INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION REPORT #62
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CIA-RDP90T00114R000404420001-4
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Publication Date:
March 19, 1987
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centrai Intelligence gency
Washington. D. C 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
International Financial Situation Report #62
19 March 1987
Summary
Bankers from 16 major international banks discussed general debt strategy at a Washington
meeting on 26-27 February. The group agreed that the best course of action is to conclude
ongoing rescheduling negotiations, make as much progress as possible on those that are about to
begin, and move to a signing as soon as possible on Mexico. The bankers also discussed exit bonds
that would allow small banks unwilling to participate in new money packages to withdraw as
creditors after paying a financial enalt .
In other developments:
the signing of the Mexican debt package on 20 March
appears likely, although problems still exist.
o Argentina received a $500 million bridge loan from 12 developed countries to bolster
its shaky reserves position. Meanwhile, Argentina continues to negotiate with
international bankers for $2.15 billion in new lending and at least $30 billion in
multiyear debt rescheduling.
o Ecuador's recent earthquakes have caused a severe financial crisis. Quito is seeking.
economic and technical assistance from foreign governments and multilateral
institutions to cope with the disaster.
o The Philippines' negotiations with commercial bank creditors to restructure $3.6
billion falling due between 1987-91 continue. Last week the banks rejected Manila's
offer to pay an interest rate of 0.875 percentage point over LIBOR if they accept
is situation report was prepared by analysts of the Intelligence Directorate. Comments are
welcome and may be addressed to the Situation Report Coordinator
One month after Brazil announced an indefinite suspension of interest payments on its
medium-and long-term debt to commercial banks, Brasilia has yet to prepare either
an economic stabilization plan or a strategy for its debt negotiations. As a result, the
economy continues to deteriorate and creditors. are becoming increasingly concerned.
GI M 87-20040C
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KEY ISSUES
International Bankers' Meeting
Senior debt negotiators from 16 major international banks discussed general debt
strategy at a Washington meeting on 26-27 February. The group agreed that the best
course of action is to conclude ongoing rescheduling negotiations, make as much progress
as possible on those that are about to begin, and move to a signing as soon as possible on
Mexico. The bankers believe this strategy will isolate Brazil. In addition, the bankers
reaffirmed their opposition to interest capitalization, arguing that it does not impose any
conditionality on debtors. The bankers also discussed exit bonds, which would allow small
banks unwilling to participate in new money packages to withdraw as creditors after
paying a financial penalty. The group agreed that exit vehicles should be discussed on a
specific case-by-case basis-Argentina's bank advisory committee (BAC) probably will be
the first to explore such a vehicle-and that the financial penalty be significant to
discourage larger banks from participating in them.
DEVELOPMENTS IN MAJOR COUNTRIES
Brazil
One month after it announced an indefinite suspension of interest payments on its
medium-and long-term debt to commercial banks, we believe Brasilia has yet to prepare
either an economic stabilization plan or a strategy for its debt negotiations. As a result,
the economy continues to deteriorate and creditors are becoming increasingly
Finance Minister Funaro toured world financial capitals from 27 February to TO
March to explain Brazil's interest suspension and to request official assistance in securing
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a long-term solution to Brazil's debt problems. Press and US Embassy reporting indicate
that most foreign officials informed Funaro that Brasilia must implement a coherent
economic program and work out its problems with its commerical creditors. British and
Swiss officials advised Brasilia to negotiate an agreement with the IMF.
Concurrent with Funaro's travels, Brazilian diplomats worldwide asked Third World
officials to support Brasilia's interest sus ension.
Although Brasilia probably is not seeking to form a debtors cartel, it probably
hopes sympathetic public statements from other key debtors will help improve its
negotiating position. Brazil may also hope to obtain material support, for example, from
other countries for help in conducting trade, if that is needed in the future.
In these circumstances, Brazil is unlikely to secure a formal agreement to renew its
short-term credits by 31 March. These credits probably will decline, des ite the freeze,
and impede Brazil's ability to conduct trade. Brazilian 25X1
businessmen are develo in contin enc plans for securing short-term funds in case banks
retract trade credits. 25X1
interview since returning from abroad, Funaro said that Brazil will present a four-year
financing plan to its official and commercial creditors soon that places a higher priority
on achieving 7-percent annual growth than on making payments on its foreign debt.
Funaro reiterated that Brasilia will not negotiate its growth targets, and that in order to
achieve them, it will not be able to pay more than $6-7 billion per year to service its
debt-from nearly $12 billion last year. The Finance Minister criticized foreign banks
who have counseled him to put Brazil's economic house in order. In the wake of Brasilia's
increasingly inflexible approach to banks, some major US banks are considering
reclassifying their loans to Brazil as non erformin even before mandated by banking
regulations, according to press reports.
A continued impasse between Brasilia and its creditor banks will further erode
business confidence in Brazil. The growing uncertainty already is causing the private
sector to postpone investment decisions, according to press reports. Foreign investment
probably will decline again this year. The payments suspension and delay in negotiations
are likely to postpone new capital flows from official credit agencies and multilateral
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development banks as well. Retractions in trade credits combined with stringent import
licensing restrictions probably will lead to a sharp drop in industrial production and
manufactured exports within the next several months.
Meanwhile, inflation continues high at officially 14 percent for February,. but
private estimates indicate it was close to 20 percent. Interest rates dropped sharply
following the announcement of the moratorium, but we believe Brasilia is rapidly
increasing the money supply to force rates down. speculative
activity in gold has increased, indicating in our view that inflationary expectations
remain high. Labor agitation has increased markedly in recent weeks. Maritime workers
currently are in their third week of strike-an action that has paralyzed Brazil's major
ports and threatened food and oil supplies-and bankworkers have announced plans to
launch a strike on 24 March. In both cases, workers are demanding wage hikes of 100
percent or more.
Planning Minister Sayad resigned Tuesday in the wake of long-standing
disagreements with Funaro over running the economy and handling the foreign debt.
Sayad was the only member of the economic team who advocated orthodox policies, and
his departure will further consolidate Funaro's power and hardline stance on the foreign
debt. A replacement has not been announced, and press reports indicate that the
Ministries of Planning, Commerce, and Finance will be merged into an Economy Ministry
to led by Funaro.
Argentina
Buenos Aires received a $500 million bridge loan from 12 developed countries to
bolster its shaky reserve position in the months ahead until the IMF disburses its
compensatory financing facility loan. Meanwhile, Argentina continues to negotiate with
international bankers for $2.15 billion in new lending and at least $30 billion in multiyear
debt rescheduling. According to a US official, the two sides have yet to agree upon the
loan amount, the interest rate, and on-lending, a method of earmarking loans that Buenos
Aires wishes to eliminate. Moreover, banks are pressuring Argentina to revise its
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proposals on debt-to-equity conversion. Buenos Aires asserts, however, that this
subsidizes companies that would have invested anyway and increases inflationary
pressures when the Central Bank creates money to buy back the debt. Nevertheless, we
believe that after tough, intensive bargaining, Argentina and its banks will compromise
and reach an agreement for new money that will strengthen the payments accounts.C 25X1
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Other Latin American Countries
Chile has concluded a debt renegotiation package with commercial banks that will
delay principal repayments until 1991, reduce applicable rates of interest, and retime
interest payments in order to postpone $450 million in 1988. Some $12.5 billion in debt
contracted prior to 1983 was rescheduled for 16 years including asix-year grace period
at a rate of LIBOR plus 1.0 percent, down from an average of LIBOR plus 1.375
percent. The drop in interest rates will save Chile about $65 million in 1987-88. Nearly
$2.3 billion in new money loaned under 1983-85 debt renegotiations will be rescheduled at
LIBOR plus 1.125 percent. Short-term bank credit lines will be maintained at $1.7 billion
until 1991. Beginning in 1988, interest payments for the previous time period will change
from semi-annual to annual. Santiago will reduce interest payments by $450 million next
year, closing its earlier projected financing gap, but will face a $900 million interest
payment in 1989.
Central Bank President Somerville requested a Paris Club rescheduling and Chile's
creditors, with the exception of Italy, agreed to a meeting during the week of 30 March.
While the detailed proposal has not yet been submitted, Somerville advised that the
recently concluded commercial bank agreement requires that Chile obtain debt relief of
at least $140 million from official creditors during 1987-88.
Venezuela
Venezuela and its bank advisory committee agreed on 27 February to revise a $21
billion public debt rescheduling package signed one year ago. Under the new terms,
Caracas will pay $250 million in principal payments this year, $400 million in 1988, and
$700 million in 1989. The amortization plan will save Venezuela $2 billion more than in
the first three years under the previous agreement. Bankers have also agreed to reduce
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interest rates to 0.875 over LIBOR, the lowest rate negotiated by any Latin American
country, excluding Mexico. The final agreement is scheduled to be signed by October,
Although the
major opposition party has criticized President Lusinchi for not waiting for the outcome
of the Brazilian debt negotiations, the new agreement has been tacitly accepted by most
political leaders, labor, and the business sector.
hopes to reduce the deficit by $270 milion.
Febres-Cordero has announced austerity measures to reduce the impact of the
anticipated tax revenue shortfall of $330 million, including gasoline and public
transportation price hikes, suspension of public sector imports for five months, and the
reduction of government expenditures by 5 percent across the board. The government
per day, less than one-fourth of its previous export level.
Ecuador is seeking economic and technical assistance from foreign governments
and multilateral institutions to cope with the disaster. Venezuela has offered short-term
oil loans worth $187 million to meet Quito's domestic needs and to help fulfill long-term
oil export commitments. Colombia will allow Ecuador to build a $20 million emergency
link to its Orito-Tumaco pipeline. This would permit Ecuador to export 40,000 barrels
least $1 billion may be required to cover the cost of the disaster.
Ecuador
Ecuador's recent earthquakes have caused a severe financial crisis. Oil exports
may be suspended for at least six months, costing Quito a minimum of $500 million in
lost revenues. President Febres-Cordero has suspended debt service on Ecuador's $5.4
billion commercial bank debt for 1987, for a total of $920 million in interest and
principal payments. Ecuadorean officials plan
to meet with commercial creditors this week to discuss new financing arrangements. At
President Garcia recently told
conditions will likely worsen this year, with inflation surging and
percent, compared with 9 percent in 1986,
labor negotiations. The Embassy also anticipates that Lima will retighten price
controls. Garcia plans to visit Mexican President de la Madrid on 24-25 March in Mexico*
that Peru's economic
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P growth falling to 5
Inflation in
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January-February was already running at an annual rate of 100 percent, and the US
Embassy reports that Lima is pressing business to limit wage hikes in upcoming rounds of
if the often postponed meeting takes place, a joint statement on LDC debt is likel
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concerned that declining world coffee prices may abort its economic recovery. 125X1
Colombia
Finance Minister Gaviria has stated publicly that $3 billion in foreign reserves are
adequate to sustain a 4-5 percent economic growth rate this year, and that Colombia will
service its $13.5 billion foreign debt as long as commercial banks keep their credit lines
open. Nevertheless, business and political opposition leaders are pressing President
Barco to review his debt policy. Moreover, the Colombian Government is becoming
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Meanwhile, Colombia's efforts at the World Bank and the Inter-American
Development Bank to arrange $3 billion in new development loans has so far been
unsuccessful. We believe the request for cofinancing was ill-timed, coming on the heels
of Brazil's interest suspension. Bogota is however placing a $50-million bond issue in the
London capital market through a public offering paying 0.125 percentage point over
LIBOR to finance investment programs.
Nicaragua
International bankers, impatient with Managua's growing arrearages on its $1.3
billion commercial debt, recently formed a creditors committee that could force the
country into default and possibly lead to bank seizure of Nicaraguan assets. Despite
token debt payments last.year, Nicaragua's commercial arrears now total over $200
million and Managua does not plan on making commercial bank payments in 1987. The
committee probably will recommend reinstating the strict original loan provisions, rather
than the more lenient terms granted in previous negotiations. Commercial bankers are
toughening their stance
kers probably feel they have nothing to lose by moving toward
a default because they have written off most of their Nicaraguan debt. Nevertheless,
the substantial legal costs entailed in a declaration of default are likely to cause hankers
to move slowly.
In Asia, the Philippine debt negotiations continue; Indonesia will need to raise $1.5
billion from commercial banks this year;/
and the US Supreme Court removed
the principal legal barrier to China's participation in US securities markets.
Philippines
Negotiations with commercial bank creditors to restructure $3.6 billion in debt
falling due between 1987-91 continue. Last week the banks rejected Manila's offer to
pay an interest rate of 0.875 percentage point over LIBOR if they accept Philippine
investment notes (PINS) - commercial paper redeemable only in pesos for investment in
the Philippines - as repayment Under the proposal,
banks that insist on being repaid in cash will receive 0.625 percentage point over
LIBOR. Despite Washington's urging that the PINS proposal be given serious attention,
the banks are wary of the plan because they believe it would set a precedent for
negotiations with other debtors. Anything other than a hard currency payment is
unacceptable to the banks The press reports that the
bank's counterproposal last Friday contained a revised version of the PINS proposal.
Subsequently, however, the Philippines offered a further revision of its proposal. In our
judgement, both sides want to avoid prolonged negotiations; Manila wants a rescheduling
agreement to revive investor confidence, while the banks are concerned- that an impasse
might force Ongpin's resignation,
(considerable domestic opposition to the government's new
draft investment code has surfaced in recent days. The US Embassy believes it could be
d
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some time before a new investment code is in place, but we expect Secretary of Trade
and Industry Concepcion to push hard for early approval to stimulate badly needed new
investment. We believe the success of Manila's PINS proposal-should it be accepted
bankers-will depend, in part, on swift implementation of the new investment code.
Indonesia
Indonesia signed a $905 million Japanese EXIM Bank loan to cover the local costs of
21 World Bank projects and probably will draw down a $350-400 million commercial
credit before it expires at the end of this month. Jakarta will need to raise an additional
$1.5 billion from commercial banks to help meet some $5 billion in FY1987-88 debt
service payments, according to Central Bank Governor Siregar. We expect, however,
that the government will try to reduce commercial borrowings by increasing efforts to
drum up foreign aid and concessional loans. Jarkarta, for example, will press Japan to
boost the amount of a loan to support trade and industrial reforms from $100 million to
$300 million, according to the US Embassy.
the government does not foresee a debt rescheduling in the near term,
If rescheduling becomes
necessary, however, Jakarta hopes one of its major foreign creditors will make a "good
will" gesture by offering some form of debt rescheduling and hence eliminate the
necessity for Indonesia to announce unilaterally a change in its debt payment policy,
China
The US Supreme Court decision to uphold dismissal of the Huguang bonds case-
China's refusal to settle outstanding Qing dynasty railway bonds-removes the principal
legal barrier to PRC participation in US securities markets
The lack of a US credit rating for Bank of China bonds, however, probable
Chinese reluctance to meet the Securities and Exchange Commission's disclosure
regulations and more attractive rates offered by Japanese securities firms suggests most
of Beijing's financing will continue to come from Tokyo in the near term. The US
Embassy reports that China stepped up its activities in international markets last year;
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borrowing in 1986 jumped to over $7 billion from $3.5 billion a year earlier. Meanwhile
Beijing is negotiating its first Asian Development Bank loan for $100-150 million. 25X1
Africa/Middle East
In Africa, South Africa's commercial creditors probably will accept Pretoria's
proposal to extend the current external debt payment standstill and Paris Club creditors
agreed to reschedule over $900 million of Morocco's medium and long-term official
debt. In the Middle East, implementation of Egypt's IMF standby program is still several
months off, despite the late February signing of a letter of intent. 25X1
Egypt
Implementation of an IMF-supported standby program for Egypt is unlikely for at
least several months, despite the late February signing of a draft letter of intent. The
agreement will not be presented to the IMF executive board until early May because a
number of issues remain unresolved, including negotiation of formal performance
criteria, details of exchange rate unification and a specific date for energy price
increases. President Mubarak's recent call for People's Assembly elections in early April
has enabled him to postpone making hard decisions on the politically sensitive program.
Moreover, the improvement in Egypt's foreign exchange earnings that resulted from the
recent uptick in oil prices and renewed financial assistance form the Arab Persian Gulf
states probably has convinced Mubarak that he now has more breathing space. Without
an agreement on an IMF program, however, a formal rescheduling of official debt cannot
take place and Egypt's financial outlook will remain precarious.
South Africa
South Africa and its foreign commercial banks are close to an agreement that
would extend the current external debt payment standstill another three years.
the agreement covers $1.6 billion, or over 12 percent of
what South Africa owes on maturities frozen when the standstill was first announced in
August 1985. Pretoria would pay nearly $700 million immediately and the remaining
$900 million during the next two years at variable interest rates that would not top 1.0
percent over LIBOR. In addition, South Africa will also offer the option of converting
some debt to a 10-year bullet payment, with five years grace followed by ten semi-
annual repayments. The terms of the agreement are close to what South Africa proposed
at the start of talks, and are more of a unilateral declaration than the result of
negotiations and compromise with bankers.
Pretoria has been tough in the negotiations, arguing for
the lowest possible repayment terms to conserve the country's foreign exchange
reserves.
Morocco
Morocco and its Paris Club creditors rescheduled over $900 million of Rabat's
medium-and long-term official debt in early March. All debt due between September
1985 and June 1988, including some previously rescheduled, has been consolidated. The
payments will be spread over 10 years, with a five year grace period. Creditors accepted
the deal because Morocco is becoming more creditworthy and will use an IMF standby
loan - obtained late last year - to clear up $600 million in arrears. The rescheduling
will allow Morocco to continue its investment program and move toward its IMF
structural adjustment goals.
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USSR/Eastern Europe
The Soviet Union signed its first commercial loan agreement with Kuwait. In
Yugoslavia, friction between Belgrade and the Paris Club probably will delay
implementation of phase two of the multiyear rescheduling agreement. Meanwhile,
Eastern Europe's heavily indebted countries are not likely to follow Brazil's example of
formally suspending interest payments.
Soviet Union
The Soviet Foreign Trade Bank, Vneshtorgbank (VTB), signed a $150 million loan
agreement with a consortium of Kuwaiti banks-the first all-Kuwaiti commercial credit
for Moscow. The eight-year general purpose loan carries a four-year grace period and
favorable interest rates, partly subsidized by the Kuwaiti government, according to the
US Embassy. While this loan is in part, politically motivated, we do not expect a major
expansion in economic relations between the two countries. The US Embassy also reports
that a consortium of United Arab Emirate (UAE) banks expect their government to
approve a $150 million loan to the Soviet Union in April. The loan, if approved, will mark
a significant advance in the previously minimal level of UAE-Soviet economic ties.
Yugoslavia
Friction between Belgrade and the Paris Club likely will peak this month when the
two sides meet to review a recent IMF report critical of Yugoslav economic policy. =
Yugoslavia missed most performance targets last year and faces a_$900
million financing gap in 1987.
The conflict probably will delay implementation of phase two of the multiyear
rescheduling agreement with official creditors, who doubt that enhanced surveillance by
the IMF can enforce adequate adjustment policies to justify continued debt relief. Banks
likely will delay action on the second stage of their rescheduling agreement until the
Paris Club forms its official position.
East European Reactions to Brazil
Eastern Europe's heavily indebted countries are not likely to follow Brazil's
example of formally suspending interest payments. A Polish spokesman announced that
Warsaw would continue seeking to reschedule debt, even though the country would be
"morally justified" in taking a stance similar to Brazil because the economic sanctions
imposed on Warsaw by the West damaged its debt servicing capacity. Poland, however,
has not kept up to date on its payments either; through the end of 1986 arrears owed
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under rescheduling accords totaled $800 million. The vice president of the Yugoslav
cabinet assured US Embassy officials that Belgrade intends to meet its debt obligations
in 1987-provided it can continue rescheduling-and does not intend to follow Brazil's
path. Romania, which has imposed draconian austerity measures on its population in
t
s.
order to speed repayment, has not commented on the suspension of debt paymen
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Perpetual floating rate note market still skidding following selling panic. last
December
Paris Club official creditors scheduled to meet the week of 30 March ... Poland,
Chilean, Argentine, debt reschedulings tentatively on agenda ... also meeting with
Yugoslav officials to discuss Belgrade's economic program.
Jamaica reached agreement with Paris Club on rescheduling $26 million in official
debt in early March ... then secured new terms on $181 million in principal owed to
commerical banks ... allows some increase in social spending that will aid Seaga's
political standing.
Paraguay likely to reschedule half of its $500 million debt with Brazil by month's
end, according to the US Embassy ... Asuncion's request is first admission of serious
foreign exchange shortage ... agreement would cover only 12 percent of Paraguay's total
foreign debt, providing limited relief.
Trinidad and Tobago to negotiate a multiyear rescheduling agreement (MYRA) on
its $1.0 billion foreign commercial debt
About $285 million may never be recovered in the Brunei bank scandal ... foreign
banks will receive at best about half of the money they had on loan or deposit with the
National Bank of Brunei ... case may come to trial in August and will undoubtedly shed
light on financial affairs in a nation where such matters are just not discussed.
Africa/Middle East
Tunisia nearing agreement on two loans totaling $100 million to cover over half of
projected 1987 financial gap ... part of strategy to seek numerous smaller loans rather
than a large euromarket syndication ... working to generate confidence among
international lenders and reduce profile in commercial markets this year.
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Europe
Kuwaiti banks co-leading a seven-year $100 million loan to East Germany at 0.375
percent over LIBOR ... first major credit for East Berlin since 1985 after securing under
$100 million in small syndicated loans last year.
Romania announced hard currency trade surplus of $2 billion for 1986 ... cut hard
currency imports by 25 percent ... Bucharest paid arrears to 'IMF and World Bank late last
year and prepaid some Paris Club debt in 1987.
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SUBJECT: International Financial Situation Report #62 (U) 19 March 1987
Copy No. 1
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Sec. Janes Baker Treasury
R. G. Damian . 11
Janes W. Conrow
Robert Cornell
Thanas J. Berger
Charles Schotta
Janes A. Griffin
Doug Mulholland
Robert M. Kinmit
David Mulford
Sec. George Shultz. State
11
Whitehead
John C. Morton I. Abranowi.tz
Jerane H. Kahan
Michael Annacost
Donald Cohen
W. Allen Wallis
Elliot Abrams
Rozanne Ridgway
Douglas McMinn
Chester Crocker
Gaston Sigur
Richard Murphy
Harry Gilmore
Byron Jackson
S. Bruce Snart
It
Crnmerce
11
NSA
Steve Farrar NSC
Stephen Danzansky it
Randall Fort PFIAB
Leo Cherne PFIAB
David Tarbell OSD (ISA)
DCI
ExDir
SA/DIICI
EDI
AUDI
Ch/PES/DDI
NIO Econanics
AFD/NIC AG
DDO
Ch/DDO
Ch/DDO
Ch/DDO/AF
Ch/DDD/EA
Ch/DDO/EUR
Ch /DDO/IA
49 Ch/EE /NE
50' Ch/DDD/SE
51: D/AIA
52' Ch/ALA/SAD
53 D/OEA
54 D/EURA
55' Ch/EURA/EE/EW
56 D/SOVA
57 D/NESA
58 ED/031, D/OGI
59 Ch/OGI/SRD
60 Ch/OGI/FSIC
61 Ch/OGI/ECD
62-63, Ch/OGI/ECA/FI 25X1
64 OGI /OC)
65, CPAS/ISS/SA/DA
6& Ch/OGI/Pub
67-69' OGI/Pub
70-75 CPAS/I1VC/CB
---------- ------------------------------
25X1
1 - Manuel H. Johnson, Vice Chainnan,
Federal Reserve System
1 - H. Robert Heller, Federal Reserve Board
2 - Edwin Trunan, Federal Reserve Board
1 - David Roberts, Federal Reserve,
New York
1 - Leo'Cherne, PFIAB, New York
1 - E. Gerald Corrigan, President,
Federal Reserve Bank, New York
1 - John Bohn, Chairman, Exlm Bank..
2 - Doug Mulholland, Treasury
1 - Ambassador Richard McCormack, State
1 - Martin A. Wenick, State
1 - Nicholas Burakow, State
1 - Peter W. Rodnan, State
1 - Rick Tropp, A/AID
5 - Byron Jackson, Crnmerce
1 - Warren E. Farb, Cmmerce
1 - DIA
1 - Ron Silverman, GMB
1 - Beryl Sprinkel, CEA
1 - C/DO
1 - Ch/ECD
1- Ch/Ff.D/IF
1 - Ch/ECD/T
1 - Ch/BCD/Dl
1 - Ch/ED/ES
1 - ch/ISID/FI
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/07: CIA-RDP90TO0114R000404420001-4