CHINA: AGRICULTURE IN 1979

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CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0
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C
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18
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December 27, 2016
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April 21, 2014
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1
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Publication Date: 
May 1, 1980
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REPORT
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 , Foreign Assessment Center China: Agriculture in 1979 An Intelligence Assessment Confidential ER 80-10317 May 1980 Copy 1 8 4 25X1 5X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0 '"UG4te National Confidential Foreign Assessment Center China: Agriculture in 1979 An Intelligence Assessment Research for this report was completed on 16 May 1980. This assessment was prepared by China Resources Branch, China Division, I ice of Economic Research. Comments and queries are welcome and should be addressed to the Chief, China Resources Branch, OER Confidential ER 80-10317 May 1980 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 contwennat China: Agriculture in 1979 25X1 In 1979, China's total grain output was 332 million metric tons, 27 million tons above the record output of 1978. Records also were set in the production of oilseeds, livestock, and several cash crops. Cotton production rose slightly, but fell short of planned output. The increases were the result of 25X1 exceptionally favorable weather, of increased inputs, and, to a certain extent, of new policies designed to increase peasant productivity. Record imports of grain and cotton and large imports of soybeans, vegetable oils, and sugar reflect the leadership's desire simultaneously to ease the procurement burden on the peasants, to meet industrial needs, and to raise urban consumption levels. Despite rapid growth in agricultural imports, China has consistently maintained a favorable agricultural trade balance by expanding exports of high unit-value items such as raw silk and hogs. In 1980 imports are expected to maintain the high levels of 1979, exports are expected to climb, but at a lower rate. 25X1 iii Confidential Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 ? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 uonnuentiai China: Agriculture in 1979 The 1979 Crop China achieved record grain output for the second straight year in 1979. The total value of agricultural output increased 8.6 percent and was 4.2 percent above plan. Production benefited from unusually favorable weather and to a lesser extent from the increased use of modern inputs and the incentive effect of new agricul- tural policies. Beijing's estimate of total grain produc- tion was 332 million tons-27 million tons, or 9 percent, above the 1978 harvest.' With this increase and the continued high level of imports, per capita grain availability rose 8 percent?also the second straight year of large increases (see table 1). Peasant incomes from collective activities rose 13 percent in 1979 to 83.4 yuan per capita. Increased supplies of agricultural inputs played a major role in the record performance of 1979. While potassium fertilizer output fell in 1979, production of the two most important chemical fertilizers, phosphate and nitrogen, rose significantly (see table 2). During 1979 the average chemical fertilizer applied jumped from 89 to 109 kilograms per hectare. Also, more fields were placed under irrigation and drainage, and the percentage of machine-tilled farmland rose from 40.9 to 42.4 percent. ' In December 1979, the Chinese estimated 1979 grain production as 315 million tons. On 8 April 1980, Li Renjun, vice chairman of the State Planning Commission, stated that grain production had reached 324.9 million tons for 1979 and implied the production for 1978 had been revised upward from 304.8 to 309.8 million tons. A communique by the State Statistical Bureau on 30 April again raised 1979 grain output to 332.1 million tons but lowered the 1978 production back to 304.8. A similar pattern of revisions emerged following the 1978 harvest The recent adjustments in production figures raise questions as to the consistency of Chinese accounting methods. Some of the revisions may be explained by more complete reporting by local and provincial levels. The large revisions of 1979 production and changes in 1978 production, however, raise the possibility of a change in coverage or calculation methods, such as adjusting the conversion rate of potatoes to grain or including grain produced on private plots. Published individual provincial claims usually lag behind the publication of national claims; thus, more reporting must be received to confirm the composition of the 1979 harvest 1 25X1 The excellent 1979 harvest has encouraged China's agricultural policymakers in implementing new poli- cies aimed at increasing agricultural production and raising living standards. These policies consist of measures to (1) raise peasant productivity by offering higher prices, returning management decisions to local levels, and encouraging private activities; (2) raise yields by increasing the use of modern inputs and strengthening agricultural science; and (3) increase specialization by channeling investment into the most productive regions and reemphasizing long-neglected industrial crop and livestock production. Early Harvest The early harvest, which rose sharply for the third 25X1 straight year, made up an increased portion of the total harvest (see table 3). Winter wheat alone rose 7 million tons over the 1978 harvest. The increase was a result of favorable weather over most of the winter wheat growing areas and an expansion in sown area in the Middle and Lower Changjiang Basins. Officials in the Changjiang Basins, fearing a shortage of water for irrigation, planted winter wheat and other crops in fields normally reserved for early rice. Early rice output rose slightly despite some poor weather during the latter part of the growing season and a reduced 25X1 growing area. Spring wheat production also suffered from poor weather during the early growing stages, and probably only matched 1978 output. 25X1 Late Harvest 25X1 The late harvest, consisting of intermediate rice, late rice, and miscellaneous grains (mainly corn, sorghum and soybeans), was well above 1978 production. The25X1 intermediate rice crop rose sharply because of favor- able weather and a 2-percent increase in sown area. Some of the increase in growing area came from fields that were switched from early rice to winter crops. (Intermediate and late rice are transplanted in fields after winter crops are harvested.) The yield of late rice rose slightly, but a reduced growing area and localized unfavorable weather limited total output. Confidential 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0 Confidential Table 1 China: Grain Supply, Production, and Trade Kilograms Million Metric Tons Per Capita Availability' Total Supply Domestic Production Trade Net Imports Imports 2 Exports 1952 279 161 161 -0.36 0.02 0.38 1957 293 190 191 -1.34 0.14 1.48 1965 260 198 194 4.50 6.02 1.52 1970 286 246' 243 3.11 4.63 1.52 1971 282 248 246 1.66 3.13 1.47 1972 269 243 240 3.12 4.64 1.52 1973 294 271 266 5.32 7.90 2.58 1974 297 280 275 4.98 7.41 2.43 1975 297 286 284 1.54 3.50 1.96 1976 293 287 286 0.69 2.09 1.40 1977 291 289 283 6.22 7.30 1.08 1978 310 313 305 8.15 9.55 1.40 1979 334 342 332 10.04 11.42 1.38 ' Derived using yearend population figures. Including soybeans. The production of miscellaneous grains (including corn and soybeans) did well in most parts of the nation. In the northeast early plant growth was delayed in some areas by cool, wet weather and in other areas by a spring drought. Although the delayed harvest was completed before damaging frosts, the unfavorable weather early in the growing season caused a slight decline in output in Heilongjiang and Jilin Provinces. In the North China Plain, another major coarse grain area, the weather was more favorable and a good harvest more than accounted for reduced output in other areas. In southwest China, drought reduced output in Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces. Industrial Crops Most industrial crops showed sizable increases, led by the production of edible oils which rose to 6.44 million tons, or 23 percent over 1978 production (see table 4). Seventeen provinces reported increases over 1978 oil production, with four posting all-time highs. In Fujian, Henan, and Shaanxi Provinces production was up more than 50 percent (see appendix B). Rapeseed, Confidential which accounts for one-third of China's edible vegeta- ble oils, rose to a record output level that was 29 percent above 1978 production. Production of peanuts, sesame seeds, linseed, and sunflower seeds all rose above 1978. Much of this increase was due to an estimated 10-percent expansion in sown area for these five major oil-bearing crops. Despite a reduced growing area cotton production increased by 40,000 tons to 2.2 million tons, but output fell short of the 2.4-million-ton target (see table 5). Eleven provinces reported increases over 1978 produc- tion with Jiangsu Province reporting record yields and output (see appendix C). Jiangsu produced nearly one- fourth of the nation's output in 1979 on one-ninth of the over 4 million hectares planted nationwide. Hubei, the second leading province, also experienced relatively good weather and accounted for one-fifth of 1979 production. 2 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 ..umiununu cI Table 2 Table 3 China: 1979 Agricultural Inputs China: Composition of Grains Harvested Commodity Amount Increase Over 1978 (Percent) Production Chemical fertilizer ' 10.7 million tons Nitrogen 8.8 million tons Phosphate 1.8 million tons Potash 16,000 tons Chemical insecticides 537,000 tons Tractors 126,000 units Hand tractors 318,000 units Gunny bags 344 million units Irrigation pumps 71.2 million horse- power 22.6 15.5 75.9 -23.8 0.8 10.5 -1.9 18.6 8.6 In use Tractors 667,000 units Hand tractors 1.7 million units Irrigation pumps 71.2 million horse- power 19.7 21.7 8.6 Chemical fertilizer 109 kilograms per 22.5 hectare ' Based on nutrient content. Percent Total harvest 100 Early harvest 38 Summer grains 19 Winter wheat 16 Early rice 17 Spring wheat 2 Late harvest 62 Intermediate rice 15 Late rice 12 Miscellaneous grains 2 35 ' Including grain production for 1977, 1978, and preliminary 1979 information. Final breakdown of the 1979 harvest is incomplete. 'Including corn and soybeans; some miscellaneous grain crops are harvested throughout the year. 25X1 25X1 Table 4 China: 1979 Industrial Crops Table 5 Million Metric Tons China: Estimated Cotton Production Million Metric Tons Increase Over 1978 (Percent) 1952 1.3 1957 1.6 1.6 Oil crops 6.44 23.3 1965 2.0 Rapeseed 2.40 28.6 1970 2.2 Peanuts 2.82 18.7 1971 2.1 Sesame 042 29.5 1972 2.6 Sugarcane 21.51 1.9 1973 2.5 Sugar beets 3.10 15.0 1974 2.4 Jute, ambary hemp 1.09 0.1 1975 2.3 Silk cocoons 0.27 18.9 1976 2.0 Tea 0.28 3.4 1977 2.2 Rubber 0.10 2.4 1978 2.2 1979 3 Confidential 2-5161 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0 Confidential Livestock Production and procurement of pigs and eggs set all- time records during 1979 and stocks of pigs, sheep and goats, and large animals increased during the year (see table 6). Expansion of livestock production during 1979 can be attributed in part to an increased emphasis on the production of meat and meat byproducts, including the easing of restrictions on private owner- ship of livestock and the construction of state livestock breeding and production centers. Agricultural Trade: Export Balance During 1979, China's agricultural imports posted a growth rate of 33 percent (see table 7). This was the third straight year of rapid growth. Beijing has decided to maintain these high levels of agricultural imports even though they compete with machinery and tech- nology imports for foreign exchange. The excellent back-to-back harvests enabled the Chinese to increase agricultural exports at a rate well above that of recent years. As a result, the agricultural trade balance remained in surplus in 1979. The favorable trade balance has been maintained in part because exports are of higher unit value items, such as silk, animal products, and tea, while most imports are lower priced raw agricultural products. Imports Agricultural imports were boosted above the record level of 1978 by increased imports of grain, cotton, and soybeans and higher world prices. Vegetable oil and sugar imports continued at high levels (see table 8). Even with the dramatic increases in domestic produc- tion in 1978 and 1979, these imports: ? Allowed the government to maintain grain supplies in urban centers in north and northeast China without raising grain procurement above the 1971-75 level. ? Increased textile output. ? Raised or maintained consumption of other agricul- tural products. The government will feel considerable domestic pres- sure to continue these imports. China imported a record 10.9 million tons of grain in 1979. The record grain imports of 1979 consisted of 2.5 million tons of corn, 8.3 million tons of wheat, and 100,000 tons of barley. Confidential Table 6 Animal Products 25X1 25X1 Live Animals State Procurement 1979 Yearend Increase Over 1978 (Percent) 1979 Increase Over 1978 (Percent) Livestock (million head) Pigs 319.7 6.1 130 20.0 Sheep and Goats 183.1 7.8 10.7 11.4 Large Animals 94.6 0.7 1.5 10.3 Eggs (1,000 tons) 835 49.9 Multiyear agreements with Argentina, Canada, and Australia are being used by China to assure access to half of China's demand for imported grain through 1981. The agreements call for: ? Argentina to supply 800,000 to 1 million tons of grain annually through 1981. ? Canada to supply 2.8 to 3.5 million tons annually through July 1982. ? Australia to supply 7.5 million tons over the three- year period that ends in 1981. The United States, which in 1978 became the leading supplier of grain after a three-year absence from the Chinese market, supplies the rest of China's needs. Although the Chinese stated they would purchase 5-6 million tons of grain annually, actual calendar year imports have been closer to 4 million tons. China also remained an important importer of several other raw agricultural commodities. Cotton imports, for example, have become an important source of raw materials for the textile industry and now account for approximately 20 percent of China's cotton supply. Imports of soybeans in 1979 almost reached the record level of 1974 because of a large increase in imports during the fourth quarter of 1979. The source of the increased demand is not clear, but could reflect a government effort to increase the availability of soybean products in urban centers and to allow the ? export to Japan of premium quality soybeans from 4 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 (2_3X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 C Table 7 Value of Agricultural Trade' Million US $ 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979' Total imports, f.o.b. Of which: 4,625 6,805 6,830 5,580 6,605 10,265 14,740 Agricultural Of which: 1,565 2,120 1,215 880 1,920 2,320 3,080 Grain 775 1,090 625 300 655 960 1,350 Sugar 125 160 165 185 300 290 245 Oilseeds 60 150 15 5 115 35 145 Natural textile fibers 414 480 240 175 420 665 845 Total exports, f.o.b. Of which: 5,100 6,730 7,120 7,270 8,075 9,965 13,500 Agricultural Of which: 2,175 2,585 2,855 2,670 2,785 3,230 4,040 Live animals 135 195 215 230 245 255 305 Meat and fish 335 335 415 430 375 535 NA Grain 445 715 720 450 395 360 NA Fruits and vegetables 245 315 360 385 500 565 NA Tea and spices NA 100 100 140 180 215 NA Oilseeds 110 135 140 85 85 90 NA Natural textile fibers 330 190 250 285 290 400 NA Crude animal materials 170 185 230 260 335 370 NA Trade Balance 475 - 75- 290 1,690 1,475 295 -1,240 Agricultural 610 465 1,640 1,790 865 910 960 Nonagricultural -135 -540 -1,350 -100 610 -1,205 -2,200 ' Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. 2 Preliminary estimates for 1979 are based on official trade statistics and estimated tonnages of imported commodities. northeast China. The high level of soybean oil and sugar imports are in keeping with the policies aimed at raising living standards. China continued to import small amounts of agricul- tural machinery in 1979 to test the equipment under Chinese conditions and to gain access to new tech- nology. Exchanges of agricultural personnel, another form of technology transfer, will probably increase in the future. A Japanese firm is setting up a modern farm that will reclaim 20,000 hectares of wasteland in 5 25X1 25X1 Heilongjiang Province in exchange for soybeans. The Chinese probably feel that these compensation trade agreements are an attractive method of acquiring and paying for modern technology. Exports: High Unit Value Agricultural exports remain an important source of foreign exchange, although in recent years they have fallen as a share of total exports. The Chinese export a small portion of their large rice crop and a wide variety of other agricultural products, such as fruits and 25X1 Confidential Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0 Confidential Table 8 China: Trade in Agricultural Commodities Thousand Metric Tons 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 ' Imports Grain 3,128 4,642 7,642 6,790 3,459 2,061 6,937 9,437 10,855 Cotton 122 237 410 380 164 130 320 508 606 Soybeans 0 2 255 619 36 25 364 109 565 Soybean oil 0 10 58 0 11 13 166 104 104 Sugar 464 749 736 411 313 627 1,676 1,438 1,170 Exports Rice 924 899 2,142 1,985 1,440 900 800 1,200 1,000 Soybeans 460 370 310 340 330 178 120 100 280 ' Preliminary vegetables, raw silk, tea and spices, seafood, livestock, and livestock products. Most of these products are shipped to nearby Asian countries, and most impor- tantly to Hong Kong. We estimate China's rice exports at 1 million tons in 1979. This has been the normal level in the past except for the early 1970s when rice exports were particularly large. Chinese soybean exports increased to 280,000 tons in 1979, reflecting efforts to increase soybean exports from the northeastern provinces. Although above 1976-78 levels, soybean exports were still below the level of the early 1970s Outlook Crops in 1980. Prospects for the 1980 grain harvest are generally good. The weather, although not as good as the excellent conditions that prevailed during the 1979 winter crop growing season, has not been severe enough to cause much damage to the summer grain crop. The winter wheat area probably declined slightly as lower yield areas were taken out of cultivation. Increased acreage of higher yielding early rice should help offset the decline in the winter wheat area. Although the size of the agricultural harvest will depend largely on the weather, a number of factors controlled by the Chinese will continue to have a Confidential favorable impact on production. With almost half of the nation's farmland under some form of irrigation, China's ability to resist drought is good. Increased availability of modern inputs also will boost produc- tion. The use of fertilizer, although not rising as fast as in 1978 and 1979, should increase by at least 1 million tons nutrient weight. The use of other agricultural chemicals and improved seeds also will rise. New agricultural policies are providing a positive economic atmosphere that should improve field management. Finally, the encouragement of private activities and procurement price increases should help raise livestock and sideline products production while specialization will aid industrial crop production. Trade in 1980. Agricultural trade during 1980 probably will show an increase over 1979. Grain imports are projected at 11 million tons, with over 6 million tons already having been purchased (see figure 1). The 40,000-ton increase in domestic cotton production during 1979 will not meet the rising needs of the textile industry and cotton imports could reach a record 1 million tons in 1980. The fourth-quarter surge in soybean imports carried over into 1980 and points to record level imports. Sugar and vegetable oil imports should remain near their 1979 level. Agricultural exports should expand at rates below the 1979 increase and below the total export growth rate in 1980. 6 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11S00229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Confidential Increases in agricultural exports will be hampered by limited international markets and increasing domestic demand. Long-Term Prospects. The rapid output increases of 1978 and 1979 are unlikely to be repeated in the next few years. Fertilizer supplies will not increase as rapidly as during the 1977-79 period because China has neither purchased new large foreign fertilizer plants nor constructed new large domestically designed plants.' Increases in irrigated areas also will be slow and expensive. The new agricultural policies should increase incentives for production and lead to greater efficiency in allocation of resources, but will not raise output of major crops substantially unless more means of production are provided. It is, therefore, not surprising that Xu Dixin, a leading Chinese econouli_ recentl antiganolLthatli_g_s_e oal of rqducing-400, million tons of grain in 1985 had been ushed back to 1,229,jhe revised goal, which will require an annual increase of 1.7 percent, is well within the nation's grasp. 'During 1977-79, the growth rate was boosted by the coming on stream of 13 large plants purchased in 1972. 7 Confidential 25X1 25X1 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Confidential China: Imports of Grain by Source Million Metric Tons United States CI Other CI Argentina El Australia CI Canada 4.7 0.5 0.3 2.0 1.9 3.1 0.1 3.0 4.6 0.9 3.7 7.6 4.3 0.1 08 2.4 6.8 2.8 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.8 3.5 0.2 1.4 1.9 2.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 6.9 0.8 3.0 3.1 9.4 3.3 0.2 0.2 2.4 3.3 10.9 11.0 4.5 4.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 2.7 1966- 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 801 70 Annual Average 1 projected. 0.5 0.5 3.0 2.5 582135 5-80 CIA Confidential 8 05X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Confidential China: 1979 Grain Harvest Figure 2 Record harvest* Harvest increase Harvest decline *Provincial claims indicate record output in 14 provinces in 1979, although a national claim stated records were obtained in only 11 provinces. Hong Kong (U.K) Macao (Port.) 25X1 627215 5-80 9 Confidential Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Confidential Appendix A China: 1979 Grain Production, by Province Provincial Level Unit Reported Output Source National Record, up 27.3 million tons to 332.115 million FBIS, 30 April 1980, p. L3 tons Anhui Record, up 1.2 million tons to 16 million tons FBIS, 28 December 1979, p. L19 FBIS, 3 January 1980, p. 03 Beijing Down 6 percent to 1.7 million tons FBIS, 14 December 1979, p. RI Fujian Record, up 4.35 percent FBIS, 2 February 1979, p. GI People's Daily, 30 December 1979 Gansu Decline FBIS, 6 December 1979, p. T1 Guangdong Up 750,000 tons to 17 million tons FBIS, 20 December 1979, p. U2 Guangxi Record, up 8 percent FBIS, 2 April 1980, p. P4 Guizhou Decline FBIS, 17 January 1980, p. Q2 Hebei Record, up 200,000 tons to over 17 million tons FBIS, 4 January 1980, p. R8 Heilongjiang Down 500,000 tons to 14.5 million tons FBIS, 28 December 1979, p. SI FBIS, 25 January 1980, p. SI Henan Up 5 percent People's Daily, 30 December 1979 Hubei Hunan Record, up 750,000 tons to over 18 million tons FBIS, 16 January 1980, p. PI-P2 Record, up 6.3 percent Jiangsu Jiangxi Record, up 1.25 million tons to 24 million tons Record, up 1.5 million tons to 12.4 million tons FBIS 14 August 1979, p. P13 SWB, FE/W1078/A/6, 16 April 1980 FBIS, 18 December 1979, p.01 FBIS, 9 January 1980, p. 05 FBIS, 19 March 1980, p. 04 Jilin Down to 9 million tons FBIS, 20 February 1980, p. S7 Liaoning Down to 10.1 million tons FBIS, 2 April 1980, p. S8 Nei Monggol Up to 5 million tons FBIS, 27 December 1979, p. R6 Shaanxi Record, up 6.2 percent to 8.5 million tons FBIS, 17 December 1979, p. Ti FBIS, 28 December 1979, p. T2 Shandong Record, up 550,000 tons to 23 million tons FBIS, 28 December 1979, p. L19 Shanghai "Close to 1978 level" Jiefang Ribao, 31 December 1979 Shanxi Sichuan Up 8 percent Record, up 1 million tons to 32 million tons SWB, FE/W1078/A/6,16 April 1980 FBIS, 28 December 1979, p. L19 FBIS, 8 April 1980, p. Q3 Tianjin Record, up by more than 10 percent to over FBIS, 9 January 1980, p. R4 1.3 million tons FBIS, 13 February 1980, p. R4 Xinjiang Record, up 4.8 percent to 2.6 million tons FBIS, 25 January 1979, p. M3 FBIS, 10 April 1980, p. T2 Xizang Yunnan Zhejiang Down by a large margin Decline Record, up 800,000 tons to over 15 million tons FBIS, 4 December 1979, p. Q2 SWB, FE/W1071/A/7, 27 February 1980 FBIS, 20 December 1979, p. 012 SWB, FE/W1072/A/14, 5 March 1980 0 11 Confidential 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Appendix B China: 1979 Oilseed Production, by Province Provincial Level Unit Reported Output Source National Up 1.22 million tons to 6.435 million tons FBIS, 30 April 1980, p. L3. Anhui Record, up 82,000 tons to 432,000 tons FBIS, 27 December 1979, p. 04 FBIS, 18 January 1980, p. 04 FBIS, 9 November 1979, p.01 Fujian Up 57 percent People's Daily, 30 December 1979 Guangdong Record, up 8 percent JPRS, 75126, 13 February 1980, p. 16 SWB, FE/W1072/A/8, 5 March 1980 Guangxi Up 30 percent FBIS, 14 September 1979, p. 05 Hebei Up 23 percent FBIS, 16 January 1980, p. R1 Heilongjiang Henan Up to 45,000 tons SWB, FE/W1072/A/9, 5 March 1980 Up 60 percent to 385,000 tons FBIS, 28 January 1980, p. P2 SWB, FE/W1072/A/10, 5 March 1980 Hubei Record, up 58,000 tons to 295,000 tons FBIS, 16 January 1980, p. P2 JPRS, 74971, 21 January 1980, p. 57 Jiangsu Jiangxi Record, up 16.5 percent or more than 500 tons JPRS, 75126, 13 February 1980, p. 28 Up 20 percent FBIS, 9 January 1980, p. 05 Liaoning Increase FBIS, 20 November 1979, p. S4 Nei Monggol Up 42 percent to 185,000 tons FBIS, 16 January 1980, p. R2 Shaanxi Up 57 percent to 88,500 tons FBIS, 28 December 1979, p. T2 Shandong Peanut production up 100,000 tons FBIS, 19 December 1979, p. 011 Shanxi Sichuan Up 45.4 percent Up 11.4 percent SWB, FE/W1078/A/6, 16 April 1980 FBIS, 8 April 1980, p. Q3 Tianjin Xinjiang Up to over 13,000 tons JPRS, 75186, 22 February 1980, p. 34 Up 35 percent to 98.4 thousand tons FBIS, 10 April 1980, p. T2 Zhejiang Record rapeseed FBIS, 20 December 1979, p. 012 13 Confidential 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 RAMIIILIal Appendix C China: 1979 Cotton Production, by Province Provincial Level Unit Reported Output Source National Up 40,000 tons to 2.207 million tons FBIS, 9 April 1980, p. Li Fujian Up 57 percent People's Daily, 30 December 1979 Hebei Up 8 percent FBIS, 16 January 1980, p. R1 Henan Equal to 1978, but 8-percent increase in yields People's Daily, 30 December 1979 Hubei Up 85,000 tons to 450,000 tons Xinhua, 22 December 1979, p. 3 FBIS, 16 January 1980, p. P2 Hunan Up 26 percent FBIS, 10 April 1980, p. P3 Jiangsu Record, up 40,000 tons to 500,000 tons People's Daily, 25 December 1979 Jiangxi Up 25 percent FBIS, 9 January 1980, p. 05 Liaoning Increase FBIS, 20 November 1979, p. S4 Shaanxi Up to 106,500 tons FBIS, 28 December 1979, p. T2 Shandong Up 6,000 tons to 160,000 tons FBIS, 19 December 1979, p. 011 FBIS, 8 January 1980, p. 08 Sichuan Up 30 percent over 1976 FBIS, 4 January 1980, p. 01 Xinjiang Record, up 28 percent FBIS, 11 January 1980, p. T3 Zhejiang Decline FBIS, 18 December 1979,9. 08 15 Confidential 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Confidential Appendix D Production of Selected Agricultural Products Amount Percent Increase' 1957 1977 1978 1979 Average Annual Increase from 1957 to 1977 Increase from 1977 to 1978 Increase from 1978 to 1979 Grain (million metric tons) 191.0 282.8 304.8 332.1 2.0 7.8 9.0 Cotton (million metric tons) 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.2 5.8 1.8 Oil-bearing crops (million metric tons) 3.82 4.0 5.2 6.4 0.3 30.0 23.3 Sugarcane (million metric tons) 10.4 17.8 21.1 21.5 2.7 18.9 1.9 Sugar beets (million metric tons) 1.5 2.5 2.7 3.1 2.5 10.0 15.0 Jute, ambary, hemp (million metric tons) 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 2.8 26.4 0.1 Silk cocoons (thousand metric tons) 112.5 216.0 228.0 271.0 3.3 5.6 18.9 Tea (thousand metric tons) 111.5 252.0 268.0 277.0 4.2 6.3 3.4 Aquatic products (million metric tons) 3.1 4.7 4.7 4.3 2.1 -0.9 -7.5 Hogs (million head at yearend) 127.8 291.8 301.3 319.7 4.2 3.3 6.1 Sheep and goats (million head at yearend) 98.6 161.4 169.9 183.1 2.5 5.3 7.8 Large animals (million head at yearend) 83.5 93.8 93.9 94.6 0.6 0.1 0.7 Population 3 (million persons at yearend) 649.3 994.8 1,010.1 1,024.9 2.2 1.5 1.5 ' Based on unrounded numbers. 'Includes peanuts, sesame, and rapeseed only. 'Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, Foreign Demographic Analysis Division. 17 Confidential 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0 Confidential 0' 'ar4? Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2014/04/21 : CIA-RDP11500229R000100170001-0