AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
20
Document Creation Date: 
December 27, 2016
Document Release Date: 
March 12, 2012
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
February 10, 1987
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2.pdf673.54 KB
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R00060082066-'1-2 Directorate of Top Secret Intelligence DATE ,=2 ArE5,4 /11 ii2 a a /6 DOC NO ...I-if -too/ yd?je OIR 09 P & PD 40 ? 25X1 Afghanistan Situation Report (u) (4, 10 February 1987 p Seciet NESA M 87-200I6JX SOVA M 87-20014JX reoruary iww Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T06114R60-06-00820001-2 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 . I . I I ..11 1 _Li _ I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT CONTENTS CEASE-FIRE IN NAME ONLY 2 MASOOD MAINTAINS HIGH LEVELS OF COMBAT 3 nntai_r_l Insurgent commander Masood's forces increase ? activity last year in northern Afghanistan. LIMITED RESISTANCE SUCCESS AT OIC SUMMIT 3 The Afghan resistance delegation performed credibly at the OIC summit in Kuwait last month, but its international impact was limited by the Kuwaiti's decision to limit press coverage of its activities. IMPLICATIONS OF A DRY WINTER 5 The limited snowfall this winter in Afghanistan has caused a shortage of water for hydroelectric plants and may also affect crop yields later in the year. INDIAN MEDICAL SUPPORT FOR THE AFGHAN ARMY recently reported that Afghan Army personnel are receiving medical treatment in India and that some Indian medical personnel are serving in Afghanistan. 6 IN BRIEF 6 10 February 1987 NESA M 87-20016JX SOVA M 87-20014JX 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 PERSPECTIVE KEEPING UP ECONOMIC APPEARANCES MORE DIFFICULT 10 IN 1986 We believe that the Afghan regime was less successful in 1986 than in 1985 in efforts to maintain an illusion of economic normalcy. With only dim prospects for real improvements in the economy, regime dependency on the USSR probably will deepen. This document was prepared by the Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the Office of Soviet Analysis. i Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 10 February 1987 NESA M 87-20016JX SOVA M 87-20014JX 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 CEASE-FIRE IN NAME ONLY Despite the Afghan regime's unilaterally declared cease-fire, Soviet and Afghan forces conducted offensives last week against insurgent logistics depots and infiltration routes in the Pakistani-Afghan border regions. 25X1 25X1 25X1 2 10 February 1987 NESA M 87-20016JX SOVA M 87-20014JX 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 MASOOD MAINTAINS HIGH LEVELS OF COMBAT COMMENT: One of Masood's primary goals is to increase dramatically the level of "day-to-day" combat in the north. To gain time for his program, Masood has instructed his men in Parwan and Kapisa Provinces to maintain military pressure on regime forces while seeking to secure the cooperation of rival insurgent groups. Although Masood also wants to increase the number of high visibility attacks on regime garrisons in the northern regions--such as at Farkhar and Nahrin--he probably will continue to rely primarily on guerrilla-style operations and tactics. LIMITED RESISTANCE SUCCESS AT OIC SUMMIT The Afghan resistance delegation to the OIC summit in Kuwait last month apparently is unhappy with the way the Kuwaitis controlled its movements and its failure to attract media coverage. Pakistani officials claim the Kuwaitis "blacked out" media coverage of the 3 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 10 February 1987 25X1 NESA M 87-20016JX SOVA M 87-20014JX Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 I it ii ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 resistance to avoid offending the Soviets. The insurgent group met with OIC Secretary General Pirzada, and Sayyaf, head of Ittihad--i-Islami Barai Azadi Afghanistan, delivered a well-received, 45-minute speech in fluent Arabic. Sayyaf urged the Islamic countries to accept resistance offices, warned them not to be deceived by the recent Soviet-Kabul peace proposals, and recommended that ance be given Afghanistan's seat in the OIC. COMMENT: The resistance leaders?especially Sayyaf and Gulbuddin--performed credibly at the summit, avoiding public displays of disunity that have occasionally embarrassed them in the past. Aside from making some useful contacts, however, the insurgents' overall impact was limited by the Kuwaiti decision to deny them media coverage. Even the summit's decision to call on the Soviets by name to withdraw from Afghanistan owes less to resistance efforts than to Pakistan's desire to avoid offending Moscow by outright condemnation of the war in the OIC resolution. IMPLICATIONS OF A DRY WINTER According to the US Embassy in Kabul, snowfall has been below normal in Afghanistan this winter, contributing to electricity shortages in Kabul. The regime has been forced to implement energy conservation measures, such as limiting hours of service. The light winter snowfall also may affect this year's harvest. A source of the US Embassy claims that even if late-winter snows are heavier than normal, they will be less beneficial than early snowfall because they melt faster and usually dissipate in fast runoff rather than seep into the soil and replenish aquifers. COMMENT: Low precipitation levels last winter contributed to shortages and rising prices for some basic foodstuffs. Inadequate precipitation probably is also having a negative impact on Kabul's water supply, already overtaxPri by thP 1 rge influx of refugees in recent years. 5 10 February 1987 NESA M 87-20016JX SOVA M 87-20014JX 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 INDIAN MEDICAL SUPPORT FOR THE AFGHAN ARMY In January 1987 Afghan Army casualties were receiving medical treatment at an Indian military hospital and an unknown number of Indian medical personnel were deployed with Afghan Army field units, that at least 100 Indian medical personnel--primarily civilians--were in Kabul under a one-year contract to provide support for the Afghan Army. COMMENT: Indian officials have publicly denied that India has aided or trained Afghan Army personnel. Although we cannot confirm a current assistance effort, that New Delhi has provided some limited specialized military training for Afghan soldiers under an agreement made prior to the Soviet invasion in 1979. IN BRIEF Afghan Foreign Minister Abdol Wakil paid an official visit to India between 7 and 11 February. The visit was the first by an Afghan Foreign Minister since the Soviet invasion in 1979. Wakil described his talks in New Delhi, according to the US Embassy, as "urgent" and pertaining to the next session of Geneva peace talks. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 v 6 10 February 1987 NESA M 87-20016JX SOVA M 87-20014JX 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 the Afghan Army has deployed one battery of four multiple rocket launchers to each of three infantry divisions in eastern Afghanistan. This is the first time that multiple rocket launchers have been issued to Afghan divisions; they usually are deployed at the corps- or army-level. The Soviets have delivered 47 BM-14s since early January-- enough to provide all remaining Afghan infantry divisions with a battery. Two leaders of Kabul's national reconciliation campaign--Haji Abol Ahad Arzbegi of Konduz Province and Inayatullah of Nangarhar Province--were assassinated by insurgents in early February. The resistance also captured a 14-member reconciliation delegation in Parvan Province, according to press accounts. Kabul's inability to protect its representatives almost certainly will further limit the regime's ability to recruit non-party figures for the faltering reconciliation effort. The US Mission in Geneva reports that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) plans to send a five-member team to Kabul by 15 February as part of a recently negotiated agreement with the Afghan regime 7 10 February 1987 NESA M 87-20016JX SOVA M 87-20014JX 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 to reestablish an office there. The delegation has been guaranteed access to regime-held prisoners and will begin its monitoring activities with a visit to Pol-e Charki prison outside Kabul. The ICRC also intends to staff orthopedic medical teams in Herat and Qandahar with Western European medical personnel. The Soviets are continuing to upgrade their logistics infrastructure in Afghanistan. They increased the storage capacity of a petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) facility at Pol-e Khomri, the largest in Afghanistan, by 40 percent--7,000 metric tons--in 1986, Nine new horizontal tanks, which will be buried, provide the additional capacity. 8 10 February 1987 NESA M 87-20016JX SOVA M 87-20014JX 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/09/05: CIA-RDP90T00114R000600820001-2 25X1 60 40 !Mashhad ? 36 IRAN 32 Zihedin ? 28 Chard:hoe or Baku 0=c,? -;t,Tashkent So d S 4 VIET U, I 0 N lashan Karshi c T mez . Feyzibad ?left J mann J-Mazir-a \ YO?\62(\ T vie Eshka he --N. ( , . TAKHAR ?,.., IShrbergiliSICatif.?LKH 1? IViirilm\-40 d B. - 1 BADAKHS N VWZJAN \,6' 1 BA i? s't O ' Ba h Is . . SAMANGaNi r0i-0 knOMIri N"' . ____f--' Maymanfeh '1 iSamangiin .1 . g i;-- ?J FARvi,B .i 7---- wraghon i BAR_ - ?Ilareh-ye ---7. ,........ . 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