NIE 53-59: THE OUTLOOK FOR AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79R01012A014100010018-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 30, 2013
• Sequence Number: 18
• Publication Date: June 4, 1959
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
MEMORANDUM FOR:
4 June 1959
Mr. Allen Evans, State (INR)
Colonel J. W. Strain, USA (ACSI)
Captain A. D. Kilmartin, USN (ONI)
Colonel R. M. Lawson, USAF (AFCIN 2B2)
Colonel Hugh D. Wallace, USAF (J-2, The Joint Staff)
Director of Operational
Services, NSA
Mr. Randolph V. Zander, Defense (Oso)
SUBJECT : NIE 53r59: THE OUTLOOK FOR AFGHANISTAN
1. The attached terms of reference were agreed on at the
meeting of the USIB representatives on Thursday, 4 June.
2. All agencies are invited to contribute to any section
within their competence to do so.
3. It is requested that contributions be received in this
office by the close ofbusiness on Monday., 27 July.
DISTRIBUTION D
/?;10'
CHESTER L. COOPER
Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
STAT '
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CENTRAL INT,ELLIGENCE AGENCY
SUBJECT: TERMS OF REF
ARGWANISTAN
D4 DI
4 June 1959
CE: NIE 53-59: T12 OUTLOOK FOR
THE PRCOLEM
To estimate prebable developments in Afghanistan's internal
affairs and international position over the next few years.
TIE SCOPE
The purpose of this paper will be primarily to update NIE 53-54,
19 October 1954, "The Outlook for Afghanistan"; and NIE 53-56,
10 January 1956, "Probable Developments in Afghanistan's Inter-
national Position." We have in mind, a relatively short paper
which will examine Afghanistan's basic political and economic
structure and international position.
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QUESTIONS -BEARING ON THE PROBLEM
I. INTRODUCTION
A. Have there been any significant changes in the internal
power structure in Afghanistan since the earlier N1E's? In
Afghanistan's position vis.a.vis the Bloc or the West?
A. Political
1. Haw stable is the present regime? What are its
main components? What are their relations with each other?
Is Dnud likely to continue as prime minister? What are the
most likely alternatives to him?
2. What are the present ruling group's long-term objectives
for Afghanistan? Is it likely that the present leaders will
attempt to introduce gradual political or social reforms? What
is the likely impact of such reforms -- both in the tribal and
settled areas?
3. What are the attitudes of the major elements within
Afghanistan toward the present regime and what are their
capabilities to influence it? Comment specifically on the
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tribes, the younger, educated middle class, the government
bureaucracy, business elements
religious leaders, and the military and security
forces. Which of these elements are most likely to cooperate
with each other? On what issues?
4. Is there any significant indigenous Communist strength?
If ea, through which groups and by what means is it exercised?
Which elements within the government and which other groups are
likely to be most susceptible to Communist influence?
S. What have been the past and probably future effects of
external events on internal developments?
6. Whatdevelopments (internal or external) might lead to
fragmentation of the country and what is the likelihood of such
developments?
B. The Role of the Military and Security Forces
1. What are the present and probable future capabilities
of the armed forces vis-a-vis the tribes? For other internal
security duties? Against Pakistan and Iran? How much Soviet
militaty aid has been obtained and to what degree has it been
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absorbed? How dependent are the Afghan armed forces on such aid?
Are the Afghans likely to seek additional military aid?
/Under what circumstances? Haw much and what kind? What role is
the armed forces likely to play in determining future developments
in the country?
2. What is the attitude of various elements in the mili-
tary toward the present regime? Comment specifically on the
senior officers, the junior officers, the enlisted men, the
gendarmerie, and the security police. What inpact has Soviet
training and equipment had on the attitudes of the armed forces?
How much influence does the traditional military connection with
Turkey have? On What issues might various elements in the min..
tary and security forces unite? Under what circumstances might
they act independently of the regime?
3. What is the attitude of tribal and other elements in
the country toward the military?
Q. Economic
1. Has the Afghan economic situation changed significantly
in the last few years? Are major changes likely in the future?
Comment specifically on transr,ortation, agricultural production,
industrial development, foreign trade (including transit routes),
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foreign exchange holdings, capability for servicing foreign
debts, defense spending, and domestic inflation.
2. What is the present regime's attitude toward economic
development? What are its Objectives? How practical is the .
present economic development program? To what degree is it
likely to be implemented?
3. How much foreign aid has Afghanistan received from
Western sources and what has been the Impact on the economy?
What types of aid have been sought? What types most readily
accepted? Most effective? What are the most likely sources
of aid in the future?
4. How much aid has Afghanistan received from the Sino-
Soviet Bloc? What has been the impact of such aid? To what
extent and in what fields ore the Soviets likely to be able to
exert economic pressure on Afghanistan in the future?
III. EXTERNAL RELATIONS
A. Foreign Policy Aims
19 What are the main foreign policy objeciii7es of the Afghan
Government and how does it hope to achieve them? What are its
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chances for success? What differences of view are there within
the government and among other groups?
D. Relations with the Sino-Soviet Bloc
1. What are probable Soviet objectives vis-a-vis Afghan-
istan? What tactics are the Soviets likely to use to achieve
these Objectives. Row might these compare with Soviet tactics
and objectives toward other states in the area?
2. What is the esent regime's attitude toward the
USSR and Communist China? What is its reaction to Chinese
Communist action in Tibet, the spread of Communist influence
in Iraq, and Communist attacks on the present Governments of
Pakistan and Iran? How has Sino-Soviet aid affected Afghan
foreign policy? What are present or possible future areas
of friction in Afghan relations with the Bloc?
C. Relations with the West
1. What is the regime's attitude toward the West, especially
the US? What tte the most likely sources of friction? Of
cooperation? What is the outlook for Afghan relations with the
UK, West Germany, and the smaller Western European nations?
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D. Relations with Neighboring States
1. What is the regime's attitude toward the Ayub govern..
ment in, Pakistan? The Aya government's attitude toward it?
What are the intentions of both Afghan and Pakistani Governments
in the Pushtunistnn dispute? What are the prospects for solu-
tion? What would be the effect of a solution on Pakistani-
Afghan relations? On Afghanistan's attitude toward the West
and the Bloc? Are Afghan economic relations with Pakistan
likely to expand significantly? What would be the effect on
Afghan relations with Pakistan of a major improvement in
Pakistani-Indian relations? What would be the effect of a
major deterioration of internal stability in Pakistan?
2, What are the prospects for Afghan relations with Iran?
with India? with Turkey? with other Afro-Asian nations?
E. Popular Reaction to Foreign Policy
1. Is there any significant public support for or
opposition to the present regime's foreign policy? Among
which elements? On what issues? What would be the most
likely cause of a major change in Afghan foreign policy?
What direction would such a change take?
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