SUDAN: STATUS OF THE SOUTHERN INSURGENCY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380033-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 28, 2013
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: December 1, 1988
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380033-0
Talking Points for the DDI's Luncheon
at State with the DDO
1 December 1988
Sudan: Status of the Southern Insurgency
The Political Front
A government coalition party, the Democratic Unionist
Party (DUP), and the southern insurgents, the Sudanese
People's Liberation Army (SPLA), in mid-November 1988 signed
a peace accord in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia to end the five year
civil war.
--The agreement calls for: a ceasefire, the lifting of
national emergency laws, freezing discussions on the
implementation of Islamic Law--a key rebel demand--
and the abrogation of international military pacts
before convening a national constitutional
convention.
The agreement must be endorsed in Khartoum by the other
coalition parties, the Umma Party and the National Islamic
Front (NIF). The NIF, however, opposes the agreement
because it would postpone the implementation of Islamic law,
while Prime Minister Sadiq al-Mahdi and his Umma party are
reluctant to accept it fearing that the NIF will leave the
government and take its well-organized membership to the
streets.
The Military Front
On the battlefield the insurgents retain the
initiative.
--The SPLA during the summer rains captured a number
of small government garrisons while isolating Juba,
the de facto capital of the south.
The rebel rainy season operations have disrupted
government preparations for a winter dry season campaign to
reverse rebel gains.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380033-0
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380033-0
--The Army probably hopes to use a negotiated ceasefire
as a respite from rebel pressure to resupply its
depleted forces in the south.
--Conversely, the rebels probably hope that a ceasefire
will preclude any government operations this winter
when government forces will have greater tactical
mobility.
In the event that Khartoum's political infighting continues
to prevent the implementation of a ceasefire, we believe the
government will be hard-pressed to reverse rebel gains and
may even suffer additional losses this winter.
Foreign Military Assistance
The deteriorating security situation this summer forced
the government to seek Iraqi and Libyan military assistance.
--Baghdad and Tripoli airlifted arms and ammunition
to Khartoum and three Libyan-piloted MIG-23s and two
AN-26 light transport aircraft currently are deployed
in Sudan, performing bombing missions against SPLA
positions.
In our view, this assistance will not significantly
contribute to the government's counterinsurgency efforts,
but future government setbacks in the south are likely to
increase Kh7toum's dependence on Ira7i. and Libyan
assistance.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380033-0