ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140030-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 9, 2011
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: September 6, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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Release 2011 /12/09 0 lid
CIA-RDP85TOO875RO01 50014
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Sanitized Copy Approved for
Release 2011 /12/09
CIA-RDP85TOO875RO01 50014
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25X1
Secret
LOAN COPY
Return to DSS
1111107, 0811
v
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 7781/73
6 September 1973
Copy No.
162
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0 SI?,CRE7'
CONTENTS
Worldwide Grain Developments
West Germany Considers Subsidizing Export Credits
to Communist Countries
Australia to Control Beef Exports
Moderate Economic Policy for China
Renewed US/Sudanese Commercial Ties
Premier Jalud on Libyan Oil
Soviet RYAD Computer Program The USSR seeks Western help in
producing third-generation computers.
Japan Lining Up LNG Supplies Worldwide Long-term supply
contracts covering 40% of projected 1985 requirements have already
been negotiated.
China: New Buyer of US Cotton The PRC has emerged as a major
customer for US cotton.
Brazil's Economic Miracle: No End in Sight For the sixth straight
year, Brazil's economic growth will remain the world's highest. .6
The Impact of Libyan Oil Nationalization Libya's recent
nationalization of the major international oil companies' production
will not cause significant disruption of US supplies. 8
Publications of Interest
Summaries of Recent Publications
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Activity
Inside Back Cover
Note: Comments and queries on the contents of this nuhiication aic welcomed. They may be directed
25X1 to
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0 S>I?,CRE!'
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Worldwide Grain Developments
Despite harvesting problems, a record Soviet grain crop is still expected.
Continued wet weather in portions of the European USSR during the last
week of August probably lowered the quality of unthreshed grain. Weather
in the New Lands area, where the harvest is in full swing, has generally
been favorable. In Canada the Wheat Board is deferring new export
commitments until it can assess the size of the current harvest. Brazil has
been informed that it will be mid-October before its request to purchase
an additional 400,000 tons of Canadian wheat can be considered. A
Philippine request for more Canadian wheat has not been turned down,
Polish officials are expected to arrive in Canada
this week to dicker with the Wheat Board.
West Germany Considers Subsidizing Export Credits
to Communist Countries
The West German government is considering a proposal to subsidize
export credits to Communist countries. France, Italy, and the United
Kingdom have long done so, and the United States and Japan have recently
provided low-interest loans through their Export-Import banks to
supplement financing by commercial banks at commercial rates. Even
without such subsidies, West Germany has been the major Western supplier
to Communist countries, and approval of the proposal, expected within
the next few weeks, would make West Germany an even tougher competitor.
(UNCLASSIFIED)
Australia to Control Beef Exports
Canberra is expected to impose export controls on meat in the next
few weeks. Controls probably will take the form of selective quotas, which
will prevent the export of those types of meat in high demand on the
domestic market. Beef of first-grade export quality, shipped primarily to
Japan and the United Kingdom, will be hardest hit by the proposed controls.
Shipments to the United States which account for pearl half of US beef
imports, will also be affected. 25X1
SECRET 6 September 1973
\,
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? SECRET
Moderate Economic Policy for China
Premier Chou En-lai's recent report to the Tenth Party Congress implies
continuation of the moderate economic policy that has so far characterized
the Fourth Five-Year Plan (1971-75). Chou, who devoted most of the report
to denouncing the Lin Piao antiparty plot and the machinations of the
Soviet Union, claimed that industry, agriculture, transportation, finance, and
trade were doing well and noted the stability of prices and the absence
of external or internal debt. At the same time, he repeated one of his
favorite themes - "Economically ours is still a poor and developing
country" - and called for continued hard work, self-reliance, and frugality.
Nowhere in his report did Chou hint of any moves against the private plot
or income differentials based on skill and effort.
Renewed US/Sudanese Commercial Ties
Four contracts worth $43 million signal the first substantial input of
US private capital and technology into Sudan since diplomatic relations
were restored in July 1972. The contracts cover the purchase of two Boeing
707s by Sudan Airways and the construction of a textile mill, an earth
satellite communications station near Khartoum and a r cell battery
plant.
Premier Jalud on Libyan Oil
Libyan oil is "worth $6 per barrel."
Contrary to recent press reports, Tripoli has neither raised the price
of its oil to $6 per barrel nor rejected payments in dollars. According to
the text of Prime Minister Jalud's press conference broadcast by Tripoli
Radio on 2 September, Jalud discussed the price of oil and oil payments
in dollars, but did not explicitly refuse to sell oil for dollars or mention
a $6 per barrel price. He did, however, enumerate several possible solutions
to the problem of holding reserves in currencies of uncertain future value,
and pointed to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as
possibly being able to find a solution. In the past, Jalud has said that
2
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Soviet RYAD Computer Program
The Soviet Union's RYAD program to develop a series of
third-generation computers is at least three years behind schedule, and
large-scale production is not likely for several years.
By modeling RYAD computers after the IBM 360 series, the USSR
hoped to save both time and money and make use of the large stock of
IBM software. The program has been hampered by shortages of high-quality
components, by out-of-date production and testing techniques, and by
absence of effective direction and coordination.
The USSR persuaded Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany,
Hungary, and Poland to de-emphasize their own computer plans and help
develop some RYAD models. Only the smaller RYAD models have reached
limited-series production or the customer-testing stage. The Soviet Union
has the sole responsibility for producing the two largest RYADs, which
are roughly comparable with IBM's powerful 360-75 and 360-85.
The USSR apparently was counting on producing 3,000-5,000 RYADs
per year by 1975. Moscow now recognizes that only a few hundred machines
actually will be produced by that year and has abandoned plans to phase
out production of the MINSK-32 - an obsolete second-generation
computer. The MINSK-32 will be the foundation of the automated
management systems to be set up during 1973-75.
Additional Western help will be critical in determining how fast the
Soviet Union can mass-produce reliable RYAD models. The United States,
France, the United Kingdom, and Japan already have supplied machinery
and technology to manufacture key RYAD components. Moscow now is
seeking to purchase complete automated plants for the manufacture of
integrated circuits magnetic tae and disc nackq- di , magnetic cores,
and printers.
3
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China: Production and Imports of Cotton
Importsl
Year
Production
Total
tromtle
United Stater
1957
7,500
400
1961
4,000
290
1962
4,000
120
1963
4,000
360
1964
6,000
825
1965
7,000
810
1966
7,500
600
1967
8,500
490
1968
7,500
330
1969
8,000
310
1970
8,000
360
1971
7,500
430
1972
5,500
740
1973
6,5002
2,000
510
1974
N.A.
1,6002
8002
1. Data are for the cotton year 1 August of the previous year through 31 July of
the stated year.
2. Forecast.
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China: New Buyei of US Cotton
In the past nine months, China has emerged as a major customer for
US cotton. Whereas the United States had shipped no cotton to the PRC
prior to this year, 510,000 bales - about 10% of annual US cotton
exports -- were shipped in February-July 1973. Furthermore, Peking has
already contracted for more than 750,000 bales of American cotton for
delivery in the 1973/74 cotton year, beginning 1 August 1973, or about
12% of export commitments out of the new US crop. Foreign demand
for US cotton is so strong that trade sources fear certain grades may
ultimately be oversold.
Because of pressing needs for food grain, Peking has squeezed cotton
acreage to provide more acreage for foodstuffs. In recent years, declining
output and growing domestic requirements have forced China to step up
imports of cotton (see the table). Unfavorable growing conditions in 1971
and 1972 reduced domestic output by about 5% and 25%, respectively.
Cotton imports increased from 310,000 bales in 1968/69 to 740,000 bales
in 1971/721. and skyrocketed to two million bales in 1972/73. The dramatic
growth in cotton imports has not prevented temporary cuts in the already
meager textile ration.
In the past, China imported primarily long staple cotton, chiefly for
use in textiles for export. This year, most imports are short and medium
length cotton - similar to that grown domestically in China and presumably
earmarked for home consumption.
China's cotton crop should increase by roughly one million bales this
year. Nevertheless, output will be substantially below the 1965-71 average
because of reduced acreage. Imports in 1973/74 are expected to decline
to about 1.6 million bales unless growing conditions deteriorate. Since
sizable quantities of cotton of the desired grade and staple might not be
available elsewhere, Peking could be forced to ser- still more US cotton.
5
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? 51?;URET
BRAZIL Economic Indicators
15.0 1
ANNUAL INCREASE IN REAL GNP (Percent)
10.0 1.
5.0
0
Ila
1010 60 52 54 ? 56 . 58 60 62
SECRET
68 70 72
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SI1,(:RE'I'
Brazil's Economic Miracle: No End in Sight*
Brazil's economy continues to set a blistering pace. For the sixth
straight year, real GNP is increasing by 9% or better. Relying on sound
advice from their economics ministers, the military governments have
succeeded in moderating inflation, stimulating investment and exports, and
attracting foreign capital.
Agricultural production will rise about 5% in 1973 despite frost damage
to the coffee crop. Industrial production will grow about 14% even though
tight raw material supplies may slow output during the second half of the
year. Investment has been rising rapidly and probably will reach 22 of
GNP this year, compared with 15% in 1967. Brazil continues to draw heavily
on foreign capital to finance its investment effort.
Export growth in 1973 will approach 40%/% in money terms, 15 in
real terms. Brazil has diversified its exports to include manufactured goods,
minerals, and new agricultural commodities, thus reducing dependence on
coffee and other traditional exports. Markets also are being diversified; the
United States now takes only about 20"%% of Brazil's exports, compared with
33% a few years ago.
Despite its booming exports, Brazil still runs a trade deficit because
of the economy's heavy demand for imports. The current account deficit
in 1973 probably will exceed $1.5 billion. At the same time, the overall
balance of payments continues to show a large surplus because of a huge
inflow of foreign capital. Brazil's foreign exchange reserves have increased
from only $200 million in 1967 to $6.0 billion. Although the United States
still supplies a substantial share of Brazil's foreign capital, the greater part
now comes from the Eurodollar market, from credits granted by exporters
in Europe and Japan, and from the official international lending agencies.
Beyond the mid-1970s, some slackening in the impressive rate of
economic growth is expected. Thus far, exports and foreign reserves have
increased rapidly enough to improve Brazil's credit standing abroad despite
rising debt. Exports in recent years have benefited from exceptionally high
prices, and gains from this source are likely to subside. Brazil will then
need to restrict its foreign borrowing to maintain a reasonable debt-to-export
ratio, and the economy will begin to encounter some balance-of-payments
constraints.
Durability, September 1973,
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51!;C:KL"1'
BRAZIL: Growth of the Current Account Deficit
and Net Foreign Capital Inflow
Financial Credlte
Olllclnl Flnanclne and
Suppliers Credits
Direct Investment and Special Drawing
YfR
1972
Estimated
1973
Projected
With the inauguration of a new president early next year, opportunities
could arise for elements hostile to foreign capital and eager to redistribute
income. Inca redistribution has been a chronic issue, since 10% of the
population receives nearly 50% of the total income. Brazil is still a poor
country, with per capita income somewhat less than the Latin American
average. A deteriorating climate for foreign investment or a major effort
to redistribute income could also de ress Brazil's economic growth.
7
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6 September 1973
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I SIX&1Zls'1'
The Impact of Libyan Oil Nationalization
Libya's 5110 nationalization of the Libyan interests of five major
international oil companies on I September will not cause significant supply
problems for the United states. The companies -- Exxon, Standard Oil
(California), Texaco, Mobil, and Royal Dutch Shell - are faced with either
accepting 51`/, Libyan ownership or being taken over completely.
The rive companies currently produce about 700,000 barrels per day --
about 3011o of current Libyan production -- and export about 75% of their
Libyan oil to Western Europe. The major companies' exports to the United
States (both direct and indirect from foreign export refineries) are currently
about 130,000 b/d, or about No of US oil imports (see the table).
Estimated Libyan Oil Exports to the United States
January-August 1973
Barrels per Day
Total From Major
Export Companies
Total 380,000
Crude to US
refineries 162,000
Crur'c? for direct
burning 24,000
Products from
Caribbean and
European
refineries 194,000
130,000
If the companies are successful in blocking the sale of nationalized
oil, Libyan officials plan to increase oil production from fields already under
their control through the previous nationalization of British Petroleum and
Bunker-Hunt and recent agreements with Occidental, Continental,
Amerada-Hess, and the Italian State Oil Company, ENI. Surplus capacity
in oilfields operated by these companies is nearly 700,000 b/d.
8
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Publications of Interest
LDC Debt Service Burden: A Comparison of Western
and Communist 1'roariuns
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UNCLASSIFIED
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Avenge Annual
Growth Rile Since
Average Annual
Growth ante allies
nt Chenp
P
Portent Change
Latest [ram Previous I Year 3 Months
Parlud Period 1070 Earlier Earlier
GNP'
WHOL
ESALE
erce
e
Latest tram Previous I Year 3 Months
Period Polled 1010 Earlier Earlier
PRICES
(Constant Market Prices)
United States
Ouartsr
73 II,
0.6
0.4
Previous
Ouerter
2,5
(Induelrl
United
al)
States
Jul 73
7.5
8.3
Japan
73 II
1.4
130
5.0
Japan
Jul 73
15.7
17.8
West Germany
13 11
-1.1
7.2
-4.2
West G
ermany
Jul 73
7,3
7.8
France
73 1
3.3
5.1
13.0
Franco
Jun 73
13.0
9.1
United Kingdom
73 II
0.7
5.4
2.8
United
Kingdom
Jun 73
0.2
3.7
Italy
73 I
0.8
6.2
3.4
Italy
Jun 73
18.2
23.2
Canada
73 1
2.0
0.0
12.E
Canada
Jun 73
10.1
15.8
United States
Jul 73
1.1
6.7
10.2
8.1
United
States
Jul 73
5.7
6.3
Japan
Jun 73
0.4
9.2
19.4
13.0
Japan
Jul 73
11.9
11.0
West Germany
May 73
1,1
4,2
7.2
-4.4
West G
ermany
Jul 73
7,5
6.4
France
Jun 73
-1.5
7.1
8.9
0
France
Jul 73
7.4
10.6
United Kingdom
Jun 73
0.4
3.9
10.4
-1.4
United
Kingdom
Jul 73
9.4
7.0
Italy
Jun 73
-1,0
2.8
10.2
31.7
Italy
Jul 73
11.7
12.2
C.,ada
Jun 73
0.9
7.0
1n5
9.5
Canada
Jul 73
7.7
10.4
RETAIL SALES'
(Current Prices)
United States
Jul 73
3.3
11.8
14.2
18.5
United
States
Jul 73
0.4
7.8
0.7
10.8
Japan
Mar 73
4.0
12.9
24.8
45.2
Japan
May 73
-0.6
19.0
30.5
20.8
West Germany
Jun 73
-1.3
9.3
10.0
11,6
West
Germany
Jul 73
-3,4
9.0
3.1
-21.5
France
May 73
8.7
5.3
13.4
9.6
France
Mar 73
1.2
12.7
10.4
-2.1
United Kingdom
Apr 73
-7.2
9.6
11.2
-3.0
United
Kingdom
Jul 73
2.3
12.2
13.0
12.9
Italy
Feb 73
9.0
11.5
18.8
24.1
Italy
Feb 73
2.1
20.1
18.7
21.5
Canada
Jun 73
0.5
10.4
10.4
-0.3
Canad
a
May 73
2.3
14.1
17.5
7.0.3
MONEY-MARKET RATES
12 Months 3 Months I Month
Representative Rates Latest Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Prime finance paper
31 Aug
9.00
4.63
6.75
8.13
Japan
Call money
25 Aug
7.50
4.25
6.00
7.50
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
31 Aug
13.75
4.75
14.00
14.25
France
Call money
24 Aug
9.38
3.75
7.63
8.38
United Kingdom
Local authority deposits
24 Aug
14.25
NA.
7.52
10.38
Canada
Finance paper
31 Aug
8.75
5.13
6.50
7.50
'
Euro?Dollars
Three-month deposits
31 Aug
11.44
5.44
8.69
11.19
Seasonally Adjusted
6Sep73
UNCLASSIFIED
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EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Average Annual
Growth -11416 Office
Percent Change
Latest Item Previous I Year 3 Months
Puled Period 1070 Earlier ' Earlier
EXPORT !)RICES
(US $I
United States I Jun 73
Japan Jul 73
West Germany May 73
France Apr 73
United Kingdom Jun 73
Italy Apr 7.3
Canada Apr 73
EXPORT PRICES
(National Currency)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
(National Currency)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
1.0
1.7
3,6
-0.8
3.1
0.9
3.5
Jun 73 I 1.6
Jul 73 1.3
May 73 0.0
Apr 73 -0.4
Jun 73 1.2
Apr 73 2.6
Apr 73 3.6
Jun 73
Jul 73
May 73
Apr 73
Jun 73
Apr 73
Mar 73
0.4
4.0
1.1
2.4
1.7
3.3
3.4
OFFICIAL RESERVES
Latest Period
Fed at
0.7
12.3
11.8
12.1
11.2
8.2
6.0
6.7
1.8
1.4
4.6
8.8
5.7
4.8
9.7
5.0
0.8
3,3
11.4
8.6
4.0
14.0
23.3
17,0
15.6
11.6
9.8
12.5
14.0
8.0
2.3
4.8
10.6
10.4
13.0
18.4
24.0
3.8
5.0
28.4
18.7
0.2
1 Yen(
June 1970 Earlier
EXPORTS'
(l,o.t,,)
26.0 United States
20.4 Japan
64.7 West Germany
68.8 France
34.1 United Kingdom
24.7 Italy
32.8 Canada
IMPORTS'
25.0 United States
17.0 Japan
10.2 West Germany
0.8 France
15.1 United Kingdom
28.0 Italy
33,4 Canada
Latest
Period
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jun 73
Jun 73
When US 6 11173 1072
6,800 Jan?Jul 38,168 27,402
3,114 Jah?Jul 19,762 15.350
0,002 Jon-Jul 35,018 20,009
3,300 J611?Jul 20,292 14,824
2,482 Jon-Jul 10,117 13,541
1,037 Jon-Jun 9,479 8,808
2,132 Jon-Jun 11,984 9,700
Letert cumulative (Million US Si
Million us $ 1913 1972
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jul 73
Jun 73
Jun 73
TRADE BALANCE"
Latest
Period
32.4 United States Jul 73
48.5 Japan Jul 73
6.5 West Germany Jut 73
1.0 France Jul 73
34.7 United Kingdom Jul 73
49.2 Italy Jun 73
18.4 Canada Jun 73
3 Months
Earlier
United States
Jul 73
14.0
16.3
13.1
14
0
Japan
Aug 73
15.1
4.1
16.4
.
15
9
West Germany
Jul 73
42.4
8.8
24.8
.
30
6
France
Jul 73
10.4
4.4
9.9
.
11.5
United Kingdom
Jul 73
6.6
2.8
6.1
6.1
Italy
Jun 73
6.0
4.7
6;4
8
3
Canada
Jul 73
5.8
4.3
6.2
.
0.1
2,713
4,007
3,126
2,883
2,212
1,994
Jon-Jul
Jan-Jul
Jon-Jul
Jan-Jul
Jon-Jul
Jan-Jun
Jon-Jun
38,881
18,507
28,016
19,492
18,407
10,720
11,110
31,348
10,126
21.280
14,276
13,978
8,092
9,082
funmtolive IMilhnn US Si
Million Its S 1073 1912
107 Jon-Jul -703
400 Jan-Jul 3,244
1,395 Jon-Jul 7,902
183 Jon-Jul 801
-402 Jon-Jul -2,289
-275 Jon-Jun -1,241
138 Jan-Jun 874
-3,856
5,233
4,813
549
-438
776
818
EXCHANGE RATES (Spot Rate)
As of 31 Aug 73 Us $
Per Ihmii
Japan Yet
West Germany (0outsche France (Franc) Mork(
pound
United Kingdom 1111g)
Italy (Lire(
Canada (Dollar)
0.0038
0.4005
0.2319
2.4588
0.0018
0.9945
Percent Change from _
Oec 60 10 Doc 71 10 Mir 33 24 Aug 73
36.01
81.69
14.86
-11.89
10.56
7.82
18.08
31.00
17.78
-5.03
2.91
-0.33
-0.89
14.80
5.22
-0.09
0
-0.32
-0.05
0.22
-0.28
0
0.23
-0.11
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES
As of 31 Aug 73 Percent Change tom
United States
-1857
-9.02
Japan
23.79
9.79
West Germany
31.72
14.71
France
-12.02
1.20
United Kingdom
-32.77
-18
65
'S
Italy
15
00
.
'13
8
easonally Adjusted
Canada
-
.
3.93
.
2
-2.60
8 Sep 73
-2.24 0.01
-2.27 -0.08
9.69 0.17
-1.23 -0.45
-4.29 0.01
-7.01 0.18
-0.94 -0.11
UNCLASSIFIED
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/09: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140030-4 ?