no longer a matter of whether; just Of Bundespost, G. Romahn of the Heinrich Hertz Institut, J. Fox of British
e sip .,~?,~, ~ :w
~::?..
- "~"" hen. Only the dates are'left to be filled iii as technical, re ula- Telecom, and to many colleagues at Bell Communications Research for
? =.~, '. ~ _ -.. materials anri ~~t~?~til,..,:-_..__.__ -
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/04/23 :CIA-RDP92B00181 8000300270024-3
tory, and economic ques-
tions are resolved.
To probe further .
?~~~;~Broadband communica-
?tions, technologies, serv-
ices, and trials are covered
in the July 1986 and Oc-
tober 1987 issues of the
IEEE Journal on Selected
:::Areas in Communications;
?~in two papers, "Broadband
ISDN," by P.E. White, and
"`Switched-Star Networks;
by W.K: Ritchie, in Prriceed-
;ings ofthe 1987IEEEItster' "
'
'
national Switching Syritpo-
sium and in a? series of
:articles ?to begin this month
- in IEEE Communications
Magazine. ` .
` HDTV and other tele-
vision-technology questions
are addressed-in an article, '