LEBANESE SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380018-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 28, 2013
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: September 26, 1988
• Content Type: REPORT

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, Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380018-7 25X1
SUBJECT: Lebanese Situation
Distribution:
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - D/NESA
1 - DD/NESA
- C/NESA/AI1
1 - C/NESA/AI/L
1 - NESA/AI/L/ht
1 - Chrono
DI/NESA/AI/L,
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(26 Sep 88) 25X1
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I)Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380018-7 25x1
Talking Points for the ADDI'S HPSCI Meeting
26 September 1988
Lebanese Situation
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Lebanon's Christians blocked the election of a pro-Syrian candidate,
former President Sulayman Franjiyah, at the scheduled meeting of Parliament
on 18 August. Since then, they have rejected the Syrian and US supported
presidential candidate Mikhail Daher, and blocked two last minute attempts to
elect a new President by boycotting Parliament. On September 22, just as his
term of office was about to expire, President Gemayel appointed Army
Commander Awn head of a transition government charged with electing a new
President. The non-Christian members of the Cabinet and Syria claim the
previously serving, Muslim-led cabinet of Salim al-Huss is the country's
legitimate authority.
Lebanon now has two rival governments, making renewed violence more
likely, and reducing prospects of electing a new chief of state.
-- Both sides seem willing to talk for now, but neither is making any
concessions. Time is cementing the partition.
Syria: Key Actor
Syria is determined to see that the central government in Lebanon is
responsive to Damascus' dictates and, specifically, that Lebanon does not
become a base for anti-Syrian subversion by Iraq or Israel. The Syrians occupy
65 percent of the country and are well positioned to exercise political influence
in Lebanon.
-- At Syrian urging, Muslim Army brigades and pro-Syrian militias
are moving artillery into the Beirut area and are otherwise
preparing for a confrontation with the Christians.
Christian Perceptions
Lead by Awn and Lebanese Forces (LF) militia chief Samir JatJa, the
Christians see themselves as increasingly isolated. Efforts by the LF to find new
outside support could expand the problem. Christian hopes of Iraqi and Israeli
support--however exaggerated--will stiffen their opposition to Syria.
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-- Iraq has been providing financial and military support to the Christians
over the past few months. Although we believe arms deliveries have been
limited, rBaghdad is going to deliver about 100
armored vehicles in the near future.
-- Israel is keeping a low profile and is mostly concerned with the security
zone in the south.
Implications for the US
If major fighting breaks out, Syrian and pro-Syrian forces will shell the
Christian enclave where our Embassy is located. In addition, hardline Christians
who view the aborted US-Syrian proposed presidential candidate as a US "sell
out" could target our Embassy.
-- The Embassy has reduced personnel strength to about 25 from
about 50.
-- Press reports from Beirut note isolated shelling incidents and
skirmishes along the border between Muslim and Christian Beirut.
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Background Notes;
Embassy Transportation:
-- All travel to and from Lebanon for the Embassy is by
British RAF base at Akrotiri, Cyprus.
-- The Lebanese Army last week denied us use of the LZ at the Embassy
compound, requiring us to use one at a Lebanese Army base. The
Lebanese did allow Ambassador McCarthy to use the Embassy LZ on
Saturday, however.
elicopter from the
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