LEBANESE SITUATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380017-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 28, 2013
• Sequence Number: 17
• Publication Date: September 29, 1988
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2013/10/28: CIA-RDP06T00412R000707380017-8 25X1
SUBJECT: Lebanese Situation
Distribution:
10 - DCI
1 - DDI
1 - ADDI
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - D/NESA
1 - DD/NESA
1 _-_C/NESA/AI
1 - C/NESA/AI/L
1 - NESA/AI/L/ht
1 - Chrono
DI/NESA/AI/L
(28 Sep 88)
14'
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Talking Points for the DCI
29 September 1988
Lebanese Situation:
Continuing Tension, but No Major Fighting Yet
Lebanon now has two rival governments, making renewed violence
more likely, and reducing prospects of electing a new chief of
state.
--Both sides appear conciliatory in public, but neither is
making any concessions. Time is cementing the partition.
--Muslim Prime Minister Huss is widely expected to order
Christian Prime Minister Awn to return to his Army duties
or be fired, an ultimatum that almost certainly would
precipitate a showdown.
Syria: Key Actor
Syria is determined to see that the central government in
Lebanon is responsive to Damascus' dictates and, specifically, that
Lebanon does not become a base for anti-Syrian subversion by Iraq
or Israel. The Syrians occupy 65 percent of the country and are
well positioned to exercise influence.
--We believe Syria still wants to cooperate with the US but
will use force ultimately.
--Damascus has 11-12,000 troops in the Beirut area (28,000
in all of Lebanon), but would need more to challenge the
Christians and maintain security in West Beirut at the
same time.
--At Syrian urging, Muslim Army brigades and pro-Syrian
militias are moving artillery into the Beirut area and
are otherwise preparing for a confrontation with the
Christians.
--Syria has many options to pressure the Christians,
including using intermittent shelling, car bombs, small
scale military offensives on the periphery of the
Christian enclave as well as political pressure.
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Christian Developments
Led by Army Commander Awn and Lebanese Forces militia chief
Samir Ja'Ja, the Christians see themselves as increasingly
isolated. Efforts by the Lebanese Forces to find new outside
support could expand the problem. Christian hopes of Iraqi and
Israeli support--however exaggerated--will stiffen their opposition
to Syria.
--Iraq has been providing financial and military support to
the Christians over the past few months. Although we
believe arms deliveries have been limited,
Baghdad is going to deliver about 100
armored vehicles in the near future.
--Israel is keeping a low profile and is mostly concerned
with the security zone in the south.
Awn is a weak personality and overly ambitious. The Embassy
believes--and we agree--that he has no plan of action. Ja'Ja is
more clever and better organized but is a fanatic opposed to
compromise with Syria.
--Ja'Ja's militia has been conducting harassment operations
aimed at Syrian personnel in West Beirut. Some have been
quite deadly. We believe that his militia could expand
and intensify them in response to Syrian actions.
--Ja'Ja has been recruiting supporters within Christian
Army units for years, giving him enough influence to
prevent Awn from making concessions on his own to the
Muslims or Syrians.
Implications for US Personnel
If major fighting breaks out, Syrian and pro-Syrian forces
will shell the Christian enclave in which our Embassy is located.
In addition, hard-line Christians who view the failed US-Syrian
proposed presidential candidate as a US "sell out" could target our
Embassy.
--The Embassy has reduced personnel strength to about 30
from about 50.
--All travel to and from Lebanon for the Embassy is by
helicopter from the British Royal Air Force base at
Akrotiri, Cyprus.
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--The Lebanese Army last week denied us use of the landing
zone at the Embassy compound, requiring us to use one at
a Lebanese Army base. The Lebanese did allow Ambassador
McCarthy to use the Embassy facility last Saturday,
however.
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